34% Believe Kavanaugh Effect Will Help GOP; 33% Believe It Will Help Dems

Over the past week, 66% of all voters talked about Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation process with family, friends, neighbors, or co-workers.

A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 48% engaged in discussions with an equal mix of people who agreed and disagreed with their perspective. Another 44% discussed the topic with mostly or only people who agreed with them. Only 8% discussed Kavanaugh’s confirmation mostly or completely with people who disagreed.

As for it’s impact, 34% believe the political battle will help Republicans; 33% think it will help Democrats; and 33% think it will have no impact.

Republicans, by a 63% to 12% margin, believe it will help their team. Democrats, by a 58% to 16% margin, believe it will help them. Nearly half (48%) of Independents believe it will have no impact. The remaining Independents are evenly divided (see question wording and crosstab results).

The national survey of 1,000 Registered Voters was conducted October 9-10, 2018 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a 3.1 percentage point Margin of Error with a 95% level of confidence.

My latest book, The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not, notes just 40% of what we see comes in through our eyes. The other 60% we fill in with what we expect to see. That certainly appears to be the case on everything surrounding the Kavananaugh confirmation. Our daily tracking of the confirmation showed people quickly settled into partisan camps.

It is possible, perhaps even likely, that the real impact of the Kavanaugh battle was to remind people that politics is a team sport. By strengthening partisan loyalties, it probably helps Republicans in key Senate races because they are being held in Republican friendly states. On the other hand, it could help Democrats in key House races where the partisan geography is more favorable to Democrats.

All data presented by ScottRasmussen.com is to enhance the public dialogue through data-driven analysis that explores the underlying currents of public opinion (read About Us). Receive the latest insights each day by signing up for Scott Rasmussen’s Morning Update

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).


Posted in Poll Results

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