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Prior to his nationally televised interview last night, daily tracking showed that news of a second allegation against Brett Kavanaugh pushed his ratings to new lows. Among those following the story at least a bit, just 45% had a favorable opinion of the nominee.  His ratings among all voters are even lower.However, polling conducted on Monday night and Tuesday morning found that his ratings had bounced back a bit from their lows. Now, among those following the story at least a little, 50% have a favorable opinion of the Judge. That's in the middle of the range we have

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Despite some minor ups and downs, public opinion about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh had remained fairly steady throughout the confirmation process. Neither the confirmation hearings nor the accusations from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford had a significant impact on public opinion.However, news of a second allegation against the Judge pushed his ratings to new lows. As of Monday, just 46% of those following the story want their Senator to vote for the confirmation of Kavanaugh. That's down from 51% on Friday (see all questions and trends).Polling conducted Sunday night and Monday morning found that, among those following the

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In a ScottRasmussen.com poll conducted Thursday night and Friday morning, 34% of voters nationwide say they are Very Closely following news about Brett Kavanaugh's Confirmation process. That's up from 29% the day before and 27% two days earlier (see full set of questions and trends).However, nothing else has really changed. Among those following the story at least a bit, 53% have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh, 51% want to see him confirmed, and 81% think it is at least Somewhat Likely to be confirmed.Overall, 25% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Judge while 18% have a Very Unfavorable



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IDDateTitleExcerpt
914409-25-2018Mixed Reviews for Kavanaugh Following TV Interview
Prior to his nationally televised interview last night, daily tracking showed that news of a second allegation against Brett Kavanaugh pushed his ratings to new lows. Among those following the story at least a bit, just 45% had a favorable opinion of the nominee.  His ratings among all voters are even lower.However, polling conducted on Monday night and Tuesday morning found that his ratings had bounced back a bit from their lows. Now, among those following the story at least a little, 50% have a favorable opinion of the Judge. That's in the middle of the range we have

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913309-24-2018Kavanaugh Ratings Fall Following Second Accusation
Despite some minor ups and downs, public opinion about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh had remained fairly steady throughout the confirmation process. Neither the confirmation hearings nor the accusations from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford had a significant impact on public opinion.However, news of a second allegation against the Judge pushed his ratings to new lows. As of Monday, just 46% of those following the story want their Senator to vote for the confirmation of Kavanaugh. That's down from 51% on Friday (see all questions and trends).Polling conducted Sunday night and Monday morning found that, among those following the

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911009-21-2018Growing Interest In The Kavanaugh Confirmation Process
In a ScottRasmussen.com poll conducted Thursday night and Friday morning, 34% of voters nationwide say they are Very Closely following news about Brett Kavanaugh's Confirmation process. That's up from 29% the day before and 27% two days earlier (see full set of questions and trends).However, nothing else has really changed. Among those following the story at least a bit, 53% have a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh, 51% want to see him confirmed, and 81% think it is at least Somewhat Likely to be confirmed.Overall, 25% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Judge while 18% have a Very Unfavorable

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910309-21-2018In Reviewing Survey Data, Details Matter
In recent days, we've posted a fair number of updates about Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. We've noted that among those following news of his confirmation process, roughly 50% have a favorable opinion of him and 50% an unfavorable view.Today, we released a poll measuring the favorability of all Supreme Court Justices plus Kavanaugh. In this survey, just 35% have a favorable view of the Judge and 33% an unfavorable view. The rest don't know enough to form an opinion.For those skeptical about polls, the apparent discrepancy between 50% favorable in one poll and 35% raises obvious questions.The

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908909-20-2018Weekly Pulse: 72 Percent of Americans Think Cutting Taxes, Spending and Regs are Best for the Economy
Nearly three-quarters of Americans think cutting taxes, spending and regulations is the best general approach for boosting the economy, while only 27 percent think the best way is to start new programs, increase spending, or impose more regulations on businesses, according to the Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse, released today. “The data suggests that Republicans have a pretty substantial advantage when it comes economic policy. At the moment, that isn’t reflected in the political polls,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “That suggests that many Americans are not focused on the economy, or that many simply don’t associate those

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908609-19-2018Generic Ballot Unchanged Since Accusations Against Kavanaugh: D+7
Just wanted to pass on a tidbit confirming that public opinion has shifted little since Dr. Christine Blasey Ford went public with accusations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.Just prior to Ford's interview with the Washington Post, our Generic Congressional Ballot polling showed the Democrats with an 8-point advantage among the most likely voters (49% to 41%). We will release another full week update on Saturday.In the meantime, I just looked at the results from the first three polling days of the week. The first day's survey was launched the night of Dr. Ford's interview and the third day finished up

