15% of Voters Up For Grabs

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters usually or always vote for a Democrat while 29% usually or always vote for a Republican. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 26% of voters say they vote for both Republican and Democratic candidates.

However, a deeper look at the data shows 6% of voters consider themselves to be Republicans who vote for both parties and 5% are Democrats equally willing to cross partisan lines. This leaves just 15% who consider themselves to be politically independent and routinely split their votes (see crosstab results).

This data confirms the common assumption that about 85% of voters already know which party they will vote for in the next election. While it is possible for either political party to reach voters from the other side’s base, that is typically a challenging task.

The survey also found another potential pool of votes for each party to consider. Nine percent (9%) of Registered Voters say they usually don’t vote. These potential voters are more likely to have lower incomes, less education, and live in rural areas.

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The national survey of 5,015 Registered Voters was conducted December 30, 2018 to January 4, 2019 by ScottRasmussen.com and HarrisX, a polling company specializing in online surveys (see Methodology). It has a statistical margin of error of approximately 1.4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Neither Scott Rasmussen nor ScottRasmussen.com has any relationship with Rasmussen Reports® (see About Us).

Posted in Poll Results

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