Biden 43% Trump 36%; Trump 38% Sanders 38%

If the 2020 election for President were held today, 43% of voters would cast their ballot for former Vice President Joe Biden and 36% would prefer President Donald Trump. A national survey found that 5% would vote for a third option, 5% would not vote, and 11% are not sure what they would do.

In a match-up with the Senator Bernie Sanders, the president is tied at 38%.The survey found that the president has a slight advantage over Senator Kamala Harris (38% to 33%) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (40% to 33%).

The survey gave respondents the option of saying they would vote for someone other than the top choices. That helps explain why Biden’s numbers are better than the other hopefuls. Only 4% of Democrats say they would vote for someone else if Biden is the nominee. That number jumps to 14% for Warren, 15% for Sanders, and 15% for Harris. A similar pattern is seen among Independent voters.

If any of the other leading Democrats became the frontrunner for the nomination, this data suggests that their poll numbers against the president would improve as Democratic voters become more supportive.

These early results are little changed from a month ago. Biden enjoyed a slightly bigger advantage two months ago and three months ago.

Polling shows that Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Warren are the top four candidates in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. They also lead the pack in terms of Social Media Support. While Biden has a wide lead in a crowded field, things look much different if the field narrows. Head-to-head match-ups among these leading candidates show there is no clear frontrunner.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg trails the president by seven, 38% to 31%. Eight points back are Senators Cory Booker (39% to 31%), Kirsten Gillibrand (37% to 29%), and Amy Klobuchar (37% to 29%)

A number of other candidates are further back including former Congressman Beto O’Rourke. Once thought to be a leading contender, O’Rourke’s campaign has stumbled. He now trails the president by nine points, 39% to 30%.

Again, it’s important to note that Biden’s lead probably stems from both his high name recognition and the fact that he is perceived as the frontrunner for the nomination. If another Democrat were to assume the frontrunner’s role, it is likely that she or he would see a lead similar to Biden’s in this poll. Of course, the numbers could shift as voters get more familiar with any of these candidates.

Biden is viewed favorably by 50% of voters and unfavorably by 35%. Among Democrats, he is viewed favorably by 75% and unfavorably by 14%.

Sanders is viewed favorably by 41% of all voters and unfavorably by 44%. Senator Elizabeth Warren gets positive reviews from 34% and negative assessments from 37%. Senator Kamala Harris gets good marks from 33% and not so good marks from 29%.

Among Democrats, Sanders is viewed favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 21%. The numbers for Warren are 57% positive 16% negative. For Harris they are 54%/9%.

Biden is the only one of these candidates with net positive numbers among Independent voters

See full crosstab results for all match-ups here and here. releases new public opinion data every day relating to topics in the news and other items of interest. Please sign up to receive the latest data and insights each day via email.

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These results are based upon a pair on national surveys. The first survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted May 25-26, 2019. The second was on May 26-27, 2019. Both were conducted by and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The Demographic profiles of the samples can be found here and here. Both surveys have a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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