A Tale of Two Elections

Much has been made of how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans in this election cycle. Only one GOP incumbent (Nevada’s Dean Heller) is seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending many seats in states won handily by President Trump.

In the House, however, things are much different. Nineteen races will determine whether or not the Democrats enjoy a huge electoral wave and are able to win majority control of the House. These 19 races are in geographically much friendlier territory for Nancy Pelosi’s party. Ten are located in states won by Hillary Clinton and four more in Pennsylvania, a toss-up state.

This suggests that rather than a national election in 2018, we’ll actually be looking a two separate electoral maps. One heavily favors the GOP and the other does not. One set of voters will be excited by the policy and judicial changes of the past year, the other will be horrified. Because the voters who will decide control of the House and Senate will be so different, it shouldn’t be much of surprise if the outcomes are vastly different as well.

The 19 House races to watch are featured in my weekly column.

 

Posted in Deeper Currents

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