77% Say Poverty Stats Should Consider Local Cost-of-Living

Given that it costs more to live in some places like New York City than in other parts of the country, 77% of voters believe that the official poverty line be adjusted for the cost of living in each particular community. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that just 10% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Unfortunately, the government poverty statistics do not make such distinctions.

In my latest book, The Sun Is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will NotI note that this is not just a theoretical or abstract concern. Using official statistics, “a family of four in rural Mississippi earning $24,000 a year would be defined as living in poverty. But a family of four living in New York City that earns $25,000 a year would  not. In reality, of course, $24,000 in Mississippi goes a lot farther than $25,000 in Manhattan…. Despite what the official figures show, the urban New York family is far more likely to be in poverty than the rural Mississippi family.”

This distortion created by the official data has significant real world impacts. “The government figures consistently overestimate the reality of poverty in rural southern states and underestimate poverty in urban areas throughout the rest of the nation.” This and other flaws in the data “have hidden the reality of poverty in America.”

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier showed that 84% of voters consider poverty in America to be a serious problem. However, there is much skepticism about the effectiveness of government programs to address the issue.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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Health Care, Immigration, and Investigating the President Top Public’s Agenda For Congress

When the new Congress takes power, 32% of voters believe addressing health care should be the top priority. However, a ScottRasmussen.com poll found that within the desire for health care reform there are a pair of potentially conflicting desires. Seventeen percent (17%) of all voters believe the primary focus should be ensuring everyone has access to care while 15% believe reducing the cost of care should be number one.

After health care, stopping illegal immigration is seen by 20% as the top priority. That’s the top concern for 40% of Republican voters  (see question wording and crosstab results).

Number three on the list among all voters is Investigating President Trump. That’s the top priority for 15%. Among Democrats, 28% see this as the top priority (40% of Democrats name health care as most important).

Additional items on the list include cutting taxes, seen as top priority for 9%; cutting federal spending (8%); increasing the minimum wage (8%), and raising taxes on big companies (4%). Three percent (3%) said some other item should be the top priority.

Sixty percent (60%) believe the lame duck session of the current Congress should refrain from passing major legislation.

Data released earlier showed that 63% are now confident the votes will be properly counted. That’s down from 76% before the election.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 11-12, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

 

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64% Believe Elections Fair to Voters

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters nationwide believe that elections are fair to voters. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that figure includes just 21% who describe the election process as Very Fair. Twenty-six percent (26%) say the process is Somewhat Unfair and 10% consider it Very Unfair.

There are significant gender, racial, and partisan divides on this question (see question wording and crosstab results).

  • Seventy percent (70%) of men believe elections are fair to voters along with 57% of women.
  • Seventy percent (70%) of white voters believe they are fair. Just 56% of Hispanic voters and 45% of black voters share that view.
  • Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans say the process is fair. Only 57% of Democrats and 61% of Independents agree.

Data released earlier showed that 63% are now confident the votes will be properly counted. That’s down from 76% before the election.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 11-12, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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5% Already Finished With Holiday Shopping

Thanksgiving hasn’t even arrived, yet 5% of American adults have already finished their holiday shopping for the season. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that another 10% are more than halfway through their list.

At the other extreme, 61% haven’t even gotten started. That group includes 20% who haven’t bought anything but have started looking.

Fourteen percent (14%) have bought a few things but haven’t reached the halfway point.

Eleven percent (11%) don’t do any holiday shopping.

Fifteen percent (15%) of all shoppers say they’ll spend more on the holidays this year. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they’ll spend less and 56% expect to spend about the same amount. In the past, these figures have tended to shift over time.

The national survey of 1,124 Adults was conducted November 12-13, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.o percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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63% Confident That Votes Will Be Properly Counted, Down from 76% Before Election

Following last week’s election, 63% of voters nationwide are confident that votes will be counted correctly and the legitimate winner declared in just about every race. That’s down from 76% before the election.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that the number who are Very Confident in a proper counting fell from 35% before the election to 21% now.

The biggest decline in confidence–17 percentage points–was found among Republicans. Confidence among Independents fell 13 points and confidence among Democrats fell seven points.

However, Republicans are still the most confident with 70% believing the votes will be counted fairly and correct winner declared. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Democrats share that confidence along with 58% of Independents (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 11-12, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Group Favorables November 11-12, 2018

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Small Biz Owners, Environmentalists, Church Goers Earn Top Ratings from Public

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Small Business Owners while just 8% offer an unfavorable assessment. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey asked voters about a dozen general groups and found that none came close to the positive reviews of Small Business Owners.

Environmentalists and church goers were next on the list. Environmentalists are viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 21% of a net positive rating of 41 points. Church goers earned positive reviews from 61% and negative reactions from 18% for a net positive rating of 42.

Six other groups tested earned net positive ratings. That list includes College Professors (+38),  Civil Rights Advocates (+34), Gun Control Advocates (+19), Political Conservatives (+11), Gun Rights Advocates (+6), and Feminists (+5)

Three groups received net negative assessments: Political Liberals (-2), Political Activists (-4), and Atheists (-14).

Among Democrats, the most positively viewed groups are Small Business Owners, College Professors, and Environmentalists.

For Republicans, the warmest feelings are for Small Business Owners, Churchgoers, and Political Conservatives.

Among Independents, Small Business Owners top the list and nobody else comes close. A distant second and third are Churchgoers and Environmentalists.

See the full list of topline results and crosstabs.

ScottRasmussen.com will offer different perspectives on the data in the days to come.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 25-26, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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47% Believe Socialism Does Not Lead to Higher Taxes, More Government Control

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Americans believe that Socialism will lead to higher taxes and more government control. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 47% disagree. In fact, 20% believe it will lead to lower taxes and less government while 27% believe it would leave things about where they are today.

This is the latest data in an ongoing survey series examining what Socialism means today (sign up to receive email updates).

Forty percent (40%) of US voters have a favorable opinion of that ideology, but what they support is far different from what it has meant  historically. In fact, among those with a favorable view of Socialism, just 34% believe it will lead to higher taxes and more government control. Another third (33%) think it would reduce taxes and government control.

Perhaps most stunning is that voters with a favorable opinion of Socialism believe it is more likely to lead to lower taxes than Capitalism (33% of them think Socialism leads to lower taxes, 27% say the same about Capitalism). However, like most voters, those who like Socialism believe a Free Market system is more likely to cut taxes and reduce government control more than any other economic system.

Data released earlier showed that just 19% of voters today believe Capitalism and Free Markets are the same. Other recent data showed that, among those with a favorable opinion of Socialism, 54% want less government control of the economy.

Among all voters, 31% believe Capitalism would lead to lower taxes and less government control. Twenty-eight percent (28%) believe it would increase both taxes and government control. A plurality, 41%, believe it would leave things about where they are today. This and other data suggests that many voters continue to equate capitalism with crony capitalism.

As for a Free Market System, 43% of all voters believe it would lead to lower taxes and less government control. Forty percent (40%) think it would mean little change. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Free Markets, the most positive assessment of any political and economic system. Free markets are also seen as more fair than Capitalism, Socialism, or Communism.

Support for Free Markets is consistent with data released earlier showing that 65% believe just about all positive change in America begins outside of the political system.

It’s also consistent with the broader American support for the ideal of freedom.  Our nation’s founding document, the Declaration of Independence, states that the very purpose of government is to protect our unalienable rights including life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Those attitudes remain deeply embedded in the nation’s cultural DNA.

Ninety-three percent (93%) of voters agree with a sentiment sometimes defined as the American Creed: Every American should have the right to live their own life as they see fit, so long as they respect the rights of others to do the same. But, they know it needs work.  Only 49% believe that most Americans respect the right of other people to live their own life as they see fit. Even more skepticism is found about the federal government. Just 32% believe that it respects the right of every American to live their own life as they see fit.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 25-26, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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84% See Poverty As Serious Problem, 34% Believe Government Programs Help

Eighty-four percent (84%) of voters nationwide see poverty as a serious problem in the United States today. That figure includes 37% who see it as a Very Serious problem.

However, a ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that just 34% believe government programs intended to reduce poverty to more good than harm. A similar number–38%–believe the government efforts do more harm than good while 28% are not sure.

Urban voters are much more upbeat about the impact of anti-poverty programs. Among those who live in cities, 48% believe such programs do more good than harm. Just 32% hold the opposite view.

However, in suburban and rural America, the general perceptions are reversed. By a 40% to 26% margin, suburban voters believe government efforts to reduce poverty do more harm than good. Rural voters, by a 42% to 30% margin, agree (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Women are more skeptical than men about the impact of government programs intended to reduce poverty. By a 37% to 27% margin, female voter the programs do more harm than good. Men are evenly divided.

Hispanic voters, by a 52% to 28% margin, believe the programs do more harm than good. Black voters, by a 38% to 29% margin, hold the opposite view. Among white voters, 38% think the impact in more negative than positive while 34% see more positive results on balance.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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19% Believe Capitalism and Free Markets Are the Same

Just 19% of voters nationwide believe that a Free Market System is the same as Capitalism. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 39% believe they are different while 42% are not sure.

Eighteen percent (18%) believe Socialism and Communism are the same while 60% say they are not.

Sixty-one percent (61%) believe our political and economic system today is best described as Capitalism. Twenty-one percent (21%) believe we have a Free Market system and 13% say Socialism is the best description.

This suggests an underlying public desire to move in the direction of free markets. Data release earlier shows that 79% have a favorable opinion of Free Market economic systems. Sixty-two percent (62%) say the same about Capitalism while 40% offer a positive assessment of Socialism.

Free markets are also seen as more fair than any other political and economic system. That’s one reason 70% believe the nation would be better off with less government involvement in the economy.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 25-26, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The support for free markets is also consistent with a broad support for freedom. Ninety-three percent (93%) of voters agree with a sentiment sometimes defined as the American Creed: Every American should have the right to live their own life as they see fit, so long as they respect the rights of others to do the same. Unfortunately, just 32% believe that it respects the right of every American to live their own life as they see fit.

It’s worth noting that 64% even believe freedom is more important than democracy.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) also agree that, in America, culture and technology lead the nation forward, while politics and government lag behind. On that point, 18% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Other data showed that 71% believe that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on the world we live in than the last eight presidents combined.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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78% Believe It’s Appropriate for Census to Ask About Citizenship

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of voters nationwide believe it’s appropriate for  the U.S. Census Bureau to ask residents if they are citizens of the United States. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 14% disagree and 8% are not sure.

That view is held by a solid majority of every measured demographic group. Ninety-two percent (92%) of Republicans believe the question is appropriate. So do 79% of Independent voters and 67% of Democrats.

Several states and cities are suing the federal government to prevent a question about citizenship from being asked. The plaintiffs claim that the question is meant to discourage immigrant participation.

Census data is used to determine the number of Congressional Districts allocated to each state. The more people a state has, the more districts it is allocated. For determining Congressional representation, 24% of voters believe that only citizens should be included in the population count. Another 40% believe that both citizens and legal residents should be counted. Finally, just 28% believe that illegal immigrants should be counted when it comes to determining Congressional representation.

Additionally, some federal grants are allocated using formulas based upon population and other factors. For the purposes of determining federal grant funding, public perceptions are similar. Sixty-four percent (64%) believe that either just citizens or legal residents should be counted. Twenty-eight percent (28%) believe that illegal immigrants should be included in the total.

These results are consistent with data showing that 81% of voters believe legal immigration is good while 81% believe illegal immigration is bad.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 8-9, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

There is no gender gap on these questions. There are however divides along partisan, racial, and geographic lines.

Just 23% of white voters believe illegal immigrants should be included in the totals used to determine Congressional representation. That view is held by 38% of black voters and 42% of Hispanic voters.

Forty percent (40%) of urban voters believe illegal immigrants should be included in the totals. Only 22% of suburban voters and 24% of rural voters agree.

On a partisan basis, 40% of Democrats believe illegal immigrants should be counted for purposes of determining the number of Congressional seats allocated to each state. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Independent voters and 14% of Republicans agree (see question wording and crosstab results).

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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22% Favor Government Ownership of Largest Companies

Twenty-two percent (22%) of voters believe that it would be better for America to have the federal government owned most or all of the nation’s largest companies. That total includes 8% who believe it would be much better.

However, a ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 78% believe such government ownership would be worse for the nation. That includes 51% who believe it would be much worse.

There is somewhat more support for government ownership among younger voters. Thirty-three percent (33%) of Millenials think it would be good for the country. Just 9% of senior citizens agree  (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 25-26, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

One of the more interesting political questions of our time is the shifting definition of Socialism. Forty percent (40%) of voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of that ideology, but what they support is far different from the historical definition of it. Among those with a positive view of Socialism in America today, just 35% favor government ownership of large companies.

The differing understanding of Socialism was also highlighted in data showing that 70% of voters nationwide believe that it would be better for our nation to have less government control of the economy. Among those with a favorable opinion of socialism, 54% want less government involvement in the economy.

These results are consistent with earlier data showing that most of those with a favorable attitude towards Socialism do not view the ideology as it has been understood historically. Related data shows that 65% believe just about all positive change in America begins outside of the political system.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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30% Believe Immigrants Should Be Eligible For Citizenship In Less Than 2 Years

Thirty percent (30%) of voters nationwide believe immigrants should be eligible for citizenship within two years of moving to America. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 48% believe the waiting period should be from two to ten years. Eight percent (8%) believe it should be even longer while 15% are not sure.

Under current law, a person must generally be a permanent resident of the country for five years before applying for citizenship. There are exceptions. For example, a person married to a U.S. resident can apply for citizenship after 3 years of permanent residence.

Partisan and demographic differences on this question are generally modest  (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 8-9, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Americans Overwhelmingly Believe Pre-judging Anyone by the Color of Their Skin is Racist 

Americans overwhelmingly believe that pre-judging someone by the color of their skin is racist.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of voters nationwide believe it is racist when a white American pre-judges a person of color based on the color of their skin. Additionally, 87% believe it is racist when a person of color pre-judges a white person based on the color of their skin.

Questions about the definition of racism flared up earlier this year when the New York Times hired Sarah Jeong and she was accused of making racist statements on social media against white Americans. Andrew Sullivan wrote a widely discussed column on the topic noting that some on the political left today do not believe racism against whites is even possible.

Sullivan wrote that, in this view, ” racism has nothing to do with a person’s willingness to pre-judge people by the color of their skin, or to make broad, ugly generalizations about whole groups of people, based on hoary stereotypes. Rather, racism is entirely institutional and systemic, a function of power, and therefore it can only be expressed by the powerful — i.e., primarily white, straight men.”

However, the survey found that even 94% of liberals believe it is racist when a person of color pre-judges a white person based on the color of their skin.

Some commentators on the political left believed that the entire controversy about Jeong’s social media posts was an inappropriate bullying attack by the alt-right.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted August 28-29, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The survey also found that 79% believe it’s racist for a white American to make broad generalizations about groups of people based on the color of their skin. Seventy-seven percent (77%) say it’s also racist when a person of color makes such generalizations.

The data was collected using a split sample technique. Half the respondents were asked about statements made by white persons and the other half were asked about statements made by persons of color (see question wording and crosstab results).

Data released earlier showed that:

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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63% Oppose Letting Non-Citizens Vote in Local Elections

Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters nationwide do not believe non-citizens should be allowed to vote in local elections. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 25% believe they should be allowed to vote and 12% are not sure.

There is a stunning generation gap on this question. Among those under 50, 42% believe non-citizens should be allowed to vote in local elections. Just 43% disagree. Among older voters, only 8% believe non-citizens should vote while 82% disagree (see question wording and crosstab results).

Some cities and towns do allow non-citizens to vote in local elections. However, it is against the law for them to vote in elections for federal office.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 8-9, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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70% Believe Less Government Involvement in Economy Is Good for Nation

Seventy percent (70%) of voters nationwide believe that it would be better for our nation to have less government control of the economy. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 30% disagree and think it would be better to have more government involvement in the economy.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of women want less government involvement along with 66% of men (see question wording and crosstab results).

Perhaps the most fascinating detail in the survey comes from looking at those who hold a favorable opinion of socialism.  A majority of this group (54%) wants less government involvement in the economy.

This provides an interesting insight into popular understanding of Socialism. Only 34% of of those who have positive feelings about Socialism believe it means higher taxes and more government control of the economy. Thirty-three percent (33%) believe it leads to lower taxes and less government control.

These results are consistent with earlier data showing that most of those with a favorable attitude towards Socialism do not view the ideology as it has been understood historically. Related data shows that 65% believe just about all positive change in America begins outside of the political system.

ScottRasmussen.com releases new polling data and insights daily. Sign up to receive our free Morning Update with the latest insights each day. 

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 25-26, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) also agree that, in America, culture and technology lead the nation forward, while politics and government lag behind. On that point, 18% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Other data showed that 71% believe that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on the world we live in than the last eight presidents combined.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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65% Believe Positive Change In America Begins Outside of Politics

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters agree that just about all positive change in America begins outside of the political system, and far from the halls of power in Washington D.C. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that just 22% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) also agree that, in America, culture and technology lead the nation forward, while politics and government lag behind. On that point, 18% disagree and 13% are not sure.

