68% Want US to Side With Ukraine; 5% with Russia; 15% Neither

Posted on March 4, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters want the United States to side with Ukraine in the current conflict. A Scott Rasmussen national survey finds that 5% want the U.S. to side with Russia. Fifteen percent (15%) don’t want our country taking sides and 12% are not sure.

Among those who prefer policies like those of Bernie Sanders, 74% want the U.S. to side with Russia. That view is shared by 74% of traditional Democrats, 73% of traditional Republicans, and 68% of those who prefer-Trump like policies.

Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left nearly a decade ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on March 1-2, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

53% Believe America’s Legal System Cares More About Criminals Than Victims

Posted on March 1, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters believe that America’s legal system cares more about criminals than victims. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% disagree and 12% are not sure.

The view that our legal system cares more about criminals than victims is shared by 55% of Hispanic voters, 53% of White voters, and 50% of Black voters.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Republicans hold that view along with 54% of Independent voters and 45% of Democrats.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on February 15-16, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

23% Believe Defunding the Police Will Lead to Less Crime and Stronger Communities

Posted on March 1, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-three percent (23%) believe that defunding the police will lead to less crime and stronger communities. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 68% disagree.

Those totals include 12% who Strongly Agree and 50% who Strongly Disagree.

The view that defunding the police will produce such positive benefits is rejected by 80% of Republicans, 65% of Independents, and 56% of Democrats.

An earlier Number of the Day noted that 80% see police officers as generally good people doing a difficult job to the best of their ability.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

67% Believe Biological Males Who Identify as Women Have Unfair Advantage in Women’s Sports

Posted on March 1, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to competitive sports, 67% of voters believe biological males who identify as women have an unfair advantage over biological females. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 17% disagree and 16% are not sure.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans believe such transgender athletes have an unfair advantage. So do 65% of Independent voters and 57% of Democrats.

Overall, 21% believe that biological males who identify as women should be allowed to compete in women’s sports.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on February 24-27, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

50% Think US Will Still Be World’s Leading Superpower in 20 Years or So

Posted on February 28, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters consider it likely that the United States will still be the world’s leading superpower in 20 or 25 years. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% consider it unlikely and 14% are not sure.

Those totals include 22% who consider it Very Likely and 7% who think it’s Not at All Likely.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of men think it’s likely that the U.S. will remain the world’s leading superpower. So do 52% of women.

Among voters under 35, 63% share that optimistic view. Fifty-three percent (53%) of seniors do as well.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on February 22-23, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

68% Believe Invasion of Ukraine Will Lead to Higher Gas Prices in U.S.

Posted on February 25, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will lead to higher gas prices in the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 10% disagree and 22% are not sure.

The survey also found that 68% believe the invasion will make supply chain problems worse. On that point, 13% disagree and 19% are not sure.

On both questions, older voters are more likely than younger voters to make a connection between the invasion and economic consequences for the U.S.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

73% believe home schooling is a good option

Posted on February 22, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters believe home schooling is a good option for parents who have the time and ability to provide it. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% disagree and 6% are not sure.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Republicans believe home schooling is a good option. So do 74% of Independent voters and 68% of Democrats.

The survey also found that 62% believe private schools provide a better education than public schools. Twenty-five percent (25%) disagree.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on February 17-19, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

84% believe parents should be able to see all curriculum plans and materials

Posted on February 22, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters believe that parents should be able to see all curriculum plans and materials for classes their children take. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 12% disagree and 5% are not sure.

Fifty-six percent (56%) strongly support curriculum transparency while 5% are strongly opposed.

The survey found that 44% of voters believe many schools teach a radical ideology that would be offensive to parents, Thirty-six percent (36%) disagree while 19% are not sure.

Another factor in the support for transparency comes from the fact that 68% believe most public schools have lowered standards rather than demanding more from students.

Most voters (56%) believe public school boards do not respect the role of parents. On that point, 34% disagree.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

16% Believe Students Will Never Fully Recover From Pandemic School Closings

Posted on February 22, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixteen percent (16%) of voters believe students will never recover academically and socially from the pandemic and school closings. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that most voters (56%) believe they will be caught up within a year or two.

Overall, 73% of voters believe students were harmed socially by the lack of in-person learning. Sixty-seven percent (67%) believe the students were hurt academically.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe students suffered academically. That view is shared by 65% of Independent voters and 62% of Democrats.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

77% Say Schools Should Be Open for In-person Learning and Leading a Return to Normalcy

Posted on February 21, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters agree that schools should now be open for in-person learning and leading a return to normalcy. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 16% disagree and 7% are not sure.

Those totals include 44% who Strongly Agree and 4% who Strongly Disagree.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans agree that schools should now be leading a return to normalcy. That view is shared by 76% of Democrats and 70% of Independent voters.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

80% See Police Officers as Good People Doing a Difficult Job

Posted on February 17, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty percent (80%) of voters see police officers as generally good people doing a difficult job to the best of their ability. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that view is shared by 85% of White voters, 72% of Hispanic voters, and 60% of Black voters.

Just 16% of all voters disagree with that assessment.

The survey also found that 56% believe America’s biggest cities are being destroyed by prosecutors who refuse to follow the law.

By a 53% to 35% margin, voters believe that America’s legal system cares more about criminals than victims.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

61% Believe Public Health Officials Followed the Politics, Not the Science

Posted on February 13, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

During the pandemic, 61% of voters believe leading public health officials followed the politics, not the science. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 26% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe public health officials followed politics rather than science. So do 56% of Independent voters and 50% of Democrats.

The survey also found that 57% of voters believe vaccine mandates made supply chain problems worse. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree.

Fifty percent (50%) believe government mandates made the pandemic worse than it had to be. Forty percent (40%) disagree with that assessment.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on February 10-13, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

59% Say It’s Time to Put Pandemic Behind Us, Return to Normal Life

Posted on February 13, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe it is time to put the pandemic behind us and return to normal life. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% disagree and 8% are not sure.

Those totals include 37% who Strongly Agree it is time for a return to normalcy and 13% who Strongly Disagree.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans are ready to put the pandemic behind us along with 58% of Independents.

Democrats are evenly divided: 46% say it’s time for us to return to normal life while 48% disagree.

Data released earlier showed a sharp growth in optimism about the pandemic. Forty percent (40%) believe the worst is behind us while 32% fear it is still to come.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

40% Believe Worst of Pandemic Is Behind Us

Posted on February 13, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty percent (40%) of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% believe the worst is yet to come while 28% are not sure.

Those figures represent a dramatic improvement over the past few weeks. In late January, just 29% thought the worst was behind us and 44% feared it was still to come. Optimism today is at the highest level since November.

The survey also found that 45% think the Biden Administration will wait too long to re-open society. Thirty-six percent (36%) take the opposite view and think they will re-open too quickly.

Most Democrats (58%) worry about re-opening too quickly while most Republicans (62%) worry about waiting too long. Independent voters, by a 45% to 29% margin, think the Administration will wait too long.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

54% Believe More Freedom Leads to More Equality

Posted on February 11, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters believe that more freedom leads to more equality. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 25% disagree and 20% are not sure.

The survey also found that 41% of voters do not see a conflict between freedom and equality. Thirty-five percent (35%) believe that freedom is more important, 19% say equality matter more, and 6% are not sure.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of both Republicans and Democrats do not see a conflict between the two ideals. Republicans, by a 49% to 10% margin, believe freedom is more important. Democrats, however, are evenly divided. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say freedom is more important while 27% say equality is the top priority.

Among Independent voters, 44% don’t see a conflict; 28% say freedom is more important and 20% say equality matters more.

Question 1:

Generally speaking, is there a conflict between freedom and equality?

59% Yes

23% No

18% Not sure

Question 2:

[If “Yes” to question 1] Which is more important: freedom or equality?

41% No conflict

35% Freedom

19% Equality

6% Not sure

Question 3:

Does more individual freedom lead to more equality or to more inequality?

23% Much more equality

31% Somewhat more equality

18% Somewhat more inequality

7% Much more inequality

20% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on February 8-9, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

54% Say It’s Important to Have a Black Woman On the Supreme Court

Posted on February 8, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters think it is important for a Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% say it’s not important and 8% are not sure.

Those totals include 29% who say it’s Very Important and 20% who say it’s Not at All Important.

However, while seeing the goal as important, just 35% agree with President Biden’s plan to only consider Black women when making his Supreme Court nomination. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Republicans disagree with Biden’s approach. So do 56% of Independent voters. However, 60% of Democrats take the opposite view and support the president’s decision to only consider Black women.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from February 1-2, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

26% Want to Expand the Supreme Court

Posted on February 8, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters want Congress to pass a law increasing the number of Supreme Court justices. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 57% disagree and believe the Supreme Court should continue to have nine justices. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.

By a 76% to 15% margin, Republicans want to continue with nine justices on the Court. Independents, by a 49% to 21% margin, agree. Democrats are evenly divided.

Methodology

68% Favor Providing Mental Health Services for Women Who Have Abortion

Posted on February 8, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters favor a government program that would provide mental health services for women who have an abortion and regret it later. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% are opposed and 12% are not sure.

Those totals include 38% who Strongly Favor such an approach and 9% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats favor providing mental health services for women who regret having an abortion. So do 66% of Independent voters and 62% of Republicans.

Seventy percent (70%) of White voters favor the proposal along with 65% of Hispanic voters and 62% of Black voters.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from February 3-6, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

54% of Registered Voters Say They Will Definitely Vote in Midterm Elections

Posted on February 7, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Registered Voters say they will Definitely vote in this year’s midterm elections. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that an additional 18% are Very Likely to vote.

Sixty percent (60%) of White voters say they will Definitely vote. So do 39% of Hispanic voters and 33% of Black voters.

Among Republicans and those who lean to the Republican party, 65% say they will Definitely vote. Among Democrats and those who lean to the Democratic party, that figure is 57%. Among Independents who don’t lean towards either party, just 29% will Definitely vote

oters say they will Definitely vote in this year’s midterm elections. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that an additional 18% are Very Likely to vote.

Sixty percent (60%) of White voters say they will Definitely vote. So do 39% of Hispanic voters and 33% of Black voters.

Methodology

38% Say Supreme Court is Most Trusted Branch of Government

Posted on February 4, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters see the Supreme Court as the most trusted branch of government. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 16% place their trust in the presidency and 13% say Congress is the most trusted. Thirty-three percent (33%) are not sure.

On the flip side, 37% say the presidency is the least trusted. Thirty-four percent (34%) see Congress that way and 12% name the Supreme Court as least trustworthy. On this question, 17% are not sure.

As on many topics, there is a significant partisan divide:

A majority of Republicans name the Supreme Court as the most trusted branch (51%) and the presidency as least trusted (61%).
A solid plurality of Democrats (46%) say Congress is the least trustworthy. However, they are somewhat more divided on the question of which branch of government they trust the most: 35% say the presidency while 26% name the Supreme Court.
As for Independent voters, 40% are not sure which branch they trust the most. Thirty-six percent (36%) name the Supreme Court, 12% say Congress, and 11% say the presidency. Independents are divided on who they trust the least: 36% say Congress and 32% the presidency.

Methodology

21% Say Status in Life Determined by Racial and Ethnic Heritage

Posted on February 3, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters believe that your status in life is determined by your racial and ethnic heritage. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 66% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Thirty percent (30%) of Democrats believe racial and ethnic heritage determines status in life. That view is shared by 18% of Independents and and 14% of Republicans. However, most Republicans (76%), Democrats (57%), and Independents (64%) reject that idea.

The survey also found that 72% believe their identity as an American is more important than their racial and ethnic heritage. Eighteen percent (18%) disagree. Those figures include 44% who Strongly Agree and 7% who Strongly Disagree.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from January 24-25, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

29% Believe Worst of the Pandemic Is Behind Us

Posted on February 2, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s way down from 46% in November and 56% last May. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 44% believe the worst is yet to come while 28% are not sure.

However, 49% of voters are now more worried about unnecessary government restrictions and lockdowns than getting COVID. A slightly smaller number–42%– are more worried about getting COVID.

Most Republicans (65%) and Independents (54%) are more worried about unnecessary government restrictions. Most Democrats (64%) are more worried about getting COVID.

Methodology

29% Have Never Been Tested for COVID

Posted on February 1, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters have never been tested for COVID. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that another 29% have been tested more than twice. In between are 40% who have been tested once or twice.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Republicans have never been tested along with 28% of Independent voters and 26% of Democrats.

At the other extreme, 33% of Independents have been tested more than twice along with 32% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans.

Overall, 21% of voters say they have tested positive for COVID.

Three percent (3%) of voters say they have been hospitalized with COVID and another 1% say they had Very Serious symptoms. Five percent (5%) say their symptoms were Somewhat Serious while 13% reported that their symptoms were not serious.

Methodology

67% Believe Decline of Family is Hurting American Growth and Prosperity

Posted on January 31, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters believe the decline of the family is harming American growth and prosperity. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 23% disagree and 10% are not sure.

Those totals include 33% who Strongly Agree and 10% who Strongly Disagree.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Republicans believe the decline of the family is harming American growth and prosperity. So do 63% of Democrats and 63% of Independent voters

That view is shared by 78% of Senior Citizens and 55% of voters under 35.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from January 20-21, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

65% Believe Growing Up Without a Father at Home Places Children at a Significant Disadvantage

Posted on January 28, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters believe children who grow up without their father at home are at a significant disadvantage in life. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% disagree and 5% are not sure.

Those totals include 28% who Strongly Agree that growing up without a father at home is a disadvantage and 12% who Strongly Disagree.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe those without a father at home are disadvantaged. So do 60% of Democrats and 58% of Independents.

The survey also found 49% believe it is the responsibility of the community to step up and help support a fatherless child. Forty-three percent (43%) disagree.

Forty-two percent (42%) believe it is the responsibility of government to step up and help support such children. Forty-nine percent (49%) disagree.

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Methodology

87% Say Strong Family Ties Important for a Healthy Society

Posted on January 27, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

To create a healthy society, 87% of voters believe it is important to have strong family ties with both parents involved in raising their children. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 8% disagree and 5% are not sure.

Those totals include 68% who say it is Very Important and 3% who say it is Not at All Important.

When it comes to raising children and teaching core values, 84% believe parents should bear primary responsibility. Eleven percent (11%) believe it should be the community at large and 5% are not sure.

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Methodology

7% Do Not Believe The Holocaust Happened

Posted on January 26, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters recognize that, when Germany was run by Adolf Hitler, their government systematically and intentionally killed approximately 6 million Jewish men, women, and children. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 7% do not believe it happened. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure.

Among voters over 65, just 3% deny the reality of the Holocaust. However, among those under 35, 12% do not believe it happened.

The survey also found that 53% believe anti-Semitism is a serious problem in America today. Thirty-three percent (33%) do not see it as a serious problem.

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Methodology

36% Believe Benefits of Government Worth the Costs; 40% Disagree

Posted on January 25, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters believe the benefits of government are worth the costs. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and 24% are not sure.

Six months ago, by a 41% to 33% margin, a plurality said the benefits were worth the cost.

It is interesting to note that the decline occurred primarily among those who prefer traditional Republican policies. In both surveys, Democrats tended to believe the benefits were worth the cost. Also in both surveys, those who prefer Trump-like policies strongly believed the cost was too high.

However, six months ago, traditional Republicans thought the benefits were worth it by a 41% to 32% margin. Now, traditional Republicans take the opposite view by a 48% to 24% margin.

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Methodology

42% Believe America’s Best Days Still to Come; 34% Disagree

Posted on January 21, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters believe that America’s best days are still to come. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% disagree and believe America’s best days have come and gone. Twenty-four percent (24%) are not sure.

This assessment is far more pessimistic than the perceptions in November 2020. On the eve of the last presidential election, 61% believe the nation’s best days were still to come while just 20% thought they had come and gone.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Democrats believe the best is yet to come. That view is shared by 38% of Republicans and 31% of Independents.

Data released earlier showed that 65% of voters believe the United States is more divided and polarized today than at any previous time in history.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on January 18-19, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

55% Favor US Joining NATO Allies in Sending Troops to Protect Ukraine; 21% Disagree

Posted on January 20, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

If all NATO countries send troops to protect Ukraine, 55% of voters believe the United States should also send troops. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 21% disagree and 24% are not sure.

However, just 33% believe the United States should go it alone while 32% are opposed.

The survey, conducted just before President Biden’s press conference, found that 65% believed it likely that Russia would invade Ukraine.

After being informed that Russia has warned against a future expansion of NATO, 46% believe NATO should invite Ukraine to join the alliance. Fifteen percent (15%) are opposed and 39% are not sure.

In considering these numbers, it is important to recognize how little voters have been focusing on this issue. Only 14% of voters are following news stories on the topic Very Closely. Another 37% say they are following it Somewhat Closely.

More broadly, 81% of voters believe it is important for the United States to play a leading role in global affairs and international policy.

Rather than trying to maintain our status as the world’s leading superpower, 27% think the United States should share global leadership with China and Russia.

Overall, 42% of voters have confidence in President Biden as Commander in Chief. Fifty-four percent (54%) do not. These figures generally reflect the president’s job approval ratings.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

53% Have Confidence in the U.S. System of Elections

Posted on January 17, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters are confident that American elections are conducted in a manner that ensures all votes are counted and that the proper winners are declared in each election. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% lack such confidence and 7% are not sure.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats currently express confidence in our system of elections. That confidence is shared by 48% of Independent voters and 33% of Republicans. Polling conducted over the past several decades has consistently shown that voters have more confidence in election results when their team wins the White House.

Despite the tepid confidence in our election system, just 21% of voters are following news about election reform Very Closely. That total includes 30% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans and 15% of Independent voters.

Data released earlier showed that 80% favor requiring voters to show a photo ID before casting a ballot. Additionally, 85% also favor a requirement for states to clean voter rolls by removing people who have died or moved from the voter registration lists. Another popular reform–supported by 76% of voters– is to requiring all ballots to be received by Election Day.

All three of those reforms are favored by a solid majority of every measured demographic group.

Data released earlier found that 50% believe the top priority for election reform should be making it harder to cheat. Thirty-eight percent (38%) think the focus should be on making it easier to vote.

80% Favor Requiring Photo ID Before Casting a Ballot

Posted on January 17, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-percent (80%) of voters favor requiring voters to show a photo ID before casting a ballot. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 85% also favor a requirement for states to clean voter rolls by removing people who have died or moved from the voter registration lists. Additionally, 76% favor requiring all ballots to be received by Election Day.

All three reforms are favored by a solid majority of every measured demographic group.

Support for photo ID requirements comes from 91% of Republicans, 77% of Democrats, and 75% of Independent voters.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of White voters favor photo ID requirements along with 71% of Hispanic voters and 65% of Black voters.

On Election Reform, 50% Say Priority is Making it Harder to Cheat; 38% Say Easier to Vote

Posted on January 17, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters believe that the goal of election reform should be to create a system where it is “easy to vote and hard to cheat.” A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 10% disagree and 5% are not sure.

While there is broad agreement on the objective, voters are divided on which half of the objective deserves a higher priority at this time. Fifty percent (50%) say making it hard to cheat is the top priority while 38% take the opposite view.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans think making it harder to cheat is the top goal. Among Democrats, 67% believe the priority should be making it easier to vote. As for Independent voters, 48% say making it harder to cheat is more important while 35% believe reformers should focus on making it easier to vote.

Overall, 33% of voters trust the GOP more than Democrats on election reform while 30% have more trust in Democrats. Twenty percent (20%) don’t trust either party while 12% trust both equally.

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted January 11-12, 2022. The Margin of Sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

57% Favor Making Trump Tax Cuts Permanent; 24% Opposed

Posted on January 11, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

During the Trump administration, Congress passed temporary tax cuts for businesses and families. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters favor making the Trump tax cuts permanent. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% are oppose and 19% are not sure.

The totals include 31% who Strongly Favor making the tax cuts permanent and 14% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans favor making the Trump tax cuts permanent. Independent voters, by a 45% to 21% margin, agree. Democrats are evenly divided.

Younger voters are less supportive of tax cuts than their elders. Still, by a 47% to 26% margin, voters under 35 would like to see the Trump tax cuts made permanent.

Support for making the tax cuts permanent is found among 60% of Red State voters, 57% of Purple State voters, and 54% of Blue State voters.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Question:

During the Trump administration, Congress passed temporary tax cuts for businesses and families. A proposal has been made to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

31% Strongly favor

26% Somewhat favor

10% Somewhat oppose

14% Strongly oppose

19% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on January 6-7, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

13% Have Favorable Opinion of Those Who Broke Into Capitol

Posted on January 5, 2022 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirteen percent (13%) of voters have a favorable opinion of those who broke into the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 77% have an unfavorable view.

Among those who prefer policies advocated by former President Trump, just 19% have a favorable opinion of those who broke into the Capitol. Sixty-one percent (61%) offer an unfavorable view.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters consider the assault on the Capitol to be a major threat to democracy. That’s unchanged from last June.

However, 64% of voters believe letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy. That’s up nine points since the June, 2021 survey. The increase may be attributed to concerns about the pandemic response. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters are now more worried about unnecessary government restrictions than they are about getting COVID.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters think it’s Very Likely that democracy in America will end in the next generation or so. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 11% who believe it has already ended. Republicans are significantly more worried about democracy ending than Democrats.

Additionally, 37% of all voters see Democrats as a bigger threat to democracy than Republicans. Twenty-six percent (26%) see Republicans as the bigger threat while 20% think the two parties represent an equal threat to democracy.

Currently, 57% of voters believe that Joe Biden was legitimately elected president in 2020. That’s little different than the 61% who believe Donald Trump was legitimately elected president in 2016. Just 26% of voters believe the proper winner was declared in each of those elections.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters believe activists and politicians in both political parties would steal an election if they could get away with it. Thirty-three percent (33%) disagree.

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Question 1:

Thinking back, do you approve or disapprove of the Trump supporters who broke into the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021?

5% Strongly approve

8% Somewhat approve

14% Somewhat disapprove

63% Strongly disapprove

10% Not sure

Question 2:

Think for a moment about the 74 million people who voted for Donald Trump in 2020. Did most Trump voters support those who occupied the Capitol, or were they opposed to such efforts?

26% Supported

38% Opposed

36% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on January 3-4, 2022. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

54% Recognize That Fewer People Are Working Today Than Before the Pandemic; 21% Mistakenly Believe More People are Working

Posted on December 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters recognize that fewer Americans are working today than before the pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% mistakenly believe more people are working, 11% say about the same number, and 13% are not sure.

Those totals include 9% who think the number of workers today is “Much Higher” and 26% who say “Much Lower.”

Compared to pre-pandemic totals, there are currently 3.9 million fewer Americans with jobs. In February 2020, 152.5 million Americans were employed. Today, 148.6 million have a job. Those figures may understate the shortfall. The population has grown since the pandemic began, which normally lead to an increase in the number of working Americans.

The highest level of misunderstanding is found among voters with a postgraduate degree. Fifty percent (50%) of them mistakenly believe more people are working today. Just 36% recognize that there are actually fewer workers today. A solid majority of those without a college degree have an accurate perception.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans recognize fewer people are working today. So do 58% of Independent voters. Democrats are evenly divided. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of those in President Biden’s party mistakenly believe more people have jobs today; 37% are aware that there are fewer people working today.

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Question:

Immediately prior to the pandemic, 152 million Americans had jobs. Is the number of people with jobs today higher or lower than before the pandemic?

9% Much higher

12% Somewhat higher

11% About the same

28% Somewhat lower

26% Much lower

13% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on December 8-10, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

43% Say Rittenhouse Did Stupid Things, But Is Not a Murderer

Posted on November 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters who have heard of the Rittenhouse trial believe Kyle Rittenhouse did stupid things but is not a murderer. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 25% believe he is a murderer and 13% see him as a hero.

Most Republicans (56%) believe that Rittenhouse did stupid things but is not a murderer. A plurality of Democrats (44%) believe he is a murderer. Among Independent voters, 42% say he did stupid things, 22% say he’s a murderer, and 10% view him as a hero.

Among those who rely upon Fox News, 50% say Rittenhouse did stupid things while 13% see him as a murderer. Those who rely upon CNN are more evenly divided: 37% say he did stupid things and 34% say Rittenhouse is a murderer.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of all voters say they followed news about the trial closely. That includes 27% who followed it Very Closely. At the other extreme, 6% had never heard of the trial and 9% weren’t following it at all.

Among those who had heard of the case, 74% knew that Rittenhouse had been found not guilty of all charges.

People who understood the facts of the case were more likely than others to see Rittenhouse as someone who did stupid things rather than as a murderer. For example, those who mistakenly believe he shot three Black men were evenly divided between whether he was a murderer or someone who did stupid things.

However, among those who knew the shooting victims were not Black, most (54%) believe he did stupid things but was not a murderer. Just 22% of those who knew the reality saw him as a murderer.

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Question 1:

How closely have you followed recent news stories about the trial of Kyle Rittenhouse?

27% Very closely

38% Somewhat closely

17% Not very closely

9% Not at all

6% Never heard of it

2% Not sure

Question 2:

[Asked of those who had heard of the trial] Which of the following best describes the result of the trial?

8% Rittenhouse was found guilty of murder.

74% Rittenhouse was found not guilty of all charges against him.

6% Rittenhouse was found guilty on some of the charges, but not all of them.

12% Not sure

Question 3:

[Asked of those who had heard of the trial] Do you agree or disagree with the outcome of the trial?

34% Strongly agree

22% Somewhat agree

9% Somewhat disagree

18% Strongly disagree

17% Not sure

Question 4:

[Asked of those who had heard of the trial] Which of the following best describes your view of Kyle Rittenhouse?

25% He’s a murderer

13% He’s a hero

43% He made stupid decisions but is not a murderer

20% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on November 22-23, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

50% Say U.S. Should Slow Transition to Electric Vehicles Until Needed Batteries Can Be Produced In Our Own Country

Posted on November 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe that the United States should slow down the transition to electric vehicles until we have the ability produce the needed batteries in our own country. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 16% believe the United States should never transition to electric vehicles.

Only 26% believe the U.S. should transition to electric vehicles as quickly as possible.

Underlying those attitudes is concern about the fact that China is the world’s largest producer of batteries needed for electric vehicles. As America makes the transition to electric cars, 66% of voters are worried that we might be dependent upon China for those batteries. Twenty-six percent (26%) are not worried and 9% are not sure.

Those totals include 34% who are Very Worried and 9% who are Not at All worried.

These attitudes come amidst growing voter concern about China.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters believe the Chinese Government and Chinese Communist Party are a serious threat to the United States. Just 17% disagree and 20% are not sure.
Seventy-three percent (73%) consider it likely that the Chinese government actively covered up its role in the release of the coronavirus.
Sixty-six percent (66%) favor prohibiting the Chinese Government, the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese citizens from purchasing agricultural land located in the United States.
Sixty-two percent (62%) believe it should be against the law for former Members of Congress to lobby on behalf of communist countries.
Sixty-five percent (65%) favor prohibiting the U.S. government from entering into contracts with any entity that relies upon the use of forced labor in China.
Sixty-two percent (62%) believe it should be against the law for companies in the U.S. to purchase or sell any products made by forced labor in Chinese detention camps.

Beyond concerns about China as a threat to our nation, 66% believe it is important for the United States to hold China accountable for its abuse of the Uyghur Muslims. A broader question found that 80% of voters think it is important for the United States to hold China accountable for its use of slave labor and other human rights violations.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe the U.S. system of politics and government is morally superior to China’s. Just 16% disagree.

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Question 1:

China is the world’s largest producer of batteries needed for electric vehicles. As America makes the transition to electric cars, how worried are you that we might be dependent upon China for batteries?

34% Very worried

32% Somewhat worried

17 Not very worried

9% Not at all worried

9% Not sure

Question 2:

Which of the following is closest to your view?

26% The United States should transition to electric vehicles as quickly as possible

50% The United States should slow down the transition to electric vehicles until we have the ability produce the needed batteries in our own country

16% The United States should never transition to electric vehicles

8% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on November 17-18, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

66% Favor Banning China From Purchasing U.S. Agricultural Land

Posted on November 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters favor prohibiting the Chinese Government, the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese citizens from purchasing agricultural land located in the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 18% are opposed and 15% are not sure.

The totals include 44% who Strongly Favor the ban and 7% who are Strongly Opposed.

By a 56% to 24% margin, voters also favor prohibiting federal funding for universities that partner on research projects with the People’s Republic of China.

Those totals include 33% who Strongly Favor the proposal and 10% who are Strongly Opposed.

Finally, 62% believe it should be against the law for former Members of Congress to lobby on behalf of communist countries. Just 13% disagree.

An earlier survey found that 65% of voters favor prohibiting the U.S. government from entering into contracts with any entity the relies upon the use of forced labor in China. Sixty-two percent (62%) believe it should be against the law for companies in the U.S. to purchase or sell any products made by forced labor in Chinese detention camps.

Other data showed that 66% of voters believe it is important for the United States to hold China accountable for its abuse of the Uyghur Muslims. A broader question found that 80% of voters think it is important for the United States to hold China accountable for its use of slave labor and other human rights violations.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe the U.S. system of politics and government is morally superior to China’s. Just 16% disagree.

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Question 1:

Should it be against the law for former Members of Congress to lobby on behalf of communist countries?

62% Yes

13% No

25% Not sure

Question 2:

A proposal has been made that would prohibit the Chinese Government, the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese citizens from purchasing agricultural land located in the United States. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

44% Strongly favor

22% Somewhat favor

11% Somewhat oppose

7% Strongly oppose

15% Not sure

Question 3:

Another proposal has been made that would prohibit federal funding for universities that partner on research projects with the People’s Republic of China. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

33% Strongly favor

23% Somewhat favor

14% Somewhat oppose

10% Strongly oppose

20% Not sure

Methodology

Election Night Poll: Virginia Voters Believe America Founded on Noble Ideals; Students Should Use Bathroom of Their Biological Gender

Posted on November 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

On Election Night, November 2, Scott Rasmussen conducted a survey of 500 Virginia voters. Highlights from the survey are summarized below:

81% of Virginia voters believe photo IDs should be required for voting. That includes 94% of Youngkin voters and 66% of McAuliffe voters
57% of Virginia voters believe high school students should be required to use the bathroom of their biological gender while 33% disagree. 80% of Younkin voters believe students should be required to follow their biological gender. By a 54% to 34% margin, McAuliffe voters believe students should be allowed to use the bathroom of the gender they identify with.
49% of Virginia voters believe it is possible to support the policies of former President Trump without supporting Donald Trump himself; 39% disagree.
71% of Youngkin voters believe you can support Trump policies without supporting Trump. 61% of McAuliffe voters disagree.
34% of voters in the state have relatives or close friends who will get vaccinated against their will because they don’t want to lose their job. They voted for Youngkin by a 58% to 41% margin.
83% of Virginia voters agree that “America was founded on the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Our nation has a tragic history of racial injustice, but we have made and continue to make progress.” That includes 84% of Youngkin voters and 82% or McAuliffe voters.
Just 53% believe Virginia’s public schools are teaching students that America was founded on the ideals of freedom and equality. 29% believe students are being taught that America was founded upon the ideas of racism and white supremacy.
14% believe America was founded on noble ideals but students are being taught it was founded on racism. They voted for Youngkin by a 74% to 25% margin
A majority (58%) of those who believe that America was founded on racism also believe that students are being taught it was founded on noble ideals. These voters supported McAuliffe by a 71% t0 28% margin.
Top issues for Youngkin voters: Education, Immigration, Inflation and the economy.
Top issues for McAuliffe voters: COVID, Education, Inflation and the economy.
77% were confident that the votes would be accurately counted and the correct winner declared. That included 63% of Youngkin voters and 92% of McAuliffe voters.
29% of Virginia voters believe the economy is getting better, 52% said worse.
79% have experienced sharp price increases.
69% have experienced backorders, delays, or shortages of items they would like to buy.

The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

60% Oppose Payment to Illegal Immigrants in Build Back Better Plan; 28% Support

Posted on October 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

The Build Back Better plan includes more than $10 billion in payments to illegal immigrants. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters favor that provision while 60% are opposed.

Those totals include 12% who Strongly Favor the payments while 43% are Strongly Opposed.

The strongest backers of the president’s plan support the payments to illegal immigrants by a 3-to-1 margin. However, among the less committed voters who Somewhat Favor the president’s plan, a majority (52%) are opposed to this provision.

Not surprisingly, those who oppose the Build Back Better plan also strongly oppose the payments to illegal immigrants. Additionally, among those who have never heard of the president’s plan, 70% oppose the payments to illegal immigrants.

Overall, 83% of Republicans oppose the payments while 53% of Democrats favor them. Among Independent voters, 19% support this provision and 70% are opposed.

The payments are supported by 52% of Urban voters, 25% of Suburban voters, and 21% of Rural voters.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Hispanic voters favor this provision of the Build Back Better plan. So do 46% of Black voters. However, 68% of White voters are opposed.

Just 38% of voters approve of the way President Biden is handling the issues of government spending and taxes. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

His plan–called the Big Government Socialism bill by Republicans–includes some popular provisions but many other that are problematic for voters.

The plan calls for vastly expanding the level of personal banking information reported to the IRS. However, 72% of voters think the IRS already collects too much personal information that should remain private. Rather than giving the IRS more access, these voters believe that more privacy protections are needed.
To receive federal benefits, 78% think those who are able should be required to work. The president’s plan opposes such work requirements.
Another provision would provide tax credits of up to $50,000 for print journalists. Just 19% of voters favor that provision.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on October 18-20, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1percentage points.

72% Believe IRS Already Collects Too Much Information; Think More Privacy Protections Are Required

Posted on October 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters think the IRS collects too much personal information that should remain private and that more privacy protections are needed. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 16% disagree and 12% are not sure.

Those totals include 41% who Strongly Agree that more privacy protections are needed and 4% who Strongly Disagree.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans think more protections are needed. So do 68% of Democrats and 64% of Independents.

President Biden’s Build Back Better proposal currently includes provisions that would give the IRS more access to personal and business financial information. Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters believe that some agents or political leaders would use additional information to harm political opponents. On that question, 14% disagree and 15% are not sure.

The desire for more privacy protection is found across the board. Among those who Strongly Favor the president’s plan, 62% believe the IRS already collects too much information. Among those who Somewhat Favor the Build Back Better plan, 72% believe additional privacy protections are needed.

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Question 1:

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) collects too much personal information that should remain private. We need to put more privacy protections in place.”

41% Strongly agree

31% Somewhat agree

12% Somewhat disagree

4% Strongly disagree

12% Not sure

Question 2:

Suppose the IRS had access to more personal information. How likely is it that some agents or political leaders would use that information to harm political opponents?

42% Very likely

30% Somewhat likely

9% Not very likely

5% Not at all likely

15% Not sure

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1percentage points.

77% Have Recently Experienced Sharp Price Increases While Shopping

Posted on October 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters have recently experienced sharp increases in the cost of items they would like to buy. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 17% have not noticed such increases and 7% are not sure.

Sharp price increases have been felt by 87% of Republicans, 72% of Democrats, and 71% of Independent voters.

Data released earlier showed that 63% of voters have personally experienced supply chain problems.

Just 45% of voters approve of the way President Biden is handling economic issues. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

Only 38% approve of the way he is handling issues related to taxes and government spending. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe that increasing government spending leads to inflation.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on October 11-13, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Voters Say 44 cents of Every Dollar Spent By Federal Government is Wasted

Posted on October 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

On average, American voters currently believe that 44 cents out of every dollar spent by the federal government is wasted. That result comes from a Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters conducted October 6-9, 2021.

This result is consistent with a long history of survey data compiled by Gallup. Since 1979, voters have estimated that anywhere from 38 to 51 cents out of every federal dollar is wasted.

The lowest levels of estimated waste were found during Ronald Reagan’s Administration in the 1980s.

58% See Federal Government As Threat to Freedom and Liberty; 24% Disagree

Posted on October 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters believe that the federal government today is a threat to the freedom and liberty of individual Americans. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% disagree and 19% are not sure.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans see the federal government as a threat to freedom and liberty. So do 54% of Independent voters and 46% of Democrats.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Hispanic voters see the government as a threat to freedom and liberty. In response to the proposed federal vaccine mandate, an earlier survey found that 60% of Hispanic voters know someone who will get vaccinated against their will.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of White voters see the federal government as a threat to freedom and liberty. So do 40% of Black voters.

Among voters who prefer policies like those of former President Trump, 78% see the federal government as a threat.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 8, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Voters Say Highest Loyalty Owed to Family & Faith Rather Than Government

Posted on October 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

In the event of conflicts, 45% of voters say their highest loyalty is to family. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% said their highest loyalty goes to their faith or religion while 18% said it’s to themselves.

Twelve percent (12%) place the federal government as tops, 3% say their state government, and 2% their employer.

As on many issues, those with a postgraduate degree have a decidedly different perspective. Among voters with such high levels of formal education, 32% name family as their top priority followed closely by the federal government.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

30% Believe Political Leaders Should Be Paid More Than Corporate CEOs

Posted on October 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty percent (30%) of voters believe that the president, members of Congress, and top government officials run the country should be paid more than corporate CEOs. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 57% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Those totals include 13% who Strongly Agree and 39% who Strongly Disagree.

A modest plurality of Democrats (48%) believe government officials should be paid more than corporate CEOs. However, 68% of Republicans and 62% of Independent voters disagree. The partisan differences likely reflect a fundamentally different understanding of government’s role in society.

There is also a substantial divide along educational lines. Most voters with a postgraduate degree (55%) believe government officials should be paid more than corporate CEOs. Among all other voters, that view is rejected by a 60% to 26% margin.

The question began with a potentially misleading statement that may have impacted the results: “Since the president, members of Congress, and top government officials run the country…” In reality, those political leaders are responsible for running the government rather than the country.

Survey data over the years has consistently shown that voters believe positive change in America generally comes from outside the political system. When it comes to making important decisions about the nation’s future, 61% of voters trust everyday Americans more than government leaders. Just 19% place more trust in government leaders while 21% are not sure.

Additionally, when the federal government tries to manage the economy, 68% of voters believe it generally does more harm than good.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

61% Believe Political Reporters Generally Report Their Team’s Talking Points Rather Than Facts

Posted on October 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters believe that political reporters focus more on presenting the talking points favored by their political party rather than presenting the facts of a situation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 25% believe political reporters focus primarily on the facts and 15% are not sure.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans believe reporters focus mostly on delivering their party’s talking points. Independents agree by a 63% to 17% margin.

However, Democrats are evenly divided: 42% say political reporters generally present the facts while 43% believe they focus more on talking points.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 2-5, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 151 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

80% Say It’s Important to Hold China Accountable For Use of Slave Labor and Other Human Rights Violations

Posted on September 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty percent (80%) of voters think it is important for the United States to hold China accountable for its use of slave labor and other human rights violations. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 11% disagree and 10% are not sure.

Those totals include 50% who believe it is Very Important to hold China accountable for human rights abuses and 4% who say it is Not at All Important.

Additionally, 60% believe it is important to hold China accountable for the spread of COVID-19. On that question, 26% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Conservative and moderate voters tend to believe that it’s important to hold China accountable for the spread of COVID-19. Liberal voters are more evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 24-25, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

73% Oppose Plan Requiring Banks to Notify IRS of All Personal Transactions Over $600

Posted on September 29, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

A proposal has been made that would require banks to notify the IRS of every transaction of $600 or more made by every American. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 18% of voters favor this plan while 73% are opposed.

Those totals include 6% who Strongly Favor the plan and 59% who are Strongly Opposed.

This effort to give IRS more access to personal financial information is opposed by 86% of Republicans, 71% of Independents, and 62% of Democrats.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Biden: 45% Approve; Strong Approval at 18%, Down 7 Over Past Week

Posted on September 29, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. That’s down three points from a week ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 48% disapprove and 6% are not sure.

Just 18% of voters Strongly Approve of the president’s performance, down seven points from a week ago and the lowest level yet measured. Thirty-four percent (34%)Strongly Disapprove.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters consider the situation at the border to be a crisis and just 22% say Biden has done a good or excellent job dealing with it.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters disapprove of the president’s decision to remove American troops from Afghanistan before all Americans were evacuated. Twenty-one percent (21%) give the president good marks for handling that withdrawal.

On the legislative front, voters are evenly divided when given a choice between passing or rejecting both the bi-partisan infrastructure legislation and the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package: 40% would prefer to pass both bills while 38% would like to see both rejected. Voters are also evenly divided as to whether Biden’s policies are good or bad for the middle class.

The two spending bills include some popular provisions but 77% of voters expect the final package will also include “Inappropriate” provisions inserted by lobbyists.

One such provision would provide tax credits of up to $50,000 for print journalists. Just 19% of voters favor that provision.
Another provision that may be included would require banks to notify the IRS of every transaction of $600 or more made by every American. Just 18% like that idea while 73% are opposed.

Voters also overwhelmingly believe that higher corporate tax rates will lead to higher prices for consumers.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

42% Say Biden Policies Good for the Middle Class; 39% Say Bad

Posted on September 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters believe President Biden’s policies are good for middle class Americans while 39% say they are bad.

Not surprisingly, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found a huge partisan divide. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democrats believe Biden’s policies are good for the middle class while 69% of Republicans take the opposite view. Among Independents, 31% say the policies are good for the middle class while 35% say bad.

It is interesting to note that upper income Americans are far more likely than others to see Biden’s policies as good for the middle class.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 22, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

21% Approve of Biden’s Handling of Afghanistan Withdrawal

Posted on September 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters give President Biden good or excellent marks for handling the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that figure is down ten points from the beginning of September.

Just 42% of Democrats now say the president did a good or excellent job. That’s down 18 points from the beginning of the month.

Only 13% of Independents and 7% of Republicans give the president such positive reviews on handing the withdrawal.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters disapprove of the president’s decision to remove American troops from Afghanistan before all Americans were evacuated. That’s up four points from earlier in the month. Only 33% even somewhat approve of the president’s decision.

Seventy-four percent (74%) think it’s likely that Americans left behind in Afghanistan will eventually be discovered by the Taliban and tortured or killed.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

67% Say Situation at Southern Border a Crisis; 22% Give Biden Good Marks for Dealing With It

Posted on September 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters believe the situation at the Southern border is a crisis. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% disagree.

At the same time, just 22% think the Biden Administration is doing a good or excellent job dealing with the situation. That’s down nine points since August and 14 points from 36% in late May.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Democrats give the Biden team good marks. Just 13% of Independent voters and 9% of Republicans agree.

Overall, 44% of voters are at least somewhat confident in the ability of the Biden Administration to keep America safe. Forty-eight percent (48%) are not.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

19% Favor Reconciliation Tax Credit for Journalists; 54% Oppose

Posted on September 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Nineteen percent (19%) of voters favor a proposal providing a tax credit of up to $50,000 for print and online journalists. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 54% are opposed and 27% are not sure.

The proposal is part of the reconciliation package being considered by Congress. Just 6% Strongly Favor the idea and 36% are Strongly Opposed.

The proposal is at least somewhat supported by 30% of Democrats, 18% of Independents, and 10% of Republicans.

Those who favor policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders like policies are evenly divided: 35% favor the tax credit and 36% are opposed. Those who prefer more traditional Democratic policies are opposed by a 2-to-1 margin.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

76% Believe Raising Corporate Taxes Will Raise Prices for Consumers

Posted on September 25, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the federal government raises taxes on large corporations, 76% of voters think it is likely that consumers will end up paying higher prices. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 73% believe such tax hikes will cause some companies to take jobs overseas.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans believe higher corporate taxes will lead to higher costs. S0 do 76% of Democrats and 68% of Independents.

Data released earlier showed that 61% of voters expect the Biden Administration to raise middle class taxes.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

77% Expect Reconciliation Bill Will Include “Inappropriate” Provisions Inserted by Lobbyists

Posted on September 25, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters expect that the reconciliation bill will include inappropriate provisions inserted by lobbyists. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 80% think it’s likely that some Members of Congress would insert special favors for their donors that couldn’t pass if others knew about them.

Those fears help explain why 81% of voters believe Congress needs time to read the bill before voting. A solid majority of voters think Congress should have at least a week to review the legislation before voting.

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* If Congress is not given time to review the final bill, how likely is it that the reconciliation bill will include inappropriate provisions inserted by lobbyists?

52% Very likely

25% Somewhat likely

7% Not very likely

3% Not at all likely

12% Not sure

* Okay… if Congress is not given time to review the final bill, how likely is it that some Members of Congress would insert special favors for their donors that couldn’t pass if others knew about them?

53% Very likely

27% Somewhat likely

7% Not very likely

3% Not at all likely

10% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 16-18, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 263 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

78% Favor Work Requirements For Those Receiving Government Benefits

Posted on September 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If someone is physically able to work, 78% of voters believe they should be required to seek a job in order to receive financial support from the government. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 13% disagree and 9% are not sure.

A solid majority of every measured demographic group supports the work requirement. That includes 86% of Republicans, 76% of Independents, and 73% of Democrats.

Overall, 54% Strongly Favor work requirements and 4% are Strongly Opposed.

Earlier this year, the Biden Administration removed work requirements for the Child Care Tax Credit. Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters favor restoring the work requirement for all who are physically able to work. Twenty-four percent (24%) are opposed.

Restoring the work requirement is favored by a majority of every measured demographic group. That includes 75% of Republicans, 65% of Democrats, and 57% of Independents.

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* If someone is physically able to work, do you favor or oppose requiring that they seek a job in order to receive financial support from the government?

54% Strongly favor

24% Somewhat favor

9% Somewhat oppose

4% Strongly oppose

9% Not sure

* Until this year, parents had to have income from a job to qualify for the Child Tax Credit. The Biden administration did away with the work requirement. Do you favor or oppose restoring the work requirement for all who are physically able to work?

44% Strongly favor

22% Somewhat favor

14% Somewhat oppose

10% Strongly oppose

10% Not sure

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

50% Believe Things Would Be Better Today If Trump Had Won; 39% Say Worse

Posted on September 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe things would be better today if Donald Trump had won the 2020 presidential election. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 39% believe things would be worse and 12% who don’t think things would be all that different.

The total includes 34% who say things would be much better and 29% who say much worse.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans believe things would be better while 68% of Democrats hold the opposite view. Among Independents, 43% say better and 39% worse.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of White voters believe things would be better if Trump had won. So do 53% of Hispanic voters and 26% of Black voters.

These results may highlight some challenges resulting from President Biden’s call for a vaccine mandate. While the proposal is modestly popular overall, 26% of Black Democrats believe individuals should decide for themselves whether to get vaccinated. Additionally, 60% of Hispanic voters have a close friend or relative who will get vaccinated against their will because they can’t afford to lose their job.

President Biden has gotten very low marks for handling the situation at the southern border of the United States. On a related national security topic, most voters disapprove of the president’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan before all Americans were evacuated.

Overall, a plurality of voters would prefer a candidate who supports Trump-like policies.

President Biden has had a challenging few months and his job approval ratings have slipped.

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* Suppose that Donald Trump had won the 2020 election. Would things today be better, worse, or about the same?

34% Much better

16% Somewhat better

10% Somewhat worse

29% Much worse

6% About the same

6% Not sure

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

60% Think US Gov’t Could Go Bankrupt Within 10-15 Years

Posted on September 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of Registered Voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that the U.S. government will go bankrupt in the next 10-15 years. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% believe bankruptcy is unlikely and 11% are not sure.

The totals include 33% who consider the government going bankrupt to be Very Likely. At the other extreme, 12% say it is Not at All Likely.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans consider the government going bankrupt to be at least somewhat likely. That view is shared by 57% of Independent voters and 53% or Democrats.

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* How likely is it that the United States government will go bankrupt within the next 10-15 years?

33% Very likely

27% Somewhat likely

18% Not very likely

12% Not at all likely

11% Not sure

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

81% Think Congress Needs Time to Read the Reconciliation Bill Before Voting; Solid Majority Believes at Least a Week Should Be Provided

Posted on September 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters believe Members of Congress should be given time to read the reconciliation bill before voting on it. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 8% disagree and 11% are not sure.

Among those who believe members should have time to read the bill, 76% think at least a week should be allowed. Fourteen percent (14%) believe 72-hours should be sufficient while 7% think 24-hours is long enough.

The legislation is currently being drafted. The final document is likely to be thousands of pages long.

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* Congress is considering a “reconciliation plan” that would increase federal spending by $3.5 trillion. The bill has not been finalized, but it could be thousands of pages. When it is complete, should Members of Congress be given time to review the bill before voting on it?

81% Yes

8% No

11% Not sure

* [If yes to prior question] How much time should Members of Congress be given to review the final reconciliation bill before voting?

7% 24 hours

14% 3 days

29% A week

20% Two weeks

27% More than two weeks

4% Not sure

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Biden Job Approval Stabilizes: 48% Approve, 48% Disapprove

Posted on September 20, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 48% disapprove and 4% are not sure. That’s essentially unchanged from a week ago.

Those totals include 25% who Strongly Approve and 35% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters at least somewhat favor the president’s vaccination mandate order. At the same time, however, 54% of voters nationwide believe vaccine requirements should be determined in the private sector.

How can a majority think decisions should be made in the private sector at the same time a majority supports Biden’s top-down approach?

It turns out that just 36% of those who favor the president’s plan believe the federal government should make such decisions. Another 20% of those who support the president’s mandate believe the decision should be made at the state or local level. At the same time, 27% believe the decision should be made either by individual companies or workers.

These results suggest that support for the president’s plan is driven more by partisan loyalty rather than the plan itself.

Adding to the softness of support for the president’s vaccine mandate is the fact that just 33% of voters believe he has the legal authority to order private companies to impose a vaccine requirement. Even among those who favor the plan, just over half (54%) believe Biden has the legal authority to impose it.

Related data shows that 39% of voters have relatives or close friends who will get vaccinated against their will because they don’t want to lose their job. That total includes 60% of Hispanic voters.

Additionally, 66% of voters are close to resuming their normal life in terms of going out socially, traveling, and interacting with others in person.

Still, pessimism about the pandemic remains high. Just 28%believe the worst is behind us. Forty-five percent (45%) believe the worst is yet to come. That matches the most pessimistic assessment since the vaccines rolled out in January.

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

54% Believe Vaccine Requirements Should Be Decided in the Private Sector; 36% Want Government to Set the Guidelines

Posted on September 20, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters nationwide believe vaccine requirements should be determined in the private sector. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% disagree and believe governments should establish the guidelines.

Those totals include 30% who believe individual companies should set the rules for their workforce and 24% who think the decision should be left up to individual workers. On the other hand, 21% believe the federal government should decide and 15% think the rules should be set by state and local governments.

Republicans, by a 65% to 28% margin believe that companies or workers should decide for themselves. Independent voters, by a 58% to 26% margin agree. Most Democrats, however, see it differently. By a 54% to 39% margin, those in President Biden’s party believe believe governments at some level should set the rules.

As on many issues, there is a significant divide between the views of White Democrats and Black Democrats. Twenty-six percent (26%) of Black Democrats believe individual workers should decide for themselves. Just 9% of White Democrats share that view.

These results are especially interesting because the same survey found that 54% of voters at least somewhat favor the president’s mandate order. How can a majority think decisions should be made in the private sector at the same time a majority supports Biden’s top-down approach?

On the flip side, those who disapprove of the president’s policy, 81% believe the decision should be made by individual companies or workers.

These results suggest support for the president’s plan is driven more by partisan loyalty rather than the plan itself.

Adding to the softness of support for the president’s vaccine mandate is the fact that just 33% of voters believe the president has the legal authority to order private companies to impose a vaccine requirement. Even among those who favor the plan, just over half (54%) believe Biden has the legal authority to impose it.

Additionally, 66% of voters are close to resuming their normal life in terms of going out socially, traveling, and interacting with others in person.

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* How closely have you followed recent news stories about President Biden’s new vaccine mandates?

33% Very closely

37% Somewhat closely

17% Not very closely

10% Not at all closely

4% Not sure

* Who should make the decision as to whether a company requires all employees to receive the COVID vaccine?

21% The federal government

15% State and local governments

30% Individual companies

24% Individual workers

10% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 14-15, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

39% of Voters Have Relatives or Close Friends Who Will Get Vaccinated Against Their Will Because They Don’t Want to Lose Their Job

Posted on September 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters have relatives or close friends who will get vaccinated against their will because they don’t want to lose their job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% do not and 29% are not sure.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Democrats know someone who will get vaccinated against their will. So do 38% of Republicans and 36% of Independents.

Sixty percent (60%) of Hispanic voters know someone who will get vaccinated against their will. That figure is 38% among White voters and 34% among Black voters.

The survey also found that 36% have relatives or close friends who will quit their job rather than get vaccinated. Forty-two percent (42%) do not while 23% are not sure.

The partisan and racial dynamics are essentially the same on that question.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters know someone in both categories: those who will quit rather than get vaccinated and those who will get vaccinated against their will.

Data released earlier shows that just 33% of voters believe the president has the legal authority to order private companies to impose a vaccine requirement. Despite that, 54% at least somewhat favor the president’s mandate order.

Other data shows that 66% of voters are close to resuming their normal life in terms of going out socially, traveling, and interacting with others in person. If they tested positive for COVID, 68% believe it is likely they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms.

* Do you have any relatives or close friends who will quit their job rather than get vaccinated?

36% Yes

42% No

23% Not sure

* Okay, do you have any relatives or close friends who will get vaccinated against their will because they don’t want to lose their job?

39% Yes

32% No

29% Not sure

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Given a Choice, 40% Want Both Infrastructure and Reconciliation Bills to Pass; 38% Want Both to Be Rejected

Posted on September 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Voters are evenly divided when given a choice between passing both the bi-partisan infrastructure legislation and the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% of Registered Voters nationwide would prefer to pass both bills while 38% would like to see both rejected.

Among those most motivated to vote in the midterm elections, 42% would like both bills to pass and 43% would prefer that both fail.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats would like both bills to pass while 62% of Republicans want both to be rejected. Among Independent voters, 31% want both to pass and 38% don’t want either to pass.

Individually, a plurality of voters support both pieces of legislation. By a 46% to 27% margin, voters would like to see the House pass the Senate-approved infrastructure plan. By a narrower 47% to 40% margin, voters tend to favor the reconciliation bill as well.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 10-11, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 239 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

33% Believe President Has Legal Authority to Order Vaccine Mandates

Posted on September 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters believe the president has the legal authority to order private companies to impose a vaccine requirement. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 45% disagree and 22% are not sure.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Democrats believe the president has such authority. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans say he does not. Among Independent voters, 23% believe the president has the authority and 48% do not.

Despite the fact that only 33% believe the president has the legal authority to act, 54% at least somewhat favor the president’s mandate order. Thirty-seven percent (37%) are opposed.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats favor the president’s action while 57% of Republicans disagree. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Data released earlier showed that 66% of voters are close to resuming their normal life in terms of going out socially, traveling, and interacting with others in person. If they tested positive for COVID, 68% believe it is likely they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms.

* Is the worst of the pandemic behind us, or is it still to come?

28% Behind us

45% Still to Come

27% Not Sure

* For all companies with more than 100 employees, President Biden has mandated that they must require their workers to be vaccinated or submit to weekly testing. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

32% Strongly favor

22% Somewhat favor

12% Somewhat oppose

25% Strongly oppose

9% Not sure

* Regardless of whether you favor or oppose the vaccine mandates, does the president have the legal authority to order private companies to impose a vaccine requirement?

33% Yes

45% No

22% Not sure

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

66% Close to Resuming Normal Life

Posted on September 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Two-thirds (66%) of voters are close to resuming their normal life in terms of going out socially, traveling, and interacting with others in person. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% say they are not close to resuming their normal life and 5% are not sure.

Those totals include 29% who are Very Close to resuming their normal life and 8% who are Not at All close.

Seventy percent (70%) of White voters are close to resuming their normal life. So are 68% of Hispanic voters and 53% of Black voters.

Among those who Strongly Approve of President Biden’s vaccine mandate orders, 56% are close to a normal life. However, among those who Strongly Opposed to the Biden plan, 79% are close to a normal life.

If they tested positive for COVID, 68% believe it is likely they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms. Seventeen percent (17%) consider it unlikely while 15% are not sure.

Those totals include 34% who say a quick recovery is Very Likely while 5% say it’s Not at All Likely.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Forty-five percent (45%) believe the worst is yet to come. Those numbers are down slightly from a month ago and match the most pessimistic assessment since the vaccines rolled out in January.

* Is the worst of the pandemic behind us, or is it still to come?

28% Behind us

45% Still to come

27% Not sure

* Some people have generally resumed their life and go out socially, travel, and interact with others in person. How close are you to resuming a somewhat normal life?

29% Very close

37% Somewhat close

22% Not very close

8% Not at all close

5% Not sure

* If you tested positive for COVID, how likely is it that you would recover quickly with only minor symptoms?

34% Very likely

34% Somewhat likely

12% Not very likely

5% Not at all likely

15% Not sure

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

On Important National Decisions, 61% Trust Everyday Americans More Than Government Officials; 19% Place Faith in Government Leaders

Posted on September 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to making important decisions about the nation’s future, 61% of voters trust everyday Americans more than government leaders. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 19% place more trust in government leaders while 21% are not sure.

Those with a postgraduate degree are evenly divided: 43% trust government officials more while 42% trust everyday Americans. Among every other measured demographic group, a plurality or majority has more faith in everyday Americans.

Hispanic voters, by a narrow 44% to 36% margin, place more trust in everyday Americans. Black voters do the same by a 47% to 20% margin. Among White voters, 66% place more trust in everyday Americans while just 16% are more comfortable with government leaders making the decisions.

Thirty percent (30%) of urban voters place more trust in government leaders. That view is shared by 18% of suburban voters and 11% of rural voters.

Data released earlier showed that, when the federal government tries to manage the economy, 68% of voters believe it generally does more harm than good. On that, just 20% disagree and 12% are not sure.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

68% Believe Fed Gov’t Efforts to Manage Economy Generally Do More Harm Than Good

Posted on September 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When the federal government tries to manage the economy, 68% of voters believe it generally does more harm than good. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% disagree and 12% are not sure.

Those totals include 37% who Strongly Agree and 6% who Strongly Disagree.

That belief is shared by 82% of Republicans, 65% of Independents, and 60% of Democrats.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Hispanic voters believe government efforts to manage the economy generally do more harm than good. So do 69% of White voters and 62% of Black voters.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

48% Say Gov’t Regulation of Small Business Too Strict, 11% Say Not Strict Enough; Different Story for Big Business

Posted on September 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters believe government regulations on small businesses are too strict. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 11% believe they are not strict enough while 24% believe the level of regulation is about right.

However, perceptions are much different when it comes to regulating big businesses. Forty percent (40%) say regulation of big businesses is not strict enough. Just 23% think they are too strict while 20% say about right.

There is a substantial gender gap on this topic. By a 46% to 15% margin, women believe that regulations on big businesses are not strict enough. Men are evenly divided between too strict and not strict enough.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of men believe the regulations on small businesses are too strict. Forty-two percent (42%) of women agree.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

76% Say Taxes in America Are Too High; 9% Say Too Low

Posted on September 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters believe taxes in America are currently too high. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 9% believe they are too low and 8% think they’re about right.

These totals include 39% who believe taxes are Much Too High and 3% who believe they are Much Too Low.

The belief that taxes are too high is strongly shared across all measured demographic groups. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of men hold that view as do 75% of women. So do 77% of rural residents, 76% of suburban residents, and 74% of urban residents. Among those who earn less than $100,000 a year, 77% believe taxes are too high. Among those with higher incomes, that figure is 74%.

Politically, 87% of Republicans believe taxes are too high. So do 71% of Independent voters and 69% of Democrats.

The highest level of belief that taxes are too low was found among voters who prefer policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders. However, even among Sanders’ voters, 67% believe taxes are too high and just 18% believe they are too low.

Democrats in Congress say they are focused on higher taxes only for the rich, but voters are skeptical. After being reminded that President Biden has promised not to raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000 a year, 61% of voters believe it is likely that the Biden Administration will raise taxes on middle class Americans. Only 27% consider it unlikely.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters believe the benefits of government are worth the costs and regulations. Thirty-three percent (33%) disagree and 26% are not sure.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Biden Job Approval Rebounds Following Speech: 47% Approve, 48% Disapprove

Posted on September 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 48% disapprove and 5% are not sure.

The survey, conducted in the two days following the president’s speech announcing new COVID mandates, shows a modest bounce for the president. His approval numbers are up five points from earlier in September and up one from mid-August.

The biggest gains for the president came from voters who prefer traditional Republican policies. Prior to the speech, 26% of these voters approved of the president’s performance. That jumped 14 points to 40% in the latest survey.

However, the president’s numbers improved only two points among Independents.

The current totals include 29% who Strongly Approve and 36% who Strongly Disapprove. These numbers also indicate a bounce for the president.

The president’s speech increased voter enthusiasm for the midterm elections across the board. Those who prefer Trump-like policies remain more motivated to vote than other segments of the population.

The survey found little change on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The parties remain tied among Registered Voters while the GOP has a slight edge among motivated voters.

Data released earlier showed that Democratic voters see supporters of Donald Trump and the unvaccinated as the biggest threats facing the nation. Democrats were less likely to express serious concern about the Taliban, China, or Russia (37%).

Among Republicans and Independents, the top three threats are the Taliban, Defund the Police Activists, and China.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Generic Congressional Ballot: GOP 40% Dems 40%

Posted on September 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Following President Biden’s speech and new COVID mandates, the Generic Congressional Ballot remains essentially unchanged. The latest Scott Rasmussen poll shows that, if the election were held today, 40% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican.

Those numbers are unchanged since late August. In five surveys conducted earlier in the year, Democrats led by one-to-four percentage points.

Six percent (6%) say they will vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

Enthusiasm for voting increased across the board following the president’s speech.

Among those who are Very Motivated to vote, the Republicans lead by a 47% to 44% margin. That’s little changed from a month ago. The GOP advantage stems largely from the fact that voters who prefer policies of President Trump are more motivated to vote than others.

Among all Registered voters, Republicans have a modest 30% to 25% advantage.

Democrats have a huge lead among urban voters matched by a huge Republican lead among rural voters. Suburban voters are evenly divided.

Republicans lead among voters who are at least 55. Democrats lead among younger voters.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Vice President Harris: 46% Favorable 44% Unfavorable

Posted on September 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by 46% of the nation’s voters and unfavorably by 44%. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that the four top Congressional leaders are all “underwater” in their ratings

Nancy Pelosi: Favorable 39% Unfavorable 50%
Kevin McCarthy: Favorable 28% Unfavorable 35%
Chuck Schumer: Favorable 36% Unfavorable 39%
Mitch McConnell: Favorable 31% Unfavorable 48%

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Following Biden Speech, Interest in Midterm Elections Up Across the Board

Posted on September 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Following President Biden’s speech announcing new COVID mandates, 63% of Registered Voters feel Very Motivated to cast a ballot in next year’s midterm elections. That’s up five points from a Scott Rasmussen national survey conducted in late August.

The increased enthusiasm was found across the board.

Voters who prefer policies like those of former President Trump continue to have the highest level of motivation. Seventy percent (75%) of these populist voters are Very Motivated, up five points from the previous survey.
Among the smaller number who prefer traditional Republican policies, 56% are now Very Motivated, up six.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) of those who prefer policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders, up seven.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of those who prefer traditional Democratic candidates are now Very Motivated, up five.

Overall, 72% of Republicans are Very Motivated along with 69% of Democrats.

However, among independent voters, 77% of those who lean Republican are Very Motivated to cast a ballot in the midterms. Just 57% of those who lean towards the Democrats are that enthusiastic.

The survey was conducted on the Friday and Saturday following the president’s speech. It will be interesting to see if the new level of interest is just a temporary blip or a lasting change.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Democrats See Trump Supporters and the Unvaccinated As Biggest Threat to Nation

Posted on September 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Democratic voters believe supporters of Donald Trump are a serious threat to the nation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 56% of those in President Biden’s party also consider the unvaccinated a serious threat. That’s a higher level of concern than Democrats express about the Taliban (44% see it as a serious threat); China (44%), or Russia (37%).

These results help explain the tone and actions taken recently by President Biden.

Republicans and Independents have a much different view of the threats facing the nation.

For Republicans, the top concerns are the Taliban (66%), Defund the Police Activists (62%), and China (58%).

The top three concerns for Independents are the same as the GOP (though in a different order). The Taliban is the biggest concern for independent voters (46%) followed by China (45%) and Defund the Police Activists (36%).

Among all voters, 52% see the Taliban as a serious threat and 49% say the same about China. Next on the list, 40% see Defund the Police Activists as a serious threat and 39% see the unvaccinated that way.

While Democrats see Trump supporters as the biggest threat facing the nation, 42% of all voters see them as no threat. That’s not terribly surprising given that the former president received nearly as many votes as President Biden. This is the only group asked about in the survey where the number saying No Threat tops the Serious Threat.

The disconnect may come from the fact that a plurality of Democrats think most Trump voters supported those who assaulted the Capitol. However, that is not the case. A solid majority of Republicans and a solid majority of Trump supporters disapprove of those who broke into the Capitol on January 6.

Going even further, 45% of voters consider the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol a major threat to democracy. However, a slightly larger number–55%– believe letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

On the topic of seeing the unvaccinated as a threat, Scott Rasmussen recently asked vaccinated voters an open-ended question on their thoughts about the unvaccinated. The responses are far less angry than you might expect from the media coverage (see the raw responses from 659 vaccinated voters here).

Other recent survey data helps explain the lack of anger in the comments offered by vaccinated voters. Most (57%) are comfortable attending indoor social events without wearing a mask. Also, if they tested positive for COVID, 67% of voters think it’s they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms. Just 5% say such a recovery is Not at All Likely.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Voters Divided On Banning Abortions After Heartbeat Detected; 47% Favor While 41% Opposed

Posted on September 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters favor a proposal allowing abortions up to the moment a heartbeat is detected in the fetus. After that, abortions would not be allowed except in cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is at risk. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% are opposed and 13% are not sure.

The totals include 23% who Strongly Favor such a proposal and 27% who are Strongly Opposed. Among those most motivated to vote in the 2022 Midterm Elections, support for the measure is somewhat stronger than among the general population.

The survey also found that 46% of voters mistakenly believe that the abortion laws in the United States are more restrictive than in most European nations. Just 17% believe they are less restrictive.

The Washington Post reports that the United States is one of only seven countries in the world that allow elective abortions after 20 weeks of a pregnancy. The others are North Korea, Vietnam, China, Canada, Netherlands, and Singapore.

In Canada, some provinces allow elective abortions only during the first 12 weeks of a pregnancy while others extend the limit to 24 weeks. However, abortions after 20 weeks are not always readily available for Canadians, so women are often referred to a clinic in the United States,

Data released earlier showed that 36% of voters believe it is too easy to get an abortion in America while 26% think it is too hard.

Given a choice, 56% of voters would support a candidate who said abortion should be allowed only during the first three months of a pregnancy rather than at any point during the pregnancy. Just 23% hold the opposite view and 21% are not sure.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters know of close friends or relatives who have had an abortion. That total includes 49% of those who attend church or other religious services every week.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of those with a college degree know someone who has had an abortion. Among those without a degree, that figure is 43%.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

7-Out-Of-10 Believe Racial and Ideological Diversity Important for a Newsroom

Posted on September 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters believe it is important for a news organization’s reporters to be racially and ethnically diverse. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that a slightly larger number–78%– for reporters of a news organization to be ideologically and politically diverse.

A majority of voters in every measured demographic group believes that both racial/ethic and ideological partisan diversity is important.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

42% Believe Human Behavior Can Stop Climate Change

Posted on September 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters believe human behavior can stop climate change. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% of voters disagree and 25% are not sure.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats believe climate change can be stopped by human behavior. Just 36% of Independents and 23% of Republicans agree.

Most voters under 45 believe climate change can be stopped by changing human behavior. Older voters are less certain.

The survey also found that 80% of voters recognize that “The earth’s climate has been changing throughout history. There are historical cycles of cooling and warming.” This knowledge, however, has not prevented concerns that this time something might be different.

Still, concerns about climate change has not developed into support for major Green New Deal initiatives. One proposal included in the Democrats’ “reconciliation” plan would lead to creation of a federal Climate Climate Corps. Among other things, that proposal would hire at least 750,000 environmental activists to visit people’s homes and conduct energy audits. Most voters oppose that plan.

Overall, only 38% of voters who have heard of the Green New Deal think it is even somewhat likely to stop climate change. A larger number (49%) think it is at least somewhat likely to destroy the economy. Additionally, most believe that the Green New Deal will increase energy costs and reduce America’s energy independence.

A recent Vox article suggested “It’s time to rethink air conditioning.” Presenting air conditioning as a major environmental threat, the article suggested phasing out private air conditioning in homes and provide community cooling spaces as well. Just 22% of voters even somewhat favor such an approach.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

22% Favor Proposal to End Private Home Air Conditioning; 68% Oppose

Posted on September 10, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

A recent Vox article suggested “It’s time to rethink air conditioning.” Presenting air conditioning as a major environmental threat, it suggested phasing out private air conditioning in homes and provide community cooling spaces as well.

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters at least somewhat favor such an approach. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 68% are opposed.

The totals include 10% who Strongly Favor the idea and 56% who are Strongly Opposed.

Among voters who prefer policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders, 44% favor the elimination of private air conditioning.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Most Vaccinated Americans Believe It’s More Important for Government to Protect Individual Rights Than To Do What Majority Wants

Posted on September 10, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide believe it is more important for the government to protect the rights of individual Americans rather than doing what the majority wants. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 29% take the opposite views and believe following the majority is more important. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure.

Among voters who have received the COVID vaccine, 53% see protecting individual rights as the higher priority while 35% take the opposite view.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans see protecting individual rights as the higher priority. So do 52% of Independent voters and 48% of Democrats.

Data released earlier showed, in their own words, how vaccinated Americans view the unvaccinated. The responses are far less angry than you might expect from the media coverage. Relatively few of the vaccinated expressed anger at the unvaccinated. Instead of anger, there are many condescending comments about the perceived stupidity of the unvaccinated.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from August 10-11, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

64% Want America to Move Forward By Adapting to Pandemic; 24% Want More Lockdowns

Posted on September 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe it’s time for the nation to move forward by adapting to the ongoing nature of the pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 24% want to lockdown again until the pandemic is completely behind us.

Support for moving forward rather than locking down comes from 78% of Republicans, 59% of Independents, and 53% of Democrats.

When it comes to deciding which businesses are safe to visit, 53% of voters nationwide think individual Americans should decide for themselves. Thirty-one percent (31%) think Governors and Mayors should make that decision.

On this question there is a partisan divide. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans think individual Americans should decide for themselves. By a 50% to 33% margin, Democrats place their trust in Governors and Mayors.

As for independents, 53% trust individual Americans and 22% are more comfortable letting elected officials decide.

Other recent surveys found that 57% of voters believe the lockdowns did more harm than good.

Pessimism about the pandemic has grown dramatically in recent months. It is currently at the lowest level recorded since the vaccines became available.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

36% Likely to Attend Event Commemorating 9/11 Anniversary

Posted on September 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Saturday will be the 20^th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters say they are at least somewhat likely to attend a memorial service or other public event to commemorate the anniversary. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that most voters (54%) are unlikely to attend such an event.

The total includes 18% who are Very Likely to attend an event commemorating that tragic day. Twenty-eight percent (28%) are Not at All Likely to do so.

Those likely to attend include 39% of Democrats, 34% of Independents, and 33% of Republicans.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

52% Oppose Climate Conservation Corps Energy Audits; 31% Like the Idea

Posted on September 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

One Green New Deal related proposal in the Democrats’ proposed reconciliation spending bill is a plan for the federal government to hire 750,000 workers who would visit people’s homes to conduct an energy audit. When initially asked about that plan, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found 37% of voters at least somewhat favor the idea and 48% are at least somewhat opposed,

However, the plan does not call for the federal government to directly employ workers who would conduct the energy audits, Instead, the legislative proposal would provide funding for groups of environmental activists to hire people. Just 31% favor that idea and 52% are opposed.

Those totals include 13% who Strongly Favor the idea and 37% who are Strongly Opposed. Opposition to the plan is somewhat stronger among those most motivated to vote in the midterm elections.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of urban voters favor the hiring plan for energy audits. Just 27% of suburban voters share that view along with only 22% of rural voters.

Earlier this year, the Biden Administration proposed a door-to-door campaign to convince the unvaccinated to get the COVID vaccine. That, too, was unpopular with voters–especially the target audience.

In both cases, a majority of Democrats supported the door-to-door outreach. But Republicans and Independents opposed it. When it comes to the Climate Conservation Corps plan for paying 750,000 people to conduct home energy audits, 58% of Democrats favor the idea. Just 19% of Independents and 14% of Republicans agree.

Looked at from the opposite perspective, 78% of Republicans oppose the plan. So do 53% of Independents. Among Democrats, 26% are opposed.

These numbers provide yet another example of similarities between the Biden Administration today and the Carter Administration of the 1970s. It appears as if Democrats see these 750,000 workers as helping ordinary Americans. Republicans and Independent voters connect more with President Reagan’s view: “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help.”

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

31% Given Biden Good or Excellent Marks for Handling Afghanistan Withdrawal

Posted on September 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters give President Biden good or excellent marks for handling the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 46% say he did a poor job. In between are rate the president’s performance as just fair.

Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats say the president did a good or excellent job. Just 18% of Independents and 13% of Republicans agree.

The poor marks for the president come despite the fact that 64% of voters approve of the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. However, most voters (54%) disapprove of removing American troops before all Americans were evacuated. Seventy-four percent (74%) think it’s likely that Americans left behind in Afghanistan will eventually be discovered by the Taliban and tortured or killed.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

54% Disapprove of Removing Troops From Afghanistan Before All Americans Were Evacuated

Posted on September 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 38% of Registered Voters approve of President Biden’s decision to remove all troops from Afghanistan before all Americans were evacuated from that country. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 54% disapprove and 8% are not sure.

Those totals include 17% who Strongly Approve of the decision and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Democrats approve of the president’s decision. However, 78% of Republicans and 58% of Independent voters disapprove.

The survey also found that 74% of voters think it’s at least somewhat likely that Americans left behind in Afghanistan will eventually be discovered by the Taliban and tortured or killed. Only 14% consider it unlikely.

Those totals include 46% who think it’s Very Likely Americans will be tortured or killed by the Taliban and 3% who say it’s Not at All Likely.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Biden Job Approval Drops to 42%

Posted on September 7, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 52% disapprove and 5% are not sure.

Biden’s approval rating is down four points two weeks ago, nine points from two months ago and down 13 points from three months ago.

As the president’s ratings decline, 46% of Democrats have come to believe that things would be better today if Senator Bernie Sanders had become president instead of Joe Biden. Just 10% of Democrats disagree and believe things would be worse.

The current totals include 23% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove. These results are by far the most negative assessments yet measured for the president.

The president does earn rave reviews from voters with a postgraduate degree. Among those with a masters or a doctorate, 68% offer their approval while only 30% disapprove.

Among all other voters, just 36% approve and 58% disapprove. This includes voters with a bachelor’s degree, some college, and no college.

The gap between those with a postgraduate degree and the rest of the nation is found on a variety of issues. For example, among all voters, 34% agree that “The only way to save the planet is for the government to impose strict mandates and regulations on the way people live and the amount of energy they use.” Most (57%) disagree.

But things look different among those with high levels of formal education. Most voters with a postgraduate degree (55%) agree that, to save the planet, there is a need for strict government rules on lifestyles and energy use. However, by a 61% to 30% margin, all other voters reject that view.

It is likely that the president’s numbers will rebound somewhat as the withdrawal from Afghanistan moves further behind us. However, there is no way to tell at this moment how fully his approval ratings will recover. Presidents Obama and Trump both spent most of their first term with Job Approval ratings below 50%.

In addition to Afghanistan and the Southern border, pessimism about the pandemic is growing again. Just 25% of voters believe the worst is behind us. That’s down 31 points over the past three months and the lowest level of optimism measured since the vaccines became available.

On the policy front, 57% of voters believe that shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

34% Believe Strict Gov’t Mandates on Lifestyle and Energy Use Needed to Save the Planet; 57% Disagree

Posted on September 7, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters agree that “The only way to save the planet is for the government to impose strict mandates and regulations on the way people live and the amount of energy they use.” A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 57% disagree and 10% are not sure.

The totals include 12% who Strongly Agree that strict government rules are needed to save the planet and 41% who Strongly Disagree.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Democrats agree on the need for strict mandates and government regulations. However, 78% of Republicans and 62% of Independent voters take the opposite view.

Most voters with a postgraduate degree (55%) agree that, to save the planet, there is a need for strict government rules on lifestyles and energy use. Only 38% of those with a high level of formal education think the planet can be saved without heavy regulation.

However, the numbers are dramatically reversed among voters without a postgraduate degree. Just 30% of such voters believe government mandates on lifestyles and energy use are needed to save the planet. Sixty-one percent (61%) reject that view.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

44% of Hispanic Voters See Themselves As Hispanic

Posted on September 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 44% of voters that the Census Bureau would define as Hispanic define themselves that way. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that, given a range of options, 22% define themselves as White, 17% as American, 6% as Black, 6% as Mixed, and 4% as Asian.

This data highlights the reality that racial and ethnic categories are not nearly as clear cut as political analysts often suggest.

Overall, 47% of voters nationwide define themselves as White; 31% say American; 11% Black; 5% Hispanic; 2% Asian; 2% Mixed; and, 2% Other.

This particular survey first asked questions about race and ethnicity in the same manner as the Census Bureau. Later, we asked respondents how they defined themselves. Similar research efforts suggest that the children and grandchildren of Hispanic immigrants tend to identify more with America as their home rather than their Hispanic heritage.

