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The Wall Street Journal's Best of the Web column on Friday suggested that President Trump "has what might be called a likability gap and his party needs to give voters better answers on health care."As an example of what those better answers might look like, James Freeman's column highlighted our recent data showing that voters overwhelmingly favor letting each worker choose how much health insurance they are willing to pay for. Not only that, two-thirds of workers (65%) would opt for less-expensive insurance and more take home pay.We released some additional data this weekend showing voters are evenly divided

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A majority of Americans say higher taxes on businesses would be bad for the economy and lead to lower investment in future economic growth, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “Americans understand that higher taxes on businesses will hurt the economy and affect employment,” said Job Creators Network Foundation President Elaine Parker. “That’s an important finding, and it suggests that selling such a plan to the American people won’t be easy for the members of the incoming House majority who campaigned on that promise.” 70 percent of Americans think businesses would be likelier to

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A solid majority of Americans headed to the polls Tuesday believing that the economy was excellent or good, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “The economy was one of the top three issues for voters leading up to the election, and most Americans believe the economy is very strong,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen.” According to the survey, conducted on November 5th and 6th, 40 percent of Americans believe the economy is getting better. Thirty-three percent say it’s about the same, while only 20 percent believe things are getting worse. The survey finds that 49



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IDDateTitleExcerpt
IDDateTitleExcerpt
973611-17-2018Wall Street Journal Best of the Web Features ScottRasmussen.com Data
The Wall Street Journal's Best of the Web column on Friday suggested that President Trump "has what might be called a likability gap and his party needs to give voters better answers on health care."As an example of what those better answers might look like, James Freeman's column highlighted our recent data showing that voters overwhelmingly favor letting each worker choose how much health insurance they are willing to pay for. Not only that, two-thirds of workers (65%) would opt for less-expensive insurance and more take home pay.We released some additional data this weekend showing voters are evenly divided

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971711-15-2018Majority Says Higher Business Taxes Would Reduce Growth and Hurt Economy
A majority of Americans say higher taxes on businesses would be bad for the economy and lead to lower investment in future economic growth, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “Americans understand that higher taxes on businesses will hurt the economy and affect employment,” said Job Creators Network Foundation President Elaine Parker. “That’s an important finding, and it suggests that selling such a plan to the American people won’t be easy for the members of the incoming House majority who campaigned on that promise.” 70 percent of Americans think businesses would be likelier to

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965511-08-2018Weekly Pulse: 55 Percent Say Economy is Strong
A solid majority of Americans headed to the polls Tuesday believing that the economy was excellent or good, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “The economy was one of the top three issues for voters leading up to the election, and most Americans believe the economy is very strong,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen.” According to the survey, conducted on November 5th and 6th, 40 percent of Americans believe the economy is getting better. Thirty-three percent say it’s about the same, while only 20 percent believe things are getting worse. The survey finds that 49

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963711-07-2018The Morning After
First impressions are that the 2018 midterm elections were generally in line with what pollsters and analysts expected. Democrats won the House, but it wasn't an enormous wave like the Tea Party victories in 2010. Republicans padded the Senate majority.We didn't poll individual House races, but the ScottRasmussen.com Generic Ballot consistently showed results consistent with the modest Democratic majority produced on Election Day. We also worked with HarrisX to survey six key Senate races for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation. They provided a reliable guide to Election Day by looking at each race over three time

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961811-06-2018It's Finally Here
For millions of political junkies, today's the big day. For millions of other Americans it's a day to celebrate the end of civic pollution known as campaign ads.  And, as we noted earlier, for 37% of voters, it's the most important election of their lifetime.Despite all the noise and hype, the conventional wisdom heading into election day is pretty much the same as it's been all year. Republicans are more likely to gain seats than lose in the Senate. Democrats are likely to win the House, though the size of their likely majority is in doubt.In the midst of

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959211-04-2018On Air with Sean Trende and Jesse Watters
Last night, Sean Trende and I joined Jesse Watters on Fox News to discuss Midterm expectations. Sean may be the most level-headed analyst in the nation today and it's always a pleasure to chat with him. And, it's also comforting when our assessment of the situation is pretty much the same.During the segment, I gave a concise overview of five toss-up Senate races (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri,  and Nevada). Bottom line is that all are so close that I wouldn't be shocked to see either candidate win any particular race. However, in the aggregate, the expectation remains that the GOP will

