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Much has been made of how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans in this election cycle. Only one GOP incumbent (Nevada's Dean Heller) is seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending many seats in states won handily by President Trump.In the House, however, things are much different. Nineteen races will determine whether or not the Democrats enjoy a huge electoral wave and are able to win majority control of the House. These 19 races are in geographically much friendlier territory for Nancy Pelosi's party. Ten are located in states won

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In the past few days, a pair of Republican Congressmen from California have announced their retirement. Darrell Issa (CA-49) and Ed Royce (CA-39) were clearly in challenging races during a difficult political environment. Their retirements shift both races a bit more in the Democrats' favor. However, the bigger story is the growing number of Republican retirements that is creating a wider playing field for Democrats to make gains in their effort to win control of the House. The more retirements we see in competitive races like these, the more likely it is that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the

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As 2017 came to an end, I had a nice chat with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends about some key races to watch in 2018. I highlighted three Senate races as good indicators--Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. If the Democrats win all three, they're likely to win control of the Senate. If they lose all three, the Republicans are likely to expand their Senate majority.We also touched on the battle for control of the House. Check out the video here.



Full Archive

IDDateTitleExcerpt
IDDateTitleExcerpt
541701-17-2018A Tale of Two Elections
Much has been made of how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans in this election cycle. Only one GOP incumbent (Nevada's Dean Heller) is seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending many seats in states won handily by President Trump.In the House, however, things are much different. Nineteen races will determine whether or not the Democrats enjoy a huge electoral wave and are able to win majority control of the House. These 19 races are in geographically much friendlier territory for Nancy Pelosi's party. Ten are located in states won

read more
541301-10-2018Movement in California
In the past few days, a pair of Republican Congressmen from California have announced their retirement. Darrell Issa (CA-49) and Ed Royce (CA-39) were clearly in challenging races during a difficult political environment. Their retirements shift both races a bit more in the Democrats' favor. However, the bigger story is the growing number of Republican retirements that is creating a wider playing field for Democrats to make gains in their effort to win control of the House. The more retirements we see in competitive races like these, the more likely it is that Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the

read more
538301-02-2018The Top Political Races To Watch In 2018
As 2017 came to an end, I had a nice chat with Jillian Mele on Fox and Friends about some key races to watch in 2018. I highlighted three Senate races as good indicators--Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. If the Democrats win all three, they're likely to win control of the Senate. If they lose all three, the Republicans are likely to expand their Senate majority.We also touched on the battle for control of the House. Check out the video here.

read more
483812-15-2017Welcome to Deeper Currents
Back when I was a pollster, I often pointed out that following the ups and downs of daily polls is a bit like watching a heavy rain fall on a river. There's a lot of splashing and noise to grab your attention but it doesn't really tell you all that much. Beneath the surface, however, you wouldn't even know it's raining. Instead, there's a deep current guiding the river steadily forward.The same is true of America. The splashing and noise of daily events and polls can certainly be entertaining. But if you want to know where the nation is heading,

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