Support for Kavanaugh Nomination Stable and Polarized

Daily polling on Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process shows that opinions have settled into a stable and partisan pattern.

His personal ratings and support for his confirmation slipped a bit after Dr. Christine Blasey Ford first went public with her allegations about Judge Brett Kavanaugh. They rebounded a bit until a second woman came forward with allegations. Since then, however, they have remained generally stable over 8 full days of polling.

Among those following the story, between 45% and 47% have favored his confirmation on every day but one (see tracking results from August 15 to today).

His personal approval ratings have generally been between 47% and 51%. Two days were a bit higher and two a bit lower. Those exceptions may have been due to the news cycle or perhaps were just statistical noise.

On seven of the last eight days, the number expecting Kavanaugh to be confirmed has stayed between 70% and 76%.

It is possible that Kavanaugh’s numbers were trending down before his appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee and have recovered since then.

Even before the past eight days, changing perceptions of Kavanaugh have always been around the margins. That reflects the deeply polarizing team sport nature of 21st century politics.

Our first poll on this topic was conducted in mid-August before his confirmation hearings. Since then, among those following the story, his favorability ratings on single nights of polling have ranged from a low of 44% to a high of 55%. The low was reached this past week just before the Judiciary Committee hearings. The high was reached in early September following his first round of public confirmation hearings (and before Dr. Ford’s allegations were made public).

 

Posted in Deeper Currents

Scott's Newsletter
Sign up for Scott's newsletter and get his political insight delivered right to your inbox!