Generic Ballot: Democrats 41% Republicans 38%

If the election were held today,  41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 38% would vote for the Republican. Those numbers are unchanged from a month ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 7% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

In early May, the Democrats were up by just a single point (41% to 40%).  The month before, President Biden’s party enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

Democrats lead by a wide 60% to 29% margin among voters with a postgraduate degree. Among all other voters, the numbers are evenly divided: 40% favor the GOP and 38% favor the Democrats.

Democrats have a 57% to 25% advantage among Urban voters. Republicans lead among Suburban and Rural voters.

The Democratic advantage has held steady despite a collapse in confidence about the pandemic. In late May, 56% believed the worst of the pandemic was behind us. That optimism has now fallen to 34%. That’s a 22 point decline over the past two months. Confidence is now at the lowest level since the vaccines became available. In fact, for the first time since January, a plurality (38%) believes the worst is yet to come.

Looking back over the past year or so, 55% of voters agree that “Despite good intentions, shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good.” Just  38% disagree and 7% are not sure.

On this topic, there is a racial divide within the Democratic Party. White Democrats, by a 65% to 32% margin, reject the idea that lockdowns did more harm than good. Black Democrats and Other Democrats are evenly divided.

During the pandemic, government officials exercised extraordinary power over the lives of individual Americans. The survey also found that 62% are worried that many government officials will try to continue exercising such power over individual Americans.

On this topic, there is also a divide within the Democratic Party. White Democrats, by a 57% to 39% margin, are not worried about government officials keeping too much power. Black Democrats, by a 64% to 27% margin, are worried.

Other recent surveys found that 84% of voters are confident they have access to Medical Care for serious health issues. Additionally,81% are at least somewhat satisfied with their choice of doctors.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 271were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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