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957511-03-2018Senate Polls Bring Good News for McSally (R-AZ) and Tester (D-MT)
ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX have been working with the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation to track six Senate races in Election 2018: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada.For each race, results are presented with three different turnout models. In addition to a base projection, we model a High Republican turnout and a High Democratic turnout. The data has been released along three different time frames--a 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day rolling average. We do this because it's the turnout that will decide the final outcome of the midterm elections.The seven-day numbers have the most solid sample and lowest

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956411-02-2018Dems Hold Steady Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot
For the three days ending November 1, Democrats enjoy a 49% to 43% lead on the Generic Ballot. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey of 1,913 Likely Voters found that 3% will vote for a third party candidate while 5% remain undecided (see crosstab results).These numbers bounced around a bit in recent weeks but have stabilized in recent days. The three-day rolling average results showed Democrats with a 7-point advantage on the prior two releases.A six or seven point popular vote victory on Tuesday would likely give the Democrats narrow control of Congress. However, as I have noted, a shift

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955611-01-2018Weekly Pulse: 53 Percent Say Economy is Strong Heading into Midterm Election
A solid majority of Americans see the economy as excellent or good, and only 13 percent believe conditions are poor just days before the most hotly contested midterm election in decades, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “What we’re seeing in the data confirms everything we’ve heard from small business owners and employees all over the country,” said Elaine Parker, President of the JCN Foundation. “Confidence remains very high. The question is whether, and how, that sentiment will affect the way Americans vote next week.” The Pulse found that 38 percent of Americans think

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954210-30-2018Midterm Momentum?
At ScottRasmussen.com, we track the Generic Congressional Ballot on a daily basis and have been reporting the results weekly. On Saturday, our weekly data showed that the Republicans had been gaining ground. The race appeared to be tightening as the migrant caravan dominated the news. However, we also noted that Friday's results were the best of the week for Democrats and speculated that news about the mail bombings may have had an impact.With polling data, it's often difficult to tell whether a single day's results are a blip, the start of a trend, or merely statistical noise. So, I've been checking the

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946710-25-2018Americans Confused on Medicare for All
Thirty-five percent of Americans never heard of Medicare for All, and very few Americans appear willing to pay for the enormous cost, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today.“There is deep confusion about one of the biggest political catchphrases of this cycle,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “It sounds good on the campaign trail partly because it means very different things to different people.”The plan proposed by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)  would require all Americans to give up their private coverage and get their health insurance through the Medicare program. However, only 15 percent of Americans believe that's

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947010-24-2018Voters Like Legal Immigration, but 79% Say Illegal Immigration Bad
Perhaps the most important fact required to understand the politics of immigration is to recognize that voters see a huge difference between legal and illegal immigration.Seventy-one percent (71%) believe legal immigration is good for the nation. At the same time, however, 79% believe illegal immigration is bad. A majority or plurality of just about every demographic group sees this important distinction between legal and illegal immigration. In other words, voters recognize our heritage both as a nation of immigrants and a nation of law.That resistance to illegal immigration leads 60% favor sending U.S. military troops to the southern border

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945710-24-2018The Lesser of Two Evil Midterm Elections
One often overlooked fact from 2016 is that 10% of all voters cast their ballot for candidate Trump despite believing he was unqualified to serve as president. Those voters selected the president because he was the lesser of two evils.It is possible, perhaps likely, that many undecided midterm voters are now trying to decide which team is the lesser of two evils. With that in mind, it's worth noting that only 35% of voters believe the country would be better off today with Hillary Clinton as president. That figure includes just 25% of Independent voters.Overall,

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943210-22-2018GOP to Gain 2 Senate Seats According to Betting Markets
As of 11:00 a.m. eastern on October 22, the betting markets at PredictIt.org were projecting a 2 seat Republican pick-up in the Senate. Democrats Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Claire McCaskill (MO) have less than 50-50 odds of keeping their job. No other incumbent is given less than a 50-50 chance of winning.Still, there's plenty of room for change--in either direction. The most vulnerable Republican, Dean Heller (NV), is considered a 50-50 shot. Two other Democrats, Bill Nelson (FL) and Joe Donnelly (IN), are seen as having just slightly better than even money odds. That suggests a range of potential outcomes

