Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters nationwide now expect the Democrats to win control of the House in November’s election. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 37% think Republicans will win. These results mark a shift from a week ago when Republicans were picked to win by a 40% to 35% margin. The GOP was also favored by a plurality of voters two weeks ago.
Among those most likely to vote, 43% pick the Democrats and 38% the Republicans.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republican voters expect their team to win. That’s unchanged from last week. However, Democratic voters are now a bit more confident: 71% expect victory. That’s up 4 points from a week ago. Among Independent voters, Democrats now have a five point edge in expectations. Last week, the GOP had an 11-point edge among these voters (see question wording and crosstabs).
Democrats need to pick up a net of 23 seats to win a majority in the House. To accomplish that goal, most analysts believe they would have to win the nationwide popular vote by five to seven percentage points. Currently, the ScottRasmussen.com Generic Ballot polling shows Democrats with an nine-point advantage. Other polling shows similar results.
This survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted for ScottRasmussen.com on September 27-28, 2018 by HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
A race-by-race analysis shows that Democrats are already favored to win 208 seats. That would reflect a net gain of 13, more than half of what they need. There are 19 toss-ups in play. Additionally, 12 more races are barely tilting in the GOP direction now. With a good Democratic turnout in November, they could flip as well.
Looking to the Senate, 40% of voters expect Republicans to retain control. Thirty-five percent (35%) expect the Democrats to win the majority there. Those results are more in line with the conventional wisdom. See our race-by-race analysis for the Senate.
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