57% Believe Trump Likely to Win in 2020… Up From 54% a Month Ago, 46% in February

The number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 continues to grow.

The latest ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 57% of voters nationwide now believe it is at least somewhat likely President Trump will be successful in next year’s campaign. That’s up from 54% a month ago, 50% two month ago and 46% in February.

The latest figures include 29% who say the president is Very Likely to be re-elected and 15% who think that outcome is Not at All Likely. Compared to a month ago, that’s a six point increase in the number who are very confident of his victory and a four point decline who can’t imagine it will happen.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republicans, 51% of Independents, and 33% of Democrats believe the president is likely to win (see crosstab results).

It is possible that the shift in 2020 expectations may be related to growing confidence in the economy.

However, it is worth noting that expectations for the president have increased significantly during a time when his Job Approval ratings have remained steady. Every daily release since January 28 has shown the president’s job approval within two percentage points of 46%.

This suggests that changing perceptions of Democrats and potential challengers may be responsible for improving the president’s perceived chances. In recent months, the Democrat’s loudest voices might best be described as 20-percenters because they advocate proposals supported by about 20% of the population (or less). A recent example of this phenomenon was Senator Bernie Sanders’ position that violent criminals should be allowed to vote from prison. Just 15% of voters agree.

Another 2019 shift has been a growing perception that Congress is moving to the left politically. Among all voters, 36% now believe that Congress is too liberal while 31% believe it is too conservative.  Last fall, a solid plurality believed Congress was too conservative. Many Democrats in Congress have openly advocated Socialism, but only 12% of voters support socialism as an economic ideology.

In the race to challenge the president in 2020, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders currently lead all other Democrats. However, only Biden leads the president in a general election match-up. His lead has been declining in recent months.

The most recent survey also found that 88% believe the president will run for re-election. At the other extreme, 13% say Trump is unlikely to be president at the end of 2019.
ScottRasmussen.com releases new public opinion data every day relating to topics in the news and other items of interest. Please sign up to receive the latest data and insights each day via email.

We provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. We also provide regular updates on the economyhealth careimmigrationCongress, ratings of Congressional leadersElection 2020, the Democratic PrimariesTrust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

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The national survey of 1,002 Registered Voters was conducted May 16-17, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a Demographic Profile of the sample). Results from the full sample have +/-3.1 Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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