Generic Ballot: Democrats 49% Republicans 41%

If the election were held today, 49% of the nation’s most likely voters would vote for the Democrat from their district while 41% would vote for the Republican.  These results, based upon a full week of polling from September 9-14, 2018, reflect a 2-point gain for the GOP compared to a week ago. Support for the Democrats remained unchanged.

The national survey found that 3% would vote for some other party and 7% are not sure.

Estimating likely voter turnout is challenging, especially this far in advance of an election. At this point, is simply asking survey respondents how likely they are to vote and include only those who say they are “Definitely” going to vote as likely voters. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Registered Voters qualify.

Using a somewhat looser definition of Likely Voters, the Democrats have a six-point advantage (47% to 41%). This approach includes those who are “Very Likely” to vote. Among all Registered Voters, the Democratic edge is five points (41% to 36%). Collectively, these numbers suggest that Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about the upcoming elections and are currently more likely to turn out. Part of that enthusiasm is driven by the fact that 21% of voters consider themselves part of the “Resistance” to President Trump.

This information was collected as part of the Daily Tracking Poll. Our mission is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

We are currently updating these results on a weekly basis along with a measure of trust in government and the President’s Job Approval. Data is being collected daily and we will switch to daily releases in a week or two.

Recent releases have explored underlying attitudes about SocialismUniversal Basic Income, and Free Markets. Also, 10 years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a global financial crisis, 58% of voters still want to break up the nation’s biggest banks.

Our research has shown the disconnect between the politically obsessed and most Americans. Additionally, 83% of voters recognize that tech titans have a bigger impact on the nation than presidents.

The somewhat larger sample is a bit more favorably disposed towards the president than the “Definitely” sample. If this is the case closer to Election Day, it might suggest that a larger turnout is good news for Republicans. That would be consistent with a view that Democratic voters are currently more enthusiastic than GOP voters (see crosstabs).

For this week, a total of 5,000 Voters were surveyed by HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Interviews were conducted between September 9 and 14, 2018.  A total of 2,785 Voters indicated that they will “Definitely” vote. For the full Registered Voter sample, the statistical margin of error is approximately +/- 1.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. For the results based upon the most likely voters, it is +/- 1.9.

You can compare the demographic profile of Registered Voter sample with the Definite Voters sample. We also provide the demographics for the slightly expanded pool of voters that includes those who say they are “Very Likely” to vote.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).


Posted in Poll Results

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