Is Texas Ready to Elect a Democratic Senator?

This morning, I had a nice chat with Pete Hegseth on Fox and Friends about a number of key Senate races.

First up was the question that has all Republicans worried–Could Ted Cruz really lose to Beto O’Rourke? He’s certainly in a tougher race than anybody ever expected. And, an upset is not out of the question. But the political gravity of Texas will probably secure Cruz another term in the Senate. At we rate this race as Likely Republican.

We also discussed 3 of the 6 toss-up races. In Indiana and Missouri, Democratic incumbents Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill are in tough races. Donald Trump won both states by 19 points so this becomes a battle between the power of incumbency and the power of political gravity.

Finally, in Arizona, the interesting dynamic is the issues mix. Just about everywhere in the country the top two issues are health care and the economy. In Arizona, it’s health care and immigration. Republican Martha McSally’s support is driven by the immigration issue.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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