44% of Voters Think Biden Will Win, 43% Say Trump

Forty-four percent (44%) of Likely Voters nationwide believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election. A Political IQ national survey found that 43% believe President Trump will be re-elected.

Supporters of each candidate are very confident. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Trump voters believe he will win. Eighty percent (80%) of Biden supporters believe their candidate will emerge victorious.

Those numbers reflect little change since the summer. In July, 91% of Trump supporters expected victory along with 80% of Biden supporters.

Polling both by Scott Rasmussen and all polling averages show Biden with a lead nationally and in key states. The fact that many Trump supporters still expect victory may result from several factors. One is the believe that the polls are simply wrong (or even fake). For many, that’s the key lesson from 2016. However, the polls weren’t as bad as the legend that has grown up around that election.

Another reason for confidence among Trump supporters may be a belief in a strong comeback or a strong Republican turnout. Political IQ polls conducted by Scott Rasmussen have shown the president trailing narrowly in Florida and North Carolina. However, in both cases, the Strong Republican turnout model shows the president ahead. In Pennsylvania, the president pulls to within two points with a Strong Republican turnout. That’s close enough to be competitive. However, President Trump would likely have to win all three to be re-elected.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,240 Likely Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from October 8-10, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 198 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. The Likely Voter sample was derived from a larger sample of Registered Voters using screening questions and other factors. Certain quotas were applied to the larger sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Posted in Poll Results

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