77% Say It’s Possible To Love Someone Without Approving of Their Lifestyle

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters believe it is possible to love someone without approving of their lifestyle. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 14% disagree and 9% are not sure.

That view is widely shared across all measured demographic groups.

Additionally, 60% believe it is possible to support the policies advocated by Donald Trump without supporting Donald Trump. On that question, 29% disagree and 11% are not sure.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans believe it is possible. So do Independent voters, by a 57% to 26% margin. However, a modest plurality of Democrats (48%) say it is not possible to support Trump’s policies without supporting Trump himself.

Among those who prefer Trump-like policies, 84% believe it is possible to separate the policies from the man. Just 13% disagree.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Question 1:

Is it possible to love someone without approving of their lifestyle?

77%    Yes

14%    No

9%    Not sure

Question 2:

Is it possible to support the policies advocated by Donald Trump without supporting Donald Trump?

60%    Yes

29%    No

11%    Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on October 14-16, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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58% Have Confidence In American Elections

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters are confident that American elections are conducted in a manner that ensures all votes are counted and that the proper winners are declared. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% lack such confidence and 7% are not sure.

The totals include 31% who are Very Confident and 18% who are Not at All Confident.

As has been true for decades, the party winning the White House has greater confidence in the election process. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Democrats have confidence in American elections. Just 48% of Independent voters and 42% or Republicans agree.

Looking back, most Democrats (54%) continue to believe that Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner of the 2016 presidential election. Most Republicans (63%) believe that Donald Trump was the legitimate winner in 2020.

Just 30% of voters are confident that the right person was declared president in both 2016 and 2020.

These perceptions have changed little since March.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 28-29, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

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50% Believe Things Would Be Better Today If Trump Had Won; 39% Say Worse

Fifty percent (50%) of voters believe things would be better today if Donald Trump had won the 2020 presidential election. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 39% believe things would be worse and 12% who don’t think things would be all that different.

The total includes 34% who say things would be much better and 29% who say much worse.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans believe things would be better while 68% of Democrats hold the opposite view. Among Independents, 43% say better and 39% worse.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of White voters believe things would be better if Trump had won. So do 53% of Hispanic voters and 26% of Black voters.

These results may highlight some challenges resulting from President Biden’s call for a vaccine mandate. While the proposal is modestly popular overall,  26% of Black Democrats believe individuals should decide for themselves whether to get vaccinated. Additionally, 60% of Hispanic voters have a close friend or relative who will get vaccinated against their will because they can’t afford to lose their job.

President Biden has gotten very low marks for handling the situation at the southern border of the United States. On a related national security topic, most voters disapprove of the president’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan before all Americans were evacuated.

Overall, a plurality of voters would prefer a candidate who supports Trump-like policies.

President Biden has had a challenging few months and his job approval ratings have slipped.

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*  Suppose that Donald Trump had won the 2020 election. Would things today be better, worse, or about the same?

34%      Much better

16%      Somewhat better

10%      Somewhat worse

29%      Much worse

6%       About the same

6%       Not sure

Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 16-18, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 263 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Democrats See Trump Supporters and the Unvaccinated As Biggest Threat to Nation

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Democratic voters believe supporters of Donald Trump are a serious threat to the nation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 56% of those in President Biden’s party also consider the unvaccinated a serious threat. That’s a higher level of concern than Democrats express about the Taliban (44% see it as a serious threat); China (44%), or Russia (37%).

These results help explain the tone and actions taken recently by President Biden.

Republicans and Independents have a much different view of the threats facing the nation.

For Republicans, the top concerns are the Taliban (66%), Defund the Police Activists (62%), and China (58%).

The top three concerns for Independents are the same as the GOP (though in a different order). The Taliban is the biggest concern for independent voters (46%) followed by China (45%) and Defund the Police Activists (36%).

Among all voters, 52% see the Taliban as a serious threat and 49% say the same about China. Next on the list, 40% see Defund the Police Activists as a serious threat and 39% see the unvaccinated that way.

While Democrats see Trump supporters as the biggest threat facing the nation, 42% of all voters see them as no threat. That’s not terribly surprising given that the former president received nearly as many votes as President Biden. This is the only group asked about in the survey where the number saying No Threat tops the Serious Threat.

The disconnect may come from the fact that a plurality of Democrats think most Trump voters supported those who assaulted the Capitol. However, that is not the case. A solid majority of Republicans and a solid majority of Trump supporters disapprove of those who broke into the Capitol on January 6.

Going even further, 45% of voters consider the January 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol a major threat to democracy. However, a slightly larger number–55%– believe letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

On the topic of seeing the unvaccinated as a threat, Scott Rasmussen recently asked vaccinated voters an open-ended question on their thoughts about the unvaccinated. The responses are far less angry than you might expect from the media coverage (see the raw responses from 659 vaccinated voters here).

