Generic Ballot: Republicans 44% Democrats 38%

Posted on December 17, 2021 | by Staff Writer

Republicans have opened a six point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. The latest Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 44% of Registered Voters would currently vote for the Republican from their district while 38% would vote for the Democrat. Nine percent (9%) would not vote and 10% are not sure.

This is the first Scott Rasmussen survey of the 2022 cycle to include “leaners.” Those are people who initially express no preference for either party. However, on a follow-up question, they indicate a preference if they had to make a choice right now.

Without leaners, the Republican advantage on this latest survey was three percentage points (38% to 35). That’s unchanged from late November, but up two since late October.

The trend throughout 2022 has clearly favored the GOP. In Scott Rasmussen’s April survey, Democrats enjoyed a four-point advantage. However, President Biden’s party has not led since September.

This trend is consistent with the ongoing series of party affiliation data tracked by Gallup. In April, Democrats had a five-point advantage. The latest numbers, from November, show a nine-point swing in favor of the GOP. Currently, 31% of adults identify with the Republicans while 27% consider themselves Democrats.

The decline in support for Democrats likely has many causes. In terms of legislation, the president’s Build Back Better plan is weighed down by a large number of extraordinarily unpopular provisions. Additionally, Democrats are seen as a bigger threat to democracy than Republicans. In their push for election reform, Democrats have sought legislation to outlaw three election reforms that are supported by more than 80 percent of voters.

Beyond specific legislation, there are many broader concerns. Most voters recognize that, compared to pre-pandemic numbers, there are far fewer Americans with a job these days. Politically, this is a very challenging issue for Democrats. Two-thirds of voters say economic issues are more important than cultural issues. Yet only 37% believe that Democratic politicians and activists are primarily interested in economic issues.

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Note: Neither Scott Rasmussen, ScottRasmussen.com, nor RMG Research, Inc. have any affiliation with Rasmussen Reports. While Scott Rasmussen founded that firm, he left more than seven years ago and has had no involvement since that time.

Question:

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican from your district, or the Democrat from your district? [If “Other”/”Not sure”] Okay, if you had to make a choice right now, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican or the Democrat from your district?

44% Republican

38% Democrat

9% Would not vote

10% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on December 8-10, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Voter Attitudes on America & the Role of Government Are Controversial in Official Washington

Posted on November 27, 2021 | by Staff Writer

Voters continue to strongly hold attitudes and beliefs that are considered controversial or oppose by those in official Washington.

84% believe it would be a good idea to place term limits on members of Congress.
75% agree that “America was founded on the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Our nation has a tragic history of racial injustice, but we have made and continue to make progress.”
75% believe the federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests.
74% agree that “Equality of opportunity is a fundamental American principle; equality of outcome is not.”
When it comes to making important decisions about the nation’s future, 69% trust everyday Americans more than government leaders.
67% recognize that just about all positive change in America begins outside of America’s political system.
68% think it is better when governing decisions are made by state and local governments rather than the federal government.

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Question:

Please Let me know if you agree or disagree with each of the following statements:

It would be a good idea to place term limits on members of Congress.

59% Strongly approve

25% Somewhat approve

5% Somewhat disapprove

2% Strongly disapprove

9% Not sure

Equality of opportunity is a fundamental American principle; equality of outcome is not.

38% Strongly approve

36% Somewhat approve

9% Somewhat disapprove

4% Strongly disapprove

13% Not sure

America was founded on the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance. Our nation has a tragic history of racial injustice, but we have made and continue to make progress.

36% Strongly approve

39% Somewhat approve

14% Somewhat disapprove

5% Strongly disapprove

6% Not sure

Just about all positive change in America begins outside of America’s political system.

31% Strongly approve

36% Somewhat approve

11% Somewhat disapprove

5% Strongly disapprove

17% Not sure

The federal government is a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests.

42% Strongly approve

33% Somewhat approve

12% Somewhat disapprove

4% Strongly disapprove

8% Not sure

When it comes to making important decisions about the nation’s future, I trust everyday Americans more than government leaders.

