52% Say Facebook May Go Out of Business Within 25 Years

Over the next 25 years, 87% of voters believe Facebook will have to deal with significant competition that challenges its dominance. A ScottRasmussen.com poll found that 52% believe it is at least somewhat likely that the social media giant will actually go out of business during that time. Nineteen percent (19%) consider that outcome to be Very Likely.

These expectations are found widely across partisan and demographic lines (see crosstab results).

Voters also overwhelmingly believe that Google, Amazon, and Apple will face significant competition over the coming quarter of a century. However, most believe those companies will survive. Just 26% believe Apple will go out of business, 23% say the same about Google, and 20% think Amazon will disappear.

Exploring the topic from another angle found that, in 25 years. 38% expect Amazon to be more powerful than it is today while 19% say less powerful. For Google, the numbers are 34% more powerful and 20% less powerful. Opinion is more evenly divided on Apple–30% more powerful, 26% less.

Other survey data shows that 55% of voters believe Facebook has too much power today.  However, just 21% believe the federal government should impose regulations on social media companies to ensure equal opportunities for all points of view.

The reluctance to embrace a political solution may stem partly from the recognition that companies like Facebook will face significant competition. Additionally, many perceive that political solutions to achieve admirable goals often do more harm than good. For example, 64% of voters believe it is more dangerous to let government to define hate speech than hate speech itself

It is often difficult to imagine how dominant large companies can fail quickly.

In 1967, General Motors sold 49 percent of all cars purchased in the United States. John Kenneth Galbraith, a Harvard professor of economics, wrote that GM’s position was so dominant that it could no longer be constrained by either consumers or competitors. Galbraith, who served in four presidential administrations, made that claim in a celebrated book, The New Industrial State. In his view, the auto firms would never compete with each other because they shared a common interest in soaking the consumer by raising prices.

Eleven years later, Galbraith updated the book and repeated his claim that no other auto company would be foolish enough to take on GM. Why? “Everyone knows that the survivor of such a contest would not be the aggressor but General Motors.”  The auto giant’s market share was still a remarkable 46 percent at that point. It never again reached such lofty heights. In fact, GM’s share of the market declined for 29 of the next 36 years, eventually leading it into bankruptcy and a government bailout. It went from selling 46 percent of all cars in 1978 to 35 percent a decade later, 29 percent a decade after that, and just 17 percent in 2014. Eventually, of course, the once dominant company filed for bankruptcy and had to be bailed out by the federal government.

ScottRasmussen.com releases new public opinion data every day relating to topics in the news and other items of interest. Please sign up to receive the latest data and insights each day via email.

We also provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).

Please follow our work on TwitterFacebook, and YouTube.

The national survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted March 20-21, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

Scott's Newsletter
Sign up for Scott's newsletter and get his political insight delivered right to your inbox!