Other recent survey data helps explain the lack of anger in the comments offered by vaccinated voters. Most (57%) are comfortable attending indoor social events without wearing a mask. Also, if they tested positive for COVID, 67% of voters think it’s they would recover quickly with only minor symptoms. Just 5% say such a recovery is Not at All Likely.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 8, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

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On Immigration, Voters Prefer Trump Over Biden

Regardless of their view on other issues, 45% of voters believe President Trump had better immigration policies than President Biden. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% prefer the Biden approach.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans prefer Trump while 73% of Democrats like the Biden approach. Among Independents, Trump is favored by a 42% to 21% margin.

These results come at a time when just 31% of voters believe President Biden is doing a good job handling the situation at the Southern border.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters believe the growing number of illegal immigrants to be an invasion of the United States. But they’re not sure which side the federal government is on.  Just 28% of voters believe the federal government today is even trying to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration.

If the federal government does not make an effort to secure the border, 61% believe state governments should be allowed to take over and secure their state border. Just 21% are opposed to state action.

There is a strong belief among voters that many of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers, human traffickers, and more.  Data released earlier showed that 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government.

Half of all voters see illegal immigration as a crisis, an assessment the Biden Administration rejects.

Other recent polling data showed that 32% of voters believe all, or just about all, illegal immigrants living in the United States should be granted amnesty and allowed to remain in the country. Forty-two percent (42%) are opposed.

Nineteen percent (19%) of voters believe that U.S. border patrol agents re too harsh in dealing with illegal immigrants. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 33% believe they are too lenient.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from August 10-11, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Plurality of Voters Prefer Trump-like Policies

Given a choice between four presidential candidates with equal skills and temperament, 32% would prefer a candidate who supported policies like those of former President Trump. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 21% would like a candidate who supported policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders; 21% favor a traditional Democrat; and, 15% favor a traditional Republican.

Voters under 45 are more likely to support Sanders-like policies. Older voters are more likely to support Trump-like policies.

Among urban voters, a plurality prefer Sanders-like policies. In the suburbs and rural areas, Trump-like policies are the most popular.

Among those with a college degree, a narrow plurality prefers policies like those of Senator Sanders. A solid plurality of those without a college degree prefer policies like those of President Trump.

It’s important to remember that the question focused on the policy preference assuming that the candidates had equal skills and temperament. As a result, it cannot be assumed that someone who supports policies like those of Trump or Sanders would automatically support Trump or Sanders as a candidate.

We have been asking this question regularly since last October. Despite the election results and everything that has happened since, these attitudes have remained remarkably stable. The current results are similar to those found in April.

  • These numbers show 47% favoring one of the Republican leaning options while 42% prefer a Democratic leaning set of policies. In every update of the survey, the partisan split has remained essentially even. That’s not surprising given that we have had nine consecutive presidential elections where neither candidate has received more than 53% of the vote. It’s the longest such stretch in American history.
  • On the Republican side, the number preferring Trump-like policies is consistently two to three times as large as the number favoring traditional GOP policies. However, younger GOP-leaning voters are more evenly divided.
  • On the other hand, the two wings of the Democratic party are always just about evenly divided.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 8-10, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 231 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

47% Believe Big Tech Companies Actively Supported Biden in 2020; 10% Say They Supported Trump

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters believe Big Tech companies actively supported Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential election. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 10% think they actively supported Donald Trump.

Twenty percent (20%) believe that the companies remained neutral and 23% are not sure.

In every measured demographic group, more voters believed that the companies supported Biden rather than Trump. Even Democrats, by a 3-to-1 margin, held that view.

Other data showed that 78% of voters believe tech companies like Twitter, Facebook, and Google  could swing the results of the election to benefit their preferred candidate. Additionally, 62% believe technology companies have too much influence on our politics and political campaigns.

Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act gives big tech companies special immunity from prosecution for things posted on their platforms. Since they received this immunity from the government, 63% of voters believe they should they be required to abide by the 1st Amendment guarantee of free speech.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters believe it is more important to ensure that social media companies operate fairly rather than protecting the companies from government interference. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 19% disagree and believe protecting social media companies from government interference is the higher priority.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 24-27, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.   Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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28% Say Biden Better Than Expected, 27% Say Worse

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of voters say that, so far, President Biden has been better than they expected. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that a nearly identical number–27%– hold the opposite view. Forty percent (40%) say he’s been about what they expected and 5% are not sure.

Not surprisingly, there is a partisan difference. By a 45% to 6% margin, Democrats say the president has exceeded their expectations. However, by a 51% to 12% margin, Republicans think he has been worse than they feared.

Most Independent voters (56%) say either that Biden is about what they expected or they don’t know enough to have an opinion.

The fissures within each political party are somewhat visible in this data. Among those who prefer Traditional Republican policies, 20% say Biden is better than they expected. Among those who prefer Trump-like policies, only 9% hold that view.

On the flip side, just 3% of those who favor traditional Democratic policies say the president has been worse than expected. However, among those who prefer Sanders like policies, 10% have been disappointed.