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940610-19-2018Dems Chance To Win Senate Fading
At ScottRasmussen.com, we project a range of possible outcomes for the House and Senate contests. That's because we really won't have a good sense of turnout until the very last minute. So, we give estimates based upon what might be a baseline number to a good night for each party.From late last year until today, we have consistently shown that a good night for Democrats would give them a narrow majority in the Senate.Now, however, the North Dakota Senate race moved from Tilts Republican to Leans Republican. As a result, even a good night for the Democrats

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937310-18-2018Weekly Pulse: 60 Percent of Men, Half of All Women, Say the Economy is Strong
With only three weeks remaining until the mid-term election, a solid majority of Americans (55%) say the economy is excellent or good, while only 10 percent say it’s poor, according to the Job Creators Network/ ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse. “The economy is very strong and most Americans know it,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “Republicans have been trying to make this election a referendum on the economy. Democrats have focusing on health care and some of the controversies surrounding President Trump. In three weeks, we’ll see which strategy was more effective.” The Pulse also found that strong majorities of Americans view small

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930810-11-2018Is Mitch McConnell Really The Least Popular Senator? Not Any More
A USA Today headline reported that Bernie Sanders was the nation's most popular Senator and Mitch McConnell was the least popular. It was based on an extensive series of survey interviews conducted by Morning Consult. Each Senator was rated based upon popularity with the voters in their home state.I do not doubt the underlying numbers provided by Morning Consult. However, the story was outdated before it was published and does not present an accurate assessment of where things stand today.  That's because the Morning Consult surveys were conducted between July 1 and September 25. ScottRasmussen.com national polling found McConnell was unpopular

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929010-11-2018Weekly Pulse: 59% Unwilling to Give Up Doctor, Current Coverage for Federal Plan
As candidates for Congress debate health insurance leading up to the mid-term election, most Americans are unwilling to trade in their doctors or current policies in exchange for a new mandatory federal program, according to the JCN/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released this morning. “A strong majority of Americans would reject a massive new entitlement if it means losing their doctors or current benefits,” said JCN Foundation President Elaine Parker. “That’s significant, because a lot of candidates are campaigning on Medicare for All.” Three quarters of Americans believe it is “very important” for people to have quality health

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928610-11-201864% Support Medical Marijuana Initiative in Utah
A new Deseret News poll shows 64 percent of likely Utah voters support Proposition 2, the state's medical marijuana legalization ballot initiative.Thirty-three percent of respondents to the poll, conducted on behalf of the newspaper by ScottRasmussen.com/HarrisX, said they oppose Proposition 2.The support for Proposition 2 was strikingly consistent across several groups in the new Deseret News poll.

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926910-08-201838% of Women Believe Country on the Right Track
Data released over the weekend suggests that many issues are more important to voters than the Kavanaugh confirmation process. However, that process reinforced and highlighted other public divides by emphasizing the team sport nature of politics in Washington.The latest evidence of this comes from data showing that 44% of voters nationwide believe the United States is on the Right Track. There is a significant gender gap on the question: 50% of men believe the country is on the right track. Just 38% of women agree. This gap is similar to the gender

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923510-06-2018Final Kavanaugh Tracking Data Shows Public Evenly Divided
ScottRasmussen.com has been monitoring the confirmation process of Judge Brett Kavanaugh since mid-August. Daily tracking over the past few weeks has confirmed that public opinion has stabilized (see daily topline results). There is a clear partisan divide among those following the story and overall opinions are split right down the middle.Our final night of tracking showed that, among those following the story, 51% had a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh (see single night crosstab results). That data was collected after release of the FBI report but before Senator Susan Collins announced her support for Kavanaugh.Over the past week, we interested

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922110-04-201880% Says Schools are Failing to Teach Students How to Manage their Personal Finances 
Overwhelming majorities of Americans think public schools are failing to teach kids basic economics or how to manage their personal finances, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today.“These results should be an alarm bell for educators and policymakers,” said Job Creators Network Foundation President Elaine Parker. “The primary purpose of the public school system is to get kids ready for the responsibilities of adulthood and entering the workforce, and vast majorities of Americans think they’re doing a lousy job of it.”According to the data, only 20 percent of Americans think the public schools are doing a generally

