Markets Say Democrats Have 24% Chance of Winning Senate

As of 10:00 a.m. on Friday, June 22, shows that the Democrats have a 24% chance of winning the U.S. Senate in November. The odds are determined by people placing bets for or against various election scenarios.

Looking at the race-by-race assessment, the betting market sees the Republicans as likely to lose Senate seats in both Arizona and Nevada. They GOP is given just a 37% chance in Arizona’s open seat race and a 30% shot in Nevada where Dean Heller is the only Republican incumbent running in a state won by Hillary Clinton.

Three Democratic Senators are given less than a 50% chance of keeping their jobs: Claire McCaskill in Missouri (48%); Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota (44%); and, Joe Donnelly in Indiana (46%).

Each party also has one race in which it is barely expected to keep its seat. In Tennessee, Republicans are 52% favorites to keep the seat being vacated by Bob Corker. In Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson is given a 54% chance to keep his job.

If all the projections at this point ended up being accurate, the Republicans would pick up a net of one additional Senate seat in November.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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