It will be interesting to see if these divides grow over time.

Other recent polling showed that just 15% of voters believe the country will be more unified in a year. Thirty-two percent (32%) expect it to be more polarized.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 29-30, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.   Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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31% Prefer a Candidate Pursuing Trump-like Policies

Given a choice between four presidential candidates with equal skills and temperament, 31% would prefer a candidate who supported policies like those of President Trump. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 24% would like a candidate who supported policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders; 20% favor a traditional Democrat; and, 15% favor a traditional Republican.

We have been asking this question regularly since last October. Despite the election results and everything that has happened since, these attitudes have remained remarkably stable.

  • These numbers show 46% favoring one of the Republican leaning options while 44% prefer a Democratic leaning set of policies. In every update of the survey, the partisan split has remained essentially even. That’s not surprising given that we have had nine consecutive presidential elections where neither candidate has received more than 53% of the vote. It’s the longest such stretch in American history.
  • On the Republican side, the number preferring Trump-like policies is consistently two to three times as large as the number favoring traditional GOP policies. However, younger GOP-leaning voters are more evenly divided.
  • On the other hand, the two wings of the Democratic party are always just about evenly divided.
  • Urban voters strongly support one of the Democratic options. Those in the suburbs lean towards one of the GOP options while rural voters prefer the GOP.
  • Those favoring populist policies (Trump or Sanders) consistently outnumber those favoring more traditional policies. This week, the numbers show 55% favoring populist policies while 35% prefer a more traditional approach.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 15-17, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 261 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Just 26% Believe the Right Person Was Declared Winner in Last Two Presidential Elections

Just one-out-of-four voters (26%) believe that the right person was declared the winner in each of the last two presidential elections.

Most voters (56%) believe at least one of the last two presidents was illegitimately put into office. That includes 26% who believe Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner in 2016 and 31% who believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner in 2020. Another 17% are not sure who really won at least one of the elections. One percent (1%) believe the wrong person was declared the winner both times.

After more than four years, most Democrats (52%) still believe that Hillary Clinton was the legitimate winner of the 2016 election. As for last November’s election, most Republicans (66%) believe Donald Trump was the legitimate winner.

In both of those elections, just 60% of voters believe that the legitimate winner became president.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 4-6, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 237 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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82% Disapprove of Those Who Occupied Capitol

A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 82% of voters disapproved of those who took part in the occupation of the U.S. Capitol. The survey found that disapproval came from 71% of Republicans. And, among those who believe President Donald Trump was the legitimate winner of Election 2020 — those who believe the election was stolen — 58% disapprove of the actions they saw on January 6.

However, fully one-third of all voters (33%) believe that most Trump voters supported the attack on the Capitol. That figure includes a solid plurality of Democrats (46%).

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from January 17-19, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were contacted online through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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55% Say Trump Worst President of Past Half Century, 16% Think He Was the Best

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide rate Donald Trump as the worst president of the past half-century. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that Barack Obama came in a distant second at 25%, with no other recent president reaching double digits.

Obama topped the list as the best president of the half century–39% of voters hold that view. In second place on that list was Ronald Reagan at 22%. Sixteen percent (16%) of voters named Trump as the best.

The results highlight how deeply entrenched the partisan divide has become. Fifty percent (50%) of voters selected a Democrat as the best president while 49% selected a Republican.

On a net basis, Reagan came out on top. While 22% named him the best president of the past half century, just 1% said he was the worst. That gave him a net positive number of 21. Obama earned a positive 14 rating (39% best, 25% worst).

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Democrats consider Obama the best president of the past five decades. Republicans are divided–38% say it was Reagan and 33% Trump.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from January 17-19, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were contacted online through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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Reality Check for Trump–and Biden–Supporters

One of the most important jobs of a public opinion pollster is to tell people what they need to hear rather than what they want to hear. Unfortunately, in most media commentary today, both supporters and opponents of President Trump are being told only what they want to hear.

With this in mind, I would like to offer the following reality check.

Supporters of President Trump need to be told that the election is over. Most of the president’s supporters have accepted that reality, but a significant minority has not. They may not like the truth, but former Vice President Joe Biden is now the President-elect and will be inaugurated on January 20. There is no Constitutional, legal, or political process that can change that outcome.

Accepting the reality that Biden won is not a form of betrayal or a sign of weakness. It is simply an acknowledgment of where things stand today.

I understand the anger and disappointment that millions of Trump supporters feel. I felt it firsthand in angry responses throughout the campaign when my polling and commentary suggested a Biden victory was the most likely outcome. I saw it in the data where large numbers of Trump voters ignored the warning signs and were confident that the president would be re-elected.

Rather than being misled to believe that there is still a path to re-election victory for President Trump, these voters should be encouraged to channel their energy in a more productive manner. One very productive direction would be devoting energy on a state-by-state basis to reform election procedures prior to the 2022 elections. Polling I conducted in Pennsylvania showed strong bi-partisan support for significant reforms.