39% Strongly approve

30% Somewhat approve

16% Somewhat disapprove

4% Strongly disapprove

11% Not sure

It is better when governing decisions are made by state and local governments rather than the federal government

29% Strongly approve

39% Somewhat approve

13% Somewhat disapprove

4% Strongly disapprove

16% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on November 17-18, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Ballot: GOP 41% Dems 40%

Posted on November 9, 2021 | by Staff Writer

If the midterm elections were held today, 41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Republican from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Those numbers are unchanged since mid-October. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 5% would vote for some other candidate while 13% are not sure.

The survey was conducted just prior to last week’s elections in Virginia. The survey is of Registered Voters rather than Likely Voters. In last week’s elections, conservative and Republican voters were more likely than others to cast a ballot. If that enthusiasm advantage continues into the midterm elections, the numbers suggest the GOP would win a sizable victory in 2022.

A Scott Rasmussen Election Night survey in Virginia showed that 81% of Virginia voters believe photo IDs should be required for voting; 71% of Youngkin voters believe you can support Trump policies without supporting Trump while 61% of McAuliffe voters disagree; and, 83% of Virginia voters agree that “America was founded on the ideals of freedom, equality, and self-governance.”

National voter surveys found that four key election reforms are supported by more than 80% of voters. These include requirements to remove people who have died or moved from voter registration lists; requiring all voters to show photo ID before casting a ballot; wanting all ballots received by Election Day; and, having all voting machines made in the United States.

On another topic, 40% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 30% believe the worst is yet to come. Optimism on this front has been growing over the past month.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of voters are close to resuming their normal life in terms of going out socially, traveling, and interacting with others in person. The hesitance of those who have been vaccinated to resume normal activities may be one factor driving economic challenges.

Currently 45% of voters believe the U.S. is in a recession. Large majorities have experienced sharp inflation and supply chain issues.

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Question:

If elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican from your district, or the Democrat from your district?

41% Republican

40% Democrat

5% Other

13% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on October 28-30, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

82% Favor Term Limits for Members of Congress

Posted on October 11, 2021 | by Laura Lington

Eighty-two percent (82%) of voters believe it would be a good idea to place term limits on Members of Congress. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 9% disagree and 9% are not sure.

The totals include 53% who Strongly Agree that placing term limits on Members of Congress would be a good idea. Just 3% who Strongly Disagree.

This is one of the few political issues that unites voters from every corner of the nation. Term limits are supported by at least two-thirds (68%) of every measured demographic group.

From a partisan perspective, 87% of Republicans favor term limits along with 83% of Democrats and 78% of Independent voters.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on October 5-6, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

77% Expect Reconciliation Bill Will Include “Inappropriate” Provisions Inserted by Lobbyists

Posted on September 25, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters expect that the reconciliation bill will include inappropriate provisions inserted by lobbyists. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that 80% think it’s likely that some Members of Congress would insert special favors for their donors that couldn’t pass if others knew about them.

Those fears help explain why 81% of voters believe Congress needs time to read the bill before voting. A solid majority of voters think Congress should have at least a week to review the legislation before voting.

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* If Congress is not given time to review the final bill, how likely is it that the reconciliation bill will include inappropriate provisions inserted by lobbyists?

52% Very likely

25% Somewhat likely

7% Not very likely

3% Not at all likely

12% Not sure

* Okay… if Congress is not given time to review the final bill, how likely is it that some Members of Congress would insert special favors for their donors that couldn’t pass if others knew about them?

53% Very likely

27% Somewhat likely

7% Not very likely

3% Not at all likely

10% Not sure

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 16-18, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 263 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

81% Think Congress Needs Time to Read the Reconciliation Bill Before Voting; Solid Majority Believes at Least a Week Should Be Provided

Posted on September 21, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Eighty-one percent (81%) of voters believe Members of Congress should be given time to read the reconciliation bill before voting on it. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 8% disagree and 11% are not sure.

Among those who believe members should have time to read the bill, 76% think at least a week should be allowed. Fourteen percent (14%) believe 72-hours should be sufficient while 7% think 24-hours is long enough.

The legislation is currently being drafted. The final document is likely to be thousands of pages long.

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* Congress is considering a “reconciliation plan” that would increase federal spending by $3.5 trillion. The bill has not been finalized, but it could be thousands of pages. When it is complete, should Members of Congress be given time to review the bill before voting on it?

81% Yes

8% No

11% Not sure

* [If yes to prior question] How much time should Members of Congress be given to review the final reconciliation bill before voting?

