Generic Ballot: Democrats 41% Republicans 38%

If the election were held today,  41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 38% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 6% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

In early May, the Democrats were up by just a single point (41% to 40%).  The month before, President Biden’s party enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

A big wild card in the midterm elections will be independent voters. Currently, 19% of them favor the GOP and 11% would vote for a Democrat. However, 70% would either vote for some other candidate (23%) or are undecided (47%). As always, undecided voters have two decisions to make. The first is whether or not to vote, the second is for whom.

Scott Rasmussen’s most recent column looks at why voters distrust government experts. One stunning figure in the column is that 55% of voters believe that letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

One major example of the underlying distrust can be found in reaction the pandemic lab-leak theory. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that US Government Officials actively tried to cover-up that theory.

Other recent polls show that 32% say their Personal Finances are getting better while 28% have the opposite view. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters believe most executives of giant corporations favor Democrats. Twenty-nine percent (29%) think they prefer the GOP.


The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 205 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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