But Trump supporters are not the only ones in need of a reality check.

The strongest Trump opponents are gleeful at the visible disappointment and reaction of Trump’s strongest supporters. Far too many still believe that Hillary Clinton was right to call them deplorable and their media outlets are promoting the idea that the failure to trust the election results is unprecedented.

In reality, the response of Trump supporters following the 2020 election has much in common with the response of Clinton supporters following the 2016 election.

In both 2016 and 2020, fans of the losing candidate never took seriously the possibility that their team might lose. When the votes were counted and the unthinkable happened, an overriding belief quickly developed that the other candidate could not have won without cheating. That led to a conviction among many on the losing side that the winner was not legitimately elected.

Following the Clinton campaign, Democrats talked of impeaching the president even before he took office. And they repeatedly believed that the next bit of breaking news was going to provide the evidence needed to remove the president from office. But that news never came because the evidence did not exist. Still, four years later, the losing candidate herself claimed that Donald Trump was not a legitimate president.

Understanding that we have had two presidential elections in a row where the losers believe they were cheated out of victory should instill a great desire to rebuild confidence in our electoral process. Seeing this reality would help Biden voters channel their energy in a more effective manner.

Recognizing the need to reform our processes of voting and counting the ballots is not the same as agreeing with those who believe the 2020 election was stolen. It is simply an acknowledgment that governments derive their only just power from the consent of the governed.  If voters do not trust the process through which elected officials are elected, the government itself will have no legitimacy.

Despite our current troubles, I remain optimistic about America’s future. Our political system is badly broken, and things may get worse before they get better. But, as I wrote in my recent column for the Deseret News, a new generation of leaders is coming soon. The most influential of them will recognize that their job is not to change America. It is to change American politics so that our government can follow where the culture is leading.

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44% of Voters Think Biden Will Win, 43% Say Trump

Forty-four percent (44%) of Likely Voters nationwide believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election. A Political IQ national survey found that 43% believe President Trump will be re-elected.

Supporters of each candidate are very confident. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Trump voters believe he will win. Eighty percent (80%) of Biden supporters believe their candidate will emerge victorious.

Those numbers reflect little change since the summer. In July, 91% of Trump supporters expected victory along with 80% of Biden supporters.

Polling both by Scott Rasmussen and all polling averages show Biden with a lead nationally and in key states. The fact that many Trump supporters still expect victory may result from several factors. One is the believe that the polls are simply wrong (or even fake). For many, that’s the key lesson from 2016. However, the polls weren’t as bad as the legend that has grown up around that election.

Another reason for confidence among Trump supporters may be a belief in a strong comeback or a strong Republican turnout. Political IQ polls conducted by Scott Rasmussen have shown the president trailing narrowly in Florida and North Carolina. However, in both cases, the Strong Republican turnout model shows the president ahead. In Pennsylvania, the president pulls to within two points with a Strong Republican turnout. That’s close enough to be competitive. However, President Trump would likely have to win all three to be re-elected.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,240 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 8-10, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 198 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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49% Better Off Than Four Years Ago, 42% Disagree

As Election 2020 approaches, 49% of the nation’s Registered Voters are better off than they were four years ago. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 42% are not while 9% are not sure.

Men, by a 53% to 38% margin, say they are better off. Women are evenly divided.

Most Republicans (74%) say they are better off while most Democrats (62%) say they are not. Independent voters are evenly divided.

Partially echoing this partisan result, Red State voters say they are better off by a 55% to 37% margin. Blue State voters are evenly divided, as are those in Purple States.

Red States are defined as those President Trump won by at least four points in 2016. Blue States are those Hillary Clinton won by at least four points. Purple States are those whose results were closer.

While a plurality of voters believe they are personally better off, just 35% believe the country is better off than it was four years ago. Most voters (56%) disagree and say it is not better off. In Blue States, 60% say the country is not better off. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters in Purple states agree with that negative assessment. So do 51% of Red States voters.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 17-19, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 161 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

 

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55% See Biden As Politically Liberal; 65% Say Trump’s Conservative

Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters nationwide see Joe Biden as politically liberal while 20% say he’s a moderate. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 13% consider the former Vice President to be politically conservative while another 13% are not sure.

As for President Trump, 65% view him as conservative, 11% say moderate, 7% liberal, and 16% are not sure.

Republican voters draw clearer ideological contrasts than other voters. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans see Trump as a conservative while 74% see Biden as a liberal. Among Democrats, 60% see Trump as conservative and 46% view Biden as liberal.

When it comes to the Vice Presidential running mates, the numbers for Senator Kamala Harris is viewed in almost identical ideological terms as Biden. That’s not surprising, especially given that all many voters know about Harris is that Biden selected her for the ticket. It is possible, though far from certain, that voters may begin to see Harris in a different ideological light between now and November.

