Generic Ballot: Democrats 43% Republicans 36%

April 29, 2020–If the election for Congress were held today, 43% of voters nationwide say they would vote for the Democrat from their district while 36% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 4% would prefer some other candidate and 18% are not sure.

Republicans lead by six points among men, Democrats by 20 among women.

Last month, a Generic Ballot survey conducted  by Scott Rasmussen found Democrats with a nine-point lead: 48% to 39%. Last week, the numbers showed the Democrats with an 11-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot: 46% to 35%. It is possible that the numbers are shifting due to the dynamics of the pandemic and other issues. However, it is perhaps even more likely that these shifts reflect little more than statistical noise. Compared to the data from March, last week’s results showed the Democratic lead 2 points higher and this week’s numbers show that lead to be 2-points smaller.

All the results are similar to the actual eight point advantage the Democrats won in the 2018 mid-term elections.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 23-25, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 272 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

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