2018 House Race: California District: CA-04 ( Jessica Morse v Tom McClintock )

CURRENT STATUS: Pending General Election

Race Status

Likely Rep
INCUMBENT PARTY: Rep last updated: 09-10-2018
This state conducts
JUNGLE PRIMARIES
 
Key Dates
Filing Deadline: 03/09/2018
Primaries: 06/05/2018
General Election: 11/06/2018

Race Status History
current week ↑ 

Democratic Candidate

Dem Candidate

Jessica Morse
BALLOTPEDIA Profile

WINNER: Jessica Morse (Share of Vote: 19.97% )
REGISTERED CANDIDATES
Regina Bateson (Share of Vote: 12.51% )
Roza Calderon (Share of Vote: 6.17% )
Robert Lawton (Share of Vote: 2.35%)


Incumbent

Rep Incumbent

Republican Candidate
Tom McClintock
BALLOTPEDIA Profile

WINNER: Tom McClintock (Share of Vote: 52.12% )
REGISTERED CANDIDATES
Mitchell White (Share of Vote: 6.88% )


Pundit Opinions

Average
CookSabatoInside ElectionsReal Clear Politics
Likely RepLikely RepLikely RepLikely RepLikely Rep
   

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Current House Scoreboard
Bottom Line

It’s always bad for an incumbent when a challenger raises more money than they have. In the fourth quarter of 2017, Representative Tom McClintock was out-raised by not one but two potential Democratic challengers–Jessica Morse and Regina Bateson. Still, it will take a wave election for McClintock to lose.

Representative Tom McClintock is one of 45 Republican incumbents who raised less money than their challengers during the fourth quarter of 2017.

Most incumbents, even those who raised less money than their challengers last year, still have more money in the bank than their opponents. They can draw upon resources from earlier campaigns to begin 2018 with a cash advantage. However, Representative  McClintock is one of only 13 Republican incumbents to have less cash on hand as the New Year began.

 

2018 District CA-04 Data Card
CA-04 Demographics
DemographicDistrictStateNation
Gender50% Female49.7% Male
50.3% Female
51% Female
Race/Ethnicity75% White
14% Hispanic
5% Asian
4% Two or More
37.7% White/Caucasian
35.0% White/Hispanic
14.8% Asian
61% White
18% Hispanic
12% Black
5% Asian
2% Two or More
1% Native
Language Other than Eng at Home12.8%43.9%21.1%
High School Grad Rate93.0%82.4%87.5%
College Grad Rate33.3%32.9%31.3%
Per Capita Income$38,757$33,389$31,128
Median Age44.236.437.9
Population737,16939250017325.7 mil
Square Miles12,836.90155788.13,796,742
Population per SqMi157.401251.9185.8
People per Household2.63.02.7
Foreign Born9.2%27.2%13.5%
Veteran9.5%5.4%7.4%
Geographic Mobility15.5%13.4%14.6%
Note: All area related stats do NOT include bodies of water.

Data Credits
District/State/National: www.censusreporter.org
State: www.census.gov
State/Miscellaneous: BALLOTPEDIA State Profile
CA-04 Voting History
Presidential Voting Percentages
YearClintonTrumpMargin
201639.354.0-14.7
YearObamaRomneyMargin
201239.557.9-18.4
YearObamaMcCainMargin
200844.555.5-11

House Voting Percentages
YearDEMREPMargin
201637.362.7-25.4
20140.0100.0-100
201238.961.1-22.2

Show National Voting Statistics

National Presidential Voting Percentages
YearClintonTrumpMargin
201648.446.3+2.1
YearObamaRomneyMargin
201251.147.3+3.8
YearObamaMcCainMargin
20085345.7+7.3

National House Voting Percentages
YearDEMREPMargin
20164849.1-1.1
201445.751.4-5.7
201250.649.4+1.2
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