Regardless of who they want to win in November, 45% of Registered Voters nationwide believes that Democrat Joe Biden will emerge victorious. A Scott Rasmussen national survey found that 40% disagree and believe Republican Donald Trump will be the victor. Two percent (2%) think someone else will win it all while 12% are not sure.
The survey was conducted after the Democratic National Convention and before the Republican National Convention.
Looking back, responses have been trending in Biden’s direction for some time. Last year, a majority of voters expected Trump to be re-elected. That was before the pandemic and the lockdowns. In late June, voters were evenly divided about who would win–42% picked Biden and 42% Trump.
Eight-out-of-ten Democrats expect Biden to win while eight-out-of-ten Republicans expect Trump to be re-elected. Among unaffiliated voters, 39% pick Biden and 35% Trump.
We will repeat the question next week to see if there is any impact from the GOP convention.
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Methodology
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Scott Rasmussen using a mixed mode approach from August 20-22, 2020. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. Most respondents were contacted online or via text while 142 were contacted using automated phone polling techniques. Certain quotas were applied to the overall sample and lightly weighted by geography, gender, age, race, education, and political party to reasonably reflect the nation’s population of Registered Voters. Other variables were reviewed to ensure that the final sample is representative of that population.
