Biden 42% Trump 39%; Sanders 39% Trump 38%; Trump 39% Harris 36%; Trump 40% Warren 36%

If the 2020 election for President were held today, 42% of voters would cast their ballot for former Vice President Joe Biden and 39% would prefer President Donald Trump. A national survey found that 7% would vote for a third option, 5% would not vote, and 8% are not sure what they would do.

In a match-up with the Senator Bernie Sanders, the president trails by a single point 39% to 38%. The survey found that the president has a slight edge over  Senator Kamala Harris (39% to 36%) and Senator Elizabeth Warren (40% to 36%).

Throughout 2019, Biden has consistently led the president and Sanders has consistently been in a toss-up. Harris and Warren are polling a bit better this month (see topline trends).

Some surveys from other firms have shown Democrats with a larger advantage over the president. That may be the result of offering voters the chance to say they’d vote for someone else, would not vote, or  are not sure. At this early stage of the race, we are not pushing respondents to determine which way they lean.

However, a look at the crosstab results suggests that the currently uncommitted voters might lean towards the Democrat in the race. For example, in a match-up between the president and Biden, only 7% of GOP voters are uncommitted. That number rises to 18% among Democrats. Some Democrats supporting another candidate in the primary may not be ready to admit they will support another candidate in the general election.

It’s also worth noting that this factor helps explain some of the gap between Biden’s numbers and other Democratic hopefuls. For example, in a Warren-Trump match-up, 26% of Democratic voters are uncommitted. That’s eight points higher than the Biden total. In reality, if Warren wins the nomination, her support among Democrats would move at least to the levels enjoyed by Biden today.

Polling shows that Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Warren are the top four candidates in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. They also lead the pack in terms of Social Media Support. While Biden has a wide lead in a crowded field, things look much different if the field narrows. Head-to-head match-ups among these leading candidates show there is no clear frontrunner.

The gap between the top-tier of candidates and the rest is highlighted in the general election data as well. In match-ups against the president, the top four are all within the margin of error. Senator Cory Booker trails by nine (40% to 31%) and the rest are behind by double digits.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg trails the president by ten, 40% to 30%. Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke now trails by eleven, 40% to 29. releases new public opinion data every day relating to topics in the news and other items of interest. Please sign up to receive the latest data and insights each day via email.

We provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. We also provide regular updates on the economyhealth careimmigrationCongress, ratings of Congressional leadersElection 2020, the Democratic PrimariesTrust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

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The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted July 25-26, 2019 by and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a Demographic Profile of the sample). Results from the full sample have +/-3.1 Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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