The Census Bureau asks people if they are of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin and then ask a follow up question about their race. As a result, there are roughly 40 million people with some Hispanic ancestors who identify their race as White. A smaller number of voters labeled Hispanic identify their race as Black.

For anyone seeking to learn more about this topic, The Great Demographic Illusion by Richard Alba is an invaluable resource. Alba points out that many people now considered White were considered minorities in the 20th century. That includes Italians, Irish, Jews and many others. He also points out that people from Mexico were counted as White until 1980.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 26-29, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 236 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

46% of Dems Think Things Would Be Better If Sanders was President; 10% Think Things Would Be Worse

Posted on September 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-six percent (46%) of Democrats believe that things would be better today if Senator Bernie Sanders had become president instead of Joe Biden. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that only 10% of Democrats disagree and believe things would be worse with a President Sanders. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe things would be about the same.

Among all voters, 29% think things would be better, 24% say worse, and 37% about the same.

The survey also found that 41% of voters nationwide think it’s likely Sanders could have defeated President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. However, 46% consider it unlikely and 13% are not sure.

Those figures include 19% who think it’s Very Likely Sanders could have defeated Trump and 22% who say Not at All Likely.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

62% of Florida Voters Say It’s Time to Move Forward by Adapting to the Pandemic; 25% Want Lockdowns Instead

Posted on September 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Florida’s Registered Voters think it’s time to move forward by finding a way to adapt to the ongoing nature of the pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 25% believe it would be better to lockdown again until the pandemic is completely behind us.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of White voters in the state believe it’s time to move forward. So do 59% of Hispanic voters and 51% of Black voters.

The state’s most liberal voters are evenly divided on the question. Very conservative voters, on the other hand, say it’s time to move forward by a 79% to 14% margin.

Republicans overwhelmingly say it’s time to move forward. Democrats are more evenly divided. Still, by a 49% to 37% margin, a plurality of Democrats in Florida say it’s time to adapt rather than lockdown.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters in Florida was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 21-28, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 149 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

DeSantis Leads Crist, Fried in Bid for Re-election

Posted on September 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a modest lead over a pair of potential Democratic rivals among Registered Voters. However, his lead is more substantial among those Very Motivated to take part in the 2022 midterm elections.

Among Registered Voters, DeSantis leads both Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried by a 41% to 38% margin.

However, among the most motivated voters, DeSantis leads Crist by a 49% to 42% margin and Fried by a 49% to 40% margin.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Florida’s Registered Voters think it’s time to move forward by adapting to the ongoing nature of the pandemic. Just 25% believe it would be better to lockdown again until the pandemic is completely behind us.

Overall, 49% of Florida voters approve of the way that DeSantis has handled his job while 44% disapprove. Among the Very Motivated voters, 54% approve of DeSantis.

These overall dynamics are consistent with other survey research. Nationwide, on the generic ballot, Republicans and Democrats are tied among Registered Voters. However, the GOP has a 5-point advantage among the motivated voters.

Other data from the surveys will be released in the coming days.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Tied Among Registered Voters; However, Among Very Motivated Voters GOP Has 5-Point Lead

Posted on September 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 40% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican. The latest Scott Rasmussen poll is the first time the parties have been even on this basic measure of the political environment. In five earlier surveys, Democrats led by one-to-four percentage points.

At the beginning of August, Democrats held a 42% to 40% advantage.

This month, for the first time, the survey asked about enthusiasm for voting in the midterm elections. Among those who are Very Motivated to vote, the Republicans lead by a 48% to 43% margin. This five-point edge stems largely from the fact that voters who prefer policies of President Trump are more motivated to vote than others.

Among voters who prefer Traditional Republican policies, just 55% are committed to voting for a GOP candidate. Sixteen percent (16%) say they would vote for a Democrat. However, those who want Traditional GOP policies are significantly less motivated than other voters.

The survey was conducted at a time when the Biden Administration is struggling on many fronts. As a result, it is impossible to know whether the shifts in the generic ballot reflect merely a temporary blip or are the beginning of a longer-term trend.

One major challenge for the president is that just 45% of voters have confidence in the ability of the Biden Administration to keep America safe. Following the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, 49% of all voters believe that our enemies view us as weaker than before. Just 21% disagree.

The situation at the Southern border may also be a factor in the general lack of confidence. Just 28% of voters believe the federal government today is seriously trying to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration. There is a strong belief that many of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers, human traffickers, and more.

Adding to the president’s burden, pessimism about the pandemic is growing again. Just 25% of voters believe the worst is behind us. That’s down 31 points over the past three months and the lowest level of optimism measured since the vaccines became available.

On top of all that, and perhaps because of the above issues, economic confidence has fallen.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

22% Discuss Politics Daily With Family and Friends, 50% Discuss Politics No More Than Once a Week

Posted on September 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-two percent (22%) of Registered Voters discuss politics every day or nearly every day with their immediate family and close friends. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 11% have such daily discussions with people outside their circle of family and friends.

At the other end of the spectrum, 50% of voters talk politics with family and close friends once a week or less. Sixty-eight percent (68%) have such discussions with others no more than once a week.

Those totals include 18% who rarely or never discuss politics with family and friends along with 28% who don’t discuss politics with others.

Voters who prefer Trump-like policies discuss politics more often than other voters.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

58% of Registered Voters are Very Motivated to Cast a Ballot in 2022

Posted on August 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Registered Voters feel Very Motivated to cast a ballot in next year’s midterm elections. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 21% are Somewhat Motivated to participate next year.

Voters who prefer policies like those of former President Trump have a higher level of motivation than others. Seventy percent (70%) of the populist voters are Very Motivated. Among the smaller number who prefer traditional Republican politics, just 50% are that motivated.

On the other side of the aisle, 61% of those who prefer Traditional Democratic policies are Very Motivated. So are 60% of those who prefer policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Biden Approval Down to 46% Amidst Concerns About Afghanistan, Immigration, and the Pandemic

Posted on August 26, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 46% disapprove and 7% are not sure.

Biden’s approval rating is down five points from a month ago and down nine points from two months ago.

The current totals include 22% who Strongly Approve and 35% who Strongly Disapprove. That is by far the most negative assessments yet measured for the president.

As a result, 59% think a major terrorist attack in the U.S. is somewhat or very likely within the next year.

On the policy front, 57% of voters believe that shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 20-22, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 215 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

45% Confident in Biden Administration to Keep Nation Safe; 48% Are Not

Posted on August 26, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters have at least some confidence in the ability of the Biden Administration to keep America safe. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 48% do not.

Those totals include 20% who are Very Confident in the ability of the Biden team to keep us safe and 32% who are Not at All Confident.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats express confidence in the Administration. That confidence is shared by 29% of Independent voters and 17% of Republicans.

The situation at the Southern border may be a factor in the general lack of confidence. Data released earlier showed that 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government.

Just 28% of voters believe the federal government today is seriously trying to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration. There is a strong belief that many of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers, human traffickers, and more.

When given a choice, 42% of all voters see China as a bigger threat than either Russia or Afghanistan. Of those three nations, 18% see Russia as the biggest threat while 16% point to Afghanistan. Following the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, 49% of all voters believe that our enemies view us as weaker than before. Just 21% disagree.

Data released earlier showed that 59% think a major terrorist attack in the U.S. is somewhat or very likely within the next year.

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59% Say Major Terrorist Attack At Least Somewhat Likely Over Next Year

Posted on August 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Over the next year or so, 59% of voters say it is at least somewhat likely that there will be a major terrorist attack in the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 22% consider it unlikely and 19% are not sure.

Those figures include 26% who consider an attack Very Likely and 4% who say Not at All Likely.

Seventy-percent (70%) of Republicans worry that such an attack might happen. So do 52% of Democrats and 51% of Independents.

Other recent polls found that 49% believe that, following the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, America’s enemies perceive our nation as weaker. Just 21% disagree.

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Pessimism About Pandemic Continues to Grow

Posted on August 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Public confidence concerning the pandemic has fallen again to the lowest level measured since the vaccines became available. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 25% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s down three points since over the past month and down 31 points over the past three months.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now believe the worst is yet to come. That’s up three points from a month ago and up 28 points from 3 months ago.

This is the most pessimistic assessment measured since December of last year. Beginning with the rollout of the vaccines in January, confidence grew fairly steadily for five months.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of men believe the worst is behind us, an optimism shared by just 18% of women.

These numbers come at a time when 57% of voters believe that the lockdowns did more harm than good.

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Following Afghanistan Withdrawal, 49% Believe Russia and China Perceive U.S. as Weaker; 21% Disagree

Posted on August 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given the way the withdrawal from Afghanistan was handled, 49% of voters believe countries such as China and Russia now perceive the United States as weaker than before. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% disagree and 30% are not sure.

Not surprisingly, there is a wide partisan divide. Republicans tend to think the U.S. is perceived as weaker than before while Democrats are evenly divided.

Most White and Hispanic voters believe the U.S. is perceived as weaker. Black voters are evenly divided.

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57% Believe Lockdowns Did More Harm Than Good

Posted on August 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking back over the past year, 57% of voters believe that shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% disagree and 17% are not sure.

Belief that the lockdowns did more harm than good is up a couple of points from a month ago. In May, 2020, a majority of voters took the opposite view.

The current totals include 32% who Strongly Agree that the lockdowns did more harm than good and 17% who Strongly Disagree.

Republicans overwhelmingly think the lockdowns did more harm than good. Independents, by a 49% to 26% margin, tend to agree. Most Democrats (52%) take the opposite view.

However, there is a divide between White Democrats and other Democrats.

Most White Democrats (58%) reject the idea that the lockdowns did more harm than good.
Among Black Democrats, 51% agree that the lockdowns did more harm than good.
Among Other Democrats, 56% think the lockdowns did more harm than good.

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46% Think Self-Employment Is The Ideal Job

Posted on August 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters believe the ideal job is to be self-employed. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 21% would like to work for a small business.

Fifteen percent (15%) think that working for a large corporation would be ideal while 9% would like a government job.

Fifty percent (50%) of men think self-employment is the best. So do 43% of women.

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On Immigration, Voters Prefer Trump Over Biden

Posted on August 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Regardless of their view on other issues, 45% of voters believe President Trump had better immigration policies than President Biden. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% prefer the Biden approach.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans prefer Trump while 73% of Democrats like the Biden approach. Among Independents, Trump is favored by a 42% to 21% margin.

These results come at a time when just 31% of voters believe President Biden is doing a good job handling the situation at the Southern border.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters believe the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. But they’re not sure which side the federal government is on. Just 28% of voters believe the federal government today is even trying to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration.

If the federal government does not make an effort to secure the border, 61% believe state governments should be allowed to take over and secure their state border. Just 21% are opposed to state action.

There is a strong belief among voters that many of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers, human traffickers, and more. Data released earlier showed that 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government.

Half of all voters see illegal immigration as a crisis, an assessment the Biden Administration rejects.

Other recent polling data showed that 32% of voters believe all, or just about all, illegal immigrants living in the United States should be granted amnesty and allowed to remain in the country. Forty-two percent (42%) are opposed.

Nineteen percent (19%) of voters believe that U.S. border patrol agents re too harsh in dealing with illegal immigrants. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% believe they are too lenient.

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19% Believe Border Patrol Too Harsh in Treatment of Illegal Immigrants

Posted on August 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Nineteen percent (19%) of voters believe that U.S. border patrol agents are too harsh in dealing with illegal immigrants. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% believe they are too lenient.

Twenty-six percent (26%) believe the border patrol behavior is about right and 23% are not sure.

Most Republicans (52%) believe the agents are too lenient. Among Democrats, opinion is more divided with a narrow plurality (32%) believing the treatment is too harsh. Among those who prefer policies like those of Bernie Sanders, 43% believe the border patrol is too harsh.

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43% Say Feds Oppress Americans; 30% Say They Fight for the Oppressed

Posted on August 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters believe the federal government is more likely to oppress Americans rather than fight for the oppressed. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% take the opposite view and 26% are not sure.

By a 55% to 22% margin, Republicans believe the federal government is more likely to use its power in ways that oppress Americans. By a 44% to 12% margin, Independent voters agree.

Democrats, however, see things differently. By a 45% to 32% margin, those in President Biden’s party think the federal government is more likely to fight for oppressed Americans.

Urban voters tend to see the federal government fighting for the oppressed. Suburban and rural voters think it is more likely to oppress Americans.

A March survey found that 59% of voters believe the federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Just 17% disagree and 23% are not sure.

A majority of every measured demographic group sees the federal government as a special interest group. That includes 68% of Republicans, 61% of Independent voters, and 51% of Democrats.

Other data showed that 41% of voters believe the benefits of government are worth the costs and regulations. Thirty-three percent (33%) disagree.

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28% Believe Feds Serious About Securing US Border; 61% Think State Governments Should Be Allowed to Take Over

Posted on August 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 28% of voters believe the federal government today is seriously trying to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 46% disagree and don’t think the government is serious about border security. Twenty-five percent (25%) are not sure.

This may be one reason President Biden is earning low marks for handling the situation at the Southern border. There is a strong belief that many of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers, human traffickers, and more. Partly because of such concerns, only 15% of voters believe illegal immigration is good for the United States.

Data released earlier showed that 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government. Just 20% disagree and 22% are not sure.

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31% Give Biden Good/Excellent Marks for Dealing With the Southern Border

Posted on August 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to the situation at the Southern border of the United States, 31% of voters say the Biden Administration is doing a good or excellent job. That’s down five points from 36% in late May.

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% say the presidents’ team is doing a poor job with the border. In between are 19% who rate the performance as fair. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Democrats give the president positive marks for handling the border. Just 17% of Republicans and 17% of Independents agree.

The survey also found that 75% of voters believe legal immigration is good for the United States. Just 12% believe it is bad and only 15% believe illegal immigration is good for the nation.

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43% Believe Illegal Border Crossings Include a Lot of Drug Dealers

Posted on August 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters believe that a lot of drug dealers are among those crossing the U.S. border illegally these days. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 45% believe there are some drug dealers in the mix. Just 13% believe hardly any of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers.

Data released earlier showed that 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government. Just 20% disagree and 22% are not sure.

The latest survey also found that between 31% and 41% of all voters believe the illegal border crossings include a lot of Smugglers, Human Traffickers, People with COVID, Violent Criminals, Gang Members, and National Security Threats.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of all voters believe “a lot” of people in at least one of the groups mentioned are among those illegally crossing the border.

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32% Favor Amnesty for Just About All Illegal Immigrants; 42% Oppose

Posted on August 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters believe all, or just about all, illegal immigrants living in the United States should be granted amnesty and allowed to remain in the country. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 42% disagree and oppose a general amnesty while 26% are not sure.

Democrats, by a 50% to 22% margin, favor amnesty for just about all illegal immigrants. Republicans, by a 65% to 18% margin are opposed to amnesty. Among independent voters, 24% favor amnesty, 36% are opposed, and 41% are not sure.

White voters tend to oppose amnesty while Black and Hispanic voters tend to favor it.

Polls have consistently shown strong support for allowing “dreamers” to remain in the country. However, for many voters, the question of how to treat those already living in the country is something to be considered only after the border is secured.

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41% of Voters Believe Benefits of Government Are Worth the Cost

Posted on August 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters believe the benefits of government are worth the costs and regulations. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% disagree and 26% are not sure.

Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats believe government is worth the cost. However, just 28% of Republicans and 26% of Independent voters agree.

By a 41% to 33% margin, those who like traditional Republican policies say government is worth the cost. However, by a 49% to 26% margin, those preferring Trump-like policies say government is not worth the cost.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of urban voters believe government is worth the cost. That view is shared by 39% of suburban voters and 30% of urban voters.

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Just 15% of Unvaccinated Believe Fauci Makes Recommendations Based On Science

Posted on August 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 15% of unvaccinated voters believe Dr. Anthony Fauci makes his policy recommendations based primarily on scientific data and research. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 48% think his recommendations are based primarily upon his own personal and political views.

The survey also found that just 20% of unvaccinated voters have a favorable opinion of Fauci. Fifty-two percent (52%) of the unvaccinated have an unfavorable view of the presidential advisor.

Trust in Fauci is even lower among those who say they will never get vaccinated.

In terms of encouraging more people to get vaccinated, these numbers suggest that Dr. Fauci is not an effective messenger.

Among all voters, 51% have a favorable opinion of Fauci while 32% hold an unfavorable view. That’s little changed from earlier surveys.

Just under half (45%) believe Fauci makes recommendations based upon science while 30% think they are primarily personal opinions.

Fauci remains a politically polarizing figure. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats believe he makes recommendations based upon science and research. Just 28% of Republicans and 22% of Independents agree.

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50% Count on Private Sector Innovation to Address Climate Change; 27% Think Government Regulation Is The Better Approach

Posted on August 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe private sector innovation and new technology is more likely to reduce the impact of climate change than strict government regulation of energy use. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 27% hold the opposite view and 24% are not sure.

Republicans strongly believe that the private sector will provide the needed solutions. Democrats are evenly divided.

In every measured demographic group, more voters place their faith in innovation and technology rather than government regulations. However, those who prefer policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders are nearly evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from August 4-9, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Most Believe Green New Deal Will Increase Energy Costs and Reduce America’s Energy Independence

Posted on August 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Among voters who have heard of the Green New Deal, 63% think it will lead to higher electricity and gasoline prices. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% think higher costs are unlikely and 19% are not sure.

Those totals include 37% who say higher energy costs are Very Likely and 5% who say Not at All Likely.

Also, 53% believe the Green New Deal will end American energy independence and force our nation to rely upon other countries to supply our energy needs. Twenty-nine percent (29%) consider that unlikely and 17% are not sure.

Those totals include 29% who say the loss of energy independence is Very Likely and 12% who say Not at All Likely.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are more skeptical of the Green New Deal’s impact than Democrats. Still, though, a majority of Democrats think the Green New Deal will lead to higher energy prices. And, those in President Biden’s party are evenly divided as to whether or not those policies will end America’s energy independence.

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16% Have Verbally Complained To Someone Not Wearing a Mask; 11% Have Complained About a Business Requiring a Mask

Posted on August 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixteen percent (16%) of voters have verbally disapproved to someone about their refusal to wear a mask. On the other side of the debate, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 11% have complained to an employee when a business required them to wear a mask.

Fourteen percent (14%) have canceled plans due to lack of mask and social distancing requirements. But that’s balanced out by 12% who have canceled plans due to mask and social distancing requirements.

In the ongoing societal debate over pandemic protocols, 12% have had an argument with a friend over social distancing and masks. Eight percent (8%) have blocked a friend on social media over vaccination views.

Despite all the heated rhetoric in the political world, 62% of voters have not taken any of the above actions.

Recent survey data on how the vaccinated view the unvaccinated also shows less anger than the media dialogue suggests.

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59% Have Recently Gone Out In Public Maskless

Posted on August 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Within the past month or so, 59% of voters admit to going out in public without wearing a mask. That’s consistent with other recent data showing that 57% would feel comfortable going without a mask to an indoor restaurant, bar, or other social settings with a large number of people.

It’s also a significant increase since March when only 17% had gone out maskless. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found other evidence of how far society has moved forward in recent months.

53% have hung out with friends at someone’s house, up from 32% in March.
25% have attended a church or religious event in person, up from 15%
28% attended a large family gathering, up from 15%
22% have met friends at a bar, up from 14%
28% have gone on a vacation, up from 13%
10% have attended a live concert or sports event, up from 3%

In addition to weariness with the pandemic restrictions, these figures may also reflect confidence that even getting COVID isn’t terrible. If they contracted the virus, two thirds are confident they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms. Just 5% think that not at all likely.

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29% Believe Having COVID Makes You Immune; 42% Disagree

Posted on August 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If someone has had COVID-19, 29% of voters believe that they are generally immune to getting it again. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 42% disagree and 28% are not sure.

Perhaps surprisingly, there is little difference among those who have already been vaccinated and those who have not.

Younger voters are more likely than their elders to believe having COVID makes you immune. However, uncertainty on this point is high among all demographic groups.

Other data from the survey showed that 20% of the unvaccinated have already had COVID.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 5-7, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 236 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

63% See Chinese Government and Chinese Communist Party As Serious Threat to US

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters believe the Chinese Government and Chinese Communist Party are a serious threat to the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% disagree and 20% are not sure.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of White voters consider the Chinese Government and Chinese Communist Party to be a serious threat. So do 59% of Hispanic voters and 41% of Black voters.

Data released earlier showed that 73% consider it likely that the Chinese government actively covered up its role in the release of the coronavirus. There is less certainty about the U.S. role. Thirty-nine percent (39%) believe that the United States government provided funding to support dangerous research at the laboratory in Wuhan, China. Only 19% believe that’s not true. Forty-two percent (42%) are not sure.

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73% Think Chinese Gov’t Actively Covered Up Its Role in COVID Release

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters think it’s likely that the Chinese government actively covered up its role in the release of the coronavirus. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 13% consider such a coverup unlikely and 15% are not sure.

Those totals include 49% who believe a coverup is Very Likely and 5% who say it is Not at All Likely.

The survey found less certainty about the U.S. role in development of the coronavirus. Thirty-nine percent (39%) believe that the United States government provided funding to support dangerous research at the laboratory in Wuhan, China. Forty-two percent (42%) are not sure.

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48% Believe News Networks More Interested in Building Influence and Power Rather Than Reporting News

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters believe news networks and personalities are more interested in building influence and power rather than accurately reporting the news. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 31% take the opposite view and believe the news outlets are more interested in accurate reporting.

As on most issues involving the media, Republicans are more skeptical than Democrats. By a 58% to 25% margin, Republicans believe news networks are most interested in building influence and power. Democrats are evenly divided.

Most voters with a postgraduate degree believe the news outlets prioritize accurate reporting. Most other voters disagree.

Data released earlier found that just 39% of voters believe reporters would honestly report information that contradicts their own partisan and ideological views.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 27-28, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 232 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Ballot: Democrats 42% Republicans 40%

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 42% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican. Those numbers are little changed since mid-July. In fact, the numbers have held steady for months.

Democrats enjoy a massive 62% to 24% advantage among urban voters. Republicans lead by 8 percentage points among suburban voters and by 13 among rural voters.

Not surprisingly, voters are also divided as to who they trust on election reform issues. Thirty-six percent (36%) trust the Democrats, 32% trust the GOP, and 22% don’t trust either party.

Other data highlights several challenges facing the Democrats as they look to the midterms.

Given a choice, 68% of voters prefer a Congressional candidate who believed that all voters should be required to show photo ID before casting a ballot. Just 19% would cast their ballot for a candidate who voted to ban the use of photo ID requirements. That ban is included in the “For the People Act,” legislation supported by virtually every Democrat in Congress.

That legislation also runs afoul of the strong public support for having all mail-in ballots received by Election Day.

On the economic front, the collapse in confidence concerning the pandemic has not dented public perceptions of their personal finances. However, despite assurances to the contrary, 61% of voters believe the Biden Administration will raise taxes on the middle class. Additionally, 59% believe an increase in government spending leads to inflation.

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Methodology

68% Support Candidate Who Supports Photo ID Requirements; 19% Prefer Candidate Who Voted to Ban Use of Photo ID

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice, 68% of voters prefer a Congressional candidate who believed that all voters should be required to show photo ID before casting a ballot. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 19% would cast their ballot for a candidate who voted to ban the use of photo ID requirements.

The candidate supporting photo ID requirements is preferred by 70% of White voters, 68% of Hispanic voters, and 56% of Black voters.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans prefer the candidate supporting photo IDs. Independents, by a 62% to 10% margin, agree. Among Democrats, 50% prefer the candidate supporting photo ID while 32% take the opposite view.

This could be a significant challenge for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections. The “For the People Act” effectively banned the use of photo ID requirements for elections. Virtually all Democrats in Congress have voted for that legislation.

Advocates of the “For the People Act,” argue that the bill would not technically ban photo ID requirements. In their view, the legislation simply provides a workaround for people who don’t have photo IDs. Anybody would be allowed to vote by providing a sworn, written statement to an election official stating that they are eligible to vote. However, only 19% of voters consider that an acceptable substitute. Seventy-three percent (73%) are opposed.

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Methodology

How The Vaccinated See The Unvaccinated: In Their Own Words

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

In a survey conducted July 29-31, 2021, we asked vaccinated voters an open-ended question on their thoughts about the unvaccinated.

The responses are far less angry than you might expect from the media coverage. A very large share of the respondents (more than 20%) basically say it’s the right of the unvaccinated to decide for themselves (see the raw responses from 659 vaccinated voters here).

Relatively few of the vaccinated expressed anger at the unvaccinated (although a handful wished the unvaccinated would die). Instead of anger, there are many condescending comments about the perceived stupidity of the unvaccinated. Also, many comments about the unvaccinated being selfish, careless, or reckless.

Many also express a desire that the unvaccinated get vaccinated. Most such comments are fairly neutral. There were very few mentions of mandates.

Open End Responses: How The Vaccinated See The Unvaccinated

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Scott Rasmussen National Survey of 1,200 Registered Voters

Conducted July 29-31, 2021

OPEN END RESPONSES

[asked of those who have been vaccinated] What are your thoughts about people who have not yet been vaccinated?

#GetVaccinated.

A reality we have to adjust to

America is a free country we each have our own choice

anger

As soon as possible take this vaccine

As soon as possible they should take vaccines

Aside from those who medically are not able to get vaccinated, I think it’s the responsible choice for people to get vaccinated so we can achieve herd immunity and stop this pandemic from needlessly hurting and killing people.

Ask again when FDA fully approves

Be safe

Be safe out here

Befuddled

better get it done soon

careless

careless and stupid at this point

Complete idiots. Most of them think its some sort of conspiracy. Other think something in it. just dumb people

Confused

Confused, irritated, frustrated with them. I think they’re easily manipulated and not very logical-minded.

Consider all

Crazy ðŸ¤ª stupid ðŸ™„

Crazy.

dangerously living

Death wish

Different people have different belief to make things back to normal I support them to get vaccinated

Disdain

do not fill they care for thereselves or other peope

Do not mandate!

don’/t understand them why not take vacine

Don’t care

Don’t like it

dont rly care its there body

don’t want to be around them

Dumb

Dumb asses

Dump

Even though they don’t prevent in virus 100%, being vaccinated is just another layer of protection.

Everyone has their thought but yes I think they should get the shot save there life

Everyone has there own choice to being vaccinated. But I think everyone should at least still wear a mask

Everyone makes there own decisions

Everyone need to vaccine. Don’t forget this vaccine

everyone should be vaccinated

Everyone should get vaccinated

Extremely mad and disgusted

Fear….Following wrong leader

Feel it unfair.

First i scared to take vaccine but my family members insist me to take it

foolish

Foolish

Fools!

For some, I do understand the mistrust for doctors and why that’s the reason they’re not getting it, however for those who arent getting it simply because they dont believe in the virus or because they think they’ll get “microchipped” are stupid and selfish and need to get vaccinated if we want to minimize this virus.

Free Choice

Free country

Freedom of right

Get it asap and for your kids

Get it done.

Get it please

Get the vaccine be safe for yourself and others

Good luck to em

Hard to understand why they are bringing country down

Hey girl I just don’t wanna wanna

Hope they don’t get sick n die

Hopefully they won’t get or spread the virus

I believe it is their choice.

I believe that they are very foolish and a danger to others

I blame them for the current surge

I can understand

I definitely recommend getting the vaccine because COVID-19 is a monster

I do believe it is every persons choice

I do not have a problem with them not getting the shot.

I do not have any thoughts about them

I do not know if they are scared or what but this pandamic will not get any better until everyone who can get vaccinated.

I don’t care about their thoughts about it I just know I’m getting superpowers or a free ticket to heaven

I don’t understand why someone would take a chance with their precious life.

I don’t agree with them, but if I know who they are, I will definitely stay away from them.

i dont care about others

I don’t Know

I don’t think it’s safe. As of this morning 99% of those dying in hospitals from Covid are unvaccinated.

I dont think they are doing good for the economy.

I don’t understand it. They could die.

I don’t understand what they are waiting for

i don’t understand why you would not want to be safe or help the other people

I feel it’s a person’s right to choose but if they aren’t getting vaccinated they should have to where masks everywhere they go. I don’t think the vaccinated should have to where masks we did the right thing and shouldn’t be punished.

I feel its their choice

I feel like it is their own choice but that is a very small sacrifice to keep everyone safe & put an end to this virus .

I feel like they are misinformed

I feel that maybe they reasons why they dont want it and people should respect

I feel their actions are selfish and irresponsible.

I feel they not safety

I have no opinion

I have no opinion on people who have not been vaccinated . It is their own rights to get the vaccine.

I have no problem with them I just want them to make sure they wear their mask it is really dangerous not to wear it because I don’t want them getting Covid and spreading it

I have no thoughts at this time, about other people thoughts.

I have no thoughts on the people who haven’t been vaccinated. I wouldn’t be vaccinated if I didn’t feel pressured to be

I have nothing nice to say about these people

I hope they die before they get me killed.

I know it s theyr business but they should not go outside and endangered other

I know it was just fine and you know it’s good and I think that vaccines next

I pray they don’t become ill.

I really font know why Rhee not getting it they should make it mandototy

I respect the decision

I say it’s ur life but look around and see how it’s affecting others

I say they are being selfish af

I slightly understand their hesitation because it came out so quickly, but strongly believe they should be willing to mask up if they aren’t willing to be vaccinated. I also think they’re the result of consistent misinformation about the virus and the vaccine from whatever news sources they consume

I think all of people should have take covid vaccine for being healthy.

I think any person who doesn’t get the vaccine is misguided. The vaccine does nothing but help.

I think anyone who isn’t vaccinated is doing a great deal of harm to this country. I think if an outbreak happens and it can be traced back to someone who isn’t vaccinated that person should face legal consequences.

I think every people should take thik quickly

I think everyone should be vaccinated to ensure safety for all.

I think for the benefit of themselves and others they should be vaccinated

I think it is a personal decision but for those who choose not to get vaccinated are risking there life’s as well as kids and other who are compromised. Getting all your information from chosen network or social media can strongly influence the less educated on the topic.

I think it is a selfish response to a worldwide pandemic.

I think it’s a choice

I think its extremely selfish. That issue its what causing things like the delta variant

I think it’s somewhat irresponsible

I think it’s their decision

I think its there choice if they wan it or not

I think people are just truly scared of the side effects

i think that there just not thinking or they cant get it

I think that they are being foolish

I think that they are causing a lot of problems so that the country can’t be safe from covid. We eradicated polio but too many won’t be vaccinated because the government is not correct in the vaccine helping. It isn’t FDA approved, changes your DNA are just a few that prevent many from getting it. The government is trying to control us. So I feel they don’t understand the problem.

I think the people need to get vaccinated

I think their total assholes. Sorry for the cuss word. They just don’t care about anybody. It’s because of them that this new surge is going on!

I think they are at risk

I think they are being selfish and are part of Cult 45.

I think they are dumb

I think they are either stupid or selfish.

I think they are endangering people.

I think they are foolish and putting those of us who are vaccinated at risk.

I think they are foolish.

I think they are foolish/stupid/selfish and are putting even those who are vaccinated at risk.

I think they are not very smart, but I also think enough of them will die that our population will be smarter for it.

i think they are safe

I think they are scared but at the same time there decision not to vaccinate is not good for the country

I THINK THEY ARE SELFISH,DUMB

I think they are thoughtless people who don’t care about our society as a whole or anyone except themselves

I think they are very inconsiderate to others who are compromised

I think they are very irresponsible and very selfish. Millions of people have already been vaccinated and are fine their excuses for not wanting to get vaccinated are not even valid.

I think they are wrong and doing a worse to the people of our country

i think they bare crazy not protect them self

I think they cause a danger to people are still vaccinated because you can still get sick

I think they ought to do that quickly because it is a big problem

I think they should vaccinated soon

I think they should be able to do what they want, the vaccine does not do anything to them, it’s a waste of time.

I think they should be vaccinated before beenig aloud any money From the government or state’s

I think they should get it because it will stop this virus.

I think they should get it. It will help if they contract the virus

I think they should get vaccinated but at the same time you can’t force someone to get vaccinated when they don’t want to

I think they should get vaccinated by choice

I think they should get vaccinated when they want but please wear a mask and social distance

I think they should get vaccinated, but I do think it is their choice and the government shouldn’t mandate or pressure them.

I think they should take the advantage hat other people in other countries don’t have the opportunity to receive the vaccines

I think they’re extremely selfish, and should respect others feelings about getting this disease.

I think they’re being selfish

i thought nothing just glad my famiy is.

I understand the fear of the unknown since the vaccine was mass produced with no testing but it is helping to save lives so I believe it should be taken.

i understand their hesitation

I understand their worries but it’s what’s best.

I understand there rights but they are not thinking about anyone but themselves

I understand why they might be hesitant.

I understand you might be hesitant but everyone need to take it

I understand. Their views on side effects

I want them to get vaccinated to protect themelf.

I wanted that they are fastly take a vaccien.

I wish them all the best, however they still need to wear mask and protect themselves and others

I wish they would

I wish they would get vaccinated

I wish they would get vaccinated but no one can make them

I wish they would get vaccinated. We will reach herd immunity much faster if everyone gets vaccinated.

I wish they would take the vaccine for the good of the country if not for themselves.

I work in the medical field so I see everyday how its affecting our state

I worry about them

I would prefer that everyone be vaccinated but I respect everyone’s right to choose.

I would recommend giving the vaccine

I’d rather they got vaccinated, but it’s their choice.

I’d rather have suffer from some side effects from vaccine then be put in the hospital

I’d rather suffer the side effects of a vaccine than the hospitalized with the virus

Idiots

idiots

idiots and should die

Idiots with no regard to their fellow man

Idiots!

If it’s by choice, then they aren’t doing their part.

If there’s no legitimate reason for them not to be vaccinated (lack of resources/access, no method of transportation, medical issues that would get in the way), not being vaccinated is a selfish, dangerous public health risk. There’s no excuse unless you have actual, concrete reasons why you can’t yet get vaccinated.

If they are able but unwilling, then they are selfish and stupid at this point.

If they are allergic to it, they shouldn’t get the vaccine. But if they aren’t, they should get it

If they cared about other people they would get it.

If they do not have a legitimate medical reason for being unvaccinated, they are being stupid and very selfish. They need to stop watching Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, etc. and stop reading false information on social media.

If they don’t want to vaccinate that is fine but government and some private organizations and companies may require it.

If they get covid hospitals should let them die. Unless they’re immunicomproswd amd can’t get the vaccine because of that or under age anyone who doesn’t and gets covid gets no sympathy from me die for all I care let evolution get rid of stupid ones

Ignorant

Ignorant Idiots Ripe for Darwinian Justice

Ill informed

I’m angry that they refuse to be vaccinated. Former president Trump politicized the pandemic and it’s killing Republicans. Social media spreads disinformation about vaccines and those who have not been vaccinated lack basic scientific literacy and are susceptible to political propaganda.

I’m sad that they’re so scared and/or misinformed that they’re putting the whole country at risk by not being vaccinated yet. I’m angry that they’re causing unnecessary death and suffering.

Imbeciles

Important democratic

in all honesty they are complete idiots in denial.

In my opinion, I want everyone vaccinated as soon as possible

Indifferent

IRRESPONSIBLE

Irresponsible

Irresponsible and irrational

Is there choice but as much as possible i want them to be vaccinated

It angers me because they are creating new variants & spreading it.

It depends on their personal circumstances but everyone who can get vaccinated should

It doesn’t really offend me

It is a personal choice. I don’t know if there is a right or wrong decision. I was concerned about getting vaccinated and wasn’t sure I wanted it. I’m still not 100% sure it was the right thing to do for my body

It is a societal obligation to be vaccinated

It is completely their choice. If they don’t want to be, I’m fine with that.

It is ok

It is okay

It is safe and protect from effect of covid

it is so good and nice tho

It is their bad choice

it is their choice

It is their choice

It is their choice but it is not a wise one.

it is their choice but they are putting themselves at risk and others

it is their choice not mine

It is their choice, but I would recommend they get vaccinated to protect themselves and others

it is their choice, that is what freedom is all about

It is their choice. We still live in a free country

It is their choice. I am not angry at them. I am not afraid of them.

It is their choice. That’s what America is about

It is their decision.

It is their own choice. You can’t pressure someone to do something they don’t want to do. It is their right to refuse

It is their personal choice

It is their personal decision

it is their right to choose, but not a smart decision, unless they have underlying circumstances that would masks the risks outweigh the benefits.

It is their right to determine whether they want to be vaccinated or not.

It is there right not to be vaccinated but we will continue to have restrictions and this pandemic will go on forever

It is there right to choose

It is up to each individual if they want the shot or not.

It makes me angry because COVID cases have spiked and it’s making this pandemic last longer. If you’re healthy and able you should get vaccinated. Period.

It saves lives

It should be mandated/required

It should be mandatory for all people who are in the US ! Like treasonous Donny wanted to do with the people who tested positive send them to Guantánamo Bay ! Amen

It their personal choice

It there choice to take it or out my opinion does matter neither way

It would depend on why they haven’t been vaccinated

It’s a personal choice but even if you have or haven’t been vaccinated you still need to stay safe and take protective measures against covid

It’s a personal choice but I think they should get the vaccine.

It’s everyone’s own choice but eventually it may be required for certain things.

It’s everyone’s own choose to be vaccinated or not so I don’t have an opinion.

It’s good

It’s important for both them and others to make this world a better place

It’s irresponsible

It’s their body their choice.

It’s their choice

It’s their choice just don’t bug me about being vaccinated or my wearing a mask

It’s their choice to do so and they assume the risks of it. However if them getting sick causes things to shutdown again, then there’s a problem

It’s their choice to take it or not.

It’s their choice, but I hope they do.

It’s their choice, but then they need to wear a mask EVERYWHERE in public unless they are at least 6ft apart from ANYONE.

It’s there choice

It’s very important that you should.

It’s very worried about that.

Its a good thing to do to help keep others from getting sick.

It’s a personal choice

It’s a personal choice. I would advise getting vaccianted by its each individuals own deicision

its one way to protect covid 19

Its safe for them being around other people

its their choice

Its their choice

its their choice

It’s their choice

It’s their choice but some people have reasons that are conspiracy theories that doesn’t make much sense

It’s their choice, but a dangerous one.

It’s their choice.

It’s their choice. No one should be forced to do something they don’t want to

It’s their choice. Not mine. If they want it they can get it. If they don’t want it, then that’s fine too. None of my business.

It’s their decision, but they have issues with the evaluation of the risk

It’s their decision.

It’s their funeral

It’s their life

It’s their own choice

It’s their own choice if they want to be vaccinated and I respect their opinions. However, they should understand their risks.

It’s their own personal choice whether to do so or not. At the same time the more people that go unvaccinated the longer the pandemic is going to not end completely.

It’s their own right

Its their right

Its there choice

It’s there choice

It’s there choice as a free American, but I would hope more think about getting the vaccine.

It’s up to them

It’s up to them.

It’s up to them. I think everyone should get the vaccine unless they are allergic to it.

Just like voting do your civic duty and get vaccinated please

just waiting for the results of others

Keep my distance from them and doing my best not to get Covid-19

Lack common good

Lack of knowledge or listen to their peers

Let them get vaccinated and help us

Let them go.

majority are doing it for the wring reasons

Making it difficult to go outside more.

Making them feel safe and ensuring them that the vaccine they choose is safe

Maybe they’re afraid to get the shot

Misguided

Misinformed

Mixed

Moronic

Most have bought into the anti-vaxxer rhetoric or the Trump rhetoric of fear that their rights are being taken away or worse. They are jeopardizing the people who truly cannot get the vaccine. They care only for themselves.

Most likely get sick or die.

Most of them wants to get vaccinated but vaccines are not enough

Must get vaccin

My thoughts about people who have not yet been vaccinated are that they are a threat the health of the country and their loved ones around me

My thoughts about the people who have not been Vaccinated is crazy and they are putting their lives& loves in And I strongly emphasize emphasize that they all go and get Vaccinated soon as possible

My thoughts is that I believe they were somehow scared of the consequences

My thoughts on people who have not been vaccinated is that they may not have access to the vaccine and some people still are questioning the mass production as quickly as it was.

N/a

Need to be vaccine let’s them know it not going to change your DNA in writing letters to help with the vaccine shots show them it safe

Need to take care their health

need to take it soon

Negative

Neither here nor there. Its there right to approve or decline getting it.

No comments

No idea

No opinion either way- it’s a personal choice

No thoughts

No thoughts can’t speak for anyone

None

None ít everyone choice

None, I went a while myself b4 getting tha vac, but regardless I feel we still should practice social distancing and limit being out where it can potentially be over crowed

Non-vaccinated people endanger their community and humans worldwide

Not concerned about fellow man.

Not good

Not safe

NOT SURE

not sure, it is there right, cdc and congress should have investagated the WUHAN lab in China, but instead spent millions of dollars on bogus impeachment hearings

Not taking the virus seriously

not very smart

Not worried

Nothing

own choice

People in danger

People make their own decisions about their bodies and their health.

People should take vaccine

people who didn’t get vaccinated they should vaccinate as soon as possible.Because this virus is really very dengerous as we can see.

People who have not been vaccinated think it’s a control issue

People who have the opportunity to get vaccinated yet don’t are being selfish. They don’t care about lives outside of theirs that could be endangered.

People who refuse to get vaccinated is being selfish

Person choice

Personal choice with a relative unknown

Playing with fire

please just do it

Poor choice impacting others

Probably need to be

Problematic

Procrastinators

Pure stupidity

Put down the ciggy and beer, get your ass off the couch, and get vaccinated. Otherwise, go somewhere crowded, catch COVID, and die you worthless paranoid POS.

Putting themselves in danger

Religious beliefs

Reserve judgement about why, just get them vaccinated ASAP.

Ridiculous. We cant get back to normal unless we get everyone safe. Lies and conspiracies are rampant and getting way out of control

Risky

rural people

Sad

Sad for them

Sad, hope they will do it

Saving my family because family everything

Science is real, people learn the hard way.

Self centered

Selfish

selfish

Selfish

selfish

Selfish and in denial.

Selfish and letting putting politics above the health of the country

Selfish and uneducated

Selfish don’t care about their fellow man

selfish people thinking of them selves

Selfish people who don’t care that they have allowed this virus to mutate into a more dangerous form, and put everyone at greater risk. They should not be allowed to participate in society or send their children to school.

Selfish!!

Selfish, ignorant

Selfish, inconsiderate and making a vaccine political instead of life saving

Shameful, selfish, dumb

Should be a personal choice.

Silly.

Since it is a viral disease,we should all be vaccinated to stay healthy to avoid this epidemic.

Some else’s personal choice is not my concern

Some may have medical or religious reasons but most are just considerate of others

Some may have specific medical reasons. Most are stubbornly misinformed angry zealots

Some may have valid reason, I pray for those that believe it is in any way dangerous

Stay away from them

Stay far away from me

Stupid

Stupid jerks

Stupid selfish

Stupid.

Sudden death

Taking a big risk

That is their right

That people don’t are irresponsible

That they are being stupid. We all need to get it to keep it under control

That was some reason

That’s they choice

That’s on them

That’s their problem

that’s their right, it is called Freedom!

the are lazy

The first time he was in a t

The government should continue to pay medical costs for vaccinated people but unvaccinated should be on their own and be responsible for these bills.

The ones who choose not to are part of the reason the virus is mutating and Covid cases are rising. I’m frustrated!

The people who have not taken a vaccine or in grave danger. Everyone needs to get the shot.

The unvaccinated are the reason that we have the Delta very end and it’s taking more lives in the United States today people that are unvaccinated are uneducated and they should not be allowed to be out where those that are vaccinated are

Their body, their choice

Their body, their choice. Vaccine was rushed to production and may have side effects or unknown consequences

Their business

Their business.

Their choice

their choice

Their choice

Their choice but probably not logical

Their choice, but I wish they would consider others who cannot stave off an infection.

Their choice.

Their choice. I don’t have a say.

Their Choice. Since there have been no long term studies and this is not FDA approved I understand those that don’t get vaccinated

their choose

there choice no one should make them if they do not want to

There is no excuse not to be vaccinated if you are over 12 years old.

There need to

They afraid of long term consequences

They are a problem.

They are afraid

They are at higher risk in catching the virus compared to those who did.

They are back dated

They are being extremely selfish

They are being selfish by not protecting themselves and others

They are believing something that is not true. Stupid stupid people

They are bold

They are cautious and smart. Not enough is known about lasting effects

They are crazy

they are dangerous

They are dragging out the end of this pandemic and have become part of the problem.

They are dumb as hell

They are dumb the vaccine is the only thing that can save us

They are dumb. The government should mandate and make everyone get at least 1 dose of the shot.

They are endangering other people’s lives.

They are evil and keeping the pandemic going. Murderers.

They are fools and deserve whatever they get

THEY ARE FOOLS AND UNAMERICAN, SELFISH

They are future candidates for Darwin Awards.

They are giving the virus time to mutate into something worse. Children and immune-compromised adults can’t be vaccinated. In order to protect them through herd immunity, all elligible adults have a moral obligation to be vaccinated. The anti-vaxers are deluded and live in some kind of alternate reality.

They are helping spread covid more and more

They are idiots

they are idiots and are exasperating the covid problem

They are Idiots unless doctor says no due to health reasons

They are idiots who are going to cause another wave.

They are ignorant

They are in danger.They should get vaccinated as soon as possible.

They are irresponsible

They are irresponsible and ignorant of reality. They will hurt themselves and others for no reason

They are irresponsible and ignoring science, unless they have a legitimate medical condition that prevents them from getting vaccinated. Vaccines are safe and important and about more than just yourself.

They are irresponsible cowards if they don’t have a legitimate medical reason for not being vaccinated yet

they are just stupid

They are just stupid and crazy

they are letting this virus spread by being uninformed about the vaccine.

They are making a very poor choice and are having a negative impact Jon all of us

They are making it bad for everyone, they are brainwashed. If they get covid they should NOT take up our hospital resources, they should be left to fend for themselves. There is NO reason the whole planet should not be vaccinated

They are making the pandemic last longer and hurting everyone else including themselves.

They are misinformed and selfish people.

They are misinformed. It has become a political identity and group identity than really based in any type of science. I think its directly been fueled by politicians muddying the water and Facebook misinformation.

They are more at risk

They are narcissistic, selfish, and ignorant.

They are not doing anything to upset Trump.

They are not very smart

They are not worried about infecting other people.

They are patiently waiting for it

They are playing with fire

THEY ARE PLAYING WITH THEIR LIVES

They are playing with there lives

They are potentially signing their death warrant, but it is their right to do so.

they are pretty cool

They are putting others at risk.

They are putting others at risk. We may have to be shut down again. I would be very upset. I am wanting to travel.

They are putting the rest of us at risk

They are putting themselves and others in danger

They are putting themselves in danger and others

They are responsible for the spread of the Delta Variant

They are risking their lives and the lives of others. It’s disrespectful to healthcare workers who have already been through hellâ€¦

They are risking their lives and the lives of others. This dx is serious and deadly. GET Vaccinated asap!

They are scares

They are self-centered .

They are selfish

They are selfish and stupid

They are selfish and very stupid

They are smart- I was vaccinated and i caught COVID- no reason for vaccination- we need herd immunity- it will always be here like the flu- tike to move on

They are stupid

they are stupid

They are stupid an killing people

They are the reason that this virus will never get under control

They are thoughtless and selfish

They are un-American.

They better do it now

they can be easily sick and very easy to get a covid

They can not possibly understand the science. It is in their best interest and the best interest of the people they love to be vaccinated. I honestly don’t understand the hesitation at this point. It has been a year of death, of refrigerated trucks holding the overflow of corpses…honestly. Whats it gonna take?

They can still get sick and cause danger to the people around them

They do not care if they catch the virus.

They do not understand, that the Virus is real

They don’t know how to read research, gullible and easily believe misinformation

They don’t understand immunology or how to keep a general population safer. They’re selfish and believe that they can stay safe when they’re proven wrong over and over.

They don’t care about others or themselves and don’t care to die

they dont know about there facielites

They don’t think

They dont want to or are afraid to

they had their chance. let them die.

They have a right to choose

They have legitimate health concerns about the vaccine especially with people getting sick and/or dying.

They have the right to choose

They have the right to their own health

They have their own opinions of the vaccine

They have their own rights.

They have their reasons but hopefully they will do what is best

They have to be careful , the virus is real and is really fatal

They have to be vaccinated

they have very stupid reasons and explanations

They have weird conspiracies

They may be unwilling to be vaccinated or they don’t have the means to get vaccinated.

they must be vaccinated

They need more education about the vaccine

They need more information and I pray they stay healthy

They need to

they need to be and quick

They need to be vaccinated to avoid the spread

they need to do it — if not for themselves for everyone else

They need to do the right thing and get vaccinated.

They need to get and stop being stupid.

They need to get it done

They need to get the vaccine as soon as possible

They need to get vaccinated

They need to get vaccinated so they won’t get sick or even die.

they need to get with the program

They need to go ahead and get vaccinated.

They need to hurry up and get vaccinated if they can

They need to make informed decisions for themselves, not bow to pressure, there are other options and measures that can be taken

they need to step up and get the shot

They need to think about other people around them

they need to wake up and get vaccinated

They need to wear masks and not be allowed to do things like enter theme parks ect until they get vaccinated

They probably should get it but the government has no right to force them

they provide best service in short period of time

They really need to get

They really should just so we can slow down the progression of the virus

they really upset me because we could control it better if everyone would get vaccinated

they shoudl get vaccinated

They should

They should and stop the spread of covid

They should be excluded from care in the ER if they test positive for covid and have severe symptoms. Let them die.

They should be forced to get the vaccine.

They should be quarantined

they should be vaccinated quickly

They should be vaccinated!

They should before more people die

They should but it is their choice

They should do it

They should get it at least to make sure they are ok and safe

They should get it for the other safeties of other people and themselves

They should get it. They are becoming variant factories.

They should get itâ€¦.delta variant is highly contagious!

They should get the shot as soon as possible

They should get the vaccine already

They should get the vaccine.

They should get vaccinated

they should get vaccinated

They should get vaccinated

they should get vaccinated

They should get vaccinated as soon as possible

They should get vaccinated asap

They should get vaccinated immediately

They should get vaccinated so we can get back to normal

They should get vaccinated unless they have medical or religious reasons

They should get vaccinated.

They should get vacinated

They should go and get vaccinated before it too late

They should go do it

They should help everyone out and get it done

They should just do it

They should just get it already

They should so we could be protected from covid

they should stay at home

They should take it as soon as possible

They should take it quickly

They should take the vaccine right now

They should take their health seriously

They should try for themselves so that they can be able to know what works for them.

They should try to get it

They sucks for not being vaccinated

they were very bad people

They will die

They’re idiots and selfish. Just because they don’t want it doesn’t take away from the threat it could present to those with autoimmune deficiencies.

They’re idiots. You can’t fix stoopid.

They’re stupid

They’re being irrespsonsible.

They’re contributing to the spread

They’re covering for those who haven’t been vaccinated

They’re crazy

They’re hurting everyone else!

They’re ignorant ass people.

They’re keeping us from reaching herd immunity

They’re not smart and are selfish

They’re not very smart about it

They’re OK

They’re risking their lives and putting others in danger

They’re selfish

They’re Stupid or selfish

think they are not listening to science & are being self centered & irresponsible

thisis verry good andb best

Those are loosing excellent opportunities that is free and available.

Those people need to hurry up and get vaccinated

Those who are yet to be vaccinated are a great threat to themselves and those around them.

thy are risking their lives

Tickers have been arranged in front of them

To each his own. I would not ever allow myself to be subject to a Global Pandemic with symptoms that could cost me my life.

To each its own

To each their own

to each their own, stay inside then,

TRUMP SUPPORTER IS NOT YET BEEN VACCINATED.

TRUMP SUPPORTER IS NOT YET BEEN VACCINATED

Uneducated

Uneducated or not willing to admit they are wrong.

Uninformed or mental midgets

Unless they are unable to be vaccinated, they are idiots

Unless they have an actual medical reason not to, it’s everyone’s responsibility to get vaccinated to control the pandemic and get life back to normal.

Unsafe to be around

Up to them

vaccinated as soon as everybody.

Vaccinated is most important to us.It helps us fit.

vaccinated is very important for refuse Corona virus

Vaccination is very important

Very irresponsible and putting others at risk

Victims of a poor media.We need to bring back the FCC Fairness Doctrine. ASAP! Stop dividing!

Waiting on the right time

Waiting to see those vaccinated what kind of efficacy

Ware you mask

Whatever

who has evaluated that following vaccines

Wilfully ignorant and harmful to the common good.

Wish they would

Wish they would but it is their decision not the governments

Worries that will always to this who aren’t eligible

yall need to go get yall shot

yes no effects many peoples fake news

Your choice

36% Trust Dems on Election Reform, 32% Trust GOP, 22% Neither

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to reforming election practices, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% of voters trust Democrats, 32% trust Republicans and 22% don’t trust either party.

Among Independent voters, 62% don’t trust either of the major political parties.

Most voters with a postgraduate degree strongly trust Democrats more than Republicans. However, a modest plurality of all other voters places more trust in the GOP.

The survey also found that 59% believe the states should return to the regular voting laws that existed before the pandemic. Just 26% disagree. The Department of Justice recently issued guidance suggesting that a return to the pre-pandemic rules would not always be seen as legal.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans favor a return to pre-pandemic rules. Democrats are evenly divided: 40% favor that approach and 43% do not.

Among Independent voters, 46% favor a return to pre-pandemic rules while 25% are opposed.

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Methodology

61% Say Biden Likely To Raise Middle Class Taxes

Posted on August 10, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters believe it is likely that the Biden Administration will raise taxes on middle class Americans. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 27% consider it unlikely and 12% are not sure.

These results are especially stunning given that, before being asked the question, survey respondents were reminded that President Biden has promised not to raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000 a year.

Republicans overwhelmingly believe tax hikes are coming for the middle class. Democrats are evenly divided with a very modest plurality expecting tax hikes. Among Independent voters, 44% say the middle class taxes are likely while 25% disagree.

Most voters (53%) believe that tax hikes hurt the economy while just 23% believe they help. Voters who prefer Trump like policies and Traditional Republican policies share a strong believe that tax hikes are bad for the economy.

However, there is a divide on this issue between Sanders’ Democrats and Traditional Democrats. By a 42% to 31% margin, those who favor Sanders like policies believe tax hikes are good for the economy. By a mirror image 42% to 27% margin, Traditional Republicans believe they are bad.

Voters with a postgraduate degree are evenly divided as to whether tax hikes or good or bad for the economy. Among all other voters, most believe tax hikes hurt the economy.

Data released earlier shows that 59% of voters nationwide believe increased government spending leads to inflation. That helps explain why just 22% of voters want Congress and the President to increase federal spending next year.

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Methodology

59% Believe Increased Government Spending Leads to Inflation

Posted on August 10, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters nationwide believe increased government spending leads to inflation. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that only 14% disagree and 27% are not sure.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans see a connection between spending and inflation. Democrats, by a 45% to 21% margin, tend to agree. Among Independent voters, 45% believe more government spending leads to inflation while 11% do not.

These numbers help explain why just 22% of voters want Congress and the President to increase federal spending next year. Thirty-nine percent (39%) want spending to be cut and 21% would like it to remain about the same. That finding reflects a marked change from a year ago when just 14% of voters wanted the government to stop spending more money.

Among voters with a postgraduate degree, 42% want the government to increase spending while 36% would prefer spending cuts. Among all other voters, just 18% want more government spending and 40% are opposed.

The survey was conducted while the U.S. Senate was debating an infrastructure bill that will increase both federal spending and deficits. Additionally, the Senate is expected to soon take up a much larger spending bill through the budget reconciliation process.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters believe more government spending helps the economy while 38% believe it hurts. Over the past several decades, American voters have generally been even more negative concerning the impact of government spending.

It is possible that the pandemic has brought about a fundamental change in perceptions. However, it is also possible that these numbers indicate the beginning of a return to more normal skepticism about the role of government.

Other data shows that 53% of voters believe tax hikes are bad for the economy.

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Methodology

29% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us; 43% Fear It Is Still to Come

Posted on August 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Following a dramatic collapse over two months, public confidence concerning the pandemic has stabilized. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 29% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s up a point from a week ago. However, confidence is still down five points from a two weeks ago and down 27 points over the past two months.

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters now believe the worst is yet to come. That’s down two points from a week ago, but up five from two weeks ago, and up 23 points since late May.

The last two weeks have recorded the most pessimistic assessments measured since December of last year. Beginning with the rollout of the vaccines in January, confidence grew fairly steadily for five months.

Women, by a 46% to 23% margin, believe the worst is yet to come. Men are more evenly divided: 39% fear that the worst is still to come while 35% of men believe the worst is behind us.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Hispanic voters believe the worst is behind us. That view is shared by 30% of White voters and 20% of Black voters.

Other data shows that 57% of voters are comfortable attending indoor social events without masks. Perhaps surprisingly, that figure is virtually unchanged since May.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters oppose new lockdowns. That total includes 34% who want to see a further easing of restrictions.

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Methodology

39% Believe Reporters Would Release Information That Contradicts Their Own Political Views

Posted on August 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If a reporter uncovered some information that contradicted their ideological and partisan political views, just 39% of voters believe they would report that information honestly. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% believe they would hide it and 27% are not sure.

By a 50% to 26% margin, Democrats believe journalists would report the information even if it contradicted their own views. By a 45% to 31% margin, Republicans take the opposite view. They tend to believe that reporters would hide the information to protect their ideological and partisan views. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Not surprisingly, voters who prefer Trump-like policies are skeptical. By a 47% to 30% margin, they believe the reporters would hide the information. The much smaller number of voters who prefer traditional Republican policies are evenly divided: 41% believe the information would be reported and 38% believe it would be hidden.

Most urban voters believe reporters would release the information even though it contradicted their own views. A plurality of rural voters take the opposite view and suburban voters are evenly divided.

Two-thirds (64%) of voters with a postgraduate degree trust the reporters to release the information. Among all other voters, opinion is fairly evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from July 26-27, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

57% Comfortable Attending Indoor Social Events Without Masks

Posted on August 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters would feel comfortable going without a mask to an indoor restaurant, bar, or other social settings with a large number of people. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% would be uncomfortable.

These numbers are essentially unchanged since late May. That stability is interesting for a variety of reasons. In late May, 56% were confident that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That figure has fallen to 28% today. Additionally, the CDC guidance on wearing masks has changed, a fact that 61% of voters recognize.

One possible explanation for this is that a large number of people are simply not following the CDC guidelines. Among those who recognize that the CDC recommends even vaccinated people to wear masks at indoor social events, 42% are comfortable attending such events without a mask. That’s consistent with data from a few months ago showing that just 33% of voters have been following the CDC guidance very closely.

The survey also found that a significant number of voters may have hypocritical attitudes about mask wearing and social distancing.

For example, among voters who think we need to re-impose stricter lockdowns, 30% are personally comfortable attending indoor social events without a mask. Additionally, among those who say they’d like to live in a state with strict mask and social distancing guidelines, 31% are personally comfortable attending indoor events without a mask.

While the practice of setting strict rules for others and violating them has generally been associated with government officials, these results suggest that between 9% and 13% of voters want strict guidelines but are personally comfortable violating them.

Another possible explanation is that these voters may be engaging in virtue signaling. While they are comfortable without masks, they may feel the need to voice support for stricter guidelines due to peer pressure within their social group.

Overall, 31% of voters want to re-impose strict mandates. Sixty-two percent are opposed.

Additionally, 48% of all voters would rather live in a state where masks and other social distancing rules are up to individuals and local businesses. Nearly as many–44%– would rather live in a state with strict mask mandates and social distancing rules.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 29-31, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 231 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

62% Oppose New Lockdowns; 31% Want Them

Posted on August 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thinking about the situation where they live 62% of voters are opposed to re-imposing stricter lockdowns. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 34% who favor a further easing of pandemic restrictions and 28% who say no change is needed.

Just 31% think it’s time to impose new lockdowns.

A majority of Republicans (79%) and Independents (58%) are opposed to further lockdowns. Democrats are evenly divided: 48% want more lockdowns while 46% do not.

Most voters who have already been vaccinated–58%–oppose more lockdowns. So do 82% of those who say they will never get vaccinated.

The survey also found that 48% of all voters would rather live in a state where masks and other social distancing rules are up to individuals and local businesses. Nearly as many–44%– would rather live in a state with strict mask mandates and social distancing rules.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans would rather live in a state where individuals and businesses are trusted to determine masking and social distancing rules. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Democrats take the opposite view and would rather live in a state with strict mask mandates and social distancing rules.

Independent voters, by a 53% to 26% margin, prefer a state where individuals and businesses make their own decisions.

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Methodology

Confidence Collapse Continues: Just 28% Believe The Worst of the Pandemic is Behind Us

Posted on August 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

The stunning collapse in confidence that the pandemic is behind us continues. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 28% of voters now believe we’ve put the worst behind us. That’s down six points from a week ago, down nine points from two weeks ago and down 28 points over the past two months.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters now believe the worst is yet to come. That’s up seven points from a week ago, twelve points from two weeks ago, and up 25 points since late May.

These numbers are the most pessimistic measured since December of last year. Beginning with the rollout of the vaccines in January, confidence continually grew for five months.

By a 62% to 17% margin, government employees believe the worst is yet to come. Private sector workers are more evenly divided.

Those who say they will never get vaccinated are a bit less pessimistic than other voters. However, even those voters, by a 44% to 36% margin, tend to think the worst is yet to come.

Republicans are now evenly divided as to whether the worst is behind us or yet to come. A majority of Democrats and solid plurality of Independents fear the worst is in the future rather than the past.

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Methodology

69% Want Students Taught That America Was Founded on Ideals of Freedom, Equality, and Self-Governance

Posted on August 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters believe students should be taught that “America was founded on the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Our nation has a tragic history of racial injustice, but we have made and continue to make progress.”

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 18% disagree and believe students should be taught that “America was founded on the ideas of racial oppression and white supremacy. We must recognize that the founders of our nation were racist and reject the system of government they created.” Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure which is more appropriate.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Hispanic voters believe the nation was founded upon the noble ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Seventy-four percent (74%) of White voters agree.

However, among Black voters, a modest plurality (42%) believe students should be taught that the nation was found upon racial oppression and white supremacy. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Black voters support teaching that America was founded on more noble ideals. Given the nation’s history, that result is far from surprising.

The survey also revealed public confusion over the term “Critical Race Theory.” Among those who have a Very Favorable opinion of Critical Race Theory, 62% believe students should be taught that “America was founded on the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.” That conflicts with what many see as the political definition of Critical Race Theory.

Data released earlier showed that 93% of voters recognize that racism has played a major role in American history. That’s consistent with the question in this survey acknowledging that our nation has a tragic history of racial injustice.

Other data showed that 62% believe the US offers more freedom & equality than most Nations. That’s consistent with the question in this survey recognizing the history of racism, but also that we have made and continue to make progress. Seventy percent (70%) believe that the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s moved America closer to living out its founding ideals.

In raw political terms, voters strongly prefer a candidate supporting freedom & equality over one promising social justice and equity.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 29-31, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 231 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

29% Believe Social Media Companies Provide Neutral Platform

Posted on August 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 29% of voters believe large social media companies like YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter provide a neutral platform for everyone to use. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 51% believe they give a preference to content they approve of and penalize content expressing different views. Twenty percent (20%) are not sure.

When viewing content on social media, 51% have been notified by their social media platform that the content provides information that may not be reliable. Thirty-three percent (33%) have not.

Nearly half of all voters (46%) say they personally know someone who has been temporarily or permanently banned from a social media platform. A nearly identical number–45%– do not.

Republicans, by a 66% to 19% margin, believe the social media companies give preference to content they like while Democrats are evenly divided on the question. Among Independent voters, just 25% believe social media companies provide a neutral platform while 48% take the opposite view.

Those with a postgraduate degree are evenly divided on the question. Most other voters believe the social media platforms penalize content expressing different views.

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Methodology

52% Want No Restrictions On Voting; 73% Favor Photo ID Requirements

Posted on July 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters believe “voting is a fundamental right for every adult U.S. citizen and should not be restricted in any way.” A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 39% believe instead that “voting is a privilege that comes with responsibilities and can be limited if adult U.S. citizens don’t meet some requirements.”

The survey also found that 73% of voters believe all voters who cast their ballot in-person should be required to show a photo ID before voting. Just 17% disagree.

Additionally, 74% favor a proposal that would require all mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day. Seventeen percent (17%) are opposed.

These results suggest that voters do not see common sense voting rules as a restriction on voting.

In fact, among those who say there should be no restrictions on voting, 69% favor photo ID requirements and 70% believe all ballots should be received by Election Day.

The question about whether voting is a right or a privilege was modeled after a similar question asked by the Pew Research Center. The only difference is that the Scott Rasmussen question included a not sure option. However, the results from both surveys were very similar.

The Pew Center study found that 56% of voters are confident that those not legally qualified to vote are prevented from casting a ballot. Forty-two percent (42%) lack such confidence.

There is far more confidence in another aspect of the voting process. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters believe that everyone who is eligible and wants to vote is able to cast a ballot. Just 23% disagree.

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Methodology

31% Say Personal Finances Getting Better; 26% Worse

Posted on July 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters nationwide say their own personal finances are getting better. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 26% take the opposite view, saying their finances are getting worse. Forty-one percent (41%) say their finances are remaining about the same, while 3% are not sure.

These figures are almost identical to the results from a month ago when 32% said their finances were getting better while 26% said worse.

The current totals include 11% who say their finances are getting much better and 7% who say much worse.

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters rate their own personal finances as good or excellent. That’s up three points from a month ago but down three points since April.

Seventeen percent (17%) now rate their personal finances as poor. That figure is unchanged from a month ago, but up three points from April.

There is a stunning gap in economic perceptions between those with a postgraduate degree and the rest of the nation.

Among those with advanced degrees, 63% say their finances are getting better and just 10% say worse.
Among those with a bachelor’s degree, the numbers are much more evenly divided: 31% better and 25% worse.
Among those without a college degree, 22% believe their finances are getting better while 29% say the opposite.

Among voters who prefer policies like those of former President Trump, 21% say their finances are getting better while 37% say the opposite.

The stability in terms of personal finances stands in stark contrast to the collapse in confidence about the pandemic. In late May, 56% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us. That figure has fallen to 34% today. That’s a 22-point decline in just two months.

Throughout much of 2020, there was a correlation between pandemic concerns and economic confidence. It remains to be seen whether that correlation will continue in 2021. For much of this year, the arrival of the vaccines sparked growing confidence that we were putting the pandemic behind us.

In terms of responding to declining confidence about the pandemic, there will be significant political challenges. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters believe the lockdowns did more harm than good. That view is shared by a majority of Republicans and Independents. However, most Democrats take the opposite view.

In response to rising pandemic concerns, it seems likely that the Biden Administration will face calls for strong action from the Democratic party base. However, those calls to action may well be viewed negatively by most other voters. For example, the call for a door-to-door campaign to encourage more vaccinations is opposed by 74% of the target audience.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 27-28, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 232 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

62% Of the Vaccinated See The Unvaccinated as a Personal Threat; 72% of Unvaccinated Disagree

Posted on July 29, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters who have received the COVID vaccine consider the unvaccinated to be a threat to their own health and safety. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 72% of the unvaccinated disagree.

Overall, 44% of voters see the unvaccinated as a personal threat while 42% do not.

Most Republicans (61%) and Independents (51%) do not see the unvaccinated as a threat. However, 65% of Democrats take the opposite view.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of those with a postgraduate degree see the unvaccinated as a personal threat. A plurality (45%) of all other voters disagree.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 271were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

47% Would Take Spaceflight If Offered the Chance

Posted on July 29, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If they were offered—at no cost– the chance to take a trip into space and orbit the earth, 47% of voters say they’d be likely to do so. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 45% would not and 8% are not sure.

The totals include 28% who would be Very Likely to take the trip and 32% who say they would be Not at All Likely to take advantage of that opportunity.

Most men would go into orbit, most women would not. Younger voters are more likely than their elders to go on a spaceflight.

The survey also found that 37% think it’s a good idea for individuals and private companies to launch space flights. Twenty-four percent (24%) say it’s a bad idea and 22% say neither good nor bad.

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Methodology

63% Want Schools to Re-Open This Fall; 24% Disagree

Posted on July 29, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters want schools in their area to re-open this fall. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% disagree and believe students should continue to take virtual classes from their homes. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure.

Support for re-opening schools comes from 67% of suburban voters, 65% of rural voters, and 54% of urban voters.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of White voters support re-opening the schools. So do 64% of Hispanic voters. However, Black voters are evenly divided: 41% are ready for schools to open while 42% are not.

Modest support for re-opening schools is found even among those voters who believe the worst of the pandemic is yet to come. By a 47% to 38% margin, they reject the idea of keeping students at home for virtual learning. Among those who believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, 83% think schools should re-open.

If schools in a particular area do not re-open this fall, 67% believe parents should have the option to send their children to another school that is holding regular classes. Just 15% disagree.

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Methodology

If They Test Positive for COVID, 67% Expect Quick Recovery With Minor Symptoms

Posted on July 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If they tested positive for COVID, 67% of voters think it’s they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 16% consider it unlikely that they would recover quickly and 17% are not sure.

Those figures include 38% who say a quick recovery is Very Likely and 5% who say Not at All Likely.

Among those who have been vaccinated, 68% are confident they would recover quickly. Among those who say they will never get vaccinated 67% express such confidence.

The survey found that 60% of voters have already been vaccinated and another 5% want to be vaccinated as soon as possible. Fifteen percent (15%) say they will never get vaccinated.

In between are 17% who say they either want to wait and see how the vaccines work or they are in no particular rush to get vaccinated. There lack of urgency likely stems from the fact that, even if they test positive for COVID, they are confident of a quick recovery with only minor symptoms.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Hispanic voters believe they would recover quickly. So do 69% of White voters and 60% of Black voters.

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Methodology

Voters Think Green New Deal More Likely to Destroy Economy Than End Climate Change

Posted on July 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

The Green New Deal is a hot topic in official Washington, but more than a third of all voters have either never heard of it (24%) or don’t know enough to have an opinion about it.

Overall, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% of voters have a favorable opinion of the concept while 30% have an unfavorable view. Those totals include 15% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Green New Deal and 22% with a Very Unfavorable view.

Among those who have heard of the legislative concept, 49% believe it’s at least somewhat likely to destroy the U.S. economy. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disagree and 13% are not sure.

Only 38% think the plan is even somewhat likely to stop climate change. Forty-nine percent (49%) say it is unlikely to achieve that goal.

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Methodology

Generic Ballot: Democrats 41% Republicans 38%

Posted on July 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 38% would vote for the Republican. Those numbers are unchanged from a month ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 7% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

In early May, the Democrats were up by just a single point (41% to 40%). The month before, President Biden’s party enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

Democrats lead by a wide 60% to 29% margin among voters with a postgraduate degree. Among all other voters, the numbers are evenly divided: 40% favor the GOP and 38% favor the Democrats.

Democrats have a 57% to 25% advantage among Urban voters. Republicans lead among Suburban and Rural voters.

The Democratic advantage has held steady despite a collapse in confidence about the pandemic. In late May, 56% believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us. That optimism has now fallen to 34%. That’s a 22 point decline over the past two months. Confidence is now at the lowest level since the vaccines became available. In fact, for the first time since January, a plurality (38%) believes the worst is yet to come.

Looking back over the past year or so, 55% of voters agree that “Despite good intentions, shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good.” Just 38% disagree and 7% are not sure.

On this topic, there is a racial divide within the Democratic Party. White Democrats, by a 65% to 32% margin, reject the idea that lockdowns did more harm than good. Black Democrats and Other Democrats are evenly divided.

During the pandemic, government officials exercised extraordinary power over the lives of individual Americans. The survey also found that 62% are worried that many government officials will try to continue exercising such power over individual Americans.

On this topic, there is also a divide within the Democratic Party. White Democrats, by a 57% to 39% margin, are not worried about government officials keeping too much power. Black Democrats, by a 64% to 27% margin, are worried.

Other recent surveys found that 84% of voters are confident they have access to Medical Care for serious health issues. Additionally,81% are at least somewhat satisfied with their choice of doctors.

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Methodology

55% Believe Lockdowns Did More Harm Than Good; 38% Disagree

Posted on July 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking back over the past year or so, 55% of voters agree that “Despite good intentions, shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good.” A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% disagree and 7% are not sure.

Those totals include 34% who Strongly Agree and 20% who Strongly Disagree.

Just over a year ago, 41% thought the lockdowns did more harm than good. So, the current numbers reflect a 14 percentage point increase in that number.

As on most pandemic related topics, there is a partisan divide. Most Republicans (76%) and Independents (51%) agree that the lockdowns did more harm than good. However, most Democrats (57%) disagree.

There is, however, a divide within the Democratic Party. White Democrats, by a 65% to 32% margin, reject the idea that lockdowns did more harm than good. Black Democrats and Other Democrats are evenly divided.

Once again there is a partisan divide and a divide within the Democratic Party. White Democrats, by a 57% to 39% margin, are not worried about government officials keeping too much power. Black Democrats, by a 64% to 27% margin, are worried.

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Methodology

Plurality Now Believes Worst of Pandemic is Yet to Come

Posted on July 26, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s down three points from a week ago and 22 points over the past two months.

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% of voters believe the worst is still to come. That’s up five points from a week ago and up 18 points since late May.

This is the first time since the vaccine rollout in January that a plurality of voters has said the worst is yet to come.

While confidence among all segments of the population has fallen over the past two months, the decline is sharpest among Democrats, and Independents.

Compared to last week, the Republican numbers are essentially unchanged. By a 50% to 25% margin, GOP voters tend to believe the worst is behind us.

However, 47% of Democrats now believe the worst is yet to come, up eight points from a week ago. Just 26% of those in President Biden’s party believe the worst is behind us.

Among Independent voters, 45% believe the worst is yet to come. That’s up 11 points over the past week.

Throughout 2020, public confidence about the pandemic resembled a roller-coaster ride.

Optimism bounced up and down between August and October.
Following the election last fall, confidence fell sharply. In late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. However, following the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, confidence surged.
By late January, 33% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us, while 40% believed the worst was still to come.
Then, in mid-February, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believed that the worst was behind us. At that point, 39% took the optimistic view, while 31% gave a more pessimistic answer.
After that surge, the trend of growing confidence appeared to stall. From mid-February to mid-April, there was little change in public confidence.
Beginning in mid-April, optimism soared once again.
Confidence peaked in late May and we are now witnessing the biggest drop in confidence since last summer.

Data released last week showed that vaccine reluctant voters are strongly opposed to President Biden’s call for a door-to-door campaign. They are the target audience for an effort designed to encourage more vaccinations.

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Methodology

81% At Least Somewhat Satisfied With Their Choice of Doctors

Posted on July 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to finding doctors and medical care, 81% of voters are at least somewhat satisfied with the choices currently available to them. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 16% are not satisfied with the choices and 3% are not sure.

Just 44% of voters are Very Satisfied with the choices available. At the other extreme, 5% are not at all satisfied.

Men are somewhat more satisfied with their options than women. Upper income Americans are more satisfied than those who earn less.

Among those without any health insurance, 45% are satisfied with the choices they have while 41% are not.

Data released earlier showed that 87% of voters are at least somewhat confident that they would have access to appropriate doctors and health care services for routine medical issues. When it comes to serious medical issues, 84% of voters express such confidence.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 15-17, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 179 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Note: No results are shown for those who get their insurance from Obamacare exchanges because the sample size was too small to report.

84% Confident In Access to Medical Care for Serious Issues

Posted on July 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If they had a routine medical issue, 87% of voters are at least somewhat confident that they would have access to appropriate doctors and health care services. When it comes to serious medical issues, 84% of voters express such confidence.

These totals include 51% who are Very Confident they have access to appropriate care for routine issues and 48% who are Very Confident about access to care for serious medical issues.

The results are similar across virtually every demographic group.

It is interesting to note the response among voters with no health insurance. A majority of these voters (51%) are confident they have access to care for both routine and serious medical issues.

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Methodology

Note: No results are shown for those who get their insurance from Obamacare exchanges because the sample size was too small to report.

72% Disapprove of Those Who Occupied Capitol on January 6

Posted on July 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters disapprove of the Trump supporters who broke into the U.S. Capitol on January 6. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that a majority of every measured demographic group shares in that disapproval.

Disapproval comes from 59% of those who prefer Trump-like policies, 63% of conservatives, and 63% of Republicans.

Despite this, 28% of voters mistakenly believe that most Trump supporters supported those who occupied the Capitol. A plurality of Democrats (40%) hold this belief.

Only 18% of voters approve of those who occupied the Capitol.

These results are not substantively different from a survey conducted in January. However, the negative views have softened a bit. In January 82% voiced disapproval, ten points higher than the current totals. Also, in January, 75% Strongly Disapproved. That figure is down to 58% today.

The decline in unfavorable ratings is found across the board.

Among Democrats, 81% now disapprove. That’s down from 89% in January.
Among Republicans, there was also an 8-point decline (from 71% to 63%).
There was a 15-point decline in unfavorables among Independents (from 83% to 68%).

These numbers perhaps suggest a slight fading of interest in the story. The survey found that 38% of voters consider the topic Very Important in terms of how they will vote in the midterm elections. Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats say it’s Very Important along with 22% of Republicans and 20% of Independents.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters consider the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol a major threat to democracy. A slightly larger number–55%– believe letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy. Twenty-four percent (24%) see the 2017 shooting of Republican members of Congress at a softball practice as a major threat to democracy. Eighteen percent (18%) believe requiring voters to show photo identification before voting is such a threat.

