Card image cap

Looking ahead to Election 2018, the numbers are close enough for either party to end up in control of the House, the Senate or both. The final outcome will be determined by a combination of the races in play, the fundamentals in each race, and the strength of the political winds in November.To track all of this, I’ve rolled out a new service at ScottRasmussen.com  that will provide constantly updated Scoreboards for the Senate, House, and Governor’s races. In addition to the overall scoreboards, we

Card image cap

President Trump has perfected the art of antagonizing his opponents with provocative tweets. He demonstrated this skill recently in declaring that the tax reform act, by repealing the Obamacare mandate, had effectively repealed Obamacare.This generated a number of stories from left leaning pundits pointing out that there’s a lot more to Obamacare than the mandate. Sarah Kliff, writing for Vox.com, noted that many Republican voters believed the president and hoped that would bring an end to efforts to undo the rest of Obamacare.But, many Republicans in Congress seem intent on continuing to fight for repeal of the controversial law. A

Card image cap

Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it’s impossible to know how strong they’ll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect. In the Senate, the races to watch will be held in Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. Nevada’s Dean Heller is the only Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill are Democrats fighting to keep their job in states



Full Archive

IDDateTitleExcerpt
IDDateTitleExcerpt
541501-11-2018Election 2018 Scoreboards: Who's Up and Who's Down?
Looking ahead to Election 2018, the numbers are close enough for either party to end up in control of the House, the Senate or both. The final outcome will be determined by a combination of the races in play, the fundamentals in each race, and the strength of the political winds in November.To track all of this, I’ve rolled out a new service at ScottRasmussen.com  that will provide constantly updated Scoreboards for the Senate, House, and Governor’s races. In addition to the overall scoreboards, we

read more
538701-04-2018THE GROUND IS SHIFTING UNDER OBAMACARE
President Trump has perfected the art of antagonizing his opponents with provocative tweets. He demonstrated this skill recently in declaring that the tax reform act, by repealing the Obamacare mandate, had effectively repealed Obamacare.This generated a number of stories from left leaning pundits pointing out that there’s a lot more to Obamacare than the mandate. Sarah Kliff, writing for Vox.com, noted that many Republican voters believed the president and hoped that would bring an end to efforts to undo the rest of Obamacare.But, many Republicans in Congress seem intent on continuing to fight for repeal of the controversial law. A

read more
538212-31-2017A Viewers Guide to the Midterm Elections
Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it’s impossible to know how strong they’ll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect. In the Senate, the races to watch will be held in Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. Nevada’s Dean Heller is the only Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill are Democrats fighting to keep their job in states

read more
501412-21-2017Politics of Tax Reform Depends Upon Salesmanship of President Trump
Many Democratic political leaders have convinced themselves that the Republican tax reform bill will be a great boost for the Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. They could be right, but the outcome is far from certain. Instead, the political implications will be determined by how the economy performs and President Trump’s salesmanship.The economy matters most of all. If it sputters or tanks in 2018, nothing will save the Republican majorities in Congress. But if the economy keeps improving, President Trump will have a chance to turn tax reform into a political windfall for his party.Presidential salesmanship has always had

read more
491312-15-2017Republican Civil War Could Hand Senate to Democrats
With Doug Jones' victory in Alabama, Democrats now have at least a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in the 2018 elections. It's a difficult path to be sure, but it could happen.The first step will be for Democrats to successfully defend all of their Senate incumbents next November. That's not going to be easy because the list includes 10 running in states that voted for Donald Trump. But, the results from Alabama suggest that it could happen. If it does, all Democrats would need to win the Senate is to pick up a pair of GOP

read more
486712-07-201776 Years Ago, It Was A Woman Who First Addressed the Nation About Pearl Harbor
There are events in history that no one alive will ever forget. But time moves on and those who will never forget eventually leave this earth. The rest of us know it only from the history books.One of those events was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Only a handful of Americans alive today actually remember the day President Franklin Roosevelt said would forever live in infamy. Even fewer remember that the first Administration spokesperson to address the nation that day was not the president, but First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt.In those days, radio was the hot communications technology and just

read more
274011-23-2017What if Roy Moore Wins?
When Donald Trump appointed Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions to serve as Attorney General, it was widely assumed that his permanent replacement would be a Republican. But the scandals and allegations surrounding Republican nominee Roy Moore have challenged that assumption.It would be a stunning turn of events for a Democrat to win in a state Donald Trump won by 28 percentage points. If that happens, as I noted last week, Democrats might win control of the Senate in 2018.But what would it mean if Roy Moore wins?A few things are pretty obvious. First, it would indicate that the Democrats have no