Both of those themes are emphasized in my latest book, The Sun Is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not. The book explains why I am so optimistic about our nation’s future despite being very pessimistic about our broken political system.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 30-31, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

There is no gender gap on these attitudes. The views are shared across generational, racial, partisan and ideological lines (see question wording and crosstab results).

Data released earlier showed that 71% believe that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on the world we live in than the last eight presidents combined.

Eight men have served as president since Jobs and Gates founded Apple and Microsoft. That list includes Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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50% Believe Democrats Too Liberal, 48% Say Republicans Too Conservative

Fifty percent (50%) of voters nationwide believe Democrats are too liberal. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 13% believe the party is too conservative and 38% believe it’s about right.

As for the Republicans, 48% say they’re too conservative; 17% too liberal; and, 36% about right.

Within both parties, nearly two-thirds are happy with their parties positioning. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats believe their party is about right. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Republicans say the same about their party.

Independents are less pleased. Fifty-three percent (53%) believe Democrats  are too liberal and just 35% say their ideology is about right. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Independent voters believe Republicans are too conservative and 33% say about right (see question wording and crosstab results).

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier showed that Tuesday’s election made 35% of voters more optimistic and 28% more pessimistic.

Other data showed that 36% believe divided government is bad for America. But, 29% see it as good and 35% say it’s neither good nor bad.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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29% Say Divided Government Good, 36% Bad

Tuesday’s election gave Democrats control of the House while leaving the Senate in Republican hands. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 36% of voters believe such divided government is bad for the nation.

Most voters, however, aren’t troubled by it at all. Twenty-nine percent (29%) believe that divided government is good for the nation. Another 35% consider it neither good nor bad.

In this environment, 38% believe it’s at least somewhat likely that  the president and Congress will work together and pass bipartisan legislation to address serious national issues. However only 8% consider it Very Likely (see question wording and crosstab results).

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of women see divided government as bad while just 23% believe it is good. Men are evenly divided on the question. Younger voters are more likely than their elders to see it as a problem.

Republican voters are more likely than other voters to see divided government as bad. That may result from the fact that until Tuesday, Republicans controlled both the House and Senate (see question wording and crosstabs).

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Election Made 35% More Optimistic, 28% More Pessimistic

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that Tuesday’s election results made 35% of voters more optimistic about the nation’s future. The results also made 28% more pessimistic while 37% said it didn’t impact them one way or the other.

Men, by a 40% to 28% margin, were more optimistic. Women were more evenly divided: 31% more optimistic and 28% more pessimistic.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Democrats were more upbeat while 28% more discouraged. Among Republicans, 32% were more positive and 26% more negative. Independent voters were split right down the middle: 29% more optimistic, 29% more pessimistic, and 42% who say their mood hasn’t changed (see question wording and crosstab results).

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Weekly Pulse: 55 Percent Say Economy is Strong

A solid majority of Americans headed to the polls Tuesday believing that the economy was excellent or good, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today.

“The economy was one of the top three issues for voters leading up to the election, and most Americans believe the economy is very strong,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen.”

According to the survey, conducted on November 5th and 6th, 40 percent of Americans believe the economy is getting better. Thirty-three percent say it’s about the same, while only 20 percent believe things are getting worse.

The survey finds that 49 percent of Americans believe their own personal finances are excellent or good, and 50 percent think they are getting better.

“Americans feel very good about their own circumstances in this economy,” said Elaine Parker, President of the Job Creators Network. “They know the economy is strong, and they anticipate more prosperity for themselves and their families as a result.”

Americans also see local businesses as thriving, according to the data. Forty-nine percent believe businesses in their area are likely to hire new workers. That’s three times more than the number of Americans who think businesses are likely to lay off workers.

“Americans who may not be following the Department of Labor data or other economic reports nevertheless have a strong sense that local businesses are doing well,” said Parker.

For more information about the Job Creators Network, please visit www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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USA Evenly Divided on Trump Handling of Immigration

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters nationwide approve of the way President Trump has handled the issue of immigration while 51% disapprove. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that those figures include 28% who Strongly Approve and 36% who Strongly Disapprove.

Eight-out-of-ten voters believe legal immigration is good for the nation while a similar number believe illegal immigration is bad. It seems likely that the president wins support from voters for his efforts to stop or reduce illegal immigration. That is evidenced by the fact that 65% of voters support sending military troops to our southern border.

However, the president’s harsh tone and the perception that he opposes all immigration diminishes his support.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans approve of the way the president has handled the immigration issue. So do 51% of Independent voters along with 17% of Democrats (see crosstab results).

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 6-7, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Other data from the survey found that a solid plurality of voters believe Congress is more conservative than the nation it is supposed to serve. Nancy Pelosi is viewed favorably by 32% of voters, unfavorably by 49%.

President Trump’s handling of the economy gets rave reviews (65% favorable) while just 44% like what he’s doing on health care.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Pelosi Viewed Favorably by 32%, Unfavorably by 49%

Representative Nancy Pelosi, the frontrunner to become the new Speaker of the House, is viewed favorably by 32% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 49%. Those figures are little changed from a month ago.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that Pelosi is viewed favorably by 58% of Democrats but only 10% of Republicans. Among Independent voters, 24% offer a favorable assessment and 54% take the opposite view (see crosstab results).

Recognizing her unpopularity in some parts of the country, many Democratic candidates campaigned on a promise to vote for someone other than Pelosi as Speaker. At the moment, no other candidate for the role has stepped forward.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 6-7, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The survey also found that public opinion of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has fallen over the past month. McConnell had long been viewed skeptically by Republican voters. But, following his role in guiding the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, McConnell’s ratings soared among Republicans. That brought his overall ratings to 37% favorable and 37% unfavorable last month.

Now, McConnell is viewed favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 43% of all voters. He still earns very positive reviews from Republicans (52% favorable) and negative assessments from Democrats. The big change is found among Independent voters. Last month, they were evenly divided about the Majority Leader. Now, among Independents, the numbers are 23% favorable and 50% unfavorable (see topline trends).

Equally dramatic is the decline in his negatives. In August, 47% had an unfavorable opinion of McConnell. It’s fallen to 37% today. It’s the first time in ScottRasmussen.com polling that any Congressional leader has had favorable ratings equal to his unfavorables (see question wording and crosstab results).

Currently, McConnell’s Democratic counterpart–Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer–is viewed favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 39%. Outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 43%. Figures for both men remained steady over the past month.

This national survey of 999 Registered Voters was conducted on October 4-5, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Vice President Mike Pence is viewed favorably by 45% of voters and unfavorably by 40%.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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44% Believe Congress More Conservative Than Nation

A ScottRasmussen.com poll conducted on election night and the morning after found that 44% of Registered Voters believe Congress is more conservative than the nation it is to represent. The national survey found that 36% believe it is more liberal than than the nation and 20% believe the legislature pretty accurately reflects the nation.

Those figures are little changed from a month ago. However, back in August, 38% said it was more conservative and 34% more liberal. In other words, the perception that Congress was too conservative grew during the fall campaign season.

ScottRasmussen.com will continue to track these perceptions on a monthly basis. It will be interesting to see if and how these numbers shift as the Democrats assume control of Congress.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 6-7, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The perception that Congress was too conservative was broadly similar among people of all ages and there was no gender gap on the question. There was, however, a partisan divide. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters believe Congress is more liberal than the nation while 62% of Democrats believe it is more conservative. Independent voters were more evenly divided–38% said too liberal and 42% more conservative (see question wording and crosstab results).

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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THE ELECTION’S OVER, NOW WHAT?

It was almost unsettling to wake up the morning after the election and realize it turned out pretty much as we expected. There were, of course, some individual surprises, but nothing on the seismic shock scale of 2016.

For months, it had been expected that Democrats would win a modest House majority, and they did. The popular vote margin for the Democrats was just about right where the ScottRasmussen.com Generic Ballot poll projected it to be (and also about the same as the RealClearPolitics average of all polls).

In the Senate, it had long been recognized that the Republicans were likely to gain a few seats, and they did. In the campaign’s final days, there were five or six very close races where either candidate could win. But, while Democrats might win any of those individual races, the GOP was favored to win most of them. That’s just what happened.

So now that we got the election we expected, where do we go from here?

The conventional wisdom suggests gridlock is coming. In that view, there’s no way a Nancy Pelosi-led House will forge significant bipartisan deals with a Mitch McConnell-led Senate and President Trump.

The likelihood of gridlock is very high, but I’m not sure how much it matters. Over the past two years, the Republican-led House also struggled to reach agreement with the Senate and the president. Other than the tax cut and repeal of the Obamacare mandate, there was little accomplished in the legislative arena.

But the lack of legislation does not mean a lack of impact. The Trump Administration did take some modest steps to reduce the regulatory burden. That accomplishment seems especially significant because it followed decades of enormous regulatory growth.

The deregulatory effort is almost certain to continue. Among other things, there will be an ongoing effort to give Americans a greater degree of control over the health insurance they purchase. Lower cost insurance that doesn’t cover every imaginable procedure may be frowned upon by bureaucrats in Washington, but they are welcomed by millions who have to buy their own insurance.

Additionally, with an increased Senate majority, the president will find it easier to confirm judges who are skeptical of an all-powerful federal government. That’s especially true because the Republican Senate victories in 2018 make them early favorites to retain control of the Senate in 2020. If there is another Supreme Court nomination in the coming years, the confirmation will be a lot smoother with a bigger Republican majority.

For their part, the Democrats are likely to launch many investigations of the president. But they will feel an ongoing tension between a progressive base demanding impeachment and more moderate Democrats fearful of offending centrist voters. That tension will carry over to issues like health care where progressives dream of banning private insurance companies and forcing all Americans into a government run health care system. The moderates recognize that such a plan is not popular with the rest of the country.

So, over the next two years, we’re likely to experience gridlock. But that doesn’t mean a lack of action. Instead, we’ll see deregulation and judicial appointments from Republicans. And, Democrats will try to resolve their party’s inner tension before the 2020 presidential election.

Posted in Scott's Columns

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The Morning After

First impressions are that the 2018 midterm elections were generally in line with what pollsters and analysts expected. Democrats won the House, but it wasn’t an enormous wave like the Tea Party victories in 2010. Republicans padded the Senate majority.

We didn’t poll individual House races, but the ScottRasmussen.com Generic Ballot consistently showed results consistent with the modest Democratic majority produced on Election Day. We also worked with HarrisX to survey six key Senate races for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation. They provided a reliable guide to Election Day by looking at each race over three time frames and on three turnout models. Check out the results for yourself.

One interesting note worth keeping in mind as 2020 approaches. Three of the states we surveyed were very pro-Trump states (Indiana, Missouri, Montana). In all three, there was a fairly large number of undecided voters and in all cases the undecideds tended to break towards the GOP candidate. That’s political gravity at work.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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It’s Finally Here

For millions of political junkies, today’s the big day. For millions of other Americans it’s a day to celebrate the end of civic pollution known as campaign ads.  And, as we noted earlier, for 37% of voters, it’s the most important election of their lifetime.

Despite all the noise and hype, the conventional wisdom heading into election day is pretty much the same as it’s been all year. Republicans are more likely to gain seats than lose in the Senate. Democrats are likely to win the House, though the size of their likely majority is in doubt.

In the midst of all this, many have failed to recognize how even a very modest change in turnout could have an outsized impact on the results. At this point, as I wrote in my final pre-election syndicated column, it’s all about turnout.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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Supreme Court Approval Steady at 63%

A new ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 63% of voters approve of the way that the Supreme Court is doing its job. That’s essentially unchanged from surveys conducted before Brett Kavanaugh was confirmed as the nation’s newest Supreme Court Justice.

In late September, 61% voiced approval of the Court. Earlier that month, approval was at 63% and it was 60% in August. The latest numbers show Republicans a bit more upbeat than in earlier surveys while Democrats are slightly more disapproving. However, the shifts are quite modest.

While overall approval remains steady, there has been a perceived shift in the ideology of the Court. Forty-three percent (43%) now believe the Court is too conservative, up from 32% a month ago. Twenty percent (20%) now believe it’s too liberal, down from 29%.

Thirty-five percent (35%) believe the Supreme Court has too much power. Most (57%) believe it has the right amount of power.

By way of comparison, 48% say the presidency has too much power. Forty-five percent (45%) say the same about Congress, and 56% believe that’s true of appointed officials in government agencies. All of those numbers are consistent with earlier findings.

Seventy percent (70%) believe the American people have too little power (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,005 Registered Voters was conducted November 4-5, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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40% Expect Dems to Win House, 35% Think GOP Will Hang On

Forty (40%) of Registered Voters nationwide expect the Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives when all the votes are counted.  A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 35% disagree and think the Republicans will hang on for victory.

Last week, 38% picked the Democrats to win and 36% said the opposite. Two weeks ago, Republicans were favored by a 40% to 37% margin. We have asked this question eight times this year and last week was the first time a plurality picked the Democrats to win (see question wording and crosstab results).

By a 45% to 31% margin, voters expect Republicans to keep control of the Senate.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted NOvember 4-5, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

In the past, voter expectations have often been a good indicator of election outcomes. At the moment, voter expectations are consistent with what most analysts expect.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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54% Want Election to Change Country’s Direction, 34% to Stay the Course

Fifty-four percent (54%) of the most likely voters are looking to change the current direction of the country with their vote. A ScottRasmussen.com national poll found that 34% are looking to support the current direction.

Democrats, by an 82% to 6% margin, prefer change. Among Republicans, however, 69% want to support the way things are going while 14% prefer change. Among Independents, 51% favor change while 20% are committed to staying the course (see question wording and crosstab results).

Data released earlier showed that 52% of Democrats consider this the most important election of their lifetime. That view is also held by 35% of Republicans and 22% of Independents.

The national survey of 1,005 Registered Voters was conducted November 4-5, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Other data from the latest survey shows that 29% believe the economy would be better if Hillary Clinton had won the presidential election. Thirty-nine percent (39%) believe it would be worse.

However, with Clinton in the White House, 38% believe the country would be less divided. Twenty-eight percent (28%) think it would be more divided.

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters believe President Trump is more polarizing that President Obama. However, 25% believe Obama was more polarizing and 13% believe they were equally polarizing.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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79% Favor Requiring Voters to Show Photo ID Before Casting Ballot

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Americans believe people should be required to show a photo ID before voting. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that view is shared across every age, gender, and racial group in the survey (see question wording and crosstab results).

Ninety-four percent (94%) of Republican voters support photo I.D. rules along with 81% of independents and 68% of Democrats. Support also comes from 77% of African-American voters, despite numerous arguments over the years that the idea of requiring I.D. to vote is a Republican tactic to suppress the black vote.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 30-31, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The questions of voter fraud, illegal immigrant voting, and the extent to which each are a serious problem have been hotly debated in recent years along partisan lines in America.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters believe that too many eligible voters are denied the right to vote and that it is a bigger problem than ineligible people being allowed to cast their ballots. That’s compared to 27% of respondents who say ineligible people being allowed to vote is the bigger problem. Twenty-three percent (23%) of Americans believe neither issue is a problem.

Data released earlier showed that most voters in both parties believe the other side cheats. Most Democrats (59%) believe that Republican officials actively try to suppress the vote of non-white Americans. Most Republicans (58%) believe Democratic officials actively encourage non-citizens to vote.

Despite all this, 76% are generally confident the votes will be properly counted.

Also, Democratic Party-affiliated officials in San Francisco have recently begun efforts to register non-citizens to vote in school board elections. The Democratic Party-dominated Boston City Council is also considering allowing illegal immigrants to vote in local elections.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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51% Think Members of Congress Should Vote From Their Districts

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters support having members of Congress voting on legislation electronically from the Congressional District they represent. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that younger voters are more comfortable with the concept than their elders.

The idea was tested using a split sample approach (see crosstabs).

Half of all voters were asked this question:

Currently, members of Congress vote in-person on legislation in Washington, D.C. To what extent do you support or oppose members of Congress voting on legislation electronically from the Congressional District they represent?

The other half heard the question with some additional information highlighting potential benefits:

Currently, members of Congress vote in-person on legislation in Washington, D.C. surrounded by political professionals. To what extent do you support or oppose members of Congress voting on legislation electronically from the Congressional District they represent?

The different wording had no measurable impact on the results. Among those who heard the first question, 50% liked the idea of representatives voting from the home district. Among those who heard the second question, 52% agreed.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 31-November 1, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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42% Recognize that Rules are Stacked Against Third Party Candidates

Why doesn’t a major third party exist in America? A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 42% of voters say Republicans and Democrats write election laws to make it difficult for third party candidates to compete. Thirty-four percent (34%) say there aren’t more successful third party candidates because voters don’t have much interest in them.

The survey also found that just 36% believe America would be at least somewhat better off with a major third political party competing in the election process. Thirty-one percent (31%) say a major third party would make no difference, and 16% say it would make things at least somewhat worse.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 30-31, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

When looking deeper at the results, several differences arise when it comes to age, gender, and party affiliation. (see question wording and crosstab results).