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Methodology

49% Know Someone Who Had An Abortion

Posted on July 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters know of close friends or relatives who have had an abortion. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% do not and 10% are not sure.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of women know someone who had an abortion along with 46% of men.

The totals include 49% of those who attend church or other religious services every week, 46% of those who attend once or twice a month, and 51% of those who attend occasionally, rarely, or never.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of those with a college degree know someone who has had an abortion. Among those without a degree, that figure is 43%.

Data released earlier showed that 36% of voters believe it is too easy to get an abortion in America today. Twenty-six percent (26%) believe it is too hard.

Among those who believe it is too easy, 48% know someone who has had an abortion. Among those who believe it is too hard, 51% say the same.

Given a choice, 56% of voters would support a candidate who said abortion should be allowed only during the first three months of a pregnancy rather than at any point during the pregnancy.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen July 12-13, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

56% Prefer Candidate Who Supports Abortion During First Trimester Only

Posted on July 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice, 56% of voters would support a candidate who said abortion should be allowed only during the first three months of a pregnancy rather than at any point during the pregnancy. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 23% hold the opposite view and 21% are not sure.

Republicans prefer the candidate supporting abortion rights during the first trimester only by a 69% to 13% margin. Independent voters hold the same view by a 50% to 16% margin.

Democrats are more evenly divided: 46% prefer the candidate who supports allowing an abortion only during the first three months while 35% would vote for the candidate allowing an abortion at any time during the pregnancy.

Data released earlier showed that 36% of voters believe it is too easy to get an abortion in America today. Twenty-six percent (26%) believe it is too hard.

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Methodology

36% Say It’s Too Easy to Get An Abortion; 26% Say Too Hard

Posted on July 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters believe it is too easy to get an abortion in America these days. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 26% take the opposite view and believe it is too hard. Twenty-one percent (21%) say the balance is about right and 18% are not sure.

However, among those who say the issue of an abortion is Very Important to their voting decision the numbers look much different. By a 53% to 22% margin, these voters believe it is too easy to get an abortion.

Republicans, by a 59% to 11% margin, believe it is too easy to get an abortion. Democrats, by a 39% to 19% margin, take the opposite view. Independent voters are evenly divided.

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37% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us; Lowest Since January

Posted on July 20, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s down nineteen points over the past six weeks and the lowest level of optimism since late January.

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% take the opposite view and think the worst is still to come. Thirty percent (30%) are not sure.

Confidence fell significantly among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. However, Republicans remain far more upbeat than other voters. By a 49% to 26% margin, Republicans tend to believe the worst is behind us. Democrats, by a 39% to 31% margin, take the opposite view. Among Independent voters, 23% believe the worst is behind us while 34% believe the worst is yet to come.

Throughout 2020, public confidence about the pandemic resembled a roller-coaster ride.

Optimism bounced up and down between August and October.
Following the election last fall, confidence fell sharply. In late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. However, following the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, confidence surged.^[1]
By late January, 33% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us, while 40% believed the worst was still to come.^[1]
Then, in mid-February, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believed that the worst was behind us. At that point, 39% took the optimistic view, while 31% gave a more pessimistic answer.^[1]
After that surge, the trend of growing confidence appeared to stall. From mid-February to mid-April, there was little change in public confidence.^[1]
Beginning in mid-April, optimism soared once again.^[1]
Now, these latest numbers suggest we are witnessing the biggest drop in confidence since last summer.

By a 46% to 31% margin, those who say they will never get vaccinated say the worst is behind us. Those who have been vaccinated are somewhat less upbeat. Still, by a 37% to 32% margin, vaccinated voters narrowly tend to think the worst is behind us. However, 36% to 30% margin, those who are vaccine reluctant believe the worst is yet to come.

Vaccine-reluctant voters include those who want to wait and see how it works before getting vaccinated and those who are in no particular rush to get vaccinated. These results may suggest a significant difference of opinion between those who will never get vaccinated and those who are reluctant to do so at this time.

Data released yesterday show that vaccine reluctant voters are strongly opposed to President Biden’s call for a door-to-door campaign designed to encourage more vaccinations.

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Methodology

74% of Vaccine Reluctant Oppose Biden’s Door-to-Door Vaccination Effort

Posted on July 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

President Biden has called for a door-to-door campaign designed to encourage more people to get the COVID vaccine. However, the proposal is extremely unpopular among the target audience. Seventy-four percent (74%) of vaccine-reluctant voters are opposed to the door-to-door campaign. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 16% are in favor of the plan.

Those totals include 56% who are Strongly Opposed and just 9% who Strongly Favor the campaign.

Whatever the Administration’s intentions, these figures suggest that the door-to-door campaign may work as an effective get-out-the-vote campaign for Republicans.

Vaccine-reluctant voters include those who want to wait and see how it works before getting vaccinated; those who are in no particular rush to get vaccinated; and, those who say they will never get vaccinated.

As you might expect, opposition is strongest among those who say they will never get vaccinated. Eighty-four percent (84%) of them oppose Biden’s plan. That includes 74% who are Strongly Opposed. Still, even among those who are merely reluctant or taking their time, two-thirds (66%) oppose the Biden effort.

Overall, among all voters, opinion is mixed: 43% favor the plan and 48% are opposed. Support comes primarily from the fact that 62% of Democrats like the Biden plan. However, 68% of Republicans and 51% of Independents are opposed.

Voters with a postgraduate degree favor the plan by a 61% to 32% margin. However, a majority of all other voters (51%) oppose the door-to-door effort.

This is yet another issue where the views of those with postgraduate degrees are out of step with the nation at large. For example, these elite voters are evenly divided on a plan that would ban gun ownership for all but police and government officials. Among all other voters, that proposal is opposed by a 69% to 24% margin.

Also, by a 50% to 39% margin, those with a postgraduate degree believe restrictions on gun ownership would do more to reduce violence than having the police crackdown on gang activity would be more effective than placing restrictions on gun ownership. All other voters, by a 56% to 32% margin, reject the elite perspective.

Policies seen as an elitist approach based upon a condescending view of other voters often lead to a strong backlash.

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Methodology

28% Favor Restricting Gun Ownership to Police and Government Officials

Posted on July 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters favor a proposal to prohibit everyone except police and government officials from owning a gun. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 65% are opposed.

Those totals include 14% who Strongly Favor the proposal and 49% who are Strongly Opposed.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans oppose the idea of allowing only government officials to own guns. So do 66% of Independents.

Democrats are more evenly divided. In fact, 43% of those in President Biden’s party support the ban on gun ownership for anyone other than police and government officials. Still, a bare majority of Democrats (51%) are opposed.

Black voters are evenly divided on the question. A majority of White voters and a plurality of Hispanic voters are opposed to allowing only government officials to own guns.

Those with a postgraduate degree are evenly divided. Forty-six percent (46%) favor the gun ban while 48% are opposed. Those without an advanced degree oppose the ban by a 69% to 24% margin.

When it comes to reducing violence in America, 53% of voters believe having the police crackdown on gang activity would be more effective than placing restrictions on gun ownership. Thirty-five percent (35%) take the opposite view.

That’s another issue where voters with a postgraduate degree have views that are significantly different than the rest of the population. By a 50% to 39% margin, those with an advanced degree believe restricting gun ownership is the best way to reduce violence. All other voters, by a 56% to 32% margin, take the opposite view.

Data released earlier found that 55% believe the “defund the police” movement led to increased crime in major U.S. cities.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 8-10, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 231 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

To Reduce Violence, 53% Say Cracking Down on Gang Activity Better Than Restricting Gun Ownership

Posted on July 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

To reduce violence in America, 53% of voters believe having the police crackdown on gang activity would be more effective than placing restrictions on gun ownership. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% take the opposite view and 12% are not sure.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans believe cracking down on gang activity would be more effective. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Democrats believe restricting gun ownership is the better approach. By a 50% to 24% margin, Independent voters see cracking down as gang activity would do more to reduce violence.

As on many issues, voters with a postgraduate degree have views that are significantly different than the rest of the population. By a 50% to 39% margin, those with an advanced degree believe restricting gun ownership is the best way to reduce violence. All other voters, by a 56% to 32% margin, take the opposite view.

Data released earlier found that 55% believe the “defund the police” movement led to increased crime in major U.S. cities.

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Methodology

51% Don’t Know About the 1619 Project

Posted on July 15, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Half of America’s voters (51%) have either never heard of the 1619 project (37%) or don’t know enough to have an opinion about it (14%). A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 29% have strong opinions about the project, evenly divided between those with a very favorable view and a very unfavorable view. Nineteen percent (19%) have softer opinions on the topic, also evenly divided.

The 1619 project, promoted by the New York Times, incorrectly claimed that America’s War for Independence was fought to protect slavery.

Among voters with a postgraduate degree, a solid plurality have a favorable opinion of the 1619 project. A plurality of all other voters have an unfavorable view.

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Methodology

Plurality of Voters Prefer Trump-like Policies

Posted on July 15, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice between four presidential candidates with equal skills and temperament, 32% would prefer a candidate who supported policies like those of former President Trump. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% would like a candidate who supported policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders; 21% favor a traditional Democrat; and, 15% favor a traditional Republican.

Voters under 45 are more likely to support Sanders-like policies. Older voters are more likely to support Trump-like policies.

Among urban voters, a plurality prefer Sanders-like policies. In the suburbs and rural areas, Trump-like policies are the most popular.

Among those with a college degree, a narrow plurality prefers policies like those of Senator Sanders. A solid plurality of those without a college degree prefer policies like those of President Trump.

It’s important to remember that the question focused on the policy preference assuming that the candidates had equal skills and temperament. As a result, it cannot be assumed that someone who supports policies like those of Trump or Sanders would automatically support Trump or Sanders as a candidate.

We have been asking this question regularly since last October. Despite the election results and everything that has happened since, these attitudes have remained remarkably stable. The current results are similar to those found in April.

These numbers show 47% favoring one of the Republican leaning options while 42% prefer a Democratic leaning set of policies. In every update of the survey, the partisan split has remained essentially even. That’s not surprising given that we have had nine consecutive presidential elections where neither candidate has received more than 53% of the vote. It’s the longest such stretch in American history.
On the Republican side, the number preferring Trump-like policies is consistently two to three times as large as the number favoring traditional GOP policies. However, younger GOP-leaning voters are more evenly divided.
On the other hand, the two wings of the Democratic party are always just about evenly divided.

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Methodology

55% Believe Defund the Police Movement Led to Increased Crime

Posted on July 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters believe the “defund the police” movement led to increased crime in major U.S. cities. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% disagree and 21% are not sure.

The belief that the movement led to increased crime is shared by 51% of urban voters, 56% of suburban voters, and 59% of rural voters.

Eighty percent (80%) of Republicans believe that the movement led to increased crime. Independent voters, by a 44% to 20% margin, tend to agree. Democrats are evenly divided on the question.

A connection between the movement and increased crime is seen by 59% of White voters and 59% of Hispanic voters. Black voters are evenly divided.

The survey also found that 31% have a favorable opinion of the defund the police movement while 57% have an unfavorable view. Those totals include 13% with a Very Favorable opinion and 44% with a Very Unfavorable view.

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59% of Voters Have Confidence in U.S. Election Results

Posted on July 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thinking in general about U.S. elections, 59% of voters are at least somewhat confident the votes are accurately counted and the proper person is declared the winner. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% lack such confidence and 5% are not sure.

Those totals include 38% who are Very Confident in the election process and 19% who are Not at All Confident.

Not surprisingly, there is a vast partisan divide on this issue. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democrats express confidence in the system while 63% or Republicans do not. Independent voters are evenly divided: 46% have some level of confidence while 41% do not.

This partisan divide is fairly typical– the party which controls the White House expresses is more likely to consider the process fair. For example, most Democrats still believe that Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner of the 2016 election and most Republicans believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner in 2020. Overall, just 26% of voters believe that the right person was declared the winner in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

The partisan divide helps explain the wildly different perceptions of voting rights’ legislation. Since 9-out-of-10 Democrats have confidence in the system, they see any move to change voting rules as negative. Since Republicans lack confidence in the system, they see a need for improvement. It is likely these positions will be reversed the next time a Republican wins the White House.

Despite the intense partisan polarization, several election reforms are very popular among voters from all partisan and demographic groups:

70% want all mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day.
Sixty-five percent (65%) believe government agencies should be required to report the vote totals from all ballots either on Election Night or the next day.
Seventy-six percent (76%) believe voters should be required to show photo ID before casting a ballot.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe “ballot harvesting” should be outlawed. Twenty percent (20%) disagree and 23% are not sure.

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Methodology

57% Want Ballot Harvesting Banned; 20% Disagree

Posted on July 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters believe “ballot harvesting” should be outlawed. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% disagree and 23% are not sure.

The United States Supreme Court recently upheld an Arizona law banning ballot harvesting.

Another provision of the Arizona law declared that votes cast by an individual in the wrong precinct would not be allowed. That provision was also upheld.

However, while there is strong support for ending ballot harvesting, voters have mixed views about ballots cast in the wrong precinct. Forty percent (40%) believe such votes should be counted while 45% say they should not.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans believe ballots cast in the wrong precinct should not be counted. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Democrats believe those votes should count. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Data released earlier showed that 70% of voters want all mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day. Sixty-five percent (65%) believe government agencies should be required to report the vote totals from all ballots either on Election Night or the next day.

Concerns about the election process are highlighted by the fact that just 26% of voters believe that the right person was declared the winner in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

Seventy-six percent (76%) believe voters should be required to show photo ID before casting a ballot. The ban on photo ID requirements has been one of the most unpopular aspects of the “For The People Act.” That law would also prohibit states from requiring all ballots to be received by Election Day.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters are concerned that giant tech companies can swing an election in favor of their preferred candidate. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters believe letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

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70% Want All Mail-In Ballots Received By Election Day

Posted on July 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy percent (70%) of voters want all mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% are opposed to that requirement and 9% are not sure.

Those totals include 47% who Strongly Favor the Election Day deadline and 11% who are Strongly Opposed.

Requiring mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day is favored by 83% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, and 55% of Independent voters. In fact, that requirement is favored by a majority of every measured demographic group.

The survey also found that 65% believe government agencies should be required to report the vote totals from all ballots either on Election Night or the next day. Eighteen percent (18%) are opposed to such a requirement and 16% are not sure.

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Methodology

Biden Approval Slips to 51%, Down 4 From Month Ago

Posted on July 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% disapprove and 7% are not sure.

Biden’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago and the lowest level of approval yet measured.

The current totals include 29% who Strongly Approve and 32% who Strongly Disapprove. This is the first time the number who Strongly Disapprove has topped the number who Strongly Approve.

The dynamics are very similar to the pattern from President Obama’s tenure. Both presidents started with high levels of approval that slowly drifted downward. For both, the Strong Disapproval first topped Strong Approval in early summer.

Obama’s approval rating drifted down to the high 40s by the fall and remained there for most of his first term. It will be interesting to see whether Biden’s numbers continue to follow that trajectory.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democrats approve of Biden’s performance while 79% of Republicans disapprove. Among independents 41% approve and 37% disapprove.

When it comes to approval of Biden, there is little difference between those who prefer Bernie Sanders-like policies and those who would rather see traditional Democratic polices.

However, there is a wide gap between those who support policies like those of former President Trump and those who prefer traditional Republican policies.

Among those who prefer Trump-like policies, just 13% offer Biden a positive review while 85% give the current president a negative assessment.
Among those who prefer traditional Republican policies, 40% approve of Biden’s performance while 53% disapprove.

The number supporting Trump-like policies is much higher than the number preferring a traditional Republican approach. Among Democrats, the competing Establishment and Populist wings are roughly the same size.

Other recent survey data shows that 28% say 28% Say President Biden has been better than they expected. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say he has bee worse than expected. Looking to Congress, 47% approve of Democrats in Congress while 41% say the same about Republicans in Congress.

One area of significant weakness for Biden has been immigration and the situation at the Southern border. Part of the problem may be that the president refuses to treat it as a serious crisis. Among all voters, Overall, 50% see illegal immigration as a crisis, comparable to the number who see gun violence in that manner.

Other data shows that 70% of voters believe immigration and border control to be a national security issue. Additionally, 60% see the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. Not only that, 58% believe drug cartels have more control of the border than the U.S. government.

Moving forward, this site will continue to update the president’s job approval rating every month or so.

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Methodology

53% Favor Sending Military to Control Southern Border

Posted on July 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

To gain control of the United States’ southern border and reduce illegal immigration, 53% of voters favor sending U.S. military forces to the border. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% oppose that action and 13% are not sure.

The totals include 31% who Strongly Favor sending the military and 18% who are Strongly Opposed.

Data released earlier shows that 70% of voters believe immigration and border control to be a national security issue. Additionally, 60% see the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. Not only that, 58% believe drug cartels have more control of the border than the U.S. government.

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Fifty-nine percent (59%) of rural voters support sending troops to the border. So do 56% of suburban voters and 44% of urban voters.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republican voters favor sending the military while 53% of Democrats are opposed. Among Independents, 49% favor the idea and 27% are opposed.

Among those who prefer Trump-like policies, 82% support sending the military to the border. Just 53% of those who favor traditional Republican policies agree.

Overall, 50% of voters believe illegal immigration to be a crisis. President Biden has so far received relatively low marks for his handling of the situation at the border.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 24-26, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 153 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

47% Approve of Dems in Congress; 41% Say Same of GOP

Posted on July 7, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters nationwide approve of the way Democrats in Congress have performed their role. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% approve of the performance of Republicans in Congress.

Those totals include 20% who Strongly Approve of the Democrats and 11% who Strongly Approve of the Republicans.

Among those who support Trump-like policies, 72% approve of the Republicans in Congress. As for those who support traditional Republican policies, 61% provide such a positive review.

Among those who support Sanders-like policies, 75% approve of the Democrats in Congress. Among those who prefer traditional Democratic policies, 86% offer their approval.

It is interesting to note that traditional Republicans are somewhat less pleased with Republicans in Congress than the more populist voters who prefer Trump-like policies. The reverse dynamic is found among Democrats–their populist voters offer somewhat less approval.

In tracking going back to last October, the number preferring Trump-like policies is consistently two to three times as large as the number favoring traditional GOP. On the other hand, the two wings of the Democratic party are always just about evenly divided.

Among Independent voters, 31% have no opinion of either the Republicans or Democrats in Congress. Twenty-seven percent (27%) approve of the Democrats and 21% say the same about Republicans.

Voters with a college degree are more likely to approve of Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress. The opposite is true for those without a college degree.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 29-30, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

49% Say Border Security Top Immigration Issue; 42% Say Creating Pathway to Citizenship More Important

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe securing control of the US border to stop illegal immigration is more important than creating a pathway to citizenship for people who entered the country illegally. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 42% disagree and believe a pathway to citizenship is more important.

Data released earlier showed that 50% of voters believe illegal immigration to be a crisis.

Not surprisingly, those who believe all immigration is bad for the United States overwhelmingly see securing the border as the top priority. And, those who favor an open borders approach overwhelmingly think the pathway to citizenship is more important.

In between are those with mainstream views on immigration. This group, a solid majority of the voting public, believes that legal immigration is good for the United States and illegal immigration is bad. Among these mainstream voters, 57% say securing the border should be the top priority. Thirty-nine percent (39%) take the opposite view.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans see border security as the top priority. That’s the overwhelming view of those who prefer Trump-like policies. Those who prefer traditional GOP policies are more evenly divided.

On the other side of the aisle, 60% of Democrats see creating a pathway to citizenship as the top goal.

Data released earlier showed that 54% of voters believe the top priority should be given to those with skills that will benefit the United States rather than to those who have relatives in the United States. Just 24% believe family relationships should be the top priority and 22% are not sure.

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Methodology

34% Believe Reporters At Least Try to Be Objective

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters believe that most reporters today try to overcome their personal biases and report accurately on what they see. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 46% believe most reporters don’t even bother trying to overcome their personal biases.

A plurality of Democrats (49%) think most reporters try to be objective. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans disagree.

In recent years, a number of organizations have been created to fact check the media. However, practitioners of this journalistic style are no more trusted than other reporters. Only 30% believe these organizations stick to the facts in a neutral manner. Forty-seven percent (47%) believe they display a partisan bias.

People with a post-graduate degree tend to be more trusting of both reporters and fact-checkers.

Data released earlier showed voters are also skeptical of social media companies. Forty-seven percent (47%) believe social media companies actively supported Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Just 10% believe they actively supported Donald Trump.

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Methodology

54% Believe Immigration Policy Should Be Based Upon Skills, Not Family

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When deciding who should be allowed to enter the United States each year, 54% of voters believe the top priority should be given to those with skills that will benefit the United States rather than to those who have relatives in the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% believe family relationships should be the top priority and 22% are not sure.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans believe preference should be given to those with skills. So do 47% of Democrats and 44% of Independent voters.

The survey also found that just 23% believe there should be no limits placed upon the number of people entering the United States.

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Methodology

42% Believe Social Media Undermines Culture, 34% Disagree

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters believe technology and social media companies like Facebook, Google and Twitter mostly undermine positive culture in America. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% disagree and believe these platforms build up positive culture. Twenty-four percent (24%) are not sure.

There is a massive partisan divide on this question. By a 61% to 16% margin, Republicans believe social media companies undermine positive culture. By a 46% to 28% margin, Democrats believe social media companies build up positive culture.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Independent voters believe the tech platforms undermine culture. Twenty-nine percent (29%) believe they build up culture.

A plurality (46%) of White voters think they undermine culture. A plurality of Black voters (40%) and majority of Hispanic voters (53%) take the opposite view.

Those with post-graduate degrees tend to see the impact of social media companies in a positive light. So do those who consider social media to be Very Important in their own life.

Those without a post-graduate degree and who attach less importance to social media tend to hold the opposite view.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 24-27, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

47% Believe Big Tech Companies Actively Supported Biden in 2020; 10% Say They Supported Trump

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters believe Big Tech companies actively supported Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential election. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 10% think they actively supported Donald Trump.

Twenty percent (20%) believe that the companies remained neutral and 23% are not sure.

In every measured demographic group, more voters believed that the companies supported Biden rather than Trump. Even Democrats, by a 3-to-1 margin, held that view.

Other data showed that 78% of voters believe tech companies like Twitter, Facebook, and Google could swing the results of the election to benefit their preferred candidate. Additionally, 62% believe technology companies have too much influence on our politics and political campaigns.

Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act gives big tech companies special immunity from prosecution for things posted on their platforms. Since they received this immunity from the government, 63% of voters believe they should they be required to abide by the 1st Amendment guarantee of free speech.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters believe it is more important to ensure that social media companies operate fairly rather than protecting the companies from government interference. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% disagree and believe protecting social media companies from government interference is the higher priority.

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Methodology

28% Say Biden Better Than Expected, 27% Say Worse

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters say that, so far, President Biden has been better than they expected. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that a nearly identical number–27%– hold the opposite view. Forty percent (40%) say he’s been about what they expected and 5% are not sure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan difference. By a 45% to 6% margin, Democrats say the president has exceeded their expectations. However, by a 51% to 12% margin, Republicans think he has been worse than they feared.

Most Independent voters (56%) say either that Biden is about what they expected or they don’t know enough to have an opinion.

The fissures within each political party are somewhat visible in this data. Among those who prefer Traditional Republican policies, 20% say Biden is better than they expected. Among those who prefer Trump-like policies, only 9% hold that view.

On the flip side, just 3% of those who favor traditional Democratic policies say the president has been worse than expected. However, among those who prefer Sanders like policies, 10% have been disappointed.

It will be interesting to see if these divides grow over time.

Other recent polling showed that just 15% of voters believe the country will be more unified in a year. Thirty-two percent (32%) expect it to be more polarized.

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Methodology

78% Believe Tech Companies Could Swing Election to Candidate They Like

Posted on July 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters believe tech companies like Twitter, Facebook, and Google could swing the results of the election to benefit their preferred candidate. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 10% found that prospect unlikely.

The totals include 47% who say it’s Very Likely they could swing an election and just 3% who say it’s Not at All Likely.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Republicans believe the tech companies could swing an election. So do 82% of Democrats.

The survey also found that 62% believe technology companies have too much influence on our politics and political campaigns. Just 6% say they have too little influence. Nineteen percent (19%) believe the level of influence is about right.

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Methodology

63% Believe Big Tech Companies Should Be Required to Abide By 1st Amendment

Posted on July 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 13% disagree and 23% are not sure.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe the tech companies should be bound by the 1st Amendment. So do 57% of Democrats and 52% of Independents.

Among those who say social media is Very Important in their life, 75% want to see the tech giants required to provide free speech guarantees.

The survey also found that 61% of voters believe social media companies have an obligation to make positive contributions to our civic life.

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Methodology

68% Say Ensuring Social Media Fairness Tops Protecting Companies from Government Interference

Posted on July 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Those who consider social media Very Important in their lives are evenly divided: 48% say ensuring fairness is most important while 44% want to protect the companies from government interference. Other voters overwhelmingly believe it is more important to ensure that social media companies operate fairly for every citizen.

Those with a post-graduate degree are also more likely than other voters to place a premium on protecting the social media companies from government interference.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of White voters believe fairness is more important. That view is shared by 56% of Black voters and 54% of Hispanic voters.

Overall, among all voters, 61% believe social media companies—which are private businesses—have an obligation to make positive contributions to our civic life. Just 20% disagree.

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Methodology

54% Favor Freedom & Equality Candidate; 29% Prefer Social Justice & Equity Candidate

Posted on July 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice two candidates for Congress, 54% would choose the candidate who campaigned on the need for “freedom and equality” over a candidate who campaigned on the need for “social justice and equity.” A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 29% would prefer the candidate who promoted “social justice and equity.” Seventeen percent are not sure.

As a national objective, 52% prefer “equality” while just 16% favor “equity.” Twenty percent (20%) do not understand the difference and 12% are not sure.

Republicans prefer the “freedom and equality” candidate by a 3-to-1 margin. Independents favor that candidate by a 2-to-1 margin. Democrats also prefer that candidate, but by a narrower 49% to 38% margin.

On this question, there is a significant divide within the Democratic coalition. Those who prefer traditional democratic policies prefer the “freedom and equality” candidate by a 57% to 31% margin. That’s very close to the overall numbers for all voters.

However, those who prefer Sanders-like policies prefer the “social justice and equity” candidate by a 46% to 41% margin.

No other measured demographic group prefers the “social justice and equity” candidate. However, voters who prefer an open-borders immigration policy are pretty evenly divided. Forty-four percent (44%) prefer the “freedom and equality” candidate while 40% go for the “social justice and equity ” candidate.

Those with a mainstream view of immigration policy favor the “freedom and equality” candidate by a 60% to 26% margin.

The mainstream view on immigration policy is defined as those who believe legal immigration is good for the United States but illegal immigration is bad. Over a period of many years, a solid majority of voters have held that view.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 205 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

62% Believe US Offers More Freedom & Equality Than Most Nations, 11% Disagree

Posted on July 4, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

In terms of offering freedom and equality, 62% of voters believe the United States is better than most other nations. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 11% disagree and say the U.S. is worse than most other nations. Seventeen percent (17%) rate our country about the same as most other nations and 9% are not sure.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe the U.S. is better than most nations when it comes to offering freedom and equality. Democrats, by a 57% to 14% margin, agree. Among Independent voters 46% say the U.S. is better than most while 11% say it’s worse.

While voters think our nation is better than most, there is also a recognition that more needs to be done. Just 43% believe the United States today is a land of liberty and justice for all. Forty-two percent (42%) disagree and 15% are not sure.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Hispanic voters see the U.S. as a land of liberty and justice for all. That view is shared by 44% of Black voters and 41% of White voters.

Ninety-three percent (93%) nationwide recognize that racism has played a major role in America’s history. However, just 20% believe America was founded on racism and that we should start over with something new. Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s helped the United States move closer to living out its founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.

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Methodology

41% Believe Giant Tech Companies Help Small Businesses

Posted on July 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters believe big tech companies like Google and Facebook help small businesses. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 28% believe they hurt small businesses while 10% say they have no impact. Twenty-two percent (22%) are not sure.

Democrats, by a 2-to-1 margin, believe that the tech giants help small businesses. Republicans are evenly divided.

Perceptions on this question are closely tied to internet usage. Those who are online constantly are far more likely than others to believe that the tech giants help small business.

Those who say social media is very important in their lives believe the tech platforms help small business by a 69% to 14% margin. Those who say social media is not at all important take the opposite view by a 46% to 23% margin.

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Methodology

77% Recognize July 4th Celebrates Declaration of Independence

Posted on July 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters nationwide recognize that the Fourth of July celebrates the signing of the Declaration of Independence. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 11% mistakenly believe it celebrates the ratification of the U.S. Constitution.

A solid majority of every measured demographic group recognizes the document we are celebrating. However, younger voters are somewhat less likely to be aware of it.

The eloquent rhetoric of the Declaration defined our nation’s ideals as a commitment to freedom, equality and self-governance.

Americans overwhelmingly agree with the notion that governments derive their only just authority from the consent of the governed. Just 23% favor scrapping that approach so that government experts could set policy without the need for voter approval.

As we celebrate America’s noble founding ideals, Americans recognize that our nation has never fully lived up to those ideals. Ninety-three percent (93%) nationwide recognize that racism has played a major role in America’s history. However, just 20% America was founded on racism and that we should start over with something new. Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s helped the United States move closer to living out its founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.

America’s founding commitment to freedom was embedded in the Bill of Rights–the first ten Amendments to the Constitution. That commitment remains strong today, especially when it comes to freedom of speech. Given a choice between allowing free speech even though it is sometimes offensive and inaccurate or having the government determine what speech should be allowed, 80% of voters prefer free speech.

One of the complaints against King George in the Declaration of Independence was that he blocked immigration to the colonies. Today, 60% nationwide believe that legal immigration is good for the United States but illegal immigration is bad. Sixteen percent (16%) favor an open borders approach while 11% want to stop all immigration.

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Methodology

59% Approve of Supreme Court Performance, 25% Disapprove

Posted on July 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters approve of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is performing its job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 25% disapprove and 16% are not sure.

Those totals include 17% who Strongly Approve and 7% who Strongly Disapprove.

These figures are consistent with many years of polling data. The Supreme Court is consistently viewed more favorably than any other branch of government.

Approval comes from 65% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans.

As on many topics, independent voters are less engaged: 40% approve and another 40% are not sure.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Hispanic voters approve along with 62% of Black voters and 59% of White voters.

Voters who prefer the policies of former President Donald Trump or Senator Bernie Sanders offer modestly lower opinions of the Court performance than those who prefer traditional Republican or Democratic policies.

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Methodology

Half See Gun Violence, Illegal Immigration as Crises

Posted on July 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters see gun violence as a crisis in the United States today. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 50% see illegal immigration as a crisis.

Climate change is seen as a crisis by 38%, big tech censorship by 30%, and abortion by 27%.

There are significant partisan differences on all topics.

On gun violence, 74% of Democrats see it as a crisis. That view is shared by 43% of Independents and 34% of Republicans.

On illegal immigration, 73% of Republicans see it as a crisis. Forty-two percent (42%) of Independents and 31% of Democrats.

As for climate change, 54% of Democrats consider it a crisis. Just 27% of Independents and 24% of Republicans agree.

Voters who support policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders are more likely than traditional Democrats to see climate change as a crisis.

Those who support policies like those of former President Donald Trump are less likely than traditional Republicans to see climate change as a crisis.

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Methodology

55% Say Letting Bureaucrats Establish Rules is Major Threat to Democracy

Posted on July 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters believe letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 45% say the same about the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol.

Twenty-four percent (24%) see the 2017 shooting of Republican members of Congress at a softball practice as a major threat to democracy. Eighteen percent (18%) believe requiring voters to show photo identification before voting is such a threat.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans see letting bureaucrats set rules without approval is a major threat. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Democrats view the events of January 6 that way. As for Independent voters, 40% see bureaucratic rule making as a threat and 35% think the assault on the Capitol qualifies as a major threat.

A majority of those with a post-graduate degree (58%) see the January 6 assault as a major threat. Among those highly educated voters, 47% see bureaucratic rule making as a threat.

As for those with a bachelor’s degree or less, a solid majority view letting bureaucrats set rules as a major threat to democracy. Just under half say the same about January 6.

Earlier polling found that 82% of voters disapprove of those who took part in the occupation of the U.S. Capitol. That total included a majority of those who believe President Donald Trump was the legitimate winner of Election 2020.

Other recent polling found similar disapproval of letting bureaucrats establish rules without approval, If government experts and intellectuals recommended a policy that voters strongly opposed, just 19% believe the government follow the policy recommended by experts.

In his most recent column, Scott Rasmussen looked at why Americans distrust government experts.

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Methodology

54% Consider 4th of July One of Nation’s Most Important Holidays

Posted on July 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters consider the Fourth of July to be one of the nation’s most important holidays. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 7% consider it one of the least important and 34% rate it somewhere in between.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) will do something to celebrate the day. That includes 71% who will watch fireworks and 62% who will have a cookout. Thirty-one percent (31%) will watch or participate in a parade and 28% will go to a beach or lake.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters are proud to be an American while 10% are not. Those totals include 63% who are Very Proud and 3% who are Not at All proud.

Pride in the nation is found in all demographic groups. That includes 89% of men and 83% of women. It also includes 89% of White voters, 82% of Hispanic voters and 79% of Black voters.

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Methodology

Generic Ballot: Democrats 41% Republicans 38%

Posted on June 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 38% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 6% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

In early May, the Democrats were up by just a single point (41% to 40%). The month before, President Biden’s party enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

A big wild card in the midterm elections will be independent voters. Currently, 19% of them favor the GOP and 11% would vote for a Democrat. However, 70% would either vote for some other candidate (23%) or are undecided (47%). As always, undecided voters have two decisions to make. The first is whether or not to vote, the second is for whom.

Scott Rasmussen’s most recent column looks at why voters distrust government experts. One stunning figure in the column is that 55% of voters believe that letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

One major example of the underlying distrust can be found in reaction the pandemic lab-leak theory. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that US Government Officials actively tried to cover-up that theory.

Other recent polls show that 32% say their Personal Finances are getting better while 28% have the opposite view. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters believe most executives of giant corporations favor Democrats. Twenty-nine percent (29%) think they prefer the GOP.

Methodology

61% Say Follow the People; 19% Say Follow the Government Experts

Posted on June 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If government experts and intellectuals recommended a policy that voters strongly opposed, 61% say the government should follow the policy preferred by the American people. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% believe the government follow the policy recommended by experts and intellectuals.

A majority or plurality of every measured demographic group thinks the policies preferred by the people should be pursued. However, the numbers are fairly close among those with post-graduate degrees. Just 43% of these voters think the government should follow the public; 33% say the expert recommendations should be followed. Of course, those with post-graduate degrees are more likely to qualify as government experts.

One reason for the distrust is that just 25% of voters believe government experts make policy recommendations based primarily on their professional expertise. A majority (55%) believe they experts make recommendations based upon their own political preferences. On this question, those with a post-graduate degree are evenly divided. A solid majority of all other voters are more skeptical.

Twenty-three percent (23%) would favor changing our system of government so that government experts could set policy without the need for voter approval. However, 66% would oppose that change.

Scott Rasmussen’s latest column touches on this subject and recent examples of public skepticism. The column notes that 55% of voters believe that letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

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Methodology

Why Americans Are Skeptical of Government Experts

Posted on June 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Many years ago, I made a series of presentations at Harvard University. One moment I will never forget came over lunch when a professor asked me why the American people didn’t trust them to lead. After all, she said, that’s what people at the Kennedy School of Government were trained to do.

I was stunned by the question. We live in a nation founded on the premise that governments derive their only just authority from the consent of the governed. The notion that the people should follow the elites is a fundamental rejection of our founding ideals. Besides, I have great faith in the commonsense wisdom of the American people.

Since that long ago lunch, I’ve heard echoes of that professor’s question in many public policy debates. Polling conducted early in the year found that 66% of voters had recently engaged in activities officially discouraged by the CDC. That reality frustrated many public health officials, governors, and mayors. The same dynamic can be found on issue after issue.

In a poll last week, I asked 1,200 Registered Voters what should be done when government experts and intellectuals recommended a policy that voters strongly opposed. Just 19% say that the government should follow the policy recommended by experts and intellectuals. Sixty-one percent (61%) took the opposite view.

Why does this happen?

Partly it’s because the elites and everyday Americans have different perceptions of how experts operate. The elitist perspective is that government experts are strictly guided by knowledge rather than by any personal agenda. In this self-serving view, the experts consider the facts and make the logical conclusion.

However, just 25% of voters believe government experts make policy recommendations based primarily on their professional expertise. A solid majority—55%– believe the policy recommendations made by experts are based upon the experts’ own political preferences.

In other words, voters think that experts often abuse their authority to get the results they want. A vivid current example of this distrust can be found in the possibility that the coronavirus was created in a Wuhan, China laboratory. Not only do most voters think that’s likely, 57% think it’s likely that U.S. government officials actively tried to cover-up the lab-leak theory.

Having grown up in a world skeptical of experts promoting their own agendas, none of this surprised me. But one result from last week’s poll was truly shocking.

I asked voters whether certain activities were a major threat to democracy in the United States. One of the options was “letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters.” Fifty-five percent (55%) said that practice was, in fact, a major threat. That view is shared by 73% of Republicans, 43% of Democrats, and 40% of Independents.

To put that into perspective, a smaller number (45%) believe the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol was a major threat to democracy. While Democrats overwhelmingly see the events of January 6 in that light, Republicans and Independents are more likely to consider rule by bureaucrats as a major threat.

That perspective may also help explain why just 34% of voters believe the federal government today supports the founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.

32% Say Personal Finances Getting Better; 28% Say Worse

Posted on June 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters nationwide say their own personal finances are getting better. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 28% take the opposite view, saying their finances are getting worse. Thirty-six percent (36%) say their finances are remaining about the same, while 3% are not sure.

Those totals include 11% who say their finances are getting much better and 8% who say much worse.

In April, 28% said their finances were getting better while 21% said the opposite. However, that survey question was slightly different. It simply offered respondents choices between better, worse, or about the same. This survey offered a fuller range of choices–much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse.

The wording change was made to pick up more subtle shifts in perceptions of personal finances. This fuller approach will be used going forward. While the numbers are not directly comparable to earlier surveys, the dynamics are similar. Now, and in April, the number saying their finances were getting better modestly outnumbered those whose finances were getting worse.

However, in the June survey, just 43% rated their personal finances as good or excellent. That’s down six points since April. Seventeen percent (17%) now rate their personal finances as poor, up three points from April.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats rate their personal finances as good or excellent. Forty-three percent (43%) of Republicans agree. However, among Independents, just 24% give their own finances such positive marks.

As for the trends, Democrats are more likely to report their finances getting better. Republicans and Independents are more likely to say their finances are getting worse.

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Methodology

33% Believe Most Big Company Execs Favor to Dems, 29% Say GOP

Posted on June 29, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters believe that senior management of giant corporations like Amazon, Google, General Motors and the Bank of America. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 29% disagree and believe most big company execs favor the GOP. Thirteen percent (13%) believe that they don’t favor either party and 26% are not sure.

By a 45% to 24% margin, government employees believe big company execs favor Democrats. Other voters are more evenly divided.

Black voters, by a 45% to 16% margin, believe the execs tend to favor Democrats. Hispanic voters, by a 34% to 23% margin, agree. However, by a narrow 33% to 29% margin, White voters tend to see the big company managers as favoring the GOP.

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15% Expect USA to Be More Unified In a Year

Posted on June 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 15% of American voters expect our nation to be more unified a year from today. That’s down 24% from when President Biden took office and 21% at the end of February.

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% expect the nation to be more polarized in a year. That’s up four points from January but down eight from February. The number expecting things to remain about the same is 36%.

The declining hope for a more unified nation is found primarily among Democrats. As President Biden was assuming office, 35% of Democrats expected the nation to become more unified. A month later, 34% held that few. Now, just 19% of Democrats expect more unity in a year.

A majority of Republicans (51%) expect the country to be more polarized. Two-thirds of Independent voters expect things to remain the same (37%) or are not sure (32%).

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Methodology

57% Think US Government Officials Actively Tried To Cover-up Lab Leak Theory

Posted on June 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think it’s likely that U.S. government officials actively tried to cover-up the possibility that the coronavirus was created in a Wuhan, China, Laboratory. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 26% consider it unlikely and 17% are not sure.

That total includes 35% who say it’s Very Likely and 11% who think it’s Not at All Likely.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans consider a cover-up to be at least somewhat likely. Independent voters, by a 52% to 22% margin, tend to agree. Democrats are more evenly divided: 45% believe U.S. government officials actively engaged in a cover-up while 39% disagree.

The survey also found that 56% of all voters think it’s likely that the Chinese government intentionally created the coronavirus as a biological weapon. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree and 16% are not sure.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (64%) think it’s likely that the coronavirus was developed intentionally. Independent voters, by a 45% to 30% margin agree. Democrats are evenly divided: 43% say it’s likely the virus was intentionally created as a virus while 42% consider that unlikely.

An earlier survey found that just 9% of voters believe journalists were right to dismiss the possibility of a lab lead theory. A plurality of voters believe the media rejected the theory because Donald Trump had suggested it.

Regardless of intent, 66% of voters think it’s likely the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan, China laboratory.

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Methodology

54% Believe Providing Access to Quality Medical Care More Important Than Providing Affordable Insurance for All

Posted on June 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters believe that making sure that every American has access to quality medical care is more important than making sure that every American has affordable health insurance. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 39% take the opposite view and believe providing affordable health insurance is more important.

Most Republicans and Independents believe providing access to care is more important. Democrats are evenly divided.

Just 22% of voters today believe that having affordable health insurance guarantees access to quality health care. That may help explain why 67% of all voters say the healthcare system is badly broken.

Other data shows that 45% of voters believe the United States has a free-market health care system. Only 34% disagree and believe we have a government run system.

Despite the belief of many that we have a free market healthcare system, government sources control 83% of all health care spending.

As for the politics of healthcare, the fact that most are happy with the care they receive is a major obstacle to reform. For these voters, a solid majority, there is little upside to reform and plenty of downside. No matter how bad the health care system is today, there is a rational concern that Congress could make it worse.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 15, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

45% Think US Has Free-Market Healthcare System, 34% Say Government Run

Posted on June 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters nationwide believe the United States has a free-market health care system. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% disagree and believe we have a government run system.

Most voters with a college degree believe we have a free-market system. However, those without a degree are more evenly divided. Most voters over 55 believe we have a free market system while younger voters are evenly divided.

While a plurality believes that we have a free-market system, government sources control 83% of all health care spending. A Cato Institute analysis of data from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid services found that:

46% of all health care spending comes directly from government sources. That’s far more than any other source of funding for the industry.
Another 37% of funding comes from spending supported through substantial tax preferences. Broadly speaking, this includes all employer provided health insurance. The only way to get the tax break is to provide the insurance mandated by the government. Cato calls this “spending subject to government coercion.”

Data released earlier shows 48% rate the U.S. healthcare system as good or excellent.

However, results from other questions suggest a fair amount of confusion on this topic. On the negative side, 67% of all voters say the system is badly broken. More positively, 71% are happy with the medical care they receive.

Other data recently released shows that just 22% believe that having affordable health insurance guarantees access to quality health care.

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48% Say Health Care System is Good or Excellent

Posted on June 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters rate the U.S. healthcare system as good or excellent. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% say it is just fair while 19% give it a rating of poor.

However, results from other questions suggest a fair amount of confusion on this topic. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of all voters say the system is badly broken. Somewhat surprisingly, among those who rated the system as good or excellent, 50% also say it’s badly broken.

While public opinion of the overall health care system is fairly negative, 71% are happy with the medical care they receive. The fact that most are happy with the care they receive is a major obstacle to reform. For these voters, a solid majority, there is little upside to reform and plenty of downside. No matter how bad the health care system is today, there is a rational concern that Congress could make it worse.

Other data recently released shows that just 22% believe that having affordable health insurance guarantees access to quality health care.

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22% Believe Everyone With Health Insurance Has Access to Quality Care

Posted on June 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters nationwide believe everyone with health insurance has access to quality care. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 62% disagree and say having insurance doesn’t guarantee access to quality care. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of urban voters believe having insurance means having access to care. Just 19% of rural voters and 17% of suburban voters agree.

Thirty percent (30%) of men think insurance means access to care. Just 14% of women share that view.

The survey also found that 39% of voters believe government healthcare regulations increase the profits of health insurance companies while 18% believe those regulations reduce insurance company profits. Eleven percent (11%) believe they have no impact and 32% are not sure.

Data released earlier showed that 67% believe the health care system is badly broken.

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Methodology

67% Say Health Care System is Badly Broken

Posted on June 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters nationwide believe the U.S. healthcare system is badly broken. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 20% disagree and 13% are not sure.

The belief that the healthcare system is badly broken is shared by 68% of Democrats, 67% of Republicans, and 66% of Independent voters.

Urban voters and those with a post-graduate degree are somewhat less likely than others to see the system as badly broken.

Those who are in no rush to get the COVID vaccine or will never get it are more likely than others to say the system is badly broken.

Other survey data shows that just 22% believe that having affordable health insurance means having access to quality health care. And, a plurality believes that government regulations increase the profits of health insurance companies.

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Methodology

65% Believe Cities and Towns Should Set Zoning Laws

Posted on June 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters believe that zoning laws should be set by individual towns and cities. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 13% believe they should be set by the federal government, 7% believe there should be no zoning laws, and 15% are not sure.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of Democrats want the rules established by the federal government. Only 8% of Republicans and 7% of Independents agree.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of urban voters prefer federal rules. That view is shared by 11% of suburban voters and 9% of rural voters.

Younger voters are somewhat more supportive of federal rule making than their elders.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 10-12, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 232 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

9% Believe Journalists Were Right to Dismiss Lab Leak Theory

Posted on June 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 9% of voters believe journalists were right to dismiss the possibility that the coronavirus began in a Wuhan, China laboratory. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 22% see no ill intent in the media coverage. That includes 12% who consider the dismissal a serious but innocent mistake and 10% who think the journalists were misled by government officials.

However, 40% believe the journalists’ behavior was not so innocent. Twenty-seven percent (27%) believe journalists rejected the lab leak theory because Donald Trump suggested it. Another 7% blamed partisan political considerations while 6% cited a media desire to protect the Chinese government.

Twenty-three percent (23%) are not sure how to explain it and 6% offered some other reason.

Most Republicans (55%) believe the journalists refused to cover it because Trump suggested the idea or for other partisan political reasons. On the other hand, 45% of Democrats see no ill intent.

The survey also found that 71% are following news about the lab leak topic. That includes 31% who are following it Very Closely.

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Methodology

65% Want United States to Be a Melting Pot

Posted on June 15, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters favor the idea of the United States trying to be a Melting Pot. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 22% are opposed and 12% are not sure.

In the survey, the concept of America as a melting pot was described as a place where immigrants and new ethnic groups assimilate into our nation’s mainstream culture. As part of the process, American culture is influenced by the cultural traditions of the new immigrants

An earlier survey found that 58% believe it is fair to describe the U.S. as a Melting Pot today.

The goal of having America be a Melting Pot is favored by 70% of Hispanic voters, 66% of White voters, and 60% of Black voters.

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Methodology

48% Have Favorable Opinion of Fauci

Posted on June 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Dr. Anthony Fauci. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% have an unfavorable view of him while 15% are not sure.

Perceptions of Fauci have declined a bit since March. At that time, 52% had a favorable opinion of him.

The totals include 28% with a Very Favorable opinion of Fauci and 25% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

The numbers reflect a wide partisan divide that has been found on many topics related to the pandemic. Fauci is viewed favorably by 77% of Democrats but unfavorably by 63% of Republicans. Those dynamics have changed little since March.

There has, however, been a shift in perceptions among Independent voters. In March, a modest plurality had a favorable opinion of Fauci. Now, 29% offer a favorable assessment while 42% have a negative view.

Recent surveys have shown that 66% of voters believe it it likely the coronavirus originated in a Wuhan, China laboratory. Looking back, 49% believe many states and cities overreacted to the pandemic. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree.

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Methodology

70% Believe Civil Rights Movement of 60s Moved U.S. Closer to Founding Ideals

Posted on June 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s helped the United States move closer to living out its founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that view is shared by 73% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats.

On the ideological front, 82% of the most liberal voters agree along with 72% of the most conservative voters.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Hispanic voters agree with that perspective of the Civil Rights Movement. So do 71% of White voters and 58% of Black voters.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 3-5, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 237 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

80% Say Allowing Offensive, Inaccurate Free Speech Better Than Giving Government Power to Decide

Posted on June 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice between allowing free speech even though it is sometimes offensive and inaccurate or having the government determine what speech should be allowed, 80% of voters prefer free speech. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 9% think it would be better to let the government decide.

The free speech option is supported by at least 70% of every measured demographic group.

An earlier survey found that 49% were more worried about restricting free speech than the spread of fake news and misinformation. Thirty-eight percent (38%) took the opposite view.

Hesitation about granting government the power to determine what speech is allowed is deeply ingrained in American culture. One reason for this may be that 59% continue to see the federal government as a special interest group. Additionally, just 34% believe the federal government today supports the founding ideals of Freedom, Equality, and Self-governance.

Over the past year, many media outlets dismissed suggestions that the coronavirus began in a Wuhan, China laboratory. Some social media outlets even blocked discussion of it. Despite those efforts 66% of voters think it’s likely the virus came from a lab leak. That possibility is now being explored by the federal government.

The desire to keep government officials out of key decision making positions was highlighted by the fact that 62% Believe wanted restaurant owners to decide whether a vaccine passport is needed at their business. Just 26% wanted the government to decide.

Other recent finding show that just 25% are okay with Christians imposing their views on society. Just 19% think atheists should be allowed to impose their own views. And 65% believe America is still the Land of Opportunity.

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Methodology

25% Okay With Christians Imposing Views on Society; 19% Say Same About Atheists

Posted on June 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-five percent (25%) of voters believe it is appropriate for Christians to impose their values and beliefs on atheists and society at large. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 60% disagree and 15% are not sure.

At the same time, 19% believe it is appropriate for atheists to impose their values and beliefs on Christians and society at large. On that question, 70% disagree and 11% are not sure.

Voters who hold stronger ideological views are somewhat more supportive of having such groups impose their views on society. That includes both Very Liberal and Very Conservative voters.

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Methodology

49% Believe States, Cities Overreacted to Pandemic, 38% Disagree

Posted on June 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking back, 49% of voters believe many states and cities overreact to the Coronavirus pandemic in ways that did more harm than good. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% disagree and 13% are not sure.

That’s virtually identical to the attitudes measured in February.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans believe many states and cities overreacted. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats disagree. Among Independents 44% believe many overreacted while 38% do not.

The survey also found that 43% of voters now worry that the Biden Administration will wait too long in re-opening society. That’s up three points since April and up six points since February. Nearly as many–37%–believe the Administration will move too quickly.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans worry that the Biden team will wait too long. By a 46% to 28% margin, Independent voters tend to agree.

Democrats, however, have an entirely different perspective. By a 51% to 22% margin, those in President Biden’s party fear the Administration will move too quickly to re-open society.

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Methodology

Biden Approval At 55%

Posted on June 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% disapprove and 6% are not sure.

The current totals currently include 32% who Strongly Approve and 32% who Strongly Disapprove.

Overall approval of the president is little changed from the first two months of the Biden Administration. However, the number who Strongly Disapprove has inched up a bit.

Among people who are on-line almost constantly, 69% approve of the president’s performance. Just 25% disapprove. Among the rest of the nation’s voters, opinions of the president are evenly divided: 48% approve and 45% disapprove.

That gap is consistent with data released earlier showing that 42% of those who are online almost constantly are Democrats. Just 27% align with the GOP. Among the rest of the nation’s voters, a modest plurality (36%) are Republicans. This helps explain why many social media platforms appear supportive of political views that are far more progressive than the nation at large.

While the president’s overall ratings are positive, just 36% give Biden good or excellent marks for handling the border situation.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters nationwide believe it is fair to describe the United States as a Melting Pot. Twenty-one percent (21%) disagree. Sixty-five percent (65%) believe it’s a good thing for immigrants and new ethnic groups to assimilate into American culture. Just 16% disagree.

Other recent data showed that 65% of voters believe the U.S. is friendlier towards immigrants than most other nations.

Seventy percent (70%) of voters view immigration and border control as a national security issue. Sixty percent (60%) see the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government.

On a different topic, 71% Favor Ending Supplemental, Pandemic Related, Unemployment Benefits.

Moving forward, we expect to update the president’s job approval rating every month or so.

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Methodology

71% Favor Ending Supplemental, Pandemic Related, Unemployment Benefits

Posted on June 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters favor ending the pandemic related supplemental unemployment payments and returning unemployment benefits to normal levels. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% are opposed and 10% are not sure.

Those totals include 51% who Strongly Favor ending those supplemental benefits and 9% who are Strongly Opposed.

The debate over these benefits has taken on increased urgency in the wake of two consecutive disappointing jobs reports.

Twenty-five states have already ended the supplemental benefits or scheduled a date for doing so. As with just about everything related to the pandemic, there is a huge partisan divide. All 25 states that have dropped the extra benefits have Republican governors.

Among the public, however, support for ending the benefits is found across partisan, ideological, and demographic lines. A majority of voters in every measured demographic group favor ending those benefits. Support comes from 86% of Republicans, 67% of Independent voters, and 59% of Democrats.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters believe that ending the supplemental benefits will encourage people currently receiving unemployment benefits to take a job.

Many policy debates in Washington seem distant to voters and almost theoretical in nature. However, this topic is much more tangible to many. Forty-six percent (46%) of voters know someone who is making more money by collecting unemployment than they could earn by working. Among those who know someone in that situation, 82% favor ending the supplemental benefits.

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Methodology

48% Say Police Officers More Likely to Be Harassed Than to Abuse Their Authority

Posted on June 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters believe police officers are harassed and endangered by the actions of people they encounter more than they abuse their authority. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% believe it is more common for police officers to abuse their authority to harass and endanger innocent people.

There is a massive partisan divide on this question. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe police are more likely to be harassed and endangered. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Democrats believe police are more likely to abuse their authority.

Independent voters are more evenly divided. Forty-two percent (42%) believe police are more likely to be endangered while 32% take the opposite view.

There is also a significant racial divide: 55% of White voters believe police are more likely to be harassed and endangered. However, 55% of Hispanic voters and 54% of White voters think police officers are more likely to harass and endanger innocent people.

The survey also found that 77% of voters have a favorable opinion of their local police department. Just 17% have an unfavorable view. A majority of every measured demographic group holds a favorable opinion of their local police.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 27-29, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 170 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

58% See America As Melting Pot; 21% Disagree

Posted on June 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters nationwide believe it is fair to describe the United States as a Melting Pot. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% don’t think that’s an appropriate description of the United States today. Twenty percent (20%) are not sure.

The concept of America as a Melting Pot was described as a place where immigrants and new ethnic groups assimilate into our nation’s mainstream culture. As part of the process, American culture is influenced by the cultural traditions of the new immigrants.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Hispanic voters believe it is fair to describe America today as a Melting Pot. So do 59% of White voters and 50% of Black voters.

The survey also found that 65% of voters believe it’s a good thing for immigrants and new ethnic groups to assimilate into American culture. Just 16% disagree.

Fifty-six percent (56%) believe it’s good for American culture to be influenced by the cultural traditions of new immigrants. Twenty-five percent (25%) disagree.

Other recent polling data found that 65% of voters believe the U.S. is friendlier towards immigrants than most other nations.

Seventy percent (70%) of voters view immigration and border control as a national security issue. Sixty percent (60%) of voters see the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government.

Over the first few months of President Biden’s time in office, immigration has proven to be one of his most challenging issues. Just 36% of voters give him Good or Excellent marks for handling situation at the Southern border of the United States.

Sixty-one percent (61%) believe that illegal immigration is bad for the United States while also believing that legal immigration is good. Just 11% of all voters that legal immigration is bad for the U.S.

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Methodology

36% Give Biden Good/Excellent Marks for Handling Border Situation

Posted on June 4, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters give President Biden Good or Excellent marks for his handling of the situation at the Southern border of the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 39% hold the opposite view and rate his performance as poor.

In between are 17% who rate the president’s performance as just fair.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats say the president is doing a good or an excellent job on the border. However that view is shared by just 22% of Independent voters and 12% of Republicans.

The survey also found that 61% believe illegal immigration is bad for the United States while also believing that legal immigration is good. That view is held by 77% of Republicans and 60% of Independents. Among Democrats, 46% share the mainstream view. However, 31% of those in the president’s party that both legal and illegal immigration are good for the nation.

Just 11% of all voters that legal immigration is bad for the U.S.

Other recent polling data found that 65% of voters believe the U.S. is friendlier towards immigrants than most other nations.

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Methodology

65% Believe U.S. Friendlier to Immigrants Than Most Nations

Posted on June 4, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters believe that the United States is friendlier to immigrants than most other countries. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% disagree and believe the U.S. is more hostile towards immigrants.

Those totals include 38% who view the nation as much friendlier towards immigrants than most nations. Just 6% believe it is much more hostile.

Very Liberal voters are fairly evenly divided. Among this group, just 49% believe the U.S. is friendlier than most nations while 41% believe it is more hostile. At the other extreme, 88% of Very Conservative voters believe the U.S. is friendlier than most nations. That includes 75% who say it is much friendlier.

On a partisan basis, 79% of Republicans believe the U.S. is friendlier towards immigrants than other nations. Most Democrats (54%) share that view but 31% see the U.S. as more hostile than most countries. Among Independent voters, 54% see the U.S. as friendlier while 18% say more hostile.

The survey also found that 62% of voters recognize that the United States accepts more immigrants than any other nation in the world. Twelve percent (12%) mistakenly believe that is not true while 26% are not sure.

Those who mistakenly believe that the U.S. does not accept more immigrants than any other nation are far more likely to believe that the United States is more hostile towards immigrants than other nations.

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Methodology

74% Want Focus on Recognizing All As Americans, Less on Ethnic Backgrounds

Posted on June 4, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters believe we should focus more attention on recognizing all who live in the United States as Americans. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 12% disagree and believe we should focus more on ethnic and racial backgrounds. Another 12% are not sure.

A majority of all measured demographic groups agreed that the focus should be on recognizing all as Americans. Older voters were more strongly committed to that view than younger voters. White and Hispanic voters were more likely to hold that view than Black voters.

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66% Think It’s Likely Coronavirus Created in Wuhan Lab

Posted on June 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-six percent (66%) of voters believe it’s likely that the coronavirus was initially created in a Wuhan, China laboratory. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% consider it unlikely and 17% are not sure.

Those figures include 44% who say it’s Very Likely the deadly virus was created in a lab. Just 6% think it’s Not at All Likely.

By an 89% to 5% margin, Conservatives think it’s likely the coronavirus was created in a Wuhan, China lab. Liberals are more divided. Forty-six percent (46%) say creation in a lab is likely while 33% say it is not.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans believe the lab origin is likely. So do 57% of Independents and 51% of Democrats.

While voters remain very skeptical about the origins of the coronavirus, optimism is growing that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters now hold that view. Just 20% believe the worst is yet to come.

On a related topic, a recent Number of the Day showed that fewer than half of all voters are aware of the new CDC guidelines on mask-wearing. There is a partisan divide on this as well. Most Republican voters (56%) are aware of the new CDC guidelines, while most Democrats (57%) are not. Independent voters are evenly divided.

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Methodology

Plurality Has Never Heard of the Term “Woke”

Posted on June 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters have either never heard of the term “woke” (32%) or don’t know enough about it to have an opinion (13%). A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% of voters consider themselves to be woke and 25% say they’re not.

People who are online constantly are far more likely to consider themselves “woke” than other voters.

Urban voters are more likely than suburban or rural voters to see themselves as “woke.”

Additionally, an open ended question about what being “woke” means suggests that few see it in the way the term is understood in political circles. The responses of those who consider themselves “woke” are highlighted in the word cloud below.

This is one of many terms that have a somewhat clearly understood meaning in the political world that is not recognized by the general public.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,500 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 20-22, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 216 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

56% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us; 20% Disagree

Posted on June 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters now believe that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s up four points from a week ago and the highest level of optimism yet recorded. A Ballotpedia national survey found that 20% of voters currently disagree and believe the worst is yet to come. Twenty-five percent (25%) are not sure.

Taking a longer look at the timeline highlights just how dramatically the numbers have shifted since the vaccines became available. The number who believe the worst is behind us is up six points from a month ago, fourteen points from two months ago, and twenty-three points from three months ago.

Throughout the pandemic, there has been a vast partisan perception gap. That remains the case today. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans now believe the worst is behind us. That view is shared by 52% of Democrats and 44% of independent voters. This marks the first time that a majority of Democrats have believed the worst is behind us.

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Methodology

60% See Growing Number of Illegal Immigrants to Be An Invasion of United States

Posted on June 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of voters see the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% disagree and say it is not an invasion.

Private sector workers, by a 64% to 28% margin, see it as an invasion. Government employees are more evenly divided–47% say it’s an invasion, 42% disagree.

By an 82% to 11% margin, Republicans say it’s an invasion. Independent voters, by a 55% to 27% margin, agree.

However, a narrow plurality of Democrats (48%) take the opposite view.

Among voters who are aware that the United States takes in more immigrants than any other nation in the world, 76% see the growing number of illegal immigrants as an invasion. Among those who mistakenly believe some other nations take in more immigrants than the U.S., 68% say it’s not an invasion.

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Methodology

55% Comfortable Going Without Mask to Indoor Restaurant or Bar

Posted on May 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide are comfortable going to an indoor restaurant or bar without wearing a mask. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% are not comfortable going maskless in such social settings with a large number of people.

The survey also found that 75% think it’s likely that many unvaccinated people will be present at large gatherings and social settings. However, if invited to a social event with a large number of people, most voters (52%) are not likely to ask whether everyone attending has been vaccinated. Forty-three percent (43%) say they’d be at least somewhat likely to ask.

Those totals include 19% who would be Very Likely to ask and 30% who would be not at all likely to ask.

Among those who have been vaccinated already, 51% say they’d be somewhat likely to ask if everyone attending has been vaccinated. Among those in no rush to get the vaccine, just 25% are likely to ask. That falls to 15% among those who will never get vaccinated.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republicans are comfortable going to a bar or restaurant without wearing a mask. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Democrats are not. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Data released earlier showed that just fewer than half of all voters are aware of the new CDC guidelines on mask wearing. Most Republican voters (56%) are aware of the new CDC guidelines. Most Democrats (57%) are not. Given this partisan divide, it is interesting to note that earlier surveys found that Democrats were overwhelmingly likely to view the CDC guidelines as reliable and fact based. Republicans, by a 2-to-1 margin saw the agency as partisan and political.

This is consistent with other data suggesting that CDC guidelines have little impact on individual behavior. Only 33% of voters claim to have followed news about CDC guidelines very closely. Additionally, as of a month ago, 66% of voters had already ignored CDC guidelines by taking part in activities discouraged by the agency.

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Methodology

71% Favor Taxing Endowment Income of Elite Universities Like Harvard

Posted on May 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters believe elite universities such as Harvard and other nonprofit foundations should pay taxes on their endowment income. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 12% disagree and 16% are not sure.

The idea of taxing the endowment funds is favored by 76% of Hispanic voters, 71% of Black voters, and 71% of White voters.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Republicans favor the idea along with 71% of Democrats, and 61% of other voters.

Similar support is found for a proposal to tax the endowment funds of elite universities and use the money to fund apprenticeship programs. Seventy percent (70%) favor the proposal and 13% are opposed. Those figures include 36% who Strongly Favor the plan and 5% who are Strongly Opposed.

The proposal for taxing endowment funds of elite universities to fund apprenticeship programs was mad by Senator Tom Cotton.

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52% Believe Worst of Pandemic is Behind Us; 21% Disagree

Posted on May 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters now believe that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s up two points from a month ago and up ten points since early in March. The new numbers reflect the highest level of confidence yet measured.

A Ballotpedia national survey found that 21% of voters currently disagree and believe the worst is yet to come. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are not sure.

Public confidence about the pandemic has resembled a roller-coaster ride.

Following the election last fall, confidence fell sharply. In late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. However, following the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, confidence surged.
By late January, 33% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us, while 40% believed the worst was still to come.
Then, in mid-February, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believed that the worst was behind us. At that point, 39% took the optimistic view, while 31% gave a more pessimistic answer.
After that surge, the trend of growing confidence appeared to stall. From mid-February to mid-April, there was little change in public confidence.
However, since mid-April, optimism has soared once again.

Throughout the pandemic, there has been a vast partisan perception gap. That remains the case today. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Republicans believe the worst is behind us. That view is shared by 46% of Democrats and 43% of Independent voters.

Data released earlier showed that fewer than half of all voters are aware of the new CDC guidelines on mask wearing. There is a partisan divide on this as well. Most Republican voters (56%) are aware of the new CDC guidelines, while most Democrats (57%) are not. Independent voters are evenly divided.

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Methodology

45% Aware of New CDC Mask Guidelines; 44% Believe Old Rules Still in Place

Posted on May 26, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are aware of the new CDC guidelines on mask wearing. The agency recently said that those who are vaccinated no longer need to wear masks indoors. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 44% mistakenly believe that the older CDC guidelines remain in effect, guidelines that call for everyone to wear masks in a large social setting such as a restaurant or a bar. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure.

Most Republican voters (56%) are aware of the new CDC guidelines. Most Democrats (57%) are not. Independent voters are evenly divided. Given this partisan divide, it is interesting to note that earlier results found that Democrats were overwhelmingly likely to view the CDC guidelines as reliable and fact based. Republicans, by a 2-to-1 margin saw the agency as partisan and political.

This is consistent with other data showing that people’s underlying levels of caution and concern shape how they view the CDC. Overall, these findings suggest that CDC guidelines have little impact on individual behavior. Only 33% of voters claim to have followed news about CDC guidelines very closely. Additionally, as of a month ago, 66% of voters had already ignored CDC guidelines by taking part in activities discouraged by the agency.

The latest survey found that most who would not be comfortable going to a restaurant or bar incorrectly believe that the CDC still recommends wearing masks in such settings. Most who are comfortable going out to such locations are aware of the CDC guidelines.

Those who have already been vaccinated are evenly divided between those with a correct understanding of the current CDC policy and those who are clinging to the older guidelines.

Additional data from the survey will be released later today and tomorrow.

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Methodology

28% Believe Just About Every Major Problem in America Results from Racial Discrimination

Posted on May 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters nationwide believe that just about every major problem in America results from racial discrimination. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 56% disagree and 16% are not sure.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Hispanic voters see racism as the core issue in just about every major problem. Sixty-five percent (65%) of White voters disagree. Black voters are evenly divided–42% see racial discrimination underlying the nation’s problems while 38% do not.

There is a massive generation gap on the topic.

Among the youngest voters (under 25), nearly half (47%) sees racism at the root of major problems. Just 34% disagree.
The numbers among those 25-44 are a mirror image of the younger voters perception: 35% say racial discrimination creates most major problems while 46% do not.
Two-thirds (66%) of voters 45 and older reject the idea that just about every problem in America results from racial discrimination. Only 20% think it’s the cause.

While a relatively small number see racial discrimination as the root cause of America’s problems, data released earlier showed that 93% recognize that racism has played a major role in America’s history. However, just 20% believe we should recognize that America was founded on racism and start over with something new.

A separate survey found that 8% of voters nationwide say most of their friends are racist. At the other end of the spectrum, a plurality (46%) says none of their friends are racist. That total includes 59% of Republicans, 44% of Independents, and 35% of Democrats.

Richard Alba, a Distinguished Professor of Sociology at the Graduate Center, City University of New York, has pointed out not neatly divided into easy to define racial categories. One key factor is “a robust development that is largely unheralded: a surge in the number of young Americans who come from mixed majority-minority families.” They “have one white parent and one nonwhite or Hispanic parent.”

Alba lays out his case in an important new book: “The Great Demographic Illusion: Majority, Minority, and the Expanding American Mainstream.”

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from May 13-15, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

93% Recognize Racism As Big Part of American History; 20% Want to Scrap the Founding Ideals And Start Over

Posted on May 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Ninety-three percent (93%) of voters nationwide recognize that racism has played a major role in America’s history. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 49% who say America is a racist nation; 22% who believe there is still too much racial discrimination, but we’re making a lot of progress; and 22% who believe racial discrimination used to be a big issue, but it’s pretty much faded away.

The survey also found, however, that just 20% believe we should recognize that America was founded on racism and start over with something new.

Three times as many (63%) see racism as an issue, but aren’t ready to remake our political system. That includes 44% who believe it’s a declining part of our history and 19% who believe America is racist but the best path forward is helping the nation live up to its founding ideals.

Ten percent (10%) believe America is a racist nation but aren’t sure what to do about it. Eight percent (8%) believe America never had a significant amount of racial discrimination

Among those who do not describe the nation as racist, the overwhelming majority (84%) recognize that racial discrimination has played a significant role in American history. That includes 42% who believe there is still too much racial discrimination, but we’re making a lot of progress and 42% who believe racial discrimination used to be a big issue, but it’s pretty much faded away.

An earlier survey found that 8% of voters nationwide say most of their friends are racist. At the other end of the spectrum, a plurality (46%) of voters say none of their friends are racist. That total includes 59% of Republicans, 44% of Independents, and 35% of Democrats.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Hispanic voters and 34% and Black voters (34%) say we should recognize that America was founded on racism and start over with something new. In both cases, however, a larger number reject the idea of remaking our political system. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Hispanic voters reject the idea of remaking our political system. So do 42% of Black voters.

Among Very Liberal voters, who are evenly divided: 44% want to start over with something new while 46% reject that idea.

While racial and ethnic demographics are important to consider, it’s also important to recognize that our society is not neatly divided into easy to define racial categories. Richard Alba, a Distinguished Professor of Sociology at the Graduate Center, City University of New York, has pointed out “a robust development that is largely unheralded: a surge in the number of young Americans who come from mixed majority-minority families.” They “have one white parent and one nonwhite or Hispanic parent.”

Alba lays out his case in an important new book: “The Great Demographic Illusion: Majority, Minority, and the Expanding American Mainstream.”

A recent Scott Rasmussen survey found that 17% of voters claim at least two racial and ethnic backgrounds in their family history. It’s also significant to note that Hispanic voters whose parents were born in the United States have views that are much different than Hispanic voters who were born elsewhere.

The complexity of America’s racial and ethnic heritage suggests that the story of America is a nation with an expanding and ever more inclusive mainstream. That mainstream is guided by a shared desire to have the United States draw closer to living out its founding ideals of freedom, equality and self-governance.

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Methodology

27% Say Personal Finances Getting Better; Little Change Following Weak Jobs Report

Posted on May 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of voters nationwide say their own personal finances are getting better. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% take the opposite view, saying their finances are getting worse. Those figures are virtually identical to the results from last month and the month before.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters rate their own finances as good or excellent while 18% say poor. Those figures are also little changed from recent months.

This stability suggests that last months weak jobs report released earlier this month has had little immediate impact on perceptions of personal finances.

However, the report may have damaged perceptions of the overall economy. Just 27% now believe the economy is getting better while 37% say it’s getting worse. Last month, those numbers were essentially even (34% better/ 35% worse).

Thirty-percent (30%) now rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent while another 27% say poor. Last month, 32% rated the economy as good or excellent while 24% said poor.

Urban voters are more optimistic about economic trends than suburban and rural voters. Democrats are far more optimistic than Republicans and Independents.

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Methodology

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 41% Republican 40%

Posted on May 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 6% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

That’s a bit closer than last month when Democrats enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

The tightening results from growing loyalty among GOP voters. Last month, just 85% of GOP voters said they would vote for the Republican from their district. That’s up to 91% now, a figure that matches Democratic support for their party’s candidate.

Just 3% of GOP voters now say they’d vote for the Democrat from their district. That’s down from 6% a month ago.

Independent voters remain evenly divided in both surveys.

As with last month, Democrats lead by a wide margin, 51% to 32%, among voters who are online “almost constantly.” Republicans lead among the rest of the nation’s voters by a 43% to 36% margin. That’s consistent with the fact that 42% of those online constantly are Democrats. Just 27% align with the GOP.

It is impossible to know at this point whether these new numbers reflect a real tightening of the race or are merely statistical noise.

Other recent survey results show that 70% of voters view immigration and border control as a national security issue. Overall, 63% of voters believe that legal immigration is good for the United States while illegal immigration is bad. Just 14% believe both legal and illegal immigration are bad for the nation while 11% believe both are good.

Additionally, 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government. On top of that, 52% believe the Biden Administration is making it too easy for illegal immigrants to enter the nation. Just 28% disagree.

On a different topic, 46% of voters nationwide believe that America is a racist nation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Finally, by a 49% to 29% margin, voters prefer a more focused $600 Billion infrastructure plan rather than the president’s $1.9 trillion approach.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from May 6-8, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

58% Believe Drug Cartels Control Southern Border; 20% Disagree

Posted on May 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 20% disagree and 22% are not sure.

Most Republicans (78%) and Independents (53%) believe the cartels control the border. Democrats are more divided on the question. Forty-three percent (43%) agree that the cartels have more control than the U.S. government while 32% disagree.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of White voters believe the cartels have more control as do 53% of Hispanic voters and 41% of Black voters.

The survey also found that the 52% believe the Biden Administration is making it too easy for illegal immigrants to enter the nation. Just 28% disagree.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Republicans think the Administration is making it too easy for illegal immigrants. Independents, by a 45% to 27% margin, tend to agree.

Democrats have a completely different view. Among those in the president’s party, just 26% believe he is making it too easy for illegal immigrants. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree.

Data released earlier shows that 70% of voters view immigration and border control as a national security issue. Overall, 63% of voters believe that legal immigration is good for the United States while illegal immigration is bad. Just 14% believe both legal and illegal immigration are bad for the nation while 11% believe both are good.

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Methodology

70% See Immigration and Border Control As A National Security Issue

Posted on May 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy percent (70%) of voters nationwide say that immigration and border control is a national security issue. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 16% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Republicans view border control as a national security issue. So do 59% of Democrats and 58% of Independent voters.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of White voters see it as a national security issue along with 68% of Hispanic voters and 41% of Black voters.

Older voters are more likely than younger voters to consider immigration a national security issue.

The survey also found that 63% of voters believe that legal immigration is good for the United States while illegal immigration is bad. Just 14% believe both legal and illegal immigration are bad for the nation while 11% believe both are good.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe legal immigration is good while illegal immigration is bad. That view is shared by 57% of Independent voters and 56% of Democrats.

Other data shows that 58% of voters believe drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government. Just 20% disagree and 22% are not sure. Most voters (52%) believe that the Biden Administration is making it too easy for illegal immigrants to enter the nation.

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Methodology

46% Believe America Is A Racist Nation

Posted on May 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide believe that America is a racist nation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Democrats believe our nation is racist while 62% of Republicans say it is not.
Independent voters are evenly divided.
Most voters under 45 believe America is a racist nation while most over 55 say it is not.

The survey also found that 8% of voters nationwide say most of their friends are racist. Five percent (5%) of White voters say most of their friends are racist. Six percent (6%) of Black voters say the same. Among Hispanic voters, 22% say most of their friends are racist.

At the other end of the spectrum, a plurality (46%) of voters say none of their friends are racist. That total includes 59% of Republicans, 44% of Independents, and 35% of Democrats.

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Methodology

49% Prefer Smaller Bill Focused on Infrastructure; 29% Prefer Biden Plan

Posted on May 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

By a 49% to 29% margin, voters prefer a more focused $600 Billion infrastructure plan rather than the president’s $1.9 trillion approach.

A Dallas Express survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that Republicans support the more narrowly focused plan by a 67% to 12% margin. Among Independent voters, 44% support the $600 billion plan while 29% prefer the larger proposal.

Democrats are more divided. Just under half (47%) prefer the $1.9 trillion plan proposed by the president. However, 38% of those in the president’s party prefer the smaller and more narrowly focused plan.

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Methodology

The national online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from April 28-May 1, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from lists of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet use, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

33% Following CDC Guidance Very Closely

Posted on May 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters nationwide say that they are “Very Closely” following news about the CDC guidelines for behavior during the pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 48% of Democrats, 29% of Republicans, and 20% of Independent voters.

Among voters who have already been vaccinated or will be as soon as possible, 61% are following the CDC guidelines Very Closely. Among all other voters, just 20% are paying that much attention to the CDC. That includes people who want to wait and see before getting vaccinated, those who are in no rush, and those who will never get vaccinated.

It’s also interesting to note that there is little correlation between paying attention to the CDC and overall perceptions of the pandemic. Among voters who believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, 33% are following CDC guidelines Very Closely. Among those who believe the worst is yet to come, that figure is 36%. This suggests that people are basing their perceptions of the pandemic primarily on sources other than the CDC.

Overall, at this time, 50% of all voters believe the worst is behind us.

The fact that 33% are following the CDC guidelines Very Closely is generally consistent with the fact that 66% have recently engaged in behavior that the CDC officially discourages.

The survey also found that 46% of voters believe the CDC has generally provided reliable and fact-based guidelines during the pandemic. Thirty-eight percent (38%) believe it has generally acted in a partisan political manner and 16% are not sure.

On this point, there is a wide partisan divide. By a 73% to 16% margin, Democrats believe the CDC guidance has been reliable and fact based. Republicans, by a 60% to 27% margin, believe the CDC has generally been partisan and political. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Since the COVID vaccines became available in January, there has been a roughly 80% decline in the number of reported cases and deaths from the virus. However, just 36% of voters nationwide are aware of the progress. This may reflect the fact that 87% of national media coverage about the pandemic has been negative. National media coverage in the United States has been far more negative than coverage in scientific journals and other nations.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 29-May 1, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 241 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

36% Aware of Dramatic Reduction in COVID Cases

Posted on May 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

This may reflect the fact that 87% of national media coverage about the pandemic has been negative. National media coverage in the United States has been far more negative than coverage in scientific journals and other nations.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Democrats are aware of the progress along with 36% of Republicans. Only 29% of Independent voters recognize how much of an improvement there has been.

