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The United States was founded on noble ideals of freedom, self-governance, and equality. As a nation, of course, we've never fully lived up to those ideals. But striving for them has made us a better nation.One of the core practical challenges in living up to those ideals is the question of what self-governance looks like in practice. What does consent of the governed mean in day-to-day life? If the people are supposed to be in charge, how do we insure that government officials respect their wishes?In a thoughtful piece, Brookings' scholar William Galston describes four different concepts that get wrapped

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With the announcement that Cindy Hyde-Smith will be Mississippi's next U.S. Senator, Vermont will now stand alone as the only state never represented by a woman in Congress.Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant will be appointing Hyde-Smith to replace retiring Senator Thad Cochran on April 1. The new Senator will then have to run in a special election this November to keep her job for two more years (the rest of Cochran's term).On that same day, Mississippi's other Senator--Roger Wicker--will also be up for re-election. Wicker is expected to win easily.However, the rules of the special election will be a little different

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As had been rumored for a long-time, Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) announced his resignation effective April 1.That means the Governor, Republican Phil Bryant, will appoint an interim Senator to serve until a Special Election in November.  The winner in November will serve the rest of Cochran's term and then run again in 2020.With this new development, Mississippi and Minnesota will both have a pair of US Senate elections in the fall.  Depending upon whom the Governor appoints, conservative activist Chris McDaniel may decide to run for this seat rather than challenge Senator Roger Wicker.



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IDDateTitleExcerpt
IDDateTitleExcerpt
817804-21-2018The Challenges of Populism
The United States was founded on noble ideals of freedom, self-governance, and equality. As a nation, of course, we've never fully lived up to those ideals. But striving for them has made us a better nation.One of the core practical challenges in living up to those ideals is the question of what self-governance looks like in practice. What does consent of the governed mean in day-to-day life? If the people are supposed to be in charge, how do we insure that government officials respect their wishes?In a thoughtful piece, Brookings' scholar William Galston describes four different concepts that get wrapped

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797403-21-2018Vermont Now Only State Never Represented by a Woman in Congress
With the announcement that Cindy Hyde-Smith will be Mississippi's next U.S. Senator, Vermont will now stand alone as the only state never represented by a woman in Congress.Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant will be appointing Hyde-Smith to replace retiring Senator Thad Cochran on April 1. The new Senator will then have to run in a special election this November to keep her job for two more years (the rest of Cochran's term).On that same day, Mississippi's other Senator--Roger Wicker--will also be up for re-election. Wicker is expected to win easily.However, the rules of the special election will be a little different

read more
768603-05-2018Cochran Resigns, Another Wrinkle in Electoral Landscape
As had been rumored for a long-time, Senator Thad Cochran (R-MS) announced his resignation effective April 1.That means the Governor, Republican Phil Bryant, will appoint an interim Senator to serve until a Special Election in November.  The winner in November will serve the rest of Cochran's term and then run again in 2020.With this new development, Mississippi and Minnesota will both have a pair of US Senate elections in the fall.  Depending upon whom the Governor appoints, conservative activist Chris McDaniel may decide to run for this seat rather than challenge Senator Roger Wicker.

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544702-14-2018Hillary Clinton On the Campaign Trail in 2018?
I had a nice chat this morning with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends First. The general topic was Election 2018 and what to expect in November.But Jillian also asked about reports that Hillary Clinton might get engaged in some campaigning for the Democratic candidates. That would be great news for the GOP.See the interview here.On a somewhat related topic, Politico reports that Democrats consider former president Bill Clinton too toxic to campaign in the midterms.

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543101-30-2018Conflicting Trends in Congressional Elections
In mid-December, the Democrats had a solid double-digit lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, roughly 13 points on average. Over the past month, that's been cut in half with most recent polls showing the Democrats holding around a six point advantage. That's good news for the GOP.At the same time, the race by race analysis has shown a steady drift in favor of the Democrats. With a decent midterm turnout, our model currently shows the Democrats winning 215 House seats, up from 209 not too long ago.The conflicting trends are primarily the result of GOP retirements. Just yesterday, Rodney Freelinghuysen

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541701-17-2018A Tale of Two Elections
Much has been made of how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans in this election cycle. Only one GOP incumbent (Nevada's Dean Heller) is seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending many seats in states won handily by President Trump.In the House, however, things are much different. Nineteen races will determine whether or not the Democrats enjoy a huge electoral wave and are able to win majority control of the House. These 19 races are in geographically much friendlier territory for Nancy Pelosi's party. Ten are located in states won

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541301-10-2018Movement in California
In the past few days, a pair of Republican Congressmen from California have announced their retirement. Darrell Issa (CA-49) and Ed Royce (CA-39) were clearly in challenging races during a difficult political environment. Their retirements shift both races a bit more in the Democrats' favor. However, the bigger story is the growing number of Republican retirements that is creating a wider playing field for Democrats to make gains in their effort to win control of the House. The more retirements we see in competitive races like these, the more likely it is that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the

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538301-02-2018The Top Political Races To Watch In 2018
As 2017 came to an end, I had a nice chat with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends about some key races to watch in 2018. I highlighted three Senate races as good indicators--Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. If the Democrats win all three, they're likely to win control of the Senate. If they lose all three, the Republicans are likely to expand their Senate majority.We also touched on the battle for control of the House. Check out the video here.

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483812-15-2017Welcome to Deeper Currents
Back when I was a pollster, I often pointed out that following the ups and downs of daily polls is a bit like watching a heavy rain fall on a river. There's a lot of splashing and noise to grab your attention but it doesn't really tell you all that much. Beneath the surface, however, you wouldn't even know it's raining. Instead, there's a deep current guiding the river steadily forward.The same is true of America. The splashing and noise of daily events and polls can certainly be entertaining. But if you want to know where the nation is heading,

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