On the other hand, Vice President Mike Pence is seen as a bit more conservative than President Trump. Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters see Pence as Very Conservative. Just 40% say the same about Trump. The perspective that Pence is more conservative than Trump is shared by Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 27-29, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 188 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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45% Think Biden Will Win in November, 40% Say Trump

Regardless of who they want to win in November, 45% of Registered Voters nationwide believes that Democrat Joe Biden will emerge victorious. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and believe Republican Donald Trump will be the victor. Two percent (2%) think someone else will win it all while 12% are not sure.

The survey was conducted after the Democratic National Convention and before the Republican National Convention.

Looking back, responses have been trending in Biden’s direction for some time. Last year, a majority of voters expected Trump to be re-elected. That was before the pandemic and the lockdowns. In late June, voters were evenly divided about who would win–42% picked Biden and 42% Trump.

Eight-out-of-ten Democrats expect Biden to win while eight-out-of-ten Republicans expect Trump to be re-elected. Among unaffiliated voters, 39% pick Biden and 35% Trump.

We will repeat the question next week to see if there is any impact from the GOP convention.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 20-22, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 142 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

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Biden 45% Trump 37% Jorgensen 2% Hawkins 1%

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 45% to 37%. That’s little changed from a month ago.

The survey also found that 2% would vote for Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen and 1% for Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. This is the first time they’ve been included in a Scott Rasmussen national poll.

Three percent (3%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 12% are not sure.

Biden leads by four points among private sector workers and 30% among government employees.

Among White voters, the president holds a narrow lead: 44% to 38%. However, he attracts support from only 8% of Black voters and 22% of Hispanic voters.

Many voters dismiss polls they don’t like because they are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any connection or relationship with Rasmussen Reports. Scott Rasmussen left that firm more than seven years ago and has had no involvement with it since then.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 23-25, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 161 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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President Trump Job Approval Up to 44%

Forty-four percent (44%) of Registered Voters nationwide approve of the way President Trump is performing his job. That’s up five points from a week ago. It’s also the highest level of support the president has enjoyed in a Scott Rasmussen poll since mid-May.

A five-point swing in a single week is unusual and some of the change is likely due to statistical noise. However, it remains to be seen whether this week’s results represent a return to the earlier levels of support for the president.

Prior to mid-May, President Trump’s approval ratings held steady around 45% for several months. However, from late May throughout the month of  June, the president’s job was several points lower in a range between 39% and 42%.

This week’s polling found that 88% of Republicans approve of the president’s performance, up eight points from a week ago. That may reflect a positive response among GOP voters to the president’s speech at Mount Rushmore. Media commentary on the speech portrayed it as divisive but many Republicans considered it a strong appeal to unity. The new numbers may also be in response to the media criticism of the president.

The president now also gets positive reviews from 37% of Independents and 12% of Democrats. Both figures are up slightly from a week ago.

The current totals include 28% who Strongly Approve and 46% who Strongly Disapprove.

Recent polling by Scott Rasmussen has also shown that 34% of voters say it will be at least six months before they’ll feel safe in public without a mask. Additionally, 74% Believe Most Americans Generally Get Along Regardless of Race and 24% Support DC Statehood.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 9-11, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 117 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the final sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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President Trump’s Job Approval: 39%

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Registered Voters nationwide approve of the way President Trump is performing his job. That’s the lowest level of approval yet measured in polling conducted by Scott Rasmussen. The survey also found that 58% disapprove.

Perhaps most concerning for the president is that support is slipping among Republicans. The latest results show that just 80% of those in his party offer their approval. That’s down slightly from 84% in mid-June.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day podcast today looks at why the president’s strong and loyal base of support may be a double edged sword for his campaign. Tomorrow, he’ll be looking at an topic that may pose a similar challenge for the Biden campaign. On Thursday, Scott’s podcast will look at an issue Democrats are pushing that may help Republicans retain control of the Senate.

In mid-June the president’s job approval was at 41%. Earlier in the year, President Trump’s approval ratings held steady in the mid-40s for several months.

The current totals include 27% who Strongly Approve and 47% who Strongly Disapprove.

Research conducted earlier found that 17% of all voters Strongly Disapprove of President Trump but also Strongly Oppose removing statues honoring George Washington.

The president also gets positive reviews from 33% of Independents and 8% of Democrats.

He also earns approval from 46% of white voters, 11% of black voters, and 27% of Hispanic voters.

Forty-four percent (44%) of self-employed voters approve of the president’s performance as do 40% of other private sector workers. Among government employees, however, just 31% approve.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 2-4, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 129 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

 

 

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Most Who Strongly Disapprove of Trump Also Oppose Removing Statues Honoring Washington

Among those who Strongly Disapprove of President Trump, 57% also disapprove of removing statues that honor George Washington. Those findings come from an analysis of a JustTheNews.com national opinion survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen.

