Dems Chance To Win Senate Fading

At, we project a range of possible outcomes for the House and Senate contests. That’s because we really won’t have a good sense of turnout until the very last minute. So, we give estimates based upon what might be a baseline number to a good night for each party.

From late last year until today, we have consistently shown that a good night for Democrats would give them a narrow majority in the Senate.

Now, however, the North Dakota Senate race moved from Tilts Republican to Leans Republican. As a result, even a good night for the Democrats would only get them to a 50-50 split in the Senate. And, since Vice President Mike Pence can cast the tie-breaking vote, that would leave the Republicans in control.

While things can certainly change in the final two-and-a-half weeks of the campaign, the Democrats are more likely to lose seats in the Senate than to gain control. There are five toss-up races (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada) and all but Nevada are in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. If the Republicans win one of those races, they are assured of maintaining the status quo in the Senate. If they win two or more of the toss-ups, they will expand their majority.

On top of that, we now rate Montana as just tilting to the Democrats. If the GOP wins that race plus all the toss-ups, they would end up with a net gain of five seats and a 56-44 majority in the Senate. That would be a very good night for the Republicans.

While the Democratic prospects are fading in the Senate, they are looking good in the House. Nancy Pelosi’s party needs to win just 8 of 22 Toss-Up races to win control.

Posted in Deeper Currents

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