Race Status
Toss Up
INCUMBENT PARTY: Rep last updated: 09-10-2018
INCUMBENT PARTY: Rep last updated: 09-10-2018
Key Dates
Filing Deadline: 04/02/2018
Primaries: 06/05/2018
General Election: 11/06/2018
Primaries: 06/05/2018
General Election: 11/06/2018
Race Status History
current week ↑
Dem Candidate
WINNER: Andy Kim (Share of Vote: Unopposed
)
Rep Incumbent
WINNER: Tom MacArthur (Share of Vote: Unopposed)
Pundit Opinions
Average | Cook | Sabato | Inside Elections | Real Clear Politics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up | Toss Up |
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Current House Scoreboard
Race Newsfeed
- Air Force finalizes decision to place new KC-46 tankers at joint base 09/25/2018
- Republican Tom MacArthur goes on offense, bluntly brands Democrat Andy Kim a liar 09/25/2018
- LETTER: Rep. Tom MacArthur's votes hurt public education 09/22/2018
- LETTER: Rep. Tom MacArthur seeks to divide us while hiding from his record 09/22/2018
- Tom MacArthur touts centrism in bid to avoid Dem sweep in Southern New Jersey 09/21/2018
- Racist font used in attack ad against Korean American candidate, Democrats say 09/19/2018
- A mailer targeting Asian American New Jersey candidate Andy Kim has been called out for racism. 09/19/2018
- Racist mailer targets Asian-American candidate in New Jersey 09/18/2018
- Tom MacArthur's campaign ads convinced me to vote — for his opponent, Andy Kim | Opinion 09/18/2018
- Maryland man fatally shoots his wife and 10-year-old son before killing himself, police say 09/17/2018
Bottom Line
Representative Tom MacArthur won with 59% of the vote in 2016 but things are likely to be much more challenging in 2018. His opponent served in the Obama Administration and health care is emerging as a big issue. A late summer Monmouth University poll showed the fall campaign is beginning with the candidates essentially even.
2018 District NJ-03 Data Card
NJ-03 Demographics
| Demographic | District | State | Nation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | 51% Female | 51.2% Male 48.8% Female | 51% Female |
| Race/Ethnicity | 75% White 10% African American 8% Hispanic 4% Asian | 55.8% White/Caucasian 16.6% White/Hispanic 15.0% Black/African American | 61% White 18% Hispanic 12% Black 5% Asian 2% Two or More 1% Native |
| Language Other than Eng at Home | 12.1% | 13.7% | 21.1% |
| High School Grad Rate | 92.8% | 89.3% | 87.5% |
| College Grad Rate | 33.9% | 38.6% | 31.3% |
| Per Capita Income | $37,886 | $38,911 | $31,128 |
| Median Age | 43.3 | 39.5 | 37.9 |
| Population | 739,696 | 8944469 | 325.7 mil |
| Square Miles | 899.70 | 7354.6 | 3,796,742 |
| Population per SqMi | 1822.20 | 11216.2 | 185.8 |
| People per Household | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Foreign Born | 9.1% | 22.5% | 13.5% |
| Veteran | 8.4% | 4.8% | 7.4% |
| Geographic Mobility | 10.3% | 10.4% | 14.6% |
Data Credits
District/State/National: www.censusreporter.org
State: www.census.gov
State/Miscellaneous: BALLOTPEDIA State Profile
NJ-03 Voting History
Presidential Voting Percentages| Year | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 45.2 | 51.4 | -6.2 |
| Year | Obama | Romney | Margin |
| 2012 | 51.8 | 47.2 | +4.6 |
| Year | Obama | McCain | Margin |
| 2008 | 51.1 | 47.7 | +3.4 |
House Voting Percentages
| Year | DEM | REP | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 38.9 | 59.3 | -20.4 |
| 2014 | 44.4 | 54.0 | -9.6 |
| 2012 | 45.5 | 54.5 | -9 |
National Presidential Voting Percentages
National House Voting Percentages
| Year | Clinton | Trump | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 48.4 | 46.3 | +2.1 |
| Year | Obama | Romney | Margin |
| 2012 | 51.1 | 47.3 | +3.8 |
| Year | Obama | McCain | Margin |
| 2008 | 53 | 45.7 | +7.3 |
National House Voting Percentages
| Year | DEM | REP | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 48 | 49.1 | -1.1 |
| 2014 | 45.7 | 51.4 | -5.7 |
| 2012 | 50.6 | 49.4 | +1.2 |
Other Races in New Jersey
| Sort | Race | Current Status |
|---|---|---|
| Sort | Race | Current Status |
| Senate Race: New Jersey (Menendez v TBD) | Likely Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-01 (Norcross v TBD) | Strong Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-02 (TBD v TBD) | Tilt Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-03 (TBD v MacArthur) | Likely Rep | |
| House Race: NJ-04 (TBD v Smith) | Strong Rep | |
| House Race: NJ-05 (Gottheimer v TBD) | Lean Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-06 (Pallone v TBD) | Strong Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-07 (TBD v Lance) | Lean Rep | |
| House Race: NJ-08 (Sires v TBD) | Strong Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-09 (Pascrell v TBD) | Strong Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-10 (Payne v TBD) | Strong Dem | |
| House Race: NJ-11 (TBD v TBD) | Toss Up | |
| House Race: NJ-12 (Coleman v TBD) | Strong Dem |