These results help explain why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee Joe Biden publicly opposed efforts to remove statues honoring early presidents who were also slave-owners. Both had earlier expressed support for taking down statues honoring honoring Confederate soldiers. Pelosi said the issue was not about slaveholding, but loyalty to the United States: “I do believe that if people have committed treason against the United States of America their statue should not be in the Capitol.”

Politically, as the party out of power, Democrats are hoping to draw support and energy from those who Strongly Disapprove of President Trump’s performance. However, that message could be complicated if those who most oppose the president come to see the Democrats embracing a policy of removing statues honoring George Washington and other early presidents. This represents significant block of voters. Seventeen percent (17%) of all voters Strongly Disapprove of President Trump and also Strongly Oppose efforts to take down statues honoring George Washington.

Overall, among all voters, the survey found that 24% favor removing the Washington statues while 65% are opposed.

Voters nationwide are evenly divided about removing statues honoring Confederate soldiers. There is a strong alignment between those who disapprove of the president and those who support removing statues honoring those who rebelled against the United States.

The JustTheNews.com survey found plurality support for removing statues honoring just one historical figure–Karl Marx.

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Biden 47% Trump 39%

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 47% to 39%. Six percent (6%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 7% are undecided.

This is a slight improvement for the president from two weeks ago when he trailed Biden by 12. The week before that, it was Biden by ten.

There are two basic ways to assess these numbers. The first is that the difference are merely statistical noise–this latest survey is two points closer than the ten-point margin and the previous survey was two points higher.

The other approach is to consider that the two previous polls were the biggest leads enjoyed by Biden all year. Prior to that, Biden’s lead has ranged between five and nine points since late March. It may be that Biden enjoyed a modest bounce in the polls as the Civil Rights issues initially emerged and that the bounce has now faded.

The president does better among private sector workers than government employees. Within the private sector, he does better among the self-employed rather than those who work for someone else.

Many voters dismiss polls they don’t like because they are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 25-27, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 132 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

NOTE: Partisan breakdown of the sample: Democrats 37% Republicans 32% Other 31%.

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For Second Week in a Row, Trump Approval At 41%

For the second straight week, a Scott Rasmussen national survey of Registered Voters found that 41% approve of the way President Trump is performing his job. That matches last week as the lowest level of approval measured in a Scott Rasmussen national survey.

The number disapproving increased a point to 58%, a new high.

Those totals include 27% who Strongly Approve and 49% who Strongly Disapprove.

Perhaps the most significant aspect of this finding is the timing of the survey. Most interviews for last week’s survey were completed prior to the surprisingly positive jobs report showing a gain of 2.5 million new jobs. However, that does not appear to have had any immeidate impact on the president’s job approval numbers.

Looking ahead to the November election, the president’s numbers are especially weak among uncommitted voters. Among those who say they will vote for some other candidate or are undecided, just 23% approve of the president’s performance. Sixty-five percent (65%) disapprove.

Overall, approval currently come from 84% of Republicans, 34% of Independents, and 8% of Democrats.

The president earns approval from 47% of white voters, 15% of black voters, and 27% of Hispanic voters.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 11-13, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 306 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

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22% Don’t Think It Matters Whether Biden or Trump Wins

Twenty-two percent (22%) of Registered Voters don’t think it matters much whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that total includes 11% who say it won’t make any real difference in their life and 11% who aren’t sure if it will make a difference.

On top of that, another 17% say it will make only a minor difference.

That leaves 62% of voters who believe the outcome of the election will make a major difference in their life.

Seventy-two percent (72%) of Trump voters say it will make a major difference along with 68% of Biden voters.

However, among those who say they’d vote for some other candidate, 53% don’t think it will make a difference and another 20% say it would make just a minor difference.

As for undecided voters, 74% say it won’t make a difference in their lives and another 15% expect only a minor difference.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 4-6, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 246 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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Biden 47% Trump 37%

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by ten points– 47% to 37%. Nine percent (9%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 7% are undecided.

That’s an improvement for Biden who held a seven-point advantage last week. It’s also the biggest lead Biden has enjoyed in Scott Rasmussen polling all year. Prior to this, Biden’s lead has ranged between five and nine points since late March.

The former Vice President leads by 30-points among urban voters and by 14 points in the suburbs. President Trump leads by 19 among rural voters.

The survey was conducted Thursday evening through Saturday morning (June 4-6, 2020). Most of the interviews were completed prior to the surprisingly positive jobs report released on Friday. It remains to be seen whether the more encouraging economic news will have any impact on these numbers.

The same survey found the president’s job approval rating falling to a new low at 41%.

Many voters dismiss polls they don’t like because they are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published each weekday morning by Ballotpedia. Starting today, Scott is releasing a daily PODCAST in partnership with Just The News.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 4-6, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 246 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

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President Trump’s Job Approval Falls to 41%

President Trump’s Job Approval rating has fallen to 41% among Registered Voters. That’s the lowest level measured in a Scott Rasmussen national survey. Fifty-seven percent (57%) currently disapprove.

