Senate Polls Bring Good News for McSally (R-AZ) and Tester (D-MT) and HarrisX have been working with the Auto Alliance and the National Retail Federation to track six Senate races in Election 2018: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada.

For each race, results are presented with three different turnout models. In addition to a base projection, we model a High Republican turnout and a High Democratic turnout. The data has been released along three different time frames–a 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day rolling average. We do this because it’s the turnout that will decide the final outcome of the midterm elections.

The seven-day numbers have the most solid sample and lowest margin of error. However, the 3-day numbers may give a sense of momentum. They also, of course, are more susceptible to statistical noise and have a higher margin of error. The numbers should reviewed in the aggregate rather than cherry-picked for the results you most want to see.

The most recent data, released last night at 5 pm Eastern, shows that just two candidates lead across all time frames and turnout models: Republican Martha McSally in Arizona and Democrat Jon Tester in Montana. While the races are close, they appear to be favorites at the moment. In the other four races, each candidate has the lead in at least two of the time frame models we present. That’s the very definition of too close to call.

A couple of other notes on this project. First, some outlets have mistakenly identified our partner on the project as Harris Interactive. That is inaccurate. We are partnering with HarrisX, a separate firm (though it does share common ownership). Second, of course, neither I nor have any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Finally, we did not push undecided voters to see which way they are leaning. As a result, the undecideds are fairly high (7-10%). I generally assume some of these voters will stay home and the rest will break to some degree in the direction of the state’s political gravity. So, in states like Indiana, Missouri, and Montana, I’d expect a slight break in the GOP direction. That won’t be the case in Arizona, Florida, or Nevada. Check out the results for yourself.

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Posted in Deeper Currents

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