Not surprisingly, independent voters are more likely to say the election laws written by Republicans and Democrats are the reason there are so few successful third party candidates. Forty-nine percent (49%) of independents blamed existing election laws compared to an identical 40% of Republicans and 40% of Democrats respondents who agree.

Forty-six percent (46%) of male voters believe third party candidates are mostly stopped by the existing election laws compared to 38% of female voters. Younger voters are also more likely to blame the election laws written by Republicans and Democrats.

As for the impact, not even half of Independent voters believe a major third party would make things better in America. Just 44% of them saying it would, along with 35% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats.

Here too, some key differences arise when the results are broken down by different demographic and age groups.

Forty-six percent (46%) of male voters say a major third party would make America at least somewhat better off compared to just 28% of female respondents.

Younger voters tend to believe more in the positive effects of a third party than older Americans. Forty percent (40%) of voters aged 18-34 and 41% of voters aged 35-49 say a major third party would make America at least somewhat better off. Only 34% of voters aged 50-64 and just 29% of voters aged 65-plus agree.

The effect of third party candidates has been in focus lately. Both the Libertarian Party candidate in the Montana U.S. Senate race and the Green Party candidate in the Arizona U.S. Senate race dropped out of the running in the week leading up to the midterm elections. Those events were expected to boost Republican candidate Matt Rosendale in Montana and Democratic Party nominee Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.

This comes also on the heels of longtime independent Senator Bernie Sanders switching to a Democratic Party affiliation to successfully run more competitively against Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential nomination. Sanders quickly switched back to an independent after the election.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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On Air with Sean Trende and Jesse Watters

Last night, Sean Trende and I joined Jesse Watters on Fox News to discuss Midterm expectations. Sean may be the most level-headed analyst in the nation today and it’s always a pleasure to chat with him. And, it’s also comforting when our assessment of the situation is pretty much the same.

During the segment, I gave a concise overview of five toss-up Senate races (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri,  and Nevada). Bottom line is that all are so close that I wouldn’t be shocked to see either candidate win any particular race. However, in the aggregate, the expectation remains that the GOP will pick up seats in the Senate. Sean even added that it wouldn’t surprise him to wake up on Wednesday and find that the Republicans have a 55-45 advantage in the Senate.

 

 

 

Posted in Deeper Currents

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Most Voters in Both Parties Believe The Other Side Cheats

Most Democrats (59%) believe that Republican officials actively try to suppress the vote of non-white Americans. Just 18% disagree.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that Republicans are just as skeptical about the opposition party. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe Democratic officials actively encourage non-citizens to vote. Only 16% disagree.

Overall, among all voters 37% believe the GOP is involved in vote suppression while 34% believe Democrats try to get ineligible voters to the polls (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 30-31, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier showed that 76% of voters are generally confident that the votes will be properly counted on Election Day. However, they are less comfortable with what the winners do after election day. Seventy percent (70%) believe elected officials use their position to help businesses that support them.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe the 2018 midterms are the most important election of their lifetimes. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe that the U.S.is more polarized today than at any point in our nation’s history. Still, 71% say decisions they make have a bigger impact on their life than policies of the federal government.  That view is shared by 79% of Independents, 73% of Republicans, and 62% of Democrats.

My new book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not, describes how the culture leads our nation forward while politicians lag behind.  It’s the reason I’m optimistic about our nation’s future. In fact, I am confident the culture is even powerful enough to fix our broken political system.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Voters Support All of the Above Approach to Reduce Illegal Immigration

Reflecting a widely shared belief that legal immigration is good for America but illegal immigration is bad, voters support a wide variety of measures to reduce illegal immigration.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 66% support having the U.S. military defend the southern border of the U.S.; 66% support strict punishment for landlords that knowingly rent apartments to illegal immigrants; 65% support strict punishment for companies that knowingly hire illegal immigrants; and 64% support cutting off federal funding for cities that refuse to co-operate with federal immigration officials.

Additionally, to help speed up the application process for people trying to enter the U.S. legally, 66% support having the federal government hire more workers at border entry points.

A smaller majority (53%) favor building a wall along the nation’s southern border. Thirty-three percent (33%) strongly favor building a wall while 30% are strongly opposed. On all of the other measures asked about in the survey, strong support significantly outweighs strong opposition (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 1-2, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier showed that 50% of voters nationwide believe that a child born in the United States to an illegal immigrant should be considered a U.S. citizen. However, if a pregnant woman enters the country illegally and has her child, just 38% believe she should be allowed to remain in the country after giving birth. Additionally, among all voters, just 21% believe the new mother’s relatives should be allowed to enter the United States.

Overall, 77% believe that our immigration system should prioritize people with skills that could benefit the economy rather than granting legal status to people with relatives in the United States. That view is shared across partisan and demographic lines.

Underlying these attitudes is a strong belief among voters that legal immigration is good for the country while illegal immigration is bad. Such attitudes acknowledge that we are both a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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37% Say This Is Most Important Election of Their Lifetime

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters nationwide believe the 2018 midterms are the most important election of their lifetimes. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 52% of Democrats believe the stakes are that high. That view is also held by 35% of Republicans and 22% of Independents. 

Thirty-eight percent (38%) expect the results to have a significant impact on their life.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, there is no generation gap on this issue. Senior citizens have seen many more elections than younger voters, but are just as likely to say that this is the most important one they’ve seen.

Fifty-five percent (55%) believe that the U.S.is more polarized today than at any point in our nation’s history. Only 16% disagree. These results may reflect current political rhetoric and media saturation more than thoughtful reflection. The nation was certainly more polarized during the Civil War and at other points in our history. Even the riot-filled 1960s were more polarized than today .

However, voters displayed a sense of perspective when responding to a different question. Seventy-one percent (71%) say decisions they make have a bigger impact on their life than policies of the federal government.  That view is shared by 79% of Independents, 73% of Republicans, and 62% of Democrats (see question wording and crosstab results).

That’s consistent with data released earlier showing that Americans recognize that the nation’s fate is not determined by our politicians. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on the world we live in than all eight presidents who have served since Apple and Microsoft were founded.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 2-3, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

By way of disclosure, I have spend many years saying that people overstate the impact of elections. Every year, I cringe when activists and pundits claim that the next election is the most important ever. My new book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not, describes how the culture leads our nation forward while politicians lag behind.  It’s the reason I’m optimistic about our nation’s future. In fact, I am confident the culture is even powerful enough to fix our broken political system.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Generic Ballot: Democrats 50% Republicans 42%

During a full week of polling from October 28-November 2, 2018, ScottRasmussen.com found that 50% of the nation’s most likely voters would vote for the Democrat from their district while 42% would vote for the Republican.  That’s up a point from last week’s 49% to 42% advantage. However, it is down a point from the Democratic advantage two week’s ago.

The survey also found that 3% would vote for some other party and 5% are not sure (see crosstabs).

In polling on six key Senate races, we offer results based upon three distinct turnout models over three different time frames. So far, the numbers look pretty good for Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Jon Tester (D-MT). The other races remain too close to call.

This Generic Ballot data is based upon a survey of 5,000 Registered Voters were surveyed by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Interviews were conducted between October 28 and November 2, 2018.  A total of 3,167 Voters indicated that they will “Definitely” vote and are considered the most likely voters.

For the full Registered Voter sample, the statistical margin of error is approximately +/- 1.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. For the results based upon the most likely voters, it is +/- 1.8.

Some outlets have mistakenly reported that we are partnering with Harris Interactive. That is inaccurate. HarrisX is a separate firm (though they share some common ownership. Additionally, neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion.

The final three days of polling showed Democrats doing a bit better than the full week average. This could be a sign of late momentum for the Democrats or it may merely be statistical noise. To get a sense of the movement, we have decided to keep our daily tracking going throughout the final weekend of Election 2018. To keep up with the ongoing daily results, sign up for our Morning Update emails).

ScottRasmussen.com currently defines a likely voter as those who say they are “Definitely” going to vote as likely voters.  Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republicans now say they will definitely vote, unchanged from last week. In what may be another sign of Democratic momentum, 70% of Democrats are definitely planning to vote, up three points from a week ago.

Because it is so difficult to estimate turnout, we also look at data offering a slightly expanded definition of likely voters including those who are “Very Likely” to vote. By that measure, the Democrats have a six-point advantage, 48% to 42%. Among all Registered Voters, the Democrats hold a 44% to 37% advantage. As I noted earlier in the week, a very modest change in voter turnout could have a significant impact on the final results.

We update the Generic Congressional Ballot results on a weekly basis along with the President’s Job Approval.

 

 

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President Trump Job Approval 46%

Forty-six percent (46%) of the most likely voters nationwide approve of the way that President Trump is handling his job while 54% disapprove. These results, based upon a full week of polling from October 28-November 2, 2018, are unchanged from a week ago. Twenty-four percent (24%) Strongly Approve and 38% Strongly Disapprove   (see crosstab results).

During this week, Democrats expanded their lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot to eight points. The number who believe the nation is on the Right Track increase three points to 44%.

In polling on six key Senate races, we offer results based upon three distinct turnout models over three different time frames. So far, the numbers look pretty good for Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Jon Tester (D-MT). The other races remain too close to call.

This Job Approval data is based upon a survey of 5,000 Registered Voters were surveyed by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Interviews were conducted between October 28 and November 2, 2018.  A total of 3,167 Voters indicated that they will “Definitely” vote and are considered the most likely voters.

For the full Registered Voter sample, the statistical margin of error is approximately +/- 1.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. For the results based upon the most likely voters, it is +/- 1.8.

Some outlets have mistakenly reported that we are partnering with Harris Interactive. That is inaccurate. HarrisX is a separate firm (though they share some common ownership. Additionally, neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion.

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Weekly Monitor: 44% Say Nation Is On The Right Track

For the week ending November 2, 2018, (44%) of Registered Voters nationwide believe the United States is on the Right Track. That’s up three points from a week ago. ScottRasmussen.com polling also found that 56% disagree and believe we have gotten off on the wrong track.

Both men and women are a bit more optimistic this week. Still, there is a significant gender gap. Just 39% of women believe the country is on the right track along with 50% of men. Both totals are up three points from a week ago (see question wording and crosstab results).

Additionally, 21% of voters now trust the federal government to do the right thing most or all of the time. Nearly twice as many–39%–rarely or never trust it. In between are 40% who trust the federal government some of the time.

We update these results on a weekly basis along with the Generic Congressional Ballot and the President’s Job Approval. We also release several polling updates each day. Receive the latest daily insights by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

This Generic Ballot data is based upon a survey of 5,000 Registered Voters were surveyed by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Interviews were conducted between October 28 and November 2, 2018.  A total of 3,167 Voters indicated that they will “Definitely” vote and are considered the most likely voters.

For the full Registered Voter sample, the statistical margin of error is approximately +/- 1.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. For the results based upon the most likely voters, it is +/- 1.8.

Some outlets have mistakenly reported that we are partnering with Harris Interactive. That is inaccurate. HarrisX is a separate firm (though they share some common ownership). Additionally, neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion.

 

 

Posted in Poll Results

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Crosstabs Week Ending November 2, 2018

Return to Release/Analysis
See Generic Congressional Ballot
See President Trump Job Approval

Posted in Crosstabs

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Crosstabs Week Ending November 2, 2018

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See President Trump Job Approval


Return to Release/Analysis

See President Trump Job Approval

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Senate Polls Bring Good News for McSally (R-AZ) and Tester (D-MT)

ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX have been working with the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation to track six Senate races in Election 2018: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada.

For each race, results are presented with three different turnout models. In addition to a base projection, we model a High Republican turnout and a High Democratic turnout. The data has been released along three different time frames–a 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day rolling average. We do this because it’s the turnout that will decide the final outcome of the midterm elections.

The seven-day numbers have the most solid sample and lowest margin of error. However, the 3-day numbers may give a sense of momentum. They also, of course, are more susceptible to statistical noise and have a higher margin of error. The numbers should reviewed in the aggregate rather than cherry-picked for the results you most want to see.

The most recent data, released last night at 5 pm Eastern, shows that just two candidates lead across all time frames and turnout models: Republican Martha McSally in Arizona and Democrat Jon Tester in Montana. While the races are close, they appear to be favorites at the moment. In the other four races, each candidate has the lead in at least two of the time frame models we present. That’s the very definition of too close to call.

A couple of other notes on this project. First, some outlets have mistakenly identified our partner on the project as Harris Interactive. That is inaccurate. We are partnering with HarrisX, a separate firm (though it does share common ownership). Second, of course, neither I nor ScottRasmussen.com have any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Finally, we did not push undecided voters to see which way they are leaning. As a result, the undecideds are fairly high (7-10%). I generally assume some of these voters will stay home and the rest will break to some degree in the direction of the state’s political gravity. So, in states like Indiana, Missouri, and Montana, I’d expect a slight break in the GOP direction. That won’t be the case in Arizona, Florida, or Nevada. Check out the results for yourself.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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50% Support Birthright Citizenship

Fifty percent (50%) of voters nationwide believe that a child born in the United States to an illegal immigrant should be considered a U.S. citizen. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 39% disagree and 11%  are not sure.

Just 28% of Republicans favor birthright citizenship which may explain why President Trump has raised the issue in recent days. Seventy percent (70%) of Democrats believe that any child born in the U.S. should be considered a citizen, a view shared by 48% of Independent voters (see question wording and crosstab results).

Among those voters who are currently undecided or are planning to vote for a third party candidate, just 41% support birthright citizenship.

Most legal analysts believe that the U.S. Constitution guarantees citizenship to anyone born in the country. Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters recognize that current law provides citizenship to all born here.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted November 1-2, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Beyond the immediate issue of birthright citizenship, many conservatives have expressed concern about the impact “chain migration.” Under current federal law, U.S. citizens can sponsor their relatives to become legal U.S. residents and citizens. If a child born here is a citizen, he or she can sponsor relatives for legal immigration. Between 60 and 70 percent of all lawful permanent immigration to the United States in the past decade has family-based roots.

Voters are not supportive of this process. In the case of a pregnant woman who enters the country illegally and has her child, just 38% believe she should be allowed to remain in the country after giving birth. Additionally, among all voters, just 21% believe the new mother’s relatives should be allowed to enter the United States.

Overall, 77% believe that our immigration system should prioritize people with skills that could benefit the economy rather than granting legal status to people with relatives in the United States. That view is shared across partisan and demographic lines.

Underlying these attitudes is a strong belief among voters that legal immigration is good for the country while illegal immigration is bad. Such attitudes acknowledge that we are both a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws. It also helps explain why 65% of voters support sending troops to our southern border.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Dems Hold Steady Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot

For the three days ending November 1, Democrats enjoy a 49% to 43% lead on the Generic Ballot. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey of 1,913 Likely Voters found that 3% will vote for a third party candidate while 5% remain undecided (see crosstab results).

These numbers bounced around a bit in recent weeks but have stabilized in recent days. The three-day rolling average results showed Democrats with a 7-point advantage on the prior two releases.

A six or seven point popular vote victory on Tuesday would likely give the Democrats narrow control of Congress. However, as I have noted, a shift of just one or two percentage points in either direction could have a profound impact on the final outcome of Election 2018.

The national survey of 1,913 Likely Voters was conducted October 29-November 1, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a +/-2.3 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released today showed that 76% of voters are confident the ballots will be properly counted next week. Voters have confidence in both paper ballots and electronic ballots. However, they are skeptical about mail-in ballots and smartphone voting.

While voters are generally confident about counting the votes, they are less comfortable with what the winners do after election day. Seventy percent (70%) believe elected officials use their position to help businesses that support them.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Deeper Currents

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81% Trust Paper Ballots, 78% Trust Electronic Ballots

Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters trust elections conducted by paper ballots cast in a supervised election facility. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 78% say the same about electronic ballots cast in a supervised facility.

However, just 65% have such confidence in mail-in ballots. Three states currently use mail-in ballots for their elections (Oregon, Washington and Colorado). Just 34% trust voting by smartphone (see question wording and crosstabs).

Once the ballots are cast,  76% of voters are confident that votes will be counted correctly and the legitimate winner declared in just about every race.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 31-November 1, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Despite their general skepticism about unsupervised voting, 79% think it’s likely most voting will be done online within 20-25 years.

While voters are generally confident about counting the votes, they are less comfortable with what the winners do after election day. Seventy percent (70%) believe elected officials use their position to help businesses that support them.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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76% Confident That Votes Will Be Properly Counted

Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters nationwide are confident that votes will be counted correctly and the legitimate winner declared in just about every race. That total includes 35% who are Very Confident.

At the other end of the spectrum, a ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 18% are Not Very Confident about the vote counting and 6% are Not At All Confident.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 31-November 1, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of White voters are confident the votes will be counted correctly. That view is shared by just 59% of Black voters and 55% of Hispanic voters. Republicans (87%) are more confident than Democrats (70%) or Independents (71%). See question wording and crosstab results.

