Month: December 2017

Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it’s impossible to know how strong they’ll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect.

In the Senate, the races to watch will be held in Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri. Nevada’s Dean Heller is the only Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill are Democrats fighting to keep their job in states that President Trump carried by nearly 20 points.

These three are must win states for the Democrats. If they win all three, a series of other close races could very well break their way to give Democrats majority control of the Senate.

If the parties split these races, the GOP would likely hang on to a narrow Senate majority. There just aren’t enough other races for the D’s to pick up seats.

At the other extreme, if the Republicans sweep all three, additional Democratic incumbents might also be in trouble. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp would be at risk and the GOP could make significant gains.

Of special importance in these races is the fact that the Senate plays a key role in judicial appointments. Voters in Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and North Dakota will want to avoid giving Democrats the ability to block President Trump’s judicial appointments. That alone could keep the Senate under Republican control.

Shifting to the House, the Democrats are almost certain to pick up seats because the party out of power just about always gains ground in the midterms. However, with 435 seats in play, there are no “must-win” races for either team.

There are, however, a few races to give a sense of how good a night the Democrats are likely to have. The first is Illinois-6, currently held by Republican Peter Roskam. This suburban district was carried by Hillary Clinton. Not only that, special elections this year have shown that the GOP is struggling to hang on to suburban voters. If Roskam is still competitive come November, the GOP might hold their losses to a dozen seats or so.

A more difficult race for the Democrats is Utah-4, currently held by Mia Love. Utah is typically hostile territory for Democrats but they’ve recruited a good challenger in Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams. Still, this is the kind of seat the D’s could win only on a very good night. If we get to November and this race looks competitive, it means that the Republicans have already lost suburban seats like Roskam’s and the Democrats could pick up 35-40 seats. They need just 24 to win control.

The biggest factor in determining control of the House will be the economy. A strong economy helps the GOP immensely (especially after passage of tax reform). However, a second critical factor might be how much Democrats talk about impeaching President Trump. If they do that rather than focusing on issues, it will be good news for the GOP.

None of us can know what things will look like in November, but right now control of the House seems to be a pure toss-up.

Many Democratic political leaders have convinced themselves that the Republican tax reform bill will be a great boost for the Democrats in next year’s midterm elections. They could be right, but the outcome is far from certain. Instead, the political implications will be determined by how the economy performs and President Trump’s salesmanship.

The economy matters most of all. If it sputters or tanks in 2018, nothing will save the Republican majorities in Congress. But if the economy keeps improving, President Trump will have a chance to turn tax reform into a political windfall for his party.

Presidential salesmanship has always had a big electoral impact. In 2002, Democrats thought that the Bush tax cuts and the President’s drive to invade Iraq would doom the GOP. Instead, the president campaigned aggressively on his agenda to help his party regain control of the U.S. Senate.

In 2004, President Bush’s poll numbers were soft heading into the summer and many expected he would lose his bid for re-election. At the time, the War on Terror was the top issue in the nation. As the president campaigned, confidence in the U.S. efforts improved and so did the president’s poll numbers.

In 2012, President Obama’s poll numbers were also soft heading into the summer of his re-election bid. At that time, the key issue was the economy rather than a national security focus. But as the president campaigned, public confidence in the economy improved enough for President Obama to be re-elected.

So, the key question for 2018 will be President Trump’s salesmanship. With a decent economy, he’ll have a lot to work with and sell. In addition to tax reform, he’ll point to the very significant steps he’s taken to reduce the regulatory burden on the economy. And, he’ll benefit from the fact that only about 5% of Americans will see their taxes go up next year. According to the left-leaning Brookings Institute, over 80% will see a tax cut averaging over $2,000.

If the president can convince enough swing voters that his regulatory and tax reforms are responsible for creating a better economy, the Republican Party could have a relatively good midterm election.

Another advantage for the president and his party is that ten Senate Democrats are running for re-election in states won by the president in 2016. A good sales effort by the president will make it difficult for Senate Democrats to explain their vote against tax reform in states like Indiana, Missouri, and West Virginia.

In addition to the economic message, the president will also be able to emphasize his appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court and other judicial appointees. In many Republican leaning states, that will be a very powerful reason to retain a GOP Senate majority.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that Republicans are going to have a good election night next November. Midterm elections almost always result in losses for the party in power. However, the extent of those losses will depend on what happens between now and next November rather than by the details of the tax reform bill.

With Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama, Democrats now have at least a plausible path to winning control of the U.S. Senate in the 2018 elections. It’s a difficult path to be sure, but it could happen.

