Trump 51% Romney 28%

If Senator Mitt Romney were to challenge President Trump for the Republican presidential nomination, 51% of Republican and Independent voters would back the president while 28% would vote for Romney. A national survey found that among Republican voters only, the president is preferred by a 70% to 17% margin.

Independent voters are allowed to vote in many Republican primaries, including New Hampshire’s first in the nation vote. Among Independents, Romney picks up 40% of the vote to Trump’s 31%.

In general election match-ups, the president trails a generic Democrat by six percentage points (45% to 39%) while Romney trails by 12 (37% to 29%). The biggest reason for the difference is that the president attracts 80% of the Republican vote in that match-up while Romney earns just 54%.

Please keep in mind that these results are from Registered Voters only and do not reflect a measure of who is likely to actually show up and vote.

Overall, 44% of voters believe the new Senator from Utah is at least somewhat likely to challenge President Trump for the nomination. Most Democrats (54%) think it is likely along with 43% of Independents and 39% of Republicans.

Romney is viewed favorably by 40% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 33%. He earns positive reviews from 46% of Republicans, 42% of Democrats, and 33% of Independent voters (see crosstab results).

The dynamic of tepid reviews from his own party and generally positive reviews from Democratic voters is reminiscent of the late Senator John McCain. If Romney were to challenge the president for the nomination, it might resemble McCain’s contest against George W. Bush in 2000. During that primary season, Bush won handily all the primaries with Republican voters only. McCain did well in states where Independent voters were allowed to participate. releases new public opinion data every day relating to topics in the news and other items of interest. We also provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

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The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted January 4-5, 2019 by and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).


Posted in Poll Results

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