57% Believe Trump Likely to Win in 2020… Down From 63% in August… Up From 46% in February

The number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 has fallen a bit in recent months.

The latest ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 57% of voters nationwide now believe it is at least somewhat likely President Trump will be successful in next year’s campaign. That’s down five points from 62% in September, down six from 63% in August and down three from 60% in July.

Expectations are now unchanged from 57% in May but up from 54% in April, 50% in March and 46% in February.

(NOTE: We did not ask the question in June).

The latest figures include 31% who say the president is Very Likely to be re-elected and 17% who think that outcome is Not at All Likely.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans believe the president is likely to win. In fact, a majority (61%) of GOP voters believe he is Very Likely to be re-elected.

On the other side of the aisle, 36% think a Trump victory in 2020 is at least somewhat likely while 63% disagree. Just 28% of Democrats believe a Trump re-election is Not at All Likely.

Among Independent voters, 52% say the president is at least somewhat likely to win and 48% disagree (see crosstab results). Last month, 60% of Independent voters believed a Trump victory was at least somewhat likely.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of voters believe it is likely President Trump will still be in office at the end of 2019. Fourteen percent (14%) say it’s Not Very Likely and 11% say Not at All Likely. The nation is fairly evenly divided as to whether the president should be impeached and removed from office.

The survey also found that 91% believe the president will run for re-election. At the other extreme, 8% say Trump is Not at All Likely to be president at the end of 2019.

In the race to challenge the president in 2020, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders currently lead all other Democrats. Polling has shown Biden to be the strongest candidate against the president in general election match-ups.

It is important to remember that we are VERY early in the Election 2020 cycle and a lot can change between now and November 2020.

ScottRasmussen.com releases new public opinion data every day relating to topics in the news and other items of interest. Please SIGN UP to receive the latest data and insights each day via email.

We provide daily updates on the Democratic Primaries, the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. We also provide regular updates on the economyhealth careimmigrationCongress, ratings of Congressional leadersElection 2020Trust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

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The national survey of 1,002 Registered Voters was conducted September 17-18, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a Demographic Profile of the sample). Results from the full sample have +/-3.1 Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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