For millions of political junkies, today’s the big day. For millions of other Americans it’s a day to celebrate the end of civic pollution known as campaign ads. And, as we noted earlier, for 37% of voters, it’s the most important election of their lifetime.
Despite all the noise and hype, the conventional wisdom heading into election day is pretty much the same as it’s been all year. Republicans are more likely to gain seats than lose in the Senate. Democrats are likely to win the House, though the size of their likely majority is in doubt.
In the midst of all this, many have failed to recognize how even a very modest change in turnout could have an outsized impact on the results. At this point, as I wrote in my final pre-election syndicated column, it’s all about turnout.