Seventy percent (70%) of voters nationwide say their midterm vote will be about President Trump. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that half of these voters would vote to express support for the president and half to express opposition.
Among those most likely to vote, the numbers are a bit higher. Seventy-six percent (76%) say their vote will be about President Trump. That includes 39% whose vote is intended as an expression of opposition and 37% who want to send a message of support.
Forty percent (40%) of Midwestern voters want to send a message of support while 31% hold the opposite view. In the west, 42% want to send a message of opposition while 29% are supportive. Northeastern voters are marginally more likely to express opposition while Southern voters are a bit more likely to send a message of support.
Rural voters want to be supportive while urban voters are opposed. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of suburban voters will send a message of opposition while 34% want to send a message of support (see question wording and crosstabs)
This survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted for ScottRasmussen.com on September 19-20, 2018 by HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Democrats currently have an 8-point advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot However, a plurality of voters believes that the GOP will retain a majority in the House of Representatives.
A race-by-race analysis shows that Democrats are already favored to win 207 seats. That would reflect a net gain of 12, more than half of what they need to win control. There are 20 toss-ups in play. Additionally, 12 more races are barely tilting in the GOP direction now. With a good Democratic turnout in November, they could flip as well.
This information is presented to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us and review all of our recent data releases).
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