7% 24 hours

14% 3 days

29% A week

20% Two weeks

27% More than two weeks

4% Not sure

Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Given a Choice, 40% Want Both Infrastructure and Reconciliation Bills to Pass; 38% Want Both to Be Rejected

Posted on September 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Voters are evenly divided when given a choice between passing both the bi-partisan infrastructure legislation and the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% of Registered Voters nationwide would prefer to pass both bills while 38% would like to see both rejected.

Among those most motivated to vote in the midterm elections, 42% would like both bills to pass and 43% would prefer that both fail.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats would like both bills to pass while 62% of Republicans want both to be rejected. Among Independent voters, 31% want both to pass and 38% don’t want either to pass.

Individually, a plurality of voters support both pieces of legislation. By a 46% to 27% margin, voters would like to see the House pass the Senate-approved infrastructure plan. By a narrower 47% to 40% margin, voters tend to favor the reconciliation bill as well.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from September 10-11, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 239 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Generic Congressional Ballot: GOP 40% Dems 40%

Posted on September 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Following President Biden’s speech and new COVID mandates, the Generic Congressional Ballot remains essentially unchanged. The latest Scott Rasmussen poll shows that, if the election were held today, 40% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican.

Those numbers are unchanged since late August. In five surveys conducted earlier in the year, Democrats led by one-to-four percentage points.

Six percent (6%) say they will vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

Enthusiasm for voting increased across the board following the president’s speech.

Among those who are Very Motivated to vote, the Republicans lead by a 47% to 44% margin. That’s little changed from a month ago. The GOP advantage stems largely from the fact that voters who prefer policies of President Trump are more motivated to vote than others.

Among all Registered voters, Republicans have a modest 30% to 25% advantage.

Democrats have a huge lead among urban voters matched by a huge Republican lead among rural voters. Suburban voters are evenly divided.

Republicans lead among voters who are at least 55. Democrats lead among younger voters.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Vice President Harris: 46% Favorable 44% Unfavorable

Posted on September 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by 46% of the nation’s voters and unfavorably by 44%. A Scott Rasmussen national survey also found that the four top Congressional leaders are all “underwater” in their ratings

Nancy Pelosi: Favorable 39% Unfavorable 50%
Kevin McCarthy: Favorable 28% Unfavorable 35%
Chuck Schumer: Favorable 36% Unfavorable 39%
Mitch McConnell: Favorable 31% Unfavorable 48%

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 8, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Following Biden Speech, Interest in Midterm Elections Up Across the Board

Posted on September 12, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Following President Biden’s speech announcing new COVID mandates, 63% of Registered Voters feel Very Motivated to cast a ballot in next year’s midterm elections. That’s up five points from a Scott Rasmussen national survey conducted in late August.

The increased enthusiasm was found across the board.

Voters who prefer policies like those of former President Trump continue to have the highest level of motivation. Seventy percent (75%) of these populist voters are Very Motivated, up five points from the previous survey.
Among the smaller number who prefer traditional Republican policies, 56% are now Very Motivated, up six.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) of those who prefer policies like those of Senator Bernie Sanders, up seven.
Sixty-six percent (66%) of those who prefer traditional Democratic candidates are now Very Motivated, up five.

Overall, 72% of Republicans are Very Motivated along with 69% of Democrats.

However, among independent voters, 77% of those who lean Republican are Very Motivated to cast a ballot in the midterms. Just 57% of those who lean towards the Democrats are that enthusiastic.

The survey was conducted on the Friday and Saturday following the president’s speech. It will be interesting to see if the new level of interest is just a temporary blip or a lasting change.

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Methodology

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Tied Among Registered Voters; However, Among Very Motivated Voters GOP Has 5-Point Lead

Posted on September 1, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 40% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican. The latest Scott Rasmussen poll is the first time the parties have been even on this basic measure of the political environment. In five earlier surveys, Democrats led by one-to-four percentage points.

At the beginning of August, Democrats held a 42% to 40% advantage.

This month, for the first time, the survey asked about enthusiasm for voting in the midterm elections. Among those who are Very Motivated to vote, the Republicans lead by a 48% to 43% margin. This five-point edge stems largely from the fact that voters who prefer policies of President Trump are more motivated to vote than others.

