Democratic Primary Polling Schedule Surrounding the First Debate will be conducting a poll of Registered Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents starting Monday evening, June 24, at approximately 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Among many other questions, we will ask each respondent “Which of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for in a Democratic primary?” The list will include all candidates who have qualified for this week’s debates plus a few others.

We expect to complete between 850 and 900 interviews on this topic by noon Eastern on Wednesday, June 26. Results will be posted between 2:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Eastern on June 26. It is possible that we might initially release just the topline numbers at that time, with analysis and crosstabs posted no later than 8:00 p.m. Eastern that day. A link to the results will be posted on the home page at

These results will form the baseline for a debate tournament launched by PredictIt.

On Sunday, June 30, we will release results from a post-debate survey asking the same question. That survey will be conducted starting Friday evening, June 28, at approximately 7:00 p.m. We again expect to complete between 850 and 900 interviews on the topic and will finish by noon Eastern on Sunday June 30. Topline results from that survey will be posted at no later than 7:00 p.m. Eastern on June 30. Crosstabs and analysis may be released later that evening.

PredictIt will compare this survey with the baseline numbers to determine tournament outcomes.

In between the baseline survey and the survey used to determine tournament outcomes, may release additional information related to the Democratic Presidential Primary. That could include favorability ratings for candidates or possibly interim results from nightly tracking. We will finalize our plans and announce our anticipated release schedule prior to the first debate on Wednesday.

In addition to our public opinion polling, we measure the Social Media Support for each Democratic candidate.  Support is measured both in terms of volume of chatter and how positive or negative the chatter is about a particular candidate. New numbers are released by each morning at 4:30 a.m. Eastern.

If you want to participate in the PredictIt tournament, send the word “debate” to to register and receive more details.

As always, the field work for our surveys will be conducted by HarrisX (see Methodology).

Our previous survey of the Democratic Primary Field was conducted in late May.

Scott Rasmussen’s latest column suggested that “The Democratic Presidential Debates Will Shake Up the Race.”

Posted in Deeper Currents

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