60% Believe Trump Likely to Win in 2020… Up From 46% in February

The number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 continues to grow.

The latest ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 60% of voters nationwide now believe it is at least somewhat likely President Trump will be successful in next year’s campaign. That’s up from 57% in May, 54% in April, 50% in March and 46% in February.

The latest figures include 32% who say the president is Very Likely to be re-elected and 16% who think that outcome is Not at All Likely.

Data released earlier showed that 41% of voter believe none of the Democrats running will beat the president. On the other hand, 36% believe any of them will do so. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans believe none of the Democrats running can defeat President Trump. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Democrats believe any of them are likely to defeat him.

While expectations for the president have increased significantly since February, his Job Approval ratings have remained steady. Every daily release since January 28 has shown the president’s job approval within two percentage points of 46%. This suggests that changing perceptions of Democrats and potential challengers may be responsible for improving the president’s perceived chances. That may have to do with the perception that the Democratic party is abandoning moderate voters by shifting far to the left politically.  Many Democrats in Congress have openly advocated Socialism, but only 12% of voters support socialism as an economic ideology.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republicans, 57% of Independents, and 38% of Democrats believe the president is likely to win (see crosstab results). Compared to a month ago, those figures reflect a one-point gain among Republicans, a six-point increase among Independents, and a five-point improvement among Democrats.

The survey also found that 89% believe the president will run for re-election. At the other extreme, 8% say Trump is unlikely to be president at the end of 2019.

Other data shows that the just over 40% of voters consistently believe that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

In the race to challenge the president in 2020, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders currently lead all other Democrats. However, only Biden leads the president in a general election match-up. His lead has been declining in recent months.

ScottRasmussen.com provides regular polling updates on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination and general election match-ups. Please sign up to receive the latest daily data and insights via email. You can also follow our work on TwitterFacebook, and YouTube.

We provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. We also provide regular updates on the economyhealth careimmigrationCongress, ratings of Congressional leadersElection 2020, the Democratic PrimariesTrust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

The national survey of 1,003 Registered Voters was conducted July 12-13, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a Demographic Profile of the sample). Results from the full sample have +/-3.1 Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

Scott's Newsletter
Sign up for Scott's newsletter and get his political insight delivered right to your inbox!