Biden 47% Trump 39%

The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey of 1,200 Registered Voters shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points– 47% to 39%. Six percent (6%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 7% are undecided.

This is a slight improvement for the president from two weeks ago when he trailed Biden by 12. The week before that, it was Biden by ten.

There are two basic ways to assess these numbers. The first is that the difference are merely statistical noise–this latest survey is two points closer than the ten-point margin and the previous survey was two points higher.

The other approach is to consider that the two previous polls were the biggest leads enjoyed by Biden all year. Prior to that, Biden’s lead has ranged between five and nine points since late March. It may be that Biden enjoyed a modest bounce in the polls as the Civil Rights issues initially emerged and that the bounce has now faded.

The president does better among private sector workers than government employees. Within the private sector, he does better among the self-employed rather than those who work for someone else.

Many voters dismiss polls they don’t like because they are convinced the polls were wrong in 2016. Actually, the polls were pretty good. However, the analysis and interpretation of those polls was horrible.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 25-27, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 132 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

 

NOTE: Partisan breakdown of the sample: Democrats 37% Republicans 32% Other 31%.

Posted in Poll Results

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