Dems Hold Steady Lead on Generic Congressional Ballot

For the three days ending November 1, Democrats enjoy a 49% to 43% lead on the Generic Ballot. A national survey of 1,913 Likely Voters found that 3% will vote for a third party candidate while 5% remain undecided (see crosstab results).

These numbers bounced around a bit in recent weeks but have stabilized in recent days. The three-day rolling average results showed Democrats with a 7-point advantage on the prior two releases.

A six or seven point popular vote victory on Tuesday would likely give the Democrats narrow control of Congress. However, as I have noted, a shift of just one or two percentage points in either direction could have a profound impact on the final outcome of Election 2018.

The national survey of 1,913 Likely Voters was conducted October 29-November 1, 2018 by and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the demographic profile of our sample). It has a +/-2.3 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Data released today showed that 76% of voters are confident the ballots will be properly counted next week. Voters have confidence in both paper ballots and electronic ballots. However, they are skeptical about mail-in ballots and smartphone voting.

While voters are generally confident about counting the votes, they are less comfortable with what the winners do after election day. Seventy percent (70%) believe elected officials use their position to help businesses that support them.

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Posted in Deeper Currents

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