Interestingly, however, Democrats remain far more pessimistic about the pandemic than other voters.

By a 60% to 18% margin, Republicans believe the worst is behind us. A solid plurality (46% to 24%) of Independents agree. Democrats are somewhat less convinced. Forty-three percent (43%) of those in President Biden’s party believe the worst is behind us while 31% believe it is yet to come.

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Methodology

Confidence That Worst of Pandemic is Behind Us Surges to 50%

Posted on May 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty percent (50%) of voters now believe that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s up nine points from two weeks ago and reflects the highest level of confidence yet measured.

A Ballotpedia national survey found that 24% of voters disagree and believe the worst is yet to come. Twenty-six percent (26%) are not sure.

Those figures highlight a significant improvement over the past two weeks . In mid-April, just 41% thought the worst was behind us and 32% held the opposite view.

Public confidence about the pandemic has resembled a roller-coaster ride.

Following the election last fall, confidence fell sharply. In late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. However, following the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, confidence surged.
By late January, 33% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us, while 40% believed the worst was still to come.
Then, in mid-February, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believed that the worst was behind us. At that point, 39% took the optimistic view while 31% gave a more pessimistic answer.
After that surge, the trend of growing confidence appeared to stall. From mid-February to mid-April, there was little change in public confidence.

Throughout the pandemic, there has been a vast partisan perception gap. That remains the case today. By a 60% to 18% margin, Republicans believe the worst is behind us. A solid plurality (46% to 24%) of Independents agree. Democrats are somewhat less convinced. Forty-three percent (43%) of those in President Biden’s party believe the worst is behind us while 31% believe it is yet to come.

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Methodology

76% Favor Photo ID Requirement For Voting

Posted on April 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Registered Voters believe all voters should be required to show a photo ID before voting. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 16% are opposed and 8% are not sure.

H.R. 1, a bill intended to remake the nation’s voting laws, would ban photo ID requirements. That proposed legislation passed the House on a party-line vote and is to be considered by the Senate.

Advocates of H.R. 1, also known as the “For the People Act,” argue that the bill would not technically ban photo ID requirements. In their view, the legislation simply provides a workaround for people who don’t have photo IDs. They would be allowed to vote by providing a sworn, written statement to an election official stating that they are eligible to vote. However, only 19% of voters consider that an acceptable substitute. Seventy-three percent (73%) are opposed.

This is one issue that unites the Trump and establishment wings of the Republican party. Among those who prefer Trump like policies, 90% oppose the idea of letting people submit a written statement rather than photo ID. So do 87% of those who would prefer traditional Republican policies.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Independent voters oppose letting people vote by simply submitting a written statement. So do 56% of Democrats.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 203 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

38% Worry That Biden Administration Will Re-Open Society Too Quickly

Posted on April 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters nationwide worry that the Biden Administration will re-open society too quickly. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 40% hold the opposite view and worry that the Administration will wait too long. Twenty-two percent (22%) are not sure.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republicans worry that the Administration will wait too long. Most Democrats (54%) have the opposite worry. Among Independent voters, 41% worry the Administration will wait too long and 33% are afraid that it will move too quickly.

A plurality of white voters worry that the Biden team will wait too long. So do voters over the age of 45. A plurality of other voters lean in the opposite direction as do younger voters.

Urban voters tend to be more afraid things will re-open too quickly. Suburban and Rural voters are more likely to have the opposite concern.

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Methodology

44% See Firms In Their Area Hiring; 17% See Layoffs

Posted on April 20, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-four percent (44%) of voters nationwide say that firms in their area are more likely to hiring rather than laying people off. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 17% think layoffs are more common where they live. Twenty-two percent (22%) say firms where they live are neither hiring nor laying workers off and 18% are not sure.

There is little difference on this question between urban, suburban, and rural voters.

Voters over 35 are more upbeat in their assessment than younger voters.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats see firms in their area hiring. So do 47% of Republicans. However, only 35% of Independent voters agree.

The survey also found that 28% report that their own finances are getting better while 21% say worse.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 15-17, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 261 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

31% Prefer a Candidate Pursuing Trump-like Policies

Posted on April 20, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice between four presidential candidates with equal skills and temperament, 31% would prefer a candidate who supported policies like those of President Trump. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% would like a candidate who supported policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders; 20% favor a traditional Democrat; and, 15% favor a traditional Republican.

We have been asking this question regularly since last October. Despite the election results and everything that has happened since, these attitudes have remained remarkably stable.

These numbers show 46% favoring one of the Republican leaning options while 44% prefer a Democratic leaning set of policies. In every update of the survey, the partisan split has remained essentially even. That’s not surprising given that we have had nine consecutive presidential elections where neither candidate has received more than 53% of the vote. It’s the longest such stretch in American history.
On the Republican side, the number preferring Trump-like policies is consistently two to three times as large as the number favoring traditional GOP policies. However, younger GOP-leaning voters are more evenly divided.
On the other hand, the two wings of the Democratic party are always just about evenly divided.
Urban voters strongly support one of the Democratic options. Those in the suburbs lean towards one of the GOP options while rural voters prefer the GOP.
Those favoring populist policies (Trump or Sanders) consistently outnumber those favoring more traditional policies. This week, the numbers show 55% favoring populist policies while 35% prefer a more traditional approach.

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Methodology

13% Will Never Get Vaccinated; Unchanged Since CDC Paused J & J Vaccine

Posted on April 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 13% of voters nationwide say they will never get the COVID-19 vaccine. Despite recent news about the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, that number is essentially unchanged from earlier surveys.

This may suggest that the actions of government officials are now having little impact on pandemic issues. Data released earlier showed that 66% of voters have recently engaged in activities officially discouraged by the CDC.

At this point, 46% have now been vaccinated, and 14% want to receive the vaccine as soon as possible. That totals 60%, up ten points since February. Those figures suggest slightly growing comfort with the vaccines.

In between are 15% who say they want to wait and see before getting vaccinated and another 10% who are in no particular rush.

Eighteen percent (18%) of Republicans say they will never get vaccinated. So do 16% of independent voters. Just 5% of Democrats share that view.

At the other extreme, 74% of Democrats say they have either been vaccinated already or want to be as soon as possible. Just 54% of Republicans hold that view, along with 51% of independents.

There is also a significant difference in attitudes by age. Eighty percent (80%) of senior citizens have either been vaccinated or want to be as soon as possible. However, that applies to only 48% of voters 18-24.

Currently, 41% believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 32% disagree.

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Methodology

42% of Those Online Constantly Are Democrats, Just 27% Are Republicans

Posted on April 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Among voters who are online almost constantly, 42% are Democrats. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 27% and 31% are unaffiliated with either major party.

This helps explain why so many social media platforms appear to be supportive of political views that are far more progressive than the nation at large. Among the rest of the nation’s voters, Republicans actually have a modest advantage. Thirty-six percent (36%) of those who aren’t constantly online align with the GOP. Just 32% align with the Democrats.

Not surprisingly, this result is reflected in Generic Congressional Ballot polling as well. Democrats enjoy a 17-point lead among those online constantly. The GOP has a slight advantage among all other voters.

The Pew Center recently reported that 31% of American adults are online almost constantly. The numbers are slightly higher among Registered Voters.

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Methodology

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 43% Republicans 39%

Posted on April 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 43% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 39% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 5% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

Democrats lead by a wide margin, 50% to 33%, among voters who are online “almost constantly.” Republicans have a narrow edge, 42% to 39% among the rest of the nation’s voters. That’s consistent with the fact that 42% of those online constantly are Democrats. Just 27% align with the GOP.

Among all Democrats, 91% say they would vote for their party’s candidate. Just 85% of Republicans say the same. Independent voters are evenly divided, with 35% undecided. Twelve percent (12%) of Independent voters say they would prefer a third candidate option.

The relative weakness in Republican partisan loyalty can be traced to the small wing of the party that prefers Traditional Republican policy positions. Among these old-school Republicans, just 55% plan to vote for the GOP candidate. Seventeen percent (17%) of these voters say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate, 9% are not sure, and 19% are undecided.

Among those who prefer a candidate promoting Trump like policies, 90% plan to vote for the Republican candidate. They remain the dominant wing of the party.

This reflects a long-running divide in the GOP. In the 2012 Republican presidential primaries, Tea Party Republicans were committed to voting for whoever won the party’s nomination. Traditional Republicans at that time were far more likely to abandon the party if their preferred candidate didn’t win the nomination.

Looking ahead to 2022, this dynamic can play out in many ways. If the traditional Republicans fail to support their party’s Congressional candidates, this divide could significantly limit Republican midterm gains. On the other hand, it is quite possible that the policies of the Biden Administration will push many of these traditional Republicans to support GOP candidates. Following President Biden’s first month in office, there was a significant increase in the number of people believing the country will become even more polarized.

Other recent polling shows that 41% Believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 32% believe the worst is yet to come. That’s unchanged over the past six weeks. Prior to that, the arrival of COVID vaccines spurred a significant growth in confidence. However, that growth has stalled.

Additionally, 28% say their finances are getting better while 21% Say Worse. That, too, is little changed. Economic confidence at this time is closely tied to confidence that we are moving beyond the pandemic.

On another topic, 25% say requiring Photo ID’s is a form of voter suppression. Sixty-six percent (66% Disagree).

Support for policies of a certain candidate were determined by the following question: Suppose you had a choice between four presidential candidates. All four had equal skills and temperament. Would you prefer a Republican who supported policies like President Trump, a more traditional Republican, a Democrat who supported policies similar to Senator Bernie Sanders, or a more traditional Democrat?

Over the past six months, responses to this question show that, on the GOP side of the aisle, Trump policies are strongly preferred over a traditional Republican. Democrats, on the other hand, are even divided between those who favor traditional Democrats or candidates pursuing Sanders’ policies.

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Methodology

28% Say Their Finances Are Getting Better; 21% Say Worse

Posted on April 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters nationwide say their own personal finances are getting better. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% take the opposite view, saying their finances are getting worse. Forty-nine percent (49%) say their finances are remaining about the same, while 3% are not sure.

Those numbers are essentially unchanged from a last month suggesting that the recent trend of growing confidence has stalled.

Looking back, confidence fell significantly between the election and January. Then, it improved significantly during the early months of this year. By last month, perceptions of personal finances finally surpassed the pre-election levels of confidence.

The general trends match perceptions of the coronavirus pandemic. The number believing the worst was behind us grew dramatically from last November to early March. The numbers have remained steady since that time.

The survey also found that:

32% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, another 24% say poor (up from 27%/27% last month).
34% believe the economy is getting better, while 35% say worse (up from 29%/38% last month).
49% rate their personal finances as good or excellent, 14% say poor (little changed from 47%/14% last month).

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Methodology

41% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us; 32% Believe Worst is Yet to Come

Posted on April 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters believe that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% disagree and believe the worst is yet to come.

Those figures are little changed from six weeks ago. That suggests the recent trend of growing confidence has stalled.

Prior to the past six weeks, confidence was growing rapidly. As recently as late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. At that time, only 18% believed the worst was behind us.

However, following the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines, confidence surged. By late January, 33% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us, while 40% believed the worst was still to come. Then, in mid-February, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believed that the worst was behind us. At that point, 39% took the optimistic view while 31% gave a more pessimistic answer. By early March, the number believing the worst was behind us inched up to 42%. That’s the highest level of confidence yet measured and a point higher than the latest numbers.

Throughout the pandemic, there has been a vast partisan perception gap. That remains the case today. By a 50% to 27% margin, Republicans believe the worst is behind us. By a narrow plurality (37% to 31%), Independents tend to agree. Democrats are evenly divided. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of those in President Biden’s party believe the worst is behind us while 36% believe it is yet to come.

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Methodology

64% Believe Companies Selling Masks Financially Supporting Campaigns for Mask Mandates

Posted on April 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters think it’s likely that companies selling mask coverings are financially supporting campaigns to continue pandemic related mask mandates. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 23% disagree and 12% are not sure.

Those totals include 34% who believe it’s very likely and 9% who say it’s Not at All Likely.

Similar results were found on the question of vaccine passports. Sixty-two percent (62%) think think companies offering COVID vaccines and tests are financially supporting campaigns to require vaccine passports. Just 20% disagree.

This skepticism suggests that Americans instinctively understand the political dynamics of the regulatory process. The process has been explained by the example of the Bootleggers and the Baptists. Powerful regulations often result from an unholy alliance between true believers and those who profit from the belief. Prohibition came about because Baptists were true believers and Bootleggers profited immensely from the fact that alcohol could not legally be purchased.

In this case, at least 57% of every measured demographic group consider it likely that mask companies are funding campaigns for mask mandates. One interesting dynamic is that the lowest level of skepticism on this point is found among people who would prefer policies like those offered by Bernie Sanders. Sanders’ style of populism is generally considered to have a strong bias against corporate elites. However, on this question, it is those who prefer Trump-like policies who are the most skeptical. On the question of mask mandates, 77% who prefer Trump policies believe campaigns are being funded by mask manufacturers. That’s 20-points higher than the number among Sanders-style populists.

This finding suggests that people on all sides of the political debate may be more skeptical about corporate motives when they disagree with the underlying policy objective. It is highly likely that supporters of Sanders-style populism would be more skeptical than those who prefer Trump-style populism on many issues.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 8-10, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 217 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

25% Say Requiring Photo ID is Voter Suppression; 66% Disagree

Posted on April 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

The Brennan Center and other activist organizations says that requiring voters to show photo ID is a form of voter suppression. However, just 25% of voters nationwide agree. Instead, 66% see photo ID requirements as a reasonable step to improve confidence in elections.

A majority of every measured demographic group hold the view that such requirements are reasonable. That includes 77% of Republicans, 67% of Independents, and 56% of Democrats.

Another election reform considered by some to be a form of voter suppression is requiring all ballots to be received by Election Day. However, only 29% of voters agree with that assessment. Twice as many–59%– see that as a reasonable step to improve confidence in elections.

Two other items defined by the Brennan Center as voter suppression draw more mixed responses.

Banning mail-in voting is seen as suppression by 45% of all voters. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree. On that question, 63% of Democrats see it as suppression, 54% of Republicans see it as a reasonable step, and Independent voters are evenly divided.
Limiting early voting to two weeks is seen as suppression by 35% and a reasonable step by 49%. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats see such a timetable as voter suppression. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans consider a reasonable step. By a 48% to 29% margin, Independents agree that it’s a reasonable step to increase confidence in elections.

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Methodology

62% Believe Restaurant Owners Should Decide Whether Vaccine Passport is Needed, 26% Want Government Officials to Decide

Posted on April 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters believe that restaurant owners should decide whether vaccine passports are required to visit their business. A Ballotpedia national survey found that 26% think that decision should be made by government officials. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure.

The results are similar when asked who should make such decisions about a wedding reception. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe that the decisions about vaccine passports should be made by the people getting married and the reception hall. Just 21% believe government officials should make that decision.

In both cases a majority or plurality of every measured demographic group believe the choice should be made by the individuals involved rather than government officials. More than 3-out-of-4 Republicans hold such views. So do a solid majority of Democrats and Independents.

The survey also found modest support for the idea of vaccine passports. Fifty-four percent (54%) favor the idea, but 41% do not. Support for the concept comes from 73% of Democrats, 45% of Independents, and 39% of Republicans.

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Methodology

In Georgia, 41% Favor MLB Decision to Move All-Star Game, 34% Oppose

Posted on April 7, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-one percent (41%) of Georgia residents favor the decision of Major League Baseball to move the All-Star game out of Atlanta. A Scott Rasmussen statewide survey found that 34% oppose the decision. Sixteen percent (16%) say it doesn’t matter and 9% are not sure.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Democrats favor the decision while 48% of Republicans are opposed.

Just 28% of Georgia residents know that Delta and Coca-Cola have come out in opposition to Georgia’s new election law.

Nationally, 59% believe companies taking positions on political issues adds to the divisiveness in America.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Adults in Georgia was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from April 2-6, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Just 28% of Georgians Know Delta, Coke Oppose State’s New Election Law

Posted on April 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 28% of Georgia residents know that Delta and Coca-Cola have come out in opposition to Georgia’s new election law. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 27% mistakenly believe Coca Cola favors the law. Twenty-three percent (23%) think the same about Delta.

In both cases, roughly half of all Georgia residents are either unsure or believe the two companies have not taken a position on the issue.

Forty-one percent (41%) favor the decision of Major League Baseball to move the All-Star game out of Atlanta while 34% oppose the decision.

Nationally, 59% believe companies taking positions on political issues adds to the divisiveness in America.

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Methodology

59% Believe Companies Taking Political Positions Adds to Divisiveness in America

Posted on April 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of U.S. Adults believe that companies make political statements adds to the divisiveness in America. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% disagree and 24% are not sure.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republicans believe corporate political statements adds to divisiveness. So do 55% of Democrats and 55% of Independents.

On a related topic, 66% of adults believe companies should avoid taking positions on political issues. Another 8% thought it appropriates for companies to weigh in on topics related to their businesses. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe it is better for businesses to clearly express their views on a wide variety of issues.

Other survey data found that 39% believe it is appropriate for a company to leave a state because it disapproves of laws completely unrelated to their business. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree. The numbers show that solid majorities consider it is appropriate for businesses to leave a state for other reasons. Sixty-six percent (66%) think it’s appropriate to move if another state has a lower cost of living; 60% say it’s appropriate to leave because the state’s taxes are too high; and, 59% say it’s appropriate if the company disapproves of laws directly affecting the business.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 U.S. Adults was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from April 2-5, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

39% Believe It’s Appropriate for Companies To Leave State Over Laws Unrelated to the Business

Posted on April 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of U.S. Adults believe it is appropriate for a company to leave a state because it disapproves of laws completely unrelated to their business. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% take the opposite view and believe that such a decision is not appropriate. Twenty percent (20%) are not sure.

A plurality of Democrats (47%) believes it is appropriate for a business to leave the state over unrelated issues. A plurality of Republicans (48%) takes the opposite view. Among Independent voters, 33% consider it appropriate while 42% disagree.

One interesting divide is found along ideological lines. People with strong political convictions are more likely to approve of a company leaving the state over laws unrelated to the business. Fifty four percent (54%) of Very Liberal adults think it’s appropriate as do 49% of Very Conservative voters.

However, just 39% of those with Somewhat Liberal views agree, along with 33% of Moderates and 31% of those with Somewhat Conservative views.

Other data shows that solid majorities consider it is appropriate for businesses to leave a state for other reasons. Sixty-six percent (66%) think it’s appropriate to move if another state has a lower cost of living; 60% say it’s appropriate to leave because the state’s taxes are too high; and, 59% say it’s appropriate if the company disapproves of laws directly affecting the business.

Data released earlier showed that 66% of adults believe companies should avoid taking positions on political issues. Another 8% thought it appropriates for companies to weigh in on topics related to their businesses. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe it is better for businesses to clearly express their views on a wide variety of issues.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 U.S. Adults was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from April 2-5, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

67% Believe Large Corporations Ignore the Views of the Working Class

Posted on April 6, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of U.S. Adults believe that large corporations generally ignore the views of America’s working class. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that just 14% disagree with that assessment and 19% are not sure.

The view that corporations ignore the views of the working class is shared by 70% of Republicans, 69% of Democrats, and 62% of Independent voters.

It is also shared by 70% of White voters, 68% of Hispanic voters and 60% of Black voters.

In fact, it is shared by at least 55% of every measured demographic group.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 U.S. Adults was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from April 2-5, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

43% Say They Know Political Positions of Companies They Buy From

Posted on April 5, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When asked to think about the various products and services they consume, 43% of U.S. adults say they at least somewhat know the political positions taken by the companies that provide them A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 50% say they don’t know the political positions taken. Six percent (6%) are not sure.

The totals include 15% who say they know the political positions Very Well and 18% who say Not at All.

There was a significant difference based upon the levels of political engagement. Among those who discuss politics every day or nearly every day, 71% said they know the political positions of companies whose products they consume. Among those who rarely or never discuss politics, just 12% claim such knowledge.

The survey also found that 66% of adults believe companies should avoid taking positions on political issues. Another 8% thought it appropriates for companies to weigh in on topics related to their businesses. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe it is better for businesses to clearly express their views on a wide variety of issues.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Republicans and Independents believe businesses should avoid taking positions on political issues. So do 57% of Democrats.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 U.S. Adults was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from April 2-5, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

60% Believe Legal Immigration is Good for U.S. But Illegal Immigration is Bad

Posted on April 2, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide believe that legal immigration is good for the United States but illegal immigration is bad. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 16% believe both forms of immigration are good while 13% believe both are bad. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure.

Putting those numbers together shows that 76% believe legal immigration is good for America while 71% believe illegal immigration is bad.

The view that legal immigration is good while illegal immigration is bad is shared by a plurality or majority of every measured demographic group but one. Very liberal voters are split between those who see all immigration as good (42%) and those who see a distinction between legal and illegal border crossings (39%).

However, despite the majority view being shared across demographic and partisan lines, there are significant distinctions within certain groups. For example, 33% of Hispanic voters believe both legal and illegal immigration is good. Just 11% say both forms are bad. But both White and Black voters are evenly split between the number who say all immigration is good and those who say it is all bad.

One perhaps surprising finding is that those who would prefer a candidate who supports Donald Trump’s policies are most likely to make the distinction between legal and illegal immigration. Seventy-five percent (75%) of such voters believe legal immigration is good while illegal immigration is bad. That view is shared by 71% who prefer traditional Republican candidates, 50% who would prefer Bernie Sanders’ type of policies, and 46% who prefer traditional Democratic candidates.

This appears to conflict with the perception that Trump voters are opposed to all immigration. That perception may be the result of the fact that 21% of voters who prefer Trump policies believe both forms of immigration are bad. Just 2% believe both forms are good. Other voters are more likely to say that both forms of immigration are good rather than bad. Still, a solid majority of Republicans and Independents make a distinction between legal and illegal immigration. So do 49% of Democrats.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 25-27. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 269 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

78% Celebrate Easter

Posted on March 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters nationwide celebrate Easter in some fashion. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 39% who celebrate Easter as a religious holiday, 21% who celebrate with a mix of religious and secular activities, and 18% who celebrate Easter solely as a secular holiday.

Thirty-five percent (35%) consider Easter to be one of our nation’s most important holidays while 16% think it’s one of the least important. A plurality of 43% say it is somewhere in between.

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Methodology

51% Want Focus on Economic Growth, 35% Prefer Focus on Economic Fairness

Posted on March 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

When thinking about the economy, 51% of voters believe it is more important to focus on economic growth than economic fairness. Another 35% take the opposite view while 14% are not sure.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans see economic growth as more important while Democrats are more evenly divided. Forty-seven percent (47%) of those in Joe Biden’s party prefer a focus on fairness while 43% say growth.

As for Independent voters, 45% want the focus on growth and 36% want it on fairness.

At this moment in time, 25% of voters say cutting government spending would do the most to help the U.S. economy. Nineteen percent (19%) say cutting taxes would be best. Ten percent (10%) see increased government spending as most helpful while 9% say it’s cutting regulations on businesses. Another 9% believe higher taxes is the best policy for the economy while 7% favor increased regulation. Twenty percent (20%) are not sure.

Those who believe focusing on economic growth is the most important rated cutting spending and taxes as the best prescriptions. So do those who would rather focus on economic fairness.

All told, the numbers show that 53% believe reducing government involvement would be best for the economy while 26% believe the economy would benefit most from an increase in the role of government.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 18-20, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 201 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

34% Believe Federal Government Supports Founding Ideals of Freedom, Equality, Self-governance

Posted on March 28, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters believe the federal government today supports America’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 43% believe the federal government does not support these ideals and 23% are not sure.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans and 49% of Independents believe the federal government is not committed to supporting freedom, equality, and self-governance. However, 55% of Democrats believe the federal government does support them.

Other data from the survey found that 83% of voters believe the nation’s founding ideals are worth fighting for. However, just 53% believe most Americans support those ideals.

Data released earlies showed that 59% believe the federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by from March 17-18, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

41% Recently Had Dinner at Indoor Restaurant

Posted on March 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Within the past month, 41% of voters have had dinner at an indoor restaurant. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that large numbers of voters have participated in activities discouraged by CDC guidelines:

32% have hung out with friends at someone’s house
17% admit to going out in public without a mask
15% have attended a church or religious event in person
15% attended a large family gathering
14% have met friends at a bar
13% have gone on a vacation
3% have attended a live concert or sports event.

Overall, two-thirds of voters (66%) have taken part in at least one of the above activities, all of which are frowned upon by the CDC. However, a separate survey found that most voters (54%) say they have never violated CDC guidelines. The difference may be due to a lack of awareness about CDC guidelines or it could just be socially unacceptable in some circles to admit a violation of those guidelines.

Another possibility is that people don’t consciously think of all the ways that their normal activities violate CDC norms. But, when asked about specific activities, they admit to taking part.

Regardless of the reason for this gap between behavior and admission of violating CDC guidelines, there remains a huge partisan gap in terms of behavior. Nearly half of all Democrats (44%) say that they have not taken part in any of the above activities during the past month. However, just 25% of Republicans and 32% of Independents say the same.

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Methodology

28% Say Personal Finances Getting Better; 20% Say Worse

Posted on March 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters nationwide say their own personal finances are getting better. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% take the opposite view and their finances are getting worse. Forty-nine percent (49%) say their finances are remaining about the same while 2% are not sure.

Those figures reflect a significant improvement over the past couple of months. In January, just 19% thought their finances were getting better while 26% said they were getting worse. The improved economic confidence has come along with a rapidly growing belief that the worst of the pandemic is behind us.

In fact, the most recent figures have finally surpassed the pre-election levels of confidence. Last October, 27% believed the economy was getting better (25% said worse). Between the election and January, however, concerns about the pandemic grew rapidly. That was matched by a sharp decline in economic confidence.

However, since October, the partisan dynamics have changed. Prior to the election, Republicans were far more upbeat than Democrats. At that time, 43% of GOP voters said their finances were getting better while just 14% said they were getting worse. Now, Republicans are evenly divided (23% better, 21% worse).

In October, by a 31% to 18% margin, Democrats said their finances were getting worse. Now, by a 36% to 15% margin, they offer an optimistic assessment.

Independents were slightly negative last fall and are evenly divided today.

As for an educational divide, those with a college degree are fairly upbeat today while those without are evenly divided.

The survey also found that:

27% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, another 27% say poor.
29% believe the economy is getting better while 38% say worse.
47% rate their personal finances as good or excellent, 16% say poor.

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Methodology

Biden Bounce Continues: Approval Up to 60%

Posted on March 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% disapprove and 6% are not sure.

Approval of the president is up three points from a week ago and up seven points from two weeks ago. Following passage of the COVID relief bill, President Biden’s approval rating has soared to match his highest total to date.

The current totals currently include 32% who Strongly Approve and 26% who Strongly Disapprove.

While the president is enjoying a political honeymoon, underlying partisan divides remain unchanged. Forty-five percent (45%) want either Trump-like or traditional Republican policies while 44% prefer either Sanders-like or traditional Democratic policies.

On the Republican side, support for Trump-like policies dominate. On the Democratic side, equal numbers support traditional Democratic policies and Sanders-like policies.

Other survey data shows that 35% of voters favor statehood for Washington, DC. Forty-one percent (41%) are opposed. Few, however, are really following the debate.

Sixty-five percent (65%) believe the United States is still the land of opportunity.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe the federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Just 17% of voters disagree and 23% are not sure. A majority of every measured demographic group sees the federal government as a special interest group.

Other recent survey data shows that just 26% of voters nationwide believe that the right person was declared the winner in each of the last two presidential elections. Most voters (56%) believe at least one of the last two presidents was illegitimate. Most Democrats still believe Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner in 2016 and most Republicans believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner in 2020.

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Methodology

52% Favor Populist Policies, 37% Prefer Traditional Politics

Posted on March 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice between four presidential candidates with equal skills and temperament, 52% of voters would favor a candidate promoting populist policies such as those advocated by Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% would prefer more traditional establishment policies.

On a partisan basis, the results are nearly even: 45% want either Trump-like or traditional Republican policies while 44% prefer either Sanders-like or traditional Democratic policies. Overall, the results are very similar to the numbers found last October.

The totals include 30% who prefer policies like those of Trump and 15% who would rather see traditional Republican policies. On the other side of the aisle, 22% prefer policies like those offered by Sanders and 22% favor traditional Democratic policies.

Scott Rasmussen has been asking this question on a weekly basis. While the numbers periodically fluctuate, the dynamics are always the same. The partisan preference is split down the middle.

Within the parties, though, things appear to be much different. On the Republican side, the Trump like policies dominate. Typically, those supporting such policies outnumber those who would like more traditional policies by a 2 or 3 to 1 margin. On the Democratic side, the establishment and populist forces are virtually equal in number.

These results suggest potential for a significant shift in the partisan alignment over the coming years. What that alignment might be is unclear. For example, it’s easy to envision those who favor traditional Republican or traditional Democratic policies finding common ground. However, such an alliance in one party might push populists into the other party.

For now, these results provide a useful way to analyze the electorate.

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Methodology

35% Favor Statehood for Washington, DC

Posted on March 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters nationwide favor making Washington, D.C. a separate state. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% are opposed and 24% are not sure

Those totals include 17% who Strongly Favor the idea and 28% who are Strongly Opposed.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats favor the idea while 61% of Republicans are opposed.

The survey also found that just 19% are following news on the topic Very Closely.

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Methodology

65% Believe America Is Still Land of Opportunity

Posted on March 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters believe America is still the land of opportunity. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 18% disagree and 17% are not sure.

There is a significant gender gap on this question. Seventy-four percent (74%) of men see the nation as a land of opportunity. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of women share that view.

There is, however, no significant difference across racial and ethnic lines. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Hispanic voters believe the land of opportunity label still applies. So do 65% of White voters and 62% of Black voters.

Seventy percent (70%) of private sector workers say the U.S. is still a land of opportunity. So do 58% of government employees.

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Methodology

69% Say Maintaining Energy Independence More Important Than Banning Fracking

Posted on March 17, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters say maintaining America’s energy independence by producing all the energy it needs is more important than banning fracking and relying upon other nations to provide for our energy needs. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% disagree and believe banning fracking is more important. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure.

A majority of every measured demographic group places a higher priority on maintaining America’s energy independence.

The survey also found that just 42% of voters recognize that the United States is currently the world’s largest producer of gas and oil.

Related survey data found that most voters believe keeping energy costs low is more important than reducing reliance upon fossil fuels.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 11-13, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 194 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Biden Bounce: Approval Rating Up to 57% Following COVID Relief Bill

Posted on March 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% disapprove and 7% are not sure.

Following passage of the COVID Relief Bill, approval of the president is up four points from a week ago. That reverse a modest decline in recent weeks. As a result, Biden’s overall approval rating is unchanged from a month ago. The current totals currently include 32% who Strongly Approve and 26% who Strongly Disapprove.

President Biden receives approval from 92% of Democrats, 52% of Independents, and 23% of Republicans.

Other data shows that 31% say that the Coronavirus pandemic created some positive benefits in their life. Those who work for schools and colleges are twice as likely to report positive benefits.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters say they were glad to use COVID as an excuse for avoiding social activities. When asked to describe the events they were most pleased to miss, many cited weddings, reunions, family get-togethers and holiday gatherings. Business-focused social events and school activities were also mentioned.

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Methodology

39% Used COVID As Excuse to Avoid Unwanted Social Activities

Posted on March 15, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters say they were glad to use COVID as an excuse for avoiding social activities that they didn’t want to attend. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 55% did not and 6% are not sure.

When asked to describe the events they were most pleased to miss, many cited weddings, reunions, family get-togethers and holiday gatherings. Business-focused social events and school activities were also mentioned. One particularly blunt respondent said they used COVID as an excuse to avoid “Any event I deem useless or pointless.” Another said that being an introvert, this excuse provided a great sense of relief.

Among those who believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come, 50% used COVID as an excuse to get out of unwanted social events. Among those who believe the worst is behind us, just 34% did so.

As with many other findings on the pandemic, there is a significant partisan divide. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democrats were pleased to use the COVID excuse. Just 27% of Republicans did the same. Urban voters were somewhat more likely to express this view than those who live in the suburbs or rural areas.

A separate question found that 19% expect to attend fewer social events than they did before the pandemic. Twenty-nine percent (29%) expect to do more socializing and 47% expect it won’t be all that different.

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Methodology

31% Have Experienced Positive Benefits From the Pandemic

Posted on March 15, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters say that the Coronavirus pandemic created some positive benefits in their life. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 61% can’t think of any positive benefits while 8% are not sure.

Most private sector workers (58%) and retirees (72%) couldn’t think of any positive benefits in their life. However, among government employees 48% remembered some positive benefits while 45% could not.

The broad category of government employees covers many types of jobs, everything from career bureaucrats to first responders and teachers. Within this group, there is a significant difference of opinion. Those who work at a school or college are far more likely than other government employees to report positive benefits from the pandemic.

By a 60% to 36% margin, those who work in education report positive benefits. Among all other government employees, the results are similar to the population at large: 35% remember positive benefits while 53% do not.

Data released last week showed that 42% of all voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 27% think the worst is still to come. That’s the most optimistic assessment to date.

Looking back, 50% of voters believe many states and cities overreacted to the coronavirus pandemic in ways that did more harm than good. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% disagree and 13% are not sure.

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Methodology

58% Believe Most Americans Support Letting Those With Different Values to Live According to Those Values

Posted on March 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters support the founding ideal of individual freedom. More precisely, they believe most Americans today believe that every individual—including those who have different political and cultural beliefs— should be free to live according to their own values and beliefs. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% disagree and 18% are not sure.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Hispanic voters believe most Americans share that commitment to individual freedom along with 59% of White voters. Black voters are a bit less confident. Forty-eight percent (48%) believe most Americans believe everyone should be free to live according to their own values. However, 30% of Black voters disagree.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of retired voters believe most Americans are committed to individual freedom. So do 61% of private sector workers agree. However, only 46% of government employees share that optimism.

A separate survey question found that 78% believe most Americans today want to live in a land where White Americans, Black Americans, and other racial or ethnic groups are treated equally. That view is shared by a majority of every measured demographic group.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from February 18-20, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 212 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

40% Oppose Foreign Ownership of Land in U.S.

Posted on March 9, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty percent (40%) of voters do not think people living in other nations, or companies from other nations, should be allowed to own land in the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% believe foreign ownership should be allowed while 24% are not sure.

Voters under 35 tend to be supportive of foreign ownership while those 55 and older tend to be more opposed. Voters in the middle are evenly divided.

A plurality of suburban and rural voters oppose foreign ownership of land in U.S. while a plurality of rural voters support the idea.

By a 40% to 32% margin, women oppose foreign ownership of land in the U.S. while men are more evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 4-6, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 237 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Confidence Growing: 42% Now Believe Worst of Pandemic Is Behind Us, 28% Disagree

Posted on March 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters now believe the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 28% disagree and believe the worst is still to come.

That’s the most optimistic assessment yet. Until very recently, a majority or plurality of voters had said the worst is still to come in every survey dating back nearly a year. As recently as late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. At that time, only 18% believed the worst was behind us.

However, the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines dramatically decreased the levels of pessimism. By late January, 33% of voters believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us, while 40% believed the worst was still to come. Then, two weeks ago, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believed that the worst was behind us. At that point, 39% took the optimistic view while 31% gave a more pessimistic answer.

The latest numbers show that 73% of voters have either received the vaccine or know someone who has.

Other data from the survey shows that 40% of voters believe the Biden Administration will move too slowly to re-open society. Thirty-five percent (35%) fear they will move too fast. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans fear the Biden team will wait too long while 51% of Democrats fear they will move too fast.

Republicans, by a 56% to 22% margin, now believe the worst is behind us. Democrats are evenly divided on the question. Among Independents, 38% say the worst is behind us while 29% believe it is still to come.

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Methodology

59% Believe Federal Government Is A Special Interest Group

Posted on March 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe the federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% of voters disagree and 23% are not sure.

A majority of every measured demographic group sees the federal government as a special interest group.

That includes 68% of Republicans, 61% of Independent voters, and 51% of Democrats.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of White voters believe the federal government looks out primarily for its own interests. That view is shared by 60% of Hispanic voters and 56% of Black voters.

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Methodology

53% Approve of Biden Performance So Far, 39% Disapprove

Posted on March 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 39% disapprove and 7% are not sure.

Approval of the president is down one point from a week ago, down three points from two weeks ago and down seven points from a months ago. This is the fourth straight weekly decline in the president’s approval rating. However, his approval rating remains higher than the ratings ever achieved by his predecessor, Donald Trump.

The totals currently include 30% who Strongly Approve and 29% who Strongly Disapprove.

President Biden receives approval from 92% of Democrats, 44% of Independents, and 19% of Republicans.

A separate question highlighted another aspect of the deep skepticism shared by most voters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe the federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Just 17% disagree.

On a different topic, 86% of voters believe that missing in-person education has been damaging to students. Additionally, 50% of voters believe that many states and cities overreacted to the Coronavirus pandemic in ways that did more harm than good.

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Methodology

Just 26% Believe the Right Person Was Declared Winner in Last Two Presidential Elections

Posted on March 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just one-out-of-four voters (26%) believe that the right person was declared the winner in each of the last two presidential elections.

Most voters (56%) believe at least one of the last two presidents was illegitimately put into office. That includes 26% who believe Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner in 2016 and 31% who believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner in 2020. Another 17% are not sure who really won at least one of the elections. One percent (1%) believe the wrong person was declared the winner both times.

After more than four years, most Democrats (52%) still believe that Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner of the 2016 election. As for last November’s election, most Republicans (66%) believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner.

In both of those elections, just 60% of voters believe that the legitimate winner became president.

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Methodology

86% Believe Missing In-person Education Damaging to Students

Posted on March 4, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters believe that missing out on in-person teaching during the pandemic has been damaging to students. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 11% disagree.

Those totals include 53% who believe the impact has been Very Damaging and 3% who say it has not been damaging at all.

This is a rare pandemic-related topic with broad agreement across party lines. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans believe the lack of in-person teaching has been damaging to students. So do 86% of Independents and 84% of Democrats.

However, the partisan divide appears clearly on a related question. Forty-eight percent (48%) of all voters believe the health threat to students and teachers is greater than the academic threat to students. Forty-four percent (44%) take the opposite view. On this question, 70% of Democrats see the health issues as a bigger concern while 65% of Republicans are more worried about academic issues. Independents are evenly divided.

Data released recently shows that a plurality of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Additionally, 50% believe that many cities and states overreacted to the pandemic in ways that did more harm than good.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from February 25-27, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 156 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

52% Have Favorable Opinion of Fauci

Posted on March 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Dr. Anthony Fauci. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% have an unfavorable view of him while 17% are not sure.

Fauci has become a visible presence in the public dialogue over the coronavirus pandemic. His approval ratings reflect a wide partisan divide that has been found on many topics related to the pandemic.

Fauci is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats but unfavorably by 56% of Republicans. Independent voters are evenly divided: 40% favorable and 35% unfavorable.

Methodology

73% Have Received COVID Vaccine or Know Someone Who Has

Posted on March 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters nationwide have either received a COVID vaccination or know someone who has. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 20% who have been vaccinated. Another 53% have a close friend or relative who have already received the vaccine.

Not surprisingly, the numbers vary by age. Among senior citizens, 87% have either been vaccinated (54%) or know someone who has (33%). Among the youngest voters, those aged 18-24, just 3% have been vaccinated. However, even among those young voters, 58% have a close friend or relative who has been vaccinated.

The growing reality of the vaccine has significantly increased the number who believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us.

Additionally, 50% of voters now believe that many states and cities overreacted to the Coronavirus pandemic.

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Methodology

50% Believe Many States and Cities Overreacted to Coronavirus Pandemic

Posted on March 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking back, 50% of voters believe many states and cities overreacted to the Coronavirus pandemic in ways that did more harm than good. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Republicans believe many states and cities overreacted. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Democrats believe that did not happen. Among Independent voters, 50% believe states and cities overreacted while 34% do not.

Men, by a 56% to 32% margin, are more likely to believe that many states and cities overreacted. Women are more evenly divided. Forty-five percent (45%) believe many overreacted while 41% do not.

For the second straight week, 39% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Thirty-two percent (32%) now believe the worst is still to come. That’s little changed from 31% a week ago. However, last week was the first time ever that a plurality of voters believed the worst was behind us.

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Methodology

Biden Approval Rating Slips to 54%

Posted on March 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters nationwide now approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disapprove and 6% are not sure.

Approval of the president is down two points from last week and down six points from three weeks ago. This is the third straight weekly decline in the president’s approval rating. However, his approval rating remains higher than the ratings ever achieved by his predecessor, Donald Trump.

The totals currently include 31% who Strongly Approve and 30% who Strongly Disapprove.

President Biden receives approval from 92% of Democrats, 47% of Independents, and 19% of Republicans.

Other survey data shows that 40% of voters now expect the nation to be more polarized in a year. That’s up 12 points since Biden took office just over a month ago.

Views of Democrats have not changed during the president’s first month in office. However, the Republicans and Independents who expect the nation to be more polarized has increased significantly during that time.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of all voters think the country will be more unified in a year. That’s down three points from a month ago.

On a different topic, 43% of African-Americans would feel threatened if approached by a police officer while alone. Just 33% would feel safe.

Additionally, 50% of voters believe that many states and cities overreacted to the Coronavirus pandemic in ways that did more harm than good.

Other recent polling shows that, for the first time ever, a plurality of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Thirty-nine percent (39%) hold that optimistic view while 31% believe the worst is still to come. Sixty-one percent (61%) believe the minimum wage should be set by states rather than having a single national standard. And, 71% think it’s likely that liberals and conservatives will eventually rely upon separate social media platforms.

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Methodology

40% Expect America To Be More Polarized in a Year, Up 12 Points from a Month Ago

Posted on March 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking ahead to next year at this time, 40% expect America will be more polarized than it is today. That’s up twelve points from a month ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% of voters believe America will be more unified, down three points. Twenty-nine percent (29%) aren’t expecting much change.

The previous poll was conducted in the days leading up to the inauguration of President Joe Biden. Since that time, there has been no measurable change in perceptions among Democrats. Currently, 34% of those in Biden’s party expect the nation to be more unified, while just 18% expect things to get worse.

However, among Republicans, the number expecting the nation to become more polarized jumped from 37% a month ago to 65% now.

Among Independent voters, 41% now anticipate an increase in polarization. That’s up from 28% a month ago.

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Methodology

43% of African-Americans Would Feel Threatened If Approached By Police Officer

Posted on February 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If they were alone and approached by a police officer, 43% of African-American voters say they would feel threatened rather than safe. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% of African-Americans would feel safe and 24% are not sure.

These results are especially striking because a majority or plurality of every other measured demographic group would feel safe in that situation. Seventy-six percent (76%) of White voters would feel safe along with 53% of Hispanic voters.

Overall, among all voters, 67% would feel safe and 18% would feel threatened.

There was no gender gap, but a significant generation gap. Among senior citizens, 89% would feel safe and 3% would be threatened. Voters 18-24 were more evenly divided: 41% would feel safe, 39% threatened.

On a partisan basis, 81% of Republicans say they would feel safe in that situation. So would 59% of Democrats and 62% of Independents.

As on many issues, there is a significant gap between the views of White and Black Democrats. Seventy-two percent (72%) of White Democrats would feel safe while only 14% would be threatened. However, a plurality of Black Democrats (44%) would feel threatened. Just 37% would feel safe.

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Methodology

Biden Job Approval Rating at 56%

Posted on February 24, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% disapprove and 6% are not sure.

Approval of the president is down a point from last week and down four points from two weeks ago. However, that may be more a reflection of statistical noise rather than evidence of declining support. For five straight weeks, President Biden’s Job Approval rating has stayed within two points of 58%. That’s within the survey’s margin of error.

However, the results may include a hint that intensity of support has slipped a bit. Currently, 30% Strongly Approve and 28% Strongly Disapprove. Strong approval is down five points from a week ago and down 11 from the president’s first week in office. Strong disapproval is up eleven points since the president’s first week.

While Democrats remain unified and strongly support the president, there is a gap between Republicans who prefer Trump-like policies and Traditional Republicans. Among those who prefer Trump-like populist policies just 11% approve of Biden while 84% disapprove. Those who support traditional Republican policies are more evenly divided: 49% approve and 44% disapprove.

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Methodology

71% Think Conservatives, Liberals Will Eventually Have Separate Social Media Platforms

Posted on February 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

In the 1960s and ’70s, three major television networks (CBS, NBC, and ABC) dominated the media landscape. They provided a common base of entertainment and news programming shared by most of the nation. But with the arrival of cable television and then the internet, countless competitors divided up the media landscape serving niche audiences in a way that has now become familiar.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters think the social media industry may follow a similar path. They think it’s likely that Republicans and Democrats, conservatives and liberals will eventually rely upon different social media companies. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 14% consider that outcome unlikely. They expect large social media companies like Facebook and Twitter to continue commanding a mass audience.

Those figures include 34% who believe it’s Very Likely the social media world will fragment in this manner and 5% who say it’s Not at All Likely.

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Methodology

61% Want States to Set Minimum Wage, 30% Favor National Standard

Posted on February 23, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters nationwide believe states establish the appropriate minimum wage so that places like New York City have a higher minimum wage than places like rural Idaho. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% take the opposite view and want the federal government to establish a standard minimum wage that is the same everywhere in the country.

Support for letting states determine the minimum wage comes from 67% of Rural voters, 61% in the Suburbs, and 57% in Urban areas.

On a partisan basis, most Republicans (74%) and Independents (65%) think the states should set standards appropriate for their area. Democrats are evenly divided: 48% want a nationally standard minimum wage while 48% believe the states should decide.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Very Liberal voters favor a national standard. That is the only measured demographic group showing majority support for having the federal government set the standard.

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Methodology

Voters Evenly Divided As To Whether Pandemic is Bigger Health or Economic Threat

Posted on February 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters nationwide believe health concerns represent the biggest threat from the coronavirus pandemic. However, a Scott Rasmussen survey found that another 48% believe the biggest threat has to do with economic concerns.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans believe that economic problems are the biggest threat while 66% of Democrats see health concerns as more significant. Among Independent voters 52% are more worried about the economic threat while 43% say the opposite.

Data released earlier showed that, for the first time every, a plurality of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us.

Those who see the health concern as a bigger threat are fairly evenly divided as to whether the worst is behind us: 31% say yes while 36% disagree.

However, those who see economic concerns as a bigger threat are more upbeat. By a 49% to 27% margin, they believe the worst has come an gone.

Early in the pandemic, health concerns were generally seen as more significant. However, in June, 2020, for three straight weeks of polling, there was more concern about the economic threat than the health threat.

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Methodology

First Time Ever: Plurality Believes Worst of Pandemic Behind Us

Posted on February 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters now believe that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 31% disagree and believe the worst is still to come.

Rasmussen has been tracking this question throughout the pandemic and this is the first time ever that a plurality has offered a positive view. As recently as late November, 68% believed that the worst was still to come. At that time, only 18% believed the worst was behind us.

However, the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines dramatically decreased the levels of pessimism. By late January, 33% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 40% believe the worst is still to come.

Republicans, by a 50% to 23% margin, believe the worst is behind us. Democrats and Independents are evenly divided on the question.

The survey found that 17% of voters have had the vaccine. But awareness of the impact is much more significant. Among those who have not yet had the vaccine, 63% know a close friend or family member who has been vaccinated.

Suburban voters are more optimistic than those living in urban or rural areas.

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Methodology

23% Watch Sports Most Days; 38% Rarely or Never

Posted on February 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters nationwide watch college or professional sports every day or most days. At the opposite end of the spectrum are 38% who rarely or never watch sports. In between are 25% who watch once or twice a week and 13% who tune in or go to a game roughly once a month.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of men watch sports most days along with 15% of women.

Among urban voters, 31% watch sports on most days. So do 23% of suburban voters and 13% of rural voters.

There is also a partisan divide. Thirty-three percent (33%) of Democrats watch sports on most days. Just 22% of Republicans and 14% of Independents do the same.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from February 11-13, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 112 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Over Next Decade, 32% Believe American Society Will Become More Fair and Decent

Posted on February 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-two percent (32%) of voters believe that, over the next decade or so, American society will become more fair and decent. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% hold the opposite view and believe society will become less fair and decent. Twenty percent (20%) expect things to remain about the same and 13% are not sure.

Mixed views are found in all measured demographic groups. However, a plurality of Democrats, college graduates, urban voters, and upper income voters express an optimistic view. Republicans, white voters, rural voters, and lower-income voters have a more pessimistic assessment. This may simply reflect the fact that supporters of the team in the White House are typically more optimistic than supporters of the team that is out of power.

Data released earlier showed that 40% believe American society is generally fair and decent. Fifty percent (45%) hold the opposite view. These figures are little changed from last June, but are notably more pessimistic than in the 1990s.

Just 14% of voters think society is currently fair and decent and will get even better over the next decade.

At the other end of the spectrum, 17% believe society is currently unfair and discriminatory and will get worse.

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Methodology

40% Believe U.S. Society is Fair and Decent, 50% Disagree

Posted on February 16, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty percent (40%) of voters nationwide believe American society is generally fair and decent. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 50% disagree and believe American society is generally unfair and discriminatory.

Those figures are little changed since last June. Following the killing of George Floyd, just 38% believed our society is generally fair and decent while 47% took the opposite view.

However, these numbers reflect a dramatic change from the first time Scott Rasmussen asked that question back in the 1990s. In those days, voters routinely said society was generally fair and decent by roughly a 2-to-1 margin.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans believe American society is generally fair and decent. However, 61% of of Democrats take the opposite view. So do 52% of Independent voters.

Not surprisingly, there is also a big racial divide on this question. White voters are evenly divided while 64% of Black voters say our society is unfair and discriminatory. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Hispanic voters agree.

Other data from the survey found that 76% of voters believe most Americans want to live in a society where white and Black Americans are treated equally. Thirteen percent (13%) believe that’s not true and 11% aren’t sure.

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Methodology

37% Believe Biden Administration Will Wait Too Long To Re-open Society; 36% Fear the Opposite

Posted on February 15, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters nationwide worry that the Biden Administration will wait too long to re-open society. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% have the opposite view and fear the Administration will move too quickly. Twenty-six percent (26%) are not sure.

By a 40% to 33% margin, suburban voters tend to worry that the Biden team will wait too long. Urban voters, by a 43% to 31% margin, have the opposite concern. Rural voters are evenly divided.

On a partisan basis, 61% of Republicans fear Biden will wait too long while 46% of Democrats believe he will move too fast. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Younger voters are more worried about re-opening too fast. Voters aged 45-64 are fairly evenly divided. Sixty percent (60%) of senior citizens worry that the new president and his team will take too long.

This survey was intended to measure general perceptions of President Biden’s approach. However, it should be recognized that the ultimate decisions on how quickly society should re-open will depend upon decisions made by governors, mayors, health officials, and individual Americans.

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Methodology

14% Say They Will Never Get COVID Vaccine

Posted on February 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fourteen percent (14%) of voters nationwide say that they will never get the COVID vaccine. At the other end of the spectrum, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 15% have already been vaccinated and 35% want to receive the vaccine as soon as possible.

In between are 19% who say they want to wait and see before getting vaccinated and another 16% who are in no particular rush.

Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans say that they will never get vaccinated. So do 19% of Independent voters. Just 4% of Democrats share that view.

At the other extreme, 62% of Democrats say they have either been vaccinated already or want to be as soon as possible. Just 47% of Republicans hold that view along with 37% of Independents.

There is also a significant difference in attitudes by age. Two-thirds of senior citizens (69%) have either been vaccinated or want to be as soon as possible. However, the number of younger voters holding that view is below 50% for every age breakdown.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from February 4-6, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 197 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

49% Believe Restricting Free Speech Worse Than Spreading Fake News, 38% Disagree

Posted on February 10, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters worry more about giving the federal government power to restrict free speech than about the dangers of spreading fake news and disinformation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% disagree and worry more about fake news. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure.

The survey results highlight significant partisan and ideological differences. Republicans, by a 60% to 34% margin, are more worried about giving the federal government power to restrict free speech and determine which news is appropriate to publish. Independent voters, by a 46% to 33% margin, tend to share that view. Democrats, however, are divided on the question. A narrow plurality (46%) worry more about fake news while 41% are more concerned about restricting free speech.

Ideologically, most conservatives are more worried about restricting free speech. Moderate and Somewhat Liberal voters are divided, but narrowly express a greater concern about restricting free speech. Very Liberal voters take the opposite view. By a 49% to 39% margin, those voters worry more about the spread of fake news and disinformation.

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Methodology

Biden Job Approval: 60%

Posted on February 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide approve of the way President Biden is performing his job. That’s up two points from a week ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% disapprove and 8% are not sure.

Those figures include 38% who Strongly Approve and 23% who Strongly Disapprove.

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Methodology

72% Say Political Elites Believe They Are Superior To Everyday Americans

Posted on February 8, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters nationwide think political elites believe they are superior to everyday Americans. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 11% disagree and 17% are not sure.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of men think political elites view themselves as superior. So do 68% of women.

That view is shared by 77% of suburban voters, 70% from urban areas, and 66% in rural America.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of private sector workers think political elites see themselves as superior. Just 63% of government employees hold that view.

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Methodology

72% Believe In-Person Learning Best for Students

Posted on February 3, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-two percent (72%) of voters believe that students learn more from in-person schooling than they do from virtual classrooms. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 9% disagree and believe virtual classrooms are better. Twelve percent (12%) believe results are about the same with both approaches and 7% are not sure.

This is one issue that people with and without a college degree share similar views. Seventy-four percent (74%) of college graduates believe in-person learning is best. So do 70% of those without a degree.

More than 60% of every measured demographic group believes in-person learning is best. That belief is shared by 79% of Republicans, 71% of Independents, and 67% of Democrats.

Other survey data shows that 53% of voters believe schools in their area should be open for in-person learning. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from January 28-30, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 211 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Vaccine Arrival Has Dramatically Reduced Pessimism About Pandemic

Posted on February 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

The arrival of COVID-19 vaccines has dramatically decreased pessimism about the coronavirus pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen national survey conducted January 28-30 found that 33% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 40% believe the worst is still to come.

While the overall numbers still reflect a slightly pessimistic assessment, it’s the lowest level of pessimism ever recorded. Additionally, the numbers represent a remarkable turnaround since vaccine distribution has become a reality. Last October, just before the presidential election, 56% of voters believed the worst was yet to come. That pessimistic view grew to 68% just a few weeks after the election and remained above 60% for the rest of the year.

So, the number with a pessimistic view has fallen 28 percentage points—from 68% to 40%– in just a couple of months.

On the flip side, the number who believe the worst is behind us has nearly doubled—from 18% in late November to 33% in late January.

Among the still relatively small number of voters who have already been vaccinated, a plurality (41%) now believes the worst is behind us.

A plurality of Republicans (43%) now believes the worst is behind us while a plurality of Democrats (48%) believes the worst is still to come.

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Methodology

82% Disapprove of Those Who Occupied Capitol

Posted on January 26, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 82% of voters disapproved of those who took part in the occupation of the U.S. Capitol. The survey found that disapproval came from 71% of Republicans. And, among those who believe President Donald Trump was the legitimate winner of Election 2020 — those who believe the election was stolen — 58% disapprove of the actions they saw on January 6.

However, fully one-third of all voters (33%) believe that most Trump voters supported the attack on the Capitol. That figure includes a solid plurality of Democrats (46%).

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from January 17-19, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were contacted online through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

68% Believe US Provides Citizens With More Freedom Than Any Other Nation

Posted on January 26, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters believe the United States provides its citizens with more freedom than just about any other major nation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% disagree and 13% are not sure.

There is a massive generation gap on this question. Senior citizens, by an 80% to 7% margin believe the U.S. does provide more freedom than other nations. However, the youngest voters–those 18-24– are evenly divided. Just 44% of them believe the U.S. offers more freedom while 39% say it’s not true.

A majority of every other measured demographic group believes the U.S. offers its citizens more freedom than other nations.

The survey also found that 83% believe it is Very Important to protect the freedoms and rights of individual Americans.

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Methodology

How Voters Describe Joe Biden–Results from Open End Survey Question

Posted on January 22, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

From January 14-16, 2021, RMG Research, Inc. asked 1,200 Registered Voters what word they would use to describe Joe Biden. As highlighted in the word clouds below, Republicans and Democrats have very different perceptions. Responses from GOP voters are shown on the left. Responses from Democratic voters are shown on the right.

55% Say Trump Worst President of Past Half Century, 16% Think He Was the Best

Posted on January 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide rate Donald Trump as the worst president of the past half-century. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that Barack Obama came in a distant second at 25%, with no other recent president reaching double digits.

Obama topped the list as the best president of the half century–39% of voters hold that view. In second place on that list was Ronald Reagan at 22%. Sixteen percent (16%) of voters named Trump as the best.

The results highlight how deeply entrenched the partisan divide has become. Fifty percent (50%) of voters selected a Democrat as the best president while 49% selected a Republican.

On a net basis, Reagan came out on top. While 22% named him the best president of the past half century, just 1% said he was the worst. That gave him a net positive number of 21. Obama earned a positive 14 rating (39% best, 25% worst).

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Democrats consider Obama the best president of the past five decades. Republicans are divided–38% say it was Reagan and 33% Trump.

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Methodology

24% Believe Nation Will Be More Unified in a Year, 28% Say More Polarized

Posted on January 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking ahead to next year at this time, 24% of voters believe America will be more unified. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 28% expect the nation to be more polarized while 30% aren’t expecting much change.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan divide. Thirty-five percent (35%) of Democrats expect the nation to be more unified while just 19% expect things to get worse. Among Republicans, 37% expect the nation to become more polarized while 18% expect some improvement. As for Independent voters, 16% believe the nation will become more unified while 28% anticipate an increase in polarization.

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Methodology

49% Say Highest Loyalty is To Family, 22% Faith, 17% Self

Posted on January 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters nationwide say their top loyalty is to their family. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 22% say their highest loyalty is to their faith or religion while 17% say it’s to themselves. Nine percent (9%) name the federal government, 3% their state government, and 1% their employer.

A majority of voters in every measured demographic group name either family or faith is their top priority. However, the balance between the two varies considerably. For example, Very Conservative voters are equally divided between those options with 32% naming both family and faith as their top loyalty. Among Very Liberal voters, 45% name family and only 8% cite their faith or religion.

It is interesting to note that those with the strongest ideological convictions are more likely than others to name the federal government. Seventeen percent (17%) of Very Liberal voters hold that view along with 16% of Very Conservative voters. Just 6% of all other voters give their loyalty first to the federal government.

Thirty percent (30%) of Republicans offer the highest loyalty to their faith or religion. That view is shared by 20% of Independent voters and 16% of Democrats. However, as a many issues, there is a significant divide between White Democrats and Black Democrats. Among White Democrats, just 11% name faith or religion as their highest loyalty. Among Black Democrats, however, that figure rises to 29%.

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Methodology

59% Approve Of How Biden Performed Role As President-elect

Posted on January 18, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 59% of voters nationwide approve of the way Joe Biden has performed his role as President-elect. The numbers include 34% who Strongly Approve and 25% who Strongly Disapprove.

Overall, Biden earns approval from 73% of urban voters, 56% of those in suburbs, and 46% of rural Americans.

Positive reviews come from 91% of Democrats, 51% of Independents and 26% of Republicans.

As he prepares to take office, Biden’s ratings are up several points compared to his ratings in November and December. That may reflect a bounce following the January 6 occupation of the U.S. Capitol. However, it may also be a reflection of people getting more comfortable with Biden as inauguration day approaches. In either case, Biden will likely be rated by a different standard once he transitions from President-elect to President of the United States.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from January 14-16, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 228 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

61% Want President-elect Biden to Build Larger Governing Majority by Finding Common Ground

Posted on January 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters want President-elect Biden to build a larger governing majority with policies that can win over some Republicans and other Trump supporters. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% want him to ignore the concerns of his political opponents and try to implement as many Democratic policies as possible.

Other than Very Liberal voters, a majority of every measured demographic group wanted the incoming president to build a larger governing majority by finding some common ground. Very Liberal voters are evenly divided–47% prefer the consensus building approach while 45% want him to ignore the concerns of others and implement Democratic policies.

Among those who say faith or religion is a Very Important part of their life, 68% favor the consensus building approach. Just 14% take the opposite view. As for those who say faith or religion is Not at All Important, 52% want Biden to build a larger governing majority. Thirty percent (30%) want him to focus on Democratic policies.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from January 7-9, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 227 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

19% Say Personal Finances Getting Better; Down 8 Points Since Election

Posted on January 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Economic optimism declined as the new year arrived. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% of voters believe their personal finances are getting better. That’s down three points from a month ago and down eight since October.

Twenty-six percent (26%) believe their own finances are getting worse. That’s up just a single point compared to the pre-election survey.

The decline in optimism has been driven by Republicans. Prior to the election, 43% of GOP voters believed their finances were getting better. That fell to 36% after the election and 18% now. Such a partisan perspective is fairly normal following an election. Typically, Republicans are more upbeat about the economy when a Republican is in the White House, and Democrats are more optimistic when a Democrat is president.^[1]^[2]

That decline has been partially offset by an increased confidence among Democrats. Twenty-five percent (25%) of those in President-elect Biden’s party now say their finances are getting better. That’s up seven points since Biden was elected.

Among Independent voters, 14% now say their finances are getting better while 28% say worse.

The survey also found that just 12% believe the overall economy is getting better while 51% say it’s getting worse.

Eighteen percent (18%) currently rate the economy as good or excellent while 37% say it’s in poor shape.

On the personal front, 37% say their own finances are good or excellent. Twenty-three percent (23%) say their finances are in poor shape.

Methodology

The online survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from January 2-3, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were contacted online or via text. They were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Reality Check for Trump–and Biden–Supporters

Posted on December 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

One of the most important jobs of a public opinion pollster is to tell people what they need to hear rather than what they want to hear. Unfortunately, in most media commentary today, both supporters and opponents of President Trump are being told only what they want to hear.

With this in mind, I would like to offer the following reality check.

Supporters of President Trump need to be told that the election is over. Most of the president’s supporters have accepted that reality, but a significant minority has not. They may not like the truth, but former Vice President Joe Biden is now the President-elect and will be inaugurated on January 20. There is no Constitutional, legal, or political process that can change that outcome.

Accepting the reality that Biden won is not a form of betrayal or a sign of weakness. It is simply an acknowledgment of where things stand today.

I understand the anger and disappointment that millions of Trump supporters feel. I felt it firsthand in angry responses throughout the campaign when my polling and commentary suggested a Biden victory was the most likely outcome. I saw it in the data where large numbers of Trump voters ignored the warning signs and were confident that the president would be re-elected.

Rather than being misled to believe that there is still a path to re-election victory for President Trump, these voters should be encouraged to channel their energy in a more productive manner. One very productive direction would be devoting energy on a state-by-state basis to reform election procedures prior to the 2022 elections. Polling I conducted in Pennsylvania showed strong bi-partisan support for significant reforms.

But Trump supporters are not the only ones in need of a reality check.

The strongest Trump opponents are gleeful at the visible disappointment and reaction of Trump’s strongest supporters. Far too many still believe that Hillary Clinton was right to call them deplorable and their media outlets are promoting the idea that the failure to trust the election results is unprecedented.

In reality, the response of Trump supporters following the 2020 election has much in common with the response of Clinton supporters following the 2016 election.

In both 2016 and 2020, fans of the losing candidate never took seriously the possibility that their team might lose. When the votes were counted and the unthinkable happened, an overriding belief quickly developed that the other candidate could not have won without cheating. That led to a conviction among many on the losing side that the winner was not legitimately elected.

Following the Clinton campaign, Democrats talked of impeaching the president even before he took office. And they repeatedly believed that the next bit of breaking news was going to provide the evidence needed to remove the president from office. But that news never came because the evidence did not exist. Still, four years later, the losing candidate herself claimed that Donald Trump was not a legitimate president.

Understanding that we have had two presidential elections in a row where the losers believe they were cheated out of victory should instill a great desire to rebuild confidence in our electoral process. Seeing this reality would help Biden voters channel their energy in a more effective manner.

Recognizing the need to reform our processes of voting and counting the ballots is not the same as agreeing with those who believe the 2020 election was stolen. It is simply an acknowledgment that governments derive their only just power from the consent of the governed. If voters do not trust the process through which elected officials are elected, the government itself will have no legitimacy.

Despite our current troubles, I remain optimistic about America’s future. Our political system is badly broken, and things may get worse before they get better. But, as I wrote in my recent column for the Deseret News, a new generation of leaders is coming soon. The most influential of them will recognize that their job is not to change America. It is to change American politics so that our government can follow where the culture is leading.

22% Say Their Personal Finances Getting Better; 28% Say Worse

Posted on December 10, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters believe their personal finances are getting better, while another 28% say their finances are getting worse. A PoliticalIQ survey found that 48% believe their personal finances are staying about the same, and 2% are not sure.

The results reflect a modest increase in pessimism following Election 2020. The number saying their finances are getting better are down five points just prior to Election Day and down four from the weekend after the election. On the other side of the equation, the number saying their finances are worse is up three points since the pre-election survey.

The decline in optimism has been driven by Republicans. Prior to the election, 43% of GOP voters believed their finances were getting better. That fell to 36% after the election and 24% now. Such a partisan perspective is fairly normal following an election. Typically, Republicans are more upbeat about the economy when a Republican is in the White House and Democrats more optimistic when a Democrat is president.

What is a bit unusual is that there has not been a corresponding bounce in optimism among Democrats. Prior to the election, 18% of those in Joe Biden’s party said that their personal finances were getting better. That number has inched up just three points to 21% today.

It is impossible to know precisely why Democratic optimism has not increased. It may be that President-elect Biden’s victory was accompanied by disappointing results for Democrats in House, Senate, and State Legislative Races.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from December 3-5, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 192 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

45% Say It’s Appropriate To Discuss Politics At Holiday Gatherings; 43% Disagree

Posted on December 9, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters nationwide think it’s appropriate to discuss politics at family holiday gatherings. A Political IQ survey found that 43% disagree and believe it’s a topic that should be avoided.

Perhaps not surprisingly, those with the strongest political views are most likely to see political discussions as appropriate. Very Conservative voters, by a 61% to 32% margin, hold that view. So do Very Liberal voters, by a similar 63% to 29% margin. However, a plurality of those with less ideologically extreme view would are much more likely to say such conversations should be avoided. Among those who are Somewhat Conservative, Moderate, or Somewhat Liberal, just 41% believe politics is a topic for discussion at family holiday gatherings.

As on many topics, there is also a substantial divide. By a 55% to 34% margin, those with a college degree are okay with political discussions over the holidays. Those without a degree take the opposite view by a 49% to 39% margin.

Most men (52%) are okay with the political discussions. A plurality of women (46%) are not.

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Methodology

59% Want Biden to Focus on Restoring Trust in Gov’t Rather Than Policy Goals, 26% Disagree

Posted on December 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters believe it is more important for a Biden Administration to focus on restoring trust and confidence in our system of politics, elections, and government rather than advancing specific policy goals. A Political IQ survey found that just 26% take the opposite view.

This is perhaps unsurprising given the high levels of distrust that have continued for decades. It has been nearly half a century since most Americans trusted the federal government to do the right thing most of the time.

A majority of every measured demographic group places a higher priority on restoring trust rather than advancing policy goals.

One step toward restoring trust might be a focus on election law reform. A recent Political IQ survey of Pennsylvania voters found strong bi-partisan support for a large number of reforms. National polling has shown similarly broad support for reforms that will build trust in election results.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from November 27-28, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were contacted online or via text. They were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

For News Organization, 47% Say Diversity of Thought Matters More Than Demographic Diversity

Posted on December 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to the staff for a news service, 47% of voters believe diversity of thought and opinion is more important than diversity along racial, ethnic, gender, and other demographic lines. A Political IQ survey found that 30% disagree and believe demographic diversity is more important. Twenty-three percent (23%) are not sure which matters the most.

Democrats are evenly divided on this question. However, Republicans and Independents tend to see diversity of thought as more important.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Hispanic voters and 48% of White voters view diversity of thought as more important. Black voters, by a 48% to 35% margin, take the opposite view.

The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, also found that 47% believe it is possible to have diversity of thought and opinion without demographic diversity. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree and believe demographic diversity is needed to have diversity of thought.

By a 58% to 23% margin, those who see diversity of thought as more important also believe it is possible to have such diversity without also having demographic diversity. Those who see demographic diversity as more important on evenly divided on that point.

Finally, by a 52% to 25% margin, voters tend to believe that demographic diversity does not guarantee diversity of thought and opinion. They believe it is possible for a demographically diverse news organization to still present a single ideological perspective with no diversity of thought and opinion.

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Methodology

57% Say Protecting Free Speech More Important Than Preventing Spread of Misinformation

Posted on November 30, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters nationwide believe that protecting free speech so that all voices and opinions can be heard is more important than limiting free speech to prevent the spread of misinformation. A Political IQ survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 31% take the opposite view and believe preventing the spread of misinformation is more important. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure.

A majority of every measured demographic group but one sees protecting free speech as more important. The sole exception is government employees who are fairly evenly divided. Fifty percent (50%) of those on the public payroll say preventing the spread of misinformation is more important while 44% say protecting free speech is the higher priority.

by a 59% to 30% margin, private sector workers believe protecting free speech is more important. Among retirees, 59% see free speech as more important while 34% take the opposite view.

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Methodology

83% of Pennsylvania Voters Say It’s Important to Reform Election Laws Prior to Next Election

Posted on November 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Pennsylvania voters say it’s important to reform Pennsylvania’s voting laws before the next election. A Political IQ survey found that just 11% disagree.

Those totals include 63% who say election law reform is Very Important and only 3% who say it is Not at All Important.

There’s also strong support for many specific reforms:

88% agree that, prior to the election, government agencies should clean the voter registration files and remove the names of all who have moved or died.
75% strongly approve of requiring all mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day.
68% think government agencies should be required to report the vote totals from all ballots on Election Night.
88% believe both Republican and Democratic party officials should be allowed in the room for every step of the ballot collection and ballot counting procedures.
75% say all voters who cast their ballot in person should be required to show a photo ID before voting.
For those who mail in their ballot, 58% believe they should they required to include a copy of their photo ID.
56% want ballot harvesting to be outlawed.

Additionally, 69% want mail-in ballots sent only to those who request them. Twenty-seven percent (27%) believe they should be sent to all voters.

Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from November 16-19, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the state’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population. Among the respondents who voted in the presidential election, 50% voted for Biden, 46% for Trump, and 3% for some other candidate. The actual vote count in Pennsylvania shows Biden at 50%, Trump at 49%, and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen at 1%. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Pessimism Growing: 62% Believe Worst of Pandemic Still to Come

Posted on November 17, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Pessimism about the pandemic has risen in recent weeks. A Political IQ survey found that 62% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come. That’s up six points from a month ago. It’s also just one point shy of the high-water mark for pessimism recorded in July.

In July, however, just 15% thought the worst was behind us. That figure is 22% today.

Throughout August and September, weekly polling showed pessimism about the pandemic gradually declining. During September, fewer than half believed the worst was yet to come. However, that all changed following news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Republicans now believe the worst is behind us. However, 80% of Democrats and 19% of independents believe the worst is still to come.

The table below highlights selected results showing trends over the past few months.

	Worst of Pandemic is Behind Us	Worst of Pandemic is Still to Come
Oct. 15-17	22%	56%
Oct. 8-10	27%	52%
Oct. 1-3	24%	55%
Sept. 3-5	29%	49%
Aug. 13-15	20%	59%
July 23-25	15%	63%
June 4-6	29%	42%
April 9-11	16%	60%

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from November 12-14, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 276 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

75% Think Biden Likely To Impose Strict National Lockdown

Posted on November 16, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

To deal with the pandemic, 75% of voters believe President-elect Biden will impose a strict nationwide lockdown. A Political IQ poll found that 15% consider such a lockdown order unlikely while 9% are not sure.

Those totals include 40% who consider it Very Likely and just 3% who say it’s Not at All Likely.

At the same time, however, just 43% believe governments should be imposing stricter lockdowns where they live. The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found that 50% believe governments should either be easing restrictions (28%) or making no changes (22%). An additional 7% are not sure.

There is a broad expectation across all segments of society that Biden is likely to impose a strict national lockdown. However, there is a huge partisan divide as to whether that’s the right thing to do.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans expect Biden will try to impose a strict national lockdown. Just 25% of GOP voters favor stricter lockdowns in their own area.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats think it’s likely Biden will impose a strict national lockdown. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats want stricter lockdowns in their area.
Among Independent voters, 69% believe Biden will impose a national lockdown while 41% think that’s the appropriate policy.

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Methodology

61% Believe It Is Possible to Know Who Actually Won Close Swing State Elections

Posted on November 16, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters nationwide believe it is possible to know for certain which candidate won the election in swing states where the election was very close. A PoliticalIQ.com survey found that 24% don’t think it’s possible while 15% are not sure.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Democrats believe it is possible to know who won those states. Independents, by a 52% to 26% margin, agree.

However, Republicans are evenly divided. Forty-one percent (41%) believe it is possible to know and 41% say it is not.

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Methodology

29% Believe Children Born Today Will Live Better Than Their Parents, 35% Say Worse

Posted on November 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters believe children born today will live better lives than their parents. However, a Political IQ national survey found that 35% take the opposite view and believe it will be worse.

The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found that 16% believe there won’t be much difference and 20% are not sure.

Solid pluralities of Republicans and Independents believe children born today will be worse off than their parents. By a 38% to 24% margin, Democrats take the more optimistic view. This partisan divide is likely the result of the presidential election. People tend to be more optimistic when their party controls the White House.

Rural voters are significantly more pessimistic than urban or suburban voters.

Senior citizens are far more pessimistic than younger voters.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from November 5-7, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 168 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population. The sample included 1,052 respondents who say they voted in Election 2020. Of that group, 51% voted for Joe Biden and 46% for Donald Trump.

26% Say Their Finances Are Getting Better, 26% Worse

Posted on November 11, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters believe their personal finances are getting better while another 26% say their finances are getting worse. A Political IQ survey found that 45% believe their personal finances are staying about the same and 3% are not sure.

This survey was conducted last Thursday through Saturday, following Election Day. It shows a slight decline in optimism compared to a pre-election survey when 29% said better and 26% said worse. The decline comes almost entirely from Republicans. Prior to the election, 45% of GOP voters believed their finances were getting better. That fell to 36% after the election.

There was little change among Democrats and Independents. However, that could change.

Typically, Republicans are more upbeat about the economy when a Republican is in the White House and Democrats more optimistic when a Democrat is president. This particular survey was conducted after the election but before Joe Biden was declared the winner of 270 Electoral College votes. At the time, the survey found that just 49% believed Biden was the winner.

Based upon historical trends, therefore, it would not be surprising to see confidence of Democrats increase as it becomes more likely that Biden will take office. At the same time, the economic confidence of Republicans could fall further. We will conduct another survey on this topic in the coming days.

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Methodology

13% Talk Politics Every Day, 27% Rarely or Never

Posted on November 10, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirteen percent (13%) of Registered Voters discuss politics with family and friends every day or nearly every day. A Political IQ national survey found that twice as many–27%– rarely or never discuss the topic.

Overall, 37% discuss politics on most days, 20% about once a week, and 41% less than once a week.

The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found that there was little difference between Trump and Biden voters when it comes to discussing politics. Forty-three percent (43%) of Trump supporters talk politics more than once a week. So do 42% of Biden voters. Those who voted for some other candidate or chose not to vote are less interested in talking politics.

Other data from the survey shows that 85% of Trump voters say their friends and neighbors knew how they voted. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Biden supporters said the same.

Among those whose family and friends did not know how they would vote, 48% said the reason is that voting is a private matter. Another 25% said it’s because they rarely discuss politics and 11% because they decided at the last minute. However, 8% said they kept their voting decision from family and friends because they were afraid how others might react.

Fear of how others react was more common among Trump supporters than Biden voters. It’s not a huge gap, but could suggest that Shy Trump voters accounted for understating the president’s support by about a single percentage point.

Biden supporters were far more likely than Trump voters to say they kept it secret because they rarely discussed politics.

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Methodology

29% Believe Economy Getting Better, 44% Say Worse

Posted on November 3, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters believe the economy is getting better these days while 44% believe it is getting worse. A Political IQ poll found that 21% think it’s staying about the same and 6% are not sure.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Republicans believe the economy is getting better while 65% of Democrats believe it is getting worse.

These results come from a survey conducted on the final weekend of Election 2020. It is possible that perceptions may change significantly as a result of the election.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 29-31, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 130 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

61% Believe America’s Best Days Still to Come

Posted on November 2, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

As voters come to the end of bitter presidential election campaign, 61% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe America’s best days are still to come. A Political IQ survey found that just 20% believe they have come and gone.

In September, 58% were upbeat about America’s future while 24% held the pessimistic view.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Trump voters are optimistic about the nation’s future, a view shared by 52% of Biden supporters.

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Methodology

43% See GOP As Party Committed to Individual Freedom; 41% Say It’s the Democrats

Posted on October 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters nationwide believe Republicans are the political party most committed to “Individual Freedom.” A Political IQ national survey found that 41% believe it’s the Democrats. The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, found that 10% don’t believe either party is committed to that ideal while 6% are not sure.