The first step will be for Democrats to successfully defend all of their Senate incumbents next November. That’s not going to be easy because the list includes 10 running in states that voted for Donald Trump. But, the results from Alabama suggest that it could happen. If it does, all Democrats would need to win the Senate is to pick up a pair of GOP seats. And they definitely have a chance to do so in Arizona and Nevada.

The Alabama results indicate that Democrats might be positioned for a very strong midterm election. Especially notable was the strong African-American turnout that lifted Jones to victory. If minority voters remain engaged at similar levels next November, Republicans will have an enormous challenge on their hands.

Not only that, many Republicans chose to stay home rather than vote for Moore. If Republican turnout is depressed and minority turnout is up, the Democrats could win both Houses of Congress. And, if that wasn’t enough, nearly half of college educated white women in Alabama showed up and cast a vote for the Democrat.

If the same trends continue in 2018, it will be a nightmare election for the GOP.

While some would like to write off the stunning upset in Alabama to a flawed candidate who ran a terrible campaign, the Moore candidacy was really just the symptom of a much deeper problem: Republican voters have little trust or confidence in the Republican establishment.

It’s hard to blame them. After all, the establishment spent seven years collecting votes on a promise to repeal Obamacare. Voters gave the GOP control of Congress and the White House only to learn that the elected politicians didn’t really mean it. For many, that wasn’t really a surprise. It simply confirmed what they had seen before. Politicians are good at making promises but not so good on delivering.

Since GOP voters have come to see little value in sending traditional Republicans to Washington, they have become more and more attracted to people who will fight the status quo. Occasionally, that leads to a quality Senator like Mike Lee from Utah. More often, however, it leads to candidates like Roy Moore, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock who lose elections that Republicans should win.

Establishment leaders are correct to point out that a more careful vetting process and thoughtful candidate selection would lead to more Republican victories. But that doesn’t mean they are blameless in the party’s Civil War. Quite the opposite, in fact; a health leadership would seek out quality candidates who can truly represent their voters, run a successful campaign, and then deliver on their promises.

Until the Republican leaders can change their tune and earn the trust of their voters, the party’s Civil War will continue. That will lead to losing other elections they should win, and quite possibly to the Democratic control of the United States Senate.

There are events in history that no one alive will ever forget. But time moves on and those who will never forget eventually leave this earth. The rest of us know it only from the history books.

One of those events was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Only a handful of Americans alive today actually remember the day President Franklin Roosevelt said would forever live in infamy. Even fewer remember that the first Administration spokesperson to address the nation that day was not the president, but First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt.

In those days, radio was the hot communications technology and just about all Americans listened to it. President Roosevelt famously bonded with the American people through a series of “Fireside Chat” broadcasts. But the First Lady also hosted a weekly show that aired every Sunday night.

Upon learning of the Sunday morning attack on Pearl Harbor, the decision was made for Mrs. Roosevelt to go ahead with her regular weekly broadcast. She did, however, change the introduction to say she was speaking “at a very serious moment in our history.” Her commentary informed the nation that “The Cabinet is convening and the leaders in Congress are meeting with the President.”

The First Lady went on to disclose the treacherous fact that “the Japanese ambassador was talking to the president at the very time that Japan’s airships were bombing our citizens in Hawaii and the Philippines.”

Mrs. Roosevelt made it clear that all Americans were involved in this struggle. Although it’s impossible to imagine today, the political elites in the 1940s were not exempt from the obligations imposed on other Americans. Speaking as a mother, the First Lady shared her concerns. “I have a boy at sea on a destroyer, for all I know he may be on his way to the Pacific. Two of my children are in coast cities on the Pacific.”

But she maintained her poise. “We know what we have to face and we know that we are ready to face it.” She expressed confidence that “Whatever is asked of us I am sure we can accomplish it. We are the free and unconquerable people of the United States of America.”

And then she did something no political figure would do in the twenty-first century. Rather than encouraging everyone to obsess over the latest new and political responses, the First Lady said it was time to “go about our daily business.” But to do so “more determined than ever to do the ordinary things as well as we can.” She added that “when we find a way to do anything more in our communities to help others, to build morale, to give a feeling of security, we must do it.” And then Eleanor Roosevelt practiced what she preached by going “back to the program we had arranged.”

That last bit of advice makes as much sense today as it did 76 years ago. It’s important to be aware of the news and political responses, but it’s the daily business of life that is even more important. The way to move our nation forward is to “do the ordinary things as well as we can” and “do… more in our communities to help others.”

Thank you, Eleanor Roosevelt.