Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say they will definitely vote against President Trump in 2020. That number almost matches the president’s job approval rating which has held steady for more than six months around the 46% level. Like the approval rating, the latest ScottRasmussen.com national survey shows that the number committed to voting against the president has remained stable since March.
If these two numbers remain steady throughout 2020, this pair of numbers suggests that we could see another very close election.
The survey also found that swing voters would be more likely to vote for the president if Democrats nominate a progressive candidate rather than a centrist. Thirty-six percent (36%) expect the Democrats to nominate a progressive candidate while 23% expect a more centrist option. Forty-one percent (41%) are not sure. Compared to our March survey, the expectations of a progressive candidate have declined five points. The number who expect to see a conservative candidate has grown by seven.
Currently, Joe Biden leads in the race for the Democratic nomination (see daily polling updates on the race). He is considered one of the more moderate candidates in the race. As the Democratic campaign has heated up, the number of voters believing President Trump will be re-elected has increased significantly.
If the Democrats nominate a very progressive Democrat who embraces Socialism and the Green New Deal. By a 46% to 23% margin, uncommitted voters say such a nominee would make them more likely to vote for the president.
On the other hand, if the Democrats nominate a centrist candidate who embraces America’s capitalist system and rejects progressive policies like the Green New Deal, the president doesn’t benefit as much. In that case, 39% of uncommitted voters would be more likely to vote for Trump and 32% for the Democrat.
In both cases, the benefit for the president is somewhat smaller than it was in March.
See full question wording and crosstab results.
We also provide daily updates on the president’s job approval and the generic congressional ballot along with regular updates on the economy, health care, immigration, Congress, ratings of Congressional leaders, Election 2020, the Democratic Primaries, Trust in Government, and which party voters trust on key issues. It’s all part of our mission to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us).
The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted July 31-August 1, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and a Demographic Profile of the Sample). Results from the full sample have +/-3.1 Margin of Sampling Error with a 95% level of confidence.
Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).