Not surprisingly, 86% of Republican voters see their party as committed to this ideal. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats say the same about their party. As for Independents, 35% pick the GOP, 30% say the Dems, and 23% neither.

Voters under the age of 35 are more likely to see the Democrats as the party of Individual Freedom. Voters over 55 take the opposite view. Those in between are evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,842 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 23-24, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 203 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

64% Say Protecting Individual Rights More Important Than Majority Rule

Posted on October 26, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters nationwide believe that it is more important for government to ensure that the individual rights of every citizen are protected rather than doing whatever the majority of voters want? A PoliticalIQ.com national survey found that 27% disagree and believe it is more important for the government to implement the will of the majority.

Voters under 35 are far more likely than older voters to prioritize majority rule. Among these younger voters, 39% take that approach. However, solid majorities of older voters see protecting individual rights as more important.

While there is a noticeable generation gap, there is little difference in views across racial lines. Sixty-five percent (65%) of White voters see protecting rights as the higher priority. So do 65% of Black voters and 63% of Hispanic voters.

This is also no evidence of a partisan divide on this question.

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Methodology

Pessimism Growing: 56% of Voters Believe Worst of Pandemic Still to Come

Posted on October 21, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

For the third straight week, more than half the nation’s voters believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come. Fifty-six percent (56%) now hold that view, up four points from a week ago.

A Political IQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen also found that just 22% of Registered Voters now believe the worst is behind us. That’s down five points from a week ago and down seven from the peak optimism measured in early September.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of men believe the worst is behind us. So do 17% of women.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Republicans now believe the worst is behind us. However, 74% of Democrats and 58% of independents believe the worst is still to come.

The table below highlights selected results showing trends over the past few months.

	Worst of Pandemic is Behind Us	Worst of Pandemic is Still to Come
Oct. 8-10	27%	52%
Oct. 1-3	24%	55%
Sept. 3-5	29%	49%
Aug. 13-15	20%	59%
July 23-25	15%	63%
June 4-6	29%	42%
April 9-11	16%	60%

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Methodology

The survey of 1,500 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 15-17, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 102 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Election Polls 2020

Posted on October 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Scott Rasmussen’s final national poll, conducted October 29-31, 2020, shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading by seven points–51% to 44%. The race has been remarkably consistent. Biden has been at 51% in five consecutive weekly polls. President Trump has trailed by either seven or eight points each week. These national polls were conducted for JustTheNews.com.

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Scott conducted just two Congressional District surveys during the election season. In Utah-4, his poll for the Deseret News showed Republican Burgess Owens with a one-point lead over incumbent Democrat Ben McAdams. In the race for Montana’s at-large seat, the was even.

Final presidential results for state polling conducted by Scott Rasmussen are summarized below:

State	Biden	Trump	Margin	Survey Dates
Florida	51	47	B+4	Oct 28-30
Michigan	51	44	B+7	Oct 27-29
Pennsylvania	51	45	B+6	Oct 25-27
North Carolina	48	47	B+1	Oct 24-26
Texas	46	50	T+4	Oct 27-28
Wisconsin	50	44	B+6	Oct 14-20
Montana	46	50	T+4	Oct 15-18
Iowa	47	47	Even	Oct 15-21
Arizona	47	46	B+1	Oct 14-19
Colorado	51	43	B+8	Oct 9-15
Utah	38	50	T+12	Oct 12-17

As noted in an analysis for PoliticalIQ.com, the numbers look good for Joe Biden.

Final Senate results from Scott Rasmussen polling are summarized here

	D	R	Spread	Dates
Michigan	50	41	D+9	Oct 27-29
Texas	42	48	R+8	Oct 27-28
North Carolina	49	42	D+7	Oct 24-26
Iowa	46	43	D+3	Oct 15-21
Arizona	46	39	D+7	Oct 14-19
Colorado	51	42	D+9	Oct 9-15
Montana	47	49	R+2	Oct 15-18

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Senate polls conducted by Scott Rasmussen can be found at PoliticalIQ.com.

44% of Voters Think Biden Will Win, 43% Say Trump

Posted on October 15, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-four percent (44%) of Likely Voters nationwide believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election. A Political IQ national survey found that 43% believe President Trump will be re-elected.

Supporters of each candidate are very confident. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Trump voters believe he will win. Eighty percent (80%) of Biden supporters believe their candidate will emerge victorious.

Those numbers reflect little change since the summer. In July, 91% of Trump supporters expected victory along with 80% of Biden supporters.

Polling both by Scott Rasmussen and all polling averages show Biden with a lead nationally and in key states. The fact that many Trump supporters still expect victory may result from several factors. One is the believe that the polls are simply wrong (or even fake). For many, that’s the key lesson from 2016. However, the polls weren’t as bad as the legend that has grown up around that election.

Another reason for confidence among Trump supporters may be a belief in a strong comeback or a strong Republican turnout. Political IQ polls conducted by Scott Rasmussen have shown the president trailing narrowly in Florida and North Carolina. However, in both cases, the Strong Republican turnout model shows the president ahead. In Pennsylvania, the president pulls to within two points with a Strong Republican turnout. That’s close enough to be competitive. However, President Trump would likely have to win all three to be re-elected.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,240 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 8-10, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 198 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

29% Believe Economy Getting Better, 45% Say Worse

Posted on October 14, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Political IQ national poll found that 29% of voters nationwide believe the economy is getting better while 45% say it is getting worse. The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 22% believe it is staying about the same and 4% are not sure.

Perceptions about the overall economy are typically a lagging indicator of economic performance. It is not unusual for many voters to believe the country remains in a recession for years after the recession officially ended.

However, perceptions of personal finances are often more responsive to changing dynamics. The latest poll shows that 27% of voters believe their own personal finances are getting better while 25% take the opposite view.

Upper income Americans are more positive than lower income Americans about the economic trends.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,457 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 8-10, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 198 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.6 percentage points.

52% Believe Worst of Pandemic Still to Come

Posted on October 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come. That’s down three points from a week ago but up four from two weeks ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 27% believe the worst is behind us and 21% are not sure.

Those results suggest that there was an increase in pessimism following news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. The pessimism has eased slightly since his recovery, but is still higher than before the president’s diagnosis.

Prior to the president testing positive, our weekly testing found that optimism had been growing steadily for a couple of months.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of men believe the worst is behind us. So do 20% of women.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Republicans now believe the worst is behind us. However, 70% of Democrats and 53% of independents believe the worst is still to come.

The table below highlights selected results showing trends over the past few months.

	Worst of Pandemic is Behind Us	Worst of Pandemic is Still to Come
Oct. 1-3	24%	55%
Sept. 3-5	29%	49%
Aug. 13-15	20%	59%
July 23-25	15%	63%
June 4-6	29%	42%
April 9-11	16%	60%

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Methodology

The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 2.6 percentage points.

30% See Obamacare as Top Issue Before Supreme Court; 17% Say Abortion

Posted on October 6, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty percent (30%) of voters nationwide say Obamacare is the top issue before the Supreme Court at this time. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 17% named abortion as the top issue while 13% said 2nd Amendment issues. Additionally, 9% see issues surrounding the Administrative State as most important while 8% say Religious Liberty.

Seventeen percent (17%) say some other issue was tops and 6% are not sure.

Abortion is viewed as most important by 20% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. When viewing results by party, that’s the only common ground. Among Independent voters, 13% see abortion as the top issue before the Court.

Among Democrats, 46% see Obamacare as the top issue. Just 26% of Independents agree along with 15% of Republicans.

For GOP voters, 2nd Amendment issues and Abortion top the list.

While Supreme Court issues are seen as important, there is often a misunderstanding about the issues themselves. Polling released earlier showed that most voters don’t know what would happen if Roe v. Wade is overturned.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 1-3, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 121 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Pessimism About Pandemic Grows–55% Believe Worst is Still to Come

Posted on October 5, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come. That’s an increase of seven points from a week ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 24% believe the worst is behind us and 21% are not sure.

Those results suggest an increase in pessimism following news that President Trump tested positive for COVID. The vast majority of interviews in the latest survey were conducted following release of that information.

We have been tracking this question weekly for several months. During August, optimism was growing on this question. By early September, the number saying the worst was still to come had fallen below the 50% mark and it remained there until this week.

Forty-four percent (44%) of Republicans now believe the worst is behind us. However, 72% of Democrats and 57% of Independents believe the worst is still to come.

The table below highlights selected results showing trends over the past few months.

Behind Still to Come

Oct 1-3 24% 55%

Sept 3-5 29% 49%

Aug 13-15 20% 59%

July 23-25 15% 63%

June 4-6 29% 42%

April 9-11 16% 60%

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Methodology

56% Don’t Know What Overturning Roe v. Wade Would Mean

Posted on October 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Most Registered Voters (56%) don’t know what would happen if the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 30% who mistakenly believe that abortion would be outlawed in the United States and 26% who are simply not sure.

Forty-four percent (44%) recognize that overturning Roe v. Wade would allow every state to establish its own laws governing abortion.

Misunderstanding on the issue is found all across the political spectrum. It is found among 57% of Independent voters, 56% of Democrats, and 54% of Republicans.

One of the great challenges in 21st century politics is recognizing that terms used in the political dialogue often are not perceived in the same way by voters.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen September 26, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

10% Know Someone Who Was Injured or Lost Property in Recent Riots

Posted on September 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Ten percent (10%) of voters have close friends or relatives who were injured or had their property destroyed in recent riots. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 85% do not and 5% are not sure.

Among voters under 35, 19% know someone who has been hurt by the riots. Among older voters (55+), just 4% say the same.

The survey also found that 45% of voters are worried are violent protests and riots will come to their community.

That total includes 54% of Republicans, 42% of Independent voters, and 39% of Democrats.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 24-26, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 159 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

53% Disagree With Grand Jury Ruling in Breonna Taylor Case

Posted on September 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Most voters (53%) following the news about Breonna Taylor case disagree with the grand jury decision announced last week. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% agree with the decision and 9% are not sure.

Those totals include 21% who Strongly Agree with the decision and 41% who Strongly Disagree.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Black voters disagree as do 59% of Hispanic voters. However, White Voters are more evenly divided.

The survey also found that two-thirds of voters (66%) were following the news at least somewhat closely. That includes 29% following the story Very Closely.

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Methodology

34% Recognize Sandra Day O’Connor As First Woman on Supreme Court

Posted on September 28, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a list of four politically prominent women, 34% recognize that Sandra Day O’Connor was the first woman to serve on the United States Supreme Court. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% mistakenly believe that Ruth Bader Ginsburg was the first woman on the Court. Three percent (3%) believe that honor was earned by current Justice Sonia Sotomayor and 3% named Margaret Chase Smith. Smith never served on the Supreme Court, but was the first woman to serve in both the House of Representatives and the United States Senate.

Even when presented with a list of names, 23% were not able to identify the name of the first female Supreme Court Justice.

Among voters 55 and older, a plurality– but not a majority– correctly identified O’Connor. A plurality of younger voters thought it was Ginsuburg. A poll conducted the day after Ginsburg’s passing showed that she was viewed favorably by 64% of voters.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters identified Ronald Reagan as the first president to appoint a woman to the Court. A slightly larger number–35%– did not know.

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Methodology

When Law & Faith Conflict, Voters Evenly Divided on Which to Follow

Posted on September 27, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sometimes there is a conflict between government laws and the teachings of a faith or religion. For most voters, this creates some tension since faith is an important part of their daily life.

If they felt a government law forced them to violate the teachings and values of their faith, 39% of voters would be likely to follow the teachings of their faith. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 41% would follow the law and 19% are not sure. The number who say they would follow the law includes 15% who say that faith or religion is not at all important to them.

White voters are evenly divided on the subject. By a 45% to 34% margin, Black voters would follow their faith.

Republicans would be more likely to follow their faith while Democrats would be more likely to follow the law. Independent voters are evenly divided.

As on many issues, there is an interesting divide between the views of White and Black Democrats. By a 56% to 25% margin, White Democrats would follow the law. By a 42% to 34% margin, Black Democrats would follow their faith.

This survey was conducted immediately following the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

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Methodology

45% Want Lockdown Restrictions Eased, 36% Want Stricter Regulations Re-imposed

Posted on September 26, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of Registered Voters believe that the government should be easing lockdown restrictions in the area where they live. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 36% take the opposite view and believe that stricter rules should be re-imposed. Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure.

Other recent data showed that 37% wear masks at all times around other people. However, 63% take a more relaxed approach. Taken together, these results suggest that a significant minority of just under 40% remains committed to a strict lockdown strategy for dealing with the pandemic. However, a larger number of voters are looking to move beyond the lockdowns.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans want lockdown restrictions eased while 54% of Democrats want to see stricter regulations. Independent voters are evenly divided.

One interesting geographic note is that Red State voters are evenly divided. Those are states that Donald Trump won by at least four points in 2016. However, in Blue States–those that Hillary Clinton won by at least four points, a solid plurality (47%) favor easing restrictions. While those results may seem counter-intuitive, they may reflect that states led by Republican Governors have already eased restrictions more than states led by Democratic Governors. This may be a sign that Blue State voters are losing patience with lockdown measures.

In the Purple States–the competitive states that may decide the winner of Election 2020–49% want to see restrictions eased while 36% found the opposite view.

Among Likely Voters nationwide, support for easing restrictions is a bit higher: 49% support the more relaxed approach while 36% want to see stricter measures put in place.

The survey also found that 27% of Registered Voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. However, 48% believe the worst is still to come. That’s consistent with other recent surveys and reflects a decline in pessimism since the summer.

Not surprisingly, those who believe the worst is behind us overwhelmingly favor easing lockdown restrictions. Among those who believe the worst is still to come, 63% want stricter lockdowns. However, even among these more pessimistic voters, 25% believe it’s time to ease restrictions in their area.

As for those who aren’t sure about whether the worst is behind us, 48% want to see restrictions eased. Just 19% want stricter lockdowns.

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Methodology

28% Believe Today’s Children Will Be Better Off Than Their Parents, 29% Think The Opposite

Posted on September 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters believe children born these days will have a better life than their parents. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 29% believe these children will have a worse life, and 24% think the quality of life will be about the same. Nineteen percent (19%) aren’t sure.

Thirty-five percent (35%) of men believe today’s children will live better than their parents. Just 25% of male voters think today’s children will be worse off.

Women, by a 32% to 22% margin, take the opposite view and are more likely to think today’s children will be worse off than their parents.

Republicans and conservatives are a bit more optimistic than Democrats and liberals. Suburban voters are a bit more pessimistic than urban or rural voters. Older voters are more pessimistic while younger voters more optimistic.

The survey question did not ask how respondents would define a better life.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 17-19, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 161 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

58% Believe America’s Best Days Are Still to Come

Posted on September 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters nationwide believe that America’s Best Days are still to come. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 22% are more pessimistic, believing that those days have come and gone.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of White voters believe our best days are still in the future. So do 58% of Hispanic voters and 54% of black voters.

In fact, with just a single exception, a majority of every measured demographic group shares this upbeat assessment. The one exception is Independent voters. However, even among these voters, 49% are optimistic while just 24% believe the nation’s best days were in the past.

This optimism about the future provides an interesting contrast with other data from the same survey. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters believe they are better off than four years ago, but just 35% believe the country is better off.

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Methodology

49% Better Off Than Four Years Ago, 42% Disagree

Posted on September 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

As Election 2020 approaches, 49% of the nation’s Registered Voters are better off than they were four years ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 42% are not while 9% are not sure.

Men, by a 53% to 38% margin, say they are better off. Women are evenly divided.

Most Republicans (74%) say they are better off while most Democrats (62%) say they are not. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Partially echoing this partisan result, Red State voters say they are better off by a 55% to 37% margin. Blue State voters are evenly divided, as are those in Purple States.

Red States are defined as those President Trump won by at least four points in 2016. Blue States are those Hillary Clinton won by at least four points. Purple States are those whose results were closer.

While a plurality of voters believe they are personally better off, just 35% believe the country is better off than it was four years ago. Most voters (56%) disagree and say it is not better off. In Blue States, 60% say the country is not better off. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters in Purple states agree with that negative assessment. So do 51% of Red States voters.

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Methodology

53% Rate Supreme Court Good or Excellent; 8% Say Poor

Posted on September 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters nationwide rate the performance of the U.S. Supreme Court as Good or Excellent. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 8% say poor. In between are 32% who say the Court’s performance has been just fair.

Support is found in all segments of the nation. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republicans give the Court positive reviews as do 54% of Democrats. Among other voters, 43% share that view.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of the most conservative voters give thumbs up for the Court. So do 57% of the most liberal voters.

Ideologically, 33% believe the Court’s balance is about right while 30% say too conservative and 20% too liberal.

In its treatment of protestors who commit violent acts, 44% believe the courts and legal system have been too lenient while 18% say too harsh.

Results for the full sample have a Margin of Error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

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Methodology

The survey of 854 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen September 19, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. These voters were selected from a larger sample of 1,100 Registered Voters. Likely Voters were defined as those who say they are “Definitely going to vote” or “Very Likely to Vote” and who know how they will vote. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

64% Have Favorable Opinion of Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Posted on September 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

In a survey conducted the day after her passing, 64% of Likely Voters said they had a favorable opinion of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The Scott Rasmussen survey found just 16% with an unfavorable view while 20% are not sure.

These results are broadly consistent with earlier surveys in recent years. Justice Ginsburg was the most recognized name of all Supreme Court Justices, often the only name recognized by more than half the nation’s voters.

The survey also found that 52% of Likely Voters believe the Senate should wait to confirm Ginsburg’s replacement until after the presidential election. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree and believe the new Justice should be confirmed as soon as possible. Not surprisingly, there is a substantial partisan divide on this question.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans believe the new Justice should be confirmed as soon as possible.
Eighty percent (80%) of Democrats believe confirmation should wait until after the election.
Independent voters were more evenly divided. Fifty-one percent (51%) agree with the Democrats and 40% with the Republicans.

Additionally, 59% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe Joe Biden should let voters know who he would nominate if elected. Just 21% disagree while 20% are not sure.

The partisan divide on this is interesting. The Trump campaign has been pushing Biden to release a list of potential nominees. However, Democratic voters are even more likely than Republican voters to think he should do so. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats want their party’s nominee to announce who he would nominate for the Court. That view is shared by 57% of Independent voters and 52% of Republicans.

Other data from the survey shows that 53% of voters rate the Supreme Court’s performance as good or excellent.

Results for the full sample have a Margin of Error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

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Methodology

Generic Ballot: Democrats 46% Republicans 41%

Posted on September 18, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

The latest Scott Rasmussen Generic Ballot poll shows Democrats with a 5-point advantage. The survey of 941 Likely Voters found that 46% would vote for the Democrat from their District while 41% would opt for the Republican. Two percent (2%) say they’ll vote for someone else and 11% are not sure.

Republicans have a ten-point lead among White voters, but Democrats have wide margins among other voters. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Black voters prefer the Democrat. So do 67% of Hispanic voters.

Republicans have a huge lead in Rural areas and Democrats have a similar lead among Urban voters. In the suburbs, its 46% for the Democrats and 40% for Republicans.

The most recent national poll of the presidential race conducted by Scott Rasmussen shows Joe Biden with a 5-percentage point lead (48% to 43%). New results are released each Monday at JustTheNews.com.

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Methodology

The survey of 941 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 10-12, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. These voters were selected from a larger sample of 1,200 Registered Voters. Likely Voters were defined as those who say they are “Definitely going to vote” or “Very Likely to Vote” and who know how they will vote. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 166 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

45% Want More Regulation of Large Corporations, 37% Want Less

Posted on September 18, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

In terms of what’s best for the economy, 45% of voters nationwide prefer more government regulation establishing rules for large corporations. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 37% disagree. They would rather see less government regulation to allow for more private sector innovation.

Those who live in urban areas favor more government regulation by a wide margin–53% to 29%. Those who live in suburban and rural areas are more evenly divided.

Most voters under 45 favor increased regulation while older voters tend to see more value in allowing innovation.

Not surprisingly, there is a huge partisan divide. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Democrats like the idea of more regulation while 58% of Republicans take the opposite view. Independent voters are fairly evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 10-12, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 166 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

76% of Voters Consider 2020 Election Very Important

Posted on September 15, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

In terms of its impact on their own lives, 76% of Registered Voters nationwide believe Election 2020 is “Very Important.” A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 16% say it’s somewhat important while 8% consider it not important or are not sure.

Those who support major party presidential candidates are far more likely than others to consider the election Very Important. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Biden supporters consider it that important. So do 84% of Trump supporters.

As for those considering other candidates, just 62% believe the election is Very Important. Among those unlikely to vote, that figure falls to 32%.

Among those unlikely to vote, 38% either consider the election to either be unimportant (24%) or are not sure if it will have an impact on their lives (14%).

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Methodology

30% Favor Socialism, But Not The Way It Is Historically Understood

Posted on September 14, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty percent (30%) of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Socialism. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 47% hold an unfavorable view and 23% are not sure.

Those figures include 9% with a Very Favorable opinion of Socialism and 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

However, most who say they like Socialism do not think of the term as it has been historically understood.

Among those with a favorable opinion of the term, just 37% believe it “is a system with higher taxes and extensive control of the economy by a centralized government.”

Only 10% of voters have a favorable opinion of Socialism AND view it as a centralized economic system.

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Methodology

41% Prefer Candidate Supporting Black Lives Matter, 40% Prefer Blue Lives Matter

Posted on September 11, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Given a choice between two candidates, 41% of voters prefer a candidate who supports Black Lives Matter. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% prefer a candidate who supports Blue Lives Matter. Nineteen percent (19%) are not sure.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Black voters favor the Black Lives Matter candidate. By a 53% to 29% margin, so do Hispanic voters. However, White voters, by a 47% to 32% margin, take the opposite view and prefer a Blue Lives Matter candidate.

Most voters with a college degree prefer Black Lives Matter. Those without a degree, favor Blue Lives Matter by a 45% to 34% margin.

Men lean a bit in favor of Blue Lives Matter while women take the opposite view.

Suburban voters are evenly divided.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 3-5, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 186 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

29% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us, Highest Yet; Red/Blue State Divide

Posted on September 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Registered Voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. matches the highest level yet measured in polls by Scott Rasmussen this year. The number holding that optimistic view has nearly doubled from the summer low recorded in July.

The number who believe the worst is still to come is 49%. It’s the first time ever that number has remained below 50% in back-to-back weeks.

Among Likely Voters, 32% believe the worst is behind us while 48% take the opposite view.

However, there is a substantial gap between the views of Red and Blue state voters.

Blue States are far more pessimistic. In states where Democrats won by more than 4 points in 2016, 54% believe the worst is still to come while just 27% believe it is behind us.

In Red States, voters are evenly divided—38% say it’s behind us while 43% believe the worst is still to come.

In the ten purple states—decided by less four points or less in 2016—32% believe the worst is behind us while 45% believe it is still to come.

This is the first time we have measured the views of Likely Voters, but the trend lines among Registered Voters show a steadily declining level of pessimism.

The number who believe the worst is behind us is up two points from a week ago, up three from two weeks ago, and up nine from three weeks ago. It has nearly doubled from the 15% recorded in July.

Scott Rasmussen has been tracking this question on a weekly basis and will continue to do so. Results in this feature are based upon a survey of 1,200 Registered Voters conducted September 3-5, 2020. The sample included 942 Likely Voters.

Other data from last week’s survey found that 59% of voters believe it’s time to move forward by adapting to the ongoing nature of the pandemic. Thirty-one percent (31%) take the opposite view and believe it is better for America to lockdown again until the pandemic is completely behind us.

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Methodology

The sample included 942 Likely Voters were defined as those who say they are “Definitely going to vote” or “Very Likely to Vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 35% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 26% Independent.

36% of Voters Say They’re Politically Conservative, 27% Say Liberal

Posted on September 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters nationwide consider themselves to be politically conservative while 27% say they’re liberal. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 31% view themselves as moderate.

Those totals include 18% who are Very Conservative and 11% who are Very Liberal.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans are conservative while 55% of Democrats are liberal. Among Independent voters, 46% are moderate and the rest are evenly divided.

In the suburbs, 36% are conservative, 30% moderate, and 30% liberal.

In urban areas, the numbers are 34% liberal, 28% moderate, and 30% conservative.

In rural America, 40% are conservative, 37% moderate, and 13% liberal.

Data released earlier showed that 65% of voters view Donald Trump as conservative while 55% see Joe Biden as liberal.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 27-29, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 188 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

55% See Biden As Politically Liberal; 65% Say Trump’s Conservative

Posted on September 4, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide see Joe Biden as politically liberal while 20% say he’s a moderate. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 13% consider the former Vice President to be politically conservative while another 13% are not sure.

As for President Trump, 65% view him as conservative, 11% say moderate, 7% liberal, and 16% are not sure.

Republican voters draw clearer ideological contrasts than other voters. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans see Trump as a conservative while 74% see Biden as a liberal. Among Democrats, 60% see Trump as conservative and 46% view Biden as liberal.

When it comes to the Vice Presidential running mates, the numbers for Senator Kamala Harris is viewed in almost identical ideological terms as Biden. That’s not surprising, especially given that all many voters know about Harris is that Biden selected her for the ticket. It is possible, though far from certain, that voters may begin to see Harris in a different ideological light between now and November.

On the other hand, Vice President Mike Pence is seen as a bit more conservative than President Trump. Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters see Pence as Very Conservative. Just 40% say the same about Trump. The perspective that Pence is more conservative than Trump is shared by Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.

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Methodology

15% Discussed Election With Non-Family Member Every Day Last Week

Posted on September 3, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifteen percent (15%) of voters nationwide discussed the presidential election with someone outside their family last week. At the other extreme, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% did not discuss the election at all outside their family.

Broadening the categories a bit shows that 36% discussed the election outside their family either most days or every day. An identical number–36%– had such a discussion “maybe once” or not at all. In between are 26% who discussed the election a couple of times.

On “most days”, 40% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats discussed the election with people outside their family. Just 29% of Independent voters did the same.

Discussions were more common within the confines of the family. Half of all voters (49%) discussed the election with their immediate family most days or every day.

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Methodology

27% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us; 48% Believe Worst Still to Come

Posted on September 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Americans are growing a bit less pessimistic about the pandemic.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of voters nationwide believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 48% disagree and believe the worst is still to come.

The number who believe the worst is still to come is down seven points from a week ago and down eleven points from two weeks ago. This marks only the second time–and the first since June–that fewer that half the nation’s voters believed the worst was still to come.

The 27% who believe that the worst is behind us is up a point from last week, up seven points from two weeks ago, and up 12 points since July.

Earlier this year, from April thru June, confidence about getting the pandemic behind us grew steadily. But, in July that confidence collapsed before starting to grow again in August. If confidence continues to grow, it would be a significant benefit to President Trump’s hopes of re-election.

Republicans, by a 50% to 26% margin, believe the worst is behind us. Democrats reject that notion by a 67% to 10% margin. Among Independent voters, 24% believe the worst has come and gone while 48% take the opposite view.

Scott Rasmussen has been tracking this question on a weekly basis and will continue to do so. Results in this feature are based upon a survey of 1,200 Registered Voters conducted August 27-29, 2020.

Other data from the survey found that 59% of voters believe it’s time to move forward by adapting to the ongoing nature of the pandemic. Thirty-one percent (31%) take the opposite view and believe it is better for America to lockdown again until the pandemic is completely behind us.

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Methodology

59% Believe It’s Time to Adapt and Move Forward; 31% Prefer Lockdowns Until Pandemic is Gone

Posted on September 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters nationwide believe it’s time to move forward by adapting to the ongoing nature of the pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that 31% take the opposite view and believe it is better for America to lockdown again until the pandemic is completely behind us.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans believe it is time to adapt and move forward. So do 54% of Independent voters.

Democrats, however, are evenly divided. Forty-six percent (46%) of those in Joe Biden’s party believe more lockdowns are needed while 44% prefer moving forward by adapting to the ongoing nature of the pandemic.

By a 63% to 27% margin, White voters believe it is time to move forward. Other voters are more evenly divided.

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Methodology

18% Don’t Know How to Express Their Political Beliefs

Posted on August 31, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to politics, 18% of voters know what they believe are not sure what to say or how to say it. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% of women hold that view along with 16% of men.

The feeling of not knowing how to express what they believe is a bit less common among urban voters.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of white voters struggle with knowing how to say what they believe. So do 12% of Black and 8% of Hispanic voters.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 20-22, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 142 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

48% Believe More Freedom Will Bring People Together; 34% Prefer More Government Rules on Social Interaction

Posted on August 28, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

In terms of bringing people together, 48% of voters nationwide believe the better policy approach is giving more individual freedom for people to establish their own guidelines for social interaction. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 34% disagree and believe it would be better to have more government involvement to establish fair rules and guidelines for social interaction.

Other data from the survey showed that 93% believe it is important for our leaders to focus on things that bring people together. Additionally, 73% believe that America’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance are a good foundation for bringing people together and unifying the nation.

On the policy side, there is a significant generation gap. By a 52% to 29% margin, older voters (45+) believe allowing more freedom is the way to bring people together. Voters under 45 are evenly divided–42% say more freedom and 40% more government rules.

Republicans strongly prefer more freedom as the answer. Independent voters, by a 47% to 29% margin, agree.

However, a narrow plurality of Democrats take the opposite view. Forty-four percent (44%) of those in Joe Biden’s party think more government rules governing social interactions are needed. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Democrats prefer more freedom.

There is an interesting racial divide among Democrats. By a 47% to 36% margin, Black Democrats think more freedom is the answer. However, by a 46% to 35% margin, other Democrats believe more rules are the better approach.

Among all voters, there is virtually no racial divide on this question.

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Methodology

43% Have Experienced Financial Problems Due to Pandemic

Posted on August 25, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say the Coronavirus pandemic has caused serious financial problems for them or a member of their immediate family. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 60% of Hispanic voters, 53% of Black voters, and 37% of White voters.

The financial hardships have impacted more than twice as many people as the health problems. Twenty percent (20%) say the Coronavirus has caused serious health issues for them or a member of their immediate family.

Interestingly, despite the fact that the virus represents a far greater risk to older Americans, young people are far more likely to report a serious health impact. Among senior citizens, just 10% say the pandemic has caused a serious health issue for their family. Among voters under 45, that figure is nearly three times as high at 27%.

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Methodology

45% Think Biden Will Win in November, 40% Say Trump

Posted on August 25, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Regardless of who they want to win in November, 45% of Registered Voters nationwide believes that Democrat Joe Biden will emerge victorious. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and believe Republican Donald Trump will be the victor. Two percent (2%) think someone else will win it all while 12% are not sure.

The survey was conducted after the Democratic National Convention and before the Republican National Convention.

Looking back, responses have been trending in Biden’s direction for some time. Last year, a majority of voters expected Trump to be re-elected. That was before the pandemic and the lockdowns. In late June, voters were evenly divided about who would win–42% picked Biden and 42% Trump.

Eight-out-of-ten Democrats expect Biden to win while eight-out-of-ten Republicans expect Trump to be re-elected. Among unaffiliated voters, 39% pick Biden and 35% Trump.

We will repeat the question next week to see if there is any impact from the GOP convention.

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Methodology

26% Believe Worst of the Pandemic Behind Us

Posted on August 24, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-six percent of voters (26%)believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 55% disagree and believe the worst is still to come.

While the overall numbers reflect ongoing concern, the numbers reflect a recent burst in confidence. The number believing the worst is behind us is up six points from a week ago and 11 points since July.

Perceptions of the pandemic have sent the nation an emotional roller-coaster. In early April, as the lockdowns were getting started, just 16% thought the worst was behind us, but confidence was growing rapidly. By the end of that month, 23% thought we had gotten through the toughest moments. In May, confidence slipped back to 17% before soaring to 29% in June. That was the highest level of confidence yet measured. However, just a month later, confidence that the worst was behind us fell back to 15% in July.

For now, the roller-coaster appears headed back up again. It will be interesting to see if confidence keeps growing in the weeks to come. If it does, that would be a significant benefit to President Trump’s hopes of re-election.

As always, Republicans are more upbeat about the pandemic than anyone else. Forty-five percent (45%) of GOP voters believe the worst is behind us. That optimism is shared by 23% of Independents and 11% of Democrats.

It is possible—probably likely—that perceptions of this question may have shifted over time. For some people the prospect that the worst is still ahead of us means we have to hunker down for a longer period of time. For others, it may mean that we need to find a way to adapt and go on living with a challenge that is going to be with us for a while.

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Methodology

America’s Founding Ideals Can Bring Americans Together

Posted on August 24, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When 2020 began, no one could have predicted the enormous changes that would sweep through our nation and the world. It’s hard to find new ways the world turned upside down impact of the coronavirus pandemic, lockdowns, and the resulting economic disruption. As if that wasn’t enough, the nation also had to deal with the killing of George Floyd, peaceful protests against racial injustice, and riots plaguing American cities.

These events have made the presidential election campaign even more polarizing than usual. It sometimes seems as if there’s nothing Americans can agree upon.

However, a survey I conducted this past weekend showed that there is something 93% of American voters can agree upon—they believe it is important for our leaders to focus on things that bring people together. That total includes 71% who say it’s Very Important.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Democrats believe it’s important to focus on bringing people together. So do 92% of Republicans and 90% of Independent voters.

Of course, in the political world, when partisan activists say they want unity, what they really want is for their opponents to agree with them. However, among voters throughout the nation, there’s also strong agreement on a starting point for creating that unity. Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters believe that America’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance are a good foundation for bringing people together and unifying the nation. Just 12% disagree.

As you would expect with numbers like that, support for the founding ideals is found in all segments of our society. Among voters 55 and older, more than eight-out-of-ten see those ideals as a good foundation. So do two-thirds of younger voters. The idea that these ideals represent a path to unity is strongly supported by White and non-White voters; Suburban, Urban, and Rural Voters; conservatives, moderates, and liberals; college graduates and those without a degree.

Obviously, support for the founding ideals does not mean we have to agree on everything. There’s plenty of room for disagreement between candidates, parties, and voters. In fact, my weekend survey found that there is plenty of disagreement on a number of questions—including a question about the best approach to bringing people together.

When asked which would do more to bring people together, 48% said giving people more individual freedom to establish their own guidelines for social interaction. That’s a fairly traditional American answer. However, 34% took the opposite view and said a better approach to bringing people together would be more government involvement to establish fair rules and guidelines for social interaction.

This question revealed some stark divides in our society. Most voters over 45 said more freedom would be the best way to bring people together. Younger voters were evenly divided.

Republicans overwhelmingly believe more freedom is the better approach and, by a 47% to 29% margin, Independents agree. However, a narrow plurality of Democrats leans in the opposite direction. By a 44% to 38% margin, they believe giving government more power to establish fair rules would bring people together.

I’m sure there are some conservatives who will say that Democrats can’t possibly believe in freedom if they believe giving government more power will bring people together. And I’m also sure there are some liberals who will say that Republicans can’t possibly believe in equality if they don’t want to establish a fair set of rules.

But before we get too caught up in the things we disagree about, let’s first pause to celebrate the things we agree upon. America’s founding ideals—freedom, equality, and self-governance—are worth striving for and celebrating. They are the heritage and purpose we share as a nation. Celebrating those ideals and our commitment to them is the only way to bring Americans together.

56% More Worried About Pandemic Health Threat Rather than Economic Threat

Posted on August 19, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters are more worried about the Health Threat from the coronavirus pandemic rather than the economic threat. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 39% are more worried about the economic threat.

These figures highlight a growing level of concern about the health threat from the pandemic.

The number worried most about the health threat has risen 13 points since mid-June and three points since the end of last month. . The number more concerned about the economy has fallen a dozen points since mid-June and one point since the end of last month.

There remains a huge partisan gap on the issue. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats and 55% of Independents are most concerned about the health threat. However, 62% of Republicans take the opposite view and worry more about the economy.

In mid-June, members of all parties were relatively less concerned about the health threat than they are today.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 13-15, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 181 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

25% Believe Obamacare Improved Healthcare System

Posted on August 18, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-five percent (25%) of voters believe the U.S. healthcare system was broken before Obamacare and is working much better today. However, a Texas Public Policy Foundation poll found that 21% take the opposite view. They believe our health care system was working fine before it was broken by Obamacare.

However, a solid plurality–39%–don’t see much change in either direction. They believe our health care system was broken before Obamacare was passed and it is still broken today. Fourteen percent (14%) of voters are not sure.

Democrats are fairly evenly divided between thinking things are better now and that little has changed. Republicans are fairly evenly divided between thinking things are worse now and that little has changed. A plurality of Independent voters believe the system was broken before Obamacare and remains broken today.

Younger voters are somewhat more likely than their elders to believe little has changed.

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Methodology

53% Have Some Confidence in Public Health Officials

Posted on August 18, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters nationwide are at least Somewhat Confident that that public health officials really understand the coronavirus and what policies are needed to overcome it. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 46% lack confidence in the officials.

Those figures reflect growing confidence in public health officials over the past couple of months. In June, just 45% had even a modest level of confidence in the public health officials. The eight-point improvement came exclusively from Democrats and Independent voters.

In June, 49% of Republican voters expressed confidence in the public health officials. That figure is unchanged in the latest survey.
Confidence among Democrats increased twelve points, from 49% in June to 61% today.
Among Independents, there was a thirteen point gain, from 35% in June to 48% today.

Overall, the current numbers show that 16% of voters are Very Confident in the public health officials while 15% are Not at All confident.

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Methodology

40 Years Since the Last Meaningful Convention

Posted on August 17, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

This week, political junkies and activists will obsess over every detail of the Democratic National Convention. Next week, they’ll do the same about the Republican gathering. They’ll rate the speeches, watch for mistakes by the other team, and try to gauge the impact on the fall campaign. It’s likely that some campaign commercials will be cut from the gatherings and some new “rising stars” will be “discovered.”

But, barring any major gaffes, the events will have no impact on the election. That’s because most voters are not interested and will not be tuning in. Many may be only vaguely aware that the events are even taking place.

It used to be different. In the 1960s and ‘70s, there were only three television networks and they all covered the conventions as a big deal. Anybody turning on the TV would have noticed. In today’s world, consumers have a virtually unlimited supply of more appealing options on their screens and phones.

There’s more to the story, though, than that people have more options to watch. Conventions used to matter, they used to actually select presidential nominees. But that’s not the case anymore. It hasn’t been for a long, long time.

The last meaningful convention moment was 40 years ago. In 1980, Senator Ted Kennedy was challenging incumbent President Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination. Carter had won enough delegates to secure the nomination, but Kennedy was convinced that—in their hearts–most delegates preferred him. So, his team challenged the convention rules and called for a vote that would free all the delegates to vote their conscience.

Eventually, Carter’s team carried the day and the president was formally nominated. He went on to lose the general election to Ronald Reagan.

That 1980 convention capped a decade of change in the way we nominate our presidents, a change that made the conventions functionally irrelevant. We didn’t know it at the time, but the new nomination process would make conventions irrelevant.

From early in the 19^th century until 1968, few delegates were selected in primaries and pledged to a specific candidate. Party officials typically served as delegates and openly haggled about the nominee. In 1968, only 13 states held primaries to select delegates.

Eugene McCarthy, running on an anti-War platform won most of the early primaries. Bobby Kennedy entered the race late and became a leading contender. However, he was assassinated just hours after winning the California primary.

Eventually, Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the nomination even though he had not entered a single primary. Everything about the convention that year was a disaster for the party. Several states sent competing slates of delegates. There were fights about the Vietnam War and Civil Rights issues. There were also riots in the streets playing out on television sets all across America.

After Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon, the Democrats decided to change their nominating process. George McGovern was put in charge of a commission to recommend new rules. And, perhaps not coincidentally, he became the Democratic nominee four years later.

One unintended result of the reform was that primaries quickly became the norm with potential delegates pledged to a particular candidate. Nobody understood it at the time, but with primary voters selecting the nominee directly, there would no longer be a need for nominating conventions. For a while, they served as televised pageants (funded by the taxpayers). But even that role has faded into history.

This year, the conventions will simply be virtual events. Maybe they will bring about another change. It might be too much to hope for, but maybe the pandemic could finally bring an end to this archaic charade.

60% Say It’s Very Important to Limit Power of Big Corporations

Posted on July 30, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide say it’s Very Important to place limits on the power of big corporations. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 28% consider it Somewhat Important to do so.

The survey also found that 62% think it’s Very Important to place limits on the power of governments. And, 28% say that’s Somewhat Important.

Majorities of every measured demographic group consider both of these objectives to be Very Important.

53% More Worried About Pandemic Threat to Health Than U.S. Economy

Posted on July 28, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When asked about what worries them most about the coronavirus threat to our nation, 53% now express concern about the health threat while 40% are more worried about the threat to the U.S. economy.

These numbers reflect a significant change from mid-June when a Ballotpedia national survey found more concern about the economy.

Broadly speaking, optimism about recovering from the pandemic grew steadily from late March until mid-June. Since then, they have moved in the opposite direction.

In late March, just 38% were more worried about the economic threat while 53% expressed greater concern about the health threat.
By mid-June, however,three straight weeks of polling found more concern about the economic threat rather than the health threat.
Now, the numbers have returned to the levels first recorded in late March. Whatever bounce in optimism took place, it is gone.

Most Republicans (59%) are still more concerned about the economic threat. Most Democrats (69%) and Independents (54%) are primarily concerned with the health threat.

Other data from the survey shows that just 15% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. Sixty-three percent (63%) believe the worst is still to come. That also reflects growing pessimism since mid-June. The highest level of optimism measured found that 29% of voters believed that the worst was behind us while 42% thought the worst was still to come.

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Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any connection or relationship with Rasmussen Reports. Scott Rasmussen left that firm more than seven years ago and has had no involvement with it since then.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 23-25, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 161 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Biden 45% Trump 37% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 1%

Posted on July 27, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 45% to 37%. That’s little changed from a month ago.

The survey also found that 2% would vote for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and 1% for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. This is the first time they’ve been included in a Scott Rasmussen national poll.

Three percent (3%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 12% are not sure.

Biden leads by four points among private sector workers and 30% among government employees.

Among White voters, the president holds a narrow lead: 44% to 38%. However, he attracts support from only 8% of Black voters and 22% of Hispanic voters.

Many voters dismiss polls they don’t like because they are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

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Methodology

13% Believe More Freedom Leads to Less Equality

Posted on July 27, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirteen percent (13%) of voters nationwide believe that there is a conflict between two of America’s founding ideals. These voters believe that giving people more freedom will lead to less equality. A Scott Rasmussen survey found that a much larger number–42%–take the opposite view and believe increasing freedom will also increase equality.

Twenty-five percent (25%) believe that more freedom would have little impact on equality while 20% are not sure.

Most Black voters (51%) believe more freedom will lead to more equality. So do 41% of White voters and 35% of Hispanic voters

Men (49%) are more likely than women (36%) to believe more freedom means more equality.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of Republicans see a positive correlation between freedom and equality. That view is shared by 42% of Democrats and 37% of Independents.

As on many issues, there is a divide between the views of White and Black Democrats. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Black Democrats believe more freedom means more equality. Just 36% of White Democrats agree.

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Methodology

42% Believe Professional Sports Should Be Shut Down Until 2021

Posted on July 23, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

As Major League Baseball launches its truncated 2020 season, American voters are evenly divided as to whether they should be allowed to do so. A JustTheNews.com national survey found that 44% think they should be allowed to play while 42% believe professional sports should remain shut down until next year.

Most men (51%) favor a resumption of sports while a plurality of women (46%) are opposed.

More generally, attitudes towards the reopening of sports follow patterns similar to reopening other aspects of American society. Most Republicans (59%) like the idea while most Democrats (52%) are opposed. Independents are fairly evenly divided.

Older voters and White voters are more supportive of re-opening than younger voters and non-White voters.

27% View Economy, Health Care as Top Voting Issues

Posted on July 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of voters name the economy as the top voting issue in the upcoming presidential election. A JustTheNews.com survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that an identical number–27%– say health care is the top issue.

Those numbers reflect a growing concern about health care over the past month. In June, a Ballotpedia survey found that 30% named the economy as most important while just 17% said health care. That’s a 10 point gain in the importance of health care.

For Independent voters, health care is now the top issue. A month ago, they were more concerned about the economy.

Currently, 12% say Law and Order is the top issue, little changed from a month ago.

Eleven percent (11%) now see Civil Rights as the top issue, down five points from last month.

Overall, in naming the top issue, voters are evenly divided between issues that generally favor Democrats (health care, Civil Rights, income inequality, and the environment) and those that generally favor Republicans (economy, law and order, immigration, and freedom of speech). However, while the Republicans started the year with a clear advantage on the economy, that has faded amidst the pandemic lockdowns.

68% Trust American People More Than Government Officials

Posted on July 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to making important decisions about America’s future, 68% of voters nationwide trust the American people more than government officials. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 11% take the opposite view and 20% are not sure.

This view is shared broadly by all segments of society, although there is somewhat less confidence in the American people among younger voters. Just 64% of voters under 35 trust the American people more than government officials. Among senior citizens, that number in 79%.

Those with a college degree are a bit more skeptical of the American people than those without.

However, other survey data shows that in certain circumstances, voters are more willing to defer to government officials. For example, 50% support a national mandate requiring everyone to wear a mask in public.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 16-18, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 176 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

76% Believe American Politics Is More Polarized Than American Society

Posted on July 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters nationwide believe that American politics is more polarized than American society. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 12% disagree and 12% are not sure.

The totals include 43% who Strongly Agree and only 2% who Strongly Disagree with that perception.

Belief that politics is more polarized than society is found in all segments of society. It is a view shared by 81% of men and 72% of women; 90% of Senior Citizens and 67% of voters under 35; 79% of White voters, 78% of Hispanic voters, and 60% of Black voters. In fact, a strong majority of every measured demographic group believes American politics is more polarized that American society.

On a partisan basis, 84% of Republicans see this gap along with 72% of Democrats and 72% of Independents.

Those who do not see a gap between American society and politics are more pessimistic about the nation itself. By a 56% to 29% margin, they say that the U.S. is not a good role model for the world to follow. The numbers are reversed among those who see a gap between politics and society.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 9-11, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 117 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the final sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

34% Believe U.S. One of the Best Countries in the World for Black People; 22% Say One of the Worst

Posted on July 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters nationwide believe that the United States is one of the best places in the world for Black people to live. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 22% believe it is one of the worst.

Sixty percent (60%) believe the U.S. is one of the best places in the world for White people to live while 6% say it’s one of the worst.

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Methodology

Voters Cautiously Optimistic About America’s Future

Posted on July 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

In terms of living up to our founding ideals, Americans are cautiously optimistic.

When it comes to the topic of equality, 45% believe we will be doing better in a decade. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% take the opposite view and believe we will be heading in the opposite direction.

Polling released earlier shows that voters overwhelmingly consider the ideal of equality to be important. However, 46% don’t believe we’re doing a good job of living up to that ideal.

Overall, just 8% of voters believe both that we are doing a poor job on equality today and that things will continue to get worse. Another 17% are pessimistic about how we’re doing today and aren’t expecting much change over the coming decade.

When it comes to the founding ideal of Freedom, 39% expect progress over the next decade.

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Methodology

On Equality, 52% Say U.S. Doing Well; 46% Disagree

Posted on July 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters believe that Equality is a Very Important ideal for the United States to seek. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that another 10% consider it Somewhat Important. The survey also found that 83% consider Freedom Very Important (along with another 15%) who say it is a Somewhat Important ideal.

While recognizing the importance of those ideals, voters give the nation mixed marks for the way we’re living up to them. On equality, 52% say we’re doing at least Somewhat Well while 46% disagree. On Freedom, 63% believe we’re doing at least Somewhat Well while 35% disagree.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans believe the nation is doing okay when it comes to equality. Just 47% or Independents and 33% of Democrats agree. As on many issues, there is an interesting difference between the opinions of White Democrats and Non-white Democrats. Just 28% of White Democrats think the nation is doing at least Somewhat Well in terms of living up to the ideal of equality. However, Non-white Democrats are a bit more upbeat, 40% think the nation is doing okay.

Data released earlier showed that 74% of voters nationwide believe that “In daily life, most Americans generally get along regardless of race. They find ways to work together and create a better community.”

The survey also found that 75% believe Community is a Very Important ideal and 48% say the same about Self-Governance.

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Methodology

78% Proud to Be An American; 62% Proud of Our History

Posted on July 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters nationwide are proud to be an American. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 62% are proud of our nation’s history.

Other findings from the survey show that 52% consider themselves Very Patriotic and another 28% are Somewhat Patriotic. Older voters are more patriotic. In fact, by a 47% to 42% margin, voters aged 18-24 say they’re not patriotic.

Additionally, 48% believe the United States is a good role model for the world to follow while 35% disagree and 17% are not sure. A majority of White voters (52%) believe the U.S. is a good role model while a majority of Black voters (54%) disagree. Hispanic and other voters are evenly divided.

There are significant partisan, racial and generational differences on these topics.

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Methodology

49% Rate Their Personal Finances As Good or Excellent

Posted on July 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters nationwide rate their own personal finances as good or excellent. A Scott Rasmussen survey conducted July 9-11, 2020 found that 32% rate their finances as “fair” while 17% say poor.

Twenty-three percent (23%) say their finances are getting better while 26% say worse. Forty-nine percent (49%) say their finances are staying about the same at this time.

Republicans, by a 35% to 17% margin, believe their finances are getting better. Democrats, by a similar margin say they are getting worse.

Views of the overall economy are more pessimistic. Just 25% believe things are getting better while 50% say worse. Still, that’s a slight improvement compared to a month ago when 55% believed the economy was getting worse. The current numbers are similar to optimism measured in late May.

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Methodology

President Trump Job Approval Up to 44%

Posted on July 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-four percent (44%) of Registered Voters nationwide approve of the way President Trump is performing his job. That’s up five points from a week ago. It’s also the highest level of support the president has enjoyed in a Scott Rasmussen poll since mid-May.

A five-point swing in a single week is unusual and some of the change is likely due to statistical noise. However, it remains to be seen whether this week’s results represent a return to the earlier levels of support for the president.

Prior to mid-May, President Trump’s approval ratings held steady around 45% for several months. However, from late May throughout the month of June, the president’s job was several points lower in a range between 39% and 42%.

This week’s polling found that 88% of Republicans approve of the president’s performance, up eight points from a week ago. That may reflect a positive response among GOP voters to the president’s speech at Mount Rushmore. Media commentary on the speech portrayed it as divisive but many Republicans considered it a strong appeal to unity. The new numbers may also be in response to the media criticism of the president.

The president now also gets positive reviews from 37% of Independents and 12% of Democrats. Both figures are up slightly from a week ago.

The current totals include 28% who Strongly Approve and 46% who Strongly Disapprove.

Recent polling by Scott Rasmussen has also shown that 34% of voters say it will be at least six months before they’ll feel safe in public without a mask. Additionally, 74% Believe Most Americans Generally Get Along Regardless of Race and 24% Support DC Statehood.

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Methodology

34% Say It Will Be At Least Six Months Before They’ll Feel Safe in Public Without a Mask

Posted on July 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters nationwide say it will be six month or longer before they feel safe going out in public without a mask. That total is up from 25% three months ago and includes 9% who say they will never feel safe without a mask.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Democrats say it will take at least six months, up twelve points from the earlier survey.
Thirty percent (30%) of Independents say it will be at least six months, up ten points from May.
Nineteen percent (19%) of Republicans share those views, up four points in three months.

At the other extreme, 37% are already comfortable without a mask or expect to be soon (within a month). That’s down two points from the earlier survey. The decline is primarily driven by Republicans. In May, 58% of GOP voters were comfortable or expected to be soon. That’s down to 51% now.

From a different perspective, a majority (55%) of those in the May survey expected they would be comfortable going out with a mask by now.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 2-4, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 129 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

74% Believe Most Americans Generally Get Along Regardless of Race

Posted on July 7, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters nationwide believe that “In daily life, most Americans generally get along regardless of race. They find ways to work together and create a better community.” Twenty-one percent (21%) are not sure while 5% are not sure.

The totals include 30% who Strongly Agree and just 6% who Strongly Disagree.

By a 50% to 47% margin, Very Liberal Voters disagree with the statement. In every other measured demographic group, more people agree than disagree.

Still, there are significant differences among political and demographic lines. Eighty-two percent (82%) of senior citizens agree that most people get along regardless of race. Just 55% of voters under 25 share that view.

Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans believe people generally get along in daily life. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Independent voters and 63% of Democrats agree.

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Methodology

President Trump’s Job Approval: 39%

Posted on July 7, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Registered Voters nationwide approve of the way President Trump is performing his job. That’s the lowest level of approval yet measured in polling conducted by Scott Rasmussen. The survey also found that 58% disapprove.

Perhaps most concerning for the president is that support is slipping among Republicans. The latest results show that just 80% of those in his party offer their approval. That’s down slightly from 84% in mid-June.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day podcast today looks at why the president’s strong and loyal base of support may be a double edged sword for his campaign. Tomorrow, he’ll be looking at an topic that may pose a similar challenge for the Biden campaign. On Thursday, Scott’s podcast will look at an issue Democrats are pushing that may help Republicans retain control of the Senate.

In mid-June the president’s job approval was at 41%. Earlier in the year, President Trump’s approval ratings held steady in the mid-40s for several months.

The current totals include 27% who Strongly Approve and 47% who Strongly Disapprove.

Research conducted earlier found that 17% of all voters Strongly Disapprove of President Trump but also Strongly Oppose removing statues honoring George Washington.

The president also gets positive reviews from 33% of Independents and 8% of Democrats.

He also earns approval from 46% of white voters, 11% of black voters, and 27% of Hispanic voters.

Forty-four percent (44%) of self-employed voters approve of the president’s performance as do 40% of other private sector workers. Among government employees, however, just 31% approve.

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Methodology

24% Support DC Statehood

Posted on July 6, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters nationwide favor granting statehood to Washington, DC. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 49% preferred giving some of the land in DC back to Virginia and Maryland. That would give residents of the city voting rights while still preventing any one state from having an unfair advantage over the others. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are not sure which approach is better.

On Thursday, Scott Rasmussen’s Podcast will explore how this issue might help Republicans retain control of the Senate.

Very Liberal voters, by a 43% to 32% margin favor DC statehood over the alternative. However, in every other measured demographic group, more voters supported returning the land to Virginia and Maryland. Black voters were nearly evenly divided (38% prefer giving the land back, 35% would rather see DC statehood).

The survey found that just 46% of voters don’t believe it’s fair for DC residents to lack a voting representative in Congress.

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Methodology

Most Who Strongly Disapprove of Trump Also Oppose Removing Statues Honoring Washington

Posted on July 6, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Among those who Strongly Disapprove of President Trump, 57% also disapprove of removing statues that honor George Washington. Those findings come from an analysis of a JustTheNews.com national opinion survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen.

These results help explain why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden publicly opposed efforts to remove statues honoring early presidents who were also slave-owners. Both had earlier expressed support for taking down statues honoring honoring Confederate soldiers. Pelosi said the issue was not about slaveholding, but loyalty to the United States: “I do believe that if people have committed treason against the United States of America their statue should not be in the Capitol.”

Politically, as the party out of power, Democrats are hoping to draw support and energy from those who Strongly Disapprove of President Trump’s performance. However, that message could be complicated if those who most oppose the president come to see the Democrats embracing a policy of removing statues honoring George Washington and other early presidents. This represents significant block of voters. Seventeen percent (17%) of all voters Strongly Disapprove of President Trump and also Strongly Oppose efforts to take down statues honoring George Washington.

Overall, among all voters, the survey found that 24% favor removing the Washington statues while 65% are opposed.

Voters nationwide are evenly divided about removing statues honoring Confederate soldiers. There is a strong alignment between those who disapprove of the president and those who support removing statues honoring those who rebelled against the United States.

The JustTheNews.com survey found plurality support for removing statues honoring just one historical figure–Karl Marx.

54% of Those Out Working Believe Lockdowns Did More Harm Than Good

Posted on June 30, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Among workers having in-person interaction with customers and co-workers, 54% believe that the lockdowns have done more harm than good. However, among workers who are socially isolated, 62% take the opposite view. The socially isolated workers have no in person interaction with customers and co-workers.

Among all workers, 40% believe the lockdowns did more harm than good while 53% disagree.

A Ballotpedia national survey of 1,764 working Americans also found a significant gap between these groups on perceptions of the economy. Those out working are evenly divided as to whether the economy is getting better or worse. Among the socially isolated workers, however, perceptions are decidedly more pessimistic. By a 47% to 30% margin these workers believe the economy is getting worse.

Methodology

To accomplish this, we asked a series of standard pandemic-related questions in national survey interviews with 1,746 working Americans. The interviews were conducted between May 28 and June 6, 2020.

Biden 47% Trump 39%

Posted on June 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 47% to 39%. Six percent (6%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 7% are undecided.

This is a slight improvement for the president from two weeks ago when he trailed Biden by 12. The week before that, it was Biden by ten.

There are two basic ways to assess these numbers. The first is that the difference are merely statistical noise–this latest survey is two points closer than the ten-point margin and the previous survey was two points higher.

The other approach is to consider that the two previous polls were the biggest leads enjoyed by Biden all year. Prior to that, Biden’s lead has ranged between five and nine points since late March. It may be that Biden enjoyed a modest bounce in the polls as the Civil Rights issues initially emerged and that the bounce has now faded.

The president does better among private sector workers than government employees. Within the private sector, he does better among the self-employed rather than those who work for someone else.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 25-27, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 132 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

NOTE: Partisan breakdown of the sample: Democrats 37% Republicans 32% Other 31%.

Supreme Court Approval Rating at 52%

Posted on June 26, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters nationwide approve of the way the Supreme Court is performing its role. A Ballotpedia survey found that 31% disapprove and 17% are not sure.

The survey also found that a narrow plurality (30%) believe the Court’s ideological balance is about right. However, 28% believe it is too conservative and 19% believe it is too liberal.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Hispanic voters approve of the Court’s performance as do 53% of White voters. However, just 39% of Black voters share that assessment. Among Black voters, 44% disapprove.

A plurality of Republicans believe the Court is too liberal while a plurality of Democrats believe it is too conservative. Seven-out-of-ten Independent voters believe either that the balance is about right (30%) or are not sure (40%).

Data released yesterday showed that 47% of voters see Supreme Court nominations as a Very Important voting issue.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 20, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

47% Say Supreme Court Nominations Are Very Important Voting Issue

Posted on June 25, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters nationwide say that Supreme Court nominations will be a Very Important voting issue in terms of deciding their vote for President. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 56% of Democrats, 48% of Republicans, and 35% of those not affiliated with either major party.

Still, despite the significance of the Supreme Court, five other issues were seen as Very Important by a larger number of voters. Seventy-three percent (73%) consider health care to be a Very Important voting issue while 67% say the same about the economy. Close behind, 64% say Civil Rights issues are Very Important while an identical number say Law and Order is that important. Immigration is seen as Very Important by 53% of voters.

On most of the issues, there is little difference between the views of those who are out working and those who are not interacting with customers or co-workers. However, there is a substantial divide on the issue of law and order. Among those workers who regularly interact with both customers and co-workers, 78% say Law and Order is a Very Important Issue. Among those who are not interacting with others, just 49% hold that view.

Methodology

64% Believe Worst of Pandemic is Still To Come–Most Pessimistic Assessment Yet Measured

Posted on June 24, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 16% of voters now believe the worst of the Coronavirus is behind us. A Ballotpedia national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters found that 64% believe the worst is still to come.

That’s quite a change from earlier in the month when 29% believed the worst was behind us and only 42% took the more pessimistic view. In fact, those earlier numbers were the most optimistic yet recorded. The current numbers are the most pessimistic.

In mid-April, just 16% believed the worst was behind us. That matches the current numbers. At that time, 60% feared the worst was still to come, four points lower than the current total.
Later in April, 23% held the optimistic view while 49% disagreed.
However, in mid-May, confidence fell. The number thinking the worst was behind us fell to 17%. At the same time, the number fearing the worst was still to come jumped seven points to 56%.

Given this history, it seems likely that the emotional roller-coaster will continue.

The pessimistic view is now shared by 75% of Democrats, 62% of Independents, and 52% of Republicans.

Those who are out working and interacting with customers and co-workers are a bit more optimistic. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of them believe the worst is behind us. Among those who have no in-person interactions, just 11% share that view.

Methodology

39% Trust Democrats on Economy, 38% Trust Republicans

Posted on June 23, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to the economy, voters are evenly divided as to which party they trust more. A Ballotpedia national survey found that 39% trust Democrats more while 38% trust the GOP. The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters also found that 14% don’t trust either party and 9% are not sure.

There is an interesting gap among working Americans based upon how they are currently working. Those workers who have no personal interaction with either customers or co-workers trust Democrats more than Republicans by a 45% to 27% margin. However, among those who regularly have in-person contact with both customers and co-workers, the opposite is true. Fifty-two percent (52%) of those who are out working trust Republicans more while just 34% have more confidence in Democrats.

Ballotpedia will continue to explore the gap between these groups of workers in the coming weeks.

38% Believe American Society is Fair and Decent

Posted on June 22, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 38% of voters nationwide believe our society is generally fair and decent. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that nearly half (47%) believe our society is unfair and discriminatory.

These numbers reflect a dramatic change from the first time Scott asked that question back in the 1990s. In those days, voters routinely said society was generally fair and decent by roughly a 2-to-1 margin.

The current numbers show a significant partisan divide. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans say our society is fair and decent while 69% of Democrats take the opposite view. By a 45% to 31% margin, Independent voters agree with the Democrats.

Not surprisingly, there is also a big racial divide on this question. White voters are evenly divided while 77% of Black voters say our society is unfair and discriminatory. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Hispanic voters agree.

Other data from the survey found that 76% of voters believe most Americans want to live in a society where white and black Americans are treated equally. Thirteen percent (13%) believe that’s not true and 11% aren’t sure.

Twenty-three percent (23%) of Black voters don’t believe that most Americans want racial equality.

The survey also found that just 49% of all voters believe most Republicans favor racial equality. Thirty-three percent (33%) disagree.

A majority of Black voters (54%) do not believe most members of the GOP want whites and blacks treated equally. Forty-five percent (45%) of Hispanic voters share that view.

Methodology

55% Believe Economy Getting Worse

Posted on June 17, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide believe the economy is getting worse these days. A Ballotpedia national survey found that figure is up five points from a survey conducted in late May.

Since that earlier survey, the number who believe the economy is getting better has inched up just two points to 24%.

To some, these results may be surprising. The initial survey was conducted before the most recent jobs report, at a time when many experts projected the report would show millions of jobs lost. Instead, that report showed a net gain of 2.5 million jobs. However, after an economic slump, it often takes many months of good economic news before confidence rebounds.

Additionally, the partisan dynamics are interesting. Since that earlier survey, Republicans have grown more optimistic while Democrats and Independents have gone in the opposite direction.

Fifty percent (50%) of GOP voters now believe the economy is getting better–up nine points since late May.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democrats now believe the economy is getting worse–up ten points from the previous survey.

The number of Independents who believe the economy is getting worse jumped eight points to 58%.

Data released earlier showed showed that 42% of voters know someone who lost their job due to the shutdowns and have since been rehired. On that question, there is no significant partisan gap.

We will continue to monitor economic expectations as American recovers.

Ballotpedia is Documenting America’s Path to Recovery by providing comprehensive coverage on how the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is affecting America’s political and civic life. Click here to sign up for daily email updates.

Coverage includes how federal, state, and local governments are responding, and the effects those responses are having on campaigns and elections. We document the plans for recovery put forth by states, localities, and others in a way that allows citizens, policymakers, influencers, pundits, and the nation’s reporters to engage in fruitful comparisons about moving forward. We will curate the ongoing debates, as well as the political impact of the conversations.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 11-13, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 306 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

42% Know Someone Who Lost Their Job During The Pandemic and Have Been Rehired

Posted on June 17, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters nationwide have a close friend or family member who lost their job during the shutdown and since been rehired. A Ballotpedia survey of 1,200 Registered Voters found that 49% do not and 9% are not sure.

There is a significant generational divide on this question. Among voters under 45, just over half (51%) know someone close to them who has been rehired. That falls to 27% among senior citizens.

Beyond that, however, there are few noticeable demographic divides.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Republican voters know someone who lost their job and been rehired. So do 38% of Democrats and 44% of Independents.

We will continue to track this measure as part of our effort to monitor the reopening of American society.

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Methodology

For Second Week in a Row, Trump Approval At 41%

Posted on June 15, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

For the second straight week, a Scott Rasmussen national survey of Registered Voters found that 41% approve of the way President Trump is performing his job. That matches last week as the lowest level of approval measured in a Scott Rasmussen national survey.

The number disapproving increased a point to 58%, a new high.

Those totals include 27% who Strongly Approve and 49% who Strongly Disapprove.

Perhaps the most significant aspect of this finding is the timing of the survey. Most interviews for last week’s survey were completed prior to the surprisingly positive jobs report showing a gain of 2.5 million new jobs. However, that does not appear to have had any immeidate impact on the president’s job approval numbers.

Looking ahead to the November election, the president’s numbers are especially weak among uncommitted voters. Among those who say they will vote for some other candidate or are undecided, just 23% approve of the president’s performance. Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove.

Overall, approval currently come from 84% of Republicans, 34% of Independents, and 8% of Democrats.

The president earns approval from 47% of white voters, 15% of black voters, and 27% of Hispanic voters.

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Methodology

Economy, Health Care, Civil Rights Top Three Voting Issues

Posted on June 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty percent (30%) of voters nationwide rate the economy as the top issue facing the nation today. A Ballotpedia national survey found that 17% view health care as most important, 16% name Civil Rights and 11% say Law and Order. No other issue reaches double digit support at this time.

Other polling has shown that health care and the economy have been top issues for years. However, both terms have taken on a different tone in the coronavirus pandemic era.

When it comes to issue priorities, there are significant partisan and demographic differences.

Civil Rights is the top issue for 24% of Democrats. Twenty-three percent (23%) say healthcare and 20% name the economy as most important.

For Republicans, the economy is far and away the top issue. Forty-one percent (41%) of GOP voters consider it most important followed by Law and Order (20%) and healthcare (13%).

Among Independents, the economy is number one (30%). That parallels the Republican view. However, unlike Republicans, number two on the list for Independents is the issue of Civil Rights(15%).

Voters under 35 see Civil Rights as most important. Older voters place a higher priority on the economy and health care.

Among black voters, Civil Rights is number one. Among white and Hispanic voters, the economy is seen as a top priority.

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Methodology

51% Worry About Economic Threat from Pandemic More Than Health Threat

Posted on June 10, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When asked about what worries them most about the coronavirus, 51% now say it’s threat to the U.S. economy. A Ballotpedia national survey found that 43% are more worried about the health threat.

This is the third straight week that more people have expressed greater concern about the economic threat rather than the health threat. It’s the first time more than 50% have expressed that concern.

These figures represent a significant change from late March when just 38% were more worried about the economic threat. At that time, 53% expressed greater concern about the health threat.

By late April and early May, the figures had generally evened up. Since then, the trend has continued to show a relative decline in concern about the health threat.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 4-6, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 246 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

22% Don’t Think It Matters Whether Biden or Trump Wins

Posted on June 9, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-two percent (22%) of Registered Voters don’t think it matters much whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 11% who say it won’t make any real difference in their life and 11% who aren’t sure if it will make a difference.

On top of that, another 17% say it will make only a minor difference.

That leaves 62% of voters who believe the outcome of the election will make a major difference in their life.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Trump voters say it will make a major difference along with 68% of Biden voters.

However, among those who say they’d vote for some other candidate, 53% don’t think it will make a difference and another 20% say it would make just a minor difference.

As for undecided voters, 74% say it won’t make a difference in their lives and another 15% expect only a minor difference.

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Methodology

29% Believe Worst of Pandemic Behind Us

Posted on June 9, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters now believe the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us. A Ballotpedia survey found that 42% disagree and think the worst is still to come. Another 29% are not sure.

These are by far the most optimistic assessments of the situation found in months of regular polling on the topic.

In mid-April, just 16% believed the worst was behind us while 60% feared it was still to come.
Later in April, 23% held the optimistic view while 49% disagreed.
However, in mid-May, confidence fell. The number thinking the worst was behind us fell to 17%. At the same time, the number fearing the worst was still to come jumped seven points to 56%.

Given this history, it’s too early to say whether the optimism will continue.

Throughout all the bouncing around, Republicans were always more optimistic than Democrats or Independents. That remains true today. By a 52% to 23% margin, Republicans believe the worst is behind us. Democrats, by a 56% to 14% margin, take the opposite view and believe the worst is still to come. Among Independents, 23% say it’s behind us while 42% worry that the worst is still to come.

Women, by a 2-to-1 margin, believe the worst is still to come. Men are evenly divided.

This data was featured in Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day on Ballotpedia. The Number of the Day has now expanded to a podcast format with a new release every weekday morning at 8:00 a.m. Eastern.

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Methodology

Just the News Adds Daily Podcast from Pollster Scott Rasmussen

Posted on June 9, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Washington, D.C. and New York, NY, June 9, 2020 – Pollster, political analyst and author Scott Rasmussen unpacks newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics and technology with his “Number of the Day.” His long-running feature at Ballotpedia is now expanding to become the newest show on the Just the News podcast platform.

Just the News is a multiplatform news network launched in January 2020 by award-winning investigative journalist John Solomon.

“Scott has been conducting our widely quoted daily poll and now he will give our listeners a podcast that makes sense of the numbers that define what Americans are thinking,” Solomon said. “He is one of the most respected barometers of American sentiment. The context and insights he brings to politics are a must-listen opportunity as we head into the 2020 fall election.”

Rasmussen, for decades one of America’s most trusted pollsters and political analysts, says “I am excited by the opportunity to share my passion for data-driven analysis with a new audience. And it’s great to work with John and the entire Just the News team.”

His podcast will be released each weekday morning at 8:00 a.m. Eastern.

“Scott has earned his place among America’s premier pollsters and political analysts,” said Ron Hartenbaum, managing member of Crossover Media Group, the cross-platform content-production and advertising-sales firm which produces, sells and distributes audio and video programming for Just the News. “He gets it right more often than most, and his insights can be essential to understanding the 2020 races.”

“Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day,” which will be produced from studios in New York City and Washington, DC, joins a growing lineup of Just the News content including:

“John Solomon Reports,” a twice-weekly podcast on Tuesdays and Thursdays, featuring the veteran investigative reporter and Editor in Chief of Just the News;
“The Pod’s Honest Truth with David Brody,” a Monday and Wednesday podcast hosted by longtime CBN correspondent and Just the News senior contributing editor David Brody; and
“The Sharyl Attkisson Podcast,” published weekly on Fridays, featuring the Emmy-Award winning investigative television correspondent.

About Just the News

Just the News is a Washington-based news outlet that delivers exclusive reporting, podcasts, books, polling and video content showcasing some of the most respected and trusted journalists and editors in news media today.

Watch for additional announcements soon by visiting www.JustTheNews.com, or get updates via social media @JTNReports on Twitter and @JustTheNewsReports on Facebook. For interview or media inquiries, please email media@justthenews.com.

About Scott Rasmussen

Long recognized as one of the world’s leading public opinion pollsters, Scott Rasmussen is committed to enhancing the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion. The Wall Street Journal called him “a key player in the contact sport of politics,” while the Washington Post said he is a “driving force in American politics.” Among his many activities, he is editor at large at Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics. His latest book is The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not. More information, including recent poll results, can be found at ScottRasmussen.com and @ScottWRasmussen.

About Crossover Media Group

Crossover Media Group is a media & ad sales consulting firm serving all of North America, with expertise including TV, radio, podcasts, streaming, OTT networks and other platforms. Crossover Media Group, with offices in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Dallas, is a collaborative and adaptive results-driven company committed to engaging and expanding clients’ audiences through digital and social platforms.

# # #

Biden 47% Trump 37%

Posted on June 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by ten points– 47% to 37%. Nine percent (9%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 7% are undecided.

That’s an improvement for Biden who held a seven-point advantage last week. It’s also the biggest lead Biden has enjoyed in Scott Rasmussen polling all year. Prior to this, Biden’s lead has ranged between five and nine points since late March.

The former Vice President leads by 30-points among urban voters and by 14 points in the suburbs. President Trump leads by 19 among rural voters.

The survey was conducted Thursday evening through Saturday morning (June 4-6, 2020). Most of the interviews were completed prior to the surprisingly positive jobs report released on Friday. It remains to be seen whether the more encouraging economic news will have any impact on these numbers.

The same survey found the president’s job approval rating falling to a new low at 41%.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published each weekday morning by Ballotpedia. Starting today, Scott is releasing a daily PODCAST in partnership with Just The News.

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Methodology

68% Have Had Protests In Their Area; Overwhelmingly Peaceful

Posted on June 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters have recently had protests in their area. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 27% have not and 5% are not sure.

Among those who have had protests in their area, 67% say they have generally remained peaceful. Just 31% say they have turned violent.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of urban and suburban voters have had protests near where they live. Just 54% of rural voters say the same.

In those rural areas, 79% report that the protests have remained peaceful. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those in the suburbs agree.

However, in urban areas, the responses are more mixed. While 54% of urban voters report that the protests in their area have remained peaceful, nearly as many (44%) say they have turned violent.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published each weekday morning by Ballotpedia. Starting today, Scott is releasing a daily PODCAST in partnership with Just The News.

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Methodology

President Trump’s Job Approval Falls to 41%

Posted on June 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

President Trump’s Job Approval rating has fallen to 41% among Registered Voters. That’s the lowest level measured in a Scott Rasmussen national survey. Fifty-seven percent (57%) currently disapprove.

Those numbers include 28% who Strongly Approve and 47% who Strongly Disapprove.

The president earns approval from 46% of white voters, 15% of black voters, and 31% of Hispanic voters.

While most rurual voters (55%) approve of the president’s performance, that view is shared by 39% of suburban voters and 31% of those living in urban areas.

Last week, polling conducted by Scott Rasmussen for JustTheNews.com found the president’s Job Approval at 45%. In fact, several months of survey results found President Trump’s approval ratings holding steady in the mid-40s.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published each weekday morning by Ballotpedia. Starting today, Scott is releasing a daily PODCAST in partnership with Just The News.

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Methodology

48% Think Businesses Can Decide Mask Rules for Their Customers

Posted on June 5, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters believe private businesses should be allowed to decide whether or not their customers are required to wear masks. A Ballotpedia survey found that 47% disagree and 5% are not sure.

There is a strong partisan divide on this question. By a 64% to 32% margin, Republican voters believe businesses should set the rules for their customers. By a 57% to 38% margin, Democrats disagree and say businesses should not be allowed to do so. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Moving out of the business environment into public spaces, 68% believe governments have the legal authority to require masks in public. But, again, there is a wide partisan divide. Eighty percent (80%) of Democrats believe state and local governments have such authority. Only 60% of Independents and 56% of Republicans agree.

Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 1, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected at random from a combination of voter lists and Random Digital Engagement techniques. Certain quotas were applied and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

45% of Today’s Workers Using Zoom Calls

Posted on June 4, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of workers today are regularly taking part in Zoom calls or other video conferencing efforts. A Ballotpedia survey total includes 65% of those working primarily from home and 29% of those working primarily in a company office.

The survey found that total includes 24% of workers who use Zoom but have no in-person interaction with either co-workers or customers. Not surprisingly, 93% of those Zoom-only workers are primarily working from home.

Seventy percent (70%) of these Zoom-only workers have a college degree and 25% earn more than $100,000 annually.

Forty-two percent (42%) are Democrats, 28% Republican, and 30% are not affiliated with either major party.

Just 27% approve of the way President Trump is performing his job.

The survey of 1,026 working Americans was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from May 30- June 2, 2020.

38% of Today’s Workers Interact With Customers In Person

Posted on June 3, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of working Americans today regularly see customers in person.

A Ballotpedia survey found that 64% of those workers are generally comfortable with the safety protocols that have been established during the pandemic. Thirty percent (30%) are nervous about seeing customers and/or co-workers in person while 5% are not sure.

In terms of their own personal situation, 52% of these workers worry more about the economic threat of the coronavirus than the health threat. Forty-two percent (42%) are more concerned about the health issues.

Those numbers are nearly the reverse of attitudes expressed by workers who don’t interact with customers these days. Among those workers, 54% worry more about the health threat while 41% have greater concerns about the economic impact.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of those interacting with customers believe the lockdowns have done more harm than good. Just 33% of other workers share that view.

The national survey of 1,026 working Americans was conducted by Scott Rasmussen. Additional data from the survey will be released in the near future.

22% Say Economy Getting Better; 50% Say Worse

Posted on June 2, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters nationwide now believe the economy is getting better. A Ballotpedia survey also found that 50% believe it is getting worse and 23% believe it is staying about the same.

The U.S. economy had been strong before the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment levels were reaching record lows. In response to the pandemic, however, government ordered shutdowns of the economy have cost more than 40 million workers their jobs. As lockdown orders are easing, it is unclear how quickly the economy will rebound.

At this point in time, Republican voters are much more optimistic about a potential rebound than Democrats or Independents. In fact, a modest plurality of Republicans (41%) believe economic conditions are starting to improve. Still, 34% of the GOP voters think things are still getting worse.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats believe the economy is getting worse while 9% take the more optimistic view. Among Independents, 50% say the economy is getting worse while 16% believe it is getting better.

In one sense, these results are fairly typical. When a Republican is in the White House, Republicans are more optimistic about the economy. When a Democrat is in the White House, the reverse is true. However, the magnitude of the gap at this time is especially significant.

The survey also found that men are more optimistic than women. Older voters are more optimistic than younger.

We will continue to monitor economic expectations as American recovers.

READ “Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day,” presented by Ballotpedia.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 28-30, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 172 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

53% More Worried About Coronavirus Threat to Their Health Than Their Finances

Posted on June 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters nationwide are more worried about the Coronavirus threat to their health rather than their finances. A Ballotpedia survey of 1,200 Registered Voters found that 39% are more concerned about the economic threat.