While voters are generally confident about counting the votes, they are less comfortable with what the winners do after election day. Seventy percent (70%) believe elected officials use their position to help businesses that support them.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Healthcare continues to be top midterm issue, Immigration jumps into top 5

Seventy-five percent (75%) of voters rate health care as a very important issue affecting their midterm election vote. That keeps health care as the number one issue rated by voters and represents a slight uptick from 72% a month ago.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey also showed that the economy remained second on the list of midterm issues, with 72% of respondents rating as very important to their vote. That’s up from 68% in the previous poll.

Naturally, there are partisan differences in the responses. More Democrats (84%) than Republicans (70%) rate health care as a very important midterm election issue. And more Republicans (80%) than Democrats (70%) rate the economy as very important to their midterm vote.

Data released earlier showed that voters tend to trust Democrats more than Republicans on health care. The reverse is true when it comes to the economy.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted on October 30-31, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Two other issues showed an increase in voter interest since early October are immigration and gun laws.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of Americans now rate immigration as a very important midterm election issue, compared to 52% in the previous ScottRasmussen.com survey.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters now say gun laws are a very important issue for their vote compared to 53% about four weeks ago.

The overall gains in voter interest in immigration may correspond to increased news coverage of the migrant caravan headed from Central America to the U.S. border with Mexico and the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting. Most voters are following these news stories. Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters support sending military troops to the Southern border. Other data shows that just 12% recognize that most gun deaths are suicides.

But here too, partisanship impacts the results. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republicans rate immigration as a very important midterm election issue compared to 60% of Democrats.

More Democrats (70%) than Republicans (54%) list gun laws as a very important to their midterm vote.

But health care and the economy still dominate the election stage. Just 34% of voters rate the U.S. health care system as good or excellent and Americans want more health care choices. One of the big campaign themes this year has been “Medicare for All,” but there’s a lot of confusion about what it means.

ScottRasmussen.com conducts a weekly economic survey in partnership with the Job Creators Network. Recent data has shown a high level of optimism about the economy. The latest numbers show that 75% of unemployed Americans expect to find a job in the near future.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Weekly Pulse: 53 Percent Say Economy is Strong Heading into Midterm Election

A solid majority of Americans see the economy as excellent or good, and only 13 percent believe conditions are poor just days before the most hotly contested midterm election in decades, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today.

“What we’re seeing in the data confirms everything we’ve heard from small business owners and employees all over the country,” said Elaine Parker, President of the JCN Foundation. “Confidence remains very high. The question is whether, and how, that sentiment will affect the way Americans vote next week.”

The Pulse found that 38 percent of Americans think the economy is getting better; 34 percent think it’s about the same; and 21 percent believe things are getting worse. There’s been no statistically significant change in any of the Pulse data for the past four weeks (see question wording and crosstabs).

The survey also found that 47 percent of Americans say their own personal finances are excellent or good. Almost a third believe their finances are improving. Thirty-four percent say things are fair, and 17 percent say their finances are poor.

Beneath the topline data there are some interesting demographic findings. Fifty-seven percent of Americans who live in suburbs – where many political analysts believe the election will be decided — say the economy is excellent or good. That’s higher than the survey results found in rural or urban areas.

“I think that’s an interesting statistic that might have implications next Tuesday,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “The economy is competing with healthcare as the top issue in the campaign. Suburban voters are slightly more confident in the economy than their counterparts in other parts of the country. And according to many experts, the suburban districts are the key battlegrounds.”

In addition to the Pulse survey, JCN/ScottRasmussen.com today released its Monthly Monitor, which draws upon surveys conducted over the course of the entire month.  Twenty-six percent of part-time workers say they are currently looking for a full-time job. As for those who are currently unemployed, 75 percent are confident they’ll find a job in the near future.

“That’s a very interesting result because it shows high level of confidence among Americans who do not currently have the job they want,” said Parker. “It’s a different and very personal way to find out how Americans feel about their own prospects in this economy.”

The national survey of 1,000 adults was conducted October 29-30, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Click here to view the entire report.

For more information about Job Creators Network, please visit www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com.

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The Midterms Are All About Turnout

As Election Day approaches, expectations are pretty much where they’ve been for the past six months. In the Senate, Republicans are more likely to gain seats than lose the majority. In the House, Democrats are favored to win control, but it may not be much of a Big Blue Wave.

These general expectations have remained fairly stable because the broad contours of every election are shaped by geography and history. Republicans are expected to do well in the Senate because Democrats must defend many seats in states that are generally GOP turf. Democrats are expected to do well in the House because the party out of power almost always gains ground in midterm elections. Even an average midterm result would put the Democrats in charge.

Despite this general stability, there are a wide range of possible outcomes because so many races are so close. As I write this on Wednesday, there are six highly competitive Senate races. Five of them are pure toss-ups (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada). Montana is barely tilting to the Democrats as Jon Tester tries to hang on in a very Republican state.

ScottRasmussen.com has been doing some private research for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation on all six of these races. In each case, we’ve examined three different turnout models. We have a baseline projection and then also look at what things might be like if turnout is just a couple of points better for one party or the other. The results are stunning. If Republican turnout is up just a couple of points better than expected, the GOP could win all six of those races. The reverse is true as well. If actual Democratic turnout is a couple of points higher than expected.

The practical implications of these small shifts are enormous. A Republican sweep of the competitive races would give them a 56-44 majority in the Senate. A Democratic sweep would lead to a 50-50 Senate. Most likely the results will end up somewhere in between; but the potential for a blowout in either direction cannot be completely dismissed.

The same dynamic exists for the House of Representatives where the Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to win control. ScottRasmussen.com currently projects that Democrats are poised to pick up 12 seats and there are 33 seats too close to call. The odds favor a Democratic majority because Nancy Pelosi’s team needs to win 11 of these 33 races. But, it’s not a sure thing.

Right now, the Generic Congressional Ballot polling shows Democrats with about a seven-point advantage. If they actually win the popular vote by that amount on Election Day, they would be favored to win most of the 33 competitive races. But, just like with the Senate, a shift of a couple of points could have an enormous impact.

If the Republicans are able to boost turnout a bit and pull within five points on the nationwide popular vote, they might be able to win enough close races to keep their majority. However, if things shifted a couple of points in the opposite direction, the Democrats might enjoy a big night and gain something on the order of 45 seats.

So, after two years of campaigning, the final outcome of Election 2018 will be determined by very modest changes in who decides to show up and vote.

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Voters See Free Markets As More Fair Than Socialism

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Free Market economic systems. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 62% have a favorable opinion of Capitalism while 40% offer a positive assessment of Socialism. Just 18% view Communism favorably.

These views closely correlate to what people see as fair: 73% believe free markets are fair. Sixty-one percent (61%) say the same about Capitalism. Only 42% believe Socialism is fair while 21% hold that view of Communism.

Those figures include 36% who have a Very Favorable opinion of Free Markets. Just 12% are that upbeat about Socialism (see question wording and crosstab results).

It’s important to remember that voter definitions of these terms may not be the same as historical understanding of them. For example, an earlier survey found that most voters with a favorable opinion of Socialism do not believe it means a more powerful government with higher taxes.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 25-26, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Socialism. However, 77% have a favorable opinion of Free Markets (see question wording and crosstab results).

Among Republicans, 83% like Free Markets and 20% have a positive view of Socialism.

As for Independent voters, 80% have a favorable opinion of Free Markets and 45% say the same about Socialism.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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23% Believe Most White Americans Are Racist

Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters nationwide believe that most white Americans are racist. A ScottRasmussen.com nation survey found that view is held by 14% of white voters, 40% of black voters, and 41% of Hispanic voters.

There is also a substantial generational divide on the issue. Among voters under 35, 37% believe most white Americans are racist. Among senior citizens, just 11% agree.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted August 28-29, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Other data from the survey showed that 28% of white voters believe most persons of color are racist. That view is shared by 17% of black voters and 35% of Hispanic voters.

Interestingly, on this question, there was little generational difference. 28% of the youngest voters believe most persons of color are racist along with 35% of seniors (see question wording and crosstab results).

Data released earlier showed that 58% believe racism towards persons of color remains a large problem in the United States.  Additionally, 67% recognize that black men are likely to receive stricter prison sentences than white men for comparable crimes.

However, 33% believe that racism against whites is also a big problem. That total includes 32% of Republicans, 10% of Democrats, and 13% of Independent voters (see question wording and crosstab results). Seventeen percent (17%) believe that white Americans are discriminated against more than any other group in society.

Just 24% of voters believe a healthy democracy is possible when disagreements fall along racial lines.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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To Meet With Rep In Congress, 40% Believe You Must First Pay 10K or More

To meet regularly with their Representative in Congress, 40% of voters believe they’d have to make a contribution of $10,000 or more. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that half that group–20% of all voters–believe it would require a contribution of $100,000.

However, at the other end of the spectrum, 49% believe that no contribution would be required to meet regularly with their representative in Congress. Women (55%) are more likely than men (43%) to believe that no contribution would be required. Younger voters and liberals are more likely than others to see a need to pay first and meet later (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 24-25, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier showed that 70% of voters believe elected officials use their position to help businesses that support them. Additionally, 37% believe that the candidate who raises the most money wins most of the time.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Midterm Momentum?

At ScottRasmussen.com, we track the Generic Congressional Ballot on a daily basis and have been reporting the results weekly. On Saturday, our weekly data showed that the Republicans had been gaining ground. The race appeared to be tightening as the migrant caravan dominated the news. However, we also noted that Friday’s results were the best of the week for Democrats and speculated that news about the mail bombings may have had an impact.

With polling data, it’s often difficult to tell whether a single day’s results are a blip, the start of a trend, or merely statistical noise. So, I’ve been checking the data daily during the final week of the campaign.

Results from yesterday showed another good day of polling for the Democrats. Looking at the most likely voters on a three-day rolling average basis, our numbers showed the Democratic lead had fallen from ten points a couple of weeks ago to five-points as of last Thursday.

As of this morning, however, the Democratic lead is back up to nine-points. This may be a trend showing momentum for the Democrats or it may just be that the real number is somewhere in between. In either case, Republicans are not currently closing the gap. A different turnout model shows somewhat better numbers for the GOP but the same trend.

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70% of Voters Following the Mail Bomber Story, 66% the Pittsburgh Synagogue Shooting

With a number of breaking and developing stories over the past few days to choose from, more Americans have been closely following the story of the mail bombs sent to the prominent Democrats than any other story.

A new ScottRasmussen.com national survey shows 70% of voters have been following the mail package bombs story either Very or Somewhat closely.

By comparison, 66% of respondents say they’ve been following the news of the deadly shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue on Saturday.

A majority of voters (60%) are also at least somewhat closely following the continuing news on the migrant caravan headed north to the U.S. border.

But two other current stories failed to grab as much voter attention. Only 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat closely following the continuing U.S. stock market selloff. Just 40% of respondents say they are very or somewhat closely following the story of anchor Megyn Kelly leaving NBC.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 28-29, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Partisan differences were modest, though Republicans were a bit more likely to pay attention to the migrant caravan (see question wording and crosstab results).

Many believe these stories could impact the midterm elections. President Trump himself appears to see the migrant caravan story as a way to remind voters of the importance of the kind of improved border security he and most Republican candidates support.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh shooting and mail bombs have been used as a reason for  many Democrats and critics of President Trump to blame him for setting a tone ripe for violent domestic attacks.

Similarly, an end to the long-running bull market on Wall Street could be a more favorable result for Democrats looking to quiet President Trump’s boasting about the nation’s economic strength.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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38% Expect Democrats to Win House; 36% Think GOP Will Win

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Registered Voters nationwide expect the Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives when the voting stops next week. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 36% disagree and think the Republicans will hang on for victory while 26% are not sure.Democrats will emerge victorious while 22% are not sure.

We have asked this question seven times this year and this is the first time a plurality picked the Democrats to win. The difference is that confidence among Republican voters is down a bit. Seventy-one percent (71%) of the GOP faithful think their team will win, down from a peak of 80%. Democratic confidence is now at 72%, the first time they’ve topped the GOP (see question wording and crosstab results).

Last week, among all voters, Republicans were favored by a 40% to 37% margin.

Most political analysts expect the Democrats to win a majority. Currently, the ScottRasmussen.com race-by-race analysis shows 31 House races are highly competitive (either pure toss-ups or just tilting to one of the parties). Democrats need to win 11 of those 31 to take control. On the Generic Congressional Ballot, the Democrats have a 7-point lead among the most likely voters.

Earlier surveys found that voters and pundits agreed that Republicans were likely to keep control of the Senate. Last week, Republicans were favored by a 46% to 31% margin. Now, however, just 38% believe the GOP will keep the Senate and 35% think Democrats will take over. Republican confidence in keeping the Senate has fallen ten points to 74%. Democratic confidence that their team will win increased four to 66%.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 21-22, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

In the past, voter expectations have often been a good indicator of election outcomes. Currently, though, Republican confidence in keeping the House and Democratic confidence about winning the Senate conflict with the expectations of most political analysts. The most likely explanation at the moment is that both sides are viewing the election through partisan blinders. It’s also possible that these partisan attitudes are reinforced by media commentary presenting the best case analysis for their team.

On the other hand, it’s possible that voters sense something is going on that the pundits and analysts haven’t seen yet. If that’s the case, momentum at the moment seems to be heading in the Democratic direction.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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81% Believe Legal Immigration Good for US, 81% Believe Illegal Immigration Bad

Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters nationwide believe that legal immigration is good for the United States. That’s up 10 points since August. However, a ScottRasmussen.com poll also found that 81% believe illegal immigration is bad for the nation. That’s up two points since the earlier survey.

Legal immigration is seen as good by 87% of Democrats, 80% of Republicans, and 77% of Independent voters.

Illegal immigration is seen as bad by 95% of Republicans, 82% of Independents, and 69% of Democrats (see question wording and crosstabs).

These results confirm earlier data showing that most voters see a significant distinction between legal and illegal immigration. Such attitudes acknowledge that we are both a nation of immigrants and a nation of laws. It also helps explain why 65% of voters support sending troops to our southern border.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 24-25, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters now believe the focus of immigration reform should be on stopping illegal immigration. Forty-seven percent (47%) believe that the primary focus should be on resolving the status of illegal immigrants already living in the country. In August, those numbers were 50-50.

Sixty-three percent (63%) believe that immigrants who enter the country illegally represent a potential national security threat to the United States. That figure is unchanged since August. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe they reduce the wages paid to American workers.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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70% Believe Elected Officials Use Their Office to Help Businesses That Support Them

Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe elected officials use their office to help businesses that support them. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that just 4% disagree and 26% are not sure.

That total includes 80% of senior citizens and 62% of voters under 35 (see question wording and crosstabs).

On the flip side, 39% of all voters believe that officials use their offices to hurt businesses that don’t support them. On this point, 16% disagree and 45% are not sure.

On a related question, 72% believe that donors get favorable treatment from the candidates they support. Six percent (6%) believe they do not.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 24-25, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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37% Believe Candidate With Most Money Wins Most of the Time

Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters nationwide believe that the candidate who raises the most money wins elections most or just about all of the time. A ScottRasmussen.com poll found that 44% believe the candidate with the most money wins some of the time and 18% say occasionally.

Younger voters are more likely than their elders to see a connection between raising the most money and winning elections. Among those under 35, 42% believe that the candidate who raises the most money usually wins. Just 27% of senior citizens agree (see question wording and crosstabs).

Political insiders focus extensively on how much various campaigns raise as a measure of candidate viability. Financial disclosures required by election laws are eagerly anticipated. However, most voters tune this out.

This year, Democrats have significantly outraised Republicans in Congressional elections. It has been heavily reported in the insider publications. But 49% of voters don’t know which party has raised more. Twenty-seven percent (27%) of voters mistakenly believe the GOP has raised more money while 24% think the Democrats have done so.

Interestingly, Republican voters are more likely to say Democrats have raised more while Democrats say Republicans have the cash advantage.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 24-25, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Sign up to receive the latest insights each day via email. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Voters Without Health Insurance Split On Congressional Vote

Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters without health insurance say they’ll cast a vote for the Democratic candidate in the upcoming Congressional elections. Thirty-one percent (31%) will vote for a Republican.

ScottRasmussen.com survey data shows that 14% would vote for a third party candidate, 6% don’t plan to vote, and 15% are undecided.

Just 38% of these voters rate the medical care they receive as good or excellent while 28% say the care they receive is poor. These numbers are far worse than for Americans with health insurance from any source. Not surprisingly, 51% of the uninsured rate our health care system as poor.

Health care and the economy have consistently remained the top issues in Election 2018. Democrats are generally trusted more on health care while Republicans are trusted more on the economy.  Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters believe it is Very Important to ensure that every American has access to quality health care. Not surprisingly, therefore, 81%  favor providing financial assistance to people who cannot afford health insurance or medical care.

However, despite surface appeal to the loosely defined concept, there is strong voter resistance to a Single-Payer Health Care plan. They expect health care solutions are to come from technology and competition rather than new government policies.

The data on uninsured voters comes from a series of national surveys conducted between August 6 and October 16, 2018. A total of 7,000 Registered Voters were interviewed  by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The sample included 524 uninsured voters, 321 who buy their insurance through a government Exchange, and 259 who buy their own insurance in some other manner.

