Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 43% Republicans 39%

If the election were held today,  43% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 39% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 5% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

Democrats lead by a wide margin, 50% to 33%, among voters who are online “almost constantly.” Republicans have a narrow edge, 42% to 39% among the rest of the nation’s voters. That’s consistent with the fact that 42% of those online constantly are Democrats. Just 27% align with the GOP.

Among all Democrats, 91% say they would vote for their party’s candidate. Just 85% of Republicans say the same. Independent voters are evenly divided, with 35% undecided. Twelve percent (12%) of Independent voters say they would prefer a third candidate option.

The relative weakness in Republican partisan loyalty can be traced to the small wing of the party that prefers Traditional Republican policy positions. Among these old-school Republicans, just 55% plan to vote for the GOP candidate. Seventeen percent (17%) of these voters say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate, 9% are not sure, and 19% are undecided.

Among those who prefer a candidate promoting Trump like policies, 90% plan to vote for the Republican candidate. They remain the dominant wing of the party.

This reflects a long-running divide in the GOP.  In the 2012 Republican presidential primaries, Tea Party Republicans were committed to voting for whoever won the party’s nomination. Traditional Republicans at that time were far more likely to abandon the party if their preferred candidate didn’t win the nomination.

Looking ahead to 2022, this dynamic can play out in many ways. If the traditional Republicans fail to support their party’s Congressional candidates, this divide could significantly limit Republican midterm gains. On the other hand, it is quite possible that the policies of the Biden Administration will push many of these traditional Republicans to support GOP candidates. Following President Biden’s first month in office, there was a significant increase in the number of people believing the country will become even more polarized.

Other recent polling shows that 41% Believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 32% believe the worst is yet to come. That’s unchanged over the past six weeks. Prior to that, the arrival of COVID vaccines spurred a significant growth in confidence. However, that growth has stalled.

Additionally, 28% say their finances are getting better while 21% Say Worse. That, too, is little changed. Economic confidence at this time is closely tied to confidence that we are moving beyond the pandemic.

On another topic, 25% say requiring Photo ID’s is a form of voter suppression. Sixty-six percent (66% Disagree).

Support for policies of a certain candidate were determined by the following question: Suppose you had a choice between four presidential candidates. All four had equal skills and temperament. Would you prefer a Republican who supported policies like President Trump, a more traditional Republican, a Democrat who supported policies similar to Senator Bernie Sanders, or a more traditional Democrat?

Over the past six months, responses to this question show that, on the GOP side of the aisle, Trump policies are strongly preferred over a traditional Republican. Democrats, on the other hand, are even divided between those who favor traditional Democrats or candidates pursuing Sanders’ policies.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 15-17, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 261 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

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