40% Expect America To Be More Polarized in a Year, Up 12 Points from a Month Ago

Looking ahead to next year at this time, 40% expect America will be more polarized than it is today. That’s up twelve points from a month ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% of voters believe America will be more unified, down three points. Twenty-nine percent (29%) aren’t expecting much change.

The previous poll was conducted in the days leading up to the inauguration of President Joe Biden. Since that time, there has been no measurable change in perceptions among Democrats.  Currently, 34% of those in Biden’s party expect the nation to be more unified, while just 18% expect things to get worse.

However, among Republicans, the number expecting the nation to become more polarized jumped from 37% a month ago to 65% now.

Among Independent voters, 41% now anticipate an increase in polarization. That’s up from 28% a month ago.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.


The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from February 25-27, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 156 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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