read more
52511-16-2017Democrats Have a Clear Path to Senate Majority in 2018
Until recently, it looked like Republicans were almost certain to retain control of the U.S. Senate following the 2018 mid-term elections. Many commentators noted that Nancy Pelosi’s team might have a shot at winning control of the House. But the Senate was different. Only a third of the Senators stand for election each cycle and the GOP was protected by a very favorable electoral map.Only one GOP Senator (Nevada’s Dean Heller) is running for re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. The only other soft spot in the GOP lineup is Arizona, where Senator Jeff Flake’s fights with President

read more
52411-09-2017WILL TRUMP BECOME 4th STRAIGHT PRESIDENT TO LOSE CONGRESS?
Tuesday’s election results suggest that Democrats have a reasonable chance of winning control of the House in 2018. If that happens, Donald Trump would become the fourth consecutive president to enter the White House with his party in control of Congress and then lose Congress during his tenure.In some ways, this seems to be the new normal. After all, it’s a pattern that has existed for a full generation since a young Bill Clinton won the White House in 1992. But, it’s truly extraordinary in the longer arc of American history. In fact, prior to 1992, it had never even

read more
52311-02-2017America’s Founding Ideals Are Worth Fighting For
These are tough times to be optimistic about America. Terror attacks in New York City, mass shootings in Las Vegas, and campus violence against targeted speakers fill the news. Rather than addressing the problems, partisan politicos act as if each tragedy is merely a platform for their own talking points.Despite this, I am optimistic about America’s future. Pessimistic about our politics, to be sure, but optimistic about our nation.There are two core reasons for this optimism. The first is that politicians don’t lead the nation. There are countless more effective ways that we can work together in community and create

read more
52210-25-2017Freedom of Speech Does Not Guarantee Understanding
Daily Beast columnist Jay Michaelson is unhappy with America’s football fans.In a thoughtful column, he argues that “kneeling for the anthem is a sign of respect, not disrespect, for our country and the values it stands for.” He adds that “To protest—for whatever cause, left or right wing—is to make real the best ideals of America: freedom of speech, democracy, the rule of law. Protesting brings those ideals into reality.”But as players kneel in protest, America’s football fans have not been pleased. Ratings and attendance are down while public perceptions of the NFL have fallen dramatically.There are many reasons for

read more
52110-19-2017Trump Proving Politicians Not As Important As They Think They Are
Shortly after World War II, Congress passed a law requiring the federal government to assume responsibility for managing the economy. In 1961, President John F. Kennedy claimed that government stewardship was responsible for the post-War economic boom. In those heady days, there was even talk about how economists had learned to fine-tune the economy.Looking back, the hubris of the 1960s governing elite seems laughable. Studies have shown that the best economic models of that era failed to predict most of what actually happened. We know today that the post-War boom had more to do with pent-up demand and America’s global

read more
52010-12-2017The Gun Control Debate is Not About Guns
Every time a horrific event like the Las Vegas massacre takes place, it is followed by a frustrating and futile debate about the merits of gun control. People on both sides of the debate trot out talking points and talk right past each other without listening.Much of the frustration comes from the fact that everybody would like to do something to prevent such disasters from every happening again.  But, the overwhelming desire to do something is matched by the pragmatic reality that no new law, policy initiative, or government program could have prevented the gruesome events of Las Vegas. As

read more
51910-05-2017That Helpless, Hopeless Feeling
Horrific, sickening, tragic, are among the words I’ve heard used to describe the news from Las Vegas. But none of them really capture the reality that such acts are utterly beyond comprehension. As I write this, official sources are still looking for a motive, but no rational motive can possibly exist. Whatever made the killer take 58 lives made sense only in some delusional world most humans can’t come close to understanding.After the words and the images sink in, it still doesn’t seem real. But we want to know why! Who or what can we blame? What can we do

read more
51809-21-2017There is No Proper Mix of Government, Community, and Business
I grew up in suburbia, and have spent various parts of my life in small towns, a Southern city, and in rural Indiana. Moving may be a hassle, but new experiences in new locations provide wonderful opportunities to learn and explore. That’s certainly true as I adjust to life in New York City, a vastly different environment than anything I’ve tried before.Living in the city, my wife and I have encountered government as never before. We rely on the subway to get around, enjoy strolls through Central Park, routinely see police officers and traffic cops, and have heard about city