Perhaps surprisingly, there is only a modest difference between young and old on this question. Among voters under 45, nearly half (48%) are more concerned about their health. As for older voters, 56% are concerned primarily about their health.

The similarity of concern exists alongside the reality that older people are far more likely to have coronavirus related health issues. While nursing homes house less than 1% of the U.S. population, they account for 42% of all deaths attributed to the disease.

There is no gender gap on the issue, and views are broadly similar across racial lines, employment status, income levels, and other factors. The only exceptions are found along partisan and ideological lines.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of Democrats are more concerned for their health, a view shared by just 38% of Republicans.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of conservatives are more concerned about their personal economic challenges, a view shared by just 19% of liberals.

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Methodology

21% Believe It Will Be At Least Six Months Before Most Businesses Re-Open

Posted on May 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Ballotpedia survey found that 21% of voters nationwide believe it will be at least six months before most businesses reopen and social activity resumes. That total includes 6% who believe it will take more than a year.

Ballotpedia, the encyclopedia of American politics, provides the most comprehensive source of information on the various state efforts to reopen in their Documenting America’s Path to Recovery. Click here to sign up for daily email updates.

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that a much larger number–45%–believe most businesses will reopen within a month or two. Twenty-eight percent (28%) believe it will take three to six more months.

These figures highlight a much more pessimistic assessment of the situation than was found earlier. In fact, in late March, 58% of voters expected that most businesses would be open by now. At that time, only 8% thought it would take six months or more.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 21-23, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 258 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

20% Lack Confidence They Could Receive Appropriate Treatment for Coronavirus

Posted on May 28, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

If infected by the coronavirus, a Ballotpedia national survey found that 20% of registered voters nationwide lack confidence they could receive appropriate medical treatment. That total includes 14% who are Not Very Confident and 6% who are Not at All Confident about access to treatment.

Those figures reflect a ten-point improvement since early April when 30% lacked such confidence.

Looked at from a different angle, 75% are now confident they could receive appropriate treatment. That’s up nine-points from 66% in the previous survey.

Among lower-income voters today, 28% lack confidence they could receive appropriate treatment. That concern is shared by 19% of middle-income voters and 13% of upper income voters.

39% Have Family Member Who Lost Primary Income Due to Shutdowns

Posted on May 27, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters have a family member who has lost their primary income due to the government shutdowns of the economy. A Ballotpedia survey of 1,200 Registered Voters found that 57% have not experienced that challenge.

Methodology

45% Rate U.S. Health Care System as Good or Excellent

Posted on May 26, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Ballotpedia survey found the 45% of Registered Voters rate the United States health care system as good or excellent. Thirty-six percent (36%) rate it as “fair” while 16% say poor.

Methodology

Just 34% Trust Government Officials More Than Voters On Questions About Re-opening Society

Posted on May 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When it comes to making decisions about re-opening, just 34 percent of voters trust government officials more than everyday Americans. Let’s face it, it’s hard to have confidence in government decision-making when decisions about which businesses can open seem either irrational or blatantly political. That’s one reason why more voters—43 percent—place their trust in the general public.

On the core issue of who do you trust, upper-income Americans, government employees, college graduates and Democrats alike are all more comfortable with the government making sweeping decisions. The reverse is true for lower- and middle-income Americans, private sector workers, retirees, those without a college degree, Republicans and independents.

Other recent data shows that 41% of voters believe shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good. Additionally, 52% agree with Ronald Reagan’s assessment: the nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Those words continue to resonate with many Americans.

The implications of these findings were addressed in a Newsweek column by Scott Rasmussen. “Despite the fact that the public is anxious to re-open society, several Democratic governors are desperately clinging to their lockdown policies. Their efforts could help ensure the re-election of Donald Trump.”

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 14-16, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or by text while 238 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

41% Believe Lockdowns Have Done More Harm Than Good

Posted on May 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Despite good intentions, 41% of voters nationwide believe shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 51% disagree and 8% are not sure.

The implications of this finding were addressed in a Newsweek column by Scott Rasmussen. The column notes “As the economic trauma continues, those numbers are almost certain to shift and cast the initial lockdowns in an even less favorable light.”

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans believe the lockdowns have done more harm than good. That view is shared by 36% of Independent voters and 27% of Democrats.

There is a racial divide on this question among Democrats. Overall, just 20% of white Democrats believe the lockdowns have done more harm than good. However, 38% of non-white Democrats believe that to be true.

Overall, 40% of white voters, 41% of black voters, and 42% of Hispanic voters believe the lockdowns have done more harm than good.

Other recent polling found that 52% agree with Ronald Reagan’s assessment: the nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Those words continue to resonate with many Americans.

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52% Share Reagan’s View That “Help” From the Government Can Be Terrifying

Posted on May 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Ronald Reagan famously declared that the nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Those words continue to resonate with many Americans.

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 52% of voters share Reagan’s view of how terrifying government “help” can be. Only 35% disagree while 13% are not sure.

The implications of this finding during a time of lockdowns were addressed in a Newsweek column by Scott Rasmussen.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans today agree with Reagan’s view. So do 46% of Democrats and 44% of Independents.

The view is shared by 51% of white voters, 49% of black voters, and 54% of Hispanic voters.

It is also shared by 56% of Rural voters, 53% of Suburban voters, and 48% of Urban voters.

Just 45% of college graduates share Reagan’s view. Among those without a degree, that figures rises to 55%.

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President Trump Job Approval Steady at 45%

Posted on May 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters approve of the way President Trump is performing his job while 51% disapprove. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found those totals include 30% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.

These results have remained little change over the past few months.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans approve of the president’s performance while 84% of Democrats disapprove. Among Independents, 39% approve while 53% disapprove.

Just 39% of college graduates approve while 50% without a degree do not.

The president earns positive reviews from 56% of rural voters, 47% of suburban voters, and 36% of urban voters.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of white voters approve along with 35% of Hispanic voters and 12% of Black voters.

When it comes to making decisions about re-opening, just 34% of voters trust government officials more than everyday Americans. More voters—43%—place their trust in the general public. Upper-income Americans, government employees, college graduates and Democrats alike are all more comfortable with the government making sweeping decisions. The reverse is true for lower- and middle-income Americans, private sector workers, retirees, those without a college degree, Republicans and independents.

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56% Believe Worst is Still to Come

Posted on May 19, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is still to come. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% believe the worst is now behind us.

That’s a more pessimistic assessment than voters offered at the end of April. At that time, just 49% believed the worst was still to come while 23% thought it had come and gone.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of Democrats believe the worst is still to come, as do 60% of Independents. However, Republicans are fairly evenly divided–39% say the worst is still to come while 32% believe it is behind us.

Still, while recognizing the difficulties that lie ahead, polling data shows that voters are ready to re-open society. Most are ready to resume visiting their favorite restaurants, salons, and churches. Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide believe every business that establishes safe social distancing protocols should be allowed to open. Just 26% are opposed.

47% Primarily Concerned About Health Threat from Pandemic; 47% About Economic Threat

Posted on May 18, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Voters are evenly divided about what is the greatest threat from the coronavirus pandemic. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 47% of Registered Voters are most concerned about the Health Threat while another 47% are primarily concerned about the Economic Threat.

This is the third consecutive week of polling that has found an even divide. Two weeks ago, a slight plurality was more concerned about the Economic Threat. Last week, a slight plurality was more concerned about the Health Threat.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans worry more about the Economic Threat while 64% of Democrats take the opposite view. Independent voters are evenly divided. While there are modest differences along various demographic lines, partisanship is the strongest indicator of an individual’s perceptions on this topic.

Men, by a 50% to 45% margin, are more worried about the economy. Women, by a 49% to 44% margin, are more worried about health issues.

Rural voters are somewhat more worried about the economy while urban voters are a bit more likely to worry about the health aspects of the pandemic.

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 14-16, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 238 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Just 14% of Voters Want Congress to Stop Spending Now

Posted on May 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 14% of voters believe Congress should stop spending money on new programs at this time. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 73% believe the federal government should continue to provide additional financial support for businesses and individuals directly impacted by the shutdown.

Support for such spending comes from 82% of Democrats, 71% of Independents, and 63% of Republicans.

The results are broadly consistent with other data showing that 64% believe the government should be required to compensate business owners for any losses caused by the government ordered shutdown.

Strong support for new government spending is a rarity in American politics. In this case, the support likely exists because of the connection with government actions that caused the economic harm. Additional research will be needed to determine whether there is public support for spending beyond providing compensation for those harmed by the lockdowns.

That could emerge as a significant dividing line in Congressional debates concerning next steps. Early indications are that House Democrats envision this as a time to enact a broader level of new spending. Some Republicans think it’s time to stop all new spending while others are searching for a way to define meaningful limits to preserve some measure of fiscal discipline.

If Republicans do not come to the table with a plan, however, 58% of voters are ready for President Trump to make a deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Just 18% are opposed while 23% are not sure. If Republicans won’t support any new spending, even Republican voters, by a 45% to 31% margin, want the president to make a deal with Pelosi.

Other recent polling shows that 60% of voters nationwide believe every business that establishes safe social distancing protocols should be allowed to open. These numbers cut strongly against the narrative that voters remain committed to continuing the lockdowns. I take a look at some of the reasons behind this disconnect in my latest column.

Currently, 38% believe it would be appropriate to continue the lockdowns in their own neighborhood and community. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree. That total includes 40% who believe it is time to ease the restrictions and 17% who believe it is time to end the lockdowns.

Additionally, 65% are concerned that some public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 7-9, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 174 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied and the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

64% Believes Governments Should Cover Losses of Businesses They Shut Down

Posted on May 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters nationwide believe the government should be required to compensate business owners for any losses caused by the government ordered shutdown. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 15% disagree and 21% are not sure.

This is one aspect of the lockdown era that enjoys support across party lines. The idea that government should be liable for the costs of shutting down businesses is embraced by 67% of Republicans, 65% of Independents, and 61% of Democrats.

It’s also supported by 71% of private sector workers and 64% of government employees. Retirees aren’t as enthusiastic, but still support the concept by a 49% to 23% margin.

Additionally, 65% are concerned that some public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans.

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60% of Voters Okay Allowing All Businesses to Re-open With Social Distancing Protocols

Posted on May 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide believe every business that establishes safe social distancing protocols should be allowed to open. The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 26% oppose the idea.

Support for allowing all businesses to responsibly re-open comes from 78% of Republicans, 60% of Independents, and 45% of Democrats.

At first glance, these results appear to contradict data suggesting ongoing public support for the lockdowns. In fact, the very same poll found that only 23% of voters think government officials have gone too far in shutting things down. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe those officials have either not gone far enough (35%) or have found the right balance (36%).

Digging a little deeper highlights the connections between these results.

* Not surprisingly, just about everyone who thinks the government has gone too far believes that businesses should be allowed to open with appropriate safety protocols.

* Among those who think the government response so far has been about right, 61% agree that all businesses should be allowed to re-open with safety protocols. Just 23% are opposed. The overall tone seems to be that the response has been okay so far and allowing businesses to open responsibly is the next logical step.

* The most stunning response comes from those who think the government has not gone far enough in shutting things down. On the question of allowing every business to re-open, they are evenly divided: 39% say yes while 45% do not.

In my weekly column for the Deseret News, I address some possible reasons for the apparent disconnect. It may be that “words like lockdown and shutdown being used in the public dialogue almost interchangeably with social distancing and flattening the curve.”

Whatever the explanation, the fact remains that only one-out-of-four voters today is opposed to letting all businesses re-open in a responsible manner. That cuts strongly against the narrative that voters remain committed to continuing the lockdowns. At the same time, voters still expect a strong societal commitment to social distancing and appropriate health protocols.

Other recent data shows that 65% of voters are concerned that public officials may be using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans.

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The Value of Asking Questions From a Different Perspective: 60% Favor Allowing All Businesses to Re-open

Posted on May 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

One of the great joys of being a public opinion pollster comes when results to different questions seem to contradict each other. Some people — far too many in the political world — simply dismiss such apparent contradictions as evidence that people are either irrational or stupid. However, for those of us who trust the commonsense wisdom of everyday Americans, seemingly contradictory results provide an opportunity to better understand the public mood in a more nuanced manner.

I’ve seen many examples of this since first writing about how pollsters may be asking the wrong questions about the coronavirus pandemic. Last week, I noted that most Americans understand it’s not a question of stay home to stay safe or go out and get sick. Instead, most recognize that there are significant health risks involved in continuing the lockdowns. Since no options are completely safe, voters are weighing the difficult trade-offs based upon the underlying facts.

My polling this past weekend found that 23% of voters think government officials have gone too far in shutting things down. However, 71% believe those officials have either not gone far enough (35%) or have found the right balance (36%).

Most pollsters have found similar results. In most cases, the polls show slight growth in the number who think the government has gone too far, but that perspective still reflects a minority view. Using this as the only point of reference, one might conclude that voters remain committed to maintaining the lockdowns. Indeed, that’s the way much media coverage defines the public mood.

But when you ask questions from a different perspective, it becomes clear there is another side to the story. Sixty percent (60%) of voters believe every business that establishes safe social distancing protocols should be allowed to open. Every business! Not just a chosen few. Just 26% oppose the idea.

These numbers cut strongly against the narrative that voters remain committed to continuing the lockdowns.

What’s especially fascinating about this is that the results come from the exact same poll finding that 71% reject the idea that governments have gone too far. The same 1,200 survey respondents provided these seemingly very different answers.

It gets even more interesting when you dig a little deeper.

Not surprisingly, just about everyone who thinks the government has gone too far believes that businesses should be allowed to open with appropriate safety protocols.
Among those who think the government response so far has been about right, 61% agree that all businesses should be allowed to reopen with safety protocols. Just 23% are opposed. The overall tone seems to be that the response has been OK so far and allowing businesses to open responsibly is the next logical step.
The most stunning response comes from those who think the government has not gone far enough in shutting things down. On the question of allowing every business to reopen, they are evenly divided: 39% say yes while 45% do not.

What’s going on with about the people who think that governments have not gone far enough in shutting things down? How come only 45% of them oppose letting all businesses reopen?

One possible explanation may have something to do with words like lockdown and shutdown being used in the public dialogue almost interchangeably with social distancing and flattening the curve. As a result, some voters may viscerally equate ending the lockdowns with ending all social distancing efforts. So, they are uncomfortable ending lockdowns but OK with businesses that establish appropriate safety protocols.

Another possibility is that we may be misinterpreting the perceptions of the 35% who say governments have not gone far enough. Many in that group undoubtedly want even stricter government limits on social interaction. However, others may think the governments haven’t done enough to establish safe approaches for reopening society.

Whatever the explanation, the fact remains that only 1 out of 4 voters today is opposed to letting all businesses reopen in a responsible manner. That really shouldn’t be all that surprising given America’s historic commitment to individual freedom. In fact, the same survey found that 65% are concerned that some public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the constitutional rights of individual Americans.

The bottom line is that most voters are ready to end the formal, government-imposed, lockdowns. But they are still demanding a strong societal commitment to social distancing and appropriate health protocols. The new rules will be enforced by individual Americans deciding which businesses are safe enough to visit and which ones should be avoided.

Scott Rasmussen is an American political analyst and digital media entrepreneur. He is the author of “The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not.”

Biden 44% Trump 38%

Posted on May 11, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by six points– 44% to 38%. Seven percent (7%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 10% are undecided.

The candidates are essentially even among men and voters over 45. Biden leads by double digits among women and voters under 35.

Three weeks ago. Biden was up by nine points. Two weeks ago, he led by eight. Last week, the lead had slipped to seven. This brings the race back to where it was in late March, when Biden enjoyed a five point advantage.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters nationwide believe it would be appropriate to continue the lockdowns in their own neighborhood and community. However, 57% disagree. Most believe the rules and guidelines should be established locally.

Sixty-five percent (65%) are concerned that public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans. That total includes 39% who are Very Concerned.

Fifty-five percent (55%) believe the nation needs stricter immigration policies going forward.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters nationwide consider trade policies to be primarily a national security issue. However, most clearly see trade policy than raw economics. Most voters (58%) say ensuring that important materials are produced in the United States is a higher priority than keeping costs down. Just 28% say keeping costs down and promoting economic growth matters more.

Finally, many voters are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

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65% Concerned Officials Using Pandemic As Excuse to Infringe on Constitutional Rights

Posted on May 11, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters nationwide are at least somewhat concerned that public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 39% who are Very Concerned.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans are concerned along with 63% of Independent voters and 52% of Democrats.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of urban voters are concerned. So are 66% of rural voters and 63% in the suburbs. Other data shows that urban voters tend to be more supportive of lockdowns than others. Their level of concern about Constitutional Rights being infringed may result from the fact that many urban voters are living under more severe restrictions than others.

Data released earlier shows that 38% of voters want the lockdowns to continue in their community. However, 57% disagree. Most voters believe rules and guidelines should be set locally rather than nationally.

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38% Want To Continue Lockdowns In Their Own Community, 57% Disagree

Posted on May 11, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters nationwide believe it would be appropriate to continue the lockdowns in their own neighborhood and community. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 57% disagree. That total includes 40% who believe it is time to ease the restrictions and 17% who believe it is time to end the lockdowns.

Forty-four percent (44%) of urban voters want to continue the lockdowns. That view is shared by 38% in the suburbs and 34% who live in rural areas.

The survey also found that 34% believe the rules and guidelines appropriate for their area be applied to the entire nation. However, 57% believe each community should establish its own guidelines in response to local conditions.

Forty-five percent (45%) of Democrats believe that the rules for their community should be applied to the entire nation. Just 30% of Independents and 24% of Republicans agree.

Most (55%) of those who want lockdowns to continue in their community believe the same rules and guidelines apply to the entire country. As for those who want to ease restrictions, 72% take the opposite view and believe each community should establish its own guidelines. Among the group who want to end lockdowns in their area, 77% think each community should decide for itself.

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26% Consider Trade Policies As a National Security Issue

Posted on May 8, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters nationwide consider trade policies to be primarily a national security issue. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 56% disagree and consider them primarily an economic issue. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure.

However, other data from the survey confirms that voters see more to trade policy than raw economics.

Most voters (58%) say ensuring that important materials are produced in the United States is a higher priority than keeping costs down. Just 28% say keeping costs down and promoting economic growth matters more.

The view that ensuring U.S. based production matters more than keeping costs down is shared by 67% of Republicans, 60% of Independent voters, and 49% of Democrats.

Fifty-six percent (56%) say they are willing to pay significantly higher costs on many goods to ensure that U.S. production capability. Twenty-five percent (25%) disagree.

Data released earlier shows that, following the pandemic, 70% of voters want to either reduce or eliminated trade with China.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 30-May 2, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 179 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

55% Favor Stricter Immigration Policies Going Forward, 32% Oppose

Posted on May 7, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking to the future, 55% of voters believe it will be appropriate for the United States to establish stricter immigration policies. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 32% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republican voters support a stricter immigration policy. Democrats, by a 53% to 31% margin, are opposed. Among Independents, 53% believe a stricter immigration policy will be appropriate while 29% disagree.

The need for a stricter immigration policy is supported by 69% of rural voters, 53% of suburban voters, and 49% or urban voters.

Data released earlier showed that 70% of voters favored a temporary ban on entry into the U.S. during the pandemic.

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Biden 46% Trump 39%

Posted on May 5, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

The latest Scott Rasmussen poll of 1,000 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by seven points– 46% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 8% are undecided.

Last week, Biden led by eight points. The week before that, he was up by nine. In late March, it was Biden 45% Trump 40%.

While the results suggest a close race in the fall, it is important to keep in mind the extraordinary circumstances of the coronavirus lockdowns. What happens in the coming months as American society re-opens is likely to have a significant impact on the race. In fact, it is likely that the way society is re-opened will be the decisive factor in November’s election.

Data released yesterday, showed that 49% of voters nationwide now fear the economic threat from the coronavirus more than the health threat. Forty-five percent (45%) take the opposite view and are more worried about the health threat. These numbers reflect a significant change over the past month. In late March, by a 55% to 38% margin, voters were more concerned about the health threat.

The survey also found that 26% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s an increase of three points from a week ago and ten points from a month ago. Forty-six percent (46%) believe the worst is yet to come. That’s down from 60% earlier in the month.

Voters over 65, by a 40% to 32% margin, believe the worst is behind us. Younger voters are more pessimistic.

Perceptions of whether the worst is behind us or is still to come have a significant impact on perceptions of the overall threat. Among those who believe the worst is behind us, 68% are more worried about the economic threat. As for those who believe the worst is still to come, 57% are more worried about the health threat.

These results are consistent with other data showing that people are looking to loosen some of the restrictions. Voters nationwide are evenly divided as to whether the lockdowns should continue. And, they have come to recognize that it’s not simply a question of stay home to stay safe or go out and get sick. Voters recognize that there are significant mental and physical health risks associated with ongoing lockdowns. Those who know the latest data are more likely to support easing lockdown restrictions.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work.

The president’s job approval rating has held steady at 44%.

Scott Rasmussen is now providing virtual briefings about the impact of the pandemic on business, politics, and American society. If you’d like Scott to provide a briefing for your company or organization, please contact Shawn Hanks.

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49% Fear Economic Threat More Than Health Threat From Coronavirus

Posted on May 4, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters nationwide now fear the economic threat from the coronavirus more than the health threat. A Scott Rasmussen national survey conducted over the past weekend (April 30-May 2) found that 45% take the opposite view and are more worried about the health threat.

These numbers reflect a significant change over the past month. In late March, by a 55% to 38% margin, voters were more concerned about the health threat.

By a 53% to 42% margin, men are more worried about the economic threat. Women are evenly divided.

There remains a gaping partisan divide. By a 73% to 21% margin, Republicans are more worried about the economic threat. Democrats, by a 64% to 31% margin, worry more about threats to health.

In late March, Independent voters were more worried about the health threat by a 55% to 34% margin. Now, they are evenly divided (49% say health, 45% economy).

These results are consistent with other data showing that people are looking for actions that may loosen some of the restrictions. Voters nationwide are evenly divided as to whether the lockdowns should continue. And, they have come to recognize that it’s not simply a question of stay home to stay safe or go out and get sick. Voters recognize that there are significant mental and physical health risks associated with ongoing lockdowns.

Additionally, 51% now favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work. Thirty-eight percent (38%) are opposed, and 10% are not sure. That question was framed in the context of the area that the respondents lived in. These numbers are not a call for a national rule, but a recognition that different dynamics exist in different communities.

The Healthcare Trade-offs of Continued Lockdowns

Posted on May 2, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

As America begins to reopen society, individual Americans have come to recognize that there are significant health risks involved in continuing the lockdowns associated with the coronavirus.

Polling I conducted last week (April 24-26, 2020) for FreedomWorks shows that 61% of voters nationwide are concerned about the health risks associated with prolonged isolation. An even larger share of voters — 73% — say that it’s important for their own mental well-being to be able to see people face-to-face again.

At one level, this is just an expression of common sense. Human beings are social creatures who suffer from a lack of social interaction. However, much of the awareness comes from firsthand experience.

· Thirty-three percent have close friends or family members who have been severely depressed during the lockdown.

· Twenty-three percent know of people close to them who have been drinking too much during the lockdown.

· Thirty-five percent have personally put on weight or experienced health-related problems associated with the stay-at-home orders.

In other words, voters recognize there are no easy answers. It’s not a question of stay home to stay safe or go out and get sick. There are difficult trade-offs involved and no options are completely safe.

The dynamics of these risks change over time. When conducted for a very short period of time, lockdowns and social isolation present very low levels of health risk. The longer the isolation, however, the higher the risk.

As a result, locking down society was clearly the lower-risk alternative when the pandemic began. Voters recognized that reality by strongly backing many government actions to shut down both travel and social interaction. Looking back on it now, 72% of voters continue to believe the aggressive government actions prevented the spread of the coronavirus and saved lives. Just 14% disagree.

Not only that, few believe the actions should have been taken only in large cities with severe outbreaks. Sixty-nine percent (69%) believe the lockdowns were appropriate throughout the country. In our highly polarized political era, it’s astounding to find 7 out of 10 voters agreeing on any type of government action.

But now, after experiencing and taking into account the risks of extended social isolation, voters are reevaluating the trade-offs. While 51% think it’s appropriate to continue the lockdowns, 47% think it’s time to either ease the restrictions (36%) or end the lockdowns entirely (11%). The FreedomWorks data shows that some of the differences of opinion are actually based upon the different realities that voters are experiencing. Most urban voters (58%) want to continue the lockdowns while most rural voters (55%) think it’s time to ease restrictions or end the lockdowns.

Looking a bit further down the road, people see the risks of continued isolation growing. Today 36% believe that continuing the lockdowns poses greater health risks than easing restrictions. Another 18% believe that will be the case if lockdowns continue for 60 more days.

In other words, a combined 54% of the nation’s voters believe that 60 more days of lockdowns will present a greater health risk than easing lockdown restrictions. At the other extreme, just 21% believe that continuing the lockdowns for another couple of months will be the safer approach.

As voters have experienced and considered the health risks associated with social isolation and lockdowns, scientists have been gathering additional information about the coronavirus itself. The evidence indicates that voters are factoring this data into their understanding of the trade-offs involved.

Specifically, 76% of voters are aware that recent data has shown that far more people have been infected with the coronavirus than previously thought. Voter thoughts about when and how to reopen society are being made with awareness that COVID-19 is extremely contagious.

At the same time, just 44% are aware that the latest data shows that people who get the coronavirus are less likely to die than previously thought. That decline weighs heavily on the trade-offs involved. When people believe the fatality rate of the contagion is higher and the costs of lockdowns are lower, they are more likely to embrace the lockdowns. But as the costs of social isolation increases and the data shows the fatality rate to be lower, the equation shifts.

Not surprisingly, therefore, those who are aware of the latest scientific data favor easing lockdown restrictions by a 66% to 33% margin. Those who mistakenly believe the fatality rate has not fallen favor continuing the lockdowns by a 71% to 28% margin.

For those who believe in America’s commitment to self-governance, this is encouraging news. Even in the midst of a crisis like the coronavirus pandemic, individual Americans are weighing the difficult trade-offs based upon the underlying facts.

In the coming months, we will learn many more facts as individual cities and states take different approaches to reopening society. The choices will be difficult. Some approaches will work better than others and some will be more appropriate in one part of the country rather than others. As individual Americans consider it all, they will swiftly guide the nation towards the best practices for safely reopening society.

36% Would Turn In Neighbors for Violating Social Distancing Rules

Posted on May 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

What do you do if your neighbor has 15-20 people over and it’s in violation of stay-at-home orders? A JustTheNews.com survey found that 36% of voters would report their neighbors to the police. Forty-three percent (43%) would not.

Suburban and Urban voters are evenly divided on the question. However, by a 53% to 28% margin, rural voters would not report their neighbors.

There is a huge partisan difference. By a 44% to 31% margin, a plurality of Democrats would turn their neighbors in. By a 60% to 25% margin, Republicans would not. Independents are evenly divided.

Women are also evenly divided. Men, by a 51% to 32% margin, would not report their neighbors to the police.

See crosstab results.

Generic Ballot: Democrats 43% Republicans 36%

Posted on April 29, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

April 29, 2020–If the election for Congress were held today, 43% of voters nationwide say they would vote for the Democrat from their district while 36% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 4% would prefer some other candidate and 18% are not sure.

Republicans lead by six points among men, Democrats by 20 among women.

Last month, a Generic Ballot survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found Democrats with a nine-point lead: 48% to 39%. Last week, the numbers showed the Democrats with an 11-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot: 46% to 35%. It is possible that the numbers are shifting due to the dynamics of the pandemic and other issues. However, it is perhaps even more likely that these shifts reflect little more than statistical noise. Compared to the data from March, last week’s results showed the Democratic lead 2 points higher and this week’s numbers show that lead to be 2-points smaller.

All the results are similar to the actual eight point advantage the Democrats won in the 2018 mid-term elections.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 23-25, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 272 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

33% Believe Government Response to Pandemic Has Not Gone Far Enough

Posted on April 28, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters believe that, in responding to the pandemic, government officials have not gone far enough. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 20% believe they have gone too far. A plurality–41%–believe the balance has been about right.

These numbers reflect a significant shift since late March. At that time, 41% believed government officials had not gone far enough while just 14% believed they had gone too far.

Forty percent (40%) of Republicans believe the balance has been about right along with 43% of Democrats and 38% of Independents.

However, beneath that apparent common ground, there are significant partisan differences.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Republicans believe the government actions have gone to far while only 18% say not far enough.
Democrats see it much differently–44% say not far enough while just 8% believe they have already gone too far.
Among Independents, 34% say not far enough and 19% say too far.

Other data shows a similar trend as people are looking for actions that may loosen some of the restrictions. Fifty-one percent (51%) favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work. Thirty-eight percent (38%) are opposed, and 10% are not sure. That question was framed in the context of the area that the respondents lived in. These numbers are not a call for a national rule, but a recognition that different dynamics exist in different communities.

Currently, 23% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, an increase of seven points over the past two weeks.

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Biden 46% Trump 38%

Posted on April 28, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

April 28, 2020– The latest Scott Rasmussen poll of 1,000 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 46% to 38%. Six percent (6%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 9% are undecided.

That’s little changed from a week ago when a poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen for JustTheNews.com showed Biden with a nine-point advantage. In that poll, Biden led 49% to 40%. Interestingly, support for both candidates dropped a bit in the most recent poll.

In late March, it was Biden 45% Trump 40%.

While the results suggest a close race in the fall, it is important to keep in mind the extraordinary circumstances of the coronavirus lockdowns. What happens in the coming months as American society re-opens is likely to have a significant impact on the race. Currently, 23% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, an increase of seven points over the past two weeks.

Thirty-three percent (33%) believe the government has not yet gone far enough in responding to the pandemic. That figure is down eight points since late March.

Other polling shows that 51% of American voters favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work. Thirty-eight percent (38%) are opposed, and 10% are not sure. That question was framed in the context of the area that the respondents lived in. These numbers are not a call for a national rule, but a recognition that different dynamics exist in different communities.

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23% Believe Worst of Pandemic Is Behind Us, Up 7 Points in Two Weeks

Posted on April 27, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters nationwide now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s up seven points from just 16% two weeks ago.

A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 49% believe the worst is still to come. That’s down 11 points from 60% in the earlier survey.

The survey also found that, if infected by the coronavirus, 24% of Registered Voters nationwide are not confident they could receive appropriate medical treatment. That’s down from 30% two weeks ago. The number who are Not at All Confident about access to treatment has fallen from 10% to 6%.

The partisan divides remain very significant and most of the increased confidence comes from Republicans.

Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats believe the worst is yet to come, down from 72% earlier. Among Independent voters, 52% now believe the worst days remain ahead of us (down from 58%).

However, Republicans perceive things much differently. By a 43% to 35% margin, a plurality of GOP voters now believe the worst is behind us. Two weeks ago, just 28% of Republicans thought the worst was behind us. Forty-nine percent (49%) believed the worst was still to come.

Data released earlier showed that 22% believe our nation’s response to the pandemic would have been better if private insurance companies were banned and all health coverage was provided by the federal government. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% believe things would be worse.

Overall, 34% of voters at least somewhat favor the idea of banning private insurance companies to create a national health care system. Fifty-four percent (54%) are opposed.

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46% More Worried About Pandemic’s Economic Threat Than Health Threat

Posted on April 21, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters are more worried about the economic threat posed by the coronavirus pandemic than the health threat. However, the latest Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 49% are more worried about health issues. The survey was conducted this past weekend (April 16-18).

Those figures reflect a modest increase in concern about the economic threat.

Last month, just 38% were more worried about the economic threat while 53% primarily feared the health threat.

The partisan divide on the issue is sharp. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Republicans are more worried about the economic threat while 67% of Democrats are more concerned about the health threat. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Data released earlier showed that, when the lockdown ends, 34% of voters expect the U.S. economy to bounce back quickly. However, a 45% have the opposite view and believe the nation will suffer through a long recession. There’s a similar partisan divide on that question, though the differences are not as sharp.

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 16-18, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 167 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Ballot: Democrats 46% Republicans 35%

Posted on April 21, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Democrats currently enjoy an 11-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey shows that 46% of voters would cast their ballot for the Democrat from their District while 35% prefer the Republican. Four percent (4%) would prefer some other candidate and 15% are not sure.

Among those most interested in the election–and presumably the most likely to vote–the race is a bit closer. Among these voters, the Democrats enjoy a seven-point advantage (48% to 41%).

In the key demographic group of suburban women, Democrats lead by a 51% to 31% margin.

A Generic Ballot survey conducted last month by Scott Rasmussen found Democrats with a nine-point lead: 48% to 39%.

The Polls Weren’t Wrong in 2016–But The Analysis of the Polls Was Horrible

Posted on April 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Contrary to popular myths, the national political polls in 2016 were very accurate. According to the Real Clear Politics average, Hillary Clinton was projected to win the popular vote by 3.3 percentage points and she actually won it by 2.1 percentage points. Ten of the last twelve national polls released were within two percentage points of the actual margin. One of the others overestimated Clinton’s margin by four points and one underestimated it by four points.

That’s about as accurate a projection as you could hope for!

However, while the polling was good, the analysis of the polling was not.

Many in the media and political worlds simply could not imagine a Clinton loss. Some looked at the polling, noted the margin of error, and assumed the Democratic nominee would win by far more than three percentage points. Some thought she could win a few traditionally Republican states while few imagined the reverse could happen.

The problem was not the polls, but the analysis.

This failure of polling analysis was not supported by the underlying data. Heading into Election Day, the Real Clear Politics projections showed that Clinton was clearly favored to win just 203 of the needed 270 Electoral College votes. Donald Trump was favored to win 164 and an astounding 171 were in the Toss-Up category. Reviewing the toss-up states at that time, I noted publicly that it was fairly easy to envision how Trump could reach 263 Electoral College votes.

That reality should have dented the overwhelming confidence of a Clinton victory expressed in the media and political worlds. Polling data showed a race close enough that a surprise in a single traditionally Democratic state could elect Donald Trump. But that possibility was largely ignored in media coverage of the race.

On Election Day, of course, then-candidate Trump stunned the political world by capturing three traditionally Democratic states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Once again, the surprise was more a failure of analysis than public polling. In Pennsylvania, the polling averages showed Clinton ahead by just 1.9 percentage points. In Michigan, she was up just 3.4 points. Both results were clearly in toss-up range. Additionally, in both states, the final public poll released showed Trump ahead.

The only true polling misfire was in Wisconsin, where Clinton was projected to win by 6.5 percentage points and Trump won by just under a point.

The bottom line is that the actual public polling in 2016 was far better than the pundit’s analysis of that polling data.

69% Believe China’s Disinformation Made Pandemic Worse; 10% Believe China Telling Truth Now

Posted on April 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters believe the Chinese government made the global pandemic worse by withholding important research and releasing false information. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 8% disagree with that assessment while 23% are not sure.

The belief that China’s untruthfulness made things worse is shared by 83% of Republicans, 65% of Independents, and 60% of Democrats.

The survey also found that just 10% consider information the Chinese government is now releasing to be truthful and reliable. Thirty-nine percent (39%) believe it is not while 50% are not sure.

Most Republicans (57%) say information coming from China today is not truthful and reliable. Most Democrats (62%) and Independents (51%) are not sure.

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70% Favor Temporary Ban on Entry Into United States

Posted on April 20, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy percent (70%) of Registered Voters believe the federal government place a temporary ban on allowing people from any other country to enter the United States. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 34% who believe that even Americans living abroad should have to wait until the pandemic is over before returning.

The temporary ban is supported by 82% of Republicans, 66% of Independents, and 64% of Democrats.

Among those who Strongly Approve of President Trump, 84% support the ban. Among those who Strongly Disapprove of the president, 57% share that same view.

Overall, among all voters, just 15% oppose a temporary ban. In no measured demographic group does opposition reach 25%.

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After Lockdown, 34% Expect Economy to Bounce Back Quickly

Posted on April 18, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

When the lockdown ends, 34% of voters expect the U.S. economy to bounce back quickly. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 45% have the opposite view and believe the nation will suffer through a long recession. Twenty-one percent (21%) are not sure.

By a 48% to 34% margin, Republicans expect the economy to bounce back quickly. Democrats, by a 56% to 24% margin, take the opposite view. Among independents, 43% expect a long recession while 33% think a quick recovery is likely.

It’s important to note that these dynamics are broadly consistent with pre-pandemic attitudes. Republicans were far more optimistic about the economy, Democrats more pessimistic, and Independent voters in between.

As for the prospects when the lockdown is lifted, white voters are evenly divided. Black and Hispanic voters are more pessimistic.

Investors are evenly divided–42% expect the economy to bounce back quickly while 38% think a long recession is coming.

Just 31% of non-investors expect a quick recovery while 50% disagree.

Data released earlier showed that 60% of all voters expect the worst is yet to come.

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 9-11, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 217 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The pandemic is shaking up everything. Government shouldn’t be an exception

Posted on April 15, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Last week, I wrote about how the pandemic-induced experiment in home schooling will shake up our system of education. By unleashing the creativity of great teachers, the next wave of innovations will give teachers and parents more control over how and what their students learn.

This week, I’ll focus on a similar change coming to the larger political realm.

In Federalist 8, Alexander Hamilton wrote that “Safety from external danger is the most powerful director of national conduct. Even the ardent love of liberty will, after a time, give way to its dictates. … To be more safe, they at length become willing to run the risk of being less free.”

Hamilton’s clear appreciation of human nature is now visible in every day’s news coverage during the pandemic. There is broad public support for lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, and other measures that would have been unimaginable just a few months ago. Who could have conceived of a scenario where political leaders would be allowed to define which businesses are essential and which are not?

However, when the crisis is over, many politicians will resist giving up the emergency powers they enjoyed exercising. Even worse, some will see the pandemic as a breakthrough moment when voters finally appreciate the value of a powerful government.

For example, New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio has expressed his preference for a system where “the city government would determine (for) every single plot of land, how development would proceed.” He thought most voters “would like to have the city government be able to determine which building goes where, how high it will be, who gets to live in it, what the rent will be.”

When the pandemic is over, these attitudes will pit citizens who want a restoration of freedom against politicians who don’t want to give up their newfound powers.

In the larger sense, though, the pandemic is merely bringing to a head a battle that has been brewing for decades. Since the 1970s, our political system has been growing more centralized with ever increasing authority being vested in a regulatory state. The regulators are treated as experts — many are — and are generally unaccountable to any external checks and balances.

The regulatory state promised to make our society safer, but it required giving up individual freedoms and our commitment to self-governance.

Additionally, while the political system has been growing more centralized, America’s culture has been moving in the opposite direction. Following the invention of the microchip and what I call the Great Turnaround, everything in America has been decentralizing —everything that is except our political system.

The disconnect between a decentralizing society and a centralizing government is simply not sustainable. It’s also the reason that so much of our political dialogue seems so irrelevant or toxic. Twenty-first century politics is simply out of synch with twenty-first century America.

How did we get to this point? How did this disconnect come to be? How did the American people come to accept a regulatory state that is at odds with our founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance?

The short answer is that, in the immediate aftermath of World War II, the American people trusted their government as never before or since. Not only did the government win the war, a long economic boom followed. The trust faded quickly, but not before the Nixon administration put in place the foundations of today’s regulatory state.

The imposition of the regulatory state created the central political conflict of our time. It’s a conflict between our nation’s founding ideals and our current form of governance.

The pandemic is highlighting this disconnect. People see governments exercising draconian power, but they do not trust the governments. They are willing to accept and support such decisions during an emergency but can’t wait for the emergency to end.

When the pandemic is defeated, the defeat of the regulatory state will follow. Hamilton’s words of warning are certainly appropriate, but the American people are not yet ready to give up their freedom for promises of security.

50% Say Top Priority Should Be Letting People Gather in Homes

Posted on April 15, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

There has been a lot of recent debate about how and when to re-open the U.S. economy. However, data from the latest Scott Rasmussen survey suggests that voters are interested in a broader discussion about how to re-open American society. The survey asked voters to prioritize the re-opening of various activities when the lockdown ends. For each activity, voters were asked whether it should happen right away or if it should be a second or third priority.

Fifty percent (50%) said that allowing people to gather in small groups at someone’s home should happen right away.
Thirty-five percent (35%) said that churches and other religious gatherings should be opened right away.
Re-opening retail stores was also seen as a top priority by 35%.
Thirty-one percent (31%) said the same about schools.
Just 21% thought re-opening bars and restaurants should happen right away.
Only 14% said the same about major league sports events and stadium concerts.

These results suggest that voters are interested in the broader questions of re-opening society, rather than narrow concerns about the economy. That’s not surprising since 23% say that the biggest impact they’ve felt from the pandemic is boredom, depression and isolation. Thirty percent (30%) cited loss of income as the biggest impact.

Additionally, even the re-opening of retail stores may reflect something more than economic concerns. Many people have experienced difficulties obtaining needed supplies during the pandemic—everything from food to health care items. Opening retail stores may be seen as a way to help address those concerns.

There are significant partisan differences in priorities. The most dramatic concerns the re-opening of churches and religious services. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Republicans believe that should be a top priority while only 29% of Democrats agree.

These results come from a survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 9-11, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 217 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

On Pandemic, 60% Believe Worst is Yet to Come, 16% Think It’s Behind Us

Posted on April 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

In terms of the pandemic, 60% of voters believe the worst is yet to come. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 16% believe the worst is behind us and 24% are not sure.

As on just about everything these days, there is a significant partisan divide. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democrats believe the worst is yet to come, a view shared by just 49% of Republicans. Independent voters are in the middle with 58% believing the worst days remain ahead of us.

Overall, 34% of voters at least somewhat favor the idea of banning private insurance companies to create a national health care system. Fifty-four percent (54%) are opposed.

If infected by the coronavirus, 30% of Registered Voters nationwide are not confident they could receive appropriate medical treatment. That total includes 20% who are Not Very Confident and 10% who are Not at All Confident about access to treatment.

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Worst Is Still To Come: 60%

Behind Us: 16%

Not Sure: 24%

34% Favor National Health Care System That Eliminates Private Health Insurance

Posted on April 13, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 34% of voters favor a national health care system that replaces private insurance companies. A Scott Rasmussen national poll found that 54% are opposed to such a plan. Those totals included 14% who Strongly Favor the approach and 38% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans are opposed along with most (54%) Independent voters. However, by a 48% to 39% margin, Democrats lean in favor of the concept.

It’s important to note that most voters (53%) favor the vague concept of a national health care system. Just 37% are opposed.

However, support falls significantly when the possibility of banning private health insurance is mentioned. One reason for this is that 66% of voters rate their current health insurance coverage as good or excellent. Seventy-two percent (72%) are just as upbeat about the medical care they personally receive. Given these realities, it is very difficult to see how any plan that forces people to give up their current insurance will be politically viable.

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 2-5, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 198 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

45% Rate US Health Care System as Good/Excellent; 22% Say Poor

Posted on April 7, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of Registered Voters rate the U.S. Health Care System as Good or Excellent while 22% rate it as poor. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 30% believe our health care system is merely Fair while 3% are not sure.

The survey also found that 72% rate the medical care they personally receive as good or excellent. Just 6% say the quality of their medical care is poor.

Sixty-six percent (66%) rate their insurance coverage as good or excellent. while 11% say poor.

There are large partisan divides on the question about the U.S. health care system. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans say it’s good or excellent while just 8% say poor. Democrats are evenly divided–32% say good or excellent, 29% say poor. As for Independent voters, 40% rate the health care system as good or excellent while 28% rate it as poor.

Partisan differences are much more modest on questions of personal medical care and insurance coverage.

Data released earlier showed that 22% believe our nation’s response to the coronavirus pandemic would have been better with a national health care system run by the federal government. Thirty-eight percent (38%) believe that would have made things worse.

Other data showed that, if infected by the coronavirus, 30% are not confident they would receive appropriate medical care.

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22% Say Response to Pandemic Would Have Been Better With National Healthcare System

Posted on April 7, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Twenty-two percent (22%) of Registered Voters believe our nation’s response to the pandemic would have been better if private insurance companies were banned and all health coverage was provided by the federal government. However, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 38% believe things would be worse.

Eighteen percent (18%) don’t believe things would be all that different while 21% are not sure.

In just about every measured demographic group, a plurality believes things would be worse with such a national healthcare system in place. The only exceptions are among Democrats and political liberals. Democrats, by a 36% to 21% margin, believe a national healthcare system would have produced a better outcome. Liberals, by a 36% to 20% margin, share the same sentiment.

Republicans strongly disagree. Sixty-one percent (61%) of GOP voters believe a national healthcare system would have made things worse. Only 11% say better. The numbers are similar among conservatives (64% to 10%).

Nineteen percent (19%) of independent voters believe things would have been better while 35% say worse

A plurality of all age groups believe things would have been worse, but the belief is much stronger among voters over 55.

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30% Not Confident They Could Receive Medical Treatment for Coronavirus

Posted on April 6, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

At the other end of the spectrum, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found 66% are confident they could receive appropriate treatment. That total includes 27% who are Very Confident and 37% who are Somewhat Confident.

Confidence is lowest in urban areas and highest in the suburbs.

Among those living in Urban areas, 58% have at least some confidence that they could receive appropriate treatment while 37% do not have such confidence.

In the suburbs, 70% are confident while 26% are not.

As for Americans living in rural areas, 66% have confidence that they could receive treatment while 31% are not.

Republicans have more confidence than Democrats or Independents.

Those with a high level of interest in the presidential election are more confident than others

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Just the News and Scott Rasmussen Announce Polling Partnership

Posted on April 2, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just the News and independent pollster Scott Rasmussen announced Thursday a partnership to produce polling that measures sentiments on issues resonating with everyday Americans outside the Beltway.

The year-long partnership with Rasmussen’s RMG Research will provide Just the News readers a fresh daily poll each Monday through Friday from a sample of 1,200 registered voters reached by phone and online. The polling will provide insights about political and policy issues facing everyday Americans.

Rasmussen said the partnership will help illuminate the difference between how voters perceive topics and the way they are discussed in official Washington.

“I’m very excited to be working with JustTheNews.com,” Rasmussen said. “When it comes to issues, we will always strive to avoid using inside-the-beltway terminology and ask questions in a language that makes sense to everyday Americans.”

John Solomon, the CEO and Editor in Chief of Just the News, said the collaboration is a natural extension of the one-month-old news venture’s commitment to cover Washington for those who live outside it.

“Scott Rasmussen has long been one of the country’s most influential pollsters, able to spot and keenly analyze trends in real America long before others,” Solomon said. “We are thrilled he is partnering with us on this project to measure American sentiments about the issues that matter on a daily basis.”

A best-selling author, co-founder of ESPN and Rasmussen Reports (which Rasmussen departed from in 2013), Rasmussen currently serves as editor-at-large for Ballotpedia. He also runs his own Web site ScottRasmussen.com.

Rasmussen said the current polling industry does a “great job” on elections and fundamental measures of the political environment, yet the analysis and reporting of these factors, including during the 2016 presidential election, is lacking.

“The built-in belief that Trump couldn’t win caused many pundits to ignore the real possibility of an Electoral College upset. So our challenge will be to look carefully at what the data is telling us,” Rasmussen said. “Many people believe the polls were wrong in 2016, but that’s not the case.

“The Real Clear Politics polling average showed Clinton winning the popular vote by 3 points and she won by 2. The state polling was also better than is commonly believed. Two of the biggest surprises on election night were Pennsylvania and Michigan. The Real Clear Average showed those races within the margin of error and the last poll in each showed Trump ahead. Wisconsin was the only state with a true public polling miss.”

Innovation has been a hallmark of Rasmussen’s career. In 1978, the then-new technology of satellite communications dramatically reduced the cost of sending a broadcast signal around the nation. Building upon that opportunity, Rasmussen and his father, Bill, founded ESPN, the cable sports network.

In the 1990s, the birth of the Internet provided the unique opportunity to capitalize on another ground-breaking technology. Rasmussen launched his first website in 1994 and became the first pollster to offer data directly to the public rather than filtered through a network reporter.

It was also at this time that Rasmussen saw the potential for the concept of automated polling and ultimately revolutionized the polling industry. In just over a decade, Rasmussen’s work attracted more Google searches than the long-established industry leader – Gallup.

His most recent book, “The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not,” was published in 2018 by the Sutherland Institute.

The book explains Rasmussen’s optimism about our nation’s future, despite his deep pessimism over our broken political system. Co-founder of No Labels, Mark McKinnon, said the book features “some of the freshest, most inspiring thinking I’ve read in years There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, and Rasmussen has found it.”

51% Want Stricter Security on Future Trade and Travel With China

Posted on April 2, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Registered Voters believe the United States should require stricter security on future trade and travel with China. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 27% disagree and 22% are not sure.

By a 71% to 12% margin, Republicans think stricter security is needed. Among Independent voters, 48% want stricter security while 28% disagree. Democrats are evenly divided–37% say yes to stricter security and 40% say no.

Overall, 42% of Registered Voters believe that we need stricter security on future trade and travel with ALL nations. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree and 25% are not sure.

Data released earlier showed that 47% believe China is primarily responsible for the coronavirus pandemic.

Looking ahead, should the United States require stricter security on future trade and travel with China?

51% Yes

27% No

22% Not Sure

Okay… what about other nations? should the United States require stricter security on future trade and travel with all other nations?

42% Yes

34% No

25% Not Sure

The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 26-28, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Approximately 72% of the survey respondents were selected at random from lists of Registered Voters. The remainder were selected through Random Digital Engagement. Most were contacted online while 247 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Coronavirus Polling in Utah

Posted on April 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll found that Utah voters think the federal government was slow to react to coronavirus, but give high marks to President Trump.

The survey also showed how the virus has impacted the life of just about every Utah voter in some way.

The survey of 979 Registered Voters was conducted by me from March 23-28. It’s part of a monthly polling series.

Biden 45% Trump 40%

Posted on April 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the presidential election were held today, 45% of Registered Voters would vote for Democrat Joe Biden while 40% prefer Republican Donald Trump.

However, the survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 70% of Trump’s supporters have a high level of interest in the election. Just 61% of Biden’s voters say the same. Among those who have a high level of interest–and are most likely to vote–it’s Biden 47% Trump 46%.

Among all Registered voters living in Urban areas, Biden leads by a 60% to 23% margin. Trump leads by 19 points (50% to 31%) among Rural voters. The candidates are essential tied among Suburban voters with Biden at 44% and Trump at 43%.

Among Suburban voters with a high level of interest in the election, it’s Trump 48% Biden 47%. Biden’s margin among Urban voters slips to 32 points among those with a high level of interest (61% to 29%). Trump’s lead among interested Rural voters increases to 32 points (62% to 30%).

The survey also explored attitudes on the coronavirus pandemic.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters worry that government officials will re-open businesses too soon. Just 29% take the opposite view and fear they will wait too long.
Additionally, 45% of voters expect the lockdown to last another month or two. Thirty-seven percent (37%) think it will last for three months or longer.
While most (53%) worry primarily about the health crisis, 38% are more worried about the economic impact of the pandemic.

On just about every question there is a wide partisan divide.

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55% Fear That Government Officials Will Re-Open Businesses Too Soon

Posted on April 1, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters worry that government officials will re-open businesses too soon. A national survey by Scott Rasmussen found that just 29% take the opposite view and fear they will wait too long. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

Data released earlier shows that 45% of voters expect the lockdown to last another month or two. Thirty-seven percent (37%) think it will last for three months or longer. While most (53%) worry primarily about the health crisis, 38% are more worried about the economic impact of the pandemic.

On just about every question there is a wide partisan divide. By a 72% to 15% margin, Democrats worry that the government is likely to re-open things too soon rather than wait too long. Republicans lean in the opposite direction–46% believe government officials will wait too long while 36% think they will re-open things too quickly. Independent voters, by a 56% to 28% margin, fear that businesses will be allowed to re-open too soon.

Other data from the survey found that 41% believe government officials have not gone far enough in shutting things down. Thirty-eight percent (38%) believe the balance has been about right while 14% believe they have gone too far. These results are consistent with strong support for actions taken so far–everything from the ban on travel from China to canceling sports events.

So far, most Democrats (58%) believe government officials have not gone far enough. Most Republicans (52%) believe the balance has been about right. Independent voters are evenly divided (42% Not Far Enough, 34% About Right).

In responding to the coronavirus pandemic, have government officials gone too far in shutting things down, not far enough, or has the balance been about right?

41% Not Far Enough

38% Balance About Right

14% Gone Too Far

7% Not Sure

Which worries you the most—that government officials will re-open businesses too soon or that they will wait too long?

55% Too Soon

29% Wait Too Long

16% Not Sure

38% Fear Economic Impact of Pandemic More Than Health Concerns

Posted on March 31, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters are more worried about the economic threat posed by the coronavirus than the health threat. However, a national survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 53% are more worried about the health issues.

Republicans, by a 60% to 33% margin, are more worried about the economic impact. Democrats, by a 70% to 22% margin, are more worried about the health threat. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Independent voters are most concerned about the health issues, but 34% take the opposite view.

In terms of their own life, 46% are Very Worried the coronavirus will cause serious economic problems for their immediate family.

Thirty-six percent (36%) are Very Worried it will cause serious health issues.

How worried are you that the Coronavirus will cause serious health issues for you or a member of your immediate family?

36% Very Worried

43% Somewhat Worried

16% Not Very Worried

5% Not at All Worried

How worried are you that the Coronavirus will cause serious economic problems for you or a member of your immediate family?

46% Very Worried

38% Somewhat Worried

13% Not Very Worried

3% Not at All Worried

For the United States as a whole—which worries you the most about the coronavirus: the health threat or the economic threat?

53% Health Threat

38% Economic Threat

8% Not Sure

47% Believe China To Blame For Pandemic

Posted on March 31, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters believe that China is primarily to blame for the coronavirus pandemic. A national survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 34% disagree and 19% are not sure.

The survey also found that 27% of voters think it’s at least somewhat likely that the Chinese government intentionally created and released the coronavirus.

As with just about everything in the news, there is a massive partisan divide. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans believe that China is primarily responsible for the pandemic. That view is shared by 41% of Independent voters and 30% of Democrats.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Republicans believe it’s likely the virus was intentionally released by the Chinese government. Just 23% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree.

Is China primarily to blame for the coronavirus pandemic?

47% Yes

34% No

19% Not Sure

How likely is it that the Chinese government intentionally created and released the coronavirus?

13% Very likely

14% Somewhat likely

9% Not Very Likely

6% Not at All Likely

5% Not Sure

53% Not Asked

NOTE: This question was asked only of those who believed China was primarily to blame for the pandemic.

America may not be the same after coronavirus. That may be a good thing

Posted on March 31, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

NOTE: This column was originally published in the Deseret News.

Last week, I began to explore what life will be like when the coronavirus lockdown finally ends.

Initially, people will crave a return to in-person social gatherings and some sense of normalcy. Still, when the stay-at-home orders and mandatory business closings are lifted, the reopening of society will proceed cautiously. Guided by a mix of joy and fear, some people will jump right back into old routines while others will take it more slowly. Many, without consciously thinking about it, will never again attend events with huge crowds or ride a crowded subway.

Some businesses will open their doors and offices faster than others. Sadly, many will never reopen. Returning workers will learn new routines and procedures to ensure a safe and healthy work environment, especially for businesses that deal directly with consumers.

Politicians will debate what sort of international trade and travel restrictions might be appropriate going forward. What kind of security can protect against an invisible virus? Should the new restrictions apply only to China? Or to all nations? It will soon become clear that the pandemic has reset discussions on just about every political issue.

Still, it won’t be long before a new normal sets in. Our culture and lifestyle adapt so quickly to new realities that we soon forget what came before. If you doubt that’s true, consider the phrase social distancing. A month or so ago, hardly anybody had heard of it. Now it’s a part of daily conversation.

The realities of social distancing have forced us to learn new ways of working, playing and building community together. Millions of older Americans have joined virtual gatherings for the first time. Untold numbers of parents are — for the first time — providing a form of home-schooling. Churches are finding ways to serve their flock without getting together in person on Sunday mornings. The list could go on and on.

These new routines will never replace in-person gatherings — humans need such contact for their physical and mental well-being. But, when the crisis is over, the new approaches will not wither away or disappear. Americans will not unlearn what they are learning today. Instead, they will use what they have learned in ways that will alter the frequency and purpose of our face-to-face encounters with others.

A friend of mine works with a large team that has been forced to telecommute during the current crisis. It’s going so well that he’s now thinking of working from Florida for a month next winter. Following the experience of the past month, he figures his boss will have no reason to object. My friend values the regular, in-person interactions with his co-workers and will have plenty of it for most of the year. But the month in Florida will also give him more time with family and friends in a pleasant setting.

Millions of Americans will do the same and seamlessly adopt what they’ve learned during the lockdown to make changes in their daily life. After a while, it won’t seem different at all. It will just be a new normal.

Though the novelty of our new routines will quickly wear off, the impact of those changes will bring about massive social disruption. To take just one example, when my friend and his team telecommute more regularly, their company will need less office space. That seemingly minor change will ripple through the economies of major cities.

For two centuries leading up to the 1970s, the trend was for everything in America to get bigger, more centralized and more homogenized.
After the ’70s, however, cultural trends moved in the opposite direction with everything becoming more niche-oriented, decentralized and personalized.

It is hard to overstate the significance of this cultural turnaround. “The devices and connectivity so essential to modern life put unprecedented p ower in the hands of every individual,” according to Harvard’s Nicco Mele. This is “a radical redistribution of power that our traditional institutions don’t and perhaps can’t understand.” As if that wasn’t enough, he adds, “Radical connectivity is toxic to traditional power structures.”

This decentralizing force has been transforming our society for decades. Many institutions and industries have already adapted or disappeared. Following the pandemic, the scale and pace of change will increase dramatically.

In the coming weeks, I’ll look at how our decentralizing culture is poised to bring about massive changes to our health care, education and political systems.

While transitions are always unsettling, we have reason to be optimistic about the future. That’s because this new era has put “unprecedented power in the hands of every individual.” That’s a good thing!

Taking power away from the few and giving it to the many is right in line with our nation’s founding ideals. From a pragmatic viewpoint, it means more people will have a greater ability to work together and create a better world.

Scott Rasmussen is an American political analyst and digital media entrepreneur. He is the author of “The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not.”

45% Expect Lockdown to Last A Month or Two

Posted on March 31, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters nationwide believe it will be a month or two before most businesses re-open and social activity resumes. A national survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 37% think it will take three months or longer. At the other end of the spectrum, 13% believe the lockdown will end within a couple of weeks.

There is a significant partisan divide on the question. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Republicans expect business and social activity to resume within a couple of months. Just 44% of Democrats are that optimistic.

Most Democrats (51%) believe at least three months will pass before things re-open. Just 23% of Republicans agree.

As for Independent voters, 57% expect social activity to resume within a couple of months. Thirty-six percent (36%) believe it will take three months or longer.

How long do you think it will be before most businesses re-open and social activity resumes?

13% A couple of weeks

45% A month or two

29% Three to six months

6% Six Months to a year

2% More than a year

6% Not Sure

89% Support Ban on Travel from China

Posted on March 16, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

A One America News survey found strong support for early actions taken by governments and private companies to address the coronavirus outbreak.

Seventy-three percent (73%) Strongly Approve of the ban on travel from China, higher than support for any other action.
* The lowest level of support was found for suspending college basketball tournaments and professional sports events. Still, 51% Strongly Approve.
In all cases, approval is higher among older people than younger voters.
In the case of the travel bans, support is higher among Republicans than other voters. However, a majority in all parties support the travel bans.
* Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans Strongly Approve of the ban on travel from China. That view is shared by 66% of Democrats and 66% of Independent voters.
* The ban on European travel earns Strong Approval from 77% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 54% of other voters.

SUMMARY OF VIEWS TOWARDS VARIOUS ACTIONS

	APPROVE (Strongly)	DISAPPROVE
China Travel Ban	89% (73%)	10%
European Travel Ban	84% (61%)	13%
Encouraging Work From Home	89% (63%)	10%
Suspending Sports Events	75% (51%)	20%
State Bans of Large Gatherings	81% (54%)	16%
Co-payment Waivers	90% (72%)	9%
Campus Closures	82% (57%)	15%

Seventy-three percent (73%) Strongly Approve of the ban on travel from China, higher than support for any other action.
* The lowest level of support was found for suspending college basketball tournaments and professional sports events. Still, 51% Strongly Approve.
In all cases, approval is higher among older people than younger voters.
In the case of the travel bans, support is higher among Republicans than other voters. However, a majority in all parties support the travel bans.
* Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans Strongly Approve of the ban on travel from China. That view is shared by 66% of Democrats and 66% of Independent voters.
* The ban on European travel earns Strong Approval from 77% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 54% of other voters.

The survey was conducted by Scott Rasmussen.

Survey respondents were randomly selected from a comprehensive panel of potential participants. Field work was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the final results were lightly weighted by gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of the nation at large.

ScottRasmussen.com Data in WSJ Best of the Web Column

Posted on July 11, 2019 | by Scott Rasmussen

ScottRasmussen.com polling data was featured in the Wall Street Journal’s Best of the Web column today.

The column explores whether or not the Democratic presidential candidates are moving too far to the left.

“Today pollster Scott Rasmussen shares results suggesting Democrats may not want to fall so hard for illegal immigration:”

Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters nationwide believe the United States has no right to decide who is eligible to enter the country. They believe anyone who wants to live in the United States should be allowed entry. However, 79% disagree and take the opposite view.

This is consistent with a vast collection of survey data showing that eight-out-of-ten voters believe illegal immigration is bad for the United States (eight-out-of-ten also believe that legal immigration is good for the country).

A Farewell to Pat Caddell

Posted on February 17, 2019 | by Scott Rasmussen

Legendary pollster Pat Caddell passed away on Saturday at the far too young age of 68. Many pollsters of my generation looked up to Pat when they were getting started. We all followed trails that he blazed.

I had the honor of knowing Pat, working with him, and trying to hold my own in countless spirited conversations with him. He was brilliant, blunt, insightful, and passionate. Intense is another word that comes to mind.

We once did a press conference together where a reporter asked about taxes. The premise of the question was flawed and Pat lit into him with a tour de force presentation drawing upon history, data, and Pat’s personal experience. It was so brutal that I actually felt bad for the reporter. There was no follow up question.

But there was another side of Pat. I remember him being very kind/supportive to my wife and I during a difficult season in our family life. I also remember how, in the middle of a heated phone conversation, he seemed to melt when his grandchildren came into the room.

Perhaps what I liked best about Pat is how he was constantly irritated by anyone who was comfortable with the status quo. He was irritated because he knew that America could be so much better.

Is Phone Polling Dead?

Posted on August 29, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

There is a vigorous debate as to whether phone polling is dead or just dying. Some of it is fueled by the erroneous notion that the pollsters total missed the mark in the 2016 election. Actually, the national poll results were generally accurate in forecasting a modest popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton. While the polling was decent, the analysis wasn’t.

Still, there are legitimate questions about the viability of phone polling in a time when fewer than half the nation’s households have a landline telephone. And, calling cell phones isn’t necessarily the answer. Hardly anybody answers their cell phones unless they know the caller. Hard as it is for older Americans to accept, phones just aren’t for talking anymore.

The challenges for the industry go beyond just phone technology and etiquette. When I did my first live-operator poll more than 30 years ago, Americans shared a much more unified culture. Not only did we use the phone as our primary means of communication, our news and entertainment came from only a handful of sources that we all knew.

In the 1970s, 94% of Americans watched one of three television networks at night. As if that wasn’t enough, when the president spoke, we all watched because the networks ditched their regular coverage in favor of the White House messaging. Different people placed different levels of trust in the media or the president, of course, but we were all getting the same narrative as a starting point. That world no longer exists.

Today, it is certainly possible though difficult, to conduct a quality phone poll. Many firms continue to do it well. However, it will not be possible much longer. Reasonable people can disagree as to how much longer phone polling can hang on, but the future of polling will be built on digital platforms. That’s why I’ve chosen a digital approach for all ScottRasmussen.com polls (see Methodology).

It takes more than a digital platform, though, to generate reliable data. It takes a team of top-quality professionals to use the platform appropriately and with rigorous standards. That’s why I’ve chosen HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys, to be my partner at ScottRasmussen.com. They will survey one thousand registered voters for us five nights a week. Each night’s survey collects responses from diverse panel of Americans and is designed to reflect a nationally-representative sample weighted for gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, and other relevant demographics.

Reliable data is the foundation of public opinion research. But, as we saw in 2016, good data can be distorted by bad analysis. The starting point for good analysis is asking the right questions.

At ScottRasmussen.com we have an experienced team of research professionals who suggest topics, draft questionnaires, and guide all aspects of the survey process. We are constantly and consciously seeking to supplement rather than simply repeat data collected by other public polling firms. We believe that intentionally exploring contrarian themes enhances the public debate by highlighting other perspectives and providing a richer understanding of the topics at hand.

Once we have the data, our analysis is based upon great respect for the common-sense wisdom of the American people. If, for example, most people don’t know who represents them in Congress, we conclude that such knowledge is of little value to them. If the answers to two questions seem inconsistent from a political perspective, we assume that the political perspective is missing something important. Often, that will lead us to ask further questions to improve our understanding of the public mood (read About Us).

Polling Methodology

Posted on August 29, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

The appropriate methodology for any public opinion survey is dependent upon the survey objective and needs of the client. Scott Rasmussen relies primarily upon online survey techniques to conduct his surveys. However, in some instances, the online research is supplemented by automated phone polling approaches.

There are two basic approaches to selecting respondents for online surveys. One is to randomly contact participants from a comprehensive panel of potential participants. The other is to randomly contact participants from an appropriate list (i.e.—voters or customers). Again, the appropriate approach depends upon the needs of the client.

Automated phone polling interviews are made exclusively from appropriate lists and only land line phones are contacted. Such calls generally reach an older and more rural audience than is representative of the population at large. However, in some circumstances, this can be useful to offset the fact that online surveys find it easier to reach younger and more urban participants.

In all surveys conducted by Scott Rasmussen, certain quotas are applied to insure adequate representation of diverse demographic and geographic populations. The final results are lightly weighted by gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the population being studied. Other variables are frequently reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The Senate Protects Our Freedoms

Posted on July 19, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Based upon census bureau projections, 69% of all Americans are projected to live in the 16 largest states. Given the uncertainties of predicting how people will live in an era of self-driving cars and other cultural changes, the precise numbers may be a bit off. But, it is certainly true that a handful of large states will hold the bulk of the population. That’s the way it’s always been and probably always will be.

These states will dominate the House of Representatives. If they have 69% of the population, they will have roughly 69% of the seats in Congress.

The Senate, however, is different. Each state is represented by two Senators regardless of population. California gets two Senators for its 39 million residents. But Wyoming gets two as well, despite having barely 600,000. At a very instinctive level, that seems unfair. Our underlying view of democracy demands that every person should have an equal voice in selecting government officials.

On a larger scale, some pundits express great concern that the 34 smaller states will have an outsized presence in the United States Senate. A recent Washington Post column noted that roughly “30 percent of the population of the country will control 68 percent of the seats in the U.S. Senate.” Critics also note that these smaller states are generally in the center of the country and are demographically different than the larger coastal states.

If America was supposed to be a pure democracy, this would be wildly inappropriate and troubling. However, our nation was founded on a belief in freedom as well as democracy. The architects of our Constitution recognized that one of the greatest threats to individual freedom would be a tyranny of the majority. Allowing 51% of voters to set rules for the other 49% to live by would be a recipe for disaster, not democracy.

Without the Senate, tyrannical majorities in coastal America could completely ignore the concerns of those who live in the middle of the country. They could pass laws that make sense in New York and California but are completely inappropriate in Missouri or Wisconsin. The Senate protects against such an outcome.

It’s important to note that this does not give the smaller states the ability to ignore the wishes of the coastal states. Those larger states have plenty of power in the House. In practical terms, as the Post notes, “The House and the Senate will be weighted to two largely different Americas.” For the federal government to work, the two Americas need to recognize each other’s’ concerns and find ways to address them.

This requirement to address the concerns of others annoys those who want an efficient government to quickly implement their own pet policies. It irritates those who believe 51% of the people should be able to use the government for whatever purposes they want. It frustrates presidents and other politicians who want to implement their agendas without working through a complex system of checks and balances.

But those concerns are the very reason for having a Senate. It is part of a carefully designed structure of government that forces leaders to build a strong consensus before unleashing the power of the federal government. As such, the Senate is essential to protecting our unalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

The Culture Leads, Not the Supreme Court

Posted on July 12, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just about every American election year is peppered with quotes from seemingly very serious people claiming that, for some reason, this is the most important election of our lifetime. This year, we’re also being told that the political battle to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy may be the most important confirmation vote of all time. News stories are littered with references to how it will change the direction of the court and the country for a generation or more.

Such rhetoric misses the important reality that we live in a land where the culture leads and politics lag behind. Yes, elections are important. They have consequences. Yes, it matters who serves on the Supreme Court. That, too, has consequences.

But elected politicians and appointed Supreme Court Justices do not lead the nation. They follow.

For example, one of the hot-button issues that has activists worked up is abortion. Liberal activists are terrified that a more conservative court may overturn Roe v. Wade. Social conservatives are thrilled at the prospect. But, it’s important to recognize that the threat to Roe v. Wade is not President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Instead, the threat to Roe v. Wade is the fact that the controversial ruling is far from settled law in the Court of Public Opinion.

As of last month, according to Gallup, 48% of Americans considered themselves pro-life while 48% considered themselves pro-choice. Those numbers are little changed over the past 18 years. And, if anything, they have shifted a bit in the pro-life direction since the 1990s. Ultimately, it is these underlying public attitudes that created a Supreme Court equally divided on the question.

Of course, abortion is far from the only issue on the Supreme Court’s agenda. The Nixon Administration launched an effort in the 1970s giving the federal bureaucracy more power to issue rules for the rest of us to live by. Some call this enormous centralization of power the Administrative State. I call it the Regulatory State. Whatever you call it, the Supreme Court placed few limits. Now, that appears to be changing. In fact, a Brookings Institute article suggests that reigning in the Regulatory State may be one of Kavenaugh’s first big impacts on the court.

Why would this happen? Because the Regulatory State has never enjoyed the consent of the governed. In the nearly half-century of Regulatory State prominence, a majority of Americans has never trusted the federal government to do the right thing most of the time. According to Monmouth University polling, 60% of Americans believe unelected officials have too much power. Just 26% believe the balance between elected officials and the bureaucracy is about right. To top it off, Monmouth reports that 80% believe these officials monitor and spy on American citizens.

The list could go on and on. America is led by a deep cultural commitment to freedom, equality, and self-governance. As a society, we pragmatically apply those core values to the issues of the day and eventually a broad societal consensus is achieved. Elected officials and Supreme Court justices have an important role to play in this process. But, we must never forget that their role is to reflect the nation rather than lead it.

Is Populism a Blessing or Curse?

Posted on July 5, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

As we celebrate our nation’s 242^nd birthday, America is caught up in a populist moment. Whether this is a good thing or not depends largely upon how you define populism.

For some, populism is nothing more than a belief that, in America, the people are supposed to be in charge. It’s reminding government officials of the timeless principles eloquently expressed in the Declaration of Independence: governments derive their only just powers from the consent of the governed. All of us are created equal with an unalienable right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

If that’s what populism is all about, it’s a real blessing.

However, Brookings Institute scholar William Galston properly sees other strains of populism as a fundamental threat to American democracy. Populists, according to Galston, believe there are no limits to what a majority of voters can authorize the government to do. It “puts pressure on the individual rights and limits on public power at the heart of” our system of government.

If populism is about simply winning 51% of the vote and imposing rules for the other 49% to live by, it’s an invitation to tyranny of the majority. That’s a curse that rejects our founding ideals and will destroy the United States. Unfortunately, there are plenty of extremists on both the political right and left embracing this view.

We can leave the definition of populism to academics. A more important task at the moment is figuring out how the nation can move forward to more fully live out its founding ideals. On this topic, Galston offers a helpful four-point framework defining the way our governing system is supposed to work.

The first, what he calls the Republican Principle, is that the people are the “sole source of legitimacy” for our government. The second is Democracy, a concept suggesting that everybody has an equal right to participate in governing decisions and that the majority rules.

The third point in Galston’s formula is Constitutionalism, a set of enduring rules for formal governance. Fortunately, the American Constitution includes an elaborate system of checks and balances built upon a separation of powers. That is essential for protecting the fourth pillar of Galston’s approach: “creating a sphere beyond the rightful reach of government in which individuals can enjoy independence and privacy.”

In today’s world, we’d call that fourth pillar a commitment to individual freedom. Galston calls it “liberalism”, based on an historic understanding of the term. It does not reflect political liberalism as understood in the 21^st century.

This commitment to individual freedom is the most important part of the entire structure. It limits what a majority of voters, a majority of legislators, a majority of Supreme Court Justices, or any president can do to other Americans. That protection of individuals and minority groups is essential to the most basic of all American values: the belief that we all have the right to live our own lives as we see fit so long as we respect the rights of others to do the same.

Galston’s book, Anti-Pluralism: The Populist Threat to Liberal Democracy (Yale University Press, 2018), is a healthy reminder of the ongoing challenge of balancing freedom and democracy in the 21^st century. There’s plenty I disagree with in it, but even more thought-provoking insights.

The Immigration Mess

Posted on June 28, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Problems with U.S. immigration policy played a big role in the 2016 presidential election and are likely to do so in election after election until significant changes are made. It’s a serious issue worthy of substantial public debate. However, what passes for a public dialogue on the issue is anything but serious.

It is, for example, heartbreaking to hear about and see pictures of young children separated from their parents at the U.S. border. According to a CBS poll, only 4% of Americans support that approach for dealing with families who enter the country illegally. But, beyond that, there’s not a clear consensus on what should be done.

Under the Obama Administration, families who entered the country illegally were released into the United States and required to report back for a hearing on their status at a later date. Not surprisingly, many failed to report as promised. Also not surprising is the fact that only 21% of Americans support that policy.

Roughly half of all Americans believe that families who enter the U.S. illegally should simply be returned to their home country. While understandable, that approach raises the question of how we will ensure that those sent home won’t try again to illegally enter the United States. Since coming to the United States could offer a better future for their children, it’s reasonable to assume that caring parents won’t give up after just one try.

Clearly, a debate focused around the narrow question of how to deal with families entering the U.S. illegally will not lead to a lasting solution for the current immigration mess.

Instead, the starting point for a serious debate would focus on what sort of legal immigration the nation is willing to encourage or accept. Most Americans support a generally welcoming immigration policy so long as those who come here can support themselves and do not pose a national security or criminal threat. Such concerns cannot be lightly dismissed. Sixty-one percent (61%) believe that some of those seeking to enter the country illegally are criminals and gang members. Sixty-seven percent (67%) believe that some are seeking handouts and welfare payments.

Coming up with a policy to address those concerns raises an important subset of questions. Do we prioritize those who have valuable skills or relatives of U.S. citizens? How much legal immigration should we allow? What exceptions should be allowed for humanitarian purposes? How do we classify seasonal workers who want to legally enter the country and then return home? Should the states or federal government determine how many such workers are allowed? How long should new immigrants be required to live in the United States before being eligible for citizenship? The list could go on and on.

While difficult, it is quite possible to build a consensus around policies that respect America’s great tradition as both a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws. As on most issues, there is far more common ground among the American people on immigration than the elites would like to admit.

And, a key part of that common ground is a belief that a functioning system of legal immigration must be supported by a rational program for preventing illegal immigration.

Politicians Learn How Governments Are Held Accountable

Posted on June 14, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Political leaders often talk as if the right to vote is our most powerful tool for holding government accountable. Voting is important, but its impact is limited by an electoral process that protects incumbents and offers voters’ few meaningful options.

Fortunately, as the Seattle City Council learned recently, there are other ways to hold politicians and governments accountable.

The Seattle politicians passed a law requiring big companies to pay a special tax for every person on the payroll. This “head tax” was the brainchild of a socialist council member Kshama Sawant. She apparently reasoned that big companies like Amazon had enough money and should be forced to kick in a bit more for the good of the city.

While that may have sounded good to progressive political activists, the councilwoman didn’t seem to consider the reality that Amazon could hire people anywhere. The giant employer didn’t have to stay in Seattle and many citizens worried that the new tax would lead to fewer jobs in the city.

Quickly, petition signatures were gathered, the issue was placed on the November ballot, and the city council surrendered. With voters set to repeal the tax on their own, seven-of-the-nine city council members decided to cut their losses rather than endure a five-month debate highlighting how out of touch they were.

The key to understanding this reversal is recognizing that citizens have more power as consumers than we do as voters. Cities and towns must constantly compete for residents, employers, and jobs. That competition places great constraints on the power of local government officials.

The concept of using consumer power to hold governments accountable was first seriously developed in 1956 by Northwestern University’s Charles M. Tiebout. He compared the act of moving or failing to move to the typical consumer decision-making about whether or not to buy a particular product.

Looked at this way, when we choose a place to live, we are “buying” a mix of lifestyle benefits, and the “price” we pay is determined by housing costs, taxes, regulations, and other factors. If the costs go up or the benefits go down, we might initially try voting in a new team to fix the problem. After all, it’s a bit of a hassle to move. But, if the prices keep going up or the services keep going down, we can simply move to greener pastures.

In Seattle, residents quickly recognized that the “head tax” would make it harder for the city to retain and attract quality jobs for its citizens. Had it not been repealed, many Seattle residents would have followed the jobs and moved elsewhere.

There’s a larger lesson here as well. People who mistakenly believe that voting is our most powerful tool for holding government accountable misunderstand how society is governed. They believe governing a city or a society is the responsibility of government alone.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We need a pragmatic all-hands-on-board approach that draws upon family, community groups, businesses, and government to all play a role in governing society. Each of us has a role to play.

