Final Kavanaugh Tracking Data Shows Public Evenly Divided has been monitoring the confirmation process of Judge Brett Kavanaugh since mid-August. Daily tracking over the past few weeks has confirmed that public opinion has stabilized (see daily topline results). There is a clear partisan divide among those following the story and overall opinions are split right down the middle.

Our final night of tracking showed that, among those following the story, 51% had a favorable opinion of Kavanaugh (see single night crosstab results). That data was collected after release of the FBI report but before Senator Susan Collins announced her support for Kavanaugh.

Over the past week, we interested 6,805 Registered Voters and found 5,973 who were paying at least some attention to the Kavanaugh story. Among these voters, 50% had a favorable opinion of the judge and 50% had an unfavorable view. Forty-eight percent (48%) want their Senator to confirm him and 52% do not. Thirty-three percent (33%) believe he is too conservative but 40% say his ideology is about right

There is a gender gap on the issue–52% of men want him confirmed while just 43% of women share that view. However, the partisan gap is much wider: 83% of Republicans favor confirmation and 81% of Democrats are opposed (see full week crosstab results and my earlier analysis).

Despite the intensity of the debate, it’s worth noting that 63% of voters nationwide do not have a strong opinion of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford. Half (50%) do not have a strong opinion of the nominee. Most think it’s likely that both told the truth as they know it and remember it. And, 65% believe both probably made some statements that were misleading or untruthful (see question wording and crosstab data).

One interesting side note is that favorable ratings for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have jumped. Thirty-seven percent (37%) have a favorable opinion and 37% unfavorable. That’s up from 20% favorable/47% unfavorable in August. Every other congressional leader has higher negatives than positives.

A similar bounce was found for Senator Lindsey Graham.

See topline results for a number of key players in the Kavanaugh confirmation process including Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, Dianne Feinstein, and Cory Booker. These surveys reflect attitudes among all Registered Voters rather than just those following the Kavanaugh story.



Posted in Deeper Currents

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