Among voters who prefer Traditional Republican policies, just 55% are committed to voting for a GOP candidate. Sixteen percent (16%) say they would vote for a Democrat. However, those who want Traditional GOP policies are significantly less motivated than other voters.

The survey was conducted at a time when the Biden Administration is struggling on many fronts. As a result, it is impossible to know whether the shifts in the generic ballot reflect merely a temporary blip or are the beginning of a longer-term trend.

One major challenge for the president is that just 45% of voters have confidence in the ability of the Biden Administration to keep America safe. Following the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, 49% of all voters believe that our enemies view us as weaker than before. Just 21% disagree.

The situation at the Southern border may also be a factor in the general lack of confidence. Just 28% of voters believe the federal government today is seriously trying to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration. There is a strong belief that many of those crossing the border illegally are drug dealers, human traffickers, and more.

Adding to the president’s burden, pessimism about the pandemic is growing again. Just 25% of voters believe the worst is behind us. That’s down 31 points over the past three months and the lowest level of optimism measured since the vaccines became available.

On top of all that, and perhaps because of the above issues, economic confidence has fallen.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 26-29, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 236 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Most Believe Green New Deal Will Increase Energy Costs and Reduce America’s Energy Independence

Posted on August 14, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Among voters who have heard of the Green New Deal, 63% think it will lead to higher electricity and gasoline prices. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that just 17% think higher costs are unlikely and 19% are not sure.

Those totals include 37% who say higher energy costs are Very Likely and 5% who say Not at All Likely.

Also, 53% believe the Green New Deal will end American energy independence and force our nation to rely upon other countries to supply our energy needs. Twenty-nine percent (29%) consider that unlikely and 17% are not sure.

Those totals include 29% who say the loss of energy independence is Very Likely and 12% who say Not at All Likely.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are more skeptical of the Green New Deal’s impact than Democrats. Still, though, a majority of Democrats think the Green New Deal will lead to higher energy prices. And, those in President Biden’s party are evenly divided as to whether or not those policies will end America’s energy independence.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen from August 4-9, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Ballot: Democrats 42% Republicans 40%

Posted on August 11, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 42% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican. Those numbers are little changed since mid-July. In fact, the numbers have held steady for months.

Democrats enjoy a massive 62% to 24% advantage among urban voters. Republicans lead by 8 percentage points among suburban voters and by 13 among rural voters.

Not surprisingly, voters are also divided as to who they trust on election reform issues. Thirty-six percent (36%) trust the Democrats, 32% trust the GOP, and 22% don’t trust either party.

Other data highlights several challenges facing the Democrats as they look to the midterms.

Given a choice, 68% of voters prefer a Congressional candidate who believed that all voters should be required to show photo ID before casting a ballot. Just 19% would cast their ballot for a candidate who voted to ban the use of photo ID requirements. That ban is included in the “For the People Act,” legislation supported by virtually every Democrat in Congress.

That legislation also runs afoul of the strong public support for having all mail-in ballots received by Election Day.

On the economic front, the collapse in confidence concerning the pandemic has not dented public perceptions of their personal finances. However, despite assurances to the contrary, 61% of voters believe the Biden Administration will raise taxes on the middle class. Additionally, 59% believe an increase in government spending leads to inflation.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 5-7, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 236 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Voters Think Green New Deal More Likely to Destroy Economy Than End Climate Change

Posted on July 27, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

The Green New Deal is a hot topic in official Washington, but more than a third of all voters have either never heard of it (24%) or don’t know enough to have an opinion about it.

Overall, a Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 35% of voters have a favorable opinion of the concept while 30% have an unfavorable view. Those totals include 15% with a Very Favorable opinion of the Green New Deal and 22% with a Very Unfavorable view.

Among those who have heard of the legislative concept, 49% believe it’s at least somewhat likely to destroy the U.S. economy. Thirty-seven percent (37%) disagree and 13% are not sure.

Only 38% think the plan is even somewhat likely to stop climate change. Forty-nine percent (49%) say it is unlikely to achieve that goal.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from July 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 271were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

47% Approve of Dems in Congress; 41% Say Same of GOP

Posted on July 7, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters nationwide approve of the way Democrats in Congress have performed their role. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 41% approve of the performance of Republicans in Congress.

Those totals include 20% who Strongly Approve of the Democrats and 11% who Strongly Approve of the Republicans.