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907509-18-2018Enhancing The Public Dialogue With A Thoughtful Response
Our mission at ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue with data driven analysis. Today, I'm happy to share an anecdote about one healthy public conversation.A few weeks ago, my weekly syndicated column appeared in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Building upon our polling data, I noted "the inability of the politically obsessed to understand the majority of Americans." I also noted that if often seems "as if the politically engaged don’t even want to understand the rest of the country."I was pleasantly surprised to see a rebuttal by a Minnetonka resident named Maria Klein. She found my data interesting

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904809-17-2018Happy Constitution Day!
On this date in 1787, 39 men signed the U.S. Constitution.They would undoubtedly be surprised at how well their efforts worked out. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of voters today believe the United States is a great nation. But, at the same time, most Americans also believe the nation has a lot of work to do before we can live up to the founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Fortunately, most expect us to keep making progress.One significant reason for such confidence is the strong foundation of the U.S. Constitution. Seventy percent (70%) of voters are happy with the system of

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904009-16-2018Is Texas Ready to Elect a Democratic Senator?
This morning, I had a nice chat with Pete Hegseth on Fox and Friends about a number of key Senate races.First up was the question that has all Republicans worried--Could Ted Cruz really lose to Beto O'Rourke? He's certainly in a tougher race than anybody ever expected. And, an upset is not out of the question. But the political gravity of Texas will probably secure Cruz another term in the Senate. At ScottRasmussen.com we rate this race as Likely Republican.We also discussed 3 of the 6 toss-up races. In Indiana and Missouri, Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly and Claire

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900509-13-2018Job Creators Network and Pollster Scott Rasmussen Launch Weekly Tracking Survey on the Economy
I'm excited to announce a new, long-range project being launched today in partnership with The Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF). The foundation serves as an educational resource for small businesses and employees. This partnership will build upon and strengthen the commitment of ScottRasmussen.com to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).Every week we will ask 1,000 adults to answer five standard questions on the economy and a handful of additional questions aimed at current issues, developing stories, and trending topics. Our data will have implications for policymakers, investors, journalists, academics, market

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900109-12-2018Voters More Likely to Give Blood Than Engage in Politics
Twenty-three percent (23%) of voters have given blood over the past year while just 6% have volunteered for a political campaign. In fact, they are far more willing to give of their time to a wide variety of community activities than to even display a political bumper sticker or yard sign.That's because they overwhelmingly believe that volunteering for community activities is the best way to have a positive impact. Ninety-four percent(94%) also believe that giving to charity is a better use of money than giving to a political campaign.This and other data strongly suggests that voters have a healthy perspective

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897209-09-2018Most folks want less noise, more substance, from lawmakers
A nice editorial in the Oklahoman this morning builds upon research from ScottRasmussen.com.The Editorial Board wrote that the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings "gave the partisans from both major parties plenty of ammo for their constant attacks on each other, but it most likely did little to engage or persuade Americans who have grown weary of politics and politicians."Citing my recent column, they noted that most voters have mixed views and don't see the midterms as the ultimate fight between good and evil. In their words, "these polls indicate the high-pitched, ideologically driven battles so prevalent today are less important

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892009-05-2018The Most Important Freedoms
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters consider Freedom of Speech "Absolutely Essential." Sixty-eight percent (68%) say the same about Freedom of Religion. When you add in those who consider these rights "Very Important," it turns out that nine-out-of-ten Americans agree on their importance. That's an amazing level of agreement in this polarized political climate.The freedom to be ourselves is especially important when 64% believe that Freedom is more important than democracy  

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889409-04-2018Betting Markets Suggest GOP Might Gain 3 Senate Seats
The betting markets at PredictIt.org currently suggest that Republicans might pick up a net 3 seats in the U.S. Senate.The markets show Republicans with a better than 50% chance of picking-up seats in Missouri (McCaskill), Florida (Nelson), North Dakota (Heitkamp), and Indiana (Donnelly).Only in Nevada (Heller) are Democrats given a better than 50-50 shot of flipping a seat.The Republicans are also defending open seats in Arizona and Tennessee. As of 10:00 a.m. Eastern on September 4, the GOP was favored to hang on to both (although the Arizona race is just barely better than even for Republicans).Obviously, the betting markets