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922410-04-2018Monthly Monitor: 79 Percent of Unemployed Are Confident in Finding a Job
Nearly 80 percent of Americans looking for work say it’s very likely or somewhat likely that they will find a job, according to the first Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Monthly Monitor. “This monthly survey will give us an unprecedented look at how job seekers and part-time workers view the economy,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “Our initial data shows a high level of confidence consistent with other indications of a strong economy.” Also, according to the survey, only 27 percent of part-time workers are searching for a full-time job. According to Rasmussen, that’s an indication that most part-time employees

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922210-03-2018Opinions About Kavanaugh Aren't Changing
The latest daily polling by ScottRasmussen.com confirms the growing sense that voters are now entrenched in their views about Judge Brett Kavanaugh and the Supreme Court confirmation process. There is a clear partisan divide among those following the story and overall opinions are split right down the middle.Last night's data also confirmed our initial finding that just over half of all voters believe that both Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Judge Kavanaugh could be telling the truth as they know it and remember it. We'll update those numbers further tomorrow after collecting additional data tonight.Single night data collected Tuesday

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921310-02-2018Support for Kavanaugh Nomination Stable and Polarized
Daily polling on Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation process shows that opinions have settled into a stable and partisan pattern.His personal ratings and support for his confirmation slipped a bit after Dr. Christine Blasey Ford first went public with her allegations about Judge Brett Kavanaugh. They rebounded a bit until a second woman came forward with allegations. Since then, however, they have remained generally stable over 8 full days of polling.Among those following the story, between 45% and 47% have favored his confirmation on every day but one (see tracking results from August 15 to today).His personal approval ratings have generally been between 47%

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918710-01-2018Nation Remains Divided on Kavanaugh
In three days of polling since Judge Brett Kavanaugh's appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the Supreme Court nominee's ratings have improved a bit from his pre-hearing totals. But public opinion remains deeply divided along partisan lines. And, while the partisan gap remains much larger than the gender gap, the gender gap is growing.ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX interviewed 3,826 Registered Voters after the hearings. Among those voters, 3,362 were following the story at least a bit. Forty-eight percent (48%) of them have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh (see question wording and crosstab results). In the three prior prior to

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918009-30-2018Kavanaugh Bounce Continues As Gender Gap Widens
Judge Brett Kavanaugh's appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee has helped him in the court of public opinion. The gains are the result of a growing gender gap. His numbers are little changed among women but improved among men.Among those following the story, the Judge's approval ratings had fallen to 44% by the morning of the hearing. And, at that time, the number with a Very Unfavorable opinion of him (28%) was larger than the number with a Very Favorable opinion (20%). Just 45% of those following the story wanted him confirmed (see day-by-day tracking results).Polling conducted immediately after

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917309-29-2018On Kavanaugh, Partisan Gap Is Much Wider Than Gender Gap
A Politico article highlights the fact that Republican women in Congress generally support Brett Kavanaugh. The headline defines this as "party loyalty trumps #MeToo."That phenomenon is not unique to Congress. It exists among the nation's voters as well.Since mid-August, ScottRasmussen.com has conducted more than 10,000 survey interviews on the Kavanaugh confirmation process. We have conducted surveys of those who were following news about Kavanaugh and among the larger population of all registered voters.  The daily results show modest fluctuations over the past few weeks.But, in all cases, the partisan gap is bigger than the gender gap.For example, from

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917109-28-2018Among Those Following the Story, 51% Have Favorable Opinion of Kavanaugh
ScottRasmussen.com has been tracking Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation process on a daily basis and yesterday was the judge's best day in a week.Among those following the story, 51% now have a favorable opinion of him. That's up a full seven-points from immediately before the hearing (see question wording and daily results).  It's also his highest total in a week.The number with a Very Favorable opinion of Kavanaugh jumped from 20% before the hearing to 28% today.The latest data was collected from polling on Thursday night following the hearing and Friday morning. The pre-hearing numbers were collected Wednesday night until just

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915609-27-2018Three Quarters of Americans Want Free Markets and Individual Freedom
Sixty-three percent of Democrats, 84 percent of Republicans, and 73 percent of Independents prefer free markets and individual liberty, while only 27 percent of all Americans want a larger role for the federal government, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today.“The question for both parties is whether they are advancing policies that Americans seem to want, according to this data,” said Job Creators Network Foundation President Elaine Parker. “On the Republican side, they should worry that only 59 percent of Americans identify them with individual freedom and free markets. On the Democratic side, they should worry even