Those who buy their insurance through an Exchange favor Democrats for Congress by a 53% to 28% margin. However, those who buy their own insurance in some other manner favor Republicans by a 41% to 37% margin.

People who get their insurance through the exchanges have a relatively positive view of the U.S. health care system–40% rate it as good or excellent while 29% say poor. However, those who buy their own insurance elsewhere are far less satisfied. Just 23% of these voters rate the health care system as good or excellent while 34% say it’s poor.

One key difference may be that the overwhelming majority of those who use an Exchange are receiving heavily subsidized insurance and paying relatively less out of pocket. It would seem reasonable to assume that those who are paying for the full cost of their individual coverage would be less pleased with the health care system.

Republican support among the uninsured may also be connected to the elimination of the individual mandate last December. Data released prior to the repeal of the mandate showed that 15 million Americans would opt out of buying the full-level of coverage required by Obamacare. The Trump Administration has recently issued rules making it possible for such people to buy more affordable and less comprehensive coverage.

Among those who receive health insurance from their employer, Democrats are favored by a 41% to 37% margin on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The numbers are similar for those on Medicare (43% Democrat, 37% Republican). Those on Medicaid strongly favor the Democrats by a 47% to 23% margin. Put it all together and the group most supportive of Democrats are those who buy insurance on the Obamacare Exchanges. Those who are most supportive of Republicans are those who buy insurance on their own.

Given that the survey data was collected over two months, some of the voting intentions may have shifted slightly as the campaign progressed. Additionally, this study makes no effort to measure Likely Voters.

The margin of error for data on uninsured voters is +/- 4.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. For data on those who buy insurance through the Exchanges, it is +/- 5.6 percentage points. For those who buy insurance on their own, it’s +/-6.2 percentage points.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Crosstabs October 21-26, 2018

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Crosstabs October 21-26, 2018

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See Generic Congressional Ballot and the President’s Job Approval.

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Just 24% Believe Healthy Democracy Possible When Disagreements Fall Along Racial Lines

Just 24% of voters nationwide believe it is possible to have a healthy democracy if there are policy disagreements that fall on entirely racial lines. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 49% say it is not possible and 27% are not sure.

The results were similar across most demographic, political, and racial lines.

Other data released recently showed that 58% of voters believe racism against persons of color is still a big problem in the United States. Other data shows that 67% recognize that, on average, black men receive stricter sentences than white men convicted of the same crime.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted August 23-24, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

My new book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not, describes how the culture leads our nation forward while the politicians lag behind.  It’s the reason I’m optimistic about our future and believe our nation is moving to fuller equality. In fact, I am confident the culture is even powerful enough to fix our broken political system.

But my book also addresses the complexity of the culture and the tangled racial legacy we have inherited. Chapter 11 begins with the following passage:

In 1619, two contradictory strands of American history got their start in Jamestown, Virginia. One strand was noble, the other was shameful.

On July 30, the first representative government in the American colonies was established. The House of Burgesses met in the Jamestown Church “to establish one equal and uniform government over all Virginia.” Thus began America’s long and generally successful experiment with self-governance.

However, in a twist of fate worthy of a Greek tragedy, the first enslaved people arrived in the same town just a few weeks later. They were probably literate and Christian, having been abducted by Portuguese slave traders from what is now Angola. British pirates raided the Portuguese ship, took roughly two dozen captives as their prize, and sold them in Jamestown.

Thus began America’s great national sin, a sin that has haunted the nation for four centuries.

These two narratives—one positive and one negative—have competed and interacted to define America ever since. These dueling histories directly impact the way we perceive events today.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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On Health Care, Americans Favor Competition and Technology over Government Solutions

A new national survey by ScottRasmussen.com shows that 42% of voters believe more competition will do more than government regulations to improve the quality of medical care in America. Just 22% believe more regulation is the answer.

In an almost identical split, 45% of respondents say increased competition between providers will do more to lower medical costs. That’s opposed to 23% who say more government regulations would get prices down (see question wording and crosstab results).

When the choice is between technology and government, the results are similar. Fifty-three percent (53%) say new technologies will have more impact on American health care in the future. Just 23% think new government policies will be more dominant. These attitudes have changed little since August.

Other recent polling shows there is great confusion about the concept of “Medicare for All.” The Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse found that 35% of Americans have never heard of it. The rest believe it means a variety of things. Only 15% think it resembles the plan advocated by Bernie Sanders. The results are consistent with earlier data showing strong voter resistance to Single-Payer Health Care.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 16-17, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Younger voters are more likely than their elders to trust government more for health care solutions. By a narrow 32% to 23% margin, voters aged 18-34 place more faith in government regulations to improve the quality of care.  Thirty-six percent of those young voters believe competition will do more to bring prices down while 32% say more government regulation (32%) is the way to go.

Beyond technology and policies, 81% say a person’s health and quality of life is more effected by lifestyle choices than the form of medical care they receive. Only 19% disagree.

Speaking of technology, a majority of respondents (57%) say smartphone apps and other devices that help people monitor their health do improve the health of the user. Forty-three percent (43%) disagree.

Health care has consistently led most polls as the top issue in the upcoming midterm elections.  And just 34% of voters rate the U.S. health care system as good or excellent.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data each day. Sign up to receive our daily email update. 

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Democrats Hold Edge with Voters on Health Care, Republicans on the Economy

By a 38% to 27% margin, voters trust Democrats on the issue of health care more than Republicans. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey shows that Democrats are holding their lead on what remains the top issue in the midterm elections.

But voters trust Republicans by a 36% to 27% margin over the Democrats on the economy, which is the second most important issue for voters this election cycle. Both results are similar to attitudes found last month.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 23-24, 2018 for ScottRasmussen.com by HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology.). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Another top midterm election issue is immigration. But on that issue, Americans remain more divided. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters trust the Republicans more on immigration while 32% prefer the Democrats. My most recent column looked more specifically at the politics of the caravan. Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters favor sending troops to the Southern border. Forty percent (40%) believe that these migrants should be held in a detention center near the border while their request for asylum can be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. Another 30% believe those in the migrant caravan should simply be turned away without any review.

Some of the biggest disparities in these poll results are based on gender. On health care, men are basically split on which party they trust more with 32% favoring the Democrats and 31% favoring Republicans. But women voters prefer the Democrats on health care by a large 44% to 23% margin (see question wording and crosstab results).

On the economy, the gender gaps persist. While men prefer Republicans on that issue by a 44% to 25% margin, women voters who support Democrats and those who back Republicans on the economy are split evenly at 29% apiece.

When the broad issue of the economy is drilled down to just job creation, some of those disparities become less pronounced. Overall, 38% of voters favor the Republicans on job creation to 23% who favor Democrats. But a larger number of men and women respondents both side with the Republicans over the Democrats on this part of the economy. Men trust the GOP over Democrats on job creation by a 44% to 21% margin and women also prefer Republicans over Democrats by 32% to 24%.

Voters are also generally split on gun laws. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Americans trust the Republicans more on this issue compared to 29% who trust Democrats more. Here too, there is a big difference between male and female respondents. More men trust the Republicans over Democrats on guns by 41% to 26% while more women prefer Democrats over Republicans on that issue by a 33% to 27% margin.

The gender gap is a key focus in this election as suburban women voters are once again expected to play the role of swing voters.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data each day. Sign up to receive our daily email update. 

You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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63% of Americans are Aware of Current Small Business Boom

Most voters (63%) know that American small businesses have been growing at a faster pace over the last two years compared to previous years.

The Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse found that 78% of Republicans are aware of that faster small business growth along with 53% of Democrats (see question wording and crosstab results).

Meanwhile, even though most American news media coverage focuses on larger businesses and the stock market, the survey shows strong evidence that most voters still know how vital smaller businesses are to the economy.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of respondents recognize that two-thirds of all new jobs in America are created by small businesses and 74% of voters know that 59 million Americans currently work for a small business.

This national survey of 1,119 Adults was conducted October 15-16, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

There is similar awareness of the changes small business owners and employees have experienced since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, also referred to as Obamacare. Sixty-two percent (62%) of respondents know that the number of small businesses offering health insurance to employees has gone down since the ACA became law.

While that awareness remains steady for Americans of all age groups, there are signs of a bit of a partisan bubble when it comes to the effects of Obamacare. However, just over half of self-described liberals are unaware that fewer small businesses are offering health care insurance since the passage of the ACA.

With health care consistently leading most polls as the top issue in the upcoming midterm elections, the effects of Obamacare on small business could be a key sub-issue for voters. Just 34% of voters rate the U.S. health care system as good or excellent.

At the same time, several economic analysts are documenting record optimism and confidence among small business owners. Many of those small business owners are crediting President Donald Trump’s tax and regulatory policies for the improvement. This may stand in contrast to what has been a volatile year for larger corporations and the stock market overall.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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70% Want Strong Action Against Saudi Arabia in Khashoggi Murder

Seventy percent (70%) of voters say the United States should take “strong action” against Saudi Arabia in response to news about slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that support for such action is equally high among both who strongly approve of President Trump and those who strongly disapprove of the president.

This is despite the fact that President Trump had warned against a rush to judgment in the case and critics attacked him for appearing to be too lenient on the Saudi regime.

Most voters (60%) say they are at least somewhat closely following the recent news stories about  That figure includes 26% who are following the stories very closely and 19% who are not following it closely at all.

The national survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted October 18-19, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

It is important to note that the survey was completed before Khashoggi’s death had been confirmed.

More men (33%) than women (19%) say they’re following the story very closely. More older voters aged 65-plus than 18-34 year-old respondents say they’re following the story very closely by a 33% to 16% margin. And more Democrats (31%) than Republicans (24%) say they are following the story very closely (see question wording and crosstab results).

The relatively high level of engagement with the Khashoggi story should not be too much of a surprise considering the heavy coverage it has received in the news media. Following the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, most newspapers, cable news networks, and news websites began a long stretch of leading with and focusing on Khashoggi’s disappearance and eventually confirmed death.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data each day. Sign up to receive our daily email update. 

You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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Support for Sending Troops To Border Up to 65%

In response to the migrant caravan currently in Mexico, 65% of voters now favor sending troops to the southern border of the United States. That’s up five points from a poll conducted just four days earlier.

The latest ScottRasmussen.com poll found that 93% of Republicans support that approach along with 68% of Independents. However, 60% of Democrats are opposed.

The number who think that some members of the migrant caravan might be national security threats increased from 55% in the earlier survey to 62% today. Data released earlier showed that 40% believe that these migrants should be held in a detention center near the border while their request for asylum can be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. Another 30% believe those in the migrant caravan should simply be turned away without any review.

Interest in the story has grown in recent days. Sixty-nine percent (69%) are now following the story at least Somewhat Closely. That’s up from 54% four days earlier. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans are following the story along with 68% of Democrats and 59% of Independents (see question wording and crosstab results)

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data each day. Sign up to receive our daily email update. 

In my latest syndicated column, I discussed how this issue could impact the midterm elections. Among voters who are uncommitted to either party on the Generic Congressional Ballot, 65% support sending U.S. military troops to the southern border. Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe that at least some of the participants in the caravan represent a national security threat.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 23-24, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error  with a 95% level of confidence.

Follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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40% Want Migrant Caravan Held Near Border, 30% Want Migrants Turned Away

Several thousand people are traveling through Mexico with the goal of entering the United States. Many are fleeing government corruption, extreme poverty and rampant violence. Forty percent (40%) of voters believe that these migrants should be held in a detention center near the border while their request for asylum can be reviewed on a case-by-case basis.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that another 30% believe the migrant caravan should simply be turned away at the border.  Nineteen percent (19%) think the migrants should be released into the U.S. while their case is reviewed and 11% believe that all the migrants should be granted asylum.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data each day. Sign up to receive our daily email update. 

President Trump has called the caravan an assault on our nation. Voters are evenly divided on that point. We asked half our our survey respondents about this without mentioning the president’s comments. Forty-two percent (42%) consider consider the migrant caravan from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras to be an assault on the United States. Forty-two percent (42%) disagree.

We told the other half of the respondents about President Trump’s description of the caravan as an assault on the nation. In that case, 48% agreed with the president and 42% disagreed.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 23-24, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error  with a 95% level of confidence.

There is a huge partisan divide on these questions. Ninety-two percent (92%) of Republicans want the migrants either held in a detention center near the border or simply turned away. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Independent voters agree. However, Democrats are evenly divided. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Democrats believe members of the caravan should either be granted asylum or released into the United States while their case is reviewed (see question wording and crosstab results).

In my latest syndicated column, I discussed how this issue could impact the midterm elections. Among voters who are uncommitted to either party at the moment, 66% believe that the migrants in the caravan should either be turned away at the border or held in a detention center.

Follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Strong Economy Seen Through Partisan Lens

The Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released every Thursday morning, continues to show evidence of a very strong economy.

Results from the survey conducted October 22-23, 2018 show:

  • Fifty-six percent (56%) rate the economy as good or excellent while 11% see it as poor.
  • Forty-one percent (41%) say the economy is getting better while 20% believe it is getting worse.
  • Fifty-one percent (51%) rate their own personal finances as good or excellent; 14% say poor.
  • Thirty-two percent (32%) believe their finances are getting better; 17% say worse.
  • Forty-nine percent (49%) believe firms in their area are hiring while 16% see layoffs.

These results are little changed from a week ago.

In this politically polarized era, it should come as no surprise that there are significant differences of opinion about the economy along partisan lines. Republicans, by a 74% to 11% margin believe the economy is getting better rather than worse. Democrats, by a narrower 30% to 21% margin, believe it is getting worse. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Independent voters believe the economy is getting better while 17% say the opposite.

On questions about personal finances, the gaps are smaller but still significant. Forty-five percent (45%) of Republicans say their finances are getting better while 11% say worse. Democrats (27% better/ 22% worse) and Independents (28% better/12% worse) are more evenly divided (see question wording and crosstab results).

Other data from the survey showed that there is a lot of confusion about “Medicare for All”. Voters aren’t sure what it means and aren’t excited about paying for it.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new data daily and you can receive the latest insights via email each morning

This survey of 1,110 U.S. Adults conducted October 22-23, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology).

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Which Team Will Be The Lesser of Two Evils on Election Day?

For the past two years, many Democrats thought that victory in 2018 would simply be a matter of running against Donald Trump. The only question in the minds of some activists was how big the Blue Wave would be.

For those in the party, opposing the president seemed to be enough. Two thirds of Democrats (64%) believe that Hillary Clinton would have won the election without any Russian interference. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democrats believe President Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

While those positions make sense to partisan Democrats, the fact remains that most other voters disagree. As a result, running against the president may not be enough.

That approach didn’t work two years ago because 10% of voters cast their ballot for candidate Trump even though they thought he was unqualified to serve as President of the United States. Those voters made him President Trump simply because they perceived him as the lesser of two evils.

It is possible, perhaps likely, that many undecided midterm voters are once again trying to decide which team is the lesser of two evils. While many have doubts about the current president, only 35% believe the country would be better off today if Hillary Clinton had won. A slightly larger number (41%) believe things would be worse with Clinton in the White House.

So, which team will be the lesser of two evils in Election 2018?

At ScottRasmussen.com, we took a look at the voters who have not yet decided how they will vote (or IF they will vote). The president’s Job Approval is just 41% among these uncommitted voters. If the election is purely a referendum on Trump, these voters might break heavily for the Democrats.

On the other hand, just 16% of these uncommitted voters believe life would be better if Clinton had won. Thirty-six percent (36%) think things would be worse. In many ways, these voters are hoping there is a way for both teams to lose.

That background explains why the migrant caravan of people fleeing El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras could have a significant impact on the final results. It’s an issue the president wants to talk about and the Democrats want to avoid. That’s because 79% of all voters believe illegal immigration is bad for the nation.

What about all those uncommitted voters? Sixty-five percent (65%) of them support sending U.S. military troops to the southern border to enforce the law. Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe that at least some of the participants in the caravan represent a national security threat.

Even more dramatically, only 10% of the uncommitted voters want people admitted into the US without a case-by-case review. Two-thirds (66%) believe that they should either be turned away at the border or held in a detention center.

In other words, the migrant caravan is precisely the sort of issue the president wants uncommitted voters to focus on in the closing days of the campaign. It’s an issue that uncommitted voters might just conclude makes Republicans the lesser of two evils.

Posted in Scott's Columns

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Americans Confused on Medicare for All

Thirty-five percent of Americans never heard of Medicare for All, and very few Americans appear willing to pay for the enormous cost, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today.

“There is deep confusion about one of the biggest political catchphrases of this cycle,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “It sounds good on the campaign trail partly because it means very different things to different people.”

The plan proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)  would require all Americans to give up their private coverage and get their health insurance through the Medicare program. However, only 15 percent of Americans believe that’s what “Medicare for All” means. The rest think it would be optional, or that the federal government would extend Medicare coverage to people who can’t afford to purchase insurance on their own (see question wording and crosstab results).