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882909-01-2018Voters Desire for Outsider with Experience
On a fun segment for Hill.TV's What's America Thinking,  a Monmouth University Poll was highlighted showing that people wanted an outsider but also someone with experience. When asked if voters were being contradictory, my response was essentially that it's more about nuance than contradiction.  "They want somebody who has that outsider's attitude, who remembers the folks back home, who remembers what it was like to be an outsider," he continued. "But they also want somebody who can hit the ground running and get something done because they've seen too many people get elected without experience who do nothing."While some

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881208-30-2018Keeping Politics in Perspective
Americans overwhelmingly recognize that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have had a bigger impact on our world than presidents of the United States. Earlier, we released data showing that most believe freedom is more important than Democracy. The two themes are completely intertwined. The more freedom people have, the less significant politics becomes. But, when we have less freedom, politics becomes all consuming. There is obviously a need for politics and government, but we should keep it in perspective. Most positive change starts outside the formal processes of our government.In reality, of course, there is not a clear

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866908-29-2018Scott Rasmussen and HarrisX Launch Daily Tracking Poll
I'm thrilled to announce a partnership with HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys, to launch the ScottRasmusen.com Daily Tracking Poll (see the HarrisX release).We've been interviewing 1,000 Registered Voters five nights a week since August 6 and are beginning to release the data today. My first column based on the data looks at a segment of the population most politically obsessed people can't begin to comprehend: the 26% of voters who don't think things would be much different if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election.Each day, we'll release 4 to 8 updates measuring both

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866408-29-201826% Believe Little Would Be Different If Clinton Was President
Mark Penn recently observed that "You don’t need polls to see the America you live in." That's not their purpose. Instead, "you need polls to understand the part of America you don’t know, don’t see, and don’t understand."In that spirit, my first column based upon data from the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll looks at a segment of the population that the politically obsessed can't begin to understand. Twenty-six percent (26%) of Registered Voters nationwide don't believe things would all that different in the country today if Hillary Clinton was president.Most Americans reject the political world view of the

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866708-29-2018Enhancing the Public Dialogue
The mission of ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion.While the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll measures public opinion about many political topics, the focus of our research and analysis is on underlying public attitudes rather than the partisan political obsessions of official Washington. This is especially important at a time when many words used in the political dialogue have different meanings and implications among the general public.Our overall approach is based upon the reality that governing society is not the responsibility of government alone. Every organization and relationship

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866808-29-2018Conflicted Supporters and Other Dimensions of The Trump Spectrum
Each day in the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll, we ask 1,000 Registered Voters how they rate President Trump's performance in office. In addition to the Job Approval rating, we also ask a follow-up question asking if things would be better worse or pretty much the same if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 election. Perhaps the most stunning piece of data for many political activists is that 26% of voters don't think things would be all that different with Clinton in the White House today (see my column on the topic).Another interesting finding comes from looking at that

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866608-29-2018The ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll
On August 6, in partnership with HarrisX, ScottRasmussen.com began surveying 1,000 Registered Voters five nights a week. Today, we are pleased to release our first batch of data from that survey project.Today's data includes our first Generic Congressional Ballot release (showing Democrats with a 6-point edge), the President's Job Approval (47%), and Trust in Government (18% Trust the Federal Government most of the time). We will be updating these results weekly during our launch phase but will move to a daily release schedule in mid-September.We have also released data showing that  38% Believe Congress Too Conservative (and 34%

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866508-29-2018Is Phone Polling Dead?
There is a vigorous debate as to whether phone polling is dead or just dying. Some of it is fueled by the erroneous notion that the pollsters total missed the mark in the 2016 election. Actually, the national poll results were generally accurate in forecasting a modest popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton. While the polling was decent, the analysis wasn't.Still, there are legitimate questions about the viability of phone polling in a time when fewer than half the nation's households have a landline telephone. And, calling cell phones isn't necessarily the answer. Hardly anybody answers their cell phones unless

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862808-20-201837 of 40 Competitive House Races Currently Held By GOP
This morning, I spoke with Jackie Ibanez about what to look for in the midterms (see video). Eight Republican held seats in the House are currently projected to flip. That means Democrats need to win 15 out of 40 competitive races to gain majority control. Top issues will be economy, health care, and immigration. But, to get a sense of how tough the terrain is, 37 of the 40 competitive races are currently held by Republicans. The GOP is on defense and simply hoping to minimize their losses.

