The Morning After

First impressions are that the 2018 midterm elections were generally in line with what pollsters and analysts expected. Democrats won the House, but it wasn’t an enormous wave like the Tea Party victories in 2010. Republicans padded the Senate majority.

We didn’t poll individual House races, but the Generic Ballot consistently showed results consistent with the modest Democratic majority produced on Election Day. We also worked with HarrisX to survey six key Senate races for the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation. They provided a reliable guide to Election Day by looking at each race over three time frames and on three turnout models. Check out the results for yourself.

One interesting note worth keeping in mind as 2020 approaches. Three of the states we surveyed were very pro-Trump states (Indiana, Missouri, Montana). In all three, there was a fairly large number of undecided voters and in all cases the undecideds tended to break towards the GOP candidate. That’s political gravity at work.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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