Among those who support Trump-like policies, 72% approve of the Republicans in Congress. As for those who support traditional Republican policies, 61% provide such a positive review.

Among those who support Sanders-like policies, 75% approve of the Democrats in Congress. Among those who prefer traditional Democratic policies, 86% offer their approval.

It is interesting to note that traditional Republicans are somewhat less pleased with Republicans in Congress than the more populist voters who prefer Trump-like policies. The reverse dynamic is found among Democrats–their populist voters offer somewhat less approval.

In tracking going back to last October, the number preferring Trump-like policies is consistently two to three times as large as the number favoring traditional GOP. On the other hand, the two wings of the Democratic party are always just about evenly divided.

Among Independent voters, 31% have no opinion of either the Republicans or Democrats in Congress. Twenty-seven percent (27%) approve of the Democrats and 21% say the same about Republicans.

Voters with a college degree are more likely to approve of Democrats rather than Republicans in Congress. The opposite is true for those without a college degree.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen on June 29-30, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Ballot: Democrats 41% Republicans 38%

Posted on June 30, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 38% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 6% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

In early May, the Democrats were up by just a single point (41% to 40%). The month before, President Biden’s party enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

A big wild card in the midterm elections will be independent voters. Currently, 19% of them favor the GOP and 11% would vote for a Democrat. However, 70% would either vote for some other candidate (23%) or are undecided (47%). As always, undecided voters have two decisions to make. The first is whether or not to vote, the second is for whom.

Scott Rasmussen’s most recent column looks at why voters distrust government experts. One stunning figure in the column is that 55% of voters believe that letting government bureaucrats set rules without approval of Congress or voters is a major threat to democracy.

One major example of the underlying distrust can be found in reaction the pandemic lab-leak theory. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that US Government Officials actively tried to cover-up that theory.

Other recent polls show that 32% say their Personal Finances are getting better while 28% have the opposite view. Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters believe most executives of giant corporations favor Democrats. Twenty-nine percent (29%) think they prefer the GOP.

Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from June 22-24, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 205 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 41% Republican 40%

Posted on May 13, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 41% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 40% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 6% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

That’s a bit closer than last month when Democrats enjoyed a four-point advantage, 43% to 39%.

The tightening results from growing loyalty among GOP voters. Last month, just 85% of GOP voters said they would vote for the Republican from their district. That’s up to 91% now, a figure that matches Democratic support for their party’s candidate.

Just 3% of GOP voters now say they’d vote for the Democrat from their district. That’s down from 6% a month ago.

Independent voters remain evenly divided in both surveys.

As with last month, Democrats lead by a wide margin, 51% to 32%, among voters who are online “almost constantly.” Republicans lead among the rest of the nation’s voters by a 43% to 36% margin. That’s consistent with the fact that 42% of those online constantly are Democrats. Just 27% align with the GOP.

It is impossible to know at this point whether these new numbers reflect a real tightening of the race or are merely statistical noise.

Other recent survey results show that 70% of voters view immigration and border control as a national security issue. Overall, 63% of voters believe that legal immigration is good for the United States while illegal immigration is bad. Just 14% believe both legal and illegal immigration are bad for the nation while 11% believe both are good.

Additionally, 58% of voters believe that drug cartels have more control of the Southern border than the U.S. government. On top of that, 52% believe the Biden Administration is making it too easy for illegal immigrants to enter the nation. Just 28% disagree.

On a different topic, 46% of voters nationwide believe that America is a racist nation. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and 14% are not sure.

Finally, by a 49% to 29% margin, voters prefer a more focused $600 Billion infrastructure plan rather than the president’s $1.9 trillion approach.

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Methodology

The online survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen from May 6-8, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 43% Republicans 39%

Posted on April 19, 2021 | by Scott Rasmussen

If the election were held today, 43% of Registered Voters would vote for the Democrat from their Congressional District while 39% would vote for the Republican. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 5% would vote for some other candidate while 14% are not sure.

Democrats lead by a wide margin, 50% to 33%, among voters who are online “almost constantly.” Republicans have a narrow edge, 42% to 39% among the rest of the nation’s voters. That’s consistent with the fact that 42% of those online constantly are Democrats. Just 27% align with the GOP.

