ScottRasmussen.com conducts surveys on the Democratic presidential race every day and releases the results on a three-day rolling average basis weeknights at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time. Those updates measure immediate responses to events in the news and provide an early warning indicator for potential trends and developments.
However, daily tracking results are also subject to statistical noise due to a relatively small sample size (1,300 to 1,400 respondents for each release). With that in mind, ScottRasmussen.com will release data each Saturday based upon a full week of roughly 3,000 interviews. This provides a more stable measure of the race and allows for more demographic analysis.
For the week of August 9-16, 2019, former Vice President Joe Biden remains the frontrunner with support from 29% of Registered Democrats and Democratic Leaning Independent voters. Senator Bernie Sanders is in second place with 15% and Senator Elizabeth Warren is the only other candidate with double digit support at 11%.
Senator Kamala Harris remains in fourth with 7% of the vote. She is followed by Senator Cory Booker, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 4% each. Businessman Andrew Yang and Senator Cory Booker each attract support from 2%.
Twelve percent (12%) are not sure how they will vote, 3% are not planning to vote, and nobody else attracts more than 1% of voters.
This week’s results highlight the current stability of the race. Compared to a week ago, no candidate gained or lost more than a single percentage point. Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Yang gained a point. Sanders, Booker, and Secretary Julian Castro lost a point. In practical terms, this means there was absolutely no significant movement from one week to the next.
The biggest question of the race is whether Biden can keep his frontrunner status when the voting begins in Iowa next February. Many in official Washington are skeptical about his chances of doing so. If the former Vice President wins Iowa and does well in other early states, he could be on his way to the nomination. On the other hand, a loss in Iowa could raise other questions about his electability.
If Biden falters, it is hard to overstate how dramatically that would shake things up. Between his current level of support and those who are undecided, a Biden stumble would potentially make 41% of all Democratic voters open to other candidates. It is impossible to predict what would happen in such a circumstance.
See full crosstab results.
During the past week, Warren gained ground towards the end of the week and has now reached her highest level of support in our daily tracking. That will be something to watch in next week’s daily updates. Yang reached 3% early in the week, but his bounce faded a bit towards the end of the week.
Governor John Hickenlooper dropped out of the race during the week, but was included in the polling until he dropped out.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Registered Democrats and Democratic Leaning Independents would be satisfied or excited with Senator Elizabeth Warren as their party’s presidential nominee. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 76% say the same about former Vice President Joe Biden.
That’s a three-point gain for Warren compared to our July survey and it’s the first time anybody has topped Biden in this category. However, given the survey margin of error, the two leaders are essentially even. As the campaign was getting started, 85% expressed satisfaction with Biden as a potential nominee and nobody else was close.
At this point, 70% would be satisfied with Senator Bernie Sanders and 65% with Senator Kamala Harris. That reflects a five point decline for Sanders and a nine-point drop for Harris.
In addition to the Democratic race, ScottRasmussen.com tracks the president’s job approval and the Generic Congressional Ballot on a daily basis. In 2018, our final Generic Ballot poll showed the Democrats with an 8-point advantage among the most likely voters. That was very close to the actual popular vote margin of victory for Nancy Pelosi’s party.
Beyond our daily tracking, we also provide regular updates on the economy, health care, immigration, Congress, ratings of Congressional leaders, Election 2020, Trust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).
This national survey of 3,118 Registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent Voters was conducted August 9-16, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). Results from the full sample have +/- 1.8 percentage point Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.
Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).