63% Believe Trump Likely to Win in 2020… Up From 46% in February… Growing Every Month

The number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 continues to grow.

The latest ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 63% of voters nationwide now believe it is at least somewhat likely President Trump will be successful in next year’s campaign. That’s up from 60% in July, 57% in May, 54% in April, 50% in March and 46% in February.

The latest figures include 29% who say the president is Very Likely to be re-elected and 15% who think that outcome is Not at All Likely.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans believe the president is likely to win. In fact, a majority (56%) of GOP voters believe he is Very Likely to be re-elected.

On the other side of the aisle, 42% think a Trump victory in 2020 is at least somewhat likely while 58% disagree. Just 26% of Democrats believe a Trump re-election is Not at All Likely. take the opposite view.

Among Independent voters, 62% say the president is likely to win and 38% disagree (see crosstab results).

While expectations for the president have increased significantly since February, his Job Approval ratings have remained steady. Every daily release since January 28 has shown the president’s job approval within two percentage points of 46%. This suggests that changing perceptions of Democrats and potential challengers may be responsible for improving the president’s perceived chances.

Other data shows that 47% of voters say they will definitely vote against President Trump in 2020. That number almost matches the president’s 46% job approval rating. If these two numbers remain steady throughout 2020, it could lead to  another very close election.

The survey also found that 91% believe the president will run for re-election. At the other extreme, 8% say Trump is Not at All Likely to be president at the end of 2019.

In the race to challenge the president in 2020, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders currently lead all other Democrats. Polling has shown Biden to be the strongest candidate against the president in general election match-ups.

It is important to remember that we are VERY early in the Election 2020 cycle and a lot can change between now and November 2020.

ScottRasmussen.com provides daily polling updates on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. We also release daily updates on other topics in the news and items of interest. Please sign up to receive daily email.

We provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. We also provide regular updates on the economyhealth careimmigrationCongress, ratings of Congressional leadersElection 2020, the Democratic PrimariesTrust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

Please follow our work on TwitterFacebook, and YouTube.

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted August 11-12, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a Demographic Profile of the sample). Results from the full sample have +/-3.1 Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

Scott's Newsletter
Sign up for Scott's newsletter and get his political insight delivered right to your inbox!