Midterm Momentum?

At ScottRasmussen.com, we track the Generic Congressional Ballot on a daily basis and have been reporting the results weekly. On Saturday, our weekly data showed that the Republicans had been gaining ground. The race appeared to be tightening as the migrant caravan dominated the news. However, we also noted that Friday’s results were the best of the week for Democrats and speculated that news about the mail bombings may have had an impact.

With polling data, it’s often difficult to tell whether a single day’s results are a blip, the start of a trend, or merely statistical noise. So, I’ve been checking the data daily during the final week of the campaign.

Results from yesterday showed another good day of polling for the Democrats. Looking at the most likely voters on a three-day rolling average basis, our numbers showed the Democratic lead had fallen from ten points a couple of weeks ago to five-points as of last Thursday.

As of this morning, however, the Democratic lead is back up to nine-points. This may be a trend showing momentum for the Democrats or it may just be that the real number is somewhere in between. In either case, Republicans are not currently closing the gap. A different turnout model shows somewhat better numbers for the GOP but the same trend.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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