Generic Ballot: Democrats 50% Republicans 42%

NOTE: This article was posted on November 3, 2018. For more current data, see our daily Generic Congressional Ballot Updates.

During a full week of polling from October 28-November 2, 2018, found that 50% of the nation’s most likely voters would vote for the Democrat from their district while 42% would vote for the Republican.  That’s up a point from last week’s 49% to 42% advantage. However, it is down a point from the Democratic advantage two week’s ago.

The survey also found that 3% would vote for some other party and 5% are not sure (see crosstabs).

In polling on six key Senate races, we offer results based upon three distinct turnout models over three different time frames. So far, the numbers look pretty good for Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Jon Tester (D-MT). The other races remain too close to call.

This Generic Ballot data is based upon a survey of 5,000 Registered Voters were surveyed by and HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Interviews were conducted between October 28 and November 2, 2018.  A total of 3,167 Voters indicated that they will “Definitely” vote and are considered the most likely voters.

For the full Registered Voter sample, the statistical margin of error is approximately +/- 1.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. For the results based upon the most likely voters, it is +/- 1.8.

Some outlets have mistakenly reported that we are partnering with Harris Interactive. That is inaccurate. HarrisX is a separate firm (though they share some common ownership.) Additionally, neither Scott Rasmussen nor has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

The mission of is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion.

The final three days of polling showed Democrats doing a bit better than the full week average. This could be a sign of late momentum for the Democrats or it may merely be statistical noise. To get a sense of the movement, we have decided to keep our daily tracking going throughout the final weekend of Election 2018. To keep up with the ongoing daily results, sign up for our Morning Update emails). currently defines a likely voter as those who say they are “Definitely” going to vote as likely voters.  Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Republicans now say they will definitely vote, unchanged from last week. In what may be another sign of Democratic momentum, 70% of Democrats are definitely planning to vote, up three points from a week ago.

Because it is so difficult to estimate turnout, we also look at data offering a slightly expanded definition of likely voters including those who are “Very Likely” to vote. By that measure, the Democrats have a six-point advantage, 48% to 42%. Among all Registered Voters, the Democrats hold a 44% to 37% advantage. As I noted earlier in the week, a very modest change in voter turnout could have a significant impact on the final results.

We update the Generic Congressional Ballot results on a weekly basis along with the President’s Job Approval.



Posted in Poll Results

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