read more
51709-14-2017There’s More to Governing Than Government
There is a mistaken notion, deeply embedded in our national political dialogue, that society is naturally divided into public and private sectors. The public sector is thought of as the vehicle for governing society and looking out for the common good. The private sector is where people merely look out for themselves.Not surprisingly, this view is promoted aggressively by those in the public sector. In this false view of the world, governing is the responsibility of government alone. The vast majority of Americans who work and live in the private sector are told they should study the issues, get involved

read more
49609-12-2017The Freedom To Walk Away Holds Politicians Accountable
Moving to a new home is an all-American activity. Roughly one out of nine people do it every year. Many stay within the same state, but we’ll be among the nearly 5 million Americans who move across state lines to establish a new home.Some of our friends have been puzzled by the move. One noted that we managed to pick the only place that has a higher tax burden than our current home state of New Jersey. That’s true, of course, but there are offsetting benefits in terms of career, entertainment, and lifestyle opportunities. It may not be

read more
49708-31-2017The Deeper Currents of American Politics
Back when I was a pollster, I would explain that following the daily polls was like watching a heavy rain fall on the surface of a river. There’s a lot of action and noise and splashing around but nothing that gives you a real sense of where the river is going. For that, you must look beneath the surface where the current keeps moving steadily onward and the storm is barely noticed.The same logic applies to the state of American politics today. It’s easy to get caught up in the sound and fury of the daily news cycle, but that

read more
48908-24-2017By Obsessing About Extremes, Media Loses Touch With America
The America portrayed on the evening news is unrecognizable to most Americans.Rather than reflecting the realities of a complex and dynamic nation, the national news media seems to treat real events as little more than a Rorschach test for measuring what the political activists think is going on. Then, in solemn tones, the television presenters pass on the absurd interpretations that become a national narrative.In TV-Newsland, America is presented as a hopelessly divided nation where hate-filled people battle over how they can get the government to give them what they want. Extremists of all political persuasions are presented as reflecting

read more
49008-17-2017To Move Our Nation Forward, Lift Up America’s Founding Ideals
In the decade leading up to America’s War for Independence, much of the drama took place in and around Boston. Sam Adams was the ring-leader on the colonial side and public enemy number one to the British. He had been thinking about liberty and independence since he attended Harvard decades before. He was motivated partly because what we would now call the Regulatory State targeted his family because of their political views.Eventually, British troops were sent to occupy Boston and keep things from getting out of hand. Naturally, the occupying force was hated and the tension between colonists and Redcoats

read more
49108-14-2017White Supremacists, America Was Never Yours
The White Supremacists who marched in Charlottesville seemed to think that their movement is committed to taking America back. They are mistaken. They cannot take America back because it was never theirs in the first place.It’s true that the legacies of slavery and centuries of legalized racism have long tarnished our nation’s history. That reality has always stood in conflict with our nation’s founding ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. For too many years, white Americans simply ignored the contradiction that they didn’t want to see.That failure to confront evil did allow racists and White Supremacists to continue their hateful

read more
49208-10-2017Regionalization of Democratic Party Benefits GOP in Midterm Elections
The Democratic Party has, for the moment, become a regional party.Only 449 counties across the nation are reliably Democratic. Five times that many—2,226—are reliably Republican. The Democratic counties are generally found along the coasts and in large urban areas.Nowhere is the party’s abandonment of rural America more apparent than in West Virginia. For most of the twentieth century, this was a solidly Democratic state. In the first presidential election of the 21st century, however, George W. Bush carried the state and it’s voted Republican at the presidential level ever since. Last year, Donald Trump won the state with a crushing

read more
48807-27-2017Will Trump’s Low Approval Ratings Doom GOP in 2018?
In normal political times, a president with a 40% Job Approval rating would be a tremendous drag on his party in the midterm elections. But these are not normal times. A look back at what happened on Election Day last November suggests that President Trump’s low ratings will not necessarily doom his party in 2018.To begin with, just 38% of voters had a favorable opinion of Donald Trump on the day he was elected. And, only 40% said they would be optimistic if he won the presidency. Yet, despite that distinct lack of enthusiasm, 46% of all voters cast their

read more
49307-20-2017Remembering Apollo 1
On July 20, 1969 Neil Armstrong famously took “one small step for a man” and “one giant leap for mankind.” He and Buzz Aldrin stepped into the history books that day as the living embodiment of an amazing technological achievement. We’ll hear a lot more about that trip in the coming years as we approach the 50th anniversary of the first lunar landing.The story will be told of the U.S. responding to the Sputnik satellite and the fear that gripped many when Yuri Gagaran became the first human to orbit the earth. Our nation caught up when John Glenn took