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915009-26-2018Kavanugh Tracking: It's All About Thursday
Brett Kavanaugh's numbers are stable but troubled on the eve of a critical Judiciary Committee meeting scheduled for Thursday morning. Among those following the story, 48% have a favorable opinion of him and 52% an unfavorable view.His numbers fell sharply earlier this week following accusations from a second woman, but partially rebounded after his television appearance on Monday night. One potentially troubling detail for the nominee is that the number with a Very Unfavorable view has increased in four consecutive nights of polling, going from 18% last Friday to 28% today (see all questions and trends).Currently 47% of those

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914409-25-2018Mixed Reviews for Kavanaugh Following TV Interview
Prior to his nationally televised interview last night, daily tracking showed that news of a second allegation against Brett Kavanaugh pushed his ratings to new lows. Among those following the story at least a bit, just 45% had a favorable opinion of the nominee.  His ratings among all voters are even lower.However, polling conducted on Monday night and Tuesday morning found that his ratings had bounced back a bit from their lows. Now, among those following the story at least a little, 50% have a favorable opinion of the Judge. That's in the middle of the range we have

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913309-24-2018Kavanaugh Ratings Fall Following Second Accusation
Despite some minor ups and downs, public opinion about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh had remained fairly steady throughout the confirmation process. Neither the confirmation hearings nor the accusations from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford had a significant impact on public opinion.However, news of a second allegation against the Judge pushed his ratings to new lows. As of Monday, just 46% of those following the story want their Senator to vote for the confirmation of Kavanaugh. That's down from 51% on Friday (see all questions and trends).Polling conducted Sunday night and Monday morning found that, among those following the

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911009-21-2018Growing Interest In The Kavanaugh Confirmation Process
In a ScottRasmussen.com poll conducted Thursday night and Friday morning, 34% of voters nationwide say they are Very Closely following news about Brett Kavanaugh's Confirmation process. That's up from 29% the day before and 27% two days earlier (see full set of questions and trends).However, nothing else has really changed. Among those following the story at least a bit, 53% have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh, 51% want to see him confirmed, and 81% think it is at least Somewhat Likely to be confirmed.Overall, 25% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Judge while 18% have a Very Unfavorable

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910309-21-2018In Reviewing Survey Data, Details Matter
In recent days, we've posted a fair number of updates about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. We've noted that among those following news of his confirmation process, roughly 50% have a favorable opinion of him and 50% an unfavorable view.Today, we released a poll measuring the favorability of all Supreme Court Justices plus Kavanaugh. In this survey, just 35% have a favorable view of the Judge and 33% an unfavorable view. The rest don't know enough to form an opinion.For those skeptical about polls, the apparent discrepancy between 50% favorable in one poll and 35% raises obvious questions.The

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908909-20-2018Weekly Pulse: 72 Percent of Americans Think Cutting Taxes, Spending and Regs are Best for the Economy
Nearly three-quarters of Americans think cutting taxes, spending and regulations is the best general approach for boosting the economy, while only 27 percent think the best way is to start new programs, increase spending, or impose more regulations on businesses, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “The data suggests that Republicans have a pretty substantial advantage when it comes economic policy. At the moment, that isn’t reflected in the political polls,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “That suggests that many Americans are not focused on the economy, or that many simply don’t associate those

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908609-19-2018Generic Ballot Unchanged Since Accusations Against Kavanaugh: D+7
Just wanted to pass on a tidbit confirming that public opinion has shifted little since Dr. Christine Blasey Ford went public with accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.Just prior to Ford's interview with the Washington Post, our Generic Congressional Ballot polling showed the Democrats with an 8-point advantage among the most likely voters (49% to 41%). We will release another full week update on Saturday.In the meantime, I just looked at the results from the first three polling days of the week. The first day's survey was launched the night of Dr. Ford's interview and the third day finished up

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907509-18-2018Enhancing The Public Dialogue With A Thoughtful Response
Our mission at ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue with data driven analysis. Today, I'm happy to share an anecdote about one healthy public conversation.A few weeks ago, my weekly syndicated column appeared in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Building upon our polling data, I noted "the inability of the politically obsessed to understand the majority of Americans." I also noted that if often seems "as if the politically engaged don’t even want to understand the rest of the country."I was pleasantly surprised to see a rebuttal by a Minnetonka resident named Maria Klein. She found my data interesting

