Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Registered Voters nationwide expect the Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives when the voting stops next week. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 36% disagree and think the Republicans will hang on for victory while 26% are not sure.Democrats will emerge victorious while 22% are not sure.
We have asked this question seven times this year and this is the first time a plurality picked the Democrats to win. The difference is that confidence among Republican voters is down a bit. Seventy-one percent (71%) of the GOP faithful think their team will win, down from a peak of 80%. Democratic confidence is now at 72%, the first time they’ve topped the GOP (see question wording and crosstab results).
Last week, among all voters, Republicans were favored by a 40% to 37% margin.
Most political analysts expect the Democrats to win a majority. Currently, the ScottRasmussen.com race-by-race analysis shows 31 House races are highly competitive (either pure toss-ups or just tilting to one of the parties). Democrats need to win 11 of those 31 to take control. On the Generic Congressional Ballot, the Democrats have a 7-point lead among the most likely voters.
Earlier surveys found that voters and pundits agreed that Republicans were likely to keep control of the Senate. Last week, Republicans were favored by a 46% to 31% margin. Now, however, just 38% believe the GOP will keep the Senate and 35% think Democrats will take over. Republican confidence in keeping the Senate has fallen ten points to 74%. Democratic confidence that their team will win increased four to 66%.
This national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 21-22, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology and the Demographic profile of our sample). The Margin of Error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
In the past, voter expectations have often been a good indicator of election outcomes. Currently, though, Republican confidence in keeping the House and Democratic confidence about winning the Senate conflict with the expectations of most political analysts. The most likely explanation at the moment is that both sides are viewing the election through partisan blinders. It’s also possible that these partisan attitudes are reinforced by media commentary presenting the best case analysis for their team.
On the other hand, it’s possible that voters sense something is going on that the pundits and analysts haven’t seen yet. If that’s the case, momentum at the moment seems to be heading in the Democratic direction.
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