If Democrats win majority control of the House in November, 39% of all voters believe they will vote to impeach President Trump. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 25% consider impeachment unlikely and 36% are not sure.
If their team wins, most Democrats (51%) expect a vote to impeach the president. Twenty-three percent (23%) say it’s unlikely and 26% are not sure.
Among Republicans and Independents, just 31% consider impeachment likely (see question wording and crosstabs).
This survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted for ScottRasmussen.com on September 27-28, 2018 by HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The questions concerning impeachment were asked of half the respondents using a split sample approach. For these questions, the statistical margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
If Republicans retain control of the House, 18% of voters believe they will vote to impeach the president.
Democrats currently hold a nine-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
A race-by-race analysis shows that Democrats are already favored to win 208 seats. That would reflect a net gain of 13, more than half of what they need. To win a majority, they would also need to win 10 of the are 19 toss-ups in play. Additionally, 12 more races are barely tilting in the GOP direction now. With a good Democratic turnout in November, they could flip as well.
ScottRasmussen.com presents this data to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us and review all of our recent data releases).
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Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).