Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters nationwide now expect the Democrats to win control of the House in November’s election. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 37% think Republicans will win. These results mark are little changed from a week ago. However, two weeks ago, Republicans were picked to win by a 40% to 35% margin.
However, just 20% of voters are following news about the midterm elections very closely.
Among those most likely to vote, 44% pick the Democrats and 39% the Republicans.
Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republican voters expect their team to win and 71% of Democratic voters are confident of victory (see question wording and crosstabs).
As for the Senate, 40% expect the GOP to retain their majority while 33% think the Democrats will gain control.
This survey of 1,001 Registered Voters was conducted on October 3-4, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a leading research firm specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Related data shows that 29% of voters believe their representative in Congress is more conservative than they are. Twenty-four percent (24%) say more liberal. Sign up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update to receive daily email insights and analysis.
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