The survey also found that only 15 percent of Americans are willing to pay more than $500 to finance the program, which the Mercatus Center recently estimated would cost $32.6 trillion in the first 10 years.

“The tax increases required to pay for the program far exceed what most people are willing to pay for it, according to our research,” said Elaine Parker, President of the Job Creators Network Foundation.

The Bernie Sanders version of Medicare for All calls for numerous tax increases to finance the program, including a four-percent “premium” based on household income, and a 7.5 percent employer “premium” based on payroll. Most Americans would pay thousands more in taxes per year. But, according to the Pulse, most Americans are willing to pay far less.

“A quarter of Americans don’t want to pay anything, and a majority would pay $500 or less,” said Parker. “The numbers definitely don’t add up.”

Parker said that news organizations, public officials and political candidates – especially those who are backing the plan – have an obligation to explain in much more detail what Medicare for All would mean for most Americans and how much it would cost.

“Right now, it’s a feel-good, bumper sticker slogan,” said Parker. “But this is a very important issue. It’s personally important to all Americans and it has big implications for the economy and the health care system. Americans deserve much more information on this issue.”

The national survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted October 22-23, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

For more information about Job Creators Network, please visit www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com.

Posted in Deeper Currents, Poll Results

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Voters Like Legal Immigration, but 79% Say Illegal Immigration Bad

Perhaps the most important fact required to understand the politics of immigration is to recognize that voters see a huge difference between legal and illegal immigration.

Seventy-one percent (71%) believe legal immigration is good for the nation. At the same time, however, 79% believe illegal immigration is bad. A majority or plurality of just about every demographic group sees this important distinction between legal and illegal immigration. In other words, voters recognize our heritage both as a nation of immigrants and a nation of law.

That resistance to illegal immigration leads 60% favor sending U.S. military troops to the southern border of the United States to prevent people from entering the country illegally.

Tomorrow (Thursday) We will be releasing some additional polling data on the migrant caravan approaching the United States.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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The Lesser of Two Evil Midterm Elections

One often overlooked fact from 2016 is that 10% of all voters cast their ballot for candidate Trump despite believing he was unqualified to serve as president. Those voters selected the president because he was the lesser of two evils.

It is possible, perhaps likely, that many undecided midterm voters are now trying to decide which team is the lesser of two evils. With that in mind, it’s worth noting that only 35% of voters believe the country would be better off today with Hillary Clinton as president. That figure includes just 25% of Independent voters.

Overall, 41% believe things would be worse with Clinton in the White House and 25% aren’t sure that things would be much different. The president may not be all that popular but neither are his opponents.

That perspective explains why the migrant caravan is so challenging for the Democrats.  It’s an issue the president wants to talk about and the Democrats want to avoid. And, on this topic, the president is likely to be seen as the lesser of two evils. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of voters believe illegal immigration is bad for the nation. Sixty percent (60%) favor sending troops to the southern border.

Politically, the Democrats want the election to be a referendum on President Trump. The president wants to make it a choice between Republicans and Democrats on an issue that voters consider important.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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35% Believe Nation Would Be Better Off If Clinton Had Won

Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters believe the nation would be better off if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 41% believe things would be worse with Clinton in the White House (see question wording and crosstab results).

The totals include 4% who disapprove of President Trump but think things would be worse if Clinton had won.

Still, for many engaged in the political process, the most stunning finding may be that 23% either aren’t sure or don’t think things would be all that different with Clinton in the White House.

The national survey of 1,023 Registered Voters was conducted October 18-23, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error  with a 95% level of confidence. At ScottRasmussen.com, we ask this question as part our daily tracking and the results have varied little since August.

Other data shows that 34% believe Clinton would have won the election without Russian interference. A similar number (36%) believe that President Trump has committed treason. A slightly larger number (43%) believe the president should be impeached and removed from office.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data several each day. Sign up HERE to receive the latest numbers in our daily email update. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

 

Posted in Poll Results

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October 18-23, 2018

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Posted in Crosstabs

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16% Favor Guaranteed Income, Even for Those Unwilling to Work

Sixteen percent (16%) of voters favor providing every American a guaranteed income, even for those who are unwilling to work. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 33% favor the general idea of a guaranteed income but do not think it should be offered to those unwilling to work. Fifty-one percent (51%) are opposed to providing a guaranteed income.

These results are similar to those found in August.

Far more popular than a guaranteed income is a guaranteed job. Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters believe that everyone who is willing to work should be guaranteed a minimum wage job. However, only 34% believe the federal government should provide the guarantee. Thirty-two percent (32%) believe a job should be guaranteed by state or local governments. Fifteen percent (15%) favor a guarantee from outside the government and 19% do not support a guaranteed job.

Regardless of the details, 82% believe we already have a system where everyone who is willing to work can find a job (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 17-18, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error  with a 95% level of confidence.

The idea of providing a guaranteed income even for those unwilling to work is supported by 19% of men and 13% of women. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of those under 35 like the idea along with just 4% of those over 65. It draws support from 19% of Democrats, 16% of Independents, and 13% of Republicans.

Discussion about a Universal Basic Income has increased due to concerns about automation. In fact, 41%  believe that automation and robots will lead to mass unemployment. Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe that these technologies will create new types of jobs and provide good opportunities for workers. One study last year estimated that the robot revolution will create 21 million new jobs to offset 19 million lost jobs.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data four to eight times each day. Sign up HERE to receive the latest numbers in our daily email update. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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74% of Democrats Believe President Trump Should Be Impeached and Removed From Office

Seventy-four percent (74%) of Democratic voters believe President Trump should be impeached and removed from office. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that just 14% of Democrats disagree.

Not surprisingly, Republicans have an entirely different view. Just 9% believe the president should be impeached while 81% reject the idea.

Among Independents, 39% want the president impeached and removed from office while 41% do not.

Put it all together and 43% of voters favor impeachment, 43% are opposed, and 14% are not sure (see question wording and crosstab results). The figures are essentially unchanged since August.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 18-19, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error  with a 95% level of confidence.

The survey found the 44% believe candidate Trump colluded with the Russians during the campaign. Thirty-six percent (36%) believe he is guilty of treason. Other recent data show that 34% believe Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 election without Russian interference.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of voters consider themselves part of the resistance to President Trump.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data every day and you can Sign Up to receive the latest numbers in our daily email update.

You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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74% Define “Hate Speech” As Speech That Encourages Violence Against a Group of People

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters define “Hate Speech” as speech that encourages violence against a group of people. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that speech expressing dislike for a group of people qualifies as hate speech for 13%. Another 13% believe it’s speech considered offensive to a group of people.

Despite the overwhelming preference for a definition of hate speech that includes encouraging violence, there is a significant generational divide on the question. Ninety percent (90%) of seniors favor a definition that includes encouraging violence. That number shrinks to 61% among those under 35. For that younger group, speech expressing dislike for a group of people qualifies as hate speech for 20%. Another 19% believe it’s speech considered offensive to a group of people.

There is no gender gap on the issue and only a modest gap along racial and ethnic lines (see question wording and crosstab results).

The survey found that 97% of voters believe freedom of speech is at least Somewhat Important. That includes 80% who believe it is Very Important.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 16-17, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Voters are evenly divided as to whether supporting freedom of speech means that hate speech must be allowed. However, data released earlier shows that 64% believe letting the government define hate speech is more dangerous than hate speech itself.

However, 49% believe it is possible to come up with a definition of hate speech that is broadly accepted by everyone in society. To test that, ScottRasmussen.com created a list of 17 statements that some might consider offensive. Many of them were extremely offensive. We asked 1,000 voters whether each of the statements qualified as hate speech that should be banned, was offensive but should not be banned, or were neither hate speech nor offensive.

None of the items were labeled as hate speech by more than 49% of voters.  See the full list of statements and the topline results to appreciate how offensive some of the statements were. The refusal of a majority to say that any of them should be banned reflects a startling commitment to free speech .

It is important to note that this commitment to free speech does not mean voters find the specific comments acceptable. Data released earlier, and confirmed by the survey, found that 76% believe freedom of speech includes the right to say things that others find offensive.

Data released earlier found that 82% of voters are at least somewhat concerned that freedom of speech allows false rumors and statements to be spread. That includes 36% who are Very Concerned. On this topic, Republicans are more concerned than Democrats or Independents.

However, despite that concern, 64% believe it is better to live with the rumors than limit freedom of speech.

Earlier surveys showed that freedom of speech is seen by voters as the most important right confirmed in the Bill of Rights. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe that freedom is more important than democracy.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

Posted in Poll Results

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GOP Voters Remain Very Optimistic About Midterms

When all the votes are counted in November, 80% of Republican voters believe their team will retain majority control in the House of Representatives. Just 5% expect the Democrats to take over.

While most political analysts expect the Democrats to win, Republican voters are more optimistic than Democratic voters. Among the Democrats, 71% expect their team to win while 16% expect the Republicans to come out on top.

Among all voters, the GOP is narrowly favored by a 40% to 37% margin. Men, by an 11 point margin, think the GOP will win. Women, by a four-point margin, expect the Democrats to gain control (see question wording and crosstab results).

This is the sixth time we’ve asked about expectation and the results have been generally consistent. Last week, the GOP was favored by a 39% to 36% margin.  Voters were evenly divided in early October.

In the past, voter expectations have often been a good indicator of election outcomes. However, these expectations conflict with data showing the Democrats have a solid lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. One possible explanation is that the Republican voters sense something that has not yet been picked up in the polling or by the analysts. Another is that the GOP voters remember how pundits and analysts in 2016 overwhelmingly predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton.

The Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to win control of the House. They would probably have to win the popular vote nationwide by about six or seven points to accomplish that goal. Currently, the Generic Ballot polling shows Democrats with a slightly larger lead in the range of eight or nine points. If that lead shrinks in the coming weeks, analysts may begin to move their estimates closer to the voters.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 21-22, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

As for the Senate, voter and pundit opinions are more closely aligned. Forty-six percent (46%) of voters expect the GOP to maintain or expand their majority in the Senate. Thirty-one percent (31%) think the Democrats will take over. That 15-point gap is the largest yet measured. In early September, voters were evenly divided as to which party would win the Senate.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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34% Believe Clinton Would Have Won Without Russian Interference

If there had been no Russian interference, 34% of voters believe Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 Presidential Election. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that view is held by 64% of Democrats, 25% of Independents, and 6% of Republicans.

Overall, 56% of voters believe the Russians tried to interfere in the election while 44% disagree (see question wording and crosstab results).

These figures have changed little since August.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 21-22, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Just over half (53%) of voters believe that 2016 was the first time the Russians attempted to interfere in the US presidential election. The same percentage believe other countries try to interfere as well.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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38% Believe Tax Cuts Helped The Economy, 22% Say They Hurt

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters believe the tax cuts passed last year have helped the economy while 22% say they hurt. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 16% believe they had no impact and 24% are not sure.

In August, just 34% believe the tax cuts helped and 24% believe they hurt.

If Democrats win control of Congress, 73% of voters believe it’s likely they will try to repeal the tax cuts. That includes 28% who say it’s Very Likely.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 21-22, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

There is a huge gender gap on this topic. Forty-nine percent (49%) of men believe that the tax cuts helped the economy while 20% believe they hurt. Women are evenly divided; 28% believe they helped while 25% say the opposite.

Republicans, by a 69% to 7% margin, believe the tax cuts helped the economy. Democrats, by a narrower 37% to 16% margin, take the opposite view and believe they hurt. Among Independent Voters, 35% believe the tax cuts helped the economy and 21% believe they hurt (see question wording and crosstab results).

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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GOP to Gain 2 Senate Seats According to Betting Markets

As of 11:00 a.m. eastern on October 22, the betting markets at PredictIt.org were projecting a 2 seat Republican pick-up in the Senate. Democrats Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Claire McCaskill (MO) have less than 50-50 odds of keeping their job. No other incumbent is given less than a 50-50 chance of winning.

Still, there’s plenty of room for change–in either direction. The most vulnerable Republican, Dean Heller (NV), is considered a 50-50 shot. Two other Democrats, Bill Nelson (FL) and Joe Donnelly (IN), are seen as having just slightly better than even money odds. That suggests a range of potential outcomes with the GOP gaining anywhere from one to four seats.

Overall, the Democrats are given just a 16% chance of winning the Senate this year.

 

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24% Believe Border Patrol Enforcement Too Harsh, 42% Say Too Lenient

When it comes to enforcing immigration laws, 24% of voters nationwide believe the United States Border Patrol is too harsh on on illegal immigrants. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 42% believe the enforcement policies are too lenient and 34% are not sure.

There is a strong partisan divide on this question. Among Republican voters, 70% believe the enforcement is too lenient while just 5% say it is too harsh. Democrats are more divided but lean in the opposite direction: 43% say too harsh and 27% too lenient. A plurality (46%) of Independent voters are not sure. Thirty-three percent (33%) of Independent voters say the policy is too lenient and 21% too harsh.

There is also a racial divide on the question. White voters, by a 49% to 19% margin, believe the policy is too lenient. Black voters, by a 37% to 25% margin say it’s too harsh. As for Hispanic voters, 36% say too harsh and 28% too lenient (see question wording and crosstab results).

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters have followed recent new stories about immigrants from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador fleeing to the United States. Eighteen percent (18%) are following it Very Closely.

Data released earlier showed that 60% favor sending U.S. military troops to the southern border of the United States to prevent people from entering the country illegally.

A solid majority of voters (71%) believe that legal immigration is generally good for the nation. At the same time, however, 79% believe illegal immigration is bad. Other data shows that voters are evenly divided on the focus of immigration reform. Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe that the focus of immigration reform should be on stopping illegal immigration. The other half believe that the primary focus should be on resolving the status of illegal immigrants already living in the country.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data daily and you can Sign Up to receive the latest numbers in our morning email update. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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When It Comes to Racism, Americans Split on the Importance of Intent

Voters are split on whether a person’s intentions make their actions racist, but there’s more agreement that intent isn’t as important when assessing the effects of potentially racist laws.

A new ScottRasmussen.com national survey shows that 38% of voters believe an action is not racist as long as that was not the intent of the person carrying it out. But an almost equal number of respondents (37%) disagree, and 26% aren’t sure.

As is the case in many surveys about race, white and black voters differ on this issue. Forty-seven percent (47%) of black respondents say non-racist intent doesn’t stop an action from being racist. Only 33% of whites agree (see question wording and crosstab results).

But there is more agreement across the board when voters are asked about the effects of laws or practices.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters say it would be racist to continue supporting a law, regardless of its intent, if it is found to be specifically harmful to one specific group. On this issue, the majority of white and black respondents agree. Seventy-three percent (73%) of black voters say supporting such a law would be racist along with 61% of whites.

Even more agreement applies when voters are asked about individuals knowingly benefiting from discrimination. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of respondents overall consider that racist, with 60% of blacks and 58% of whites agreeing with that assessment.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted August 23-24, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier shows that 58% believe racism towards persons of color is a major problem in the U.S. today.

Additionally, 67%  are aware that black men are more likely to receive longer prison sentences than white men convicted of the same crimes. Voters are also keenly aware of other major problems with our prison system.

This awareness seems to have been at least part of the impetus behind rapper Kanye West’s recent visit to the White House to discuss prison reform with President Trump.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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45% Concerned That A.I. and Robots May Wipe Out Human Life

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters nationwide are at least somewhat concerned that robots guided by artificial intelligence (A.I.) will destroy human life on earth. That total includes 16% who are Very Concerned. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 54% do not share that concern, including 24% who are Not at All Concerned.

Respondents are also split down the middle when it comes to the overall nature of A.I. and robotics, with 51% saying the growing use of this technology is a good thing and 49% saying it’s a bad thing.

Still, nearly half of voters (45%) think it’s at least somewhat likely that most voters will own a personal robot within a decade or so. A third (33%) think it’s likely that they will own a robot someday. That includes 48% of voters under 35 and just 12% of senior citizens (see question wording and crosstab results).

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 17-18, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Concerns about the future of A.I. and robotic labor have appeared frequently in the news over the past two years, but mostly in the financial news. Perhaps the biggest doomsayer about this issue is Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk, who has said that he believes A.I. is far more dangerous than nuclear weapons.

Perhaps even more pervasive is the long history of fictional movies like “The Terminator” and TV dramas like “WestWorld” that have featured the narrative of sentient robots taking over the world as a major plot device.

Despite all that, the survey shows that 55% of respondents say they haven’t followed news stories about A.I. and robotics very closely or at all. Just 12% have been following news on the topic Very Closely.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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Crosstabs October 14-19, 2018

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60% Favor Sending Troops to Southern Border

Sixty percent (60%) of voters nationwide favor sending U.S. military troops to the southern border of the United States to prevent people from entering the country illegally. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 30% strongly favor such a step.

Fifty-five percent (55%) believe it is at least somewhat likely that some of those seeking to enter the United States illegally from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador are national security threats (see question wording and crosstab results).

Voters are evenly divided on whether the United States should stop all payments, including humanitarian aid, to countries that allow their citizens to attempt to enter the United States illegally.