Those numbers include 28% who Strongly Approve and 47% who Strongly Disapprove.

The president earns approval from 46% of white voters, 15% of black voters, and 31% of Hispanic voters.

While most rurual voters (55%) approve of the president’s performance, that view is shared by 39% of suburban voters and 31% of those living in urban areas.

Last week, polling conducted by Scott Rasmussen for JustTheNews.com found the president’s Job Approval at 45%. In fact, several months of survey results found President Trump’s approval ratings holding steady in the mid-40s.

The survey was conducted Thursday evening through Saturday morning (June 4-6, 2020). Most of the interviews were completed prior to the surprisingly positive jobs report released on Friday. It remains to be seen whether the more encouraging economic news will have any impact on the approval numbers.

Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day is published each weekday morning by Ballotpedia. Starting today, Scott is releasing a daily PODCAST in partnership with Just The News.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 4-6, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 246 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

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President Trump Job Approval Steady at 45%

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters approve of the way President Trump is performing his job while 51% disapprove. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found those totals include 30% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.

These results have remained little change over the past few months.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans approve of the president’s performance while 84% of Democrats disapprove. Among Independents, 39% approve while 53% disapprove.

Just 39% of college graduates approve while 50% without a degree do not.

The president earns positive reviews from 56% of rural voters, 47% of suburban voters, and 36% of urban voters.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of white voters approve along with 35% of Hispanic voters and 12% of Black voters.

When it comes to making decisions about re-opening, just 34% of voters trust government officials more than everyday Americans. More voters—43%—place their trust in the general public. Upper-income Americans, government employees, college graduates and Democrats alike are all more comfortable with the government making sweeping decisions. The reverse is true for lower- and middle-income Americans, private sector workers, retirees, those without a college degree, Republicans and independents.

Other recent data shows that 41% of voters believe shutting down businesses and locking down society did more harm than good. Additionally, 52% agree with Ronald Reagan’s assessment: the nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Those words continue to resonate with many Americans.

The implications of these findings were addressed in a Newsweek column by Scott Rasmussen. “Despite the fact that the public is anxious to re-open society, several Democratic governors are desperately clinging to their lockdown policies. Their efforts could help ensure the re-election of Donald Trump.”

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 14-16, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or by text while 238 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

 

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Biden 44% Trump 38%

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by six points– 44% to 38%. Seven percent (7%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 10% are undecided.

The candidates are essentially even among men and voters over 45. Biden leads by double digits among women and voters under 35.

Three weeks ago.  Biden was up by nine points. Two weeks ago, he led by eight. Last week, the lead had slipped to seven. This brings the race back to where it was in late March, when Biden enjoyed a five point advantage.

Thirty-eight percent (38%)  of voters nationwide believe it would be appropriate to continue the lockdowns in their own neighborhood and community.  However, 57% disagree. Most believe the rules and guidelines should be established locally.

Sixty-five percent (65%) are concerned that public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans. That total includes 39% who are Very Concerned.

Fifty-five percent (55%) believe the nation needs stricter immigration policies going forward.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of voters nationwide consider trade policies to be primarily a national security issue. However, most clearly see trade policy than raw economics.  Most voters (58%) say ensuring that important materials are produced in the United States is a higher priority than keeping costs down. Just 28% say keeping costs down and promoting economic growth matters more.

Finally, many voters are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 7-9, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 174 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied and the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

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Biden 46% Trump 39%

The latest Scott Rasmussen poll of 1,000 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by seven points– 46% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 8% are undecided.

Last week, Biden led by eight points. The week before that, he was up by nine. In late March, it was Biden 45% Trump 40%.

While the results suggest a close race in the fall, it is important to keep in mind the extraordinary circumstances of the coronavirus lockdowns. What happens in the coming months as American society re-opens is likely to have a significant impact on the race. In fact, it is likely that the way society is re-opened will be the decisive factor in November’s election.

Data released yesterday, showed that 49% of voters nationwide now fear the economic threat from the coronavirus more than the health threat. Forty-five percent (45%) take the opposite view and are more worried about the health threat. These numbers reflect a significant change over the past month. In late March, by a 55% to 38% margin, voters were more concerned about the health threat.

The survey also found that 26% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s an increase of three points from a  week ago and ten points from a month ago. Forty-six percent (46%) believe the worst is yet to come. That’s down from 60% earlier in the month.

Voters over 65, by a 40% to 32% margin, believe the worst is behind us. Younger voters are more pessimistic.

Perceptions of whether the worst is behind us or is still to come have a significant impact on perceptions of the overall threat. Among those who believe the worst is behind us, 68% are more worried about the economic threat. As for those who believe the worst is still to come, 57% are more worried about the health threat.

These results are consistent with other data showing that people are looking to loosen some of the restrictions. Voters nationwide are evenly divided as to whether the lockdowns should continue. And, they have come to recognize that it’s not simply a question of stay home to stay safe or go out and get sick. Voters recognize that there are significant mental and physical health risks associated with ongoing lockdowns. Those who know the latest data are more likely to support easing lockdown restrictions.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work.