As citizens, we can most powerfully influence the governing process by our decisions about what to walk away from… and what we walk towards.

Let’s End Official White House Visits for Sports Champions

Posted on June 7, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

One of this week’s silliest news “controversies” swirled around the Philadelphia Eagles’ cancelled visit to the White House. Pundits on the right were offended that many players refused the honor of a White House invitation just because they don’t like the president. On the left, CNN’s Chris Cillizza was deeply offended by President Trump’s decision to rescind the invite and his “appalling” statement about it.

In other words, the entire episode was simply a Rorschach test that provided a platform for partisans on both sides to voice entirely predictable opinions. If the president said his favorite color was yellow, some would hail the wisdom of the choice while others would find evidence of corruption. That’s just the way things work in politics today.

But this incident reveals a deeper rot in the entire political process. Both sides in the partisan sniping implicitly assume that the president should act like royalty and treat the White House like a palace. It’s part of a larger attitude pretending that the president’s every utterance is of supreme importance and that he must express an opinion on just about everything.

I disagree.

The president’s job is to lead the government, not bestow royal blessings on successful citizens or offer a running commentary on every fad in the news cycle. Bluntly, I don’t care what President Trump thinks about the Philadelphia Eagles any more than I cared about the March Madness brackets filled out by President Obama. If you want royalty, go to London.

In America, it should be possible to watch a football game or go to the theater without hearing from or about the president. In fact, it should be normal to go about daily life without encountering the intrusion of partisan politics into every nook and cranny of society. Unfortunately, that’s not the case today.

To restore balance in our public life, it’s well past time to establish social boundaries protecting large segments of public life from the civic pollution of politics. We must get rid of the false media narrative that every problem has a political solution and every situation must be analyzed politically. President Trump could take a simple step in the right direction by ending the practice of inviting teams to the White House.

With boundaries protecting society from politics, it would be easier to remember that the president runs the government, not the country. We would see more reminders that almost all positive change in America comes from far outside of official Washington. Leaders like Jackie Robinson, Martin Luther King, Jr., Steve Jobs, and Bill Gates have each had a more lasting impact than any politician.

That’s the way it’s supposed to work in a nation founded upon the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Politics do have a role to play in governing our society, but it is not the lead role. Instead, progress comes from unleashing the creativity and resources of individual Americans, families, community groups, churches, entrepreneurs, small businesses, local governments and more. Leadership comes from millions of everyday Americans who work together in community to create a better world.

Republicans Poised to Gain Senate Seats in 2018

Posted on May 31, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Last December, Democrat Doug Jones won a Senate race in Alabama by defeating a horribly flawed Republican candidate Roy Moore. For the first time, it appeared that the Democrats had a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in 2018. The Republican advantage was trimmed to a 51-49 margin and a net change of two seats would make New York Senator Chuck Schumer the new Senate Majority leader.

To win the Senate, all the Democrats had to do was win GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada and successfully defend all of their incumbents. At the time, the Democrats had a double-digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and being opposed to President Trump seemed to be all that was needed. It looked like the Democrats were poised to ride a blue wave back to power.

My, how times have changed!

Shortly after Doug Jones won that special election in Alabama, the Republicans in Congress cut taxes and eliminated the Obamacare mandate. Having demonstrated that they could do something that their voters wanted, the GOP prospects began to improve. Now, with the elections just six months away, it seems that Republican are more likely to gain seats in the Senate rather than lose control.

Sure, it’s still possible that the Dems could pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada. But, such an outcome is far from a sure thing as both races are now toss-ups.

And, even if Schumer’s party wins both of those races, the chances of successfully defending all of the vulnerable Democratic incumbents is increasingly in doubt. The Dems are playing defense hoping to hang on to five Senate seats in states that President Trump won by double digits—West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana. On top of that, Florida Governor Rick Scott has entered the fray to challenge Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in a toss-up state. Early indications are that Scott has all the energy and momentum in the race.

The numbers clearly favor the GOP. If, for example, the Democrats pick up BOTH toss-up races in Arizona and Nevada, the Republicans need to win just one of the other six competitive races to keep the Senate at a 50-50 tie. With Vice President Mike Pence empowered to cast the deciding vote, the GOP would remain in control.

At this moment in time, however, it seems like the Republicans should expect to do much better than a mere 50-50 tie in the Senate. There is certainly a chance they could win at least one of the toss-up Senate races in either Arizona or Nevada (especially if Martha McSally wins the Republican nomination in Arizona).

Beyond that, Democrats Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly face uphill battles in Missouri and Indiana. It’s very easy to imagine the R’s picking up at least one of those seats. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is probably a slight underdog in her North Dakota re-election bid. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin’s personal popularity may be enough to overcome the fact that President Trump carried the state by 42 points—but it will probably be very close. And, as always, Florida remains a pure toss-up.

Add it all up, and the Democrats need to pull an inside straight to avoid losing seats in the Senate this November.

The Fundamental Reason President Trump Will Not Be Impeached

Posted on May 24, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

President Trump is in no danger of being impeached and removed from office. I say this with confidence despite having no knowledge of what Special Counsel Mueller and his team may find.

That’s because impeachment is a political process rather than a legal process. As a result, things that happen outside the world of government matter far more than the things official Washington obsesses about.

Politically, the most important outside factor governing any president’s fate is the U.S. economy. This truth is confirmed by the two modern efforts to impeach a president. In 1974, President Nixon was forced to resign from office. In 1998, however, President Clinton not only stayed in office but grew more popular over time.

In the months leading up to Nixon’s landslide re-election in 1972, consumer confidence reached its highest level in years. According to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, confidence reached 95.2 in the third quarter of that year. Less than two years later, confidence collapsed all the way to 64.4 and Nixon was forced from office.

Shortly after Nixon’s victory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high. But, in the two years that followed, a brutal recession shook the nation’s confidence and stock prices fell nearly 40%. The numbers don’t begin to capture the bleak mood as the country was forced to ration gasoline for the first time since World War II.

In Bill Clinton’s case, exactly the opposite occurred. When he was re-elected in 1996, consumer confidence was at roughly the same level as when Nixon won his second term. Rather than crashing, though, consumer sentiment improved by nine points in the following two years. Stock prices increased by 28% in 1997 and 16% in 1998. Once again, the numbers don’t tell the full story. The national optimism during Clinton’s tenure was boosted by an emerging tech industry that promised amazing breakthroughs.

In other words, it was the economy that put the final nails in Nixon’s presidential coffin. But, it sustained Bill Clinton through tough times. If the economy performed for Nixon as it did for Clinton, he would not have been forced from office. If Clinton had suffered through Nixon’s economy, many Democrats would have urged him to step aside.

None of this suggests that everyday Americans don’t care about corruption in politics or the toxic nature of our dysfunctional political system. They would love honest politicians who put others first. But in the real world, voters rarely have a choice between the devil and an angel. On the day he was elected president, 64% of voters believed Donald Trump was NOT honest and trustworthy. However, 61% said the same of Hillary Clinton.

Rather than holding out for a saintly politician, pragmatic voters go with the lesser of two evils. As a result, today’s economy is protecting Trump as it did Clinton a generation ago. Since the months leading up to Trump’s victory, consumer sentiment has gone up about the same amount as it did under Clinton. Several polls have shown that Americans feel better about the way things are going than they have in a long time. Stock prices are up 25% as well.

Trump will not be forced from office in such an environment.

STATE OF THE MIDTERMS

Posted on May 17, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Last December, the midterm outlook looked bleak for Republicans. With the Democrats enjoying a 13-point lead on the Generic Ballot, pundits talked of a “big blue wave.” The question was not whether the Democrats would win the two dozen seats needed to gain control of the House, but whether they might win 40-50 seats in a landslide approaching the Republican gains in 2010.

Since then, Republicans passed a tax cut, eliminated the Obamacare mandate, and took other steps to reduce the regulatory burden. The economy took off, people are feeling better about how things are going in the nation, and recent primaries suggest that the enthusiasm of Republican voters is higher than expected.

As a result, the Democratic lead on the Generic Ballot is down to five points. At that level, control of the House is close to a Toss-Up. Nancy Pelosi’s party may be slight favorites to win the 23 additional House seats they need, but they could easily fall short. While seeking to navigate this newly treacherous electoral landscape, the Democrats are dealing with the reality that the enthusiasm of the progressive base can be a double-edged sword. It can help with turnout but may also create electoral headaches.

Earlier this week, for example, progressives helped social worker Kara Eastman win the Democratic nomination in Nebraska’s second Congressional District. It’s a district that the president won in 2016 and is expected to be competitive this fall. With a more centrist candidate, the race was considered a pure toss-up. With a far-left nominee in the race, however Republican incumbent Don Bacon is now favored to win.

The importance of a single race like this can be seen in the numbers. Currently at ScottRasmussen.com, we rate 202 races as leaning towards the Democrats. Additionally, there are 24 races rated as either a Toss-Up or just barely Tilting towards the Republican. To win control, Pelosi’s party will need to win 16 of these 24 races. Every potentially competitive race they give away makes the odds more challenging. Primaries in the next month or so will give us a good sense of how big a problem this is for the Democrats.

On top of that, the double-edged sword of progressive enthusiasm provides Democrats with another challenge. The issues that appeal to the progressive base are likely to turn off swing voters. Nancy Pelosi recently confirmed that her team will raise taxes if they win. That message will appeal to Bernie Sanders’ supporters but not middle-income families.

And, of course, progressive Democrats want their party to impeach President Trump. The more that such talk dominates the midterm elections, the more it helps Republicans. Impeachment talk will not play well with the swing voters who disapprove of the president but still view him as the lesser of two evils.

It’s been six months since Democrats enjoyed their 13-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot and dreamed of historic gains in the midterm election. With six months to go, there’s obviously plenty of time for the political environment to change again. For now, however, the parties are locked in a tight race-by-race contest that could go either way.

Was The Blankenship “Momentum” Real?

Posted on May 10, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

In the final days before the West Virginia primary, breathless media coverage suggested that businessman Don Blankenship was gaining ground rapidly and had a real shot at winning the Republican Senate nomination. ABC News quoted a “national Republican operative” who said it’s “down to the wire” and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the controversial candidate won.

All this concern even prompted President Trump to tweet that Blankenship “can’t win the General Election” and encouraging West Virginia voters to cast their ballots for someone else.

But Blankenship didn’t win or even come close. Instead, he finished a distant third with just 19% of the vote. It’s possible that the presidential tweet turned the tide. But it’s even more likely that there wasn’t any real Blankenship momentum to unwind.

A couple of weeks before the primary, public polls showed Blankenship a distant third, trailing two quality candidates—Attorney General Patrick Morrissey and Congressman Evan Jenkins. A Fox News poll showed Blankenship picking up 16% of the vote, not far from the 19% he actually received on Election Day. It certainly doesn’t provide any sense of pro-Blankenship momentum.

The Blankenship-was-surging storyline came from “internal polling” leaked to the media. As a general rule, it’s wise to be very skeptical of such internal polls and to remember that the leaker has an agenda. But such skepticism was missing in the run-up to primary day as Politico reported that victory was “within reach” for Blankenship. Not only that, there were reports of “finger-pointing” going on behind the scenes in GOP circles. Some were blaming the White House, some the other West Virginia candidates, and some Mitch McConnell.

How did this happen? I suspect the story took off because elite journalists and national Republican political operatives were predisposed to believe it.

Blankenship was a horrible candidate. He recently spent time in prison on charges relating to a mining disaster that killed 29 miners. His campaign rallies and comments included racist and hateful commentary. Many in the national media believe that conservative voters are primarily driven by racial resentment, especially in places like West Virginia. So, it made sense to them that a candidate like Blankenship was surging.

On top of that, the West Virginia Senate race represents a prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP. Incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin is vulnerable in a state that President Trump won by 42 percentage points (68% to 26%). A good candidate could defeat Manchin and help the Republican party retain control of the Senate. Blankenship could not.

Sadly, many national Republican political operatives also have a condescending view of their party’s voters. They were ready to believe in a Blankenship surge because they feared those voters weren’t smart enough to understand what was at stake.

When the votes were counted, however, it was the journalists and operatives who looked foolish. Their frenzied speculation in the election’s final days were as far off the mark as their discussions about how big the Hillary Clinton landslide victory would be in 2016.

Once again, the elites demonstrated how little they understand the American people.

The Primary Season Has Arrived

Posted on May 3, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

After months of speculation and shifting expectations, the midterm elections will start to really take shape in the coming two months. A dozen states will host primaries in May; a dozen-and-a-half more in June.

In the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, we currently know both party’s nominees in three of the GOP’s best pick-up opportunities: Republican Governor Rick Scott is challenging Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in Florida; Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley is taking on Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri; and, Republican Congressman Kevin Cramer is challenging Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.

Next week’s primaries will determine the GOP nominees in two other states featuring vulnerable Democratic incumbents: West Virginia and Indiana. Donald Trump carried both states by wide margins and both are rated as Toss-ups at ScottRasmussen.com.

In West Virginia, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin is a popular figure who won his first election in the state 36 years ago. He’s won statewide elections as Secretary of State, Governor, and U.S. Senator. While Manchin is popular, his party is not. President Trump won the Mountain State by 42 percentage points (68% to 26%).

Tuesday’s primary will determine Manchin’s opponent. Either of the two favorites–Congressman Evan Jenkins and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey—could present Manchin with a serious challenge. Veteran political analyst Larry Sabato believes that “Jenkins is the most electable, but under the right conditions Morrisey could win too.”

Democrats are hoping that former coal company CEO Don Blankenship pulls off an upset to win the nomination. He served time in prison on charges related to a mining explosion that killed 29 miners. A Blankenship victory next Tuesday would virtually guarantee another term for Manchin. Republicans are breathing easier, though, as recent polls show the former CEO falling behind Jenkins and Morrisey.

Three Republicans are also running for the right to challenge Indiana’s Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly. However, none of the three are unelectable. A pair of Congressmen– Luke Messer and Todd Rokita—have been feuding since college and were the early favorites for the nomination. Former state Representative Mike Braun has self-funded his campaign and made it a three-way race. Braun is seen by some as the frontrunner.

The bitter primary fight has some Democrats in the Hoosier State hoping for a divided Republican party. However, Sabato notes that “it’s only May and the assumption is that Republicans will unite.” He adds that the unification effort will be Vice President (and former Indiana Governor) Mike Pence’s job. As a side note, it’s possible that the Vice President’s brother will be one of the GOP nominees for the House.

Following next Tuesday, then, the contenders will be clearly identified for all the Republican’s five most likely pick-up opportunities in the U.S. Senate. Barring an upset victory by Blankenship, the GOP will have solid candidates in all five. Additionally, each of these races will be conducted in states won by President Trump (four of them by double digits). If the GOP is able to win even one of these seats, it will be very difficult for the Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate.

Microtrends, Not Politics, Lead the Nation

Posted on April 26, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

If you want to understand where America is heading, a good place to start is with Mark Penn’s new book, Microtrends Squared. Penn came to fame in the 1990s as a pollster in the Clinton White House, later served as Chief Strategy Officer for Microsoft, and is now Chairman of the Harris Poll.

One of the most valuable parts of the book is its implicit recognition of the reality that the culture leads and politicians lag behind. Of the 50 microtrends identified by Penn, only 7 deal with politics. That ratio seems about right. The other 43 highlight trends involving Love and Relationships, Health and Diet, Technology Lifestyle, and Work/Business.

Penn sees these microtrends as “dots on a global impressionist painting that comes to life when you step back and look at it holistically.” He correctly believes they have already “started to upend society.”

As if to emphasize the societal impact, the very first chapter jumps right into a data driven analysis of “Second Fiddle Husbands.” A steadily growing number of working wives earn as much or more than their husbands. Penn doesn’t get distracted arguing whether this is good or bad. As an analyst, he simply notes that this is a new reality with significant cultural implications.

He takes the same approach to identify 49 other microtrends including Independent Marrieds, Wellness Freaks, The New Addicts, Nerds with Money, Happy Pessimists, and Self-Data Lovers. These microtrends may seem small in and of themselves, but they are upending the culture we live in and reshaping the future of the nation.

These microtrends are the ways that society is working out the details of what I have called The Great Turnaround. From colonial times up until the 1970s, everything in America tended to get bigger, more centralized, and more homogenized. Then, the invention of the microprocessor along with the birth of Apple and Microsoft sent American society heading in the opposite direction. Over the past four decades, our nation has steadily become more decentralized and personalized.

Unfortunately, while our society has decentralized, our political system and government have continued on the path to increased centralization. The disconnect between a decentralizing society and a centralizing political system is unsustainable. A one-size-fits-all-government cannot survive in the iPad era. Something has to give.

That tension has weighed on Penn’s assessment of 21^st century America. In a 2007 prequel to this book, he saw “boundless opportunities.” He confessed to an “over-the-top” optimism about the promise of the digital era. Now, the veteran analyst sees a world filled with unintended consequences and a need for society to tame the power that has been unleashed. “Modern life is at a crossroads.” Microtrends “are simultaneously pulling society in different directions, often diametrically opposed.”

I remain more optimistic than Penn (though I believe the toxic political environment is likely to get worse before it gets better). And, I don’t agree with all the recommendations he makes in the closing chapter. But I strongly commend his commitment to raising the alarm about the unfolding cultural changes and challenges facing our nation. Understanding the realities presented in Microtrends Squared is an important first step towards moving our nation forward.

Politics Polarizes, Community Unites

Posted on April 19, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

News outlets are routinely filled with commentary and analysis suggesting that 21st century America is a deeply polarized nation. Countless stories are presented as a battle between conservatives and liberals, Republicans and Democrats, private sector and public.

Political activists fan the flames with talking points “proving” that they hold the moral and rational high ground. They convey a sense that anybody who disagrees with them is either stupid or corrupt.

Watching all this makes many people fighting mad and fills them with a burning desire to beat the other team. Far too many nice and reasonable people get so riled up by the partisanship that they do rude and obnoxious things. Friends begin to tune them out and avoid them because their intensity and single-minded focus is tiresome.

The saddest part of all comes when the campaigning ends and people learn the ultimate futility of engaging in politics as usual. Even when your team wins, nothing really changes and the anger increases.

Some commentators bemoan all the anger and long for a more civilized form of political combat. They want to believe that social media or alienated voters or some other outside force is causing the problem.

Such a utopian fantasy misses the point: Polarization is not a cancer on the body politic, it is the lifeblood of politics. Politicians grasping for power and money need polarization to pose as heroes protecting “their” voters from the “other” side.

Polarization distracts attention from the reality that politicians are less important than they think they are. It hides the truth that the culture leads and politicians lag behind.

Perhaps worst of all, political polarization blinds many to the common ground we share as Americans. As a nation founded upon the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance, we share a common creed:

· Just about all of us believe we have the right to live our lives as we see fit, so long as we respect the rights of others to do the same.

· We also share a nearly universal desire to create a better world by working together in community. That’s the best use of our individual freedom.

Building upon these shared values, America’s real leaders reside far from Washington and serve their communities in a variety of ways. Most importantly, they recognize that governing is not the responsibility of government alone. Instead, every organization and relationship has a role to play in making society work.

Community leaders work through a variety of local groups typically formed to meet a specific need. It could be anything from a volunteer fire department to a beautification committee or theater group. When a need arises, servant leaders seek to unleash the creativity of individual Americans, families, community groups, churches, entrepreneurs, small businesses, local governments, and anyone willing to help.

Most of these efforts produce an important side benefit that is even more valuable than the task at hand. Working together in community build relationships between people from different backgrounds and with different experiences. That builds social capital which can unify a community and a nation.

America is much bigger—and better—than its politics. Our political process may be divided and dysfunctional. But our nation is not. Thankfully, the leadership that can bring us together is already hard at work in communities throughout the land.

An Epic Power Struggle: Government Fights The Tech Industry

Posted on April 12, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s testimony on Capitol Hill is merely the latest round in an ongoing power struggle between official Washington and the tech industry.

It’s a struggle that stems from a core reality identified years ago by Harvard’s Nicco Mele. “The devices and connectivity so essential to modern life put unprecedented power in the hands of every individual.” Empowering individuals is great for everyone except for those elite officials who used to wield more power over the rest of us. “Radical connectivity is toxic to traditional power structures.”

As Mele describes it, smartphones and other tech innovation have led to “a radical redistribution of power that our traditional institutions don’t and perhaps can’t understand.” That failure to understand is clearly on display in the Zuckerberg matter.

Millions of Americans are understandably upset about Facebook’s failure to protect private information. Those who place their faith in traditional governmental institutions believe this should lead to regulation protecting individual privacy rights. But the notion of the federal government protecting our privacy is laughable to millions.

Rather than believing the feds will protect our privacy, most Americans (53%) believe the federal government is engaged in widespread spying on American citizens. Another 29% believe the spying goes on but is not all that widespread. A Monmouth University poll found only 14% believe the government does not engage in such behavior.

This is not just an abstract fear. A majority of Americans are specifically concerned that the federal government has invaded their own privacy. Despite the mistakes made by Facebook, the company’s behavior is widely perceived to be the lesser of two evils.

Another misunderstanding is the belief held by some that the tech industry should be regulated to eliminate the scourge of “Fake News.” As viewed by official Washington, real news comes from traditional media sources like newspapers and major TV outlets. In this world view, “Fake News” refers to information that is circulated on social media without official blessing from traditional news outlets.

The problem with this view, however, is that 77% of Americans believe such traditional news outlets report “Fake News.” And they don’t think it happens by accident. Most believe that such false reports are released intentionally to push an agenda. Just 13 percent of Americans believe that the media does a very good job covering both sides of political issues fairly.

While those who place their trust in traditional journalists see social media as the purveyor of “Fake News,” a much larger number view social media as an antidote to the “Fake News” peddled by traditional journalists. It gives people a way to learn about issues ignored by the elite media and hear a wider variety of perspectives on things that matter. It may not be perfect but relying upon social media is seen by many as a lesser evil than relying solely upon traditional journalists.

There are certainly legitimate concerns about tech companies and some of their products. It’s also reasonable to ask whether tech companies are too big and should be broken up. But, we should never lose sight of the fact that digital technologies have empowered individuals at the expense of traditional power structures.

For those in power, that’s a cause for concern. For the rest of us, it’s a reason to celebrate.

Iowa Leads the Way on Obamacare Reform

Posted on April 5, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Lawmakers and bureaucrats in official Washington often act as if their decisions lead the nation forward. News from Iowa this week, however, shows once again that the culture leads and politicians lag behind.

Kim Reynolds became Iowa’s Governor last May when her predecessor (Terry Branstad) resigned to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to China. Reynolds is now running for her own full term in a state where the average Obamacare premiums jumped 57%. “Many Iowans faced a choice of going broke or going without insurance,” according to Reynolds. “And that’s really not a real choice.”

Seizing the opportunity to solve a problem during an election year, Reynolds signed a bill allowing the Iowa Farm Bureau to offer “health benefit plans” that aren’t covered by the Obamacare regulations. Most significantly, the law will give Iowa residents more choice in the amount of insurance they want to buy.

In purely economic terms, this directly addresses a core reason that insurance prices have jumped so high. The Obamacare regulations mandated that all insurance policies must cover all kinds of medical conditions. Insurance companies loved that one-size-fits-all approach because it forced many people to buy more insurance than they needed or wanted.

For consumers, though, the result of those regulations was sticker shock. An Iowa woman who watched the Governor sign the new law observed “there’s no reason a healthy 32-year-old should be paying more for health insurance than for her mortgage.” Because of Iowa’s new law, she will now have a choice between lower premiums for a basic level of insurance and higher premiums for more comprehensive coverage.

Choice is the key.

The enduring resistance to Obamacare mandates stems from the fact that the law clashed with one of America’s deepest values and cultural traditions. Americans overwhelmingly believe that we have the right to live our own life as we choose, so long as we respect the rights of others to do the same.

That core belief is the reason Obamacare’s individual mandate—a requirement forcing people to buy a specific type of insurance—was so unpopular. Fifteen million Americans said they would drop the insurance coverage if they were allowed to do so. Another six million paid a fine rather than sign up.

These people received a little relief late last year when Republicans in Congress repealed the individual mandate. However, they are still saddled with other mandates requiring insurance companies to sell only the most expensive and comprehensive plans. The states are taking the lead in addressing that problem.

Earlier this year, Idaho passed a law explicitly authorizing insurance companies to sell more basic insurance plans with lower premiums. That effort has encountered strong resistance from the federal government. Iowa has taken a different approach to achieve the same objective. Governor Reynolds and her team found a loophole in the law and are taking advantage of it. It’s likely that many other states will try similar approaches as they search for ways to serve their residents.

The important thing about this development, however, is not the cleverness of the Iowa Governor. It’s about America’s cultural rejection of the idea that bureaucrats know best. Our cultural commitment to freedom will keep driving the process forward and giving individual Americans more control of their own health care choices.

68 Republican House Seats Potentially At Risk

Posted on March 22, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Democrats must pick up 23 seats to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. They have plenty of openings since 68 seats currently held by Republicans are at varying levels of risk.

A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that 28 of these Republican seats are at a high level of risk (Democrat favored, Toss-Up, Tilt Republican). Fourteen more are modestly competitive while leaning in the GOP direction. Finally, 26 others might be at risk depending upon the political environment this fall.

Seven (7) Republican seats are already tilting or leaning to the Democrats. These are races where Republican incumbents like Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) retired.

Another 13 races are rated as pure toss-ups bringing the number of top-tier Democratic opportunities to 20. Five (5) are found in Pennsylvania due to a court-ordered redistricting plan and most are suburban districts.

Given that midterm election dynamics typically favor the party out of power, all 20 GOP seats rated as toss-ups or tilting in the Democratic direction could easily flip from R to D in November. Adding to the challenge for Republicans is that there are very few opportunities for GOP gains. Only two Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups.

While these realities are encouraging for Democrats, they can’t win the majority without defeating some Republican candidates who are currently favored. In fact, control might be determined by the results in eight (8) Republican seats currently rated as barely tilting in favor of the incumbent party. While each race has its own distinct characteristics, the results are likely to be reflective of the national political dialogue.

For example, Minnesota-3 could be decided by the electoral power of the Republican tax-cuts. In a district Clinton won by 9 points, Democrats hope to use that issue against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen. On the other hand, Paulsen believes that “tax cuts and regulatory reform have created real momentum in our economy.” If the tax cut message works, it will help Paulsen keep his job along with many other Republicans in competitive districts.

In Texas-3, John Culberson was seen early on as a potential target for Democrats. Clinton narrowly won his district and the incumbent was slow to build a campaign team and fundraise. But he may have caught a break due to the deep divide between progressives and more centrist candidates. National Democratic strategists openly opposed progressive Laura Moser in the primary, but she made it to the run-off anyhow.

The Democratic civil war may benefit Culberson and other Republicans hoping to keep their jobs. If progressive candidates like Moser are nominated, it could turn off more pragmatic voters. On the other hand, if more centrist Democrats are nominated, it’s not clear whether progressive voters will maintain their enthusiasm to vote in November.

If tax cuts and the Democratic civil war help candidates like Paulsen and Culberson win, the GOP might have a decent election night and retain narrow control of the House. Still, even a good night for Paul Ryan’s party would probably mean losing 15 – 20 seats.

On the other hand, there’s a lot of potential upside for the Democrats. With 68 Republican seats at risk, Nancy Pelosi’s team can dream of a victory as big as the Republican gains in 2010.

Dems Get Good News from PA, But There’s a Long Way to Go

Posted on March 15, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just over a week ago, turnout in the Texas primary raised serious questions about how big the Democratic wave could grow by November. This week, however, Connor Lamb won a narrow special victory in a Pennsylvania district that President Trump had carried by 20 points. Democratic spirits soared and some began dreaming that 100 or more Republican House seats could be at risk.

It’s natural for political types to overstate the importance of the most recent election or the one that’s coming up next. After all, convincing voters that the fate of the world hinges on the results is a key part of getting them out to vote. In reality, however, the events of the last two weeks are just early signs of what might happen rather than what will happen. It’s important to keep things in perspective.

The good news for Democrats from both Texas and Pennsylvania is that President Trump has energized the opposition. The early results confirm polling and anecdotal evidence that Democratic voters are more excited about voting this cycle than Republicans. It’s almost a mirror image of what happened in 2010 when President Obama energized his opposition party.

If the enthusiasm advantage persists into November, the Democrats are likely to win a majority in the House of Representatives. A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com currently projects that Nancy Pelosi’s party would end up with 222 seats while the Republicans would have only 213 (assuming a good turnout for the Democrats). And, there’s plenty of upside for the Democrats if the political winds keep blowing in their direction.

Another good sign for the Democrats is that some of these early expectations can take on the character of a self-fulfilling prophecy. A sense of momentum may help in recruiting top-tier candidates in competitive race and will certainly help the party’s fundraising. On the flip side of the coin, evidence of a coming Democratic wave could open up more opportunities by convincing even more Republican incumbents to retire.

But the recent results include warning signs for Democrats as well. The biggest is Connor Lamb himself. Lamb won in a heavily Trump district by running as a conservative. He proudly embraces the Second Amendment, is personally opposed to abortion, and pledged not to vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker. It’s not clear how many progressive Democratic voters are willing to accept such candidates as the price for winning.

In fact, most of the recent evidence suggests that the energy came from voters seeking more progressive candidates rather than centrists. Looking ahead, a primary next Tuesday in Illinois highlights the growing demands for ideological purity from the Democratic base. Seven term Congressman Dan Lipinsky is facing a serious challenge precisely because he has staked out policy positions similar to those of Connor Lamb.

If Democratic voters are unwilling to tolerate even moderately conservative candidates, their party’s path to victory will be severely limited. If the party’s messaging veers hard left and highlights themes such as single-payer health care and impeaching the president, then the Republicans will probably remain in control of Congress.

This is a good week for Democrats, but there are a lot of weeks left in Election 2018.

The Most Important Demographic for Election 2018

Posted on March 8, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen | 1 Comment

The election season got started this past Tuesday in Texas and the primary results are being analyzed for clues about what they mean for November.

The results confirmed that the Democratic enthusiasm is real, but it’s probably not strong enough to turn Texas blue. The number of votes cast in Democratic primaries nearly doubled from four years ago. However, the 1,037,779 Democratic voters fell half a million short of the GOP’s 1,543,674 votes. Primary votes don’t translate directly into General Election results, but there’s nothing in the data to suggest a big blue wave sweeping over Texas.

However, not all of America is like Texas. The Democratic enthusiasm on display in Texas could easily be enough to give Democrats control of Congress and make Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House. Texas results confirmed the conventional wisdom that millions of Democrats can’t wait to express their displeasure with President Donald Trump at the polls.

The question, though, is how excited Republicans are to defend their president and his agenda. His most enthusiastic supporters will be there, but what about the more reluctant Trump voters?

In 2016, the president was propelled to victory with the votes of people who didn’t think he was qualified for the job. Ten percent (10%) of all voters cast their ballot for him despite this enormous reservation. Why did they do so? Partly because they also thought his opponent was unqualified. In other words, Trump was the lesser of two evils.

Today, many of these voters probably disapprove of the president. They don’t like the way he conducts himself and the way that he ignores institutional norms. But, they are still glad he’s in office rather than Clinton. They believe it is good for the country that Neil Gorsuch is on the Supreme Court, that there is a serious effort to reduce the regulatory burden, and that taxes have been cut. Is that enough to get these voters to show up at the polls in November? How many of these voters may decide it’s just not worth the effort?

More than likely, the answer depends upon what the Democrats do. Will they nominate centrist candidates or progressives? From the perspective of reluctant Trump supporters, those two options look vastly different. A centrist establishment Democrat might not be that bad. In fact, some reluctant Trumpers might prefer such a candidate to a very conservative GOP candidate. But they would feel much differently about candidates from the left wing of the Democratic party.

The early indications from Texas suggest that the Democratic primary voters are more likely to prefer progressive Democrats and reject the establishment. If that trend continues nationwide, reluctant Trump supporters may conclude it’s worth the effort to show up and vote once again for the lesser of two evils.

Obviously, there’s a long way to go until votes are cast in November. In fact, there’s a long way to go before we even know who the Democrats will nominate in many key races. But it’s quite likely that the reluctant Trump supporters could determine control of Congress for the next two years.

Cultural Nuances of the Gun Debate

Posted on March 1, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen | 1 Comment

A recent Politico headline shouted a message that liberal Democrats were longing to hear: “Gun control support surges in polls.” Given the fact that Republicans are generally opposed to strict gun controls, that seems like it should be a boost for the Democrats in the midterm election.

Despite that, many Democratic strategists worry that the gun control issue could backfire. Part of this concern stems from the fact that many Senate races are being held this year in GOP friendly states like West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. Democrats talking gun control in those states could hand victories to the other team.

But, even beyond certain states, buried in the Politico article is the fact that voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on the gun issue. Forty-one percent (41%) trust the GOP while 37% prefer the Dems. That may seem odd given apparent support for increased gun control, but the polling also showed that a plurality of Americans believes protecting the right of citizens to own guns is more important than limiting gun ownership.

The Democratic woes on this topic are probably the result of cultural differences more than narrow political positions. They simply don’t know how to talk to gun owners.

Most Republicans and half of all independents live in a household with a gun. According to Pew Research, just 25% of Democrats do the same. Guns are very rare in heavily Democratic urban areas, very common in Republican rural America, and fairly common in the contested suburbs.

Culturally, this means the Democrats live in a social circle where few own guns and many view them as an unmitigated evil with no redeeming qualities. Following a horrific mass shooting, they wonder when the rest of America will wake up and agree with them.

But most Americans have a more nuanced view. Rather than seeing guns as evil, 67% of gun owners say a primary reason they have a gun is for protection. Yes, they know that guns can cause problems, but the thought of giving up their gun makes them feel less safe.

Following a horror like the Parkland shootings, gun owners see children who were left unprotected. According to Pew data, 66% of gun owners believe teachers and other officials should be allowed to carry guns in elementary, middle, and high schools.

The polling data can’t possibly capture all the nuances of this discussion. Some people might think it’s great to have armed security guards at the school but want to keep guns away from teachers. Others might have different views. But the fact remains that many Americans believe both that guns can do great damage and are also essential for protection.

Importantly, regardless of the specific details, most Americans see that there are positive benefits to owning a gun. In fact, even half (52%) of non-gun-owners can see themselves owning a gun in the future.

In raw political terms, this helps explain how polls can show strong support for certain gun control measures while also showing that voters trust Republicans more on the issue. Many current and future gun owners can support modest restrictions such as background checks and waiting periods. But they get nervous with politicians who sound like such restrictions are only the first step to getting rid of all guns.

TIME TO CHANGE THE ELECTION GAME

Posted on February 22, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

For political junkies, Monday’s release of a new map for Pennsylvania’s Congressional Districts was one of the biggest news events of the 2018 midterm elections. The State Supreme Court imposed new District boundaries for every single district in the state and created more opportunities for Democrats.

The impact of this ruling has national implications. Prior to the new Pennsylvania map, the projections at ScottRasmussen.com showed that even with a decent midterm turnout for the Democrats, the GOP might cling to a narrow 219-216 majority in the House of Representatives. With the new map, the same projections show the Democrats picking up three more seats and winning control of Congress.

Of course, there’s a long way to go until November and the battle for control of Congress may not end up as close as it appears today. But the fact that a court ruling in a single state could alter control of Congress reveals a much deeper problem with American politics. Rob Richie, Executive Director of FairVote has spent years stating the uncomfortable truth that “American voters don’t select their Representatives, the Representatives select the voters.”

More precisely, both Republicans and Democrats draw district boundaries to select groups of voters who will vote for their team. While there will be elections in all 435 House Districts this year, the way the boundaries were drawn pre-ordained the winner in at least 390 of them. In November, over 90% of voters will have no meaningful choice and no say as to who represents them in Washington. That’s why Members of Congress typically have more job security than a tenured college professor.

This wretched dynamic contributes mightily to the dysfunction of Congress and to the nation’s toxic political environment. It is time to seriously explore and experiment with other mechanisms for electing Members of Congress.

It’s worth pointing out that the Constitution does not mandate our current system of electing representatives by District. Originally, the states were allowed to select their Representatives in whatever manner worked for them. It would be great to once again allow and encourage states to experiment with new approaches to empowering voters.

One experiment might be to use some form of proportional representation. If 60% of the voters in a state voted for a Republican, 60% of the Representatives would be Republican. That has a certain intrinsic appeal and insures that every vote would truly count. It would also provide an opening for third parties to gain traction because they could attract enough support to win a seat or two in Congress. That can’t really happen in the winner-take-all district approach.

There are other approaches worthy of consideration as well. Check out FairVote.org to learn about Ranked Choice voting and additional alternatives. It would be wonderful for our nation to have state and local governments experiment and see which approaches give voters the greatest power to hold politicians accountable.

The 90% of Congress that the status quo protects from electoral competition won’t like these changes. But, it’s way past time to end the practice of representatives picking their voters.

The Constitution Is Not The Problem

Posted on February 15, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Writing for The Week, Ryan Cooper made his case that “America’s Constitution is terrible. Let’s throw it out and start over.”

While most Americans revere the document that created our government, Cooper is not alone in his disdain for it. Law professors Adrian Vermeule and Eric Posner expressed their opposition in a book that dreamed of doing away with checks and balances and Constitutional limits on the president. The opposition even includes Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg who has stated that the U.S. Constitution is not a good model for other nations to follow.

Why do they oppose the Constitution? Cooper says “the major problem… is that it creates a system in which elections generally do not produce functioning governments.” He worries that even when one party is completely in charge, only “one big law per year” can get passed. Others express similar concerns about the difficulty political leaders face trying to implement their agenda and guide the nation.

Such comments reveal more about the critics than they do about the flaws of the Constitution. An underlying assumption seems to be that politicians and government must be free to act quickly and efficiently to lead the nation forward. If writing lots of new laws each year—and changing them after every election—was really what the country needed, the Constitution would indeed be a problem.

However, the Constitution recognizes that politicians aren’t nearly as important as they think they are. Positive change in America almost always begins far from the halls of power in official Washington. Two guys who dropped out of college in the 1970s have played a bigger role in shaping the world that we live in today than all 8 presidents who have served since then. Those two dropouts were named Steve Jobs and Bill Gates.

Their achievements reflect the fact that the culture leads while politics lag behind. In the culture, shared experiences and new technologies empower communities to solve society’s problems. Every day, countless individuals and organizations find ways to make the world a little bit better.

In this model, the best political leaders don’t force their agenda on the public. They don’t pretend that their policies and legislation will determine the fate of the nation. Instead, they recognize that government is supposed to follow the people, not rule over them. Politicians are to perform a modest role of giving voice to the decisions that have already been made by the American people.

Given the ambitions of politicians, it’s easy to understand why they would chafe at this more modest role. For those who live and breathe politics, it’s hard to admit that political fixes cannot solve our nation’s health care and education systems or other problems. Those solutions will come from young men and women working in obscurity today to change the world. They will build upon the accomplishments of Jobs and Gates and create next-generation solutions for this generation’s community needs.

All Americans should be thankful for the fact that the Constitution makes it harder for politicians to block such progress. Even more, we should be thankful that American culture remains deeply committed to our nation’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.

One Major Difference Between 2010 and 2018

Posted on February 8, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Republicans are understandably nervous about the parallels between the 2010 midterm elections that brought them to power and the 2018 midterms where Democrats envision a return to power.

Eight years ago, a polarizing new president was facing his first midterm election. Progressives and conservatives offered wildly different interpretations of his every word. Despite polls showing his major legislative dream was unpopular, that president relentlessly pursued it. His efforts inspired a resistance known as the Tea Party.

On top of that, unnerving interim elections rattled the president’s party. A Republican won the Governorship in New Jersey which was about as unusual as a Democrat winning a 2017 Senate race in Alabama. And, of course, there was the real shock of Scott Brown’s upset victory in Massachusetts. If a Republican could win Ted Kennedy’s old seat in a wave year, it’s certainly easy to imagine Democrats winning 2018 Senate races in states like Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia.

Adding to Republican nightmares, the general trend goes back a lot further. Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all came into power with their party in control of the White House. All three lost Congress during their tenure. Never before in American history have we witnessed such a three-peat. Voters have fundamentally rejected both political parties and are constantly in a mood to throw the bums out.

As we head into the 2018 midterms, there is a reasonable chance that President Trump could become the fourth straight president to lose control of Congress. To win a majority in the House, Democrats need to gain 24 seats. In four of the last ten midterm elections, the party out of power has picked up more than 24 seats and the political environment currently seems strong for the Democrats. It’s easy to identify where the Democrats could make their gains. At ScottRasmussen.com, we currently rate 45 House races as potentially competitive. Thirty-eight of them are currently held by Republicans.

For all the similarities, however, there is one huge difference between 2010 and 2018. It’s the difference between Obamacare and the Republican tax cut.

After it passed, Obamacare never gained ground in the court of public opinion. There were no short-term benefits for voters but many unpleasant surprises. Millions were unable to keep their doctor, buying insurance didn’t mean you could find a doctor who would take it, and the prices went up rather than down. Over time, the reality of Obamacare proved to be such a drag on Democrats that Republicans now hold more political power than at any point since the 1920s.

In contrast, the tax cut has already seen a big jump in public approval because the results have pleasantly surprised voters. When the bill was being debated, nearly half expected their own taxes would go up. Now, 90% are finding more money in their paychecks because their taxes have gone down. Not only that, millions of voters have received cash bonuses and pay raises while the news is filled with stories of companies expanding and hiring more workers. Once again, reality is more powerful than rhetoric.

Republicans undoubtedly face a difficult midterm election this year, but the tax cut legislation may enable them to minimize their losses. It might even be enough for the GOP to retain control of Congress.

The President Presses His Advantage on Immigration

Posted on February 1, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Last week, I noted that President Trump won the shutdown because he instinctively understood the strategic situation far better than Senate Democrats, establishment Republicans, and his other beltway critics. He knew he had a stronger position than the Democrats and used that understanding to his advantage.

This week, in his State-of-the-Union Address, the president showed that he intends to press that advantage in ways that will help Republicans on Election Day. That was especially clear in his most memorable line, “Americans are Dreamers, too.”

In just four words, a president not known for his eloquence turned years of Democratic branding and messaging against them. Trump brazenly and succinctly re-defined the public imagery surrounding the term Dreamers in a way that infuriated the political left. Topher Spiro of the liberal Center for American Progress, called it “intentionally divisive.” CNN reported that others thought the line “marginalized immigrants.”

A more accurate description is that the president has effectively marginalized progressives in the immigration debate.

He did so in a couple of ways. First, as Newt Gingrich noted, the president’s phrase “shifted the focus from a small group to the entire nation.” Politically, that’s a very astute move.

Second, and more importantly, the president tapped into the nation’s deeply held belief in America as the land of opportunity. We see ourselves as a country where people are free to pursue their own dreams and make their own life choices. Most believe that Americans have the opportunity to work hard and create a better life for their children and grandchildren.

We know it’s not perfect, but we want to make it better by creating more opportunities for everyone.

In fact, it is this deeply held belief that makes us sympathetic towards those who were brought here illegally by their parents. We understand why parents would want to give their children the chance to live the American Dream and grow up in the land of opportunity. Many of us, myself included, are proud of the fact that so many millions of people from all around the world think our country is the place to pursue their dreams.

But for that to work, we need to insure that our nation is truly a land of opportunity for all.

Seen in this context, the issue is not a technical question of how to address the legal status of the so-called Dreamers. The real question is how can we insure that the American Dream is alive and well for all?

For that question, border security must be part of the answer. Many Americans find it inconceivable that we don’t have better border security to protect our nation against terrorists and criminals. They can’t understand a political class that refuses to acknowledge the importance of such a basic value.

This is the reality that President Trump grasped and acknowledged with his “Americans Are Dreamers, Too” line. He may not present the details as well as the wonks who pore over position papers all day, but he gets the big picture. In that, he’s behaving like a real estate developer who understands that the most important value of any property is the location. And, on the issue of immigration, the location of his position is squarely in line with the American people.

The Art Of The Shutdown

Posted on January 25, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

President Trump didn’t respond to the so-called shutdown of the federal government in the way that the political class thought he should. He didn’t get personally involved in detailed negotiations to end the impasse and didn’t convey a sense of crisis to the American people.

When all was said and done, this skirmish showed the dangers of underestimating President Trump and his ability to connect with voters on issues the political elites ignore. His approach worked because he instinctively understood the strategic situation far better than Senate Democrats, establishment Republicans, and his other beltway critics.

First, the president recognized that the term “shutdown” is a dramatic overstatement of what really was going on. It’s true that the budget dispute created stress for government employees who were to be furloughed, but the overwhelming majority of government services continued uninterrupted. In fact, outside of the DC area, nobody really noticed any impact.

If you “shut down the government” and nobody notices, that creates far bigger ideological problems for Democrats than Republicans. So, the president directed his Administration to minimize the impact of Congressional dysfunction on the American people.

Second, the president understood that the fate of the Dreamers is only one part of a much larger immigration issue. As Clinton pollster Mark Penn has noted, the American people want an immigration deal that protects the Dreamers but also includes serious border security measures. Voters reject the open border policy espoused by many Democrats.

If Chuck Schumer’s party wants to protect the Dreamers, all they have to do is accept a border wall and other security measures. If they don’t, the president will happily bring the dispute to voters in November and the Republicans will likely pick up a few Senate seats.

President Trump also understood the appeal of fighting back against politics as usual. Republican voters have varying degrees of discomfort with President Trump’s demeanor, but they love it when he fights the media and the political class.

Rather than cowering and seeking to appease the Washington Post and New York Times, the president brashly blamed the Democrats for whatever problems resulted. That attitude is something many Republican and independent voters can applaud. In practical terms, it’s likely to increase GOP enthusiasm as Election Day approaches.

I am not suggesting that President Trump has suddenly become popular with the American people. His approval ratings have rebounded a bit but remain low by historical standards. It is hard to imagine them moving significantly higher by November.

But it’s important to remember that most voters had an unfavorable view of the president on the day they elected him. A significant number didn’t believe he was qualified to be president but still thought he was preferable to Hillary Clinton.

That reality should haunt Democrats in the wake of the “shutdown” debacle. President Trump, deal maker in chief, broke all the political class rules about how to handle the situation. And, in so doing, he highlighted some of the least attractive features of his opponents’ position. If he is able to keep it up, the Democrats may be at risk of once again making Republicans the lesser of two evils.

WHERE TO LOOK FOR THE WAVE

Posted on January 18, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

It’s normal for the party out of power to gain ground in a midterm election. The big question in 2018 is whether the Democrats will gain enough ground to win a majority in the House of Representatives.

While the political winds currently favor the Democrats, 390 of the 435 House races are pretty well locked in for one party or the other. Only 45 races are even somewhat competitive.

Still, a race by race analysis on ScottRasmussen.com suggests that a normal midterm gain would get the Democrats very close to their goal.

The starting point is 187 races that are rated as either Strong or Likely Democratic and nine more tilting or leaning in that direction. With decent midterm turnout, the Democrats would win all of these races bringing their total to 196.

With a good midterm turnout, the Democrats could also win just about all of the toss-ups or races currently just tilting in the GOP direction. These are races like the open seat contest in Washington’s 8^th Congressional District. Republican incumbent Dave Reichert opted out of a re-election battle in a District where Hillary Clinton attracted more votes than Donald Trump. Barack Obama also carried the District in both 2008 and 2012.

While nothing is certain in politics, Washington-08 is the type of race Democrats should expect to win with a good mid-term performance. At ScottRasmussen.com, we place 17 races in this category. Winning them all would get the Democrats to 213 seats, still five votes short of a majority. To get over the top, the current minority party will need an electoral wave that washes out some seats that would remain in GOP hands during a normal election cycle.

At ScottRasmussen.com, we’ve identified 19 races that currently Lean Republican but could be at risk in a wave election. That means the best way to tell if a wave is coming is to follow these 19 races. If the Democrats do well in these campaigns, they will have a very good chance of winning a Congressional majority. On the other hand, if the GOP can solidify its position in these races, there will be no wave and the Republicans will preserve a narrow majority.

The nineteen wave watch districts are California-45 (Mimi Walters), Georgia-6 (Karen Handel), Illinois-6 (Peter Roskam), Illinois-12 (Michael Bost), Iowa-1 (Rodney Blum), Iowa-3 (David Young), Kansas-2 (Open), Kansas-3 (Open), Kentucky-6 (Garland Barr), Maine-2 (Bruce Poliquin), Minnesota-3 (Erik Paulsen), Michigan-8 (Mike Bishop), New Jersey-7 (Leonard Lance), New Jersey-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen), Pennsylvania-7 (Patrick Meehan), Pennsylvania-8 (Brian Fitzpatrick), Pennsylvania-15 (Open), and Utah-4 (Mia Love).

Geographically, many of these districts should be friendly to Democratic challengers. Hillary Clinton won seven of the 19 districts and came very close in five more. Additionally, ten of the nineteen are from states Clinton won in her presidential bid. Four others are from Pennsylvania, a state that the president carried by less than a percentage point in 2016.

Obviously, it’s very early in the campaign season and a lot can change by November. But the Democratic path to a Congressional majority must almost certainly pass through these 19 Congressional Districts.

Election 2018 Scoreboards: Who’s Up and Who’s Down?

Posted on January 11, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

Looking ahead to Election 2018, the numbers are close enough for either party to end up in control of the House, the Senate or both. The final outcome will be determined by a combination of the races in play, the fundamentals in each race, and the strength of the political winds in November.

To track all of this, I’ve rolled out a new service at ScottRasmussen.com that will provide constantly updated Scoreboards for the Senate, House, and Governor’s races. In addition to the overall scoreboards, we provide a status and background page for each and every race.

Currently, the Senate Scoreboard shows that if the Democrats get good turnout on Election Day, they could end up with a 51-49 majority by picking up Republican held seats in Nevada and Arizona.

On the other hand, if the Republicans enjoy a good night, they could add to their current majority and end up with a 55 to 45 advantage. In that case, Republicans would pick up seats currently held by Democrats in Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and West Virginia.

At ScottRasmussen.com, our Scoreboards will always present a range of potential outcomes to reflect the reality that none of us know what the political environment and turnout will be in November. Most likely, the gap between the different possible outcomes will grow smaller over time as we get a better handle on the dynamics. But, given our volatile political environment, even that can’t be taken for granted.

In the House of Representatives, our Scoreboard currently shows that a good Democratic turnout would leave Nancy Pelosi’s party just short of a majority with 213 seats (218 are needed for control). That’s a fairly normal midterm election result with the party out of power gaining ground.

However, some people anticipate this could be a “wave” election for the Democrats with extraordinary turnout. If that happens, they could end up with a solid majority of 232 Democrats to just 203 Republicans.

Currently, the individual race ratings at ScottRasmussen.com are calculated by aggregating the projections of pundits such as the Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Decision Desk, and Inside Elections. As the year unfolds, we will be adding other pundits, additional data, and our own assessment to the calculation. All information used to reach our decision for each race will be available on the site.

It’s important to stress the preliminary nature of all this and how many different factors could shift the results. One major factor is that court cases in several states have so-far successfully challenged the maps that define their Congressional Districts. If these maps are re-drawn in advance of the 2018 elections, that could have a significant impact on the final outcome.

In addition to rating the races, ScottRasmussen.com will provide a wealth of additional information through a partnership with Ballotpedia, the encyclopedia of American politics. Currently, we provide access to candidate bios, key demographic data, and Ballotpedia’s profile of the race. In the coming weeks and months, we’ll be adding a wealth of other information concerning issues, key votes, endorsements, prominent campaign spokespersons, campaign ad reviews and more.

Regardless of what happens on the campaign trail, ScottRasmussen.com will be the place to follow it and understand it.

THE GROUND IS SHIFTING UNDER OBAMACARE

Posted on January 4, 2018 | by Scott Rasmussen

President Trump has perfected the art of antagonizing his opponents with provocative tweets. He demonstrated this skill recently in declaring that the tax reform act, by repealing the Obamacare mandate, had effectively repealed Obamacare.

This generated a number of stories from left leaning pundits pointing out that there’s a lot more to Obamacare than the mandate. Sarah Kliff, writing for Vox.com, noted that many Republican voters believed the president and hoped that would bring an end to efforts to undo the rest of Obamacare.

But, many Republicans in Congress seem intent on continuing to fight for repeal of the controversial law. A skeptical report in The Hill noted that the GOP had tried and failed to accomplish that goal in 2017. In their view, “nothing significant has changed since then that would now make the path easier. In fact, the obstacles appear even greater now that Democrat Doug Jones has been elected to the Senate from Alabama.”

It’s true that there is more to Obamacare than the mandate. It’s also true that, in a purely political sense, there’s little reason to believe that Republicans will be able to repeal Obamacare in 2018.

But the repeal of the Obamacare mandate fundamentally changes the political dynamics in the real world far from Washington, DC.

Last year, an estimated 15 million Americans would have dropped out of Obamacare if they could. Now they can. Another 6.5 million paid a fine rather than sign up for coverage. This means that more than 20 million people directly benefit from the repeal of the mandate.

Most of these people would prefer to buy insurance that meets their needs, but the Obamacare mandate did more than say that people had to buy insurance. It said they had to buy a very comprehensive and expensive set of benefits. Especially for young people, it was often far more insurance than they needed and far more costly than they could afford.

The reality is that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to health insurance. Different people have different needs and preferences.

This reality will create a demand for a variety of insurance options to meet a variety of needs. Some people will prefer more comprehensive coverage and higher premiums. Others will opt for less coverage and lower premiums. All will be covered against catastrophic events but day to day coverage will vary.

Sooner or later, Congress will begin offering ideas to meet this demand. One proposal introduced last year would allow insurance companies to offer a variety of options so long as they offered at least one plan with the full Obamacare coverage. Once those plans are available, they will find plenty of eager buyers.

As younger Americans consider the alternatives, they will certainly take advantage of the fact that we live in an era of rapid technological innovation. Self-monitoring of their own health is leading millions to make better lifestyle choices. The ability to conduct EKG’s on your smartphone is already here and soon people will be taking x-rays on the mobile devices.

Whether or not these innovations technically repeal all of Obamacare is really beside the point. They will accomplish something far more important—bringing down the cost of health care while improving the health of the nation.

A Viewers Guide to the Midterm Elections

Posted on December 31, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it’s impossible to know how strong they’ll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect.

In the Senate, the races to watch will be held in Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. Nevada’s Dean Heller is the only Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill are Democrats fighting to keep their job in states that President Trump carried by nearly 20 points.

These three are must win states for the Democrats. If they win all three, a series of other close races could very well break their way to give Democrats majority control of the Senate.

If the parties split these races, the GOP would likely hang on to a narrow Senate majority. There just aren’t enough other races for the D’s to pick up seats.

At the other extreme, if the Republicans sweep all three, additional Democratic incumbents might also be in trouble. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp would be at risk and the GOP could make significant gains.

Of special importance in these races is the fact that the Senate plays a key role in judicial appointments. Voters in Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota will want to avoid giving Democrats the ability to block President Trump’s judicial appointments. That alone could keep the Senate under Republican control.

Shifting to the House, the Democrats are almost certain to pick up seats because the party out of power just about always gains ground in the midterms. However, with 435 seats in play, there are no “must-win” races for either team.

There are, however, a few races to give a sense of how good a night the Democrats are likely to have. The first is Illinois-6, currently held by Republican Peter Roskam. This suburban district was carried by Hillary Clinton. Not only that, special elections this year have shown that the GOP is struggling to hang on to suburban voters. If Roskam is still competitive come November, the GOP might hold their losses to a dozen seats or so.

A more difficult race for the Democrats is Utah-4, currently held by Mia Love. Utah is typically hostile territory for Democrats but they’ve recruited a good challenger in Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams. Still, this is the kind of seat the D’s could win only on a very good night. If we get to November and this race looks competitive, it means that the Republicans have already lost suburban seats like Roskam’s and the Democrats could pick up 35-40 seats. They need just 24 to win control.

The biggest factor in determining control of the House will be the economy. A strong economy helps the GOP immensely (especially after passage of tax reform). However, a second critical factor might be how much Democrats talk about impeaching President Trump. If they do that rather than focusing on issues, it will be good news for the GOP.

None of us can know what things will look like in November, but right now control of the House seems to be a pure toss-up.

Politics of Tax Reform Depends Upon Salesmanship of President Trump

Posted on December 21, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen

Many Democratic political leaders have convinced themselves that the Republican tax reform bill will be a great boost for the Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. They could be right, but the outcome is far from certain. Instead, the political implications will be determined by how the economy performs and President Trump’s salesmanship.

The economy matters most of all. If it sputters or tanks in 2018, nothing will save the Republican majorities in Congress. But if the economy keeps improving, President Trump will have a chance to turn tax reform into a political windfall for his party.

Presidential salesmanship has always had a big electoral impact. In 2002, Democrats thought that the Bush tax cuts and the President’s drive to invade Iraq would doom the GOP. Instead, the president campaigned aggressively on his agenda to help his party regain control of the U.S. Senate.

In 2004, President Bush’s poll numbers were soft heading into the summer and many expected he would lose his bid for re-election. At the time, the War on Terror was the top issue in the nation. As the president campaigned, confidence in the U.S. efforts improved and so did the president’s poll numbers.

In 2012, President Obama’s poll numbers were also soft heading into the summer of his re-election bid. At that time, the key issue was the economy rather than a national security focus. But as the president campaigned, public confidence in the economy improved enough for President Obama to be re-elected.

So, the key question for 2018 will be President Trump’s salesmanship. With a decent economy, he’ll have a lot to work with and sell. In addition to tax reform, he’ll point to the very significant steps he’s taken to reduce the regulatory burden on the economy. And, he’ll benefit from the fact that only about 5% of Americans will see their taxes go up next year. According to the left-leaning Brookings Institute, over 80% will see a tax cut averaging over $2,000.

If the president can convince enough swing voters that his regulatory and tax reforms are responsible for creating a better economy, the Republican Party could have a relatively good midterm election.

Another advantage for the president and his party is that ten Senate Democrats are running for re-election in states won by the president in 2016. A good sales effort by the president will make it difficult for Senate Democrats to explain their vote against tax reform in states like Indiana, Missouri, and West Virginia.

In addition to the economic message, the president will also be able to emphasize his appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court and other judicial appointees. In many Republican leaning states, that will be a very powerful reason to retain a GOP Senate majority.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that Republicans are going to have a good election night next November. Midterm elections almost always result in losses for the party in power. However, the extent of those losses will depend on what happens between now and next November rather than by the details of the tax reform bill.

Republican Civil War Could Hand Senate to Democrats

Posted on December 15, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen

With Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama, Democrats now have at least a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in the 2018 elections. It’s a difficult path to be sure, but it could happen.

The first step will be for Democrats to successfully defend all of their Senate incumbents next November. That’s not going to be easy because the list includes 10 running in states that voted for Donald Trump. But, the results from Alabama suggest that it could happen. If it does, all Democrats would need to win the Senate is to pick up a pair of GOP seats. And they definitely have a chance to do so in Arizona and Nevada.

The Alabama results indicate that Democrats might be positioned for a very strong midterm election. Especially notable was the strong African-American turnout that lifted Jones to victory. If minority voters remain engaged at similar levels next November, Republicans will have an enormous challenge on their hands.

Not only that, many Republicans chose to stay home rather than vote for Moore. If Republican turnout is depressed and minority turnout is up, the Democrats could win both Houses of Congress. And, if that wasn’t enough, nearly half of college educated white women in Alabama showed up and cast a vote for the Democrat.

If the same trends continue in 2018, it will be a nightmare election for the GOP.

While some would like to write off the stunning upset in Alabama to a flawed candidate who ran a terrible campaign, the Moore candidacy was really just the symptom of a much deeper problem: Republican voters have little trust or confidence in the Republican establishment.

It’s hard to blame them. After all, the establishment spent seven years collecting votes on a promise to repeal Obamacare. Voters gave the GOP control of Congress and the White House only to learn that the elected politicians didn’t really mean it. For many, that wasn’t really a surprise. It simply confirmed what they had seen before. Politicians are good at making promises but not so good on delivering.

Since GOP voters have come to see little value in sending traditional Republicans to Washington, they have become more and more attracted to people who will fight the status quo. Occasionally, that leads to a quality Senator like Mike Lee from Utah. More often, however, it leads to candidates like Roy Moore, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock who lose elections that Republicans should win.

Establishment leaders are correct to point out that a more careful vetting process and thoughtful candidate selection would lead to more Republican victories. But that doesn’t mean they are blameless in the party’s Civil War. Quite the opposite, in fact; a health leadership would seek out quality candidates who can truly represent their voters, run a successful campaign, and then deliver on their promises.

Until the Republican leaders can change their tune and earn the trust of their voters, the party’s Civil War will continue. That will lead to losing other elections they should win, and quite possibly to the Democratic control of the United States Senate.

76 Years Ago, It Was A Woman Who First Addressed the Nation About Pearl Harbor

Posted on December 7, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen

There are events in history that no one alive will ever forget. But time moves on and those who will never forget eventually leave this earth. The rest of us know it only from the history books.

One of those events was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Only a handful of Americans alive today actually remember the day President Franklin Roosevelt said would forever live in infamy. Even fewer remember that the first Administration spokesperson to address the nation that day was not the president, but First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt.

In those days, radio was the hot communications technology and just about all Americans listened to it. President Roosevelt famously bonded with the American people through a series of “Fireside Chat” broadcasts. But the First Lady also hosted a weekly show that aired every Sunday night.

Upon learning of the Sunday morning attack on Pearl Harbor, the decision was made for Mrs. Roosevelt to go ahead with her regular weekly broadcast. She did, however, change the introduction to say she was speaking “at a very serious moment in our history.” Her commentary informed the nation that “The Cabinet is convening and the leaders in Congress are meeting with the President.”

The First Lady went on to disclose the treacherous fact that “the Japanese ambassador was talking to the president at the very time that Japan’s airships were bombing our citizens in Hawaii and the Philippines.”

Mrs. Roosevelt made it clear that all Americans were involved in this struggle. Although it’s impossible to imagine today, the political elites in the 1940s were not exempt from the obligations imposed on other Americans. Speaking as a mother, the First Lady shared her concerns. “I have a boy at sea on a destroyer, for all I know he may be on his way to the Pacific. Two of my children are in coast cities on the Pacific.”

But she maintained her poise. “We know what we have to face and we know that we are ready to face it.” She expressed confidence that “Whatever is asked of us I am sure we can accomplish it. We are the free and unconquerable people of the United States of America.”

And then she did something no political figure would do in the twenty-first century. Rather than encouraging everyone to obsess over the latest new and political responses, the First Lady said it was time to “go about our daily business.” But to do so “more determined than ever to do the ordinary things as well as we can.” She added that “when we find a way to do anything more in our communities to help others, to build morale, to give a feeling of security, we must do it.” And then Eleanor Roosevelt practiced what she preached by going “back to the program we had arranged.”

That last bit of advice makes as much sense today as it did 76 years ago. It’s important to be aware of the news and political responses, but it’s the daily business of life that is even more important. The way to move our nation forward is to “do the ordinary things as well as we can” and “do… more in our communities to help others.”

Thank you, Eleanor Roosevelt.

What if Roy Moore Wins?

Posted on November 23, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen

When Donald Trump appointed Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions to serve as Attorney General, it was widely assumed that his permanent replacement would be a Republican. But the scandals and allegations surrounding Republican nominee Roy Moore have challenged that assumption.

It would be a stunning turn of events for a Democrat to win in a state Donald Trump won by 28 percentage points. If that happens, as I noted last week, Democrats might win control of the Senate in 2018.

But what would it mean if Roy Moore wins?

A few things are pretty obvious. First, it would indicate that the Democrats have no realistic chance of winning anywhere in the South. The toxicity of the Democratic brand in rural states might also indicate problems for Democratic Senators running for re-election in West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana.

Second, a Moore victory would be further proof of how little credibility the national media has outside of the political class. Many who are troubled and offended by Moore are also troubled and offended by the apparently partisan behavior of the Post. Why didn’t the left leaning paper report Moore’s problems before the Republican primary? If they had done so, Moore wouldn’t be the GOP nominee and the Democrats wouldn’t have a chance.

Third, it would also show the complete rejection of the Republican establishment in Washington. Mitch McConnell and his team did everything possible to block Moore. If the tarnished candidate wins, it will be because running against both national Republicans and the national media is a potent strategy.

But the deeper implications of a Moore victory, however, would be to again show that voters grade politicians on an ethical curve. No matter what the offense, voters assume that others in office have done the same or worse.

This goes to the core of the dispute between voters and the political elite. The elite view themselves as noble public servants whose wise leadership is needed to move the country forward. They believe politicians should be role models for society to follow. Most voters find such a job description laughable. Instead, politicians are generally viewed as mercenaries or brokers sent to do a particular job.

This was clear in 2016 when Donald Trump won 87% of the evangelical vote. It’s not that evangelical voters approved of President Trump’s lifestyle or thought he was one of them.

Instead, they recognized that one of the most important tasks of a president was to appoint people to the Supreme Court. Many evangelicals believe that Hillary Clinton would appoint Justices hostile to religious liberty and Trump had promised to do the opposite. In other words, they voted for Trump so they could get someone like Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court.

If Roy Moore wins, it will be with the votes of many people who find him reprehensible. They will not be voicing approval of his behavior, but sending him to do a job in the political swamp. Some will hold their nose and conclude that voting for Moore is a necessary evil. They will vote for him to help repeal Obamacare, reform taxes, cut spending, and deal with immigration.

For many Alabama voters, electing Moore may be seen as a lesser evil than giving Democrats control of the U.S. Senate.

Democrats Have a Clear Path to Senate Majority in 2018

Posted on November 16, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Until recently, it looked like Republicans were almost certain to retain control of the U.S. Senate following the 2018 mid-term elections. Many commentators noted that Nancy Pelosi’s team might have a shot at winning control of the House. But the Senate was different. Only a third of the Senators stand for election each cycle and the GOP was protected by a very favorable electoral map.

Only one GOP Senator (Nevada’s Dean Heller) is running for re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. The only other soft spot in the GOP lineup is Arizona, where Senator Jeff Flake’s fights with President Drumpf made it impossible for him to win re-election. Flake dropped out and there is an open seat in this toss-up state.

But, Republicans assured themselves, even if the Democrats win both Arizona and Nevada, they still end up only with a 50-50 tie in the Senate. In that case, Vice President Mike Pence would cast the tie-breaking vote to keep the GOP in charge.

All of a sudden, though, the landscape has shifted to give the Democrats a clear path to disrupt that narrative. The immediate cause of the shift is Alabama’s Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore. It is virtually impossible for a Republican to lose a Senate seat in the South, but Moore’s well on the way to proving it can be done.

If Democrat Doug Jones defeats Moore, the GOP majority will dwindle to 51-49. Picking up Arizona and Nevada in 2018 (while protecting all their own seats) would give the Democrats a Senate majority. That’s not an unreasonable expectation given last week’s election in Virginia.

However, the GOP problems are deeper than just Roy Moore. The underlying difficulty is their collective failure to deliver on campaign promises. After seven years of promising to repeal Obamacare if they had the power to do so, they didn’t. Some Republican voters blame Donald Drumpf for not having a sound legislative strategy. Others blame Congressional Republicans for behaving the way Congressional Republican always behave. Regardless, the bottom line is that voters did their part, their leaders did not. Some GOP voters may simply conclude it’s not worth the effort.

Additionally, because there are always surprises in politics, other seats may open up for the Democrats. While sad to contemplate, there is a reasonable possibility that John McCain will leave the Senate early. If that happens, Arizona will become the third state in half a century to host two Senate elections in the same year. And, it’s quite possible that Republicans could lose both.

To be clear, I am not saying that the Republicans will lose control of the Senate in 2018. The Democrats have problems of their own including a message that doesn’t resonate in large segments of the country. And, they are defending ten Senate seats in states won by President Drumpf. The Republicans have legitimate pick-up opportunities in several of them.

At the same time, it’s important to note the seismic shift in the midterm election dynamics. If the Democrats win in Alabama, they will for the first time have a clearly definable road to victory in the midterm Senate elections.

WILL TRUMP BECOME 4th STRAIGHT PRESIDENT TO LOSE CONGRESS?

Posted on November 9, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Tuesday’s election results suggest that Democrats have a reasonable chance of winning control of the House in 2018. If that happens, Donald Trump would become the fourth consecutive president to enter the White House with his party in control of Congress and then lose Congress during his tenure.

In some ways, this seems to be the new normal. After all, it’s a pattern that has existed for a full generation since a young Bill Clinton won the White House in 1992. But, it’s truly extraordinary in the longer arc of American history. In fact, prior to 1992, it had never even happened twice in a row.

Obviously, there’s no certainty that the Republicans will lose control of the House in 2018. And, of course, it’s not just Trump. Many Republican voters reserve a special level of hatred for the GOP establishment headquartered in Congress. Regardless of who they blame, the reality is that Republicans promised a lot would happen if voters put them in charge. And it hasn’t. They couldn’t even repeal Obamacare despite seven years of promises to do just that.

In such an environment, it may be hard to maintain enthusiasm among the GOP base. Comparing the polling data to actual results from last Tuesday highlights this reality. In 2014 and 2016, polls underestimated opposition to President Obama and Republicans reaped the benefits. Some GOP fans actually came to believe that the pollsters were intentionally understating Republican strength.

That didn’t happen in 2017. On Tuesday night, the Real Clear Politics average showed Democrat Ralph Northam with a 3-point lead. He won by nine. While it’s just a working theory, my hunch is that in all recent elections, the pollsters have consistently underestimated the enthusiasm of the opposition party. When Obama was in power, Republicans outperformed the polls. With Trump in office, we may start to see the reverse.

This suggests that something bigger is going on than simply the presidencies of Clinton, Bush, Obama, or Trump. It’s a fundamental rejection of both political parties.

The ideological diversity of the last four president gives a sense of how complete the rejection has become. They included a centrist Democrat (Clinton), an establishment Republican (Bush), a leftist Democrat (Obama), and a populist Republican (Trump). The first three were unable to satisfy voters enough to keep their party in power. Unless something changes dramatically, the Republicans under Trump will suffer the same fate.

The broader context of the political environment is that it’s been 45 years since a majority of Americans have trusted the federal government to do the right thing even most of the time. And, yet, during the 45 years, we’ve seen the growth of the Regulatory State shift more and more power to a distrusted government. And the bureaucracy has come to believe it has the authority to intervene in just about any aspect of daily life.

At the same time, thrilling new technologies have empowered individual Americans by giving them more choices and information than ever before. There is a core conflict between a decentralizing society and a centralized government that no president or political party can master.

It’s time for our political leaders to stop the pointless argument about whether the American people be governed from the left, the right, or the center. Instead, the American people want to govern themselves.

America’s Founding Ideals Are Worth Fighting For

Posted on November 2, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

These are tough times to be optimistic about America. Terror attacks in New York City, mass shootings in Las Vegas, and campus violence against targeted speakers fill the news. Rather than addressing the problems, partisan politicos act as if each tragedy is merely a platform for their own talking points.

Despite this, I am optimistic about America’s future. Pessimistic about our politics, to be sure, but optimistic about our nation.

There are two core reasons for this optimism. The first is that politicians don’t lead the nation. There are countless more effective ways that we can work together in community and create a better America. Community problem solving is all around us, although we rarely pause to consider its power.

The second reason for optimism is that Americans remain united by a core ideal that an old professor of mine called the American Creed. It’s a belief that we all have the right to live our own lives as we see fit so long as we respect the rights of others to do the same. Despite the failure of our political system, most Americans still revere our nation’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.

It is no longer enough, however, to simply share a belief in the American Creed. That Creed is being corrupted by a toxic political environment and attacked directly by extreme activists committed to its destruction. In the face of such assaults, we must actively fight for America’s noble founding values. Importantly, though, we must fight for those values through means that honor them.

More than anything else, this means we must be willing to defend the rights of those with whom we disagree. Christians who understandably want the right to practice their own faith must be willing to defend the right of Jews and Muslims and others to practice their faith.

Defending freedom is often difficult, especially when considering topics such as Hate Speech. Most Americans are understandably uncomfortable with allowing people to utter hateful racist tirades or hurl epithets at police.

For those of us who believe in free speech, it’s often hard to publicly defend the right of people to say stupid and offensive things. As we do so, it’s not enough to say freedom of speech is in the Constitution. Instead, we need to explain why it still makes sense in the 21st century. Why would giving the government power to ban hate speech create more problems than the hate speech itself?

Fortunately, there is likely to be a receptive audience for this message. A recent Cato Institute study found that 82% of Americans recognize “it would be difficult to ban hate speech because people can’t agree what speech is hateful and offensive.” Pragmatic Americans recognize that President Obama would ban entirely different types of speech than President Trump. And, just about everyone recognizes that neither president should have the power to do so.

Defending America’s noble ideals even means insuring a fair trial for a man who pledged loyalty to ISIS and mowed down innocent people in New York earlier this week. It’s hard to say that a man who wantonly killed 8 others deserves our medical care and fair procedures. But it’s not about him. It’s about showing how America’s founding ideals are what make us an exceptional nation.

Freedom of Speech Does Not Guarantee Understanding

Posted on October 25, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Daily Beast columnist Jay Michaelson is unhappy with America’s football fans.

In a thoughtful column, he argues that “kneeling for the anthem is a sign of respect, not disrespect, for our country and the values it stands for.” He adds that “To protest—for whatever cause, left or right wing—is to make real the best ideals of America: freedom of speech, democracy, the rule of law. Protesting brings those ideals into reality.”

But as players kneel in protest, America’s football fans have not been pleased. Ratings and attendance are down while public perceptions of the NFL have fallen dramatically.

There are many reasons for this, but the fundamental problem is that the message any audience sees and hears is often different than what the messenger meant to convey. That’s true in any form of communication on any subject. Michaelson has a clear idea of what he thinks the players taking a knee are trying to say. But others hear something else entirely because we all tend to view the world through our own filters and perceptions.

Many fans (or former fans) enjoy football and other sports as a space free from blatant political commentary. These fans are probably just irritated that political activists have invaded their weekend entertainment. In their view, the players are entertainers and should do what they’re paid to do.

Others have come to see the kneeling as a sign of disrespect for the flag, the nation, and the military. That may not be the intent, but that’s the perception. Michaelson recognizes this and wants us to “stop talking about their form of protest, and engage with what they’re trying to say.” But, in the eyes of many, the form of protest has become the central message of the effort.

I happen to agree with Michaelson that the freedom to protest and call attention to our nation’s shortcomings is essential to progress. Additionally, I devoted an entire chapter of Politics Has Failed: America Will Not to the tragic legacy of institutionalized racism. It is a serious issue that needs to be addressed and the NFL’s celebrity voices could play an important role in that process.

But it is also time for the protesters to recognize that their efforts may be doing more harm than good. As long as there is nothing in their employment contract to prevent kneeling for the anthem, they certainly have the right to protest in this manner. That’s what freedom of speech is all about.

But freedom of speech does not come with a guarantee that you will be understood on your own terms. Players and others may think fans are misinterpreting their intentions, but that doesn’t mean the fans are wrong. Instead, it means that the protesters must find a better way to communicate their message.

I don’t know what that might look like, and I definitely do not think the players should give up and remain silent. But it’s probably time for the protesters to declare victory and develop a new approach that can win broad support from their fans and the public at large.

Trump Proving Politicians Not As Important As They Think They Are

Posted on October 19, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Shortly after World War II, Congress passed a law requiring the federal government to assume responsibility for managing the economy. In 1961, President John F. Kennedy claimed that government stewardship was responsible for the post-War economic boom. In those heady days, there was even talk about how economists had learned to fine-tune the economy.

Looking back, the hubris of the 1960s governing elite seems laughable. Studies have shown that the best economic models of that era failed to predict most of what actually happened. We know today that the post-War boom had more to do with pent-up demand and America’s global dominance than government policies. By the 1970s, government policymakers seemed unable to understand or address the combination of high inflation and growing unemployment.

Being pragmatic, most Americans eventually came to agree with Ronald Reagan’s assessment that “government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem.” He connected with everyday Americans by declaring that the most frightening words in the English language were “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” His words still resonate today as a majority of Americans believe the federal government has too much power. Only 7% think it has too little.

But a growing political class resisted that view and retained faith in the idea that the government could manage the economy. In fact, those in official Washington came to believe that government bureaucrats could create a better nation by managing every aspect of life in America. They cheered the dramatic growth of the Regulatory State and were convinced that bureaucrats know best.

Thus began a wide divide between everyday Americans and political elites.

That background helps explain the intense hatred of President Donald Trump. Some of the hatred stems from the president’s aggressive style and tortured language. Even many of the president’s supporters cringe at some things he says and does.

But, I suspect that the deeper cause of this hatred stems from the fact that President Trump is exposing the core myth of the political class. The privileged elites in Washington think the nation needs their wise leadership, but the president was elected by people who disagree. And, the president is proving that the voters are right.

According to the political class worldview, this Administration is doing everything wrong. Rather than steady leadership from smooth talking officials, the White House has been consumed with turmoil and distracted by the president’s unpresidential tweets. The political atmosphere is more poisonous than anyone alive today can remember. The government continues to be gridlocked and dysfunctional and Congress hasn’t passed any significant reforms. President Trump has been rolling back regulations rather than giving more power to bureaucrats.

If the political class worldview was correct, the economy should be tanking. But it’s not. In fact, consumer confidence is at a 13-year high, people are feeling better about their personal finances, and businesses keep generating more jobs.

This is good news for America, but not for the political class. It’s further proof that they’re not as important as they think they are. For many in official Washington, highlighting the irrelevance of their work is President Trump’s unforgivable sin.

The Gun Control Debate is Not About Guns

Posted on October 12, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Every time a horrific event like the Las Vegas massacre takes place, it is followed by a frustrating and futile debate about the merits of gun control. People on both sides of the debate trot out talking points and talk right past each other without listening.