Among all Democrats, 91% say they would vote for their party’s candidate. Just 85% of Republicans say the same. Independent voters are evenly divided, with 35% undecided. Twelve percent (12%) of Independent voters say they would prefer a third candidate option.

The relative weakness in Republican partisan loyalty can be traced to the small wing of the party that prefers Traditional Republican policy positions. Among these old-school Republicans, just 55% plan to vote for the GOP candidate. Seventeen percent (17%) of these voters say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate, 9% are not sure, and 19% are undecided.

Among those who prefer a candidate promoting Trump like policies, 90% plan to vote for the Republican candidate. They remain the dominant wing of the party.

This reflects a long-running divide in the GOP. In the 2012 Republican presidential primaries, Tea Party Republicans were committed to voting for whoever won the party’s nomination. Traditional Republicans at that time were far more likely to abandon the party if their preferred candidate didn’t win the nomination.

Looking ahead to 2022, this dynamic can play out in many ways. If the traditional Republicans fail to support their party’s Congressional candidates, this divide could significantly limit Republican midterm gains. On the other hand, it is quite possible that the policies of the Biden Administration will push many of these traditional Republicans to support GOP candidates. Following President Biden’s first month in office, there was a significant increase in the number of people believing the country will become even more polarized.

Other recent polling shows that 41% Believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us while 32% believe the worst is yet to come. That’s unchanged over the past six weeks. Prior to that, the arrival of COVID vaccines spurred a significant growth in confidence. However, that growth has stalled.

Additionally, 28% say their finances are getting better while 21% Say Worse. That, too, is little changed. Economic confidence at this time is closely tied to confidence that we are moving beyond the pandemic.

On another topic, 25% say requiring Photo ID’s is a form of voter suppression. Sixty-six percent (66% Disagree).

Support for policies of a certain candidate were determined by the following question: Suppose you had a choice between four presidential candidates. All four had equal skills and temperament. Would you prefer a Republican who supported policies like President Trump, a more traditional Republican, a Democrat who supported policies similar to Senator Bernie Sanders, or a more traditional Democrat?

Over the past six months, responses to this question show that, on the GOP side of the aisle, Trump policies are strongly preferred over a traditional Republican. Democrats, on the other hand, are even divided between those who favor traditional Democrats or candidates pursuing Sanders’ policies.

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Methodology

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from April 15-17, 2021. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 261 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Online respondents were selected from a list of Registered Voters and through a process of Random Digital Engagement. Certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, internet usage, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.

Just 14% of Voters Want Congress to Stop Spending Now

Posted on May 12, 2020 | by Scott Rasmussen

Just 14% of voters believe Congress should stop spending money on new programs at this time. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 73% believe the federal government should continue to provide additional financial support for businesses and individuals directly impacted by the shutdown.

Support for such spending comes from 82% of Democrats, 71% of Independents, and 63% of Republicans.

The results are broadly consistent with other data showing that 64% believe the government should be required to compensate business owners for any losses caused by the government ordered shutdown.

Strong support for new government spending is a rarity in American politics. In this case, the support likely exists because of the connection with government actions that caused the economic harm. Additional research will be needed to determine whether there is public support for spending beyond providing compensation for those harmed by the lockdowns.

That could emerge as a significant dividing line in Congressional debates concerning next steps. Early indications are that House Democrats envision this as a time to enact a broader level of new spending. Some Republicans think it’s time to stop all new spending while others are searching for a way to define meaningful limits to preserve some measure of fiscal discipline.

If Republicans do not come to the table with a plan, however, 58% of voters are ready for President Trump to make a deal with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Just 18% are opposed while 23% are not sure. If Republicans won’t support any new spending, even Republican voters, by a 45% to 31% margin, want the president to make a deal with Pelosi.

Other recent polling shows that 60% of voters nationwide believe every business that establishes safe social distancing protocols should be allowed to open. These numbers cut strongly against the narrative that voters remain committed to continuing the lockdowns. I take a look at some of the reasons behind this disconnect in my latest column.

Currently, 38% believe it would be appropriate to continue the lockdowns in their own neighborhood and community. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree. That total includes 40% who believe it is time to ease the restrictions and 17% who believe it is time to end the lockdowns.

Additionally, 65% are concerned that some public officials are using the pandemic as an excuse to infringe upon the Constitutional rights of individual Americans.

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The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from May 7-9, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online while 174 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied and the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.