Thursday Kavanaugh Update, Numbers Still Holding Steady

The drama surrounding recent allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh continue to have limited impact on public opinion.

Among those who are following the story at least a bit, 51% now want their Senator to confirm Kavanaugh. That’s up two points from a couple of days ago. However, any shift may be little more than statistical noise.

Before his confirmation hearings, 48% of voters wanted their Senator to confirm Kavanaugh. After the hearings, but before the accusations, 52% favored confirmation (see trends).  Keep in mind that the poll has a 3-point margin of error.

We will continue to track this and related data throughout the confirmation process (sign up for email updates).

Prior to Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings, 51% had a favorable opinion of the nominee. It had increased to 55% following the confirmation hearings and then fell to 48% immediately following the accusations.

Now, as of Thursday afternoon, the number with a favorable opinion of the nominee is back up to 53%. It is possible that perceptions of the judge softened a bit after the initial accusations and have since recovered. It is also possible that the changes are just movement within the margin of error. In terms of opinions about Kavanaugh directly, all shifting occurred primarily among those who do not have strong opinions of him.

Today, 24% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Judge while 22% have a Very Unfavorable view. Prior to the allegations, those figure were 22% and 18% (see trends).

Confirming the sense that little has changed, our daily tracking of the Generic Congressional Ball remains steady. Before the allegations were raised, the Democrats had an eight-point advantage. In the three days ending yesterday, that edge was seven points. For the three-days ending today, it’s a nine point edge for the Democrats (50% to 41%).

This latest survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted for ScottRasmussen.com on September 19-20, 2018 by HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

For clarity on the timing, our surveys are generally launched by 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time and completed by Noon Eastern Time the next day. This schedule allows for appropriate levels of participation from people in all time zones.

At the moment, 80% believe it is at least Somewhat Likely that Kavanaugh will be confirmed. That’s down slightly from 84% before the accusations. The number who believe he is Very Likely to be confirmed fell from 38% to 29%.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) are following the Kavanaugh news Very Closely. That’s up just a couple of points from earlier in the week.

Questions about Kavanaugh and his confirmation were asked of all voters except those who said they were not following the story at all.

The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Prior to Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings,  51% had a favorable opinion of the nominee.  That increased to 55% following the hearings and is down to 48% today. The shift occurred primarily among those who do not have strong opinions of the Kavanaugh.

All ScottRasmussen.com data is presented to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). See all of our polling data releases.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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