Much of the frustration comes from the fact that everybody would like to do something to prevent such disasters from every happening again. But, the overwhelming desire to do something is matched by the pragmatic reality that no new law, policy initiative, or government program could have prevented the gruesome events of Las Vegas. As a result, the discussion moves on to other forms of gun violence with the same sense of frustration.

The ongoing frustration stems from the fact that the debate is not really about guns. It’s about who you trust.

Those who would like to see guns strongly regulated or banned may think they are just seeking to lessen the potential harm or violence in society. But, they are also suggesting that only government officials or those authorized by the government can have a gun. For people to be comfortable with giving government a monopoly on deadly weapons requires a great deal of trust in government.

But, in 21^st century America, that’s pretty hard to find. In fact, it’s been more than 45 years since a majority of Americans trusted the federal government to do the right thing most of the time. And the distrust is growing decade-by-decade. Today only 20% trust the federal government most of the time. Only 4% “just about always” trust the feds.

It’s worth noting that the 45 years of growing distrust in the federal government has coincided with the growth of the Regulatory State. As distant and unaccountable bureaucrats have assumed more power, the disconnect between the government and the governed has grown. While the Regulatory State is designed to limit the influence of voters in government policy, most Americans believe voters should have an even greater voice.

For those who distrust the government, therefore, the notion of letting only the government have guns is absurd. From their perspective, the government already has too much power. Why would we give them more? That perspective explains why 48% of Americans believe the right to own a gun is essential for freedom. According to the Pew Center, another 33% believe such rights are important for freedom, not essential. Only 19% say that the right to own a gun is not important.

Ultimately, therefore, the gun debate is about trust. Those who defend the Second Amendment trust everyday Americans far more than they trust the government and government officials. The reverse is true for those who want to ban or strictly regulate guns.

The debate is uncomfortable for many Americans who would like to see rules and policies implemented that prevent people with mental disabilities from getting guns. It’s uncomfortable for the vast majority who would love to stop the carnage associated with gang warfare or domestic abuse. It’s uncomfortable because most Americans would like some kind of reasonable rules imposed but they don’t trust the government to be reasonable.

That Helpless, Hopeless Feeling

Posted on October 5, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Horrific, sickening, tragic, are among the words I’ve heard used to describe the news from Las Vegas. But none of them really capture the reality that such acts are utterly beyond comprehension. As I write this, official sources are still looking for a motive, but no rational motive can possibly exist. Whatever made the killer take 58 lives made sense only in some delusional world most humans can’t come close to understanding.

After the words and the images sink in, it still doesn’t seem real. But we want to know why! Who or what can we blame? What can we do to prevent this sort of thing from ever happening again?

That’s when the hopelessness sets in. We want an easy answer, but there aren’t any. In fact, while it’s hard to admit, there probably aren’t any answers at all. It’s happened before and will happen again. Humans have done terrible and sickening and horrific things to others throughout recorded history.

This journey was partially described by statistician Leah Libresco in a Washington Post column. Previously, the gun control advocate had been involved with a project documenting the reality of gun deaths in the United States.

Her team found that 63% of gun deaths involved suicides. Most of these deaths involved older men. The biggest group of homicides involved young men, generally those who were involved with gang or criminal activity. On top of that, roughly 1,700 women were murdered, generally as a result of domestic abuse.

As she explored the data looking for answers, Libresco admitted “the policies I’d lobbied for crumbled when I examined the evidence.” The more complex reality showed that passing new laws might make some people feel good, but it would not reduce gun violence. In the end, Libresco “found the most hope in more narrowly tailored interventions.” These solutions focused on the underlying causes, rather than the guns.

Unfortunately, in the aftermath of an event like the Las Vegas shooting, few people engage in the sort of careful analysis that Libresco offered. Instead, most of us respond in a visceral way. We can’t make sense of what happened and we hate the fact that there’s nothing we can do to help. We want to get rid of that sickening feeling by believing that there is a silver lining to be found. Maybe, just maybe, we think, this is the time we will learn how to prevent this from ever happening again.

Like everyone else, I desperately want to find that silver lining. I never again want to wake up to hear of another Las Vegas. But, like Libresco, I know that there are no magical cures or silver linings. It breaks my heart to tell people that the data shows their pet solution won’t solve anything, but that is the reality we must face.

There is No Proper Mix of Government, Community, and Business

Posted on September 21, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

I grew up in suburbia, and have spent various parts of my life in small towns, a Southern city, and in rural Indiana. Moving may be a hassle, but new experiences in new locations provide wonderful opportunities to learn and explore. That’s certainly true as I adjust to life in New York City, a vastly different environment than anything I’ve tried before.

Living in the city, my wife and I have encountered government as never before. We rely on the subway to get around, enjoy strolls through Central Park, routinely see police officers and traffic cops, and have heard about city regulations on just about everything we ask about. Many of the rules and regulations (but not all) make sense.

Because government is so visible in the city, many who live here have a hard time grasping why so many other Americans see government as, at best, a necessary evil. It’s not really a philosophical view or an ideology so much as just the practical reality of day to day life.

But, when I’ve lived in rural settings, the day to day reality was entirely different. People in such settings rarely encounter government and instead see a society guided by community organizations, churches, helpful neighbors, and informal arrangements. When there’s a problem to be solved, people get together and solve it. Government rules and regulations from a distant capital are often mocked as unrealistic and intrusive.

For people in such settings, it’s impossible to understand why some people think government should have the right to intrude on just about anything that involves day-to-day life.

In reality, both imagined experiences are incomplete. The heavy government presence in New York blinds many to just how much the vibrant informal society and business community do to make the city work. And, in rural areas, the reverse is true. While government plays a background role, all the other organizations and neighborhood activity typically obscure it.

A healthy society requires leadership from all organizations and individuals in the community. It cannot survive with an overly dominant government or without any government. It cannot survive without individuals, community organizations, and businesses working together and making their world just a little bit better. But, as should be obvious to all, the right mix of leadership depends upon the community. What works in New York City will not work in rural Indiana.

That bit of common sense wisdom is often missing from our national political dialogue. Too often we carry out national political debates as extensions of our local experience. People who live in cities often expect the government to regulate everything that moves and distrust those who advocate any other solutions. Those who live outside the cities typically see a government that already is doing too much and are equally distrustful of other views.

We can never resolve these differences at the national level. No matter how much some in DC want to believe it, one size fits all solutions can’t possibly work in a wonderfully diverse country like the United States. Instead, we should work to return decision making closer to home. Let every community create the leadership mix and government role that makes sense in their corner of the world. And, then, let people vote with their feet to decide what works best for them

There’s More to Governing Than Government

Posted on September 14, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

There is a mistaken notion, deeply embedded in our national political dialogue, that society is naturally divided into public and private sectors. The public sector is thought of as the vehicle for governing society and looking out for the common good. The private sector is where people merely look out for themselves.

Not surprisingly, this view is promoted aggressively by those in the public sector. In this false view of the world, governing is the responsibility of government alone. The vast majority of Americans who work and live in the private sector are told they should study the issues, get involved in campaigns, and vote. After that, the political elites want us to get out of the way and let the so-called experts run things.

In the real world, however, every relationship and organization plays a role in governing society. Our spouses, close family members, and friends play key roles in holding us accountable. They also support us, encourage us, guide us, and lend a helping hand when needed.

Moving beyond the family circle, our commitments to employers and community groups play important roles in our lives but also in terms of governing society. They often exercise authority over us and exert a significant influence over our behavior and schedules. These relationships help us to be productive members of society.

That’s true whether the associations we form are community groups in the traditional geographic sense, online communities, or a workplace. Some groups are as informal as meeting co-workers after work for a beer on Friday afternoons or starting the morning on a power walk with friends. Others are more formal, everything from churches and charities to sports leagues, theater groups, and garden clubs. And, of course, we’re just beginning to understand how Facebook groups and other new forms of community fit into this process.

Few think of these ties as having anything to do with governance, but they are absolutely vital to the governing of society. These formal and informal associations are places where people learn about, process, and begin to act upon the news of the day. That includes everything from what the president said the night before to which companies are hiring or moving away and who is sick and needs some help to get through.

When storms hit, these are the groups that mobilize the community by spreading the word and offering a plan of action. It’s happening right now in the aftermath of Harvey and Irma. Following Hurricane Sandy, the Associated Press reported that people were far more likely to seek and receive help from family, friends and community groups rather than government efforts. Obviously, government has a role to play, but it’s just one of many organizations that help make a healthy society work. In fact, the formal government rarely has the lead role.

We need to replace the mistaken view that governing is the responsibility of government alone with a more realistic recognition that that most governing of society takes place closer to home. On a day-in and day-out basis, community organizations and relationships play a bigger role in governing our society than the rules, regulations, and policies of the formal government.

The Freedom To Walk Away Holds Politicians Accountable

Posted on September 12, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Moving to a new home is an all-American activity. Roughly one out of nine people do it every year. Many stay within the same state, but we’ll be among the nearly 5 million Americans who move across state lines to establish a new home.

Some of our friends have been puzzled by the move. One noted that we managed to pick the only place that has a higher tax burden than our current home state of New Jersey. That’s true, of course, but there are offsetting benefits in terms of career, entertainment, and lifestyle opportunities. It may not be for everyone, but for us right now New York is the greatest city in the world.

Others have wondered how we will be able to tolerate the nanny-state approach of Mayor de Blasio. I’m sure we’ll find many regulations silly and annoying, but I also know that politicians aren’t nearly as important as they think they are. Despite de Blasio’s effort to protect the taxi industry by blocking Uber and Lyft, we’ll be able to use those essential ride-sharing services. The culture leads and politicians lag behind.

This move has given me the opportunity to remind my politically obsessed friends that governing is not the responsibility of government alone. Instead, every organization and relationship has a role to play in making society work. New York is a great city because of all the dynamic relationships between individual residents, small businesses, large companies, tourists, social and charitable groups, entertainers, artists, churches, synagogues, and countless other associations. The mayor and city council have a role to play, but it’s not the lead role.

We are moving to the city knowing full well that our right to vote will not have any real impact on taxes, regulations or other government policies.

But we also know that we possess a more powerful tool to hold the city government accountable. It’s the power to walk away. It works because cities and towns are in a constant competition for residents, employers and jobs.

We are moving to New York because we believe the lifestyle mix of housing, activities, taxes, and services is appealing. That mix has been created by all of the individuals, organizations, and relationships that currently govern New York City.

If for any reason that mix changes and we no longer see value in staying, we’ll leave. We’re not obligated to stay and seek reform through the political process. We don’t have to ask permission or give any explanation for our decision. We can just move to another place whenever we want.

For us and 35 million other Americans on the move this year, our decision is a personal choice. But, collectively, our power to act as consumers highlights the reality that governing is not the responsibility of government alone. We’re thankful for all who have made New York a great city and look forward to being a part of it.

The Deeper Currents of American Politics

Posted on August 31, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Back when I was a pollster, I would explain that following the daily polls was like watching a heavy rain fall on the surface of a river. There’s a lot of action and noise and splashing around but nothing that gives you a real sense of where the river is going. For that, you must look beneath the surface where the current keeps moving steadily onward and the storm is barely noticed.

The same logic applies to the state of American politics today. It’s easy to get caught up in the sound and fury of the daily news cycle, but that tells us more about our dysfunctional political system than it does about the future of our nation. When you look a little deeper and explore the currents of American society, you quickly discover that most people are moving steadily onward with their daily lives and barely notice the political storms.

Sure, most have an opinion about Donald Trump or Barack Obama or the latest political obsession, but it’s not the driving force in their lives. Instead, they are focused on family, jobs, faith, community and doing what they can to make their world a little bit better. To the degree most think about politics at all, the vast majority start with a belief that they have the freedom to live their own life on their own terms and that everybody else has the equal right to do the same. When politics is needed at all, most Americans believe in the self-governing ideal that the people are supposed to be in charge.

These are America’s founding values and they are deeply embedded in American society and culture. It’s true, of course, that our nation has never perfectly lived up to these ideals. But the deep currents of American society have been consistently flowing in the direction of freedom, equality, and self-governance since before the nation was even founded.

And, from the very beginning, there have been political elites who rejected those ideals. At the Constitutional Convention, Connecticut delegate Roger Sherman thought the people should have “as little to do as may be about the government.” Alexander Hamilton proposed that the United States should have an elected monarch who would rule until death or impeachment and have extensive powers. Fortunately, that idea didn’t sit too well with other delegates who had just finished a war against a king with too much power.

In the early days of our nation, the biggest challenges came from slave-holders who were so outraged byour national commitment to equality that they fought a Civil War to try and leave the nation. Today, the great challenge comes from a political elite who believe that they are smarter and more fit to govern than everyday Americans.

Rather than freedom, they believe in a Regulatory State where bureaucrats write the rules for the rest of us to live by. Rather than equality, they want government officials to pick winners and losers. And, rather than self-governance, they dream of a world where bureaucrats are protected from the desires of voters.

In other words, the political elites are actively trying to divert the currents of American society away from our founding ideals. Our challenge is to make sure the river keeps flowing and wears away whatever obstacles they put in place.

By Obsessing About Extremes, Media Loses Touch With America

Posted on August 24, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

The America portrayed on the evening news is unrecognizable to most Americans.

Rather than reflecting the realities of a complex and dynamic nation, the national news media seems to treat real events as little more than a Rorschach test for measuring what the political activists think is going on. Then, in solemn tones, the television presenters pass on the absurd interpretations that become a national narrative.

In TV-Newsland, America is presented as a hopelessly divided nation where hate-filled people battle over how they can get the government to give them what they want. Extremists of all political persuasions are presented as reflecting the real views of everyday Americans. It’s a scary world in which every symbolic event can be used to demonstrate that most Americans are stupid, racist, socialist or whatever other condescending view the elites wish to project.

I recognize, of course, that there’s an audience for this sort of thing. Conflict sells and that’s true whether it’s Survivor, the Bachelorette, or national politics. There’s nothing wrong with entertainment executives putting on shows that draw good ratings. But it is a great disservice to the nation to equate what happens on the nightly news to what is happening in America.

More than 90% of Americans don’t watch the evening news and experience an entirely different America. It’s an America where most people want to work hard, play hard, take care of their families, help their neighbors, and do what they can to make their corner of the world a little bit better. When someone falls on hard times, others look for ways to help out.

In this real version of America, there are 63 million community volunteers, 27 million entrepreneurs, and tens of millions of others who serve their community in different ways. Rather than begging for a dysfunctional political system to bail them out, the vast majority of Americans recognize that these community servants are the people who can actually get things done and solve the problems before us.

These Americans are more pragmatic than ideological and Instinctively committed to our founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. They are united by a belief that all of us have the right to live our lives as we see fit so long as we don’t interfere with the rights of others to do the same. Because they see it working all around them, they celebrate the fact that we create a better world by using our freedom to work together in community.

This America is not obsessed with extremists and their battles. They are also not obsessed with the petty partisan political battles than consume official Washington. Many might see those phrases as redundant, since politics in DC often seems like little more than a platform for extremists to fight their battles.

In pointing out the differences between America and the TV-Newsland version of America, I am not suggesting that the national evening news programs need to change their ways. They have found a formula that serves their niche audience and that’s what entertainment companies do. What I am suggesting, however, is that we need to look elsewhere if we want to understand what’s going on in America.

To Move Our Nation Forward, Lift Up America’s Founding Ideals

Posted on August 17, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

In the decade leading up to America’s War for Independence, much of the drama took place in and around Boston. Sam Adams was the ring-leader on the colonial side and public enemy number one to the British. He had been thinking about liberty and independence since he attended Harvard decades before. He was motivated partly because what we would now call the Regulatory State targeted his family because of their political views.

Eventually, British troops were sent to occupy Boston and keep things from getting out of hand. Naturally, the occupying force was hated and the tension between colonists and Redcoats grew. Recognizing how angry the Bostonians were, Adams worked hard to keep them from erupting into an angry mob.

On March 5, 1770, that challenge became more difficult when British soldiers fired into a mob and killed five colonists. In the colonies, the event became known as the Boston Massacre and the British were clearly at fault. As is usually the case, the truth was a bit more complex. On top of the already heightened level of tension, colonists knew that the soldiers had orders not to fire. So, they taunted the young British men, threw things at them, and dared them to shoot.

Eventually a shot was fired, people died, and the facts didn’t seem to matter. There was a definite desire in Boston for revenge rather than justice. Rather than riling them up further, Sam Adams recognized the importance of ensuring a fair trial for the soldiers. He wanted the colonists to show the world that they were the civilized party in this dispute. So, Sam and others encouraged his younger cousin to defend the British.

Out of respect for the rule of law, John Adams agreed. It was not a popular move for someone thinking of a political career. It became even more unpopular when he successfully defended the soldiers arguing that “facts are stubborn things.” His law practice suffered and he lost perhaps half his clients. But, later in life, John Adams considered taking this case at this time to be one of his finest moments.

It was actions like this that developed America’s founding ideals and defined our national commitment to freedom, equality, and self-governance. The words were nice, but the actions mattered more.

Unfortunately, a commitment to our nation’s founding ideals is lacking in our political leadership today. Some on the political left are uncomfortable with giving people freedom to decide for themselves; some on the right struggle with equality. And, politicians all across the spectrum would prefer to centralize power in their own hands rather than embrace self-governance.

As a result, our political system is badly broken. In fact, it may be broken beyond repair. It has been more than 45 years since a majority of Americans trusted the federal government. Simply put, our government does not have the consent of the governed, a reality that’s not likely to change any time soon.

To move our nation forward, we need to look away from the failed political system that divides us and focus on the noble values that unite us. It’s time to celebrate the core values of freedom, equality, and self-governance with more than words. Like Sam and John Adams, we must stand up for them even when it hurts.

White Supremacists, America Was Never Yours

Posted on August 14, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

The White Supremacists who marched in Charlottesville seemed to think that their movement is committed to taking America back. They are mistaken. They cannot take America back because it was never theirs in the first place.

It’s true that the legacies of slavery and centuries of legalized racism have long tarnished our nation’s history. That reality has always stood in conflict with our nation’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. For too many years, white Americans simply ignored the contradiction that they didn’t want to see.

That failure to confront evil did allow racists and White Supremacists to continue their hateful traditions in America. But, from the very beginning, it has been our noble ideals that defined the nation and its aspirations. Both yesterday and today, being an American means believing that all of us are created equal and have the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

The real shame, perhaps our greatest national shame, is that so many who believed in those high ideals never did anything about the grossly unfair and unequal treatment of African-Americans. Martin Luther King, Jr. called out such so-called “moderates” in his “Letter from a Birmingham Jail.” How can you claim to believe in freedom and equality without standing up for those who are denied such basic rights?

Long before that, Frederick Douglas correctly noted that tolerating slavery while celebrating the Declaration of Independence made the celebration a “sham” filled with “fraud, deception, impiety and hypocrisy.”

Tragically, many who believed the best about America turned a blind eye to this problem. On the other hand, those who advocated white supremacy never lost sight of the fact that their abhorrent views were threatened by America’s noble traditions. John Calhoun, a leading defender of slavery, was frustrated that admiration for the Declaration had “spread far and wide, and fixed itself deeply in the public mind.”

Calhoun rejected the ideal of equality and believed that black people did not deserve freedom. Such despicable views made Calhoun a traitor to America’s founding ideals just as surely as Benedict Arnold was a traitor to the young nation in the War of Independence. The treasonous behavior continued when southern states explicitly rejected America’s founding ideals and chose to fight a Civil War in defense of slavery.

Make no mistake about it, those who march under a banner of racism and white supremacy today are also traitors who reject America’s founding ideals. They are not taking America back, they are trying to undo everything that makes America great.

Those of us who believe in freedom, equality, and self-governance must not be silent.

In Politics Has Failed: America Will Not, I argue that it is well past time for the shameful strand of our history to die so that the noble strand can flourish. We must not only clearly denounce and reject the hateful voices that reject our founding ideals, we must also work together to create an inclusive society worthy of those ideals. We must accept nothing less than a free and self-governing society where, in the words of Martin Luther King, Jr., people “will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.”

Regionalization of Democratic Party Benefits GOP in Midterm Elections

Posted on August 10, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

The Democratic Party has, for the moment, become a regional party.

Only 449 counties across the nation are reliably Democratic. Five times that many—2,226—are reliably Republican. The Democratic counties are generally found along the coasts and in large urban areas.

Nowhere is the party’s abandonment of rural America more apparent than in West Virginia. For most of the twentieth century, this was a solidly Democratic state. In the first presidential election of the 21st century, however, George W. Bush carried the state and it’s voted Republican at the presidential level ever since. Last year, Donald Trump won the state with a crushing 42 percentage point victory over Hillary Clinton (68% to 26%).

Still, at the state level, West Virginia remained a Democratic stronghold until 2014. In that year, the Mountain State gave Republicans control of the state legislature and elected a Republican U.S. Senator for the first time in more than half a century. Last week, Democratic Governor Jim Justice switched parties to join the GOP.

These trends help explain why the midterm election outlook is fairly bleak for Democrats. U.S. Senator Joe Manchin is up for re-election as a Democrat. There’s no doubt voters in the state like Manchin, but there’s also no doubt they don’t like the crowd he hangs out with in Washington. As a result, Manchin is currently considered only a very slight favorite for reelection. Still, it’s far from certain.

Beyond West Virginia, the regionalization of the Democratic Party means that eight Democratic Senators are vulnerable because they are running for reelection in unfriendly territory. Three probably have a 50/50 chance to be reelected: Joe Donnelly in Indiana; Claire McCaskill in Missouri; and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. Manchin and four others are just narrow favorites: Jon Tester in Montana, Bill Nelson in Florida, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin; and, Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

On the other side of the coin, just two Republican Senators are considered potentially vulnerable: Dean Heller in Nevada and Jeff Flake in Arizona. Both have angered the Trump wing of the GOP and will face primary challenges before getting the chance to compete in a general election.

Put it all together and the regionalization of the Democratic Party limits the party’s upside potential in 2018.

On a good night for the Democrats, they would pick up the GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada while not losing any of their own seats. But, even in that scenario, the result would be a 50-50 split in the Senate. With Mike Pence casting the tie-breaking vote as Vice President, Republicans would still be charge.

In contrast, on a good night for Republicans, they might hold on to their two seats and pick up the three toss-ups in Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. That would give them a 55-45 majority in the Senate and a greater ability to advance their agenda. It’s even possible to envision the GOP having a better night if they can pick up some of the seats where Democratic incumbents are only slight favorites.

It’s impossible, of course, to know which way the political winds will be blowing on Election Day in 2018. However, it seems clear that the shrinking of the Democratic Party to a regional base will keep Republicans in control of the U.S. Senate.

Will Trump’s Low Approval Ratings Doom GOP in 2018?

Posted on July 27, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

In normal political times, a president with a 40% Job Approval rating would be a tremendous drag on his party in the midterm elections. But these are not normal times. A look back at what happened on Election Day last November suggests that President Trump’s low ratings will not necessarily doom his party in 2018.

To begin with, just 38% of voters had a favorable opinion of Donald Trump on the day he was elected. And, only 40% said they would be optimistic if he won the presidency. Yet, despite that distinct lack of enthusiasm, 46% of all voters cast their ballot to elect Donald Trump.

One big factor is that his opponent was also viewed with apprehension. In fact, a majority of voters said they would be either concerned or scared if Hillary Clinton became president. Overall, nearly one out of five voters disliked both major party candidates. When it came time to choose between the lesser of two evils, these voters overwhelmingly preferred Trump.

Looking ahead to 2018, it is quite possible that many voters unhappy with President Trump will still consider the Democrats an even bigger concern.

And, it’s also possible that many political junkies are overestimating the importance of behavior they view as unpresidential. On the day he was elected president, just 38% of voters believed Donald Trump was qualified to be president and only 35% believed he had the right temperament for the job. But 10% of all voters considered Trump unqualified yet voted for him anyway. So did 12% who voted for the current president despite believing he didn’t have the temperament for the job.

It seems that voters were looking for something bigger than what the political elites believe are appropriate characteristics for a president.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters said the most important characteristic was a candidate’s ability to bring about change. That’s not surprising given that 69% were either dissatisfied or angry with the federal government. Donald Trump won these voters overwhelmingly. The last thing they want to see is business as usual.

With all this as background for the president’s first six months in office, it seems reasonable to conclude that President Trump has met expectations. Sure, he’s unpresidential at times but most voters expected him to be. For many, though, that’s a small price to pay for adding Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.

Obviously, I have no idea what will happen between now and November 2018. If the president can somehow get the Republicans in Congress to repeal a significant portion of Obamacare, the GOP prospects might improve. If the economy keeps gaining steam, that’s even better news for the president’s party. Things could just as easily head in the opposite direction.

But these are not ordinary political times and Donald Trump is not an ordinary president. It would therefore be a mistake to assume that the midterm election results might be impacted in an ordinary way by the president’s job approval rating. There are far too many voters who disapprove of the president but disapprove of Democrats more.

Remembering Apollo 1

Posted on July 20, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

On July 20, 1969 Neil Armstrong famously took “one small step for a man” and “one giant leap for mankind.” He and Buzz Aldrin stepped into the history books that day as the living embodiment of an amazing technological achievement. We’ll hear a lot more about that trip in the coming years as we approach the 50th anniversary of the first lunar landing.

The story will be told of the U.S. responding to the Sputnik satellite and the fear that gripped many when Yuri Gagaran became the first human to orbit the earth. Our nation caught up when John Glenn took three trips around the earth in Freedom 7. After that, stunning breakthroughs became routine until the Apollo 11 mission finally put two men on the moon.

As the narrative unfolds, however, we’re not likely to hear much about Apollo 1. And, it’s a story that should be told as a reminder that great accomplishments come with great risks and a high cost.

On January 27, 1967, Gus Grissom, Ed White, and Roger Chaffee climbed into the Command Module for a launch rehearsal. Grissom was one of the original seven Mercury astronauts and had been into space on a pair of earlier missions. White had become the first American to walk in space on the Gemini 4 mission in 1965. Chaffee was looking forward to his first flight after years of training.

Tragically, a fire broke out in the Command Module on that day and there was no way to release the hatch from the inside. The three men suffered a horrific death and images of the charred Command Module shook the nation. All three men left behind a wife and young children.

Viewed from the perspective of the 21st century, perhaps the most amazing thing about the story is how quickly the space agency regrouped and put men into orbit again. In today’s world, politicians and bureaucrats might have shut the program down completely.

Back then, there were Congressional hearings, but unmanned test flights continued. It took just 20 months before Wally Schirra, Donn Eisele, and Walter Cunningham flew a redesigned Command Module into space on Apollo 7. The courage displayed by those three men was an essential part of the successful race to the moon. Throughout the flight, there was tension between the crew and ground controllers, perhaps a natural result of knowing what had happened to their friends and colleagues on Apollo 1.

After that, events moved quickly. In December 1968 Apollo 8 orbited the moon. In March, Apollo 9 flew the Lunar Module for the first time. Apollo 10 flew to within just a few miles of the lunar surface in May of 1969 and Apollo 11 made history in July.

Today, private companies are leading the return to space. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is spending a billion dollars a year to fund Blue Origin with hopes of building a colony on the lunar surface. His dreams of conquering space were inspired by watching Neil Armstrong’s first steps on the moon. For all of us who remember, it was a magical moment.

But we should never forget the price paid by Grissom, White, Chaffee, and their families to create that magic. They made it possible for Armstrong and Aldrin to step into history.

The Netflix Revolution

Posted on July 13, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

While the nation’s political elites obsess over daily controversies of official Washington, a far more significant development is taking place on television screens across America. After years of steady growth, the number of subscribers to streaming video services like Netflix has topped the number of cable subscribers.

ComScore reports that 51 million households now receive their television programming through what the industry calls Over-The-Top (OTT) television. They watch an average of 49 hours of streaming content per month. About a third of these households have dropped cable and satellite programming completely. Looking ahead, the streaming services are expected to continue growing rapidly while the cable and satellite numbers decline.

Netflix is the biggest driver of this transition. Fully 74% of households that stream video watch Netflix. The content giant accounts for 40% of all OTT viewing and nobody else is even close.
Those who mistakenly believe that change is led by political decisions made in Washington are likely to dismiss this as little more than a curiosity. Who cares whether people watch “Stranger Things” or “The 100” on Netflix instead of watching some other show on a cable network? In reality, though, the way that people consume entertainment and information has massive political implications.

In the 1970s, 94% of Americans watched one of only three national television networks. When the President of the United States gave an Oval Office address, all other programming was either cancelled or delayed. If you turned on the TV, you had to watch the president. In such a world, presidential speeches earned massive ratings (over half the country tuned in). But as soon as cable networks like ESPN, HBO, and others gave people a choice, ratings for presidential speeches declined dramatically. Today, when the president gives a speech, only the president’s base supporters and political junkies are likely to tune in. New entertainment options made the president’s bully pulpit far less powerful.

The ultimate political implications of the Netflix Revolution could be even more significant. While cable offered more choices, the timing of when to watch any given show was still controlled by network executives. Millions of people still watched the same show at the same time.

In contrast, OTT viewing schedules are entirely in consumer hands and everybody’s schedule is different. People watch what they want, when they want, and on whatever device they have handy. Among other things, this has created the phenomenon known as binge watching. Many fans watch entire seasons of their favorite show in one sitting. Some observers believe that releasing full seasons at one time has already created a compelling new form of storytelling. Whether that’s true or not, the ComScore report does show that it has increased weekend viewing time among those who use streaming services.

Not everyone, of course, enjoys binge watching. But, it’s great that each of us can decide such things for ourselves. It’s exciting to see broad cultural trends empowering everyday Americans at the expense of traditional institutions and gatekeepers. It’s especially thrilling when you realize that we live in a land where the culture leads and politicians lag behind. Sooner or later, the political system will catch up.

I can’t wait!

It’s Not About Trump, It’s About His Voters

Posted on June 22, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

In Election 2016, Democrats seemed to assume that the unpopularity of Donald Trump would be enough to keep him out of the White House. It’s true that most Americans viewed him unfavorably, but the same was also true of Hillary Clinton. Given such an unappealing choice, millions of voters decided that Trump was the lesser of two evils.

In a series of 2017 special elections, Democrats have continued to make the same mistake. They look at the president’s low Job Approval ratings and assume that simply opposing President Trump should be sufficient to win elections. That was the theory behind Tuesday’s special election in Georgia where Democrats from around the nation financed the most expensive Congressional campaign in history but still came up empty.

Blinded by rage at the president, many Democrats are struggling to come to grips with how this could happen. Convinced that the continuous headlines about Russia and special prosecutors and James Comey have made impeachment a real possibility, they failed to notice that the president’s Job Approval rating has been steady for three full months.

Perhaps the most succinct rationale was provided by Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat from Ohio: “Our brand is worse than Trump.” In other words, the president may be unpopular, but many voters in the middle still consider his team the lesser of two evils.

Data from earlier this year backs him up. Simmons Research found that 17% of voters are unhappy that Trump is president but happy Clinton isn’t. At the time Simmons did their research, 52 percent of voters were either happy that Trump was president or at least happy that he kept Clinton out of the Oval Office. Those data points were collected a little more than a month into the Trump administration, between February 27 and March 5. At that time, the president’s approval was only 44 percent, so there was an 8-point gap between the job approval and the combined support for Trump’s victory.

There is no data measuring that gap today. However, it may be even bigger today than it was a few months ago. The president’s declining job approval rating may have been offset by an increase in the number who still consider him the lesser of two evils. If so, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that a narrow majority of voters remain pleased that Clinton is not serving as president.

Tuesday’s results from Georgia indicate some support for that theory. The final results were very similar to the president’s showing in the district last fall. Anecdotal evidence also comes from the fact that many Republicans and conservatives complain about the president while also expressing relief that he added Justice Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court.

For Democrats, therefore, being opposed to Trump is not enough. They must convince some of reluctant Trump supporters that things have changed enough for the Democrats to be considered the lesser of two evils. That will require paying less attention to the president and more attention to the legitimate concerns of those who voted for him.

Ending the Federal Monopoly on Regulation

Posted on June 8, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Such hypocrisy is, of course, bi-partisan. Republicans who lauded state resistance to Obamacare are deeply troubled by state and local resistance to the Trump Administration on immigration and other issues.

The blatant hypocrisy is one of many factors contributing to a toxic political dialogue. The only way to reduce both the hypocrisy and the political tension is to do something that neither party wants to do when their team is in charge—disperse power more broadly.

No matter how much the political class wishes it were true, one-size fits all solutions simply can’t work in a wonderfully diverse society like the United States. Rules that make sense for life in Washington, DC or New York City are often absurd in Michigan or Colorado. To catch up with the reality of a decentralized pluralistic society, it is time to decentralize political power and shift ever more decision-making authority to state and local governments.

Unfortunately, America’s political class has spent the last several decades going in exactly the wrong direction by centralizing power in a Regulatory State. Based upon the flawed premise that leaders in official Washington know what’s best for the rest of us, they have worked to insulate the bureaucracy from any accountability to Congress and the American people. Such a regime is a fundamental rejection of our nation’s historic commitment to freedom, self-governance, and equality.

While twenty-first century life does need a set of rules and regulations, the power to set them should be taken away from 285,000 distant bureaucrats and brought closer to home. Congress can put the American people back in charge by passing a simple modification to the federal rulemaking process.

Just about all federal regulations should be set to automatically expire after five years (allowing for a handful of exceptions like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission). As the regulations expire, they would instantly become state regulations. Each state would then have the responsibility for enforcing the regulations within their borders.

Just as important, each state would have the authority to modify the regulations to fit their particular circumstances. California and New York might make different modifications than Idaho and Texas, but that’s a good thing because the states are so different.

The advantage to this approach is not that state regulators are wiser or more honorable than federal regulators. With the past 24 hours, I’ve had a run-in with some particularly idiotic regulations in my home state of New Jersey. But, when the rules are established on a state-by-state basis, the people hold the ultimate decision-making power.

That’s because we have more power as consumers than we do as voters. While we rarely think of it, states are always competing for residents and businesses. The average American moves 12 times during their life and nearly half live in a different state from where they were born. Bad policies hurt a state’s ability to compete and that reality places serious limits on state regulators.

To move America forward, we must end the arbitrary power of the Regulatory State. It’s time to return power to the people.

Two Ways of Looking At America

Posted on June 1, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

There are two ways of looking at America.

One approach offers hope for a bright future, focuses on common ground shared by most Americans, and is grounded in pragmatism and reality. The other offers a depressing outlook, encourages polarization, and is grounded in ideology and fantasy.

The positive approach is built upon America’s founding ideals of freedom, self-governance, and equality. At its core is a belief that the people are in charge and that the culture leads society. It acknowledges a role for government, but not the lead role. It recognizes that change begins outside the political process when people use their freedom to work together in community.

The negative approach is built upon the self-serving view of America’s political class that every problem must have a political solution. In this worldview, it is the government and elected politicians who determine the fate of the nation. Conservatives and liberals in the political class have different views about which policies are best, but they agree that elites are responsible for making the rules for the rest of us to live by.

President Theodore Roosevelt long ago expressed the underlying view of the political class by complaining that we need to talk less about the rights of individuals and more about their duty to government.

But, no matter how much the political class wishes it were so, this view of politics and government leading the nation has no basis in reality. As I note in my new book, Politics Has Failed: America Will Not, the culture always leads and politicians always lag behind. To take just one recent example, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on the nation than the combined legacies of all eight men who have been president since Apple and Microsoft were founded.

Looking ahead, while the ideological wars rage over how to reform health care, the real change will come from new technologies that give patients more control over their own health and health care choices. Pragmatic community problem solving will build upon these new tools and disrupt the health care industry in ways we can’t even begin to imagine. The politicians will then try to catch up.

These contrasting views of America lead to fundamental differences of opinion about the way government should work and the role it should play.

Those who believe in top-down rule by the political elite are frustrated with America’s constitutional system of checks and balances. They want a more energetic government that can quickly implement changes to fix whatever they believe is wrong with American society. Unfortunately, government has been moving in this direction for decades. Proponents of this view have created a Regulatory State by turning more power over to unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats in Washington.

The Regulatory State is the death star of the political class. It is meant to bring order to the nation and is built on the mistaken ideological belief that a one-size fits all approach can work in the iPad era.

Fortunately, as our dysfunctional political system continues to break down, change is coming. No matter how powerful it may seem, the Regulatory State is no match for America’s founding ideals. Things will probably get worse before they get better, but freedom, self-governance, and equality will lead us to a brighter future.

Pessimistic About Politics, Optimistic About America

Posted on May 10, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

It’s not fashionable to say these days, but I am very optimistic about America’s future. I believe that our nation’s best days are still to come and that our children and grandchildren will have much better lives than we have enjoyed.

I am optimistic despite believing that our nation’s political system is badly broken.

My personal journey from pessimism about politics to optimism about America took more than a decade. Figuring out how to explain it took an additional two years of writing and the end result is my new book, Politics Has Failed: America Will Not. Fox News analyst Juan Williams describes it as “a roadmap to genuine optimism.” He adds that the book is a “gripping, history-based account… on how change really happens before the politicians run to the front of the parade.”

The key is recognizing that politics and politicians don’t lead the nation. That’s not their job and it’s not the way America is supposed to work. We live in a land where the culture leads and politicians lag behind. For those who are skeptical of this concept, consider the reality that two men who dropped out of college in the 1970s have had a bigger impact on the world we live in than the combined legacy of all eight presidents since that time. Their names were Steve Jobs and Bill Gates.

The fact that the culture leads is good news because we are rapidly approaching a time when our political system will completely break down and need to be rebuilt from the bottom up.

Building on that premise, my book is offered as a message of hope to counter the nation’s dysfunctional and toxic political dialogue. Instead of obsessing over the failures of politicians, it’s time to rethink the relationship between politics and community. Brookings Institute scholar Jonathan Rauch calls the book “a spirited and timely reminder that civic groups, innovative businesses, and personal networks are where the real action will be in the 21st century – and that their potential to improve our lives and our country is vast.”

In America, governing is not the responsibility of government alone. Every institution and relationship in society has a role to play. My expectation of a bright future includes a massive campaign of community problem solving and a culture that remains committed to freedom, equality, and self-governance.

America is at its best when people use their freedom to work together in community. The tools of the digital revolution are giving us new and exciting ways of working together that will enable future generations to see and do many wondrous things beyond our current ability to imagine. Most important of all, however, they will help our nation draw ever closer to becoming a land filled with opportunity, liberty, and justice for all.

Mark McKinnon, a man who helped guide five successful presidential campaigns, calls the book “some of the freshest most inspiring thinking I’ve read in years… There is a light in the tunnel, and Rasmussen has found it.”

Community problem solving, fueled by the digital revolution, is poised to overcome our failed system of politics and government. We may not be able to make government work better, but that won’t stop us from making society work better.

Lessons In Democracy Learned By Juror Number 2

Posted on April 27, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Like most Americans, I groaned when the mail included a summons to jury duty. Having been there before, I envisioned three days of wasted time in a bland room with lousy internet service. Instead, I served on a jury and came away with a renewed confidence in America’s tradition of self-governance.

My service as Juror Number 2 took place in Freehold, New Jersey near a Battle of Monmouth monument. At first, I inwardly chuckled when the judge cited the history of the place to convince us of the importance of the jury system. Being a history buff, I knew the battle wasn’t as consequential as she tried to make it sound. But, I appreciated the effort to explain that the right to trial by a jury of our peers was as important as our rights to freedom of speech and religion.

As the process unfolded, I began to recognize that jury trials are in many ways a healthier expression of American democracy than our system of politics and elections.

The process of jury selection, for example, emphasized the rights of the parties to receive a fair hearing. Many prospective jurors were dropped from the trial based upon answers to 22 questions about potential conflicts and other matters. Then, those still in the pool answered questions about personal interests and relationships. Both attorneys rejected some jurors based upon those answers. No explanation was required. They were just exercising rights designed to insure an impartial jury for their clients.

This was an important reminder that we all have certain rights that cannot be taken away by our government or anyone else. Too many Americans forget this and talk as if the majority can do whatever it wants. But that’s not the way it works in a free and self-governing society.

Perhaps the biggest surprise came when everybody in the courtroom rose when we entered or left the room. The judge explained that the honor was bestowed because we were the decision makers. In effect, it was a recognition of our sovereign status in that setting. Can you imagine how much different it would be if elected officials had to stand when their constituents entered the room? Can you think of any way in which national politicians seriously acknowledge that the
people are supposed to be the ultimate decision makers in America today?

Perhaps the most important lesson of all, however, came when we were summoned for the final time as a jury. Informing us that a settlement had been reached, the judge went out of her way to explain that our time and service had been essential to the outcome. She specifically said no settlement would have been possible if this had been an administrative trial.

That, it seems to me, is the proper model for political engagement in a self-governing society.

As a jury, we were the sovereign power in that courtroom. But, we had no power at all once the parties worked things out for themselves. Knowing we were there, and wondering what we might decide, certainly had an impact on the settlement discussions. But the decision was not ours to make.

A healthy political system would encourage everyone to find solutions by working together in community. When we do that, there’s no reason for the politicians to get involved.

Thank You Jackie Robinson

Posted on April 13, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Seventy years ago this Saturday, Jackie Robinson made history by breaking the Major League color barrier. MVP awards, All-Star selections, and championships recognized his skills as a player. His very presence dramatically changed the world of baseball. Within a few months, other teams began adding black ballplayers. Over the following 12 seasons, eight of the National League MVP awards were won by black men.

Facing enormous hostility from fans and other teams, Robinson and his wife consistently demonstrated the power of nonviolent resistance years before the world ever heard of Martin Luther King Jr.

Major League Baseball appropriately honored his larger legacy by retiring his number so that nobody else on any team will ever wear number 42 again. The sole exception is on April 15 each year, Jackie Robinson Day. On that day, every player, coach, and manager on every team wears number 42 in celebration of Robinsons’ life. No other player has ever received such an honor.

It’s important to recognize that the courage and class Robinson displayed in the face of hatred and vicious personal attacks changed far more than baseball. When he first took the field for the Brooklyn Dodgers in the spring of 1947, his presence sent shockwaves throughout all of society and forced others to adapt. It generated untold millions of conversations among baseball fans who carried those discussions into other areas of life.

PBS later noted that it “was a major blow to segregation everywhere.” It wasn’t until one year after Jackie Robinson joined the Dodgers that President Harry Truman integrated the U.S. military. As always, the culture leads and politicians lag behind.

Dealing with Robinson as a member of the Dodgers led to the integration of many hotels and restaurants where the team stayed. Other organizations changed as well. The Sporting News, a paper that opposed integration of baseball, ended up naming Robinson its Rookie of the Year in 1947.

One clear impact of the cultural shift Robinson represented involved Rosa Parks.

Four years earlier, in 1943, Parks had been ejected from a segregated bus in Montgomery because she refused to give up her seat to a white man. At the time, the event attracted little notice. But, nearly nine years after Robinson’s first Major League at-bat, things had changed. When the heroic Parks again refused to give up her seat, she sparked the Montgomery bus boycott. That event lead to the emergence of Martin Luther King Jr. as a leader who applied the lessons of nonviolent resistance on an even broader scale.

Acknowledging the debt his movement owed to the ballplayer, King called Robinson “a pilgrim that walked in the lonesome byways toward the high road of Freedom. He was a sit-inner before sit-ins, a freedom rider before freedom rides.” Robinson, of course, was not the sole reason for the cultural changes that took place. But it is almost impossible to overestimate the significance of his contributions.

Jackie Robinson’s story, like so many other American stories, highlights the reality that the culture leads and politicians lag behind. It took 17 years before Congress caught up to the Brooklyn Dodgers and passed major civil rights legislation. In fact, by the time Congress got around to acting, the Dodgers weren’t even in Brooklyn anymore.

Free Local Communities to Set Their Own Minimum Wage

Posted on April 6, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Last week, Iowa Governor Terry Branstad signed a bill preventing local governments from raising the minimum wage above the statewide level of $7.25 per hour. The bill was a response to four counties passing local laws boosting the minimum to $10.10 per hour or higher. Ballotpedia.org reports that similar battles between state and local authorities to set wage and employment guidelines have taken place around the country.

Rather than blocking local governments from setting their own minimum wage standards, state governments should encourage them to do so.

At the most basic level, that’s a recognition that no two communities are identical. Of the four Iowa counties that passed higher minimum wage laws, two are home to the state’s biggest cities– Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. It’s not unreasonable to think that the cost of living in any city is a bit higher than in other rural areas of the state. A third county setting higher minimums is also among the state’s largest and is home to the University of Iowa. That might suggest a higher cost of living and also a more liberal political culture.

But the real reason that local governments should be allowed to establish a higher minimum wage is that it shifts decision making power away from politicians and puts it in the hands of Iowa residents.

As I note in my forthcoming book, Politics Has Failed: America Will Not, Americans have more power when we act as consumers rather than voters. We have the ability to hold local government accountable because we can decide where to live.

Like a small business, local communities compete to attract residents and jobs. In effect, they are selling a mix of lifestyle benefits including housing, amenities, services, and more. The price consumers pay is determined by housing costs, taxes, regulations, and other factors.

Seen in this light, the wisdom of raising the minimum wage in a particular county will be determined by the decisions of residents and local businesses. Maybe the higher minimum will attract more people or maybe it will drive away businesses and jobs. It’s even possible that the higher minimum wage will have no discernable impact. After all, it’s just one small part of the overall lifestyle mix offered by local communities.

Letting local governments set their own rules empowers people to vote with their feet. It works because local officials are competing in a very active market. The average American moves about 12 times in their lifetime and nearly 13 million move to a new county every year.

And that brings us to the fourth county that passed a higher minimum wage, Wapello County. It’s home to Ottumwa, perhaps best known as the home town of Radar O’Reilly in the hit TV show MASH. On the surface, there’s no clear reason for Ottumwa to have a higher minimum wage than other less populated areas of the state. But maybe the good people of Ottumwa know something we don’t know. Or perhaps they just made a mistake. Either way, the choice should be theirs to make.

If it works, life in Ottumwa will get better. If not, either the new law will be repealed or people will move away. Most important of all, the decision will be in the hands of the people rather than the politicians.

In 2016, Clinton Democrats Rejected Clinton

Posted on March 30, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Last week, I suggested that the 206 Pivot Counties that voted twice for Barack Obama and then voted for Donald Trump are a good place to study the changing political landscape. Data developed by Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics, shows that these counties consistently voted more Democratic than the nation at large from 1996 to 2012.

For example, in 2012, when President Obama won the national popular vote by four percentage points, he won the Pivot County popular vote by eight percentage points. In 2004, when President Bush won the national popular vote by three percentage points, John Kerry won the Pivot County vote by a single point.

On average during those five elections, the Pivot County vote was four percentage points more Democratic than the nation at large.

They weren’t always Democratic counties, however. The results in recent elections represent a significant shift from earlier results. In fact, during the six elections from 1968 to 1992, the Pivot Counties came close to perfectly mirroring the national vote. On average during that stretch, the Pivot County vote was just half a percentage point off the national totals. Three times it leaned a bit in the Democratic direction and three times towards the GOP.

The transition between the era when Pivot Counties mirrored the national mood and then became more supportive of Democrats took place with the election and re-election of President Clinton. Those years also included the most significant third party candidacy of the past century. In 1992, Ross Perot received more than 20 million votes nationally, roughly 20% of the total. In 1996, his support fell, but he still picked up 10% of the vote.

In both of those years, support for Perot in the Pivot Counties was higher than in the nation at large. It is obviously possible that there is a strong connection between support for Perot and President Trump. In both cases, the candidate represented a rejection of politics as usual and the political class.

But, it’s what happened in the Pivot Counties when Perot’s vote faded that is especially interesting. The former Perot voters became Clinton Democrats. Virtually all the decline in support for Perot in 1996 went to President Clinton. In 1992, the GOP candidate (George H. W. Bush) won 36% of the Pivot County vote while the 1996 candidate (Bob Dole) won just 37%. However, Clinton’s support in those counties jumped from 41% in 1992 to 51% in 1996.

What this suggests is that President Bill Clinton won over the Pivot Counties for the Democratic Party. He built a base of Clinton Democrats by stressing a more centrist approach than the Democratic candidates of the 1980s. Even when George W. Bush was elected twice, most voters in these counties stayed with the Democratic nominee.

But that preference for Democrats came to a dramatic end in 2016. President Trump won the Pivot Counties by an eight-point margin, 51% to 43%. Ironically, the counties that Bill Clinton won over for the Democrats rejected the party that nominated Hillary Clinton for president.

206 Pivot Counties Voted Twice for Obama Then Switched to Trump

Posted on March 23, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

There are 3,088 counties in America and only 206 of them voted for the winner in each of the last three presidential elections. In other words, these Pivot Counties voted twice for President Obama before switching sides to vote for President Trump in 2016.

The Pivot Counties had an outsized impact on the election results. Despite casting only 5 percent of the national vote total in 2016, they accounted for 51 percent of the popular vote shift toward Republicans.

Not surprisingly, just over half of the Pivot Counties are found in the Midwest. That includes 31 counties in Iowa, 22 in Wisconsin, 19 in Minnesota, 12 in Michigan, 12 in Illinois, nine in Ohio, and five in Indiana.

Nationally, President Obama won the popular vote by 6 percentage points in 2008 (52 to 46 percent) and by 4 percentage points in 2012 (51 to 47 percent). Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by only 2 percentage points in 2016 (48 to 46 percent).

In 2008, President Obama won the 206 Pivot Counties by 10 points, with a margin of 54 to 44 percent. In 2012, he won them by a slightly smaller margin of 53 to 46 percent. But the results in 2016 were dramatically different. Donald Trump carried them by 8 points, 51 to 43 percent. That reflects a net swing of 15 percentage points (from D+7 in 2012 to R+8 in 2016).

Because of their unique status and significant impact, these Pivot Counties are a good place to study the changing political landscape. I am thrilled to be working with Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics, to examine what these counties can teach us about the ever-shifting landscape of American politics. From now until Election 2018, we will regularly release new Pivot County data and analysis.

Additionally, every morning at 8:00 a.m. Eastern, Ballotpedia will publish Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day to explore the intersection of culture, politics, and technology.

A small number of these Pivot Counties (22) are true swing counties, voting for the winner in eight consecutive elections dating back to 1988. Two counties—Vigo, Indiana and Valencia, New Mexico—have gone with the winner in every election dating back to 1960!

But while some of the Pivot Counties consistently swing with the national mood, a larger number have a background that traditionally leans towards Democratic candidates. Most voted for the Democratic candidate during the Republican victories in 1988, 2000, and 2004. Only a few voted Republican during the Democratic victories in 1992 and 1996.

This suggests strongly that Donald Trump’s ability to capture the allegiance of certain formerly Democratic voters was essential to his victory. As the next few years unfold, it will be interesting to see if President Trump can retain the support of these counties. It will also be fascinating to explore whether that support is unique to the president or if it is part of a broader shift to the Republican Party.

In any such evaluation, of course, it’s essential to keep a proper perspective and remember that the political system is a lagging indicator of cultural trends. It’s the culture and technology that lead the nation forward.

To See Future of Auto Industry, Look Away From Washington

Posted on March 16, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

One fact consistently forgotten by political activists is that politicians don’t lead the nation, they lag behind. The culture and technology lead us forward.

A great example is the automobile industry. While regulations have a big impact in the short term, reality is ultimately driven by other factors. For example, when the price of gas falls, people buy bigger cars. That overwhelms the regulatory desire to put people in smaller cars that get better mileage.

Looking ahead, ride-sharing services and the imminent reality of self-driving cars will bring about an even larger transformation.

Today, the typical car is actually in use only about 5% of the time. It will soon be more efficient to share cars rather than keep them reserved for personal use. In other words, rather than having a car parked in the driveway, we might order a car to take us to work in the morning. The car would drive itself to pick us up and take us where we need to go. A different car might take us home. When we head out with the family for a road trip, we might order still another car, something a little roomier.

Not all of us will do this, of course, but most probably will. Sharing rather than buying saves money and hassle. It provides just the right vehicle for the right trip and all sorts of other benefits.

But, while change is good, transitions are hard.

If most of us are sharing cars, there won’t be a need for as many cars. One estimate suggests that car sales could fall nearly in half over the next generation. The ripple effects of the changing car culture will spread far beyond the direct decline in auto sales and loss of those manufacturing jobs. What happens to auto dealers when consumers start ordering rides rather than buying cars? Even the best news will create problems for someone. As auto safety improves, the auto insurance industry will decline. So will the need for tow trucks, auto parts stores, body shops, and other repair services.

It could also bring an end to the public transit industry. Once we are able to order a driverless car to pick us up at any time, why would we need busses and trains? It’s even possible to imagine self-driving cars cutting into the airline business. For shorter distances, working or napping while a car handles the ride may be easier than dealing with the growing inconvenience of air travel.

I know this sounds fanciful to some who can’t imagine Americans giving up their love of cars and driving. But we’ve seen it before. The same sort of transformational change took place more than a century ago when cars replaced horses as the primary means of transportation in America.

It’s impossible, of course, to know exactly how we’ll solve those transition challenges and what this will look like in a generation or so. Fortunately, in a free and self-governing nation, bureaucratic regulators do not determine the future. Instead, decisions are made by unleashing the creativity of countless individuals and organizations to meet the needs of society. The journey may be unpredictable and bumpy at times, but we can take comfort in the fact that the culture leads, not the politicians.

To see the future, look away from official Washington.

Three Steps to Fixing the Health Care Mess

Posted on March 9, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Most Americans believe that no matter how bad something is, Congress can always make it worse. With their new health care bill, Republican Congressional leaders seem intent on proving that point. Even those with a passionate hatred of Obamacare can find something to hate in the GOP replacement plan.

The plan fails because is based upon the mistaken belief that only official Washington can fix what ails our nation’s health care system. In truth, the solutions we need will come from outside the world of politics.

Amazing new technologies can provide better health, lower costs, and more personal control. Resistance to these benefits exists because they threaten powerful insurance and health care companies. If, for example, we can get an EKG on our smart phone, why would we pay a lab to do it for us? And, why would we pay an insurance company to cover the cost of that lab?

In a free and functioning health care system, the benefits of these new technologies would flow naturally as patients explored the best options for their own care. Sadly, though, we have a politically driven health care system that blocks progress to protect the status quo. Rather than working to lower the cost of care, the political process is more interested in keeping costs high but hidden.

In their world, it’s better to have an insurance company pay $100 for an EKG rather than have a patient do the test on their phone. That provides revenue for both the insurance company and for the health care corporation. The patient is inconvenienced, care is delayed, and the monetary cost is hidden in ever higher insurance premiums.

The first step, therefore, to fixing health care in America, is to recognize that politicians can’t fix it. They are the problem. We need to create a free and competitive system where people can make reasonable decisions about their own health care choices.

The second step is the single most important thing Congress can do. The current health care mandate forces most Americans to buy far more insurance than they need. It benefits insurance companies and blocks new technologies from gaining traction. That mandate should be replaced with a far more modest requirement that people maintain coverage for big-ticket items like surgery. That would dramatically reduce the cost of Obamacare to individuals and governments at every level. It would also open up competition in the health insurance industry.

Finally, there is a third step that could firmly transfer power over insurance companies from politicians to the American people. When offered health insurance, every employee should be able to reject some or all of the coverage. They could then keep whatever savings result in the form of a higher salary. If people are given this choice, insurance companies would have to prove that their services are worth the cost. And, the choices would constantly change over time as new technologies reduce the cost of testing and care.

Three simple steps. Recognizing that politicians can’t fix the health care system, reducing the mandate to improve choice, and giving every employee control over how much health insurance they want to buy. The biggest problem with our health care system is that its run by bureaucrats and those steps directly address that problem. It’s time to shift power to the people.

President Trump Finds Common Ground With Official Washington

Posted on March 2, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

President Donald Trump’s first address to a joint session of Congress was remarkable partly because it was so unremarkable. What I mean is that it was very much like speeches to Congress given by countless presidents before him.

There was the now-familiar build-up of chatter on cable television describing what to look for in the speech and what the White House hoped to accomplish. There was the grand entry and hand-shaking and introduction by the Sargent at Arms. When the president delivered his lines, members of his party stood up and applauded while the opposition party stayed in their seats. When the president introduced special guests, the heartfelt applause came from both sides of the aisle.

Everything else in the young Trump Administration had been heralded as so different from what came before, that the mere normalcy of the moment seemed to be a surprise.

Just as they had for President Barack Obama, the speech was reviewed as a theater performance. “The delivery was solid. It had true moments of emotion,” presidential historian Douglas Brinkley told Politico. “It was the moment he went from being a partisan figure to trying to be a uniting figure. For the first time, he seemed like a president. He seemed to have the aura. It was the high-water mark of his presidency.”

As I watched, I realized that a transformation was taking place. The reality TV star and presidential candidate Donald Trump had always found a way to connect with everyday Americans who are skeptical of the political class. Tuesday’s speech showed that, for the first time, President Trump had found a way to connect with the political class as well.

Sure, there were derogatory comments from elite politicians. “The speech and reality have never been more detached,” according to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York. But that’s what you expect from members of the opposing party. Republicans said similar things following speeches by President Obama. That’s just the way political games are played.

So how did the ultimate outsider and breaker of conventional political rules go about generating such a normal response to a major speech?

His speech accepted a central premise of official Washington. His tone and comments suggested that politicians and the government lead the nation. That was enough to earn the president credibility among the political class. Even Van Jones, one of the more left-leaning members of the Obama Administration was impressed. “If he finds a way to do that over and over again, he’s going to be there for eight years.”

The challenge for President Trump, though, is that the political elites are wrong. They do not lead the nation. In America, the culture leads and politicians lag behind. Everyday Americans using their freedom to work together in community are the only ones who can make America great.

It’s good that the president reached out to the political class and is looking for ways to work together. There are important tasks for the politicians to accomplish such as confirming Neil Gorsuch’s nomination for the Supreme Court.

To be successful over the long-term, however, the president will have to find ways to remind the politicians that they really aren’t in charge.

How Did America Get Stuck With a Regulatory State?

Posted on February 23, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump have proven the ability to disrupt millions of lives with the stroke of a pen. Last week, I wrote of how the EPA arbitrarily changed the rules simply because it didn’t like the results of Election 2016. The week before I noted that by placing its faith in unaccountable bureaucrats to pick winners and losers, the Regulatory State is a rejection of the core American values of freedom, equality and self-governance.

How did this hostile takeover of America’s government come about? There have always been people who preferred rule by elites, even in the earliest days of our nation’s history. For example, at the Constitutional Convention, Alexander Hamilton proposed that we elect a monarch for life and give him extensive powers.

A century later, a young scholar who later became president described voters as “selfish, ignorant, timid, stubborn, or foolish.” Woodrow Wilson dreamed of a nation led by “a corps of civil servants prepared by a special schooling and drilled, after appointment, into a perfected organization, with appropriate hierarchy and characteristic discipline.”

Elite support for centralized power grew steadily. Still, for most of our history, the public commitment to freedom and self-governance generally prevented things from getting too far out of hand.

That all changed on the morning of December 7, 1941. “Never before or since has America been so unified,” according to historian Craig Shirley. “There were virtually no Americans against their country getting into World War II after the unprovoked attack by the Japanese at Pearl Harbor.” In that unity, and in a desire to preserve the nation, Americans trusted their government as never before or since.

President Roosevelt used that trust, took command over every aspect of national life, and won the war. When it ended, the U.S. enjoyed an economic boom unrivaled in history. The response to Pearl Harbor gave the federal government a fair amount of credibility and a large dose of goodwill.

It was this historical aberration—a brief moment in history when Americans placed enormous trust in the federal government—that allowed the regulatory state to firmly take root in American society.

The moment didn’t last.

During the 1960s and early 1970s, the next generation of politicians squandered whatever good will and credibility the federal government had earned. But it wasn’t just the mistakes of politicians that created the distrust. It was simply a return to the natural order of things.

Unfortunately, before America’s natural and healthy skepticism about centralized power returned, the foundations of the Regulatory State were put firmly in place by the Nixon Administration. It was designed to reduce what Wilson considered the “meddlesome” influence of voters and it has done just that.

The good news, however, is that the culture leads and politicians lag behind. Today, that culture is leading away from centralized bureaucratic control. The 200 million smartphones and other digital tools place unprecedented power in the hands of the people. As Harvard’s Nicco Mele observed, “Radical connectivity is toxic to traditional power structures.”

Lacking any solid foundation in a culture committed to freedom and self-governance, the Regulatory State is now justified only by fading memories of an historical aberration. No matter how desperately those at the top cling to power, it cannot last. A one-size fits all central government cannot survive in the I-Pad era.

Abuse of the Regulatory Process Is a Threat to America’s Founding Ideals

Posted on February 16, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

America’s founding ideals are threatened by a regulatory regime that often operates outside the Constitutional system of checks and balances. Recently, for example, the EPA ignored proper procedures to issue an arbitrary ruling just before President Obama left office.

The ruling had its roots in the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74 which sent the price of gas skyrocketing. Suddenly, everyone was concerned about conserving energy and Congress passed a 1975 law requiring improved fuel efficiency over time. The law was implemented under the guidance of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Since then, the auto industry and NHTSA have periodically squabbled about just what the right requirements should be, but the results have been pretty dramatic. The average miles per gallon for all cars sold in America has nearly doubled.

Over the years, however, public interest in fuel efficiency has ebbed and flowed with the price of gasoline. Interest in fuel efficient cars naturally goes up when the price of gasoline rises significantly. The reverse is true with lower gas prices.

The ongoing consumer interest in larger and less fuel efficient cars has been a source of constant frustration for many environmentalists. In 2009, the Obama Administration addressed this frustration by giving the EPA a voice in the process of setting fuel economy standards. Not only that, they gave California regulators a privileged position in that process. California’s role is significant because of its strong commitment to the electric car industry.

To reduce the confusion, the auto industry worked with all three regulatory bodies and agreed to a standard set of rules designed to dramatically increase fuel efficiency and decrease emissions of greenhouse gases. Recognizing the complexity of the issue, a formal Midterm Evaluation process was established. This was to be a data-driven review to see if the original assumptions used to set those rules still made sense.

It was the Midterm Evaluation process that led to the regulatory abuse.

The EPA announced and published a timetable that produced a draft analysis last summer. A preliminary “determination” was scheduled for release in mid-2017 and a final ruling in 2018. It was a typical regulatory timetable reflecting the fact that over 1,000 pages of technical data would have to be reviewed by all stakeholders in the process. Since the new standards would last all the way until 2025, it was appropriate to provide everyone with time for review and comment.

However, immediately following the election of Donald Trump, the EPA abandoned this process. Suddenly and without notice the agency declared that there was no need to reconsider the underlying assumptions or change the standards. On its face, this is an absurd position. The declining price of gasoline and consumer reluctance to purchase electric cars are certainly dramatic changes relevant to the field of auto regulation.

It is wrong for a government agency to arbitrarily change the process just because it doesn’t like the result of an election. To re-establish the legitimacy of the process, and to uphold the rule of law, the Trump Administration should direct the EPA to adhere to the agreed upon timetable for review.

Do We Have a Legitimate Government?

Posted on February 9, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Prior to last year’s election, supporters of Hillary Clinton worried that Donald Trump and his supporters might not accept Hillary Clinton’s victory as legitimate. It never occurred to them that the shoe might soon be on the other foot. Shortly after it became apparent that there would be no Clinton victory party, many of her supporters instantly switched gears and began to question the legitimacy of Trump’s victory.

No matter how much it angers some people, though, Donald Trump is the duly elected President of the United States. Still, there is a much more fundamental question about the legitimacy of the government he leads. It’s has nothing to do with who won the election.

Over the past four decades, American government has been completely transformed by the growth of the Regulatory State. Most governing decisions are now made by distant bureaucrats with little input from Congress. Courts rarely provide any checks and balances giving executive branch officials free rein to interpret laws according to their own preferences and agendas.

“An ‘unaccountable’ government, insulated from the public and their elected representatives, threatens the very legitimacy of a democratic political system,” according to Yale University’s Jonathan G.S. Koppell. The Regulatory State “is not merely unconstitutional; it is anti-constitutional,” adds Boston University Law Professor Gary Lawson. “The Constitution was designed specifically to prevent the emergence of kinds of institutions.”

By placing its faith in unaccountable government officials to pick winners and losers, the Regulatory State is a rejection of the core American values of freedom, equality, and self-governance. This hostile takeover of America’s government did not happen by accident or misunderstanding. Its architects “did not misunderstand the Constitution,” explains Lawson. “They understood it perfectly well. They just didn’t like it.”

Lacking Constitutional authority, the Regulatory State might conceivably claim legitimacy by appealing to the higher values expressed in the Declaration of Independence. But that great document says clearly that governments can derive just authority only from the consent of the governed.

The Regulatory State fails on that front as well. During the entire four decades of its existence, there has NEVER been a time when a majority of Americans trusted the federal government (other than a brief blip immediately following 9/11). The longer that people have lived under the regulatory regime, the less they support it. Over the past decade, the number trusting the federal government to do the right thing most of the time has fallen to 25% or less.

The Regulatory State, therefore, can claim no legitimacy from either the Constitution or the Declaration. Regardless of who sits in the Oval Office and who controls Congress, it is an illegitimate form of government. It gives far too much power to the president, a fact that instills tremendous fear of oppression among those who support the losing candidate.

It’s time to re-establish a legitimate government in America and restore our national commitment to freedom, equality, and self-governance. That means forcing the bureaucracy to live within our Constitutional system of checks and balances. It’s the only way to ensure a bright future for our nation. It’s also the only way to ensure that, regardless of who wins an election, all Americans can enjoy the right to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness.

Beginning of the End for the Regulatory State?

Posted on February 3, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

The shorthand description of Neil Gorsuch is that he’s a younger version of the man he’s likely to replace on the Supreme Court—Justice Antonin Scalia. Therefore, his nomination is seen by many as merely restoring the balance that existed on the Court for most of the past decade—4 conservative justices, 4 liberal justices, and Justice Kennedy as a key swing vote.

The idea that Gorsuch is a young Scalia is as accurate as such shorthand comments can be, but SCOTUS blog reports that there is one significant exception. Last year, “Gorsuch criticized a doctrine of administrative law (called Chevron deference) that Scalia had long defended.” That won’t make headlines the way that other hot button issues do, but it’s a difference that could bring about a huge and positive change to the way the federal government works.

To understand why, a little background is required.

Over the past four decades, as American society has been decentralizing, American politics has been heading in the opposite direction. Political elites have centralized more and more power in a distant bureaucracy set up to rule without interference from voters. By placing faith in government and bureaucrats—rather than everyday Americans and community organizations–the regulatory state is fundamentally a threat to American democracy and self-governance.

The rise of the regulatory state “represents perhaps the single greatest change in our system of government since the founding,” according to George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley. “Our carefully constructed system of checks and balances is being negated by the rise of a fourth branch, an administrative state of sprawling departments and agencies that govern with increasing autonomy and decreasing transparency.”

Alarmingly, Turley notes, “Citizens today are ten times more likely to be the subject of an agency court ruling than a federal court ruling.”

In 2015, 224 laws were passed by Congress and 3,554 new regulations were implemented. In other words, Congress had nothing to do with ninety-four percent (94%) of all new federal laws. Regulators now have a bigger impact on the daily lives of most Americans than Congress, the president, or the nation’s courts.

The Supreme Court has consistently aided this sprint to impose top-down bureaucratic control. In 1984, the Honorables ruled that agency decisions should be given great deference by the courts. Later, the Court ruled that agencies should even receive deference in terms of deciding their own jurisdiction. That latter ruling prompted Chief Justice John Roberts to write a strong dissent highlighting significant concerns: “It would be a bit much to describe the result as ‘the very definition of tyranny,’ but the danger posed by the growing power of the administrative state cannot be dismissed.”

The addition of Neil Gorsuch to the Court will help Roberts address that very real danger. The likely next Supreme Court Justice sees this as a fundamental problem. He has written that permitting “executive bureaucracies to swallow huge amounts of core judicial and legislative power and concentrate federal power more than a little difficult to square with the Constitution.”

Gorsuch clearly believes that bureaucrats should be subject to Constitutional checks and balances. If he can help the Court provide such accountability, the next Justice will play a great role in restoring America’s commitment to democracy and self-governance.

Trump, Mexico, and Jobs

Posted on January 26, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

President Trump’s commitment to fight for American workers is a big reason he’s president. To deliver on that commitment, he should consider a lesson from the Gemini space program.

Back in the 1960s, NASA engineers were learning how spaceships could rendezvous and dock. It looks easy in the movies, but reality is much more complex. For example, if one of the spacecraft is far behind the other, how does it catch up? The obvious answer would be to step on the gas. But that answer would be wrong.

Why?

When a spaceship speeds up, the laws of gravity push it into a higher orbit. That’s a big problem because ships in a higher orbit move more slowly. So, crazy as it seems, the only way to catch up is to slow down. Hitting the brakes drops the ship into a lower orbit and a lower orbit means higher speed.

The laws of economics are not nearly so firm or as well understood as the laws of gravity. But the obvious answers often create more problems than they solve.

That’s certainly the case for calls to impose a tariff on any car made in Mexico. Raising the cost of cars made south of the border sounds like a simple way to keep jobs in the US. The reality, though, is even more confusing than orbital physics.

It’s true that the number of cars made in Mexico has tripled since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed. And, during that time, the number of US-made cars has held steady. The numbers haven’t decreased, but there’s been little growth. Some conclude, therefore, that the Mexican growth came at the expense of American workers.

However, when a car is built in Mexico, nearly half of the component parts are made in the USA. That applies to cars assembled in Mexico and sold in the US, but also to those sold to other countries. As a result, Detroit alone exports more than $10 billion worth of goods annually to Mexico. Since NAFTA was signed, US exports of auto parts to Mexico have tripled.

The last thing the millions of American workers dependent on the auto parts industry want is a trade war with Mexico. The same is true for millions of other Americans whose jobs depend on exports. Just as speeding up a spaceship causes it to slow down, punitive tariffs are an obvious answer that produce the opposite of what is instinctively expected. They’ve been tried before and failed. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff converted a bad recession into the Great Depression.

President Trump’s commitment to American workers earned him the votes and trust of working class Americans. To honor that commitment and trust, rhetoric and symbolic actions aren’t enough. He needs to deliver jobs. Imposing a punitive tariff might make his supporters feel good in the short-term, but the good feelings will fade quickly as jobs disappear and the economy sinks.

A more productive approach would build upon the president’s call for reducing the regulatory burden and reforming the tax code. These steps would create jobs by getting rid of political obstacles that encourage companies to invest elsewhere.

What America needs today is not a trade war, but an end to the federal government’s war on job-creation.

Martin Luther King, Jr: A Great American

Posted on January 19, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Abraham Lincoln is generally regarded today as one of America’s greatest presidents. But, that wasn’t always the case. It took more than half-a-century after his death before the memorial erected in his honor could be built. The bitterness of the Civil War he waged to preserve the Union lingered long after an assassin’s bullet ended Lincoln’s life.

It took time to bring the perspective needed for Lincoln’s greatness to shine. We are now experiencing the same process in the legacy of Martin Luther King, Jr.

The legacies of Lincoln and King were publicly intertwined when King delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech from the Lincoln Memorial. That speech ranks alongside Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address as among the best expressions of America’s highest ideals.

In 1963, however, both the speech and the speaker were as controversial as Lincoln had been in his time. Throughout the 1960s, King was routinely found to be one of the most unpopular men in public life, hounded by the FBI, and repeatedly arrested for demanding that America live up to its highest ideals The bitter response to the Civil Rights movement he led lingered long after an assassin’s bullet ended his life.

This past Monday, we officially celebrated King’s life and he is now viewed favorably by most Americans. But King still does not get the respect he deserves. As a Baptist preacher, King grieved over the fact that the most segregated hour in America was Sunday morning at church. It is painfully ironic that the holiday honoring King’s life has become one of the most segregated days in America.

Appreciation of King is limited partly because he is viewed primarily as a great black leader rather than as a great American leader. It’s also limited because many Americans know little about the great man beyond his soaring rhetoric.

King was a smart, tough, and courageous leader who tirelessly promoted non-violent protests to counter the violence inflicted upon black Americans. It was a brilliant strategy designed to appeal to the hearts and minds of white Americans by presenting a clear choice between right and wrong.

But it was tough to sell the idea to many black Americans who were sick and tired of being abused. Recognizing this, King did more than just give nice speeches and hope for the best. He constantly led mass meetings to remind everyone that non-violence was the only practical path forward. He and his team also prepared protesters for what they would face by clearly expressing the dangers and providing ongoing training exercises.

Ongoing daily leadership was needed. Following the Montgomery Bus Boycott, King recognized the potential for violence when black riders prepared to ride integrated busses for the first time. So, he wrote a 17-point memo advising the riders on appropriate behavior. One of those points remains both heartbreaking and powerful: “Be loving enough to absorb evil and understanding enough to turn an enemy into a friend.”

Leadership like that made Martin Luther King, Jr. one of America’s greatest leaders. Like Lincoln, he understood that challenging the nation to live up to its highest ideals put his own life at risk. But King sacrificed himself to make our nation a better place. He created a better world not just for black Americans, but for all Americans.

The Regulatory State vs. The American Dream

Posted on January 12, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

In the midst of the Great Depression, James Truslow Adams coined the phrase “The American Dream.” He described it as “a dream of a social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable.” Everyone should “be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position.”

Adams believed that this concept is the “greatest contribution we have made to the thought and welfare of the world.”

It’s a dream of a profoundly moral and just society. The land of opportunity is a place where all who are able accept the responsibility to provide for themselves and their family. And, because everyone can get ahead by working hard and making good decisions, it’s a land where poverty does not exist. Even those with temporarily low incomes have a viable path to a better life.

The dream has always been about more than money. One revealing survey found that just 27% of Americans admire those who are rich. However, 88% admire those who work hard and get rich. It’s not the money that matters. It’s the hard work that draws rave reviews.

The vision of a land where people can work hard and earn their success remains extraordinarily powerful in the 21st century. But many Americans fear it’s a vision that describes our nation’s past more than its future.

Some worry that today’s children simply won’t have the opportunities than their parents had. Others are concerned that the desire for an opportunity to succeed has been replaced by an entitlement mindset. And, most recognize that there are some parts of the country where credible opportunities don’t exist. No matter how hard the residents are willing to work, the jobs simply aren’t there.

The declining sense of opportunity in 21st century America is directly related to growth of the Regulatory State. That’s because opportunity thrives only in an environment of freedom, equality, and self-governance.

• The land of opportunity is a land where the people are in charge. Everyone is empowered to pursue their own success.
• The Regulatory State is a land where unelected and unaccountable panels of government experts are in charge. Everyone else must ask permission first.

The conflict between the Regulatory State and a land of opportunity is at the heart of twenty-first century concerns about America’s future. It’s a conflict about the American Creed, the deeply held belief that we are free to do whatever we want with our own lives so long as we don’t interfere with the rights of others to do the same. Throughout our nation’s history, Americans have used that freedom to work together in community and create a better world.

The danger we face today is that as the bureaucracy increases, opportunity decreases.

The reverse is also true. By decreasing the power of the bureaucracy, we will unleash the American Dream. That is the greatest legacy we can pass on to future generations.

Trump’s Transition from Rhetoric to Policy

Posted on January 5, 2017 | by Scott Rasmussen | Leave a Comment

Eight years ago, as Barack Obama prepared to move into the White House, he continued to offer the rhetoric of hope and change. Though many Republicans mocked it, that message was exactly what the American people wanted to hear.

Candidate Obama promised to change the way Washington worked and talked of bi-partisan cooperation. But, within weeks of taking office, President Obama rammed a so-called “economic stimulus” package through Congress that was so partisan it failed to win a single vote from House Republicans. He took the same polarizing approach to pass Obamacare.

The disconnect between the promises of candidate Obama and the policies of President Obama decimated the Democratic Party. Republicans have more state and federal political power today than at any point since the 1920s.

Now, it’s President-elect Donald Trump who must transition from rhetoric to policy. His challenge is different than Obama’s. It’s not about making Washington work better. It’s a promise to make the economy work better for middle class and working class Americans.

Like Obama, Trump has spent the transition showing that he remembers what got him elected. Acting as dealmaker in chief, he offered incentives to the Carrier air-conditioning company to keep a few hundred jobs in Indiana. He has claimed similar success with Sprint and Ford to bring jobs back to America and keep them here.

Symbolically, this is the right message. Working class Americans have long believed—with justification– that Washington politicians don’t care about them. It’s true of politicians from both parties. These are the sort of voters who put Trump over the top in heartland states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These voters are thrilled to have an incoming president who is so visibly committed to fighting for them.

Now comes the hard part.

In a nation with 152 million workers and 7 million unemployed, the few thousand jobs Trump claims responsibility for are a drop in the bucket. They’re a powerful symbol, but nothing more. The new president cannot create the needed opportunities by playing dealmaker in chief and adding jobs a few thousand at a time.

Over the next few months, we will see if President-elect Trump can do a better job than President Obama in delivering policies that will match his rhetoric. If he does, and if the economy improves, Republicans will benefit. If not, the GOP under Trump could suffer the same fate as Democrats under Obama.

For any president, it ultimately comes down to a question of priorities. President Obama may have promised hope and change, but he decided implementing Democratic policies and an unpopular health care law were more important.

For President Trump, the tension will be between his deal-making instincts and his commitment to reducing the burden of excessive regulatory power. Reducing the power of distant and unaccountable bureaucrats will produce lasting economic benefits. When businesses can worry more about pleasing their customers rather than sucking up to politicians, America wins.

But, reducing the regulatory burden also limits the tools that a president can use to bully companies into submission. Sooner or later, the new president will have to decide whether he is more interested in playing dealmaker-in-chief or creating a healthy economy.

If he chooses wisely, the new president might actually deliver the hope and change promised eight years ago.