President Trump has recently brought up the possibility of sending troops to the border and withholding payments in response to reports of a caravan of people who may try to enter the U.S. illegally. Such talk will certainly connect with his base. Sending troops to the border is favored by 88% of Republican voters and 53% of Independents. It is also supported by 41% of Democrats.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 18-19, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier shows that 71% of voters believe that legal immigration is generally good for the nation. At the same time, however, 79% believe illegal immigration is bad. Media coverage and political discussion of the issue often defines voters as either favoring or opposing immigration. But most Americans see a significant difference between legal and illegal immigration. A majority or plurality of just about every demographic group sees an important distinction between legal and illegal immigration.

Other data shows that voters are evenly divided on the focus of immigration reform. Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe that the focus of immigration reform should be on stopping illegal immigration. the other half believe that the primary focus should be on resolving the status of illegal immigrants already living in the country.

While there is strong support for allowing children brought into the United States illegally by their parents to remain in the U.S., the same attitude does not extend to their parents. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters believe the parents should be allowed to remain. An earlier ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 38% disagree and say they should not while 25% are unsure.

The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new new polling data daily and you can Sign Up to receive the latest numbers in our daily email update. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Little Day of Week Bias in ScottRasmussen.com Polling Data

One of the great challenges in conducting any survey research is the possibility of structural bias in the data collection process. One possible bias is that surveys on a particular day of the week may produce different results than some other day.

At ScottRasmussen.com, we recently compared the results of data collected each day of the week and found a reassuring level of consistency.

For all surveys launched on Sunday nights, the president’s Job Approval rating was at 46%. It was 47% for surveys launched on Monday and Wednesday. On Tuesday and Thursday launches it was 48%. For each of those days, we conducted more than 10,000 interviews with registered voters.

We launched a much smaller number of interviews on Friday nights, but the results were also broadly consistent and average a 48% approval rating.

On the Generic Congressional Ballot, the consistency was the same. On average, Democrats led by 6 to 8 percentage points regardless of the day the poll was launched.

ScottRasmussen.com will soon be releasing both the president’s Job Approval ratings and the Generic Congressional Ballot on a daily basis. When we do, we will release results on a three day rolling average basis. This provides even more consistency and continuity than the single day numbers.

See a summary of day by day results.

 

 

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Day of Week Results August 6 to October 15, 2018

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Dems Chance To Win Senate Fading

At ScottRasmussen.com, we project a range of possible outcomes for the House and Senate contests. That’s because we really won’t have a good sense of turnout until the very last minute. So, we give estimates based upon what might be a baseline number to a good night for each party.

From late last year until today, we have consistently shown that a good night for Democrats would give them a narrow majority in the Senate.

Now, however, the North Dakota Senate race moved from Tilts Republican to Leans Republican. As a result, even a good night for the Democrats would only get them to a 50-50 split in the Senate. And, since Vice President Mike Pence can cast the tie-breaking vote, that would leave the Republicans in control.

While things can certainly change in the final two-and-a-half weeks of the campaign, the Democrats are more likely to lose seats in the Senate than to gain control. There are five toss-up races (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada) and all but Nevada are in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. If the Republicans win one of those races, they are assured of maintaining the status quo in the Senate. If they win two or more of the toss-ups, they will expand their majority.

On top of that, we now rate Montana as just tilting to the Democrats. If the GOP wins that race plus all the toss-ups, they would end up with a net gain of five seats and a 56-44 majority in the Senate. That would be a very good night for the Republicans.

While the Democratic prospects are fading in the Senate, they are looking good in the House. Nancy Pelosi’s party needs to win just 8 of 22 Toss-Up races to win control.

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55% Rate Economy As Good or Excellent

The Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released every Thursday morning, continues to show evidence of a very strong economy.

  • Fifty-five percent (55%) rate the economy as good or excellent while 10% see it as poor.
  • Forty-seven percent (47%) believe firms in their area are hiring while 15% see layoffs.
  • Thirty-nine percent (39%) say the economy is getting better while 19% believe it is getting worse.
  • Forty-nine percent (49%) rate their own personal finances as good or excellent; 15% say poor.
  • Thirty-one percent (31%) believe their finances are getting better; 16% say worse.

In this politically polarized era, it should come as no surprise that there are significant differences of opinion about the economy along partisan lines. Republicans, by a 72% to 8% margin believe the economy is getting better rather than worse. Democrats, by a narrower 29% to 21% margin, believe it is getting worse. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Independent voters believe the economy is getting better while 20% say the opposite.

On questions about personal finances, the gaps are smaller but still significant. Forty-five percent (45%) of Republicans say their finances are getting better while 9% say worse. Democrats (23% better/ 20% worse) and Independents (27% better/20% worse) are more evenly divided.

This data comes from a survey of 1,101 U.S. Adults conducted by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Review the question wording and crosstab results.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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53% Believe Trump At Least As Ethical As Most Politicians

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters nationwide believe that President Trump is at least as ethical as most politicians. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey shows that total includes 23% who believe he is more ethical than most politicians.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans and 60% of Independent voters believe the president is as ethical as his peers. Eighty percent (80%) of Democrats take the opposite view and believe Trump is less ethical than most politicians (see question wording and crosstab results).

While most consider the president at least as ethical as a typical politician, just 31% believe he is a good role model for young Americans. Just 22% believe most Members of Congress are good role models for young Americans.

Despite what they see in politics today, 67% believe it is possible for an ethical person to be a successful politician.

This national survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted October 11-12, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

My new book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not, describes how I can be optimistic about the nation’s future despite being deeply pessimistic about our broken political system. Fortunately, the politicians aren’t nearly as important as they think they are. Just about all positive change in America begins far from the halls of power in Washington. The culture and technology lead our nation forward while politics and politicians lag behind.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

 

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58% Believe Racism Towards Persons of Color Remains A Large Problem

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters nationwide believe  racism towards people of color is a somewhat large or significant problem in America today. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that a smaller number (39%) believe such discrimination is a problem in their own area.

Forty-seven percent of respondents (47%) list African-Americans as the most likely group to be discriminated against in America, with Latinos (19%) a distant second. Data released earlier showed that 67% recognize that black men are likely to receive stricter prison sentences than white men for comparable crimes.

The survey shows there is also broad agreement about the definition of racism. Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters agree that pre-judging a person by the color of his skin is racist. Seventy-seven percent (77%) also agree it’s racist to make broad generalizations about a group of people based on skin color.

Race and ethnicity remain issues atop the headlines in America with regularity. Most recently, the controversy over Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test of her claim of Cherokee heritage dominated the news cycle. Rapper Kanye West’s visit with President Trump at the White House a few days earlier sparked several public comments about race and cross accusations of racism or racist intentions.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted August 23-24, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Perhaps not surprisingly, there is a massive racial divide on perceptions of racism. Ninety-one percent (91%) of black voters believe racism towards persons of color is a large or significant issue in the nation today. That view is shared by 76% of Hispanic voters and 51% of White voters.  (see question wording and crosstab results).

Seventy-three percent (73%) of black voters believe the historic policies of slavery or Jim Crow laws against play a large role in perpetuating racism against African-Americans today. Just 39% of white voters agree.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

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Crosstabs August 23-24, 2018

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Crosstabs August 28-29, 2018

Return to 23% Say White Americans are Racist
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Voters Keenly Aware of America’s Massive Prison Problems

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) says nearly 2.2 million adults were held in America’s prisons and jails at the end of 2016. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of American voters  are aware that the U.S. currently incarcerates more people than any other country in the world.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found broad awareness of the nation’s challenging prison problems. Eighty-three percent (83%) realize that the number of people sent to prison has risen sharply over the last 30 years. Two-thirds (67%) recognize that most people in prison in America have been convicted of non-violent crimes (see question wording and crosstab results).

Seventy-seven percent (77%) know that  “half of the people in federal prisons are there for violating drug crimes.”

Drug laws are in particular focus right now as Canada recently became the second country in the world to legalize marijuana nationally. As part of that move, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he’s looking into widespread pardons and prison releases for Canadians convicted of cannabis possession. A solid majority of American voters believe the popular drug should be legalized in the United States as well.

Data released earlier showed that 67% are aware that black men receive stricter sentences than white men convicted of the same crime.

This national survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted October 11-12, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

As I write in my new book, The Sun is Still Rising, the American people are the leading force for positive change in the nation. The culture leads and the politicians lag behind. It’s likely that the public’s understanding of the prison problem could form the basis for significant bipartisan and cross-cultural support for reform.

Prison reform was one item on the agenda during Kanye West’s highly-publicized visit with President Trump at the White House last week. Earlier this year, West’s wife Kim Kardashian helped work with President Trump to secure a commuted life sentence and release for 63-year-old grandmother Alice Marie Johnson.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Crosstabs October 16-17, 2018

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67% Recognize That Black Men Receive Stricter Prison Sentences Than White Men

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters are aware that, on average, black men receive stricter sentences than white men convicted of the same crime.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that younger voters are more aware of this reality than their elders. Eighty-three percent (83%) of black voters are aware, but only 59% of white voters acknowledge it.

Just 51% of Republicans recognize this key fact. It is understood by 83% of Democrats and 62% of Independents (see question wording and crosstab results).

Other data from the survey showed that voters understand that our nation currently incarcerates more people than any other country in the world.

This national survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted October 11-12, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

My new book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not, describes how the culture leads our nation forward while the politicians lag behind.  It’s the reason I’m optimistic about our future and believe our nation is moving to fuller equality. In fact, I am confident the culture is even powerful enough to fix our broken political system.

But my book also addresses the complexity of the culture we have inherited. Chapter 11 begins with the following passage:

In 1619, two contradictory strands of American history got their start in Jamestown, Virginia. One strand was noble, the other was shameful.

On July 30, the first representative government in the American colonies was established. The House of Burgesses met in the Jamestown Church “to establish one equal and uniform government over all Virginia.” Thus began America’s long and generally successful experiment with self-governance.

However, in a twist of fate worthy of a Greek tragedy, the first enslaved people arrived in the same town just a few weeks later. They were probably literate and Christian, having been abducted by Portuguese slave traders from what is now Angola. British pirates raided the Portuguese ship, took roughly two dozen captives as their prize, and sold them in Jamestown.

Thus began America’s great national sin, a sin that has haunted the nation for four centuries.

These two narratives—one positive and one negative—have competed and interacted to define America ever since. These dueling histories directly impact the way we perceive events today.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Majority Rejects Banning Even Extremely Hateful Statements

Data released last week showed that 64% of voters believe it is more dangerous to let government to define hate speech than to allow inappropriate hate speech that offends many people. That survey also found that 49% believed it was possible to come up with a definition of hate speech that is broadly accepted by everyone in society.

To test that, ScottRasmussen.com created a list of 17 statements that some might consider offensive. Many of them were extremely offensive. We asked 1,000 voters whether each of the statements qualified as hate speech that should be banned, was offensive but should not be banned, or were neither hate speech nor offensive.

None of the items were labeled as hate speech by more than 49% of voters (see full list and topline results).

Four had a plurality believing that they were hate speech that should be banned. Nine had a plurality that said the phrases were offensive but not hate speech, and four had a plurality that said they were neither hate speech nor offensive (see question wording and crosstab results).

A plurality between 43% and 49% believed the following four offensive statements constituted hate speech that should be banned:

  • “Mexican immigrants are all rapists, criminals, and drug dealers.”
  • “It’s ok to physically intimidate illegal immigrants.”
  • Black people are violent and should be watched carefully by the police.”
  • “It’s ok to attack a gay person if they try to hit on you.”

It is important to note that this commitment to free speech does not mean voters find the specific comments acceptable. Data released earlier, and confirmed by the survey, found that 76% believe freedom of speech includes the right to say things that others find offensive.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 16-17, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released earlier found that 82% of voters are at least somewhat concerned that freedom of speech allows false rumors and statements to be spread. That includes 36% who are Very Concerned. On this topic, Republicans are more concerned than Democrats or Independents.

However, despite that concern, 64% believe it is better to live with the rumors than limit freedom of speech.

Earlier surveys showed that freedom of speech is seen by voters as the most important right confirmed in the Bill of Rights. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe that freedom is more important than democracy.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

Posted in Poll Results

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The Culture is Powerful Enough to Fix Our Broken Political System

I’ve spent a lot of time over the past few years reminding everyone who would listen that the culture leads and politics lag behind. For me, that’s an encouraging perspective. It would be beyond depressing if our nation’s fate was determined by the agendas of our political leaders.

I’m with the 91% who believe that volunteering for community activities has a more positive impact than engagement in political campaigns. It’s exciting when Americans use their freedom to work together in community and help create a better world.

It’s also thrilling to see what new technologies are doing that will improve our health care systems, create more educational opportunities, and provide other societal benefits. Along with 71% of voters, I recognize that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have done more to shape our world than all eight U.S. presidents who have served since Apple and Microsoft was created.

Still, while I am thankful that our politicians are less important than they think they are, I am saddened by the toxic nature of our political dialogue. I understand why 81% prefer to avoid talking politics in social settings, but a part of me wishes it wasn’t that way.

Before last Friday night, however, I didn’t see any other way to deal with the realities before us. I had settled for believing that it was better to work around politics than to think we could do anything to make political dialogue less offensive. But on Friday, I had the privilege of listening to Arthur Brooks explain how the culture can lead us to a healthier political system.

Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, shocked many in the room by saying that civility and tolerance are not the antidote to political polarization. What, he wondered, would we think of his marriage if he and his wife were civil and tolerated each other?

The answer, according to Brooks, is that for our political system to work effectively, we need to love those who disagree with us. If we are attacked on social media, for example, Brooks said we should not fight back. Instead, we should offer a warm-hearted response. He encouraged everyone in attendance to seek out those who disagree with them and find a way to respond in love. Thank your opponents for taking the time to comment on your work. Thank them for their opinion. Show them you really care.

For those committed to unending political battles, such a response sounds weak. But it’s actually the most difficult response of all. From a pop culture perspective, Brooks echoed the ongoing tension of the Star Wars saga—the greatest challenge of all is refusing to give in to the dark side. Every time one of us responds in love rather than hate, our political system will be a little better off.

Nothing in that Friday night speech changed the basic reality that the culture and technology lead while politics and politicians lag behind. Instead, it helped me see that working around the political system is not enough. We must rely upon the culture to fix our broken political system. And the path forward is for one person after another to respond in love.

Posted in Scott's Columns

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Weekly Pulse: 60 Percent of Men, Half of All Women, Say the Economy is Strong

With only three weeks remaining until the mid-term election, a solid majority of Americans (55%) say the economy is excellent or good, while only 10 percent say it’s poor, according to the Job Creators Network/ ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse.

“The economy is very strong and most Americans know it,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “Republicans have been trying to make this election a referendum on the economy. Democrats have focusing on health care and some of the controversies surrounding President Trump. In three weeks, we’ll see which strategy was more effective.”

The Pulse also found that strong majorities of Americans view small business as a major part of the economy (see question wording and crosstab results).

“Lots of other research shows that Americans care about small business, and that they respect small business owners. What we’re finding in this data is that Americans also have a solid understanding of where small business fits into the economy,” said Elaine Parker, President of the Job Creators Network Foundation.

Sixty-eight percent of Americans know, for example, that small business creates two-thirds of all new jobs. Almost three quarters know that small business employs 60 million workers, which is nearly half the entire US workforce.

Americans seem to be paying close attention to how public policies affect small businesses as well. When asked about the impact of Obamacare, for example, 62 percent understand that the law has reduced the number of small firms that offer insurance to their workers.

“Healthcare is the top issue in this campaign, according to a lot of surveys, and almost two-thirds of Americans know that Obamacare has made it harder for small employers to offer coverage. That’s significant, and we’ll see in a few weeks how that motivates voters.”

The national survey of 1,119 Adults was conducted October 15-16, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Click here to view the entire report. For more information about Job Creators Network, please visit  www.jobcreatorsnetwork.com.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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Most Americans Not Into Boycott/Buycott Activism

Seventy percent (70%) of American voters have never participated in a boycott of a company over political issues, and 77% of voters say they haven’t gone out of their way to buy a company’s products because of political stands either.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 10-11, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

These results remained steady across almost all age, ethnic, and ideological groups. But Democrats (30%) were slightly less likely to say they’ve participated in a boycott than Republicans (36%). Similarly, only 27% of Republicans say they’ve bought a company’s products for political reasons, as opposed to just 22% of Democrats (see question wording and crosstab results).

Boycotts took center stage in the news cycle last month after Nike unveiled its controversial ad campaign featuring former NFL quarterback and activist Colin Kaepernick. Several conservative groups called for a boycott of Nike products in response to featuring Kaepernick, who began the practice of kneeling during the national anthem at NFL games. But Nike’s sales actually showed a boost in the weeks after the boycotts were first announced.

It is possible that Nike sales weren’t really harmed because the act of boycotting in general is so rare for such a large majority of Americans. Additionally, it is possible that the target audience for Nike products was not offended by the company’s support of Kaepernick.