read more
49407-13-2017The Netflix Revolution
While the nation’s political elites obsess over daily controversies of official Washington, a far more significant development is taking place on television screens across America. After years of steady growth, the number of subscribers to streaming video services like Netflix has topped the number of cable subscribers.ComScore reports that 51 million households now receive their television programming through what the industry calls Over-The-Top (OTT) television. They watch an average of 49 hours of streaming content per month. About a third of these households have dropped cable and satellite programming completely. Looking ahead, the streaming services are expected to continue growing

read more
51006-22-2017It's Not About Trump, It's About His Voters
In Election 2016, Democrats seemed to assume that the unpopularity of Donald Trump would be enough to keep him out of the White House. It’s true that most Americans viewed him unfavorably, but the same was also true of Hillary Clinton. Given such an unappealing choice, millions of voters decided that Trump was the lesser of two evils.In a series of 2017 special elections, Democrats have continued to make the same mistake. They look at the president’s low Job Approval ratings and assume that simply opposing President Trump should be sufficient to win elections. That was the theory behind Tuesday’s

read more
51106-08-2017Ending the Federal Monopoly on Regulation
Such hypocrisy is, of course, bi-partisan. Republicans who lauded state resistance to Obamacare are deeply troubled by state and local resistance to the Trump Administration on immigration and other issues.The blatant hypocrisy is one of many factors contributing to a toxic political dialogue. The only way to reduce both the hypocrisy and the political tension is to do something that neither party wants to do when their team is in charge—disperse power more broadly.No matter how much the political class wishes it were true, one-size fits all solutions simply can’t work in a wonderfully diverse society like the United States.

read more
51206-01-2017Two Ways of Looking At America
There are two ways of looking at America.One approach offers hope for a bright future, focuses on common ground shared by most Americans, and is grounded in pragmatism and reality. The other offers a depressing outlook, encourages polarization, and is grounded in ideology and fantasy.The positive approach is built upon America’s founding ideals of freedom, self-governance, and equality. At its core is a belief that the people are in charge and that the culture leads society. It acknowledges a role for government, but not the lead role. It recognizes that change begins outside the political process when people use their

read more
51305-10-2017Pessimistic About Politics, Optimistic About America
It’s not fashionable to say these days, but I am very optimistic about America’s future. I believe that our nation’s best days are still to come and that our children and grandchildren will have much better lives than we have enjoyed.I am optimistic despite believing that our nation’s political system is badly broken.My personal journey from pessimism about politics to optimism about America took more than a decade. Figuring out how to explain it took an additional two years of writing and the end result is my new book, Politics Has Failed: America Will Not. Fox News analyst Juan Williams

read more
51404-27-2017Lessons In Democracy Learned By Juror Number 2
Like most Americans, I groaned when the mail included a summons to jury duty. Having been there before, I envisioned three days of wasted time in a bland room with lousy internet service. Instead, I served on a jury and came away with a renewed confidence in America’s tradition of self-governance.My service as Juror Number 2 took place in Freehold, New Jersey near a Battle of Monmouth monument. At first, I inwardly chuckled when the judge cited the history of the place to convince us of the importance of the jury system. Being a history buff, I knew the battle

read more
51504-13-2017Thank You Jackie Robinson
Seventy years ago this Saturday, Jackie Robinson made history by breaking the Major League color barrier. MVP awards, All-Star selections, and championships recognized his skills as a player. His very presence dramatically changed the world of baseball. Within a few months, other teams began adding black ballplayers. Over the following 12 seasons, eight of the National League MVP awards were won by black men.Facing enormous hostility from fans and other teams, Robinson and his wife consistently demonstrated the power of nonviolent resistance years before the world ever heard of Martin Luther King Jr.Major League Baseball appropriately honored his larger legacy

read more
51604-06-2017Free Local Communities to Set Their Own Minimum Wage
Last week, Iowa Governor Terry Branstad signed a bill preventing local governments from raising the minimum wage above the statewide level of $7.25 per hour. The bill was a response to four counties passing local laws boosting the minimum to $10.10 per hour or higher. Ballotpedia.org reports that similar battles between state and local authorities to set wage and employment guidelines have taken place around the country.Rather than blocking local governments from setting their own minimum wage standards, state governments should encourage them to do so.At the most basic level, that’s a recognition that no two communities are identical. Of

read more