The latest Scott Rasmussen poll of 1,000 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by seven points– 46% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 8% are undecided.
Last week, Biden led by eight points. The week before that, he was up by nine. In late March, it was Biden 45% Trump 40%.
While the results suggest a close race in the fall, it is important to keep in mind the extraordinary circumstances of the coronavirus lockdowns. What happens in the coming months as American society re-opens is likely to have a significant impact on the race. In fact, it is likely that the way society is re-opened will be the decisive factor in November’s election.
Data released yesterday, showed that 49% of voters nationwide now fear the economic threat from the coronavirus more than the health threat. Forty-five percent (45%) take the opposite view and are more worried about the health threat. These numbers reflect a significant change over the past month. In late March, by a 55% to 38% margin, voters were more concerned about the health threat.
The survey also found that 26% of voters now believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. That’s an increase of three points from a week ago and ten points from a month ago. Forty-six percent (46%) believe the worst is yet to come. That’s down from 60% earlier in the month.
Voters over 65, by a 40% to 32% margin, believe the worst is behind us. Younger voters are more pessimistic.
Perceptions of whether the worst is behind us or is still to come have a significant impact on perceptions of the overall threat. Among those who believe the worst is behind us, 68% are more worried about the economic threat. As for those who believe the worst is still to come, 57% are more worried about the health threat.
These results are consistent with other data showing that people are looking to loosen some of the restrictions. Voters nationwide are evenly divided as to whether the lockdowns should continue. And, they have come to recognize that it’s not simply a question of stay home to stay safe or go out and get sick. Voters recognize that there are significant mental and physical health risks associated with ongoing lockdowns. Those who know the latest data are more likely to support easing lockdown restrictions.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters favor a proposal that would allow all who are not sick or vulnerable in their area to return to work.
The president’s job approval rating has held steady at 44%.
Scott Rasmussen is now providing virtual briefings about the impact of the pandemic on business, politics, and American society. If you’d like Scott to provide a briefing for your company or organization, please contact Shawn Hanks.
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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 30-May 2, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 179 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied, and the overall sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.