Watching sporting events is slightly different than making a purchase. But the data from this survey challenges the notion that NFL viewership numbers are down because of the anthem issue as opposed to other problems in attracting and keeping viewers.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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Most Americans Still Disconnected to Facts about Guns and Gun Violence

A possible contributing factor to America’s enduring debate over gun rights may be the fact that a large portion of the country’s voters have little first-hand or accurate knowledge of the issue.

A new ScottRasmussen.com national survey shows that 46% of voters do not own a gun, nor does anyone in their family. The same survey shows that 42% of voters have never even fired a gun.

And for those with no family member who owns a gun, 79% say it’s unlikely they will ever own one in the future (see question wording and crosstab results).

Party identity plays a big role in these results. For example, 57% of Democrats responding to the survey say neither they nor anyone in their family owns a gun. An almost equal number of Republican voters (58%) so either they or their family members do own a gun.

This national survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted October 11-12, 2018 for ScottRasmussen.com by HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

In a starker example of the disconnect many voters have with the facts about guns, only 12% of respondents knew that suicide was the leading cause of gun-related deaths in America. That figure was unchanged from August.

The raw facts of gun ownership and gun violence seem to play a secondary role to attitudes about government power. A column I wrote last year explained that, at its core, the debate about gun control is not about guns. Everyone agrees on the need to reduce gun violence. Ultimately, therefore, the gun debate is about trust. Those who defend the Second Amendment trust everyday Americans far more than they trust the government and government officials. The reverse is true for those who want to ban or strictly regulate guns.

In another ScottRasmussen.com national survey conducted earlier this month, 76% of voters said gun laws were an issue that was very or at least somewhat important issue influencing their midterm election vote.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

Posted in Poll Results

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Americans Remain Resistant to Self-Driving Cars

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters say they would not feel safe riding in a self-driving car, according to a new national survey by ScottRasmussen.com. And of those 73% who say they don’t feel safe now, only 34% say they are very or even somewhat likely to feel safe in the next 5-10 years (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Resistance to self-driving cars may have increased slightly over the last few months. In August, 69% of respondents said they wouldn’t feel safe in such a vehicle.

Similarly, the number of voters who say they are very unlikely to have a self-driving car as their primary vehicle grew to 42% this month compared to 36% in August.

Still, a majority of voters (58%) believe most cars on the road will be self-driving within 20 years.

The automotive industry is racing to invest more in self-driving car technology. Earlier this month, Honda announced it will invest $750 million in General Motors’ autonomous car unit with an additional $2 billion coming over the next 12 years. Additionally, some market experts believe the total market value of the self-driving car industry and its supporting industries will top $7 trillion by 2050.

Much of the pushback on self-driving cars could be the result of some well-publicized accidents involving the vehicles over the past two years. The first death from an accident involving an entirely autonomous self-driving vehicle in the United States took place in March of this year. Another source of resistance may also stem from the fact that 64% of voters enjoy driving.

Driving is a way of life for a large majority of the country, with about 222 million licensed drivers and 263 million registered vehicles in the U.S. according to the latest data reported.

Two years ago, I described my first ride in a self-driving car : “The anticipation for me was a bit like a kid waiting for Christmas. But when I shared my enthusiasm with friends and colleagues, many thought I was crazy.” I remain an enthusiastic backer of the technology and expect my next car to be as autonomous as possible. It remains a mystery to me why so many people are reluctant to embrace this next step forward in automotive technology.

But, my job is to report public opinion, not my own perspective. The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). We release new polling data four to eight times each day. Sign up HERE to receive the latest numbers in our daily email update. You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

Posted in Poll Results

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If Dems Win House, 36% Expect They Will Impeach President Trump

If Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives, 36% of voters think they will impeach President Trump. That’s down slightly from 39% in late September. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 30% currently say impeachment is unlikely while 33% are not sure.

That total includes 46% of Democrats, 33% of Independents, and 29% of Republicans (see question wording and crosstabs). Nearly half (48%) of voters  under 35 expect a Democratic Congress to impeach the president.

The latest Generic Congressional Ballot polling suggests the Democrats are favored to win control, but it could be close. Currently, the ScottRasmussen.com race-by-race analysis shows 210 House races at least tilting to the Democrats. To win a majority, Nancy Pelosi’s team would need to win those seats and at least 8 of the 22 Toss-ups.

Sixteen percent (16%) of voters nationwide think that a Republican Congress will eventually impeach the president.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 14-15, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters say their midterm vote will be cast to support the president. An equal number say their vote will be cast to oppose.

Forty-five percent (45%) say the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process will be Very Important in their voting decision. That’s up from 38% immediately following the confirmation. Initially, Republicans were more focused on that issue, but now Democrats are equally engaged. Still, a large number of issues are deemed more important by voters. Health care, the economy, and national security are each seen as Very Important by two-thirds of voters.

Other polling shows that voters are evenly divided as to whether the Kavanaugh hearings will help Republicans or Democrats.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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46% Expect GOP to Win Senate, 32% Think Democrats Will Win

Forty-six percent (46%) of Registered Voters nationwide expect the Republicans to retain or expand their majority in the U.S. Senate in the midterm elections. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 32% disagree and think the Democrats will emerge victorious while 22% are not sure.

Expectations of a Senate GOP victory have been growing. They are also slightly higher among those likely to vote (see question wording and crosstabs).

As for the House of Representatives, 39% expect Republicans to keep their majority while 36% think the Democrats will win control. Among those most likely to vote, Democrats are slightly favored (42% to 39%). However, among a slightly expanded group of likely voters, Republicans are narrowly favored (41% to 39%). In all cases, the gap is well within the margin of error.

Our latest Generic Congressional Ballot data suggests a range of possible outcomes. The best for the GOP would be a very competitive race for control of the House. On the other hand, it’s also possible to see Democrats picking up 40 seats or so.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 14-15, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the sample Demographics). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Most pundits and analysts agree with the voters and expect the Republicans to retain control of the Senate. As I write this, the betting markets suggest Republicans have an 85% chance of victory. Looking at the ScottRasmussen.com race-by-race summary, it seems that the GOP is more likely to pick up a few seats rather than lose their majority. Democrats have five seats at high risk (North Dakota, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana) while the Republicans have just two (Arizona and Nevada).

As for the House of Representatives, most analysts and the betting markets expect the Democrats to win a majority. Some commentary lately has suggested that the Democratic gains may be somewhat more modest than earlier expected. Voters have remained fairly evenly divided on the question suggesting that this could be a very close race.

In years gone by, I found that asking voters who they thought would win generally worked pretty well. However, I was not polling during the 2016 presidential campaign and have no way of providing comparable data from that year.

One possible explanation for the gap between voters and pundits on the House races is simply that the pundits lost credibility in 2016. It is possible that many GOP voters are simply dismissing the analysts and polls this time around. It is also possible, of course, that the voters sense something that hasn’t reached the analysts yet. Perhaps the forecasts and expectations will draw closer by Election Day.

Currently, the ScottRasmussen.com race-by-race analysis shows 210 House races at least tilting to the Democrats. To win a majority, Nancy Pelosi’s team would need to win those seats and at least 8 of the 22 Toss-ups.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

 

 

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91% Support Red Flag Laws to Take Guns From Public Threats

A strong majority of Americans (91%) support for a legal process that protects individual rights but empowers police to take guns from people credibly reported to be public threats or mentally unstable. A new ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that only 9% disagree.

Several states have such Red Flag laws in place.  USA Today reports that the laws “generally allow law enforcement or family members to petition a judge for a ‘gun violence restraining order’ or “extreme risk protection order” to temporarily restrict a person’s access to firearms.” While an emergency order can be issued by a judge, “a full hearing must be scheduled quickly, offering the gun owner the ability to respond.”

While it was not explored in the survey, there is likely to be significant disagreement about the specific details of what constitutes an appropriate legal process that protects individual rights. There will also be substantial distrust between those who want to end or severely limit gun ownership and those who defend the Second Amendment. But the broad support for the concept indicates a strong public desire to find the right balance.

Support for such a legal process held up across every major age and ethnic group in the country. Republicans (88%) and Democrats (91%) also agree at an almost identical rate.

This national survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted October 11-12, 2018 for ScottRasmussen.com by HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Putting issues of mental health aside, most voters are less sure about the effects of gun restrictions overall. When asked whether modest restrictions on the ability to buy a gun would significantly reduce the number of gun-related deaths in America, only thirty-eight percent (38%) say they would. These results are almost identical to when voters were asked the same question in a similar ScottRasmussen.com survey in mid-August.

Only 29% of Republican respondents believe modest gun restrictions would significantly reduce gun related deaths while 50% of Democrats say they would.

But there is more partisan agreement in other areas.

An equally strong percentage of Republicans and Democrats (93%) agree on imposing modest restrictions on gun ownership like waiting periods and background checks.

There is also general bipartisan agreement when voters are asked about whether private citizens in general should lose gun rights. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans and 66% of Democrats oppose banning private ownership of guns.

Still, 71% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats agree that it is generally too easy to buy a gun in America today.

Gun laws are among the public’s top three priorities for the U.S. Supreme Court agenda.

ScottRasmussen.com releases new polling data four to eight times each day. Our mission is to enhance the public dialogue through data driven analysis. We also update the president’s job approval and the Generic Congressional Ballot regularly.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Support Stays Strong for Pot Legalization, but Not for Harder Drugs

A clear majority of voters (64%) believe marijuana should be legalized in America like cigarettes, while 36% disagree. That’s according to a new ScottRasmussen.com national survey.

But in the same poll, only 11% of respondents supported the idea of legalizing cocaine (see question wording and crosstabs).

This survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted for ScottRasmussen.com on October 7-8, 2018 by HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The poll showed attitudes unchanged from a similar poll conducted on August 20-21, 2018. A ScottRasmussen.com/HarrisX poll for the Deseret News found that 64% of Utah voters favor a medical marijuana initiative on the ballot this November.

Majority support for legalization holds up across almost every age and ethnic group in this latest poll. Men (66%) are slightly more likely to support marijuana legalization than women (62%), while the strongest support for legalization comes from younger voters aged 18-49.

Overall, 70% of respondents say marijuana legalization would either improve the problems related with drug abuse in America or not have any effect at all. 31% says those problems would get worse.

On this question, younger voters remain consistently more optimistic about the idea of legalization. 41% of respondents aged 18-34 say legalizing marijuana would make things better while just 26% say it would make things worse.

Again, those attitudes do not seem to extend to harder drugs. In the August poll, voters were asked about the effects of legalizing marijuana and cocaine. On that question, 36% of respondents aged 18-39 said doing that would make America’s drug problems worse and only 29% said it would make them better.

As the midterm elections draw close, voters in several states will have a chance to weigh in on ballot initiatives that call for some increased forms of marijuana legalization (see a full list of states and initiatives).

All of our data is presented to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). See all of our polling data releases.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Democrats More Likely Than Republicans to Live In Partisan Bubble

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republican voters say they have close friends who are Democrats, while just 52% of Democrats say they have close friends who are Republicans.

A new ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that this same pattern held up in questions about family relationships. Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans have Democrats as family members while only 51% of Democrats say they have Republican family members.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of independent voters say they have an even mix of Republicans and Democrats as close friends (see question wording and crosstabs).

The responses somewhat mirror growing concerns of tighter political bubbles in America, aided greatly by social media platforms like Facebook.

But as my latest column explains, Americans aren’t as intensely engaged in every political battle of the day. For example, another ScottRasmussen.com poll showed that 53% of Americans still do now know who Maine Senator Susan Collins is even after she cast the key swing vote in the confirmation process for Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

This leads is more common ground and a recognition of  the difference between America’s political and societal attitudes. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Republicans strongly or somewhat agree that American society is less polarized than its politics, 63% of Democrats strongly or somewhat agree with that outlook.

In social situations, 51% of voters say they get caught up in too many political discussions while 49% say not enough. Older voters are likely to say that politics comes up too often while younger voters say not enough.

Additionally, in social gatherings with those who have different political views, 81% try to avoid political discussions in social gatherings with family and friends who have different political views than their own. But among the minority who seek out such discussions, 66% say they turn out to be a more serious exchange of ideas rather than just arguing.

My latest book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Notmakes the case that fundamental changes in America will come from the culture while politics and politicians will lag behind.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 7-8, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

 

Posted in Poll Results

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Crosstabs October 7-8, 2018

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Crosstabs October 11-12, 2018

Return to Voters Keenly Aware of America’s Massive Prison Problems
Return to 67% Aware Black Men Receive Stricter Prison Sentences Than White Men

Return to Voters Keenly Aware of America’s Massive Prison Problems

Return to 67% Aware That Black Men Receive Stricter Prison Sentences Than White Men

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Crosstabs October 11-12, 2018

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NOTE: The following questions was asked only of those who do not have a gun owner in the family.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Crosstabs October 7-12, 2018

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Crosstabs October 7-12, 2018

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Crosstabs October 7-12, 2018

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Letting Government Define Hate Speech Seen As More Dangerous Than Hate Speech

Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe it is more dangerous to let government to define hate speech than to allow inappropriate hate speech that offends many people. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that just 36% disagree and believe hate speech itself is more dangerous.

Other data found that 76% believe freedom of speech includes the right to say things that others find offensive.

These views are broadly shared across generational, partisan, and ideological lines. The results are consistent with data released earlier showing that 68% believe a too powerful government is a bigger threat than one with too little power.

Despite the reluctance about government intervention, 49% believe it is possible to come up with a definition of hate speech that is broadly accepted by everyone in society. Most voters under 50 hold this view while most over 50 disagree (see question wording and crosstabs). ScottRasmussen.com will conduct additional research on how voters define hate speech in the near future.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 9-10, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

The survey also found that 82% of voters are at least somewhat concerned that freedom of speech allows false rumors and statements to be spread. That includes 36% who are Very Concerned. On this topic, Republicans are more concerned than Democrats or Independents.

However, despite that concern, 64% believe it is better to live with the rumors than limit freedom of speech.

Earlier surveys showed that freedom of speech is seen by voters as the most important right confirmed in the Bill of Rights. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters believe that freedom is more important than democracy.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

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7% Have Volunteered for a Political Campaign During Past Month

Just about everybody was talking about the confirmation hearings for now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh, but few voters are actually getting engaged in the political process. With the campaign season in full swing, a ScottRasmussen.com poll found that just 7% have volunteered for a political campaign in the past 30 days.

Twelve percent (12%) had posted a sign or bumper sticker, 10% donated money to a campaign, and 7% attended a campaign rally (see question wording and crosstabs). No matter how you define it, few people actively engage in the political process.

They are far more likely to engage in community activities such as helping the poor (24%), volunteering for a church or religious project (23%), or volunteering at a school event.

One reason for this may be that American society is not as polarized as American politics.

Additionally, 91% believe that volunteering for community activities has a more positive impact than engagement in political campaigns. Ninety-four percent (94%) believe giving to charity is a better use of money than giving to a political campaign.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters recognize that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact than the combined legacies of the last eight presidents.

This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted on October 10-11, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

This data echoes results from an earlier survey showing that voters would rather give blood than engage in a political campaign. That earlier survey measured participation in various activities over the preceding year rather than just 30 days.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

You can also follow our work on Twitter and Facebook.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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76% Say Free Speech Includes Right to Offend Others

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters believe freedom of speech is Very Important. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 76% believe that includes the right to say things that others find offensive.

The data also revealed a clear distinction between speech that can be restricted on private property and on government property.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of voters believe that privately owned stores and malls have the right to ban profanity and other offensive language on their property. Sixty-eight percent (68%) believe they have the right to ban or restrict political commentary on their land.

However, just 68% believe government officials have the right to ban profanity on government property–seventeen percentage points lower than the private property number. And, 60% say that government officials do NOT have have the right to ban political commentary and discussion on government property (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 9-10, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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Is Mitch McConnell Really The Least Popular Senator? Not Any More

USA Today headline reported that Bernie Sanders was the nation’s most popular Senator and Mitch McConnell was the least popular. It was based on an extensive series of survey interviews conducted by Morning Consult. Each Senator was rated based upon popularity with the voters in their home state.

I do not doubt the underlying numbers provided by Morning Consult. However, the story was outdated before it was published and does not present an accurate assessment of where things stand today.  That’s because the Morning Consult surveys were conducted between July 1 and September 25. ScottRasmussen.com national polling found McConnell was unpopular during that time frame as well.

However, following the confirmation battle over now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh, McConnell’s favorability ratings soared. Back in August, just 36% of GOP voters had a favorable opinion of him and slightly more (37%) had an unfavorable view. He is now viewed favorably by 55% of Republican voters and unfavorably by 18%. Given the partisan demographics of Kentucky, McConnell’s numbers have undoubtedly surged there as well.

Among all voters, McConnell is now viewed favorably by 37%. That’s up from 20% in August and 30% in September. Far from being the least popular Senator, McConnell is now the most popular of the nation’s Congressional leaders.

The lesson here is that timing matters. Mitch McConnell appears to have been the nation’s most unpopular Senator over the summer. But, it’s not the case today.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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Crosstabs October 10-11, 2018

Return to Most Americans Not Into Boycott/Buy-cott Activism
Return to 7% Volunteered for Political Campaigns