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904809-17-2018Happy Constitution Day!
On this date in 1787, 39 men signed the U.S. Constitution.They would undoubtedly be surprised at how well their efforts worked out. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters today believe the United States is a great nation. But, at the same time, most Americans also believe the nation has a lot of work to do before we can live up to the founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Fortunately, most expect us to keep making progress.One significant reason for such confidence is the strong foundation of the U.S. Constitution. Seventy percent (70%) of voters are happy with the system of

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904009-16-2018Is Texas Ready to Elect a Democratic Senator?
This morning, I had a nice chat with Pete Hegseth on Fox and Friends about a number of key Senate races.First up was the question that has all Republicans worried--Could Ted Cruz really lose to Beto O'Rourke? He's certainly in a tougher race than anybody ever expected. And, an upset is not out of the question. But the political gravity of Texas will probably secure Cruz another term in the Senate. At ScottRasmussen.com we rate this race as Likely Republican.We also discussed 3 of the 6 toss-up races. In Indiana and Missouri, Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly and Claire

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900509-13-2018Job Creators Network and Pollster Scott Rasmussen Launch Weekly Tracking Survey on the Economy
I'm excited to announce a new, long-range project being launched today in partnership with The Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF). The foundation serves as an educational resource for small businesses and employees. This partnership will build upon and strengthen the commitment of ScottRasmussen.com to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).Every week we will ask 1,000 adults to answer five standard questions on the economy and a handful of additional questions aimed at current issues, developing stories, and trending topics. Our data will have implications for policymakers, investors, journalists, academics, market

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900109-12-2018Voters More Likely to Give Blood Than Engage in Politics
Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters have given blood over the past year while just 6% have volunteered for a political campaign. In fact, they are far more willing to give of their time to a wide variety of community activities than to even display a political bumper sticker or yard sign.That's because they overwhelmingly believe that volunteering for community activities is the best way to have a positive impact. Ninety-four percent(94%) also believe that giving to charity is a better use of money than giving to a political campaign.This and other data strongly suggests that voters have a healthy perspective

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897209-09-2018Most folks want less noise, more substance, from lawmakers
A nice editorial in the Oklahoman this morning builds upon research from ScottRasmussen.com.The Editorial Board wrote that the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings "gave the partisans from both major parties plenty of ammo for their constant attacks on each other, but it most likely did little to engage or persuade Americans who have grown weary of politics and politicians."Citing my recent column, they noted that most voters have mixed views and don't see the midterms as the ultimate fight between good and evil. In their words, "these polls indicate the high-pitched, ideologically driven battles so prevalent today are less important

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892009-05-2018The Most Important Freedoms
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters consider Freedom of Speech "Absolutely Essential." Sixty-eight percent (68%) say the same about Freedom of Religion. When you add in those who consider these rights "Very Important," it turns out that nine-out-of-ten Americans agree on their importance. That's an amazing level of agreement in this polarized political climate.The freedom to be ourselves is especially important when 64% believe that Freedom is more important than democracy  

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889409-04-2018Betting Markets Suggest GOP Might Gain 3 Senate Seats
The betting markets at PredictIt.org currently suggest that Republicans might pick up a net 3 seats in the U.S. Senate.The markets show Republicans with a better than 50% chance of picking-up seats in Missouri (McCaskill), Florida (Nelson), North Dakota (Heitkamp), and Indiana (Donnelly).Only in Nevada (Heller) are Democrats given a better than 50-50 shot of flipping a seat.The Republicans are also defending open seats in Arizona and Tennessee. As of 10:00 a.m. Eastern on September 4, the GOP was favored to hang on to both (although the Arizona race is just barely better than even for Republicans).Obviously, the betting markets

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882909-01-2018Voters Desire for Outsider with Experience
On a fun segment for Hill.TV's What's America Thinking,  a Monmouth University Poll was highlighted showing that people wanted an outsider but also someone with experience. When asked if voters were being contradictory, my response was essentially that it's more about nuance than contradiction.  "They want somebody who has that outsider's attitude, who remembers the folks back home, who remembers what it was like to be an outsider," he continued. "But they also want somebody who can hit the ground running and get something done because they've seen too many people get elected without experience who do nothing."While some

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881208-30-2018Keeping Politics in Perspective
Americans overwhelmingly recognize that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on our world than presidents of the United States. Earlier, we released data showing that most believe freedom is more important than Democracy. The two themes are completely intertwined. The more freedom people have, the less significant politics becomes. But, when we have less freedom, politics becomes all consuming. There is obviously a need for politics and government, but we should keep it in perspective. Most positive change starts outside the formal processes of our government.In reality, of course, there is not a clear

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866908-29-2018Scott Rasmussen and HarrisX Launch Daily Tracking Poll
I'm thrilled to announce a partnership with HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys, to launch the ScottRasmusen.com Daily Tracking Poll (see the HarrisX release).We've been interviewing 1,000 Registered Voters five nights a week since August 6 and are beginning to release the data today. My first column based on the data looks at a segment of the population most politically obsessed people can't begin to comprehend: the 26% of voters who don't think things would be much different if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election.Each day, we'll release 4 to 8 updates measuring both

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866408-29-201826% Believe Little Would Be Different If Clinton Was President
Mark Penn recently observed that "You don’t need polls to see the America you live in." That's not their purpose. Instead, "you need polls to understand the part of America you don’t know, don’t see, and don’t understand."In that spirit, my first column based upon data from the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll looks at a segment of the population that the politically obsessed can't begin to understand. Twenty-six percent (26%) of Registered Voters nationwide don't believe things would all that different in the country today if Hillary Clinton was president.Most Americans reject the political world view of the

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866708-29-2018Enhancing the Public Dialogue
The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion.While the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll measures public opinion about many political topics, the focus of our research and analysis is on underlying public attitudes rather than the partisan political obsessions of official Washington. This is especially important at a time when many words used in the political dialogue have different meanings and implications among the general public.Our overall approach is based upon the reality that governing society is not the responsibility of government alone. Every organization and relationship

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866808-29-2018Conflicted Supporters and Other Dimensions of The Trump Spectrum
Each day in the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll, we ask 1,000 Registered Voters how they rate President Trump's performance in office. In addition to the Job Approval rating, we also ask a follow-up question asking if things would be better worse or pretty much the same if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election. Perhaps the most stunning piece of data for many political activists is that 26% of voters don't think things would be all that different with Clinton in the White House today (see my column on the topic).Another interesting finding comes from looking at that

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866608-29-2018The ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll
On August 6, in partnership with HarrisX, ScottRasmussen.com began surveying 1,000 Registered Voters five nights a week. Today, we are pleased to release our first batch of data from that survey project.Today's data includes our first Generic Congressional Ballot release (showing Democrats with a 6-point edge), the President's Job Approval (47%), and Trust in Government (18% Trust the Federal Government most of the time). We will be updating these results weekly during our launch phase but will move to a daily release schedule in mid-September.We have also released data showing that  38% Believe Congress Too Conservative (and 34%

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866508-29-2018Is Phone Polling Dead?
There is a vigorous debate as to whether phone polling is dead or just dying. Some of it is fueled by the erroneous notion that the pollsters total missed the mark in the 2016 election. Actually, the national poll results were generally accurate in forecasting a modest popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton. While the polling was decent, the analysis wasn't.Still, there are legitimate questions about the viability of phone polling in a time when fewer than half the nation's households have a landline telephone. And, calling cell phones isn't necessarily the answer. Hardly anybody answers their cell phones unless

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862808-20-201837 of 40 Competitive House Races Currently Held By GOP
This morning, I spoke with Jackie Ibanez about what to look for in the midterms (see video). Eight Republican held seats in the House are currently projected to flip. That means Democrats need to win 15 out of 40 competitive races to gain majority control. Top issues will be economy, health care, and immigration. But, to get a sense of how tough the terrain is, 37 of the 40 competitive races are currently held by Republicans. The GOP is on defense and simply hoping to minimize their losses.