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850806-22-2018Markets Say Democrats Have 24% Chance of Winning Senate
As of 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 22, Predictit.org shows that the Democrats have a 24% chance of winning the U.S. Senate in November. The odds are determined by people placing bets for or against various election scenarios.Looking at the race-by-race assessment, the betting market sees the Republicans as likely to lose Senate seats in both Arizona and Nevada. They GOP is given just a 37% chance in Arizona's open seat race and a 30% shot in Nevada where Dean Heller is the only Republican incumbent running in a state won by Hillary Clinton.Three Democratic Senators are given less

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817804-21-2018The Challenges of Populism
The United States was founded on noble ideals of freedom, self-governance, and equality. As a nation, of course, we've never fully lived up to those ideals. But striving for them has made us a better nation.One of the core practical challenges in living up to those ideals is the question of what self-governance looks like in practice. What does consent of the governed mean in day-to-day life? If the people are supposed to be in charge, how do we insure that government officials respect their wishes?In a thoughtful piece, Brookings' scholar William Galston describes four different concepts that get wrapped

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797403-21-2018Vermont Now Only State Never Represented by a Woman in Congress
With the announcement that Cindy Hyde-Smith will be Mississippi's next U.S. Senator, Vermont will now stand alone as the only state never represented by a woman in Congress.Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant will be appointing Hyde-Smith to replace retiring Senator Thad Cochran on April 1. The new Senator will then have to run in a special election this November to keep her job for two more years (the rest of Cochran's term).On that same day, Mississippi's other Senator--Roger Wicker--will also be up for re-election. Wicker is expected to win easily.However, the rules of the special election will be a little different

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768603-05-2018Cochran Resigns, Another Wrinkle in Electoral Landscape
As had been rumored for a long-time, Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) announced his resignation effective April 1.That means the Governor, Republican Phil Bryant, will appoint an interim Senator to serve until a Special Election in November.  The winner in November will serve the rest of Cochran's term and then run again in 2020.With this new development, Mississippi and Minnesota will both have a pair of US Senate elections in the fall.  Depending upon whom the Governor appoints, conservative activist Chris McDaniel may decide to run for this seat rather than challenge Senator Roger Wicker.

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544702-14-2018Hillary Clinton On the Campaign Trail in 2018?
I had a nice chat this morning with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends First. The general topic was Election 2018 and what to expect in November.But Jillian also asked about reports that Hillary Clinton might get engaged in some campaigning for the Democratic candidates. That would be great news for the GOP.See the interview here.On a somewhat related topic, Politico reports that Democrats consider former president Bill Clinton too toxic to campaign in the midterms.

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543101-30-2018Conflicting Trends in Congressional Elections
In mid-December, the Democrats had a solid double-digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, roughly 13 points on average. Over the past month, that's been cut in half with most recent polls showing the Democrats holding around a six point advantage. That's good news for the GOP.At the same time, the race by race analysis has shown a steady drift in favor of the Democrats. With a decent midterm turnout, our model currently shows the Democrats winning 215 House seats, up from 209 not too long ago.The conflicting trends are primarily the result of GOP retirements. Just yesterday, Rodney Freelinghuysen

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541701-17-2018A Tale of Two Elections
Much has been made of how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans in this election cycle. Only one GOP incumbent (Nevada's Dean Heller) is seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending many seats in states won handily by President Trump.In the House, however, things are much different. Nineteen races will determine whether or not the Democrats enjoy a huge electoral wave and are able to win majority control of the House. These 19 races are in geographically much friendlier territory for Nancy Pelosi's party. Ten are located in states won

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541301-10-2018Movement in California
In the past few days, a pair of Republican Congressmen from California have announced their retirement. Darrell Issa (CA-49) and Ed Royce (CA-39) were clearly in challenging races during a difficult political environment. Their retirements shift both races a bit more in the Democrats' favor. However, the bigger story is the growing number of Republican retirements that is creating a wider playing field for Democrats to make gains in their effort to win control of the House. The more retirements we see in competitive races like these, the more likely it is that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the

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538301-02-2018The Top Political Races To Watch In 2018
As 2017 came to an end, I had a nice chat with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends about some key races to watch in 2018. I highlighted three Senate races as good indicators--Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. If the Democrats win all three, they're likely to win control of the Senate. If they lose all three, the Republicans are likely to expand their Senate majority.We also touched on the battle for control of the House. Check out the video here.

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483812-15-2017Welcome to Deeper Currents
Back when I was a pollster, I often pointed out that following the ups and downs of daily polls is a bit like watching a heavy rain fall on a river. There's a lot of splashing and noise to grab your attention but it doesn't really tell you all that much. Beneath the surface, however, you wouldn't even know it's raining. Instead, there's a deep current guiding the river steadily forward.The same is true of America. The splashing and noise of daily events and polls can certainly be entertaining. But if you want to know where the nation is heading,

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