The president’s job approval rating has held steady at 44%.

Scott Rasmussen is now providing virtual briefings about the impact of the pandemic on business, politics, and American society. If you’d like Scott to provide a briefing for your company or organization, please contact Shawn Hanks.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 30-May 2, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 179 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Biden 46% Trump 38%

April 28, 2020– The latest Scott Rasmussen poll of 1,000 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 46% to 38%. Six percent (6%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 9% are undecided.

That’s little changed from a week ago when a poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen for JustTheNews.com showed Biden with a nine-point advantage. In that poll, Biden led 49% to 40%. Interestingly, support for both candidates dropped a bit in the most recent poll.

In late March, it was Biden 45% Trump 40%.

While the results suggest a close race in the fall, it is important to keep in mind the extraordinary circumstances of the coronavirus lockdowns. What happens in the coming months as American society re-opens is likely to have a significant impact on the race. Currently, 23% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, an increase of seven points over the past two weeks.

Thirty-three percent (33%) believe the government has not yet gone far enough in responding to the pandemic. That figure is down eight points since late March.

Other polling shows that 51% of American voters favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work. Thirty-eight percent (38%) are opposed, and 10% are not sure. That question was framed in the context of the area that the respondents lived in. These numbers are not a call for a national rule, but a recognition that different dynamics exist in different communities.

Scott Rasmussen is now providing virtual briefings about the impact of the pandemic on business, politics, and American society. If you’d like Scott to provide a briefing for your company or organization, please contact Shawn Hanks.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 23-25, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 272 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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The Polls Weren’t Wrong in 2016–But The Analysis of the Polls Was Horrible

Contrary to popular myths, the national political polls in 2016 were very accurate. According to the Real Clear Politics average, Hillary Clinton was projected to win the popular vote by 3.3 percentage points and she actually won it by 2.1 percentage points. Ten of the last twelve national polls released were within two percentage points of the actual margin. One of the others overestimated Clinton’s margin by four points and one underestimated it by four points.

That’s about as accurate a projection as you could hope for!

However, while the polling was good, the analysis of the polling was not.

Many in the media and political worlds simply could not imagine a Clinton loss. Some looked at the polling, noted the margin of error, and assumed the Democratic nominee would win by far more than three percentage points. Some thought she could win a few traditionally Republican states while few imagined the reverse could happen.

The problem was not the polls, but the analysis.

This failure of polling analysis was not supported by the underlying data. Heading into Election Day, the Real Clear Politics projections showed that Clinton was clearly favored to win just 203 of the needed 270 Electoral College votes. Donald Trump was favored to win 164 and an astounding 171 were in the Toss-Up category. Reviewing the toss-up states at that time, I noted publicly that it was fairly easy to envision how Trump could reach 263 Electoral College votes.

That reality should have dented the overwhelming confidence of a Clinton victory expressed in the media and political worlds. Polling data showed a race close enough that a surprise in a single traditionally Democratic state could elect Donald Trump. But that possibility was largely ignored in media coverage of the race.

On Election Day, of course, then-candidate Trump stunned the political world by capturing three traditionally Democratic states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Once again, the surprise was more a failure of analysis than public polling. In Pennsylvania, the polling averages showed Clinton ahead by just 1.9 percentage points. In Michigan, she was up just 3.4 points. Both results were clearly in toss-up range. Additionally, in both states, the final public poll released showed Trump ahead.

The only true polling misfire was in Wisconsin, where Clinton was projected to win by 6.5 percentage points and Trump won by just under a point.

The bottom line is that the actual public polling in 2016 was far better than the pundit’s analysis of that polling data.

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Biden 45% Trump 40%

If the presidential election were held today, 45% of Registered Voters would vote for Democrat Joe Biden while 40% prefer Republican Donald Trump.

However, the survey conducted by Scott Rasmussen found that 70% of Trump’s supporters have a high level of interest in the election.  Just 61% of Biden’s voters say the same. Among those who have a high level of interest–and are most likely to vote–it’s Biden 47% Trump 46%.

Among all Registered voters living in Urban areas, Biden leads by a 60% to 23% margin. Trump leads by 19 points (50% to 31%) among Rural voters. The candidates are essential tied among Suburban voters with Biden at 44% and Trump at 43%.

Among Suburban voters with a high level of interest in the election, it’s Trump 48% Biden 47%. Biden’s margin among Urban voters slips to 32 points among those with a high level of interest (61% to 29%). Trump’s lead among interested Rural voters increases to 32 points (62% to 30%).

The survey also explored attitudes on the coronavirus pandemic.

On just about every question there is a wide partisan divide.

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The survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from March 26-28, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Approximately 72% of the survey respondents were selected at random from lists of Registered Voters. The remainder were selected through Random Digital Engagement. Most were contacted online while 247 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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