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850806-22-2018Markets Say Democrats Have 24% Chance of Winning Senate
As of 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 22, Predictit.org shows that the Democrats have a 24% chance of winning the U.S. Senate in November. The odds are determined by people placing bets for or against various election scenarios.Looking at the race-by-race assessment, the betting market sees the Republicans as likely to lose Senate seats in both Arizona and Nevada. They GOP is given just a 37% chance in Arizona's open seat race and a 30% shot in Nevada where Dean Heller is the only Republican incumbent running in a state won by Hillary Clinton.Three Democratic Senators are given less

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817804-21-2018The Challenges of Populism
The United States was founded on noble ideals of freedom, self-governance, and equality. As a nation, of course, we've never fully lived up to those ideals. But striving for them has made us a better nation.One of the core practical challenges in living up to those ideals is the question of what self-governance looks like in practice. What does consent of the governed mean in day-to-day life? If the people are supposed to be in charge, how do we insure that government officials respect their wishes?In a thoughtful piece, Brookings' scholar William Galston describes four different concepts that get wrapped

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797403-21-2018Vermont Now Only State Never Represented by a Woman in Congress
With the announcement that Cindy Hyde-Smith will be Mississippi's next U.S. Senator, Vermont will now stand alone as the only state never represented by a woman in Congress.Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant will be appointing Hyde-Smith to replace retiring Senator Thad Cochran on April 1. The new Senator will then have to run in a special election this November to keep her job for two more years (the rest of Cochran's term).On that same day, Mississippi's other Senator--Roger Wicker--will also be up for re-election. Wicker is expected to win easily.However, the rules of the special election will be a little different

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768603-05-2018Cochran Resigns, Another Wrinkle in Electoral Landscape
As had been rumored for a long-time, Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) announced his resignation effective April 1.That means the Governor, Republican Phil Bryant, will appoint an interim Senator to serve until a Special Election in November.  The winner in November will serve the rest of Cochran's term and then run again in 2020.With this new development, Mississippi and Minnesota will both have a pair of US Senate elections in the fall.  Depending upon whom the Governor appoints, conservative activist Chris McDaniel may decide to run for this seat rather than challenge Senator Roger Wicker.

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544702-14-2018Hillary Clinton On the Campaign Trail in 2018?
I had a nice chat this morning with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends First. The general topic was Election 2018 and what to expect in November.But Jillian also asked about reports that Hillary Clinton might get engaged in some campaigning for the Democratic candidates. That would be great news for the GOP.See the interview here.On a somewhat related topic, Politico reports that Democrats consider former president Bill Clinton too toxic to campaign in the midterms.

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543101-30-2018Conflicting Trends in Congressional Elections
In mid-December, the Democrats had a solid double-digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, roughly 13 points on average. Over the past month, that's been cut in half with most recent polls showing the Democrats holding around a six point advantage. That's good news for the GOP.At the same time, the race by race analysis has shown a steady drift in favor of the Democrats. With a decent midterm turnout, our model currently shows the Democrats winning 215 House seats, up from 209 not too long ago.The conflicting trends are primarily the result of GOP retirements. Just yesterday, Rodney Freelinghuysen

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541701-17-2018A Tale of Two Elections
Much has been made of how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans in this election cycle. Only one GOP incumbent (Nevada's Dean Heller) is seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending many seats in states won handily by President Trump.In the House, however, things are much different. Nineteen races will determine whether or not the Democrats enjoy a huge electoral wave and are able to win majority control of the House. These 19 races are in geographically much friendlier territory for Nancy Pelosi's party. Ten are located in states won

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541301-10-2018Movement in California
In the past few days, a pair of Republican Congressmen from California have announced their retirement. Darrell Issa (CA-49) and Ed Royce (CA-39) were clearly in challenging races during a difficult political environment. Their retirements shift both races a bit more in the Democrats' favor. However, the bigger story is the growing number of Republican retirements that is creating a wider playing field for Democrats to make gains in their effort to win control of the House. The more retirements we see in competitive races like these, the more likely it is that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the

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538301-02-2018The Top Political Races To Watch In 2018
As 2017 came to an end, I had a nice chat with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends about some key races to watch in 2018. I highlighted three Senate races as good indicators--Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. If the Democrats win all three, they're likely to win control of the Senate. If they lose all three, the Republicans are likely to expand their Senate majority.We also touched on the battle for control of the House. Check out the video here.

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483812-15-2017Welcome to Deeper Currents
Back when I was a pollster, I often pointed out that following the ups and downs of daily polls is a bit like watching a heavy rain fall on a river. There's a lot of splashing and noise to grab your attention but it doesn't really tell you all that much. Beneath the surface, however, you wouldn't even know it's raining. Instead, there's a deep current guiding the river steadily forward.The same is true of America. The splashing and noise of daily events and polls can certainly be